Open 631 - Diffusion of Power (Over)

[Almost50]

.

VOTE: PK

Scumslip

[Almost50]

VOTE: KainTepes

Obvscum is obvscum.

I support the notion wholeheartedly. I just thought I'd give him the chance to shout at us first.

[Almost50]

VOTE: shottytea

WHO???!!!!!!!

[Almost50]

Interesting musical chairs going on there. Could someone from each side please present a case on either drmyshottyizsik or Lowell?

[Almost50]

Interesting musical chairs going on there. Could someone from each side please present a case on either drmyshottyizsik or Lowell?

Nope. Jumping on wagons is awesome. Townread on snarky.

Need I say more?

That's why YOU just voted them. I wanted to know why there was already a wagon on Lowell before that, and why shotty has 5 votes on them right now.

[Almost50]

In my opinion drmyshottyizsik is scum. He reacted way too seriously to my joke post.

Ah. OK. I see your point. Not a convincing case IMHO, but I can't argue against it either. Your vote is fine.

[Almost50]

I'm also assuming it is the case for Sn○7rky (whose problem is he almost never gives an explicit detailed case)

[Almost50]

So chilled, duppin and -presumably- SS have causes to vote shotty. Lowell though is "jumping wagons".

On the other hand; Autti had voted Lowell for not providing content (OK), PK joined w/o an explanation, shotty's vote is OMGUS and KTS is premeditated conf!biased against both Lowell & SS.

Have I missed anything??? If not.. carry on, please.

[Almost50]

I forgot to mention that of the lot; shotty is the most suspicious one, but it's NOT reason enough for me to put them @ L-1

[Almost50]

VOTE: KT

Conf!bias; I know. I just don't like KT's play much. The problem is he seems to get away with it too.

[Almost50]

Convince me. Let me see a case on either of them. Shouting doesn't count either.

[Almost50]

So, you expect me to sheep your reads on one who called you a troll, and another who voted you?? I mean, what's new?

I

called you a troll elsewhere for playing in this same manner, and I know

for a fact

you scum read everybody who scum reads or votes you.

[Almost50]

OK... show me where KTS explicitly said you were town, and I might sheep you on this one. The Pista thing isn't scummy in itself. They'd have to stay on your wagon until you're @ L-2 (say) for it to be.

[Almost50]

but I'm reading both KTS and Almost as more scummy than shotty

Are you sure you're not confusing games?

[Almost50]

dont say words like a*s and b*tch they are bad words.......

Hmmm.. I just "might" start liking you afterall.

[Almost50]

I KNOW IT MUST BE TRUE,,

KTS, CHILLEDTEA, PISTACHIO --> SCUM IS WITHIN!!!

So, you don't think SS is scum? Tell me why.

[Almost50]

I KNOW IT MUST BE TRUE,,

KTS, CHILLEDTEA, PISTACHIO --> SCUM IS WITHIN!!!

So, you don't think SS is scum? Tell me why.

WHAT IS SS????

S

narkey

S

nowman

[Almost50]

Sorry for lack of inactivity.

Actually; I humbly urge you to have less inactivity. At least until I get a confident read on you.

[Almost50]

Weve got another player acting like hes selling lemonade at the white house and a third who's putting in so much effort my eyes bleed when I look at this post.

I kind of admire the way you put it.. mostly bc I didn't/don't understand, so I assumed it must be something elaborate that's waaaay above my head.

[Almost50]

Yeah, man. WHY should anybody get arrested for breaking the law?? I mean, laws are made to be broken, right?

[Almost50]

So, you're town reading everyone on your wagon, but you don't stop to think why they're scum reading you?

[Almost50]

VOTE: SS

VOTE: SnarkySnowman

CAN WE ALL VOTE CHILLEDTEA,,!!!!!

KT is trying to derail the SS wagon it seems. If SS flips red KT is confirmed scum in my book.

VOTE: SS <<< L-1

Time to claim, my friend.

[Almost50]

You are voting for him because he prod dodged? Also you a quoting a vote that was nothing more than a prod dodge as well. No reasons literally just a vote tag. Something is wrong here.

SS is lurking big time and contributing nothing. It's suspicious but not an exclusive indication, so I want him to claim. Anyone who loohammers will be a PL of mine.

[Almost50]

OH, so you would rather wait until we're 48 hours away to demand a claim, so we either are inclined to disregard the claim and hammer anyway or we try to redo the work of the whole 14 days in under 48 hours?? No, thank you. I want a claim, and I want time to discuss and analyze it before we either hammer or move on to another target.

[Almost50]

Almost's posts voting me read like he already knew I was town, but I may be gutreading that one wrong.

"know" is not the correct term. "suspect" is more fitting. You see on this game I do have you as a null-town lean (just slightly off the total null slot). I don't have any strong reads though, so I was hoping your claimed would help narrow down the list of suspects and -maybe- connect some dots.

I could be an ultimate fool here, but I'm reading your response as more town'yish than scum'mish, merely on gut feeling.

UNVOTE: SS

[Almost50]

At least 80 percent of those reads are completely correct without a doubt.

Well, I'm going to take you on that one. 80% of 12 = 9.6, and since there is no such thing as a 0.6 player I will down the line for you to just 9. (that's only 75% actually).

So, if you got 9 (or more) out of 12 you win. If you get 8 .. wait. If you get SIX or less out of twelve; you lose. 7 or 8 I'm willing to call it a draw. How's that?

[Almost50]

I don't even have a single thing to add at this time.

