Open 627: Mexican Standoff [endgame]

[Ranger]

Toyota.

[acryon]

@Acryon, I disagree on the "responsible" thing being not to speculate. That's part of the reason I feel intelligence is scumread. By figuring out what must exist, you can figure out what claims can or cannot happen and therefore what must be true. You realize what happened when I posted my setup? No one tried to say it was wrong, people went straight to scumslip rather than giving feedback. That tells me I was right.

Except we can't actually figure out what else exists without more claims, so I don't see the point in discussing it unless the goal is to accidentally out a PR. That's my issue with it. Instead of it getting us somewhere, people instead latch onto comments as scumslips, so it's not getting us any real information. We are potentially wasting our energy and screwing up our reads trying to find two separate scum teams when it's possible there is only one. I think it just complicates things when scumhunting is already difficult enough.

[KainTepes]

Ooh, KT reads. That gives us something which might be interesting to talk about.

Please point to some specific things that you find scummy, that is to say examples of things your scum reads are posting and why you think those posts make them scum.

DID YOU READ MY POST ON CHILLEDTEA,, I TOOK A LONG TIME TO WRITE MY OPINOIN INTO WORDS,, WHAT DOY OU THINK???

[davesaz]

<trimmed chilledtea posts that talked about KT as town>
he is VERY inconsistent,, feels like he wants to redirect the DAY today,, so he suddenly scumread me after townreading me for a long time,,

Changing your read is something that people do as both town and scum. If you look at his posts after he changed his read, what things look like he's trying to manipulate people?

[Burning Crystal]

@Acroyn that's where you're wrong. Even if we go with Ranger's ridiculousness that Almost is scum, we can conclude there's a weak BG in the setup. Why? Because if there was no weak BG and someone had a role that conflicted, they would have said so (and just not specified what it was). So we can make that deduction straight away. I can see a hypothetical silence on a CC if they were the weak bg but that seems farfetched.

So we are in setups that only have a weak BG. That much is pretty clear.

[Burning Crystal]

Ooh, KT reads. That gives us something which might be interesting to talk about.

Please point to some specific things that you find scummy, that is to say examples of things your scum reads are posting and why you think those posts make them scum.

DID YOU READ MY POST ON CHILLEDTEA,, I TOOK A LONG TIME TO WRITE MY OPINOIN INTO WORDS,, WHAT DOY OU THINK???

Kt , you want to sort Anen and annoy your scumread?

*points to Anen wagon*

I don't bite if you're town.

[acryon]

@Acroyn that's where you're wrong. Even if we go with Ranger's ridiculousness that Almost is scum, we can conclude there's a weak BG in the setup. Why? Because if there was no weak BG and someone had a role that conflicted, they would have said so (and just not specified what it was). So we can make that deduction straight away. I can see a hypothetical silence on a CC if they were the weak bg but that seems farfetched.

So we are in setups that only have a weak BG. That much is pretty clear.

Yes, and I agree there. But things get a lot harrier when we are speculating on possible setups that are so drastically different (one anti-town faction vs. two)

[Almost50]

I will -once again-repeat this: The ideal lynch is KT. It will remove much confusion and provide some pointer at the very least, but I also genuinely think it will remove one scum off the game.

[chilledtea]

I will -once again-repeat this: The ideal lynch is KT. It will remove much confusion and provide some pointer at the very least, but I also genuinely think it will remove one scum off the game.

You don't think Burning Crystal is scum?

[Kop]

I will -once again-repeat this: The ideal lynch is KT. It will remove much confusion and provide some pointer at the very least, but I also genuinely think it will remove one scum off the game.

I'd rather that as a last ditch, if we aren't anywhere near solving this Ranger/Burning Crystal scum readings.

The only confusion I'm getting is his alignment. His posts are more annoying than confusing. If he's scum, he'll slip imo.

[davesaz]

Any scum lynch is good. But if KT is town his lynch gives us next to nothing. It's better than losing a PR but worse than losing someone whose reads are trustworthy.

