Open 627: Mexican Standoff [endgame]

[davesaz]

In a bit of a cough medicine induced haze, but
VOTE: TOWNIE247

[davesaz]

Also your sucking up to Titus is disgusting

What post were you classifying as sucking up?

[davesaz]

Also your sucking up to Titus is disgusting

What post were you classifying as sucking up?

you feeling better now dave?

Nah, I'm coughing so hard it feels like things are moving around in there.

[davesaz]

Oh wait.
I forgot to respond to this:

14

kuroi -2 +3 =8 -11 =12 -==14 =39 -51 =77 | =51 =64
Aneninen R -4 ==6 -7 | =11 -14
Smudger ==3 +9 -10 | +14
acryon -3 v4 u119 R =31 | =11 =14
Persivul +=2 -10 R +316
pisskop -1 ==2 -13
plotinus = +1 +7 +8 -11 =12 +13 -=14 -443 | -577 -581 v626 =648
radiantcowbells =3 -5 -11 ✝

My answer must be this:

Playerlist

1. Aneninen – Alkari Entropy
   
2. xtoxm – Ethylene Banana
   
3. Burning Crystal – Chenjesu Discussion
   
4. Kop – Coffeetje Fertility
   
5. Extrapolated Eagle – Juxtapose Experiment
   
6. smudger – Cornelius Immunity
   
7. davesaz – Dazed and Hemlock
   
8. Persivul – Eki-Eki Raspberry
   
9. acryon – Mythical Okaleaf
   
10. TOWNIE247 – Guidebooked Muffin
    
11. KainTepes – Lasombra Agitator
    
12. Mad King Ashnard – Mrrshan Decontamination
    
13. KuroiXHF – Technocratic Sleepover

Some kind of free association thing?
I'll assume for the sake of harmonious interactions that this isn't any kind of code.

[davesaz]

You about to tell me elyse was too early as well? Yes my read here was based off a singular post. But it was also based off of previous experience with the player posting it, the perceived emotions behind it and the circumstances surrounding it. In addition, I didn't say the read was strong, although at this point it is one of my strongest.

Quantity of posts should not be a hindrance in your ability to read.

Which read are you talking about here?

[davesaz]

So far, Kop looks town compared to places I've seen him as scum before.

The naked voting could be a town tactic. I won't spoil it by going into why.

Pedit: well at least you got to the 2nd post in time.

[davesaz]

Yes, also didn't like the reason for voting EE..I don't know why two of you have sheeped it. EE has been one of the better posters so far.

Titus wrote ~Titus under his post so I called him Titus!!

What was this in response to? It doesn't seem to go with the post you quoted and I wasn't able to guess from context what you were replying to.

Regarding using quotes on this forum, the Q" button quotes the post, and Q+ adds the post to a list of posts to be quoted later. So if you use the Q+ button it can mysteriously include that post in a later reply to the thread, thinking you meant to quote it. Till you get the hang of it, using the preview button can show what your post will look like and you can edit out the unnecessary quotes that way.

[davesaz]

Using activity as an indicator of alignment is a very bad idea here. I have seen scum be among the most active posters in a game, and the least active are more often town.

[davesaz]

Hmm, not sure what to make of the contradiction. First Titus is town, then Burning Crystal is scum, then you confirm that the read off a single post was the read on Burning Crystal (which is the same as the town read on Titus?).

Titus seems like town based on reaction to Kaintepes.

I don't like burnings reaction.

VOTE: Burning Crystal

You about to tell me elyse was too early as well? Yes my read here was based off a singular post. But it was also based off of previous experience with the player posting it, the perceived emotions behind it and the circumstances surrounding it. In addition, I didn't say the read was strong, although at this point it is one of my strongest.

Quantity of posts should not be a hindrance in your ability to read.

Which read are you talking about here?

Burning Crystal

[davesaz]

Yes you offended me but screw it it doesn't matter. Apparently I'm not allowed to have feelings this game. I'm not going on vacation angry, but I would like to know what on earth everyone thinks I'm trying to distract from. The fact that a lot of people thought I was town when I was scum?

Comments about your attitude are really comments about the perception of your attitude from your behavior. I agree nobody can really know what's going on in your head, but we can see what's showing up in the thread. If it helps you to distance the appearance from reality, just stick a "it looks like" in front of any comments you read about attitude. Just my advice FWIW, I know it might be hard to mentally apply that filter but it's what I do. Not always successfully...

