Open 645: C9++ - Game Over

[Ranger]

{Riddleton, Smithereens, davesaz}
{Bins}
{Kappy, Umlaut}
{a plain farmer}
{Loopdan}
{LicketyQuickety}
1.

[Ranger]

{Riddleton, Smithereens, davesaz}
{Bins}
{Kappy, Umlaut, Dunnstral}
{a plain farmer}
{Loopdan}
{LicketyQuickety}
2.

[Ranger]

^Actually, move Dunnstral up a tier.

[Ranger]

Did I say Bins tier?
Sorry.
{Dunnstral, Zachstral}
{Riddleton, Smithereens, davesaz}
{Bins}
{Kappy, Umlaut}
{a plain farmer}
{Loopdan}
{LicketyQuickety}
I mean Zachstral tier.
3.
VOTE: LicketyQuickety.

[Ranger]

Come 'ere ranger. Some kid tied himself to you and I want to know what it means.

You kids and your insistence players scumslip.
My take?
{Dunnstral, Zachstral}
{Riddleton, Smithereens, davesaz}
{Bins}
{Kappy, Umlaut}
{Transcend}
{a plain farmer}
{Loopdan}
{LicketyQuickety}
Maybe this will enlighten you.

[Ranger]

Dunnstral come lynch LicketyQuickety Kappy isn't gonna happen.

[Ranger]

But how did you manage to sort out so many players into such a clear, definite ranking?

I wouldn't say I'm the most competent mafia player that's ever existed. (For instance, I still maintain burden of proficiency on me is a fallacy.)

However, there's a difference between being humble and being a liar. I

am

one of the better scumhunters on this site. I am not infallible, I can be wrong, but I'd make no progress if I assumed I was wrong. So until I have reason not to...I'm going to trust in my skills at reading the RVS and early-game.

[Ranger]

If you're one of the 'better' scum hunters you're going to have to bus often as mafia to keep up that appearance.

No, I hate bussing.

The only times I've bussed are when I thought I was going down, and that through the bus, I would maybe make my partner look town.

(This has never worked as intended, though it came close once!)

And if you're going to insist Lickety then I'm going to insist you give something more than 'gut feeling.'

Okay. I have an N0 guilty on LicketyQuickety. There ya go. More than gut.

I'm curious for instance how you could possibly town read me when I don't think you know a thing about me.

I honestly couldn't care less who you are.
Your play is town.
That's all I need to know.

[Ranger]

Haven't seen you give a reason for this vote yet.

This is true.

And what happens when Ranger is Scum?

Town wins!

the dude's probably shit town.

As scum, LicketyQuickety

thrives

, absolutely

thrives

in town assuming this. He will throw bad reads around, make a lot of noise, and people will basically go, "terrible" but also "not scum", allowing him to push an incredibly pro-scum agenda and get away with it.

So no.
Not shit town.
Just blatant scum.

I have caught scum based on a confirm before.

Funny, so have I!
You'd know, you were there.
As the scum I caught.

[Ranger]

In Open 635, she posted a super-early read list as usual, and her biggest "scumread" was actually scum.

This was an action specifically preplanned by RadiantCowbells, the player in question, during the pregame. We had decided we were going to start the game with distancing and gradually warm up into a townread of each other. We ended up doing exactly that, as he had planned. Was his idea, would never have occurred otherwise.

[Ranger]

Thought I posted this when just posting my earlier wall.
Guess I didn't.
{Dunnstral, Zachstral, Smithereens, Transcend}
{Riddleton, davesaz, Bins}
{Kappy}
{Umlaut}
{a plain farmer}
{Loopdan}
{LicketyQuickety}

[Ranger]

gonna want a reason for them being in the same tier, and a good one.

Okay, so.
I don't think it's one day's worth of a changed diet suddenly making me high.
I honestly, seriously just feel like I hit a zone. A zone where all of my reads are really, really good right now.

All of them feel so...

right

.
I really like your posting.
Bins I like too.
Smithereens did something I don't think scum would do.
Transcend has been posting in a way I just don't see from scum.
Dunnstral is the same but more.
Kappy feels like town but not by much.
Umlaut actually looks like scum, but not groupscum.
a plain farmer really looks like scum.
Loopdan's even more of a scumread.
And LicketyQuickety is hard-scum.

It just all feels so RIGHT.

[Ranger]

(There's a reason 372 is a scumclaim. Free town points to the player who can figure out why!)

[Ranger]

how does he play as town?

A bit of a nut, admittedly.
He hydraed with Titus to learn from her and get better at moonlogic.
Dead serious.

But as scum, he hyper-exaggerates these traits.

Woah you can't put them in the same tier as Zach.

Pfft, holding a double-standard like that. You had no problem when I put you with Zach! :P

Why is Riddle town? Is that subject to change once they start posting

It is subject to change once posting begins, but I don't think it will change to be perfectly honest. Like I said, I really feel like my reads are good right now, so I can explain if you'd like.

[Ranger]

Titus logic.
Crazy logic.
Logic that needs air quotes around it to actually be called logic.

You get the idea.

[Ranger]

MOD: V/LA for today, maybe tomorrow.

Don't have the time to post today, probably will have the time tomorrow but may not, circumstances depending.

[Ranger]

So I finally earned my title {Top Tier}!
It's a hard-coded title, too.
Anyone can earn it.
All they need is:

1. 25 games worth of perfect reads,
2. 20 times nightkilled by scum, including at least once AS scum (multiball),
3. And 25 town victories.

If you have fulfilled these conditions, you too will earn the title {Top Tier}! It's a level beyond Survivor.

;)

(Reading.)

