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Post #72 (isolation #3) » Wed Mar 30, 2016 4:03 am
Postby Clumsy »
In post 71, wgeurts wrote:Who are your top-three town reads right now. If you can't think of any act as if someone's sticking a gun to your head and give three names off the top of your head.
Oh man, I love this question, but I got roasted for asking it last game. Is this for just them or everyone?
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Post #131 (isolation #4) » Thu Mar 31, 2016 8:03 am
Postby Clumsy »
Apologies, because of my work schedule I'll mostly only be able to post anything substantial probably in the evenings. I'm on my phone at work currently.
I read through everything, but I need to be at my PC to really read deep into things.
For now though, a few things. Maxous' post early on "I don't like this either" really seems off to me, like scum trying to hop onto something early. Percival's posts do seem empty of substance, but I have no experience with them. Is that normal?
I would like to get more into the others, but while I'm on the phone I'm getting people and posts confused. More tonight probably.
For now, I'm mainly looking at Maxous. May change when I get home though.
– Even if his slow-start may have been because of IRL things, he looks like a lurk-scum. Partly gut, partly MissMarple read, partly his vote for Maxous, which tells me he's going after the low-hanging fruit. Lean scum.
Two things I'm wondering about here. First, what in the world is MissMarple? I thought you meant a player at first, and I had to re-check the list. Second, what makes Maxous low-hanging fruit?
Okay, I lied, three things. If you're leaning scum on me for picking the low-hanging fruit, why doesn't that apply to Dr.?
Who said anything about scum? I'm town-reading him. Plus, this is day phase. Do you think he's going to accidentally forget his scum buddies if he's scum?
In post 137, SirCakez wrote:I thought I posted my reads earlier but apparently not :/
Leaning scum on Shotty, Kurio, Blacle
Leaning town on Anen, Alex, Tex
Haven't read enough of others yet
I see a Kuroi vote. Wagon time VOTE: Kuroi
Wonderful. Which votes of mine do you not like? Why do you think I'm scum?
Thanks, but that didn't help me much.
Something is there in your posts that shouldn't be there and I don't know what it is. I hoped checking your scumgames could help but not.
I don't know what to think.
I thought something was odd. A very small amount of posts were in between Kuroi posting them and you saying that they didn't help you much. Surely just a late at night thing, not many posters on, right?
Kuroi: Thu Mar 31, 2016 5:37 pm
You: Thu Mar 31, 2016 5:51 pm
14 minutes. You read both in 14 minutes? Less than that for the time it takes you to post, so we'll say 13. I looked at them myself, but didn't read all the way. They must be short for you to get anything out of them in 13 minutes right? The Pokemon one is. (Also, that day 1 hanging. Oh man. I laughed so hard people were concerned about me.) 20 pages. Okay, if the other one is that short, it checks out- Wow. Nope. 275 pages. Well, maybe she was a late replacement or very few posts- nope, nearly 200 posts.
Quick Google search says that average reading rate is 200 words a minute, with 1000 being in the top 1%. I took a quick test, and I got roughly 350-400 a minute. Let's say you read at 500 words a minute.
If we assume an average post length of about 35 words (I think this is generous, because if you include quotes, this skyrockets), 13 minutes puts you at 186 posts that you could read in that amount of time. In the Fire and Ice mafia game, Kuroi had (nearly) 200 posts on their own. The Pokemon was much shorter to be sure. But overall, there were a grand total of 7343 posts in those two games. This is with generous calculations, and assuming you started reading IMMEDIATELY as Kuroi linked them. I'm not saying there -was- something you could get out of those games, but with the timeframe you had...
Anen... did you actually read enough to get anything out of that? Or is it an attempt at a perceived effort in scumhunting? If someone asks for games in which the person was scum, I would assume they had the intention of digging through it with effort to analyze and compare it with this game so far. It would be implied that there would be a good bit of reading. It doesn't seem like you actually put in enough time to get anything out of it. It's a stretch to say you read all of Kuroi's posts, and I'd say damn impossible to read enough of the rest of the game to be able to make any reasoning. So why did you ask in the first place?
Okay, enough on that topic. A few things I wanted to note here.
I actually like TexCat's apparent apathy towards being called scummy. Feels genuine to me.