[davesaz]

I see a lot of posturing from KainTepes about being aggressive, and that's good, because evil players aren't aggressive, and that's bad, so he needs to be aggressive.
Looks like an act, which is scummy to me.
VOTE: KainTepes

[davesaz]

@MOD My vote is on KainTepes

No, it's not "low hanging fruit". Yes, I do believe that scum might try to hide by "acting town". No reason to think newb scum would do that any less than experienced. The first advice you see if you look up how to play scum is to look town. What better way to do that than to tell people what town looks like (to you) and then try to look that way. What makes it an act is how the talk about being aggressive doesn't go with the actions.

[davesaz]

Someone explain the reasons for scum reading me?

You're going off because someone said your attitude was scummy. Am I getting that right, or is this really about something else?

[davesaz]

I find it odd how we're essentially a counterwagon to EE at this point.

How would you describe the composition of your wagon (back when you posted this).
You've been strangely quiet.

[davesaz]

people can be wrong but it feels like he is lying just to come up with a reason to vote me

i dont know how to explain it but it STRONGLY feels like that

many others voted me but I didnt feel the way like it did with dave

You are lampshading, but not following through. Saying you are going to scumhunt, but doing nothing to actually hunt scum. This is a scumtell, I have caught both new and experienced players that way. It isn't lying on my part to point this out. I'm not misrepresenting your actions either. You're saying that aggressive people are town, and you're aggressive. But it is all bark and no bite. You don't seem to be examining players actions from a point of view of figuring out their alignment.

It is possible I'm wrong about your alignment. The best way to convince me, and others, is to actually do the things you're saying town should do.
What do you think about the people who replaced out?
Do you think Extrapolated Eagle was truly upset, or was it an act to derail the suspicion on him?
Eagle said he was upset with Acryon, not Aneninen. Did you see Acryon do anything to justify that position?
Do you have any opinion about the people who seem to have quick reads on others they have past experience with? Especially the ones who claim to get a read off just a couple posts?

[davesaz]

I'm actually in agreement. Some people look better than others, but all of them have a good poker reads.

I'd be interested to hear what you mean by this. Is it based more on initial content that people post, or on the responses? Or something else you're seeing or not seeing?

[davesaz]

My Anen read is based on not liking a handful of his comments combined with a healthy dose of meta. Things like voting and unvoting Pers in #261 i'm not really buying, just looks to me like he's trying to fake stream of consciousness. I don't have a scum meta on Anen but I do have a good amount of town, and his play here is very different to what I was expecting from town-Anen..So it follows that this is more likely to be his scum play. Certainly good enough for me to support for D1.

Do you have other examples? Did you look at timing of the post that caused Anen to unvote?

[davesaz]

Dave's jump on Kain is bad.

Bad in what way? Context leads me to believe you mean "incorrect" here but it would be good for you to clarify what you really mean.

Who are you scum reading and why?

[davesaz]

Any thoughts on KT's supporters? Not looking for associations, more just your thoughts on whether any of them seem more or less genuine.

[davesaz]

Nah, if he's town I don't want to waste time on him. Someone's in need of an IC, I have no qualms about helping move things along.
And if he's scum, then how better to find that out than to hand him a little rope.

[davesaz]

I suspect Persivul a little for replacing out right after he got HEATED with EagleExtrapolated,,, but i dont know how to explain the feeling,,

More like this. There's no whining. You're lying out how you feel, which posts make you feel like that, and stating that you don't know why.

I don't agree with this post, but I can meet you half way and give you some time. If you go back to yelling and screaming and whining, I will vote you.

Also Anen, you're being a bit selective.

[davesaz]

@KT big letters and the way you write draws more attention to you than what you're saying. If you're doing this intentionally in order to get by as scum, fine, if not please change your posting style. I'm having a hard time taking this seriously.

Another fine example of coaching.

[davesaz]

I was pointing out the folly of Aneninen's vote on me, supposedly for bussing and then coaching KT.

[davesaz]

That's two replacements with a single meh post each.

[davesaz]

Also Anen, you're being a bit selective.

Why?

Exactly. Why are you being selective? Others are "coaching" KT and you don't seem to care about them.
Furthermore compare my activity to others.