[Ranger]

If you have something that nails scum on Day 1, why hold it in?

Because I want people to guess.

At any time, I can explain why 372 (among others) was a scumclaim from LicketyQuickety.

But it means more if other people look at the post and try to figure out what in it was so egregious.

You'll understand better when you're older.

He's plenty old enough. That's the problem.

[Ranger]

You guys have a lot of faith in Ranger's FBI profiling crystal 8-ball of reads

Not unjustified!

I'm reading these pages mostly as a formality in case there's something truly ~groundbreaking~ in the next 12 pages.

It is exactly that.

I don't see my reads changing, because--at least in this game--I feel really, really good about them.

I wouldn't consider it a scumslip

I would! Not exactly for that reason, but pretty close.
{Dunnstral, Zachstral, Smithereens, Transcend}
{Riddleton, davesaz, Bins}
{Kappy}
{Umlaut, a plain farmer}
{Loopdan}
{LicketyQuickety}
This is both Umlaut going down and a plain farmer going up.

[Ranger]

{Dunnstral, Zachstral, Smithereens, Transcend}
{Riddleton, davesaz, Bins}
{Umlaut, a plain farmer, iraonavp}
{texcat}
{LicketyQuickety}
That's iraonavp/Kappy going down.

[Ranger]

{Dunnstral, Zachstral, Smithereens, Transcend}
{Riddleton, davesaz, Bins}
{a plain farmer}
{texcat}
{Umlaut, iraonavp}
{LicketyQuickety}
This is mostly from iraonavp, with gut things like 488.

[Ranger]

Our newcomer is hilariously awkward and I'm not quite sure what to make of it

"Dude, irao! You're being ridiculously obvscum and dragging the whole team down with your reads! Stop!"

That's literally how I read this post.

Hmm... if only there was something a bunch of people with similar opinions could do. A wager, perhaps...? Or was there something else...?

^I'll take you up on this if it still stands, once I'm caught up.

[Ranger]

I still want to make a longer post on Dave but Ira is just painfully obvscum. I have to think about whether he and Dave make sense as a scum team though.

^Scum cutting their losses, btw.

VOTE: iraonavp.

[Ranger]

OK so I have mixed feelings about both Ira and LQ, not sure I'd want to lynch them

No, Dunnstral.
You were doing good.
Your work was good.
Your reads were right.
Your push was solid.

You're experiencing doubt.
Paranoia.
This is only natural.
It is, however, just that.

Come back. ;_;

Actually Farmer isn't a bad vote right now

I get why you think that.
I thought so too.

But I don't think so anymore.

[Ranger]

Oh the whole LQ thing... people think he's scum for his reads

Never said this.

I'd have to double-check to be sure, but I'm fairly certain his reads don't factor in at all. IF they did, it'd be only slightly. It's definitely ~other stuff~.

[Ranger]

I don't think this is what you have been intentionally doing. Your questions are really generic and don't seek to elicit responses that would allow you or anyone reading to find scum. I've been reading what people have been responding to you, and largely there isn't anything AI. In short, your scum hunting, if that's what you're trying to do, isn't going to get the results you're after.

^The conclusion you should be reaching from this is that LicketyQuickety is scum.

I'm interested in your opinion on LQ now

Still the same, but an iraonavp lynch is just as good for lynching scum, so that's why I moved.

Umlaut is scum with Ira?

I think so, yes.

To be blunt...no offense meant, but in {Umlaut, LicketyQuickety, texcat, iraonavp}, the most competent player

by far

is Umlaut.
Umlaut sees LQ's play, and recognizes that it may or may not be good enough to survive, so he takes the stance that LQ may or may not be scum: waiting to see which way he needs to go.
Umlaut sees iraonavp's hilariously terrible play, and recognizes that it will expose the whole scumteam if left unchecked. He makes an initial effort to try and limit this, but when iraonavp continues to make a bunch of moves that Umlaut sees as bad, he does the only smart move as scum: cut his losses and in no uncertain terms leave iraonavp out to be shredded by wolves.

Ranger, can you give some explanation of why Transcend is in your top read tier?

Sure, but it'll have to wait. I'm coming off of V/LA and catching up in all of my games, and frankly, I'm potentially in a race against time. I'm having some bad weather here, so it's fully possible I'll lose power, and if that happens before I've finished all my games, would be...a bit awkward.

[Ranger]

if you've nailed the entire scum team in this paragraph I'm going to cut myself.

Please don't.

That's not a good habit.

I agree that Ira is scum, you make an interesting point about Umlaut but I want to know this proof you had that LQ is scum.

Considering this is something that came off of new content posted after I was on V/LA, no. Not the proof I had. It is, however, something that adds to my reasoning.

[Ranger]

mmm, does this read like town newb to anyone else?

Nope, just false bravado.

[Ranger]

What rules those out as options?

A combination of timing (who you push and when), and associations (what

they

say).

It's fully possible you'd be town. After all, I have four names I'm suspicious of, and only three can be on a team. It's just not the scenario I view as most likely at the moment.

It reads as newb for sure, but not specifically town newb.

Check iraon's game history.
Not a newb.

[Ranger]

Wait, what's your fourth scumread? I'd assume Tex based on the order of your last read list, but why?

texcat replaced Loopdan, who was incredibly scummy. Strike one.
Since then, texcat has continued to do basically nothing, and this runs contrary to the town-texcat I've become familiar with. Strike two.
Furthermore, texcat has bad interactions with LQ and iraonavp. Strike three.

You appear to have a vested interest in his lynch :\

Indeed I do! It's called "lynching scum". You should try it some time, you certainly aren't on Transcend!