Persivul strikes me as slightly scummy because his posts are seeming to be lacking in actual substance. We have the same number of posts as of this one, and this is my first actual substantial post, so this may be a little hypocritical. Meh.
Blacle and Sir Cakes just give me that scummy feeling, you know? Something about the way they post. Also meh. Also, just figured out why Anen was calling Blacle "Blade". I hate myself.
I like the push Dr. is putting on in this last page. Finding something that you think is odd and pushing and pressuring about it seems like good scumhunting to me. Even if it's not actually on something I consider worthy of suspicion, this kind of thing could lead to exposing scum. I like it.
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Post #176 (isolation #8) » Fri Apr 01, 2016 9:03 pm
Postby Clumsy »
In post 151, wgeurts wrote:We can also vote clumsy if anyone's up for that. Today I'll explain both once I'm free.
Can we get that explanation?
In post 161, KuroiXHF wrote:BTW, Clumsy made a very good point, one I hadn't noticed. If he's scum, he's doing a damn good job.
Hrng... I want to like this (for vanity), but it rubs me the wrong way. I go from completely Null in your 122 to "If he's scum, he's doing a damn good job [of hiding it]."? It feels like buddying. I might be being paranoid? Am I paranoid? I'm paranoid. Still don't like it though. I feel like I only had 1 actual good post so far, far from a damn good job. Meh.
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Post #191 (isolation #9) » Sat Apr 02, 2016 9:32 am
Postby Clumsy »
In post 187, wgeurts wrote:Back and doing what I promised. I've reread clumsy's posts and I'm not feeling that as scum anymore. I saw a "why me fry me" tell in there before and I apparently read the rest of his posts with a bias after that, ignoring that now there's honestly not too really see as scum-motivated.
So you're just saying that you're just reading it the other way? Nothing wrong with that, reads change, even on the same posts. But you did seem pretty confident on that, just casually throwing out the possibility of lynching me today, which would be a very bad idea.
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Post #225 (isolation #10) » Sun Apr 03, 2016 5:52 pm
Postby Clumsy »
Wanted to post to say I'm following conversation, but haven't had time to really gather my thoughts. First free day is Tuesday, I'll make something substantial by that night.
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Post #250 (isolation #12) » Mon Apr 04, 2016 8:22 am
Postby Clumsy »
I don't think he should be jailed. We have a limited number of uses, and using a charge to make sure that someone else doesn't use theirs is a bad use I think. However, if there is no CC, that does leave him open to a NK on a "confirmed" townie... ugh.
Pros to jailing:
1. Can't shoot someone randomly
2. Protects a confirmed town (if that's the case)
3. If he did shoot, and was wrong, prevents a town death (and possible PR)
Cons to jailing:
1. Uses up a charge anyway
2. Protects from a non-cc'd vig shot (but scum doctor may make that irrelevant)
3. If he did shoot, and was right, prevents a scum death.
In post 241, wgeurts wrote:No JK should def be protecting the confirmed town lol
We can't keep him alive long enough to make a difference, unless you're proposing we don't use any of our actions for cop investigations. We just protect one wild conftown every night and gain no new information from our PRs.
VOTE: wgeurts
In post 244, Persivul wrote:And you don't think that the limited action mechanic changes that?
Suppose we protect BW 3 nights. Then we enter D4 with 1 conftown and 1 action remaining.
Suppose we let the cop investigate 3 nights, and scum kill BW. Hopefully the cop finds scum. If not, on D4 he can claim, giving us potentially 4 conftowns (cop plus his 3 clears) and 1 action remaining. Things can go wrong with that - clears can be killed before then - but the potential is much greater this way.
Plus, it's noteworthy that BW is voting you, we find out he's a vig, and you immediately want to lock him up indefinitely...
I'm liking these posts from Persivul a lot here lately.
In post 246, drmyshottyizsik wrote:I'm not a vig but I'm not sure I would cc if I were, however we can't lynch him. But I will say the if he is scum and fake claiming and the reall vig is just hiding jailkeeping him would stop the real vig from taking him out and it will also stop a cop investigating him. Again I don't think we can lynch him today, but the vig claim and the way he asked for the night to go would be a very good scum fake claim, we need to remember that in the following days.