Hooraay! I've started getting reads!

Was your previous activity

not

based on reads? It certainly seemed to me like you had opinions, but now you're admitting that they were based on nothing?

[davesaz]

No it's not. SI joined the site 3 days ago, and that is the only post he made anywhere other than a signup. Absence/Flaking isn't scummy.

Thank you for being the voice of reason on this.

Join date is immaterial when you consider the possibility of an alt.

There is something else that makes flaking non alignment-indicative. Flaking on a replace for a true new player could indicate a role the player isn't ready to handle. On the other hand, if it's an alt created specifically to play this game then flaking could indicate disappointment at a boring role, by a player who does not want to get a reputation for flaking (hence using an alt). Since the possible results include both exciting and boring roles, the flake is immaterial.

Spoiler: not game related

On an aside, I'd support reporting it if it's an alt strategically dropping boring roles. I'm generally disgusted with the culture of replacing out. Yes RL can be a bitch and there does need to be a safety valve, but people should also learn how to play the roles as they come.

[davesaz]

Eight what time zone?

In a game which is known to have at least one town PR and the possibility of more, it is in town's best interest to choose a lynch with at least a couple days left on the timer.
If you're gonna make a case, please do so fairly quickly. That's a general statement, not limited to the 2-3 people who have content "coming soon".

[davesaz]

I can see those things and the conclusion does not seem unreasonable. Though I do have a question, how much of that is dependent on a Kop - KT scum team?

Any thoughts on Aneninen?

[davesaz]

Um. I look for scum and not scum. It's freakin binary, mate.

Right, but we decode who's scum and who's not by looking at everyone - after we look at everyone.

Where are you in that process?

[davesaz]

VOTE: Kop

1. Ineffective pushes on new people and flakes
2. Eagle's case was pretty good
3. Quote wall defense when Eagle started making points on him
4. Not paying attention to most of the player list

[davesaz]

OK, I double checked to verify the result. I'm convinced you ARE a WW, but also a 3 Mafia (GF + 2Goons) would know there's no PGO.

Is this supposed to be logic proving that they know your PGO claim is fake?

[davesaz]

Replying to Almost50:
OK, just a yes would have been sufficient. Obv town even without the extra info.

I thought RC's activity seemed way off the norm compared both to games I've played where he was town and where he was scum with me. I saw and immediately agreed with the theory that it indicated either an attempt to avoid getting NK'd or low investment from expecting to draw a NK, though I did not make the leap that this implies a WW alignment.

[davesaz]

If we leave Mad King and they're WW, they get NK'd anyway as I see it. But then we need to find someone other than me to lynch, and while I don't mind being scumread (more accurately not being universally townread) I don't want town to lose my crime fighting prowess. On the chance that the setup isn't one of the WW setups, maybe we go ahead and lynch them anyway.

[davesaz]

Town lost that game because they misread my playstyle for scum. It will keep happening until people figure out my meta.
In the meantime I was right about who the scum were and a town who listen to me typically win, so that's plenty scum hunting powers, thanks.

[davesaz]

VOTE: Mad King Ashnard

[davesaz]

@Titus : I don't think it is wise to elaborate further.

The foundation of a scumread was there already.
This looks like a caught for wrong reasons reaction.

[davesaz]

Don't overlook the original case, which came a long time before the fakeclaim trap.
MKA is uncharacteristically quiet, for either of the heads to be town.

I will also take this time to note that KainTepes has gone totally silent. If he is scum, I bet he got an earful in daychat. (read the opening posts)

Aneninen's "case" on me was that I was scum because I was coaching KT. This implies that Anen also thought I was bussing KT, since I was "coaching" in the guise of "I think you're scum, but if you are town here's what you should do". Why would scum me both bus and coach a partner in the same post? I have a weak spot on scum reading those who make bad cases against me, but I can't reconcile Anen's read list as being genuine either.

This game is in rough shape, too many replacements who are not pulling weight, too many people going really shallow on their reads.

Also to repeat, I don't want to be a universal town read, but we must pick someone else to lynch. Unless you want a panic at the last minute.

[davesaz]

I expected a different role, which would have ruled out PGO as a possibility. Look more carefully at setup 12. (pedit: ninja'd)

If he is a bodyguard, I'd prefer we not lose that role

. It's the only sliver of a chance to get more than one openly revealed cop result.