[Almost50]

Hmm.. pista? shotty? Lowell, KT, PK?? We can even go for a no lynch considering we have at least 4 cops. In fact, I think it best to go for a NL in this particular setup. There are no VTs here, so we either lynch scum or a town PR, and considering it's 10:3 a town PR I'm not feeling extra motivated to do a lynch just so we lynch someone.

[Almost50]

Why the sudden change of heart to a no-lynch?

I'm curious, if you feel this way about the setup, why wasn't this brought up earlier?

You don't start with a NoLynch in mind. You hope for something to happen that will give you a confident scum read on someone. Even if I did have the NL on the back of my mind (which I honestly didn't) I would not have said it aloud too early bc it then nullifies any purpose of pressure voting someone. They'd know I'm not serious about lynching them w/o good cause, so they would not panic over it.

Come on. What kind of question was that?

[Almost50]

Isn't there a chance that even if he flips a town PR, there could be duplicates for that night? I think I've seen 2 night 1 PR's, I'm sure of it.

I don't object to a no lynch, but I find it odd that it's been discussed 400+ posts later.

The posts were a necessity. If we proposed a NL right from the start then we're basically going into D2 with nothing at all. Maybe a NK, but then it's like starting with a night phase instead. We HAVE accomplished something. Maybe not the best that we could've done, but still we have some reads and some dots "yet to be connected", but -at least- we have them. Now I feel the night action might give us more insight.

And the main reason for this is I'm not scum reading SS. I have given you a list of other players I feel less about than I feel about Snarky at this time. I probably wouldn't have proposed a NL if it was Pista on L-1 to be blatantly honest. I'm not too confident Pista is scum, but that's my strongest read thus far on the scum side of the line.

[Almost50]

@shotty & Kop:

What IS wrong with having TWO or even THREE cops working tonight? Wouldn't than mean we have a better chance of getting mod-conf scum reads.. maybe even more than one?

Also what is wrong with 2-3 doctors working tonight? Wouldn't that be of a better chance to prevent a kill?? What's wrong with you guys? What logic is this "we might have another PR of the same role, so it's ok if we lynch this one"?

We already know SS is either a Cop, a Doctor or Mafia. Each and every one of us is one of these 3. I challenge you to come up with a case that hold water that merits a lynch of SS based on this fact.

OK, let me say it another way: Let's hypothetically assume we're playing a closed setup. Now let's assume SS soft claimed a PR but didn't specify which. Would you still be inclined to lynch him based on what's been going on in this thread?? If yes, then you must be able top come up with a water-proof case on him. If not, then you're lynching for info, only you're lynching a PR.

In most games we do lynch a VT. They have no other actions to use to help the town except for their vote. But we don't lynch claimed PRs unless we are confident they're lying scum. This is the same thing. A claimed PR. Do you have confidence in them being lying scum?

[Almost50]

@KTS: Please share your thoughts on my logic regarding a NL on D1 in this particular setup.

[Almost50]

@PK: Do you realize how scummy your last 3 posts look?

First you want to lynch "someone", indicating you don't care who eats the rope. You just want someone out of the game.
Then you want a full claim from SS, threatening that his "kind of claimed" was reason enough to lynch him.
Then he did outright claim, and your response is "PRs are overrated"????

OK, so why did you demand a full claim if you thought PRs are overrated? Because the only reason I can think of is you wanting to know if he was the cop tonight so you would try to shoot him. Otherwise I don't see why you insisted to know his role when he already told us he has an action on N1, which was more than enough for me.

[Almost50]

Huh? Do you mean scumKOP??

[Almost50]

Fire wants to hydra with me and call us PissBringer

I could hydra with you and we can call it "AlmostPiss"

Now to answer your question; yes.. I've played with you as both scum and town. You were almost disengaged as town (which is why I was leaning town on you here). However, you didn't go as far as sounding this reckless either. Not as town and not as scum. This is a new feature revealed.. the reckless blood-thirsty PK, and I'm not sure if that should be read as townkop or scumkop.

[Almost50]

Ok. I will ponder on it for a while.

[Almost50]

Well, then.. this doesn't help me much. I mean, if I can't meta you then I'm back to square one.. which is: What IS the motivation behind pushing for a full claim at this time, and what do you get from discrediting the power of PRs anyway?

[Almost50]

The bonus here is that IF Snarky is town, he may be a day 5 cop, in which case he is taking a bullet for us.

What did I miss? Have I been gone THAT long? The last I read was SS claimed N1 Cop, so where did this D5 possibility come from? You think he's bluffing to draw a NK to himself?? Would that even be optimal town play? What if we have a N1 Doctor? What if we have TWO N1 Doctors, and they both decide to protect him?

On the other hand, scum can't do anything but try to shoot him. I mean, they're 3 goons, so no RB there. So -again- what would be the points of TOWN SS claiming the wrong night?

[Almost50]

I literally just explained it.

To take a bullet for a more important role.

Not sure what is complex about that.

Well, ok. It just didn't rhyme with my own line of thoughts. I think a N5 Cop is even more important than a N1 Cop. On N5 we're likely to be on a LyLo, so one investigation + surviving the night wins us the game. On N1 though they're got too many targets to pick from, so it's not going to be a big thing unless they DO hit on scum.

Put another way, if I was Mafia I would NOT shoot the N1 Cop. They have a smaller chance of hitting on scum, and they're basically a VT afterwards, so one less person to worry about.

But to each their own, and I see where you're coming from. I just don't agree.

[Almost50]

if you want you can even lynch ME,, any information is better than a NO LYNCH on day 1

And what info are we supposed to have from your flip?