A good post from Dr as well. It all makes sense to me.
Using the JK to lock him up would be good if we didn't have limits. Because of the fact that we have shared limits makes this really bad in my opinion. The biggest thing is opportunity cost. To keep "confirmed" town safe, we have to give up investigation results, which is much better I think. Also, if the real vig did not counterclaim, he may try to shoot them in the night. This is put against the scum doc, but it may use up their uses on whether they shoot or not... Overall, I think not jailing him is best.
I'm also starting to agree wgeurts is prob scum. VOTE: wgeurts
P-edit: Yeah I agree here. I may not agree or fully understand what all you're doing, but for right now, current evidence is supporting your side here.
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Post #275 (isolation #14) » Mon Apr 04, 2016 8:04 pm
Postby Clumsy »
Anen, I'm not really liking how much talking you're doing about PR actions. Talking about it too much at this point helps scum a lot. By saying this, you're setting up the Mafia Framer to land a hit. You're repeatedly trying to lead bad plays here. FOS.
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Post #446 (isolation #16) » Thu Apr 07, 2016 2:32 pm
Postby Clumsy »
Here's my thoughts so far. Blacle, Persivul, Anen, and Wgeurts all look kinda bad to me. I feel like at least 1 of these is scum. However, something else is bothering me. Why do some of them look SO bad on D1? I'm worried that scum is hiding on the fringes during all of this confusion. Persivul and Blade are stirring up quite a bit, but unless this leads to catching out scum, it's just causing clutter and confusion. Deadline is getting closer, and I think we need to consolidate on these cases and make a decision. Really hoping for either Kain to get in here or for the replacement to arrive and give another take on things.
In post 417, Persivul wrote:Just ran across this from gurts in the discussion forum:
People should stop trying to act townie intentionally as town, due to that a meta can form with "how town should act" which scum players of a certain level can easily replicate as their scum-game. People should just play as they do naturally. That way people are forced to look genuine as scum which is harder and not just meet a set of standards.
Why aren't you following your own advice? You expect people to do certain things you consider townie even if they don't feel like doing it naturally.
VOTE: wgeurts
Immediately after the vote count, Persivul hops from a failing wagon to one that might have some traction, and also happens to be one of those voting/casing against him. It's the second biggest wagon, the first being his own. This strikes me as somewhat desperate self perseverance. To be fair though, he might have some valid points that may need some considering. I'm exhausted now though, so later on I'll look through some more and see what I think.
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Post #518 (isolation #17) » Fri Apr 08, 2016 12:28 pm
Postby Clumsy »
We need to start deciding who to lynch with deadline coming up. I'm up for one of Wgeurts/Anen/Persivul. I'm not really up for any others at the moment. We haven't gotten enough out of Kain's slot to make a decision, consider that null. Same with Masq I think, although I could see more of a scum coasting here than with Kain.
Maxous is rubbing me slightly the wrong way again.
In post 514, Maxous wrote:sorry if i'm glazing over this a bit but I still prefer a lynch among {KainTepes, Texcat, Masquerade} if at all possible
All three he's got here are not among the top three for the game. While not necessarily indicative, does seem like scum distancing from the lynch today. While we're on the subject, I could see Anen trying to distance from Wgeurts with this. An early bus could be possible. I wouldn't totally discount him if Wgeurts is lynched and ends up scum.
Right now I feel pretty good about Shotty, my vote won't go here without some solid convincing.
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Post #553 (isolation #20) » Sat Apr 09, 2016 6:12 pm
Postby Clumsy »
In post 542, BlacleWorks wrote:It is OMGUS: Oh My God Your Scum. The suddenly realization that someone is scum with no logical progression. It is the oldest scumtell... LOL VOTE: drmyshottyizsick
Wait... I thought it was Oh My God You Suck? Voting for someone who voted for you?
I'm still for Wgeurts, but any of the other 2 I posted before would be okay by me if that's what consensus is. I don't think my vote will go to Shotty today either.
@Mod: If/when we get a replacement, will there be extra time for that slot to weigh in with us before deadline?
Anen, just... damn it man. I checked out E.B.O.N.Y., and I'm hooked now. I love puzzles, and this is right up my alley. I know what I'm going to be busy with in my down time from now on.