[Almost50]

You don't think Burning Crystal is scum?

Nope. I think they're leaning town. KT is my top scum read actually. I think all his posts are meant to distract and shed doubts.

[KainTepes]

WHY VOTING OF ANEN???? EXPLAIN TO ME AND I WILL SEE IF IT IS A ARGUMENT THATR IS GOOD OR BAD!!!!!!!!!!!

[Burning Crystal]

@Acryon Wrong again.

If we presume there is a BG in the setup, we can presume that only the following setups are valid.

5
1 Town Jailer, 1 Town Cop, 6 Town Citizen, 1 Town 1s PGO, 1 Town Weak Bodyguard, 1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Roleblocker, 1 Mafia Follower

10
1 Town Jailer, 1 Town Cop, 6 Town Citizen, 1 Town Weak Bodyguard, 2 Mafia Goons, 1 Mafia Godfather, 1 SK
12
1 Town Jailer, 1 Town Cop, 5 Town Citizen, 1 Town Tracker, 1 Town Weak Bodyguard, 1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Roleblocker, 1 WW Goon, 1 WW Roleblocker


We can mostly eliminate 5 because of HOW Almost was targeted for his claim. Very little said oh Almost is rolefishing and just flailing about until he hits PRs. He was voted for his claim being premature, meaning that people didn't doubt his PGO claim. The only person who could have been going after Almost as a PGO is Ranger but that would require almost to be both the bodyguard and the PGO. So, given no one can be the PGO. Scenario 5 is gone.

10 and 12 both have a missing kill, which is precisely my point. I was jailed because of a missing kill, my wagon recycles with scum when I vote scum. When I voted acyron (to see my reads), no one thought anything of it. When I vote Anen, then the wagon starts. The wagon on me is one of scum desperation.

@KT, Because he's more concerned with his own hide than scumhunting. He basically yells poop at any argument he disagrees with and OMGUSes anything with a pulse. A wagon with myself, Almost and Dave (all pretty likely town) voted him. The response was to immediately wagon our slot. Anen hasn't done much in giving reads or propelling the game forward. All he's done is cry scumslip and attack credibility. He's letting others attempt to fill in what this mysterious scumslip is (hint: it doesn't exist). That's what Anen and MKA have done all game long. They've just sat back and let others fill in the blanks.

The Texcat lynch is another example (which we weren't on). It was just a last second wagon out of nowhere. The people who are suspected as being my partners also weren't on that wagon. They're not even trying to form a coherent narrative anymore. It's just oooh throw shit and see what sticks.

That's Textbook RC play.

[Kop]

Any scum lynch is good. But if KT is town his lynch gives us next to nothing. It's better than losing a PR but worse than losing someone whose reads are trustworthy.

Which is why there is more information to be gained from either BC/Ranger/Aneninen.

I sense KT can be the last ditch lynch, I wouldn't want him near MYLO/LYLO. But I think it should be the next day phase if anything to get rid of KT.

One of those 3 mentioned in the first line, needs resolving.

[davesaz]

KT is my top scum read actually. I think all his posts are meant to distract and shed doubts.

I had this thought right from the start, but there were enough other possible explanations that I was reluctant to place much weight on it.
It would be a gambit of monumental proportions to do this on purpose, but on the other hand it just might work.

[chilledtea]

You don't think Burning Crystal is scum?

Nope. I think they're leaning town. KT is my top scum read actually. I think all his posts are meant to distract and shed doubts.

Please defend them then. Why would they give so much importance to setup and why would they think regarding kuroi protecting them, and two scum teams especially to the precision of the contents of both the scum team?

They say they are vanilla town as well. Considering that, unlike you, they should have zero information regarding setups. Instead they are rolling in setup guesswork. I just can't see vanilla giving a damn about setup, unless it actually mattered.