[Ranger]

RadiantCowbells (who made this) replaces Riddleton and Titus replaces Transcend

Hey, guys!
Guess what?
For the first game in, like, forever, all three of us are town!

No, seriously!

You can doubt me if you like, but once you'll read the thread you'll see it yourself.
We're town. Dunnstral is IC-levels of conftown. Please trust me on that read. Smithereens is also IC-levels of conftown to me.
Again, some trust is required.

You should be able to read davesaz without me yelling down your throats, but I trust Bins to be town. Not to IC levels, but enough that if you tell me you scumread her, I'll ask you to table it for a future day please.

A plain farmer is scummy, but I currently think is mislynch bait.

The scum can be found in {texcat/Loopdan, Umlaut, iraonavp, LicketyQuickety}. I'd lynch any of those four in a heartbeat, so focus your attention there. I'm definitely not wrong on all of them and I actually really really REALLY feel good about being right on three of them so I'd prefer you help me rather than work against me because I am town, you two are town, seriously don't waste this opportunity with stupid paranoia and please work with me on my reads because as far as I'm concerned if you don't screw this up we've got a game-winning combo here.

[Ranger]

How so?

Mostly on their end, but you get some really icky posts like 620 from texcat. 622 as well.

[Ranger]

And "currently"?

Yes, because originally I thought a plain farmer was just simply scum.
That is currently not the case.

[Ranger]

Ranger, I've been wanting this for a while, but could you lay out the case vs LQ? I've been harboring self doubt on my personal appraisal of him but now Titus walks in and declares him town. You had a strong scum read on him too iirc so surely it's something worth discussing?

Sure, it'll have to wait though.

It's kind-of late.

[Ranger]

A little nervous about Ranger's appeal to own authority plus "gee how can anyone miss this stuff".

Deal with it.
I'm right. I know I am. Maybe not entirely, maybe not 100%, but right enough where I should be sheeped.

[Ranger]

So, 578, 796, and 801 are bad for tex?

Among others, yes.

[Ranger]

I kind-of want to egg someone into hammering, just because I don't trust you all and I think some moron will unvote and then not revote, so the iraonavp wagon which is so close to going through...won't actually go through.

But I want to maintain my faith in humanity, so instead, I'll trust that not to happen, so no problem with L-1, and waiting for RC to get caught up.

[Ranger]

LQ, That is IIoA.

Yes it is!

The conclusion you should be reaching from LicketyQuickety doing IIoA is...

...Yeah.

I am at iraonvp, Dave, Bins but Bins is the weakest.

Explain davesaz to me.
I have been letting people blindly attack him because they don't have familiarity with him, not the same level of familiarity you and I do, anyway. So I need to know why you're

not

seeing the same things I am there.

[Ranger]

ok imagine i quote your entire ISO
and under it i write
"and see here, a whole bunch of posts that could of come from scum and nothing town motivated."

^Considering this is my unstated reasoning for why LicketyQuickety is scum, perfectly articulated by Bins, I would be very, very,

very

impressed if she were actually scum.

Also, bonus points for who can see the scumclaim in 1061.

VOTE: Ranger

No.

Just no.

I don't have any other words to say about this, RC.
Just. No.

[Ranger]

By the way, Zach, your play reminds me of a couple of other ICs.
Named Fire Hermit and pistachi0n.
You'll understand what I mean after N1.

[Ranger]

Ranger, TItus read.

IC levels of conftown. Transcend earned that spot, Titus has done nothing to change it.

[Ranger]

Ranger, why did you ignore my change of read on ira?

I'm pretty sure I didn't, and instead said something to the effect of, "No, Dunn, come back!"

[Ranger]

I don't see another train happening like the ira one at this point so: VOTE: ira

^This was a scum vote, by the way.
VOTE: LicketyQuickety.

Hey Ranger, who should WE lynch?

All of {Umlaut, texcat, LicketyQuickety}.

I meant it yesterday. Obviously, with four names it was near-impossible for literally all of them to be scum. So I knew I was likely wrong about one. I see nothing in the flips that makes me thing I was wrong on the others.

[Ranger]

I didn't even think Dunn was THAT town in comparison to others by the end of the day : /

And that is why you aren't scum.

Dunnstral was painfully obvious town.

[Ranger]

Mod: V/LA for today, and all Wednesdays in July.

Means no posting from me until tomorrow.

[Ranger]

Do you still think Umlaut is scum?

Not as strongly, but yes. He would not be my preferred lynch, but I would lynch him in a heartbeat.

For instance, 1242 is reading me as being town for...being inconsistent? That's what I got from it, and it makes absolutely no sense whatsoever; that same series of postings could be used to make a scum case on me.

Ranger, thoughts on me so far?

As a slot? You could quite literally claim scum and I wouldn't believe you. You could claim your scumbuddies, you could say what you've discussed in your topic, you could explain what the reasoning behind the Dunnstral kill was, and I would still be calling you a liar. You're town. Period, end of discussion.

As a scumhunter? Doing good. You don't have perfect understanding. You are absolutely wrong on Smithereens. I 100% guarantee you that. I'm decently sure Titus (the Transcend slot) is town, so I don't fully agree there. Otherwise, you're seeing a lot of the same things I am. The strength behind your reads kinda sucks; aside from me, your strongest townreads are only leantown. But the positioning OF the reads looks about right.

As a commentator? That's not Ranger-style commentary, but some of it raises valid points more often than not.

[Ranger]

Davesaz is lynchbait. Nothing in this game has given me any impression that he's scum. Stop voting him.

^Not exactly this, but close enough. davesaz has, consistently, been a townread of mine.

As for lynching LQ...*points to current vote*

[Ranger]

There are people wanting to strangle Ranger rn as we speak.

There should always be a minimum of three people who want to strangle me, else I'm not doing my job! ;)

LQ was one of the players bashing on the Ira wagon because he appeared to know that Ira was town. Next minute, he goes and votes Ira, simply because he doesn't think he can kill anyone else. The point being that LQ was the only person town reading Ira on the wagon, he knew Ira was going to flip town. Therefore why did he kill Ira?

^This.

[Ranger]

A little behind from the lack of Ranger.

Sorry, been a little bit busy as of late.

Also have found that I don't really like efforting that much so on a sitewide basis I've basically been trying to return to my minimalist roots and give as little as needed.

[Ranger]

So it's impossible to judge where or why she went wrong.

Not so!

I actively encourage players guessing off of where I mark myself. I sometimes use quotes (which can make super-convenient references, since content within the quotes is often...content), sometimes use pages, but it's usually not hard even with just a naked reads list to guess where I am, as long as there's a comment nearby. For instance, this is a quote I'm responding to on page 54. If my next post was nothing but a reads list, then that tells you I either made it off of 54 or (slightly more likely) 55.

FFS ranger.

I come on when I come on. Sorry.

[Ranger]

I can't grok you townreading Smithereens, I really can't.

No, you really can't.

But what you need to do is, if you trust absolutely no other read of mine, trust me on that one. Smithereens is town. I'd rather you lynch Titus than him, and I'm not exactly gonna let a Titus lynch happen right now either. I'm very much helping on LicketyQuickety though!

[Ranger]

My attitude is that I'll listen to any read NOT Smithereens.

[Ranger]

Mod: feeling a bit under the weather

(didn't post yesterday because of it),

so V/LA today, maybe tomorrow

, depending on how long it takes to recover.

Sorry.

[Ranger]

Because if you know you're town, and you are actually behaving the way I say you are, then that behavior is ipso facto townish from your perspective, so it's kind of dumb to suspect me for calling it townish when it actually is.

Pretty sure this is a logical fallacy. Forget the name of it though.

She can only be gf, SK, or town.

And I have gone on record to say I would NEVER, EVER choose investigation immune over bulletproof as a serial killer. Because, you know...I'm

Ranger

. I tend to get nightkilled a lot...even as scum. So, not a serial killer, aside from the obvious lack of second nightkill. Also, one reason I love this setup? It is very much easily broken with simple logistics. We know there's an absolute maximum of 5-Ts, so the only possible iterations where I'd be a Godfather are {0 T, 1 T, 2 T, 5 T}. Of those, half have a serial killer. A lack of second nightkill indicates a lack of one. Leaving the only possible setups where I'd be a Godfather as {0 T, 2 T}. Time will tell with those, as will time tell with a lack of a serial killer. (Which is an assumption at this point.)

Of course, strictly speaking, objectively, there's the option I'd be scum with Titus, but in that case, lynch Titus first. Regardless, that pretty much tells you that I'm town. Titus is town. So lynch scum.

[Ranger]

{LQ, dave, Umlaut, texcat}

Literally the only name here I wouldn't lynch is dave.

[Ranger]

Ranger previously mentioned that they would not be reconsidering their read on RC. This time its you.

...While speaking to RC.
Obviously, when speaking to the person I'm not reconsidering my read on, it's a given I'm not gonna reconsider my read on them. If I had, then I'd have included "even you". But I didn't, because the implication was obvious.

If ranger is relying so heavily on their meta of me they should have 5 times that many games played with me for it to mean shit.

I don't recall stating I was scumreading you off of meta.

You're scum because you're acting like scum. It's that simple.

[Ranger]

Why is that?

Because I actually have experience with dave enough to know he's not scum.

[Ranger]

What's your case on Umlaut BTW?

Combination of gut + POE, mostly.

[Ranger]

I'm voting Ranger because they refuse to read me as a player.

I don't recall saying this.

[Ranger]

I would be blacklisting Ranger if they turn out to be Town and pre assigning a Scum read on me without looking at anything I do.

Assuming this is your prerogative, and you have that right.

It would be very wrong though.

I am reading you as scum because I think you are scum. Your RVS suggested scum. Your reactions to my reads suggested scum. Everything you have done since then has suggested scum. So yes, I am assuming you are scum.

I think it looks more like IIoA.

I wouldn't quite call it 'instead of analysis', so much as it is 'just information'. But yes. There was no intended "defense" in there. Just simple statements of basic facts.

[Ranger]

First being that why would you investigate someone to try and get a guilty?

Uh, because innocents cannot be 100% trusted, but a guilty in this setup is absolutely infallible?

How the fuck did my RVS suggest scum (I really do expect an answer here)?!?!

Well, tough. I don't see the need to answer at this time.

I do, however, see this as more productive for now:
VOTE: texcat.

[Ranger]

How exactly is one to determine who is GF or SK without a check and flips?

The normal way.
Because what differentiates an innocent on a GF/IISK from an innocent on town?
Play, of course.

So if play determines the difference between a GF/IISK and town...why do you need an investigation innocent in the first place?
You don't.

This is simple theory. Aim for a guilty.

What do you think of Titus investigation you N1?

It's the only choice she would make. Now, she could fakeclaim it as scum, nothing stopping her from doing that, but one it's unlikely by the odds (as previously discussed) and two I'm townreading the slot by play anyway.

[Ranger]

you are prolly hinging a lot on your read on me

Actually, no, not this game.

My scumreads and townreads are completely separate of one another.

[Ranger]

I don't at all like that you are cherry picking what you respond to while we converse. It looks extremely avoidant.

Because it is?

[Ranger]

Vote Smithereens with me?

Absolutely not; Smithereens is confirmed town.

[Ranger]

My body sucks.

Mod: V/LA yesterday, today, and tomorrow to recover.

I hate feeling this sick every couple of weeks or so, but I can't magically wave a wand and make the sickness go away.

[Ranger]

I'm sorry.
I'm too tired to focus properly, and I DO need to get sleep.
So this game will have to wait until tomorrow.

[Ranger]

I'm taking a break from mafia.
Swear to god, if ONE little time of things going wrong causes me to be unable to keep up with my games

this badly

, this consistently, I'm clearly in no shape to play.
I need to sleep. I'm confirmed town this game, so you can't exactly lynch me for not contributing, meaning I do need to contribute. Just...not tonight.

[Ranger]

Tentative VOTE: Postie but I think she would have killed me overnight.

You know that townread I had on Smithereens, Postie's slot?

Totally gone.

Would sheep you here.

[Ranger]

I need to think about what my lynchpool looks like.

Well I feel vindicated about Umlaut, so I'll need to reread there to find two scumbuddies.
I do think LicketyQuickety is still likely to be one though.

But now we know Titus was being truthful, and doubt of Ranger has been put on hold until we can figure out if there's a GF.

Well, we have IC+1xcop+vig(of some kind) at least, and we have a serial killer, so the only possible setups are 3 T (no godfather) or 1 T. If it's 3T, then we only have one extra letter (be it a full vig rather than 1x vig, or one of {Doctor, Roleblocker}), whereas if it's 1T, we've got a fair amount of power not out in the open.

At this stage, I would not recommend a massclaim though.

I was the only one that wanted to do that AND YOU KNOW WHAT I GOT IN RETURN??

Yeah, you got to live to D3 as someone who was mod-confirmed town on D1.

[Ranger]

VOTE: Postie.

[Ranger]

One, Smithereens is obviously an Umlaut buddy.
Two, LicketyQuickety looks quite bad as well.
Three, while a plain farmer doesn't look the best, they look less likely and therefore should be a distand third in lynch priority, so
Four, lynch Postie first.

Proof can be found throughout his iso, but you can see it succinctly in his reads here:

Town: Dunnstral, texcat
Town?: Smithereens, a plain farmer, Titus
Null: RadiantCowbells, Ranger, LicketyQuickety, Bins
Scum: iraonavp, davesaz

We know his top-town were not-scumbuddies. There's gonna be one scum in the "town?" category, and it aint Titus.
We can be fairly sure davesaz isn't scum, and that there would be a scum in the nulls.

I really don't think it's Bins or Radiant.

[Ranger]

If I'm right that Bins is scum all her actions make sense and I can put myself in her shoes and understand every decision that she's made this game.

RC, if burden of proficiency were a thing right now, you realize I'd be scumreading you for stuff like this, right?

[Ranger]

I'll consent to it if Ranger does, and if so, she should have the final say on the order.

Postie->LicketyQuickety->a plain farmer->RadiantCowbells->davesaz->Bins is what I'd do.

[Ranger]

i wanna hear from ranger so bad can we just wait for that i'll wait

I'm fighting off flaking for health reasons, while also getting detached from all my games, and further waiting for a massclaim, so...waiting on me, not exactly the best idea.

I think Postie is the best lynch.
I don't have much beyond that.

[Ranger]

Wait just in case Ranger claims roleblocker.

Nope, VT.

So Postie who I've been wanting to lynch since the beginning is pretty much scum either way.

Refer to my vote!

[Ranger]

There's a 96% chance we're in a single D setup, 4% chance we're in a DDD setup.

I believe there's a distinct need to check this math. Plotinus did it last C9++ game. I believe it went something like this?

to give you an example of why the math is bad, let's say you generate a random number between 1 and 10000:

Code: Select all

>>> import random
>>> random.randint(1,10000)
7372

What are the chances that it picked just that number, 7372, and not some other number? 1 in 10000! That's pretty incredible isn't it? Well not really: no matter what number it picked, the chance would be 1 in 10000.

Now let's say that we know there's a number between 1 and 10000 and we know some of the digits already: 73_2. What are the chances that the missing digit is a 7? It's one in ten. Not one in ten thousand because we already know about some of the digits. The first digit is a 7 and that's a 1 in 1 chance because it's something we already know.

They're acting like the first digit being a 7 makes it less likely that the third digit would be a 7. But that's not true. 1 in ten chance the 3rd digit is a seven.

In this case, we know that we either have all claims as true, or the lie involved here brings the game down by two letters.
Since the 1x vig is 100% true, we know that we can't have two scum lying.

So, either {Postie, LicketyQuickety} is the scumteam (scum in the VTs)...
...Or we have a doctor fakeclaiming.

CVMDDDT or CVMDTTT. 50/50 each. (By the way, the latter has me as conftown. The former, still has godfather possibility.)

I'm pretty sure that, regardless, the correct play here is to lynch in the VTs.
If there's a doctor fakeclaiming, ONE of them is scum, but the other is town. Meaning, two of the four VTs are scum.
If there isn't a doctor fakeclaiming, three of the four VTs are scum.

In EITHER CASE, you've got a minimum of 50% chance of lynching scum...by lynching a VT. From my point of view, it's even better, because as a VT, I know that all three other VT claims are...
...Huh.
Wait a sec.

I just realized the implication of this post.

Derp.

So.
Either the scumteam is {RadiantCowbells, Postie, LicketyQuickety}...
...Or we have a doctor fakeclaiming, and I am confirmed town, with two scum in {RadiantCowbells, Postie, LicketyQuickety}.

I think the play here is to lynch Postie, lynch LicketyQuickety, and from there, evaluate on RadiantCowbells. (Or, objectively, also me.)

[Ranger]

Okay.
To simplify the mess that is the above post.
If there is a doctor fakeclaiming, there is no godfather. As a result, I am confirmed town by Titus's investigation. We have one scum in {Bins, davesaz}: 50% chance of hitting scum.
We have two scum in {LicketyQuickety, Postie, RadiantCowbells}: 66% chance of hitting scum. In short...lynch a VT claim. If they flip VT, we have TWO guaranteed scum.
If there is no doctor fakeclaiming, there is a godfather. As a result, I am not confirmed town. We have three scum in {Ranger, RadiantCowbells, Postie, LicketyQuickety}: 75% chance of hitting scum, just objectively. Since I know I'm town, subjectively that pushes it up to 100%.

...In short?

Lynch.
A.
VT.
Claim.

[Ranger]

So, this is why I say...

VOTE: Postie.
Alternative, LicketyQuickety.
Last resort, RadiantCowbells.

[Ranger]

Hi ranger thoughts

Aside from me being an idiot and forgetting we had a dead scum already...

...Literally nothing I said has changed from this back and forth.

Lynch Postie.

[Ranger]

Vote's not changing.

Just saying:

-If Postie flips Godfather, I am confirmed town and both doctors are confirmed town. We lose one, but we'll go into D4 with 6 alive and a pool of 2 to lynch from: {LicketyQuickety, RadiantCowbells}. We win.
-If Postie flips Goon, we have confirmed a doctor is lying. We go into D4 with 6 alive and a pool of 2 to lynch from: {davesaz, Bins}. We win.
-If Postie flips Roleblocker, davesaz protects Zachstral OR a plain farmer (flip a coin), and Bins protects davesaz. This ring of protection can't be broken. We force the scum to nightkill in our lynch pool: {Ranger, LicketyQuickety, RadiantCowbells}. We lynch in that pool tomorrow.
If the scum succeeded in killing one of {Zachstral, a plain farmer}, davesaz protects the survivor and Bins protects davesaz as before.
If the scum failed, we get an extra lynch.
If the scum killed in our lynch pool, they did our work for us.

Win-win no matter what.

Ergo, lynch Postie.

[Ranger]

If it's a roleblocker flip both doctors are on me. You seem to be missing that neither doc is conftown and I want to be alive to sort the game in that instance.

Yeah, no. You're IN the unconfirmed. Scum nightkilling you is doing the work of the town for us.

[Ranger]

Hey good job on that lynch yesterday guys... I wish there was someone telling you not to do that for the entire fucking game

In this case, not my fault.

I

was telling you to lynch Postie.

Mylo, so not voting recklessly.

[Ranger]

Postie's at L-1, so at the very least, this is me confirming I'm not scum-with-Postie-town.

[Ranger]

Postie/Ranger is what I wanna say

Quick player distinction.
RadiantCowbells is RadiantCowbells.
Ranger is Ranger.
You seem to have made the unfortunate, but understandable, mistake of confusing the two.
But see, Ranger is not RadiantCowbells.
RadiantCowbells is not Ranger.

So, you see.

RadiantCowbells

has a meta for bussing.
RadiantCowbells will push their scumbuddies, plural (because I pushed Umlaut as scum), into the ground.

Ranger doesn't.
Also, whole half-confirmed town thing, and all that.

The one thing that is giving me pause about saying that Bins is 100% the scum is that Ranger isn't voting Postie or moving for it or really doing anything. Hasn't been for days.

Not voting Postie is obvious: this is mylo. If the scumteam is you-Bins (and at this point, the scumteam's {you, Bins}, {Bins, Postie}, or {you, Postie}), then scum win. Not doing anything?

Site search me.

Care to explain why you had SUCH a smithereens townread that you'd rather lynch Titus over him yet randomly jumped ship to Postie scum?

Conveniently enough, that game ended so now I can disclose this! Smithereens was in both this game and Kill All Townies at the same time. In BOTH this game AND that game, he made posts that were references to the

other

game. In short, he made at least one post in here which was meant to be for Kill All Townies, and at least one post that was in Kill All Townies which was meant for here. I thought he was town there, so I townread him here.

...And then, they lynched me in that game (as a vig mind you), and I learned spoilers: turns out that townread? Not so much actually town.
So, the INSTANT that happened, the read in this game reversed. I'll show the timestamps if you doubt this. My arrival to the dead thread in that game perfectly coincides with my read reversal here, because I was granted new information in THAT game which affected THIS game.

and regardless of your alignment it's kind of sickening how little you've done.

Newsflash: you're not the only one who has this game as one of their last. (Well, temporarily. You might be planning on it being permanent, I don't know, but me, it's meant as only temporary.) It's for that very reason. Or, to put it in other words: site. search. me.

[Ranger]

Smithereens was in both this game and Kill All Townies at the same time. In BOTH this game AND that game, he made posts that were references to the other game. In short, he made at least one post in here which was meant to be for Kill All Townies, and at least one post that was in Kill All Townies which was meant for here. I thought he was town there, so I townread him here.

^Basically, I instantly concluded from Smithereens's mistaken posting across these two games, that he was the same alignment in both.

I thought that alignment was town, so I defended him here.
Then I learned he was scum in that game.
Instantly, the conclusion formed from that?

Still alignment same in both games.
But something worth voting his replacement, Postie, over.

The main reason I haven't voted Postie yet is because I need to confirm it's not {RC, Bins}.

To be frank, you've already figured this out by now so it's not exactly hiding anything: yes I do in fact suspect a {RC, Postie} scumteam as not just possible, but a huge possibility.
If anything, I think it more likely than {Postie, Bins}.

So I probably will be voting Postie.
Because I'm pretty sure, regardless of whether you're scum or not, Postie is scum, and we can cross the bridge of whether Bins is or not based off of Postie's flip and the results of the night.

But I'm not going to rush in and vote when, by your own words:
I can do things.
Like looking at interactions.

[Ranger]

My Kill All Townies iso. Search "Smithereens".

To be perfectly honest, it's a super-strong sudden gut read that I can't really explain. I can't really put that into words.

^"Super-strong gut read" was an utter lie. It was "Smithereens is acting identically in two ongoing games and accidentally posting content from one into the other, confusing the two, thus, likely holds the same alignment in both". But I couldn't exactly say that, now, could I?

This is not the first time Smithereens has mixed up opens.

^In that game, he referenced iraonavp, who at the time was not in that game. It was referencing THIS game.

And then we get this here.
Saturday, July 16th.
Now, here's my iso this game. Search for Smithereens. You get things like this:

Smithereens is also IC-levels of conftown to me.

I didn't make that comment lightly. Nor this:

You are absolutely wrong on Smithereens. I 100% guarantee you that.

This was because of Kill All Townies. I can quote more of these, but this lasts until...

You know that townread I had on Smithereens, Postie's slot?
Totally gone.
Would sheep you here.

What, pray tell, is the timestamp on this post?
Yeah, Sunday, July 17th. Now, the dead topic for that game is available. My first post in there? Saturday, July 16th. And by the way: this game, on the 16th, was in night. It opened...on the seventeenth.

I was townreading Smithereens because I had reason to believe he was town in both games.
When that was shown wrong in the other game, INSTANTLY, my attitude changed here.

Not because of Postie.
Couldn't give a damn about anything Postie's done. I frankly haven't paid attention to Postie's content whatsoever.

It was Smithereens.

[Ranger]

Why can't you see it?

Maybe if I had actually read all of the game some mystical content you'd have posted would make me think you were town.
But literally nothing I've seen you do is something particularly alignment indicative. I see a bunch of things that are just...stuff. Stuff, that has consistently disrupted the town since you began throwing your weight around, I might add. Like, all the chaos around Titus as just one example, but various other things. Things that don't say scum, but definitely don't say town.

I

have

been townreading you.
Almost the whole game!
Since before your slot was yours, even!

But then about two thirds of my scumreads did not go as expected. (The other third was fine, but I digress.)
And there, in the center of the chaos, you were. The iraonavp mislynch was largely my doing, and I still take responsibility for it...but since that lynch, I've been in the background, rather deliberately not throwing my weight around. So all of that stuff after D1, the stuff making up the majority of your iso, is stuff that you've been largely doing that hasn't helped the town and has in many ways hindered it.

I still think Postie is scum regardless.
I still think that it's more likely you're town than Bins overall for some little things like how you were pushing during certain areas, versus how she was just flailing her arms about.

But to say this is the pinnacle of obvtown from you?
HECK no.
I've seen you as obvtown many times, RC.
Many, many, MANY times, I've seen you as obvtown.

This aint it.

This isn't obvscum, either, which is a point in your favor; I usually can see you as solidly scum if you're actually scum.

Town, maybe. That's something that I'm partially figuring out.
But obvtown, not from what I've seen.

[Ranger]

tbh i havent been paying attention to the setup much i should really do that

At this point.
If RC's scum.
And Bins is town.
I'm thinking of just giving RC the win and voting Bins, here.

I'll take a look at the deadline clock, see how much time we've got before I need to cast a vote.
But at this stage?

It aint gonna be RC.

It's {Bins, Postie}.
Just a matter of whether I think both Bins and RC are scum (unlikely), or that just Bins is scum.

there's a fuckton of supporting evidence for Ranger scum

You know, people keep saying this but in my experience it largely boils down to, "This isn't the Ranger I know", "Ranger was lurking", or "Ranger hasn't done anything", without anything concrete in it, like, "Ranger is scum for doing this thing at that time." THAT would actually be something I'd like to see. Not something I get though! Not these days, anyway.

[Ranger]

You're pushing an angle of Bins is definitely scum but I might be her partner over Postie, correct? why?

Because your Bins interactions could be buddy interactions, but I don't think your Postie interactions are.

So, Bins-Postie or Bins-Radiant, yes.

like how you can come in here and basically just be so certain even tho i can bet you've only read about 20% of the game

I read most of the game. Just not the parts where I was having trouble keeping up and skipping things was better than doing nothing at all. All the same! I make it work.

Of course I'm not certain about things.

Sometimes, I'm secretive of that, but this game? That's actually been pretty out in the open.
I don't know for certain.

What I do know, though, is that I am not lynching davesaz.
Zachstral is conftown.
And that leaves {Bins, Postie, RadiantCowbells}.
And what I know is that I have good reason to scumread Postie.
And what I know is that you have pushed things that have only helped scum the entire game.
Yet what I know is that RC's not much better in that regard.

So I'm looking at those interactions.
And taking a good, long, educated guess.

and you say "i'm thinking of just giving someone the win"

Yep!

You don't know what games I've been through recently.
They have not been pleasant experiences.

At this stage.
VOTE: Postie.
I'll take the risk.

[Ranger]

i had massive respect for ranger coming into this game but now if she's town it's like wow yeah that's some top tier level reading and pulling there.

I've made it very clear.

As of my health issues, which started a little over a month ago (like, late June, early July or so), I'm suffering severe burnout. I need a break from the game in order to recover my strength and refocus.

Yeah

, when I can give games my full attention, I'm that good, but the thing is, I haven't been

able

to give any game my full attention for the last month and a half. These issues are well-documented on a sitewide basis.