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Post #572 (isolation #21) » Sun Apr 10, 2016 11:08 am
Postby Clumsy »
We're trying to get input from other members. I'm personally hoping for the replacement to get in here and weigh in. Why are you so impatient to get it done? I would think any vote parking would be parked already, wouldn't it?
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Post #579 (isolation #23) » Sun Apr 10, 2016 2:05 pm
Postby Clumsy »
I've already given my list in order of who I want. I'm okay with any of those. Anyone else's lynch will have to be well reasoned for me to switch. Just need everyone else to come to a final stance.
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Post #647 (isolation #24) » Thu Apr 14, 2016 8:35 am
Postby Clumsy »
I honestly didn't think Shotty was scum. I was townreading him, and against his wagon completely. I also was townreading Alex, and now both are dead. I wanted a lynch on Wgeurts, and his end of day stuff really pinged me badly too. Obviously though, I was wrong with Shotty, which really surprised me. There's not a whole lot you CAN do when you're the only one on a wagon that you think is scum and the leading wagon has people that are pretty confident it seemed. I didn't agree, so I didn't vote there, but I don't think I could have swayed a vote on Wgeurts. I suppose that's a good thing though. Also, Persivul, where exactly am I not on a major wagon while also no one else is either?
Alex, who is now confirmed town, was not on either of the main wagons here either. Also have Max and Kain again. Where do you have down in your notes that it was only shotty and me?
Anything further back than that doesn't seem relevant.
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Post #650 (isolation #26) » Thu Apr 14, 2016 9:03 am
Postby Clumsy »
Ah, by major you meant L-1. I thought you meant any of the leading wagons. Makes a bit more sense now. However (and this doesn't really mean much because WIFOM and others) I would think that if I was scum and my buddy got voted up, I would be on the next best wagon to counter it (yours) or on his to bus. It would have been easier to push one onto you with your weird all over the place voting and all, but I was still on Wgeurts because he's my strongest read at the time. Still is actually.
VOTE: Wgeurts
Also, everyone else, keep in mind Wgeurts is on V/LA.
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Post #652 (isolation #27) » Thu Apr 14, 2016 9:23 am
Postby Clumsy »
In post 636, chilledtea wrote:Blacle, did you take out alex? Cause I was scumreading him throughout day 1.
VOTE: masquerade
In post 637, Persivul wrote:That's a weird question considering their was only 1 kill. With the roles it's possible that that was a vig shot, but it seems more likely it's the NK.
VOTE: wgeurts
This is actually a good point. Why are you assuming it was Blacle? The only way for that to be true is if the mafia member was jailed, and Blacle shot Alex. Odds of that are not amazing.
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Post #660 (isolation #30) » Thu Apr 14, 2016 12:27 pm
Postby Clumsy »
So either
-Maf Doc healed Masq, which means Masq is the rolecop.
-JK jailed Blacle, which is a bad move because it wastes shots and ties up 2 of our PRs
-JK jailed Masq to see if there would be a no kill, and caused this mess.
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Post #677 (isolation #33) » Thu Apr 14, 2016 1:17 pm
Postby Clumsy »
Yeah, doesn't make sense.
Either, spend a point and save your life (and offer it during the day? ???)
Don't spend the point, die and be proven.
OR even jail someone else you think is mafia? I would have gone for this or nothing. You could check someone, and see if there was a no kill from mafia. Maybe crumb who you were jailing the day before. Bam, game solved, gg. But jailing the vig is what you went for?
I'm not buying this. It seems like scum in a corner.
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Post #682 (isolation #34) » Thu Apr 14, 2016 1:34 pm
Postby Clumsy »
Agh, deleted my own reply. >_<
I still want a CC. Reasons being
It gives us a 100% on scum. Either Masq, or the CC will be scum. That's good for us.
It makes 2 confirmed town. Even if they now have targets, there's only going to be 1 kill.
Makes it easier for the cop. Bam, 1 less person to check.
If we get a CC, scum is hung, we have a ton of time to get the right person. I think it'll solidify the win. However...
If we don't get a CC, and Masq is JK, and we hang them... It could quickly turn south for us. I think it's safer to wait on a CC.
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Post #687 (isolation #36) » Thu Apr 14, 2016 2:12 pm
Postby Clumsy »
Mechanics
Daystart
"X" starts as 4, and decreases with each shot spent by one of the town power roles.
"Y" starts as 4, and decreases with each shot spent by one of the mafia power roles.
If X or Y goes below 0 in one night, all actions by that team will fail and no shots will be spent.
Every time a Town Power Role dies, X increases by 1.
Every time a Mafia Member dies, Y increases by 1.
Shots are expended regardless of action outcome (success/blocked/missed) unless prevented by #4 above.
Actions are resolved using Natural Action Resolution
I missed this part of the mechanics. So not only did Masq (supposedly) use a shot to save their life and block our vig, but also wasted the vig shot. That's... Ugh. Even worse. So yeah, 1-2 shots, most likely 1 left.
In post 696, Persivul wrote:This is a well-designed setup. I've been trying to run out optimum PR strategy but it's really tough. For instance, you first think scum would want to kill claimed PRs as they're conftown, but since that would give more shots to the cop, no, that's not necessarily the case.
Scum still isn't going to want conftown around in lylo though. They're going to have to kill at least 2 of us to make sure they have a chance of having another unknown player in lylo. The cop should stay hidden at all costs and we need to be careful about running anyone to a claim anymore.
I kinda agree with Anen about wgeurts, I still think he could be scum. I also still have a scumlean on clumsy, but it;s gotten less because I kinda got the feeling he's awkward town? Not sure yet. Kuroi is mostly focused defending himself, maybe if he posted some reads I wouldn't agree with cakez. I didn't like the way Persivul jumped on my wagon. A page earlier he agreed with me on my clumsy-read and I felt he wanted to work with me and the next page he completely turns around. Also, what scum ever kills the person that is all over them outside newbie games? Seriously, that's like the biggest tell in the book. And I think he knows better.
I just realized something. His 710 it looks faked to me. Why would he comment on that? Also, there are sample rolepm's. Scum don;t have daytalk. So it feels like a way to pretend you look like you don't know. While you very well could as either alignment. (And with 3 scum pr's vs 3 town pr's daytalk wouldn't even make sense balance-wise)
Well, my scumread on Persivul is now stronger than on wgeurts. I don't believe they're scum together, so this is really conflicting my brains..
I'm not going to vote yet, I'll give wgeurts and Persivul a chance to respond and redeem themselves. I'll look into Kuroi and clumsy again, and I'd like it if some other people could try harder to obvtown themselves because right now I don't have really strong townreads anymore.
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Post #731 (isolation #38) » Fri Apr 15, 2016 9:41 am
Postby Clumsy »
Phone post. This should be fixed. Bad reception here.
In post 712, Masquerade wrote:
I kinda agree with Anen about wgeurts, I still think he could be scum. I also still have a scumlean on clumsy, but it;s gotten less because I kinda got the feeling he's awkward town? Not sure yet. Kuroi is mostly focused defending himself, maybe if he posted some reads I wouldn't agree with cakez. I didn't like the way Persivul jumped on my wagon. A page earlier he agreed with me on my clumsy-read and I felt he wanted to work with me and the next page he completely turns around. Also, what scum ever kills the person that is all over them outside newbie games? Seriously, that's like the biggest tell in the book. And I think he knows better.
I just realized something. His 710 it looks faked to me. Why would he comment on that? Also, there are sample rolepm's. Scum don;t have daytalk. So it feels like a way to pretend you look like you don't know. While you very well could as either alignment. (And with 3 scum pr's vs 3 town pr's daytalk wouldn't even make sense balance-wise)
Well, my scumread on Persivul is now stronger than on wgeurts. I don't believe they're scum together, so this is really conflicting my brains..
I'm not going to vote yet, I'll give wgeurts and Persivul a chance to respond and redeem themselves. I'll look into Kuroi and clumsy again, and I'd like it if some other people could try harder to obvtown themselves because right now I don't have really strong townreads anymore.
I'm hearing the awkward town thing a lot about me lately. Would you mind going into more detail after the game about it so I can work on it?
I agree with your point about 710, seemed very odd to me. I didn't think to check the sample roles for that, so I didn't know either, but the way it's written is weird. Seems stiff.
This is where I'm at.
{Blade, Masq (no ccs)}
{Maxous}
{Anen, Sir Cakes}
{Kuroi, Persivul}
{Wgeurts}
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Post #798 (isolation #41) » Sun Apr 17, 2016 5:04 am
Postby Clumsy »
I have service for a little bit. I think I know what's going on. If so... That's brilliant. Don't push the subject any more. My number 1 lynch is still Wgeurts I think.
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Post #922 (isolation #45) » Sat Apr 23, 2016 5:32 am
Postby Clumsy »
In post 920, SirCakez wrote:My lynch pool today was going to be (Max, Chilled, Clumsy) but I think Ranger's right that that was a crumb clear. I remember thinking it was a bizarre townread at the time, makes much more sense if she had a clear on him.
So then yeah Max or Clumsy is fine for the lynch today.
Yeah, I think it's a good bet that was a crumb.
In post 912, Ranger wrote:For the record, I'll need to check the isos side by side in detail to confirm, but at a glance, Clumsy's scum iso in this game holds a great resemblance to his play this game.
How does it exactly? Like, actual question.
I'm a little out of touch with this game (partially because of our last game Ranger), so I'm gonna re-read everything and get a fresh look. This will have to be tomorrow probably, have D&D with friends today. I'll get back to you on it.
This is good. There are three un-confirmed names at the beginning of the Shotty-wagon. I doubt there would have been a Bus there. (Although, there may be a small chance that Persivul is scum too and scums wanted to keep him alive instead of Shotty...?) The Maxous-hammer is something which might have come from a scum to gain town-cred. Clumsy was away.
FoS Names:
Clumsy, Maxous, ?Persivul
I could see it making sense with Persivul&Co wanting Shotty hung instead of him. If Pers is scum, he's either the doc or the rolecop, either of which I think is more powerful than the Framer. Rolecop clears PR targets for scum every night, Doc ensures Rolecop doesn't die to vig. Framer has a small chance of success (targeting 1 of however many players, and the cop has to target the SAME one the same night, not great odds.) I could buy this theory. Let me look into this and read some posts under the assumption that Persivul is scum.
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Post #932 (isolation #47) » Sun Apr 24, 2016 5:31 am
Postby Clumsy »
Disclaimer. This entire post was made by reading some key points back through with the assumption that Persivul is scum, to look for associatives.
In post 354, SirCakez wrote:Why can't I get this shotty wagon going jeez
Texcat wagon stinks.
This feels a little weird... It seems like he's trying to get noticed for pushing this wagon, not for the wagon itself.
In post 473, SirCakez wrote:Wgeurts we're not lynching the Vig :/
Persivul - you literally went from posting a miniwall about KT to voting wgeurts in 3 posts. What's up there?
This feels like scum pushing scum. When I've pushed my buddies before, it's been a very light tap, like this one. Persivul gave a light, 1 line response, and it received no response from Cakez.
In post 535, SirCakez wrote:Wgeurts why not?
TeX it's really obvious if you read the game. His only contributions are defending himself whenever someone accuses him, no scumhunting at all.
Again, this feels like setting up a bus. There's not really a big case from Cakez, just one or two points, with a "It's really obvious to anyone" thrown in.
One more thing is that through his posts, I think the only people he's voted for (besides Shotty, which this theory is calling a bus) are now confirmed to be town. Correct me if I'm wrong here though please. This isn't as big a point though, since if you're on all major wagons and all wagons got town killed, it's kind of a given.
So, in short, under the assumption that Persivul is scum (unproven), I could see a scum team of Shotty, Pers, and Cakez. I think I'll do more of these with assumptions of different people being scum, it helps me draw associatives this way.
In post 518, Clumsy wrote:All three he's got here are not among the top three for the game. While not necessarily indicative, does seem like scum distancing from the lynch today.
we still have 3 days left which is plenty of time.
no need to panic and start compromising just yet
we're just stalling till the deadline at this point
These are just 20 posts away, and the first you argue that we have plenty of time, the second is saying that we're just stalling (as in, we should just end it now.) Why did this change?
In post 514, Maxous wrote:sorry if i'm glazing over this a bit but I still prefer a lynch among {KainTepes, Texcat, Masquerade} if at all possible
Why the hammer here? Weren't you townreading Shotty? Pretty hard actually.
In post 561, Maxous wrote:can nobody hammer until KT gets replaced anyway please?
shotty and pers are both fairly strong town-reads at the moment.
In post 565, Maxous wrote:I thought shotty's push on Kuroi and Persivul was decently reasoned and he doesn't come across as being opportunistic at all regarding pushes or votes.
his #380 was antagonistic to a lot of players (even the ones he was calling town!) in his readlist which I feel like is something scum wouldn't want to do.
I know people are voting him for low content but I think it's just a lazy playstyle more than anything.
-
For Persivul, it's mostly just tonal. Stuff like #426 sounds genuine for example.
I can't really articulate this one, sorry.
I do agree with his latest read-list for the most part though.
I kind-of think this might be a rolecop breadcrumbing technique. It looks like it, especially given the follow-through in 864.
...How exactly is a rolecop breadcrumbing technique? What would I be crumbing? Why would I be crumbing it?
You think the scum are between me and Maxous, and you think I might be his partner, correct? What are your other thoughts, because at least with my slot, this is wrong. Obviously anyone would say that, but given that you replaced into the last town PR, you're dying tonight I would think. What other teams could you see? What about Persivul? Why is no one talking about Anen or Cakez?
How exactly is this post bad? The confirmed vig just said that they shot at them, and they didn't die. What would you like if not a claim as the votes come pouring in? Just a quicklynch? Not persuing the lead at all?
In post 656, BlacleWorks wrote:I shot at Masquerade. He's alive. He got docced or I got Jk'd or he got Jk'd If he isnt the cop he has no valuable pr for town. I'd say its best to lynch masquerade because it will not expose our JK and it will get rid of a player who likely scum due to the interraction between him and shotty in twilight.
I have not read any of the day so far. But I wanted to go ahead and say this before anybody influences me.
Clumsy wrote:...How exactly is a rolecop breadcrumbing technique?
Do the mafia have daytalk in this setup?
If not...well, we know they almost certainly got a rolecop result on texcat N2.
And if the rolecop were lynched, they'd need to convey their result before the lynch.
The question just looked...a bit awkward and out of place, especially given 864.
I don't think they do. At least, in the sample PMs, they don't have it listed. Yes, the rolecop would have to convey the result. But why would it be that question to signal the rest of the scum team? Especially if it looks out of place? Why not make it something like "I'll include the word 'body' if he's the cop, 'head' if he's the doc, or 'bottom' if he's JK in my first post of the day"?
And 864 was in regards to the "This is better to not be talked about" thing the day before that. Chilled Tea was there for that, and he thought he got it. I did too. The flip that night showed me that what I thought was going on was wrong.
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Post #954 (isolation #54) » Sun Apr 24, 2016 7:27 pm
Postby Clumsy »
In post 781, BlacleWorks wrote:I am correct. We gave 2 to 3 shots. I do not care how it may appear how I came into this knowledge. What matters is that I am correct. I don't make shit easy for scum and give out free info. Their is a reason I come off as anti-town and that is because the site meta of town play is just horrific and plays right into scum hands in any scum meta.
Site meta is so fucking horrible that you cannot avoid a day one lynch as a PR by claiming VT. On forum mafia the first lynch is supposed to be completely random and it being completely random is another way of catching scum. Because scum doesn't want to die. If its left up to chances the chances of them dying are much higher than any of us catching scum. As a matter of fact we catch scum by their slips and not by anything else. So as long as scum doesn't say anything overly scummy they won't get lynched easily. So they have a much better chance of not being lynched when it is random.
That being said. Half of you don't even know how to properly argue and retreat after a certain level of frustration which makes it very hard to read a persons alignment when you don't care for or don't know of the site meta town reads. From my perspective town reads are shoddy at best and I have a constant scum read on everyone that fluctuates. Whoever is the most scummy is the scum as far as I am concerned so please stop with the posturing its sickening. If town would simply behaves in a manner that reflects their alignment and stop trying to game each other we might be able to get some god damn where without scum being as obvious as that man we lynched yesterday.