[davesaz]

VOTE: Aneninen
I have a reason for wanting the bodyguard to be preserved. You really need to pick another target. Immediately.

[davesaz]

Oh, you're back. That's good, or at least it's less bad than being absent.
Scum reads?

[davesaz]

I point out why neither of Almost50's claims can be true and that's useless and not scum hunting?
I ask questions to try to sort people and just because you can't see where I am going with it, it's entirely worthless. Do I have to be "going somewhere" to ask questions?

Did you read the stuff in between?

[davesaz]

Stuff from Almost50? Yes.

No the stuff between when you last posted and now.

[davesaz]

Less than two days till deadline and fluff is a thing?
I guess it's important to have fun.

[davesaz]

I see that my "pay attention" vote was paid attention to.
UNVOTE:

Spoiler: longquote

VOTE: Anenien

Where did this come from?

I could but my obvtown reads are pushing Anenenien. Tex is not likely to give us reaction, so he's more of a lynch if there's nothing better to do.
~Titus

Davesaz as obvtown?
You actually voted for him in 442. Dafuq.

Seriously, my scumreads aren't getting traction. I'm not explicitly townreading Anenien. We need wagons. Too many chefs spoils the broth.

Dave and acryon have been pretty townie lately and I see where a strong case can be made on Almost. I'm getting quite a few townreads. IF you want me to follow you, you'll need to convince me that either a) texcat is scum or b) you're townier.

Townies misreading players. Have you ever heard of this?

First, the hasty reaction with unplanned reaction fish plus Almost reaching out to immediately try to fix his blunders. Dave seems to be on the same page and trying to create wifom around who Almost should protect tonight. While they lack subtlety, the motivation is clearly townie.

Where did Davesaz post that?

7 posts apart, both signed as ~Titus, and I haven't posted in between. What's the deal here??

Good one, Almost!

Context Almost.
I was meaning a strong TOWN case can be made on you. The second paragraph in the second post is talking about how townie you are.
I don't care what you accept as a slot RC. I am nullreading Texcat. No amount of whining and bitching will change that. You aren't having a valid push on Texcat. You are refusing to provide a reason for your push at all.
~Titus

Okay.
But.
Townreading Almost doesn't make you town.
As for TexCat.
I've seen her mislynched on Day1. She has a gamestyle which, somehow, acts as a mislynch magnet. Therefore, I'm not sold on the case against her. However, it's possible that Burning Crystal's either protecting or Whiteknighting her.

VOTE: Texcat
Now

That's what I wanted

.
I will ride this out and see where it goes for awhile if you're willing.
*peace offering*
~Titus

What did you want?
What's that *peace offering* pigeon poop?

It looks like you're just pissed I am trying to bury the hatchet with someone I am scumreading.

It is to you.
Can you walk me through why are you are scumreading us?

Bad phrasing. I meant to say I am used to scumreading.
I had solid town reads on your wagon. If I was scumreading you, I wouldn't be trying so hard to bury the hatchet. I would just vote you.
~Titus

Even if I'm an ESL player, mixing up "I am scumreading" and "I am used to scumreading" is not a thing I can buy. Using that expression for a ...hydra slot?

Eh. I'm not good with words. Sorry, Titus. Friends?

What sort of puppet show is going on?!
I thought this game is about scumhunting, not friendmaking.

Let's test Texcat v Anen v MKA and see who jumps where. Pick one?

How to Manipulate Players, Chapter 4.

I'm ok with this one
VOTE: texcat

Dafuq.
Now I'm almost sure TexCat is a planned mislynch. I know if her wagon reaches lynch, I'll look terrible, but f-cking don't care. Gain is bigger than loss in that case.

VOTE: Burning Crystal
Because slowly but firmly, they are getting in control to manipulate the whole town.
Maybe one of the earlier major wagons were on their partner, but we can check that later if I'm right. Some other "reads" of them are Whiteknighting, I guess.

This time, I'm not going to get blinded by thinking that someone who comes around to me easily is town.
Comparing Aneninen who is willing to let me live but still uncertain about my alignment to Burning Crystal who is willing to call me obvtown after I say the bodyguard needs to live, I'm more inclined to trust Aneninen. I'm also quite worried about BC's horse trading. It's almost like they're talking up a compromise in thread so as to appear like it isn't coordinated off thread, but I have seen Titus plan a manipulation and this looks similar.

VOTE: Burning Crystal

Note: I have said this in other games and will repeat it here. Being west coast US, I often have to go "last" in the posting order. This means that others, especially those in Europe and east coast US, get to see and respond to a lot of posts while I am sleeping. Coming to the same conclusion can be sheeping, but often it is merely seeing the same thing as much as 8 hours later. End PSA.

[davesaz]

Sorting your slot is going to take you producing a bit more than just a reads list.

[davesaz]

Am I the only one who thinks that KT is an alt and is doing this on purpose??

No opinion on the alt vs new question.

No doubt that it's on purpose. Torn between "scum trying to skate by" vs. "alignment neutral attention seeker". I had that thought right from the very beginning and events since then have not done much to change it.

[davesaz]

If you want to emphasize a word without typing it in all caps, there is the option of using the

bold

or

italic

tags. Those will not annoy people as much as all caps.
In the reply window (not quick reply) you even have the option of typing your reply first, then hilight the words to bold and hitting the bold button at the top left.

Other than not posting much, what about xtoxm makes you think he is mafia?

Regarding Almost50, while the general case theory of "mafia being interested in setup due to finding out who to kill" is valid, certain town roles like bodyguard or doctor do need to be able to guess at who has a role in order to know who to protect. Furthermore the techique that Almost50 claims to have been using, "fake claiming a role to get mafia to react", is a valid technique. It is arguable about whether it is a

good

technique, but there is little doubt that it is something that players might do to scumhunt.

Also I will take this opportunity to point out that KT is beetlejuicing here. (If you're not familiar with the term, it means showing up and posting when someone mentions your name)

[davesaz]

I had hoped aninenien, kuroi, xtoxm and others could chip in and say who they would like as a candidate between BC,

texcat

.

Nice quote. It would be enormously helpful if you would include commentary on why you quoted it.

[davesaz]

I would ask why the choice is being limited to those two.
As for my answer, I'm already voting one of them...

[davesaz]

KT - check Mad King's username vs. what you wrote.

[davesaz]

At the time I voted BC, I was thinking that their read changes were slightly fake, and I bought into the idea of their posting being manipulative.
I'm willing to consider Kuroi as a lynch candidate because the case against BC is pretty weak. But I want to reread before deciding.

[davesaz]

OK, I did that re-read, and Kuroi's ISO is devoid of meaningful scum hunting. I noted a consistent failure to take a real stand on anyone other than BC (opportunistic use of biggest wagon) and Almost50 (opportunistic use of a technically questionable fakeclaim). I don't see a town motivation here, and tons of posts which fit scum.

The way that the BC wagon stalled at 5 makes me nervous, as scum would have had plenty of chance to push it over the top unless they're already on there. But I do also see respectable scum hunters who question the wagon. I think we'll get a lot of information out of the day's events.

UNVOTE: Burning Crystal
VOTE: KuroiXHF

[davesaz]

That's immaterial to the lynch right now.

[davesaz]

Block type actions (like JK) happen before kills, in Natural_Action_Resolution. This is a general statement and may or may not be reflected in a given night, depending on whatever other actions may happen.

VOTE: texcat
This may be

L-1

but that's based only on someone else previously reporting a L-2, and may not be correct.

[davesaz]

I'm here, but it's a heavy workday and also my daughter's birthday.
Gonna need some old-fashioned scumhunting here. That will take time that I don't have right now, will have to be later in the evening.

Furthermore it's a heavy work week, I'm hosting some big meetings.

LA Wed-Fri

[davesaz]

Furthermore it's a heavy work week, I'm hosting some big meetings.

LA Wed-Fri

[davesaz]

Well, it was fairly easy to keep up with reading, but not so easy to keep up with analysis.
I think I'll have to re-read the whole day, and look at yesterday's wagons too.

[davesaz]

Missing kill?

[davesaz]

If there are two scum teams I would not be at all surprised if Aneninen and BC are both scum on opposing teams.
Trying to figure out who the partners would be in that scenario.

[davesaz]

If there are two scum teams I would not be at all surprised if Aneninen and BC are both scum on opposing teams.
Trying to figure out who the partners would be in that scenario.

Do you think the missing kill comment was a scumslip?

I see BC setting up a narrative of them being JK'd by a suspicious Kuroi as the explanation of a missing kill. But I question why that would be mentioned by town, since there is no evidence of a 2nd kill. Even in a MB scenario, from a town perspective all it would do is tell scum why their kill failed. On the other hand, if there are 2 scum teams it's a high probability that both teams have a RB (WW roles mimic Mafia roles in the setup and mafia get a RB in one of the weak BG setups). In that environment, the narrative makes a dandy reaction test to find the other team's RB.

[davesaz]

I think we're agreeing that it's scummy.

[davesaz]

VOTE: Burning Crystal

[davesaz]

In this case a good night's sleep had more to do with it, but appreciate the attempt.
BTW, got any reads?

[davesaz]

Ooh, KT reads. That gives us something which might be interesting to talk about.

Please point to some specific things that you find scummy, that is to say examples of things your scum reads are posting and why you think those posts make them scum.

[davesaz]

If there are two scum teams I would not be at all surprised if Aneninen and BC are both scum on opposing teams.
Trying to figure out who the partners would be in that scenario.

Do you think the missing kill comment was a scumslip?

I see BC setting up a narrative of them being JK'd by a suspicious Kuroi as the explanation of a missing kill. But I question why that would be mentioned by town, since there is no evidence of a 2nd kill. Even in a MB scenario, from a town perspective all it would do is tell scum why their kill failed. On the other hand, if there are 2 scum teams it's a high probability that both teams have a RB (WW roles mimic Mafia roles in the setup and mafia get a RB in one of the weak BG setups). In that environment, the narrative makes a dandy reaction test to find the other team's RB.

No comments on this?

[davesaz]

From other people, that is... It got a reply from acryon, but open question -- what town suggests a missing kill was because they got JK'd?

[davesaz]

Hey Ranger,

This has basically been the entire game.

And I'm sick of it.

~tn5421

You guys so fucking started it.
I was perfectly happy to not go near her for a while until YOU came in and voted us after Titus townread me.

Reads?

[davesaz]

<trimmed chilledtea posts that talked about KT as town>
he is VERY inconsistent,, feels like he wants to redirect the DAY today,, so he suddenly scumread me after townreading me for a long time,,

Changing your read is something that people do as both town and scum. If you look at his posts after he changed his read, what things look like he's trying to manipulate people?

[davesaz]

Any scum lynch is good. But if KT is town his lynch gives us next to nothing. It's better than losing a PR but worse than losing someone whose reads are trustworthy.

[davesaz]

KT is my top scum read actually. I think all his posts are meant to distract and shed doubts.

I had this thought right from the start, but there were enough other possible explanations that I was reluctant to place much weight on it.
It would be a gambit of monumental proportions to do this on purpose, but on the other hand it just might work.

[davesaz]

@Almost,

Me being protected is also frankly pretty easy to deduce.

First, Kuroi likely jailed his scumread.
Jailing a bodyguard claim in this setup is stupid, like I mentioned.
So, I was jailed.

There's a missing kill (which I explained above)

That leaves either a) both scum kills shot the jailor or b) I was shot and protected

Both scum shooting the jailor with terrible reads makes zero sense.

Thus, I was shot and protected.

Except if we have WW then both teams have RB's. One of them could have RB'd the other team's killer.
Or you could be scum, and jailed, but you knew it was coming so your partner killed Kuroi.

The lack of a kill + probable MB + Kuroi scumreading you and presumably jailing you does

not

clear you as town.
I could imagine a newer player making that logic mistake, but a hydra of two very experienced players?

[davesaz]

I'm saying I'm town reading BC AND Anen and do not wish for either to be lynched today.

Any particular reason you're town reading Aneninen?

[davesaz]

The only reason this is an issue is people were arguing that my intelligence was a scumslip.

Is that just Aneninen, or was there someone else?

[davesaz]

I've had thoughts of BC as town for quite a while, but needed to get a better handle on the motivation for setup talk.

VOTE: Aneninen
I was going to wait for answers but then realized I'm on the tail of the day plus I might be busy later tonight.
Fireworks are more fun anyway.

[davesaz]

Almost's vote made it

L-1

.
I think I missed something. What's the case on Kop?

[davesaz]

18 hours left. I am available to hammer if we stay on this course. Willing to stick with Anen if enough are willing to go there.