[Almost50]

If we don't lynch Snarky, what do we do if we run someone else up to l-1 and they claim n1 cop?

I'd like to get some answers to this question.

Nothing. We move on, as there COULD be 2 N1 Cops. Only on D2 can we evaluate them better.

[Almost50]

We have them investigate each other and lynch someone else.

Are you serious??? I mean, we waste two cope investigations on eachother? So that they both confirm eachother as VTs from then on?

[Almost50]

How about scum win rates jump by almost 10% when there are an even number of players?

NL makes scum more than 10% more likely to win from a numbers standpoint

Stats are only valid if they're done on RANDOM specimens. If I was scum and I knew you'd be putting it that way I'd always make sure we ARE even so as to get you to lynch someone. The one time you no lynch (or fail to lynch) someone I will not kill on the following night to keep the number even. How's that??

[Almost50]

@PK:

No, my friend. Stats must be based on specimens that are not "self aware" so to speak. Allow me to elaborate:

It is more likely for a mafia player bussing their partner to be on the 3rd voting slot on their wagon in beginners games. That ONLY applies though to NEWBIES who are UNAWARE of that fact. Once you KNOW this is the case you are likely to either jump early (2nd?) or late (4th or 5th). You will AVOID being 3rd on the Wagon, bc you know "statistically" it is the likely place for you to be. Now, if we do include games of you (or me.. or any other player who KNOWS the stats) and implement the results into the stats you will find great discrepancies between that and the original stats you were using, simply bc most (if not all) those who knew the stats prior to the game in question opted to vote based on their knowledge of it.

Put simply: If you walk into a group of 50 patients and asked who was a smoker you might get something 20-30 smokers. However, if you announced beforehand that smokers will have to wait until all non-smokers have received their treatment, or that smokers will pay 50% extra for treatment and medicine THEN asked who was a smoker you might as well get 5-10 'confessions", bc they already know the consequences.

@duppin:

Yes, please. explain to me why a NL is bad play

in this particular setup

.

@PK: Pay attention to duppin's elaboration on this, if you will.

[Almost50]

Like how are you not grasping what a mathamatical formula is?

Man, a formula yields but one solid result. Does it say with twelve players in the game #5 on the list will be scum?? cuz THAT is what a formula does.

However, if it says "with even numbered players in the game CHANCES (i.e. the PROBABILITY) of town winning is reduced by an average of 10%" then it's DEFINITELY STATISTICS.

[Almost50]

WE CAN VOTE SHOTTY??? OR KTS

You do realize shotty is voting KTS, no? What makes you think they could both be scum?

[Almost50]

You have to realise that by not lynching anyone day 1 basically means that day 2 is going to turn into day 1 v2

Not in THIS setup. That's why I emphasized on the term.

we will still have very limited information which also means that people are (most likely) going to pursue the exact same targets they did day 1 as it is unlikely anything would've changed their mind - so basically it sets town back one day.

Except we are likely to have cop investigation results AND a night kill. We can trace back the NK interactions and analyze their reads.

What you say (the no new info) would only be true if the cop(s) got blocked (which is not applicable since we know there's no RB in the setup) AND there's no NK either, in which case; yes we're basically playing D1 v2, but then we also haven't lost anyone at all. I'd repeat the process on D2 if necessary and we would probably end up with 3-4 confirmed town players (assuming a no NK on N1 = one cop result as it stands now, so on D2 the cop could investigate SS to verify his alignment and claim on D3. If SS is town then we can trust his N1 result as well, so at least 3 confirmed town players.)

There is no point in doing anything day 1 if we are just going to go for a no lynch (sure some interactions might come in handy later, but it's still not a good play).

Again, this is true in general, but NOT in a setup where everyone can potentially return a guilty/not guilty result or help secure the info will come in the open by protecting the one who will get it.

You see, in chess -say- there are pawns and there are powerful pieces. VTs are the pawns in this game. The situation now is like we have run out of pawns already, and all remaining pieces are rocks or bishops. Rather than losing either for no reason I would rather hold on to my pieces until they've done something that will help tighten the board and choke the opponent's remaining pieces.

The game could just begin during nighttime then,

If it did, we might still get a result from the cop, but the NK would have nothing to it to analyze. The purpose of the day talk we had is to make a link between the kill and someone. We will need to think why the mafia picked this target over any other. We won't have that if it was a night start.

In fact, we can always assume we did start with a night phase, someone got killed and flipped VT. Now this is the following day and we're trying to find out who did it.

it would be easy for scum to just kill someone who's flip won't have that big of an impact on the game (as in players who haven't really done much day 1).

First point I can agree with. But then, some players try to lay low as PRs to avoid being killed. I seem to notice the mafia kills follow two very distinct philosophies. The first one is what you're suggesting: Target the less active players who show no commitment to the game. The other one is target the vocal players who are likely to be town leaders and drive pushes leading to lynches. That -of course- aside from the obvious targeting of the PRs; which -in this setup- is all of us (up until now).

You also have to realise that lynching is the only way for town to kill scum and that is obviously not possible if we don't lynch,

Well this IS the core of our different views. I mean, the quoted statement is 100% true, yet it's 100% misleading 9it looks like it was extracted from a Microsoft manual or something).

It IS the town's only was to kill scum. It is also the town's only way to kill a townie. So, to make it completely and utterly true it should be "it's the town's only way to kill". Period.

The town needs to kill SCUM. I fully agree. The town does NOT benefit from killing it's own though, hence I'm calling for an informed lynch rather than one for the sake of lynching.

What we're doing 9pushing for a lynch for the sake of it) is closer to playing on dozens (or columns) in roulette. In fact, even playing dozens or columns have better odds of winning. Our odds are 3/13 (= 12/52 as opposed to 12/38 in roulette 12 numbers).

so we're just giving away a free kill to scum

OR we're giving THEM a free kill if we lynch one of us.

Yes it is possible we lynch town day 1 (in fact that is usually what happens), but that's still better than not lynching at all.

And now we're back to being on opposing sides on this. Losing one of us is NOT a better option. This "one of us" could be the one who decides the game later on. They could be the N4/N5 cop who will solve the game in LyLo, or could be the N4/N5 doctor who would save a townie from being NK'd thus ensuring we do get to the LyLo/MyLo.

We can then look at vote records and interactions and actually base it on something.

The same can be done based on an ISO of D1 VCs in D2 even if we don't lynch. ONE flip is all we need, and considering the day ends when we reach a majority (except for twilight where you still can't vote) it is basically the same thing... a flip + VCs from the previous day. It is the equivalent of a lynch + a successful night protection.

B) He survives and has an innocent check: People are going to doubt him. Did he survive because he was scum, because he was protected or because scum is trying to frame him?

I dunno about him being a fake cop or if scum want to frame him, but I know a doc who protected him should claim loud and clear. You seem to overlook the fact that anyone who has performed an action on N1 is a mere VT on N2. Even if scum wanted to play us they only have 3 members, so they can't claim N1 cop, N1 doc and expect to get away with it for long.

The way I see it is -from now on- we don't claim until we've performed out actions. Like, if there a N3 cop they don't need to claim and don't need to be pushed all the way to be forced to claim. HOWEVER, if still alive on D4 they MUST claim, not only their role but also their result. The same goes to doctors. If we do this I expect the town to win on D4 with all info being on the table.

Now assuming SS survives and no doctor claim on protecting him, we have two possibilities:

He claims a guilty or he claims not guilty on someone. If the former we lynch the target and see how they flip. If the latter we lynch SS (as he has performed his duty) and if he flips town we know his result is spot on.

In fact, let me put this in another colour so it would still stand out for skimmers.

Him surviving with an innocent check obviously means whoever he targeted is confirmed town (if SS is a cop), but we won't know that until SS flips.

Please reread the print in blue for this case.

[Almost50]

why the fuck are we still discussing no lynches?

Because you're scum and desperately dying for a mislynch bc you know it's in your best interest. that's why.

[Almost50]

Town usually has a cop in 99% of the games, that doesn't mean it's wiser to do a no lynch.

The friggin' cop in other games is an all nights cop. The copS here are specific night cops. Lynching one is like roleblocking a cop result in a usual game.

The overwhelming general rule is you don't lynch a claimed PR on D1. In this game every townie IS a PR. What you're doing is either lynching a claimed PR or you're exposing all PRs with their corresponding specific nights to the scum. If I claimed N1 doctor (say) then scum will know not to target SS, but WILL kill someone else. If I claimed N2 doctor they might as well take me out tonight OR risk shooting SS not knowing whether there's a N1 doctor or not.

GDI, this is very much like Titus in Blitz 26, only then Ranger was in game and got my back. Otherwise I would have been lynched and the town would have most probably lost.

Now I can't tell whether duppin is the pignash of this game or is actually scum but I now know KTS is scum.

VOTE: KTS

Both his push for a lynch and his read list suck more than a 2000W vacuum cleaner.

[Almost50]

What if we have no N1 cop? What if he is just saying so to attract whatever possible protections on N1?

let me say it one more time: If SS is alive in D2 he will provide an investigation result on someone. A guilty means we lynch the target and see their flip to confirm SS' alignment. A NOT guilty we lynch SS to verify his alignment and either confirm or refuse his investigation result. basically, unless SS hits on scum he is the lynch target of D2 (if he come up with a NOT guilty) or D3 (if he comes up with a guilty on someone who flips town). The only way SS will see D4 is if we lynch scum on D2 based on his investigation/recommendation.

[Almost50]

So a guilty will mean SS gets to see D3? What if he busses his partner? I mean they know our plan.

This is a lot of wifom.

That would be cool too, since a D2 or D3 cop could still investigate SS if they're still not sure, and we get a second guilty.

Mate, if we make it to LyLo as 2:1 all we need is one cop result to win. the cop will know who IS innocent and who IS guilty. We would have had flips already, so we know what to expect.

[Almost50]

Almost give me your reads on pista, KT, Kop, and duppin.

slight scum lean on Kop, null on the other 3.

[Almost50]

I'm lynching someone today. If we end up with a nolynch I'm death tunneling Almost.

Finer, then place your vote on yourself. It will still provide us with info, since you're nothing more and nothing less than the rest of us. Your heart is fully FOR the town, right? A lynch (just about ANY lynch) is better than a no lynch. Isn't that your argument? So HELP THE TOWN and get yourself lynched for the sake of us all. Put you money where your talk is.

[Almost50]

I can understand the reasoning behind lynching Snarky if he gets an inno check, because if he is town scum are not going to kill him since he is basically just a VT at that point + his target would be confirmed by his flip.
If he is scum he is obviously not going to get NK'ed. Basically he is just going to be a questionmark and an easy mislynch for scum to push seeing as a lot of players don't seem to trust him. Do we really want to let him live? If he gets a guilty check it obviously leaves us in a better position as we will have a confirmed scum between him and his check then, but I'm not sure it's worth the risk.

