In post 554, Almost50 wrote: In post 545, duppin wrote:You have to realise that by not lynching anyone day 1 basically means that day 2 is going to turn into day 1 v2
Not in THIS setup. That's why I emphasized on the term.
In post 545, duppin wrote:we will still have very limited information which also means that people are (most likely) going to pursue the exact same targets they did day 1 as it is unlikely anything would've changed their mind - so basically it sets town back one day.
Except we are likely to have cop investigation results AND a night kill. We can trace back the NK interactions and analyze their reads.
What you say (the no new info) would only be true if the cop(s) got blocked (which is not applicable since we know there's no RB in the setup) AND there's no NK either, in which case; yes we're basically playing D1 v2, but then we also haven't lost anyone at all. I'd repeat the process on D2 if necessary and we would probably end up with 3-4 confirmed town players (assuming a no NK on N1 = one cop result as it stands now, so on D2 the cop could investigate SS to verify his alignment and claim on D3. If SS is town then we can trust his N1 result as well, so at least 3 confirmed town players.)
In post 545, duppin wrote:There is no point in doing anything day 1 if we are just going to go for a no lynch (sure some interactions might come in handy later, but it's still not a good play).
Again, this is true in general, but NOT in a setup where everyone can potentially return a guilty/not guilty result or help secure the info will come in the open by protecting the one who will get it.
You see, in chess -say- there are pawns and there are powerful pieces. VTs are the pawns in this game. The situation now is like we have run out of pawns already, and all remaining pieces are rocks or bishops. Rather than losing either for no reason I would rather hold on to my pieces until they've done something that will help tighten the board and choke the opponent's remaining pieces.
If it did, we might still get a result from the cop, but the NK would have nothing to it to analyze. The purpose of the day talk we had is to make a link between the kill and someone. We will need to think why the mafia picked this target over any other. We won't have that if it was a night start.
In fact, we can always assume we did start with a night phase, someone got killed and flipped VT. Now this is the following day and we're trying to find out who did it.
In post 545, duppin wrote:it would be easy for scum to just kill someone who's flip won't have that big of an impact on the game (as in players who haven't really done much day 1).
First point I can agree with. But then, some players try to lay low as PRs to avoid being killed. I seem to notice the mafia kills follow two very distinct philosophies. The first one is what you're suggesting: Target the less active players who show no commitment to the game. The other one is target the vocal players who are likely to be town leaders and drive pushes leading to lynches. That -of course- aside from the obvious targeting of the PRs; which -in this setup- is all of us (up until now).
In post 545, duppin wrote:You also have to realise that lynching is the only way for town to kill scum and that is obviously not possible if we don't lynch,
Well this IS the core of our different views. I mean, the quoted statement is 100% true, yet it's 100% misleading 9it looks like it was extracted from a Microsoft manual or something).
It IS the town's only was to kill scum. It is also the town's only way to kill a townie. So, to make it completely and utterly true it should be "it's the town's only way to kill". Period.
The town needs to kill SCUM. I fully agree. The town does NOT benefit from killing it's own though, hence I'm calling for an informed lynch rather than one for the sake of lynching.
What we're doing 9pushing for a lynch for the sake of it) is closer to playing on dozens (or columns) in roulette. In fact, even playing dozens or columns have better odds of winning. Our odds are 3/13 (= 12/52 as opposed to 12/38 in roulette 12 numbers).
OR we're giving THEM a free kill if we lynch one of us.
In post 545, duppin wrote:Yes it is possible we lynch town day 1 (in fact that is usually what happens), but that's still better than not lynching at all.
And now we're back to being on opposing sides on this. Losing one of us is NOT a better option. This "one of us" could be the one who decides the game later on. They could be the N4/N5 cop who will solve the game in LyLo, or could be the N4/N5 doctor who would save a townie from being NK'd thus ensuring we do get to the LyLo/MyLo.
In post 545, duppin wrote:We can then look at vote records and interactions and actually base it on something.
The same can be done based on an ISO of D1 VCs in D2 even if we don't lynch. ONE flip is all we need, and considering the day ends when we reach a majority (except for twilight where you still can't vote) it is basically the same thing... a flip + VCs from the previous day. It is the equivalent of a lynch + a successful night protection.
In post 545, duppin wrote:B) He survives and has an innocent check: People are going to doubt him. Did he survive because he was scum, because he was protected or because scum is trying to frame him?
I dunno about him being a fake cop or if scum want to frame him, but I know a doc who protected him should claim loud and clear. You seem to overlook the fact that anyone who has performed an action on N1 is a mere VT on N2. Even if scum wanted to play us they only have 3 members, so they can't claim N1 cop, N1 doc and expect to get away with it for long.
The way I see it is -from now on- we don't claim until we've performed out actions. Like, if there a N3 cop they don't need to claim and don't need to be pushed all the way to be forced to claim. HOWEVER, if still alive on D4 they MUST claim, not only their role but also their result. The same goes to doctors. If we do this I expect the town to win on D4 with all info being on the table.
Now assuming SS survives and no doctor claim on protecting him, we have two possibilities:
He claims a guilty or he claims not guilty on someone. If the former we lynch the target and see how they flip. If the latter we lynch SS (as he has performed his duty) and if he flips town we know his result is spot on.
In fact, let me put this in another colour so it would still stand out for skimmers.
In post 545, duppin wrote:Him surviving with an innocent check obviously means whoever he targeted is confirmed town (if SS is a cop), but we won't know that until SS flips.
Please reread the print in blue for this case.