If Kop is town it's a counter wagon to ensure we don't have either BC or Anen as the top wagon coming up to deadline. Can't tell for sure which one he'd be the CW to, but I still have Aneninen as more likely scum than BC. Not sure if scum are responsible for starting the wagon, or if they're the ones piling on to make it viable as a compromise. We'll find out a lot.

Entirely possible that Kop is indeed scum and some of us finally seeing BC as possible town is what got us here.

There is still a chance that BC is lying about the thing that makes me town read them. We'll see what happens...

[davesaz]

I'm thinking that I want to review MKA's reads before proceeding.

[davesaz]

I'm thinking that I want to review MKA's reads before proceeding.

Keep in mind they apparently didn't know Kuroi claimed jailer and were essentially absent for much of the day yesterday.

Someone thought they were kill worthy.

[davesaz]

Is 1117 the right post?

[davesaz]

It is not setup 10, because the setup does contain a RB. We either have setup 12 which is 4:2:2 remaining with a cop, tracker, mafia rb, goon, ww rb, ww goon, 2 citizens; or setup 5 which is 6:2 with cop, pgo, mafia rb, mafia follower, 4 citizens. I'm nearly certain it is 12 -- the only ways it could be 5 would be if Almost tried to BG scum or if Almost ran into the PGO (in which case we are probably lost due to the 1-shot).

Whether the remaining PR is tracker or PGO, we do not want a claim.

I'll have to compare Ranger's analysis to actual events. She's either spot on or it's a remarkable feat of misdirection.

[davesaz]

BC went first top of this page. But why does it matter?

[davesaz]

You tracked xtoxm, and got that he visited both me and Almost50? Or only that he visisted me?

[davesaz]

That implies that his action was a kill, unless he's allowed to perform both actions. Most of the time the answer is no, but it's worthwhile to ask.

@mod: Can the same mafia/ww RB submit both the kill and their RB?

It matters because we're better off lynching the roleblocker than the goon. We can take our time to think that through, though if we have one for certain and don't have a strong read on who the other is, it's better to take the one we know about. I think we're best off figuring out as much as we can before ending day.

[davesaz]

It should be clear already since I didn't get any strong town reads or guilties, but I was RB'd both nights.

We'll need the mod's answer on whether the same player can RB and kill in one night. I have a pretty strong opinion on what that would mean but it can wait till postgame.

[davesaz]

I have thought that BC seemed too well informed for a while. I took the early day statement that the tracker might have a result as a soft claim, but it now makes much more sense as an attempt to get the tracker to reveal.

Unfortunately, it comes down to town can only win if at least one scum team goes for a kill on the other.

[davesaz]

Interesting, wolves must think they can beat us in LYLO. That gives me a huge clue, and I'm in no hurry to vote.

[davesaz]

Acryon, who do you think is scum?

[davesaz]

Umm, folks voting are aware we're in LYLO?

[davesaz]

Ah, I noticed that Almost's action wasn't recorded for N2.
I should have stuck with my read on BC. They knew too much.

[davesaz]

I know, that's part of what kept me from nailing you for it. But there was a subtle degree of certainty that my gut was telling me was too strong. I think I have a soft spot for reading logical as town and illogical as scum. Game would have gone a lot differently if a couple of people had realized that it would not make sense for scum!me to both coach and bus KT D1. And it turns out that gut read would have been productive too.

[davesaz]

Right, but if fewer people had knee-jerk reactions like coaching->scum and asking oblique questions->scum, it would not be necessary to work so hard at not getting mislynched d1 every game.
I've almost come to the conclusion that I have to enter the game making brash accusations and throwing naked votes and around to be townread, and that's just not me.

[davesaz]

I think I mentioned somewhere that I dont think enough players come into multiball really ready to wifom through it.


Did the setup seem balanced, or otherwise okay?

I disagreed with the ability of scum to use their own action plus the NK, when a partner exists to do the NK. Both teams seem to have identified the potential to nerf the tracker (and to a lesser extent JK) by having both actions submitted by the same player.

For this specific setup, I'm not sure about the balance of having two full RB's. It seems to leave town vulnerable, though maybe I'm thinking swing more than balance. Or maybe it just feels that way because so many roles got outed early.

A two wolf team knows for sure it's multiball, but do mafia also know? That could give wolves an advantage.