Except if we lynch him D2 and he flips town we have a confirmed town result, while if we lynch him today and he flips town we have no confirmation??

[Almost50]

Are you daft? That's literally fucking gamethrowing. I said I would deathtunnel you're fucking ass, not lynch myself

PLEASE DON'T SAY WORDS LIKE F**K & *SS. YOU'RE SO RUDE.

@KT:

Let's get rid of this swearing machine.

[Almost50]

I take it back. You have to be daft to be this bad

THIS happens to be my favourite of their work.

[Almost50]

@Autti:

So you do agree KTS behaviour is anti-town, and could be a standard scum tactic, but you still want to lynch SS over the. Tell me why?

[Almost50]

VOTE: SnarkySnowman

Is this a cop result or you saying?

[Almost50]

Somebody tell me why this is a too much of a stretch: BOTH SS & PK are scum, and Kop IS town.

We lynch SS = PK is confirmed and has a town ally in Kop.
We lynch PK = SS is cleared and Kop is tomorrow's mislynch.

I know it's not too much of a probability, but we're still at the very start of the day so we can go crazy and consider all possibilities.

The right thing here though is still to lynch SS and see how he flips. If he's scum, then -at least- we got one and we can wait for tonight's results (in hopes there IS a N2 cop). In this case they should be investigating PK once more, bc if PK is confirmed so is Kop and we have 2 universally confirmed townies.

If SS flips town though we lynch PK tomorrow, and the cop is free to investigate whomever they like.

VOTE: SS

[Almost50]

we arent wasting a cop on me

Why not? It does confirm you AND Kop, and you're likely to make it through the night bc you're a VT now so scum would rather kill someone who might be the N2 cop. If we have a N2 Doctor they protect Kop so we go into D3 with 2 confirmed townies. Now tell me what IS wrong with this logic?

[Almost50]

VOTE: snarky

doesn't get easier than this. talk is for weaklings. I am a man of action.

OMG! Not YOU, AGAIN!!

OK, you're officially classified in the RC, Katsuki & Boonskiies group of "LOL hammerers".

[Almost50]

Alright then.

VOTE: shotty <<=== L-1

Also, where the heck is KT?

[Almost50]

Fast day? No problem.

Directing the doc is dumb, but I'm going to direct the doc to protect almost. I'm buying kop's claim.

shotty makes sense. Fine with that.

Oh, not me. Not yet anyway. I doubt my services would be needed in the future though. Protect someone else outside of myself, PK & Kop (they did their jobs well, and mine isn't on N3 either).

[Almost50]

Because I knew PK was telling the truth that I am town. PK could still be scum, but I highly doubt it. He counter claimed SS, and SS flipped scum, so that gives his claim more credibility. Now on the other hand, if SS flipped cop, then I'd have investigated PK.

LOL. NOT suspecting you here, but that logic is AWFUL. You're telling me that if SS flipped COP, and he claimed he had a guilty on PK that you would have still investigated PK???

[Almost50]

Also an FYI to everyone. There can be multiple cops on the same night, so don't think because somebody claimed n2 cop and didn't get counter claimedthey are legit.

This alone is enough grounds for me to lynch you. How is Kop's claim not legit??

1- Let me drive you home: SS (confirmed scum) claimed PK was scum. This raises the chances pf PK being town to over 90%.

2- PK himself investigated Kop and found him town.

3- Kop investigated me and found I was town.

Let's work backwards:

3- I'm confirmed town, bc if I was scum then Kop must be scum, and if he is scum the PK must be scum, but we have already lynched one scum, so only 2 scum remain.

2- If Kop is scum then PK must be too. The problem here is he did come up with a town result on me when I could have been easily the mislynch of the day. He didn't need to claim anything, just push me.

1- PK also returned town on Kop which benefits not the mafia at all. He could've come up with a guilty on Snarky if that was a scum gambit, and whoever got lynched of them the other would have lived for the next couple of days at least w/o being suspected at all.

Now tell me again, why Kop's claim has any possibility of being fake?

[Almost50]

Now tell me again, why Kop's claim has any possibility of being fake?

It's clear that your confirmed town from the chain of cop invedtigations (I wouldn't have pointed that out till later, but that's your choice).

I think Kop is town but he isn't confirmed town like you are.

There is absolutely no way you can be scum. But Kop could still possibly flip scum, even if all actions taken so far make it incredibly unlikely.

I don't think it is scummy for auti to point that out.

PK cam up with a town result on Kop. If PK is town Kop is town. PK IS town bc it would've been dumber than dumb for the two scum buddies to make that stand off. SS had a long list of choices, so to come up with a guilty on his own buddy was uncalled for. It is obvious SS was trying to buy himself another day, and that doesn't really go with him bussing his partner. (What i mean is scum wanted to get another mislynch and go into N2 with the full team.)

Anyway, when shotty flips scum it will clear Kop 100% bc if Kop is scum PK

must be

scum, and we'd only have one scum to hunt down, not two.

[Almost50]

OK, shotty.. you want a case? I'll give you one.

Short version: You defended SS tooth and nail. You did a 360 degrees flip on the lynch vs no lynch issue. If it was SS on the offer it's "no lynch is better". If it's anyone else then it's "no lynch is rubbish". You're most happy trolling or spamming just to look busy when you're doing absolutely nothing, and you had more than enough time to prove you can "read multiple people over a few days". Recently you've been sillier than silly trying to fins "something" to cling on to.

For the long version;

Spoiler: Read on:

How about your opening 12 posts (#s24, 31, 33, 35, 38, 41, 43, 45, 50, 54, 56 & 58 all being with no content at all?

How about voting Lowell on 75 accusing him of being scum partners with SS? (The same SS you wouldn't vote at the end of D2, btw.)

How about returning to half a sentence posts after that for the next 8 of them (81, 82, 90, 99, 101, 103, 105 & 125)?

In 136 you're referencing to ancient history to make a case of yourself being a D1 mislynch more often than not. However, this is D3 if you weren't following and you still haven't done anything to help levitate your status.

Back to no content in 138, 149, 150, 157, 168, 223, 246, 251 & 272. Some of these posts are clearly done just to make you look active as you only quote others' posts without adding a word. Other posts have short comments that don't really correspond to the subject, or are some form of applause or objection to the content you quote w/o adding anything of your own.

In 273 you claim that you are: "quite proven on selecting scum." Your process relies on watching a few people simultaneously for a multiple days (and I'm assuming you meant week days, bc it doesn't make much sense if you needed "a few days" and meant game days). Well, it's been well over 2 weeks and you still haven't as much as pointed a finger on someone who flipped scum.

275 is requesting a VC and 289 is you starting the wagon on KTS, then 291 is another half a liner.

293 Is you quoting yourself with nothing more to add, and 295 is restating what you stated in 273 & quoted in 293.

297, 299, 301, 304, 305, 308, 310, 312, 314 are 9 posts that mean ABSOLUTELY NOTHING.

317 was your first attempt to try like you're doing something useful (apart from the fact it now looks like you were trying to implicate KTS and distance yourself from SS).

320, 322 are you being the way you are the whole game (read: useless) and 324 is you claiming you're starting to see how the machine is moving now. That was 12 days ago. care to share any observations??

327 is the kettle calling the pot black really, but -at least- PK has not been clogging the thread with LOTS of posts just to increase his count and look like he's active.

I'm not going to repeat this. 330, 332, 333, 348 are -once again- you being you, and 368 was you objecting on PK voting SS.

In 372 you express concern on the "speedy" wagon on SS, which you tried to amend in subsequent posts like 375, 380 & 383.

406 was you still objecting to lynch of scum!SS, still arguing his inactivity isn't a scum tell, and trying to redirect votes to your chosen target: KTS.

I will excuse you for 408 (irrelevant), and even 420 & 421 (based on human psychology).

In 428 was a good stunt. It then looked like SS was the lynch of the day, so you were lining me up for the next day's lynch. "Now I'm more inclined to lynch snark." when your vote was parked on KTS?? "If he flips town then almost is town other wise we have nailed a scum pair."?? REALLY??

The fact is you knew he would flip scum, so why not set me up already?

430 YBY (you being you), and 448 looks fake in hindsight. 457 in null, but 487 was a 180 degrees flip on your initial opposition to the NL @ L-1. It -of course- looked alright then, but seeing as SS flipped scum it looks much worse now.

starting #500 you're now arguing FOR a no lynch, and you continue that in 502, but in 505 you suddenly liked the idea of PK voting Lowell in a blatant applause of ANY MOVE that relieves the pressure off your scum buddy.

In 507 you continue to softly mud sling Lowell, and in 510 you're appetite for a lynch is back on full health. It's either Lowell or KTS now.

In 515 you're back on KTS, and in 558 you're looking for a reason to switch to me.

The ONLY lynch you were strongly opposed to was SS' and to the limit you flipped 180 degrees from "a lynch is a must" stance to "a no lynch is better" stance.

560 is one post I'm also willing to back you up with, but 571 was you completing your 360 degrees roll over. Now you agree I'm scum for promoting a NL??? What happened to your 500 & 502???

584 is down playing ANY consideration of an SS lynch, and then you start the counter wagon for real re-voting KTS in 619 as if to remind everybody there's a lynch in waiting here. I mean, you already had your vote there, but the reassertion was indeed plausible.

621, 623, 626, 628, 630 & 632, are all YBY. You're most comfortable trolling just as long as it's not SS on the table. Once it gets to SS you fight it back tooth and nail, as seen in 650 & 663, and you're back to silly nitpicking and mud slinging in 665.

668 ends your D1 trolling.

On D2 you're waiting for Snarky's result to push on Pk, but when PK claimed it became WIFOM and "one of them is scum", then on 720

you continue trying to buy SS another day.

This continues in 725, but it was well out of control.

D3 you started pushing Lowell for the umpteenth time in 770. You played dumb in 772, and you continue to do so in 776, 779, 781, 787, etc etc etc.

And the best part is your scum buddy Autti outed himself as well, so it's a slam dunk.

[Almost50]

pointless facts

Oh, I agree. It IS a fact that everything you posted was pointless alright.

Alo is autti outed him self why don't we lynch him and dee ho good your theories are. Wouldn't it make more sense to lynch the one who outed themself

Once again you're playing dumb (which FTR I don't believe for a second you are). NO. Here's how it works: SS pulls a stunt. YOU out yourself trying to defend/save him. He goes down = you're confirmed scum. You're being driven to the gallows. Autti outs himself trying to defend/save you. You go down = he's confirmed scum.

You don't skin the besr before you catch it. For there to be a case on Autti you need to be mod-confirmed scum. Otherwise, he can go with all the but-ifs in the world bc everything would be circumstantial & WIFOM. I now have the case on YOU, and ONLY YOU. Maybe we all like Autti and want him to win this as the lonely scum???

[Almost50]

@Autti:

I get your point, but everybody is/was aware of that since D2, if not from the moment they decided to sign up for the game. (Yes, I know some people don't really check the setup until the game begins, and some even forget to do it then).

MY point though is even with your point being true; it bears no meaning on the subject we're on about. Like, you specified N2 (not N3 for instance, in which case I would've probably interpreted it as you saying shotty's much anticipated claim would still mean nothing). For you to specify N2 it only meant you're discrediting Kop's claim bc he's the only one who claimed his action of N2.

[Almost50]

I very much liked duppin's analysis. I also have some old remark on mt text file that referred to Kop, Pista, Lowell & shotty that states "one scum in this group" (I think it was the analysis of one wagon at some point, but I really can't remember which one). The thing is Lowell seemed less scummy to me than shotty, but if you guys agree Lowell could a better choice I'm in.

[Almost50]

Hmm.. obviously duppin & Kop don't mind, so that should guarantee a lynch, and since I'm on a different time zone I don't want to control the hammer at this one, so I'll vote now and leave it up to you guys.

VOTE: Lowell

[Almost50]

I'll repeat myself for emphasis: Lowell & shotty = 1 town & one scum. Either/or situation in my book. The last one "could be" KT, but that one is the hardest to analyze due to lack of content.

[Almost50]

VOTE: shotty if it's him or me. Looking at Autti's list, and I also accept the claims at face value thus far, KT is the only other person I would vote for. I have pretty strong townreads on duppin and rhaegar.

THIS makes me feel much better about Lowell being town here. I still maintain Lowell & Shotty are of opposite alignments, but it's the "who else" that's been bugging me. My TOP scum read in this game is KT (but his absence + the availability of other reads kept from going down that route).

UNVOTE:

AND, intent to hammer shotty stated.

[Almost50]

You vote me in the same post you say that someone else is the only person you would vote for...

i don't see your point. Elaborate, please.

[Almost50]

I guess there is only room for one JOAT in this game.

JOAT?? Who is?

[Almost50]

So him well if not me let's vote the next most opportune wagon makes you think he is town? How?

did you read my post AT ALL??

P-edit:

Yeah, we should wait endlessly. ONE OF YOU IS SCUM. You should be voting him (and you are) and he should be voting you (and he is) regardless. It's up for the rest of us to decide which one of you is town and which is scum.

To me, I already had KT as the remaining scum with one of you two. Lowell also suspects KT and considers him the only viable lynch apart from you, so he is likely to be town in my view.

Are you claiming or should I hammer you anyway?

[Almost50]

If you dont have a huge scumread on either or are otherwise incapable of making your own mind up its always a better move to kill the stronger player.

Especially if neither will make it to lylo or this early

But I DO have "half" a scum read on shotty, and a slight town lean on Lowell.

@Shotty:

TL;DR. However, skimming through I'd like to pointb out Lowell said "the only OTHER.." which doesn't say "my ONLY ..", but even IF he said it the way you took it, from MY PoV it's either you of him, so anything else is moot to me.

Regarding his #228, this is probably the way I would've said it myself. I scum read someone but have no strong case on them and people are not listening to me. They're being annoying as well, so I WOULD toss in a PL just to get everybody's attention.

I'll repeat this one more time: I INTEND TO HAMMER YOU, Shotty. Claim NOW, please. Stop stalling/ignoring my request. CLAIM.

[Almost50]

OK.. fine. Scum will have tonight to either kill you or the N3 cop. I'm a N4 Doctor so they'd have to kill me tonight if they want to kill you next, so if we have a N3 Cop they will have a better chance surviving the night.

I'd say we wagon KT, but I know some of you will be quite opposed to it, so I'm not sure where to go next. Shall we force a claim out from Lowell too?

[Almost50]

And now I KNOW I want to lynch that spot before it's too late
*Looks at PK & Kop meaningfully*

[Almost50]

Are you asking.for a mass claim d3? Can we lynch lowell already

No.

We will wait for Ranger to give us her reads. NO POINT WHAT-SO-EVER in ending the day now after she joined in and before she posted even once.

Besides, you have bought yourself 2 days already (at least

I

won't be hammering you) but Lowell claims N3 cop I WILL drop the hammer on YOU (better him bc he only buys himself one day, AND if you flip town he will be lynched tomorrow either way).

My choice is to wait for Ranger to give us some feed back and then decide where to press.

[Almost50]

You just coached scum lowell on how to not get lynched. This is aweful

Why don't you just settle for not being lynched for the day? Why do you INSIST to lynch someone who may still have unfulfilled duties towards town? I said I'm giving you the benefit of doubt and you don't like that??

This is pretty dumb.

And now that you mention it, and I'm sure you're going to call me scummy as hell, but sure, I'd be up for a massclaim. Why not?

This ALSO is bad and scummy. Why would you want to know who is cop and who is doctor to begin with? 3 Doctors are already down and I claimed one, so that's FOUR. There's a chance there are 4 cops left; 3 of them w/o protection. There's also a chance there are 2 more doctors and only 2 more cops (not counting shotty as confirmed here).

IF you feel like it, claim yourself. I have no interest in anyone else's claim.

[Almost50]

In fact Ive re-read my case on you, and coupled with your claim I'm not buying it.

VOTE: shotty

This one's on me.

[Almost50]

-_-

Well, you gotta take some risks and accept the responsibilities at some time. If I'm right I get the applause, and if I'm wrong I will be the VI. Also, remember: one of the two IS scum, so a flip is as good as an investigation here.

[Almost50]

@PK:

It was VC analysis I did earlier. One of FOUR had to be scum: Kop, Pista, Lowell or shotty. Kop is 95% town. pista is mod-conf. town, so that leaves Lowell & shotty. If shotty flips cop then Lowell is scum with KT/duppin. Everyone else is over 75% town.

P-edit:

GDI, PK. Stop making me laugh while I'm trying to THINK. It takes away all the concentration left in my old mind.

[Almost50]

Just curious how i didn't end up in that pool.

You think you should??

[Almost50]

Of those alive:

PK claimed N1 Cop -->> Kop is town
Kop claimed N2 Cop -->> Almost is town
Almost claimed N4 Doctor

Kop is always equal to or higher than PK (bc PK is the one confirming him, so if PK is town then Kop MUST be town)

[Almost50]

Nice job

[Almost50]

I take it you agree with my read?

Kinda curious why you didn't lynch him, then.

You will probably see how things developed while you continue reading. duppin IS a candidate for the lynch alright, but I thought shotty was the most likely to flip scum due to do his posts and interactions with SS.

[Almost50]

I'm waiting on Ranger to show up and submit her latest analysis. I know for a fact she can see through it all and could probably pinpoint the remaining scum with a final read through. I've seen her do it before.

[Almost50]

I'd prefer a lynch of Autti for this:

The bonus here is that IF Snarky is town, he may be a day 5 cop, in which case he is taking a bullet for us.

.. this:

Please don't Lynch yet. I want to have time to read this.

Also an FYI to everyone. There can be multiple cops on the same night, so don't think because somebody claimed n2 cop and didn't get counter claimedthey are legit.

.. this:

Seriously how do people not see that lowell us scum, just read his last 10 posts good lord.

iso'd lowell, seems like a good lynch.

He was not onboard for the snarky wagon until he hammered and that could be more out of desperation to be on the wagon

.. and this:

Believing the cop claims for now; we have 5 candidates to lynch.

Rheagar
Duppin
KT
Lowell
Shotty

Snarky has very little interactions with most of them, other than Shotty who he pushes quite a bit.

I honestly think Shotty is a mislynch candidate.

I think we need to analyse the early wagon on shotty at the start of day 3. That was quite strange seeing how we didn't have a guilty result it got to L-1 so quickly. I'd bet scum helped that along the way.

Also by my count we have 5 roles revealed. 3 dead doctors and 2 claimed cops (correct?) thus at this point it's not possible to solve via a mass claim.

We should wait for the KT replacement at least before moving forward.

From then on Autti started preparing for a duppin lynch. First in 980 he mentions duppin or Lowell. If duppin is the scum I don't see why he picked Lowell to kill over -say- Autti himself. It would've been better to keep the "other" lynch candidate alive and kill the one who was pushing on them both (Lowell, Autti & Lowell have not claimed at this point).

In 982 he is trying to make sure he planted the seed on duppin. He also maintains shotty was town (why would you have completely excluded the possibility the lynched scum was messing with us?)

In 1019 he starts the mass-claim train, but doesn't claim himself. It is most beneficial for scum to be the last person to claim to make it fit.

In 1042 He brings back PK and even Rhaegar to the possible lynch pool. Why not Ranger?? Obviously a buddying attempt in my view. And what happened to the strong scum read on duppin?? Oh, yes.. Ranger has taken over, so Autti can sit aside now to disconnect himself from the mislynch.

Finally, in 1045 he is still pushing for a mass-claim even after duppin has yielded and acknowledged it's unnecessary, yet STILL not claiming himself.

However, just for the sake of being absolutely sure; I'm asking YOU; AUTTI, to claim both role and night of action. If you do, duppin will follow (I know he claimed Cop, so just the night of action). Ranger can go third and Rhaegar 4th (Ranger is dead certain Rhaegar is town, so doesn't matter if she goes before him).

How about that, Autti??

And just to reassure you I mean business, here's my vote:

VOTE: Autti

[Almost50]

It's now up to you Rhaegar. If you wish to go before Ranger does, please do. If you prefer to wait for her to claim first, that'd be fair enough.

[Almost50]

@Autti: Your attitude (of not caring if you get lynched) is anti-town. Please try to be more positive if you are indeed town-aligned.

[Almost50]

@Rhaegar:

It's already rolling, my friend. No point in holding back now. Are you a Cop or a Doctor?

[Almost50]

Confirmed, and your quoted post makes sense. Thank you.

[Almost50]

I'm working on the probabilities of different scenarios, so bear with me for a little while. Basically, I'm working with the assumption of each of the 5 unconfirmed players being scum and seeing how it would resolve. I'll let you know.

[Almost50]

Oh, my. This isn't working (too complicated) w/o Ranger's explicit claim. HOWEVER:

conversly if ranger and almost claim doc, then we KNOW for a fact that the scum is a doctor claimer, and all cops are confirmed town, as we would have 6 docs and 5 cops (impossible).

this is quite faulty. Only the 6D+5C is true. 6D+4C is valid though, and that's just to begin with. However, if we're both Cops (me & her) it does become obvious the doctor claims are confirmed.

Oh, btw.. I did tell a little lie somewhere behind

[Almost50]

I know you're a doctor, too, because the last scum is going to have claimed cop.
That's because I'm absolutely convinced we're in the 6-doctor, 4-cop setup. Why else would both scum have claimed cop? If we had only five doctors, they could have claimed doctor, yet they both claimed cop. The logic behind this should be obvious enough, but I can explain further if this doesn't make sense.

I'm speechless. THIS is why you're GOOD. You do pay attention to details that escape us all

OK.. I think it is Autti, but I'm ok lynching either.

[Almost50]

YES. That's why I liked Ranger's logic.