P-Edit:
If what you believe is true please explain to me Tex Cat why is alexcellent is dead we do not have 2 to 3 shots left? Please explain to me that I am incorrect on how we have 2 to 3 shots left. Please for a second recognize that my result is the same as yours.
It is only when I was asked how I came to that result that it appeared that I was wrong. Do you see that it is obvious that I would not come to that answer with the math I provided. It is clear that I am not here to play this game for you. What strikes me as odd is that if you all actually looked back and read the rules you would know that my answer is correct and would just shut the fuck up about and think. "thats odd." But nope you make the assumption about an actions intentions that you know nothing about.
This is what we like to refer to as a BIAS. From here on if refuse to recognize that your an idiot for not seeing past this rouse than what you are suffering from is CONFIRMATION BIAS.
Town should not be trying to correct town. Town should be trying to correct scum because scum just might slip. You guys know I am town so please if you are not scum stop playing like scumlords. I swear it's like your all caught under the "Well if I gotta be VT might as well work on my scum game." spell.
Specifically what I bolded. This is what I thought was going down.
Blade had a very strong scumread on Masq. Almost 100% sure. Announced that he would shoot Masq that night.
At night, -didn't actually do anything-. Mafia doc healed Masq. Morning came, claimed to shoot Masq, said they didn't die. Votes. Masq is put in jeopardy, and in Blade's mind, Masq is scum, and will probably claim a town PR to at least fish out the real one for the scum team. Blade actually advocates for a hanging WITHOUT CC.
In post 676, BlacleWorks wrote:Honestly that doesn't make any sense JK doesn't need to CC lynch this guy today. One of the people the framer told us to look at got investigated last night is likely the Cop, and Kuroi/Wgeurts is likely the mafia doc.
What I thought was going on was that Blade faked a shot, and with scum thinking they were caught, made a town PR claim. So, I thought Blade caught a scum without using any shots and without exposing the real town PR. Amazingly brilliant play in my mind. Plan from there was to keep the JK un-CC'd, catch the rest of the scum, and then drop the hammer (if Blade died, me or Chilled who I thought also caught on would reveal this) and get Masq. In the meantime let them keep going as "Jail Keeper" and see if slips led to catching the others.
...When Masq died and actually was the JK, this obviously fell apart. And I think I'm back at having no idea what he meant.
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Post #956 (isolation #55) » Sun Apr 24, 2016 7:34 pm
Postby Clumsy »
...It's a bad stance to be suspicious of the person the confirmed vig shot at and didn't die when mafia has a doctor? I'm really not understanding this here Ranger.
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Post #957 (isolation #56) » Sun Apr 24, 2016 8:03 pm
Postby Clumsy »
Also, something to keep in mind for everyone: While it's highly likely that Chilled is town, don't 100% rule out the possibility. A small slip like this could cost the game. I'm of the impression that Chilled is town based on that post by the cop, but it could be a misunderstanding. Don't just 100% dismiss it.
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Post #962 (isolation #57) » Mon Apr 25, 2016 1:51 am
Postby Clumsy »
Guys, that's not my final conclusion. That's 1 theory while I looked at 1 person while assuming Pers was scum. I'm going through everyone one at a time, and seeing which one fits best. I'm not done yet. I moved onto Max and found some things I wanted cleared up to make a theory on him, and to see if it fit better or worse than this one. Then I was going to move onto Anen, etc. Ran out of time, going back to it after I get some time after work.
In post 932, Clumsy wrote:
So, in short, under the assumption that Persivul is scum (unproven), I could see a scum team of Shotty, Pers, and Cakez.
I think I'll do more of these with assumptions of different people being scum, it helps me draw associatives this way.
In post 932, Clumsy wrote:So, in short, under the assumption that Persivul is scum (unproven), I could see a scum team of Shotty, Pers, and Cakez. I think I'll do more of these with assumptions of different people being scum, it helps me draw associatives this way.
The assumption would be okay if the conclusion weren't that weird.
And this doesn't match, not even remotely, your later posts.
Firstly, your 934 is about Maxous. You try to associate him with Shotty, which seems to be a "just in case" move if both of you are scum.[/b]
It's not conflicting. The theory about Pers and Cakez is just that, a theory. I'm exploring the options. That was not my final answer.