I'd like to see

you

play in top-shape when you've had as many RL difficulties as what I'm having right now.
Frankly it's a miracle, and a testament to the title, that my reads are as good as they ARE given the circumstances. I still seem to catch an average of 1-2 scum per game, in spite of these new restrictions on me. If I hadn't been top-tier at full prime, if I hadn't been top-tier when healthy, I wouldn't be managing that, now, would I?

[Ranger]

Okay so first of all if anyone is saying that Vedith isn't obvscum they are in fact terrible at this game.

Yeah.
VOTE: Vedith.

Ranger regardless of alignment will be able to explain why it's a scumclaim far better than I will because I hate explaining things.

See also response to Bins.
It

is

a scumclaim, but I've lost all motivation to explain why. It just is.

My case on why Vedith's replace in is 100% independent on my scum confirmation of their slot.

Also, this. Vedith does not make that chain of posts as town. I'm too exhausted to go into why. But I back RC,100%, on this.

[Ranger]

I STILL WANT A NO LYNCH ITS MYLO ITS WHAT WE DO I DONT SEE HOW THIS IS NOT BENEFICIAL
with two doctors

Okay.
We no lynch.
Doctors save.

...We're still in mylo the next day.

We no lynch.
Scum no kill.

...We're still in mylo the next day.
These two are indistinguishable from one another, thus, useless.

We no lynch.
Scum successfully kill a player who is conftown.
We are down a player who is conftown, and no closer to lynching scum.

Yeah.

We're not no-lynching.

[Ranger]

How the fuck do I know it's MyLo I haven't read the game and no one has given me the facts.

VOTE: Vedith.

[Ranger]

For future reference even if you think your reads are still god tier (they obviously aren't) and you can only post once every four days, please replace out.

I didn't say they were god-tiered.
I said that, given my REAL LIFE (not game life) problems right now, the fact that my reads are still of passable quality is a testament to where they normally would be: I am not at my prime right now because of all the terrible stuff I'm going through. I can't give a game my all as a result. But in spite of that, in spite of not being able to play at my prime, I've still got content that is at least passable. If this passable level is me at my low, it demonstrates where I'd be at my high: much higher than passable.

But I digress. This is largely irrelevant.

Vedith is scum.
The only question is who is scum with him.

And with every post you make defending his slot.
You show it to be you.

[Ranger]

I'll take that loss.

I was never lynching davesaz, and given that, we were losing no matter what.

[Ranger]

(Uh, it was davesaz, right? And not actually the Bins-RC I saw but went against anyway?)

[Ranger]

...

Ranger.

Why

do you let yourself be talked out of these things?
WHY do you see these things, and then go against them?

*facepalm*

[Ranger]

I'll take consolidation in knowing that between Zach and davesaz, technically speaking, scum could've quicklynched anyway, I suppose.
But, then again.
davesaz saw the same thing I did, with the same basic logic and reasoning, so maybe he wouldn't have voted if I didn't.
*sigh*

[Ranger]

Still mad.

I knew RC-Vedith was incredibly unlikely.
But Bins-Vedith, and Bins-RC, were both possible.

And I should've voted Bins, but I didn't think I could actually get her lynched. :/

[Ranger]

WP bins had me pocketed from d1

Not really.
When you're an

innocent child

.
And you're

alive in lylo

.

The thing to do is to ask yourself why.

Remember what I said about your slot waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay back on D1?

Yeah, there...was kind-of a good reason for me saying that.
You didn't do any analysis today at all.
Like wonder, "Why did Bins fight so hard to protect Postie/Vedith?" For the whole game.
Like wonder, "Why would davesaz, as scum, bus?"

Things like that.
Radiant's not blameless, either, for voting davesaz when he knew it would lose the game (that was flat-out playing against your wincon, RC, I don't care how frustrated you were; you KNEW that Bins was scum and davesaz was town and letting the game end in a scum victory just so you can say "I told you so" is not acceptable play), but Zach, you should have looked at yesterday, for instance, what the players did.

Bins was suspiciously absent, silent: she knew the game was continuing.
I was convinced the game was over.
Radiant was gambiting.
davesazs was convinced the game was over.

You didn't look at that.

You just went, "Well, Bins has been town the whole game, so..."

Well, the proper thought to follow "so" isn't "vote her counterwagon", it's "maybe I'm wrong".

I TOLD YOU ALL OF THIS D1.
I WARNED YOU OF IT THEN.
It applied even on later days. And I meant it.
If you're alive in lylo, there is

always

a reason. Sometimes, it's because scum want to lynch you. (I get that a lot.) Most of the time, it's because you've been the town beard, and the scum are tailoring their scumgame for you, for you to vote the way they want you to.

[Ranger]

I mean, to be fair: I was townreading Bins's posting the first half of the game. I've already explained my Smithereens misread, and also why the SECOND I knew better, I reversed my tune and realized the slot was scum. I went back and forth on LicketyQuickety the whole game, in part

also

because of Kill All Townies, and ultimately came to the correct conclusion that his similarities in both games meant he was town in both games. So it was around there, and only around there, that I first caught wind of Bins being scum. So it's not like I had her pegged from the start, can't claim credit there. But what I

did

do is, off of new evidence emerging, reassess my reads, and evolve them given this new material.

And that's how I learned many of the key factors. Including knowing that scum was within a limited pool of {Vedith, Bins, RC}, and that the goon flip confirmed RC as town. (The idea of davesaz being scum never once entered my mind, because I could tell this was his towngame, and his interactions with dead scum were good. Well, it entered my mind when RC said he was scum, but not a moment prior to that.)