[Almost50]

Please defend them then. Why would they give so much importance to setup and why would they think regarding kuroi protecting them, and two scum teams especially to the precision of the contents of both the scum team?

Except for the Kuroi protecting them bit; I'm guilty as they're charged. In fact, regardless of my alignment or role I'm noted to be inclined to setup spec myself. I also was the first person to bring up multi ball early into D1, and I asked them to reread the thread with the assumption of 4 specific players forming 2 specific teams and even specified which would've been Mafia & which is WWs according to my thoughts back then.

They say they are vanilla town as well. Considering that, unlike you, they should have zero information regarding setups. Instead they are rolling in setup guesswork. I just can't see vanilla giving a damn about setup, unless it actually mattered.

This (and the bit about being protected) I can't pinpoint the reason for, but it could be anything from reading between the lines to pure speculation. Sometimes people say things that are plain and clear that I somehow seem to miss for the longest time, while others are perceptive. So, MAYBE someone crumbed and BC got the message? OR maybe they're just claiming VT so as not to get NK'd? Or maybe they just had a gut feeling that if X was scum then they will be killing them? I don't know for sure, but I do think their overall performance is comming from a town mindset rather than a manipulating scum.

[KainTepes]

CHILLEDTEA IS SCUM!!!!!!! VOTE CHILLEDTEA,,

VOTE: ChilledTEACUP

[Burning Crystal]

@Almost,

Me being protected is also frankly pretty easy to deduce.

First, Kuroi likely jailed his scumread.
Jailing a bodyguard claim in this setup is stupid, like I mentioned.
So, I was jailed.

There's a missing kill (which I explained above)

That leaves either a) both scum kills shot the jailor or b) I was shot and protected

Both scum shooting the jailor with terrible reads makes zero sense.

Thus, I was shot and protected.

[Burning Crystal]

CHILLEDTEA IS SCUM!!!!!!! VOTE CHILLEDTEA,,

VOTE: ChilledTEACUP

Yeah, I appreciate the assist but this is at best a compromise lynch for me. I don't think scum dramatically push Texcat with me being available as a mislynch. Is it possible? Sure. Probably means I townread his partner. It's not a road I want to pursue.

[acryon]

@Almost,

Me being protected is also frankly pretty easy to deduce.

First, Kuroi likely jailed his scumread.
Jailing a bodyguard claim in this setup is stupid, like I mentioned.
So, I was jailed.

There's a missing kill (which I explained above)

That leaves either a) both scum kills shot the jailor or b) I was shot and protected

Both scum shooting the jailor with terrible reads makes zero sense.

Thus, I was shot and protected.

Yeah I guess it's actually hard to argue against this being a likely scenario. Not going to pretend I have a good rebuttal when I don't.

[Almost50]

We have different scenarios of action here to unfold some clues. Like, I could protect BC tonight. Or maybe I can protect Anen if that's more convenient. What I know is I'm not going to protect KT for instance, bc -even IF they're town; which I very much doubt- they're not benefiting the town much. I would rather protect someone who can help the town win rather than be a useless troll all over.

P.S. I'm not announcing my night target beforehand. You'll just have to guess whom I was on if I get NK'd. If I make it through the night though you might get yourself another confirmed townie.

[acryon]

We have different scenarios of action here to unfold some clues. Like, I could protect BC tonight. Or maybe I can protect Anen if that's more convenient. What I know is I'm not going to protect KT for instance, bc -even IF they're town; which I very much doubt- they're not benefiting the town much. I would rather protect someone who can help the town win rather than be a useless troll all over.

P.S. I'm not announcing my night target beforehand. You'll just have to guess whom I was on if I get NK'd. If I make it through the night though you might get yourself another confirmed townie.

No offense, but what is the point of this post?

[Burning Crystal]

@Almost,

There's a spot on the Anen wagon waiting for you.

Although I know you're not going to announce your target (nor do I want you to reply to this beyond acknowledged), I think checking me is the best for the town.

:nod: