Open 645: C9++ - Game Over

[Ümläüt]

VOTE: Ümläüt for requiring me to copy and paste your name to get it right.

You wouldn't have to copy and paste it if you didn't vote me!

VOTE: Bins
Suspiciously long username.

[Ümläüt]

Oh for fuck's sake.

[Ümläüt]

Last time I got crazy-fastwagoned like this on D1, the second, third, and fourth people on the wagon were all scum. This was on a different site with a lower standard of play, though. I'm pretty sure veteran players here wouldn't be quite so blatant.

Kappy isn't a veteran player, though, and I notice that in his first game on MS he got nabbed as scum for pretty much the same maneuver. I'm curious whether he would try the same thing so soon when it backfired so badly before. Need to do some more background reading on everyone else for comparison.

(Actually I'm tempted to vote Kappy just for killing my jokey vote by explaining it.)

[Ümläüt]

Scum, please vote Zach so we know who you are.

VOTE: Zachstralkita

Whaddaya know, it worked!

For reals though Dunnstral, is that a joke or are you not reading the thread?

[Ümläüt]

VOTE: Transcend
That introduction was really gross. Pointing a finger at someone who hasn't even posted yet is weird and the follow-up post smells more like backpedalling than clarification.

Dunnstrall is an easy target and I don't like seeing Smithereens and Davesaz both jump off of me and onto him like that.

[Ümläüt]

Smith, Ranger always post super-early read lists like that and she does surprisingly well at it. See e.g. Blitz 15.

I mean, she kind-of townread one of the wolves who went on to win that game, but she also had scum in her very bottom spot, so it's better than random.

[Ümläüt]

The only reason I'd go with her reads Umlaut is because I'm inclined to think via a hardly justified theory that she's scum.

I have no idea why you're inclined to think she's scum, because basically all she's posted so far is her read list and that's NAI for her. I mean she could be, but there are so many scummier people right now.

Speaking of scummier people (and Ranger), this

I see you all don't like my intro. Sorry bout that. The whole Ranger thing, I have 3 completed games with her (once she was on a hydra). We've been opposite alignment each time and I think she's a good player, so I want her on my team.

is bullshit.

1.

That isn't even what you said

I just reread that post and realized I had misread it the first time. I thought you were saying you "flipped alignments," e.g. before you were scum and this time she was.
2. There's a big difference between saying "Let's hope we're on the same team" and saying "We're on the same team," you basically said the latter and then backpedalled to the former.
3. Three votes isn't even close to "you all" and feeling under the gun after a few votes is the scummiest thing ever.

The conclusion here was supposed to be "Transcend is a giant ball of scum" but after crossing out point 1 I'm sort of on the fence.

[Ümläüt]

Smith, Ranger always post super-early read lists like that and she does surprisingly well at it. See e.g. Blitz 15.

I mean, she kind-of townread one of the wolves who went on to win that game, but she also had scum in her very bottom spot, so it's better than random.

And what happens when Ranger is Scum?

I don't know, I haven't played with scum!Ranger before. Let me go find a scum game of hers and read it.
....
In Open 635, she posted a super-early read list as usual, and her biggest "scumread" was actually scum. So neither of those things is a tell.

This is kind of nice because it means we don't have to know whether she's town before we pay attention to her reads. But I'll have to reread LQ because I really don't see what's suspicious there.

Meanwhile, UNVOTE: Transcend because he's improved a lot, especially now that I reread his intro, and VOTE: Loopdan's replacement because, head in the game or not, dropping in once to random-vote and then again to unvote without making any other comments is scummy.

Pedit:

Eeeewwwww at Kappy's "Why does everyone hate me " post. Major FOS.

[Ümläüt]

I like the unvote, but why not vote someone in the game?

I've played in a few games where a suspected player gets replaced and everyone decides to give the replacement a break, only for him to turn out to be scum. Trying to avoid that by making sure the replacement is under pressure immediately.

What do you think about Lickety?

Forming an opinion now....

Hard to read, but leaning town. Mostly he's just complaining about people doing dumb shit

*cough*Dunn*cough*

, which is pointless because it doesn't stop them from doing dumb shit and it fills the thread with garbage. But when he's actually doing something it seems to come from the right place, i.e. 101 which I agree with; that was a pretty low-quality and implausible accusation by Dave.

[Ümläüt]

Holy this is a lot of activity for less than 48 hours. Except lately most of it is just Dunn and LQ calling each other names and they should probably get a room.

The Dunn wagon is really stupid, and no one on it (except maybe Kappy) is green enough to think that Dunn's trolling is actually alignment-indicative, so let's look at who's there.

Riddleton

has three posts and none of them are longer than a sentence.

Davesaz

' vote on Dunnstral is completely unbelievable and comes right after he put me at L-2 about two hours into the game. Then he throws shade at LQ in 285 when LQ starts questioning him. Then when LQ doesn't drop it he lets loose with this gem:

Why are you taking such an interest in an exchange that doesn't affect you?

I can't believe I missed this my first read-through. Seriously, ISO Davesaz right now, he's just ridiculously scummy.

Kappy

I thought seemed off before but on reread just seems clueless--he jumped twice on obviously-not-serious comments and then responded to people voting on him with sad faces before replacing out. Just because he's clueless doesn't mean he's town I guess, but at any rate I don't think he and Davesaz are a likely scumteam.

VOTE: davesaz

[Ümläüt]

And if you're going to insist Lickety then I'm going to insist you give something more than 'gut feeling.'

Okay. I have an N0 guilty on LicketyQuickety. There ya go. More than gut.

OK I feel stupid for having to state this (and more stupid for you saying it), but there is no N0 in C9++. And I just can't take this seriously because most the time N0 give a VT result and Cop wouldn't out themselves Day 1 and there is not even a guaranteed Cop in the game. The only scenario I can see a reason for a cop to come out day 1 is because they were a 1-shot. But again, I have never seen a game where a 1-shot Cop gets an investigative result N0. I can honestly say this is one of the more bizarre claims I have seen (barring some of the ones I have made tho).

1. LQ, there are these things called 'jokes.' It's hard to explain, but people say things they don't really mean and it makes other people laugh and be happy, and it's not the same as lying. You'll understand better when you're older.

2. You think Ranger is serious and yet your problem with her post is not that a cop wouldn't have found you guilty. I mean I guess your point such as it is is already made when you say the 'claim' couldn't be true, but then you keep saying in detail that, like, the cop is more likely to investigate an inno N0, and all these other details, but never say "and if she did investigate me she'd see I was town." Why not?

stuff about Bins

I noticed it, but like what do you want anyone to say about it? Yeah, it's weird and contradictory and I'd like to hear Bins explain it.

I'm having trouble keeping up with the activity level to be honest; I only get a couple chances a day to look in on this thread. Weekend is pretty busy too, but I'll find time today to post a longer case on Dave because holy crap is his ISO scummy.

Speaking of activity level, HEY RIDDLETON, WHY AREN'T YOU POSTING?

(He'll hear me because I yelled.)

(That was a joke, LQ. I don't actually think message board posts make noise.)

[Ümläüt]

Bins, what is the new thing you're trying to change up your playstyle?

[Ümläüt]

Bins, but if it's new then it's

not your usual game plan

Like, do you not see how this is contradictory? I mean if you just said "Oh yeah, I made a mistake," or "I was talking about two different things," that would at least be an explanation. But instead you're trying to keep saying that acting bizarre is

your usual style

and also

something new you're trying.

It's not the biggest tell in the world or anything but it bothers me, more so because you're trying so hard to make it seem consistent when it's obviously not.

[Ümläüt]

LQ... like, you tell me not to patronize you but you're still talking about Ranger's claim as if she actually made one.

If you honestly think Ranger is fakeclaiming why aren't you voting her? What's scummier than fakeclaiming?

[Ümläüt]

I have no idea why we're scumreading Farmer now. I just read his ISO because I thought I must have missed something but nope, he just seems like this guy. He voted Riddleton which seems not-crazy, he voted Transcend but Transcend actually was acting pretty scummy at the time, and he's generally asking questions and at least trying to scumhunt. I mean he's not like the most prolific poster in the world but he's writing posts and they're not fluff. If anything he's a slight town read.

Our newcomer is

hilariously awkward

and I'm not quite sure what to make of it. I'm thinking scum but I already thought Kappy was a little scummy so this might be confirmation bias, I'd like to give myself more time to get a new read.

[Ümläüt]

Happy Father's Day! Posting on the run so this is just a list of disconnected thoughts.

I still want to make a longer post on Dave but Ira is just painfully obvscum. I have to think about whether he and Dave make sense as a scum team though.

I have strong town feelings about Ranger.

Dunn is so obvtown I can't believe anyone is scumreading him.

I'm on the fence on LQ, I have trouble reading hyperaggressive players in general, I'll probably have to wait for a flip to make up my mind.

[Ümläüt]

Wall of ISO on Davesaz

10 Puts an L-2 on my randwagon halfway into page 1, and I know it sounds OMGUSy to complain about this but seriously what town goal was he hoping to accomplish here?

92 Responds to Dunn's obviously trolly "stop leading mislynches" as if it were somehow a scumtell and votes him for it. This reasoning is forced as hell.

108 Self-defense after LQ calls him out. This post is actually fine by itself.

111, 114 Asks Dunn why he FoSed Transcend.

145, 276 Continued back-and-forth with LQ. This would be a great place for Dave to talk about his scumread on Dunn if he's actually interested in pushing it, but instead he's just talking about why it's town of him to vote for Dunn.

285 Starts throwing suspicion at LQ with this little blurb:

I often see scum do a dance around people just like what LQ did. Cast a little suspicion, wait till someone agrees, then sheep the case the other person makes.
The followup dialogue with LQ makes me doubt he's scum, but still got my eye on him.

This is especially cheeky because he's basically doing exactly what he accuses LQ of doing: pointing vague suspicion at LQ but not being too committal about it, so that he can push it later or not depending on whether it's convenient. (LQ actually called him out on this.)

287 More self-defense and pretty lame self-defense at that, basically saying it's okay to give vague cover-all-the-bases quasi-scumreads like he did. (No, it's not okay.)

292 and 294 are just kind of meh.

297... oh, man.

Why are you taking such an interest in an exchange that doesn't affect you?

Why are you taking such an interest in an exchange that doesn't affect you?

Why are you taking such an interest in an exchange that doesn't affect you?

I kind of want to erase what I've written so far and just post that quote over and over again as my case. Dave straight-up tells LQ to mind his own business. That is not town, that isn't even bad town. That's practically a scumclaim.

Then, in the same post:

edit @farmer: Yeah, once in a while there is an exception to the "Ranger's reads are relative" rule.

Pedit2: And slip ups like that can be a scumtell for Ranger, if indeed it is a slip. She makes a point of doing the read list thing as either alignment. Caution though, I hard scumread her for unnaturally strong town reads in a previous game and she turned up town... gonna want a reason for them being in the same tier, and a good one.

This is more of the shade-throwing he pulled on LQ earlier. It's totally non-committal, not in an "I'm not sure way" but in a "let me cover my ass" way.

This might be a scumtell, unless it's not, but let me just say I'm suspicious without doing anything about it.

Why are we not all voting for Dave right now?

302, 326: reiterating the question from 111. Spoiler alert: He does nothing with the answer he gets, because the answer never actually mattered.

435 and 566 are actually fine. 567 is meh.

[Ümläüt]

Texcat is looking a lot townier than Loopdan in her catch-up posts.

Pedit: But I don't really understand what you're hmmm-ing about there, could you clarify it?

[Ümläüt]

Are you implying that loopdan looked scummy?

Yes, voting once in RVS and then coming back to unvote "because RVS is over" without saying anything else is scummy.

Major scum tell in my book, [Transcend's] promising read lists without ever delivering. He's voted mostly on low posters and whatever wagon was conveninent.

I

kind

of agree but promising stuff without delivering can also mean a person is actually RL-busy. I know every long post I make takes me forever to write because I'm interrupted about 26,484,467 times in the process.

287 More self-defense and pretty lame self-defense at that, basically saying it's okay to give vague cover-all-the-bases quasi-scumreads like he did. (No, it's not okay.)

It's my meta. It's not going to change. I don't do strong scumreads until there are flips, period. I have a wiki page, knock yourself out. Or you can just zip it.

Brilliant, I should zip it and LQ should zip it, we should just talk about other people instead! I don't see how this could possibly be a suspicious response.

I like this especially because it's just self-meta-consistent when you do it but it's a scumtell when LQ does it.

I mostly agree with Umlaut's posts that he posted.

This makes me uncomfortable.

What Smith said -- what do you actually agree with

[Ümläüt]

So what do you actually think of LQ then?

[Ümläüt]

Ew at Transcend posting "I'm busy" like instantly after I said "He might be busy."

-----

To Umlauut: This post was a reply to LQ, but the topic of the post was Dunn. I think you may have missed that aspect of it?

It was nominally about Dunn but you didn't actually write about Dunn. You parked your vote on him 23 pages ago but you haven't actually made any sort of case against him, and when you're asked about your case on him you just talk about your playstyle.

Trimming my reply to the point I think you're trying to make.

Why would Dunn panic so easily?

Let the record show dave never answered this.

Let the record show that I didn't notice it.
Sometimes they do, sometimes they don't. Also note the "and others".

Why didn't you notice it? Sometimes who does what? "and others" I was asking you not others.

4. Why are you taking such an interest in an exchange that doesn't affect you? (I think I know the answer and I'm not scumreading you atm, but still interested in what you actually say)

It appears to me that this post was interpreted as "throwing shade" on LQ (and Ranger which I snipped).
If you look more closely I was trying to get confirmation from LQ, in his own words, that the things that I was seeing and interpreting as town were indeed from town motivation. The way that someone answers a why question can be extremely revealing.

But like

no one thought that was scummy except you

You don't have to defend him from an accusation no one is making

The only reason to even bring that up is so you can say "I don't think it's that scummy" and look like you're trying to sort him.

TBH I'd need to look at the posts between then and now. Back then it was really weak town.

Way to keep your eye on him!

[Ümläüt]

Wait, I quoted the wrong post too

i feel like if you were scum you'd probably make more of a push on dave than you did here. i think your fos here is justified, i think you should've thrown a vote his way or something, but it is what it is.

I often see scum do a dance around people just like what LQ did. Cast a little suspicion, wait till someone agrees, then sheep the case the other person makes.
The followup dialogue with LQ makes me doubt he's scum, but still got my eye on him.

Transcend is making an accusation against LQ, that he didn't push me hard enough. I reply that scum do that,

but I don't think it was scum motivated in this case

.

This is what no one thought was scummy or needed defending except you. Transcend didn't accuse him, he literally said "I don't see scum doing what you're doing."

Btw:

It really helps to read and understand the whole context, and not try to pick out individual pieces. Don't feel bad if you read this the wrong way though, at least 2 got it wrong.

I'm not usually bothered by what people call patronizing in Mafia games. Making fun of people isn't patronizing.

This

is patronizing. It implies Davesaz thinks he's in a position to give me advice on scumreading, or he wants me to think that.

[Ümläüt]

Which alignment needs to hide what they do? Which alignment can afford to be totally open? I'm being open...

Are you town for tunneling on it, or scum for ignoring the clear signs in the followup conversation?

What are you even talking about

Why am I supposed to think you're being open and what does that have to do with anything?

[Ümläüt]

Still scumreading Ira as well. His 'reads' come out of thin air and make no sense, yet correlate highly with lynchability. He scumreads Dunn, the easiest target in the game. His case on Farmer is incredibly fake and I can't imagine he believes it himself but it comes right when others are scumreading Farmer; it's like he picked the target and then tried to come up with reasoning for it. All of his posts just seem like "LOOK I'M CONTRIBUTING" without any actual analysis or sign that he cares if anyone believes him or not. He looks exactly like scum that has no idea how to fake scumhunting.

[Ümläüt]

This comes apart when you realize he scumreads Bins as well. It seems you're being the opportunistic one here.

This is really nitpicky. I said "highly correlated," not "every single scumread he makes is about lynchability."

Besides, he's not even scumreading Bins. He did for like a minute and then dropped it immediately.

[Ümläüt]

Wait, wasn't Bins actually being questioned pretty hard at the time Ira came into the game?

*read*

Yes, yes she was.

Now Ranger is a scumread of Ira's that

actually

doesn't fit the pattern (though it still fits the pattern of not making any sense).

[Ümläüt]

@Umlaut: I get a sense you're tunneling on dave. For instance, 92 looks just fine to me considering the stage of the game we were in, and I feel like you're over-emphasizing minutiae in 658, 659, and 662.

If it were a random vote it would be fine, but Dave claims to actually be reading Dunn as scummy in that post on the flimsiest of pretexts. Read it again and tell me if you really think Dave could have read Dunn's post the way he acted like he did.

I need you to tell me how I'm emphasizing minutiae here because, while maybe I'm picking on him a little, the points I'm

emphasizing

are pretty serious. Ignoring your own reads and only popping your head up when it's time to defend yourself is not a minor issue.

(Thought I had another good-sized post in me tonight but I'm falling asleep writing this. more stuff tomorrow.)

[Ümläüt]

I don't know why we aren't talking about Dave.

Umlaut is scum with Ira?

I think so, yes.

To be blunt...no offense meant, but in {Umlaut, LicketyQuickety, texcat, iraonavp}, the most competent player

by far

is Umlaut.Umlaut sees LQ's play, and recognizes that it may or may not be good enough to survive, so he takes the stance that LQ may or may not be scum: waiting to see which way he needs to go.Umlaut sees iraonavp's hilariously terrible play, and recognizes that it will expose the whole scumteam if left unchecked. He makes an initial effort to try and limit this, but when iraonavp continues to make a bunch of moves that Umlaut sees as bad, he does the only smart move as scum: cut his losses and in no uncertain terms leave iraonavp out to be shredded by wolves

This is one of the weaker theories I've seen. It's basically a just-so story. It's all about why I might do what I did

if

I were scum, and not at all about why I wouldn't do it if I weren't. Maybe I scumread Ira because he's scum. Maybe I'm ambivalent on LQ because he's hard to read. What rules those out as options?

I'm kind of confused that you think I'm good at the game

and

I'm trying something as reckless as sending secret wink-wink messages to a scumbuddy in an open forum.

Besides, he's not even scumreading Bins. He did for like a minute and then dropped it immediately.

I changed my mind on Bins, you're right.

The argument of "lynchability" is silly because I'm not reading LQ or myself as scum-aligned.

I don't even know what to say to this.

In other words, Dunn hasn't already posted enough for you to make an attempt at discerning his alignment?

No, he hasn't.

Or this.

Make sure that if you lynch me to lynch Ranger and never lynch LickityQuickity, no matter what.

mmm, does this read like town newb to anyone else?

It reads as newb for sure, but not specifically town newb. I see it all the time from both sides.

Part of why I wasn't sure what to make of Ira at first is that he

is

posting awkwardly and I thought he might just be an awkward person. But his posts aren't just stilted and oddly phrased, they're also devoid of sensible reads and full of ersatz scumhunting.

The fact that he's calling out "lynch Ranger next" combined with Ranger basically saying "if Ira is scum, so is Ümläüt" makes me more worried about Ranger. It seems like he's trying to reverse-psych us since he's likely to flip today, while Ranger is trying to set me up as a D2 mislynch to get something out of Ira's death.

[Ümläüt]

Tex, I skimmed Transcend's ISO and I'm not sure I see what you see. It just seems like post after post of meh. I don't like that he's sort of gliding along and giving mostly null reads without actually pushing any cases, but is this all you're talking about or is there something more?

[Ümläüt]

Farmer, I guess I take your point about calling out 657 and 660. I'm not going to claim they're some sort of groundbreaking addition to the town dialogue. (Responding to 660 in particular was mostly just needling.)

I totally disagree that I need to identify or speculate on scum!Dave's motivations to have a case. If I can rule out pro-town motivations I don't really care what the specific anti-town motivation is. This isn't international relations, in this game you really are with the town or against it.

I'm not sure you actually saw what I was doing with my call-out of 657. Back when Davesaz posted his sort of quasi-suspicion of LQ he said he was going to keep an eye on him. Between then and 657 he did basically no analysis of any other players, and when I asked him his current opinion on LQ he basically said he wasn't paying attention to him. This is pretty awful town behavior. There is no good reason not to have an up-to-date read on someone you've committed to keep an eye on. I don't need to know what the bad reason is to call this scummy.

[Ümläüt]

Wait, what's your fourth scumread? I'd assume Tex based on the order of your last read list, but why?

[Ümläüt]

That's it. Plus as I talked about before(629), he kept promising read lists, but never delivered. That's a big red flag for me. But he did have time to make post after post of meh.

I just looked at it again and realized how early his read list promises were. I expected to find that his promises came right before he stopped posting so much and started saying he was busy and felt disconnected from the game, which would be a lot more town-consistent. But actually there's a big block of time where he's making promises and then continuing to make fluff posts without actually delivering anything. This is genuinely suspicious and makes me lean scum on Transcend.

I'm not super confident in this read, because really all of his posts are pretty low-effort. I feel like if he was posting actual

stuff

but neglecting his promises, that would be scummier. But instead he's just posting nothing. This could mean he's trying to stay noncommittal but it could also mean he's just not trying very hard.

[Ümläüt]

Please explain how "choosing not to commit to long term memory everything I've read in the game" equates to scummy?
Lazy, I'm guilty of. Scummy, no.

This isn't about committing everything to long-term memory.

You said you didn't have any kind of up-to-date read on someone you were supposed to be keeping an eye on.

I give less weight to 372 for two reasons. One, I've seen LQ take things really literally before and so this wouldn't be abnormal, and two there is a pretty good percentage of people for whom challenging it on the setup comes more automatically than other kinds of challenges. That doesn't mean I put no faith in the tell, I just don't see it as strong as you do.

This is me having paid attention to something that LQ did, and giving an opinion on it.

That's actually fair.

-----

VOTE: iraonavp

I don't know if I really agree with LQ that we're under time pressure to pick a wagon just yet, but if that's the direction we're going I like Ira better than any of the others right now.

[Ümläüt]

Wait, what's your fourth scumread? I'd assume Tex based on the order of your last read list, but why?

texcat replaced Loopdan, who was incredibly scummy. Strike one.
Since then, texcat has continued to do basically nothing, and this runs contrary to the town-texcat I've become familiar with. Strike two.
Furthermore, texcat has bad interactions with LQ and iraonavp. Strike three.

One, there's only so much scummy a person can fit into two posts.

Two, Texcat got me to take a closer look at Transcend, so I'm not really impressed with claims she hasn't done anything.

I really don't understand this read at all.

[Ümläüt]

Bins come in here and vote plzkthx.

[Ümläüt]

Did anyone notice Ira just outright lied about his understanding of the game?

On Transcend:

I agree with you, I was thinking about this before and he was the one guy I was like "how did this guy get here?", now I looked and there are less reasons to read him as town-aligned than I thought, tone was basically the entire read.

I know people (Ranger) are going to say that I only opportunistically said this now that Titus replaced in and was slightly suspicious, but it's just coincidence.

(Not sure I understand how Titus is supposed to be suspicious this quickly, but whatever)

Same page,

when Titus points out she's in Transcend's slot:

Whoops, I didn't even notice!

Ira is scum. Lynch Ira.

[Ümläüt]

Btw:

Town, unless scum with whoever the fuck was at L-2 early

Hi Titus!

[Ümläüt]

@Umlaut, could you explain that lie a little better? It's taken out of context so it's hard for a reader to see what's going on exactly.

I'm not sure what context is supposed to add to it, because it's pretty cut-and-dry as is, but sure.

• 828 Bins starts flipping her read on Transcend/Titus.
  
  
• 833 Titus votes Iraonavp.
  
  
• 837 Ira complains about Titus' vote but also suggests he doesn't understand that Titus 'is' Transcend or that he doesn't actually know what the wagons are:

  Bins wouldn't need to suddenly 180 a townread right as I come in unless a buddy was under extreme pressure. Common sense means a Bins buddy is wagoned. Farmer and iraonvp are the two major wagons other than me (who she is priming to vote). Farmer feels town compared to my last game with him. So that leaves itapnvp and Bins.

  So why aren't you voting Bins?
  
  Do you actually think I'm scum-aligned, disregarding Bins?
  

  Farmer and iraonvp are the two major wagons other than me (who she is priming to vote).

  There is something very wrong with the idea of this, you just replaced in.

• 838 Ira flips his own read on Transcend/Titus and then predicts he will be called opportunistic
  because Titus is suspicious
  . This only makes sense if he knows Titus 'is' Transcend. One, there's no actual suspicion on Titus yet except what she inherited from Transcend; two, why would Titus' being suspicious affect his feelings on Transcend anyway if not because they're in the same slot?
  
  
• 841 Ira says directly to Titus, "There isn't even a wagon on your slot."
  
  
• 842 Titus corrects this. "Yeah, I am transcend. There's a wagon on me."
  
  
• 843 Ira says, "Whoops, I didn't even notice!"

In posting 838, Ira forgot that he didn't realize Titus and Transcend were the same slot.

[Ümläüt]

So I feel ok.

VOTE: davsaz

I wish I could post a case, but alas I cannot. But I understand the pressure for pressure right now.

GODDAMNIT

The Dave wagon just disbanded like yesterday, you're too late.

(I don't really mind because Ira is as good a lynch if not better, just kind of annoyed because I spent two pages yelling "DAVE IS SCUM" and convinced exactly no one to change their vote.)

[Ümläüt]

First of all, I don't get this push by Smith. I can kind of see him getting caught up in his own argument and not wanting to back down but I don't know why anyone else (and by "anyone" I mean "Titus") is taking it seriously.

----

It was a complete misunderstanding on Umlaut's part and I'm sure he'll admit it was when he returns.

Sorry, your response doesn't hold any water.

Aside from the face implausibility that you have no idea what the leading wagons are, aside from the fact that the very first person who pushed for us to go into choose-a-lynch mode (LQ) moved his vote to Transcend, it

still

isn't consistent with what you wrote. Let me actually quote the relevant post a third time.

I agree with you, I was thinking about this before and he was the one guy I was like "how did this guy get here?", now I looked and there are less reasons to read him as town-aligned than I thought, tone was basically the entire read.

I know people (Ranger) are going to say that I only opportunistically said this now that Titus replaced in and was slightly suspicious, but it's just coincidence.

If you meant you didn't know there was a wagon on Transcend, that's still a lie, because

no one has voiced any suspicions of Titus herself

at the point where you say this. The only way you think scumreading Titus could look like an

opportunity

is if you know there's already a wagon there.

(I do admit this is a less blatant lie than saying you didn't know Titus was Transcend.)

I actually considered pointing out the possibility that you meant Titus was suspicious in the sense of

suspecting you

rather than

being a suspect,

which would have invalidated my argument. But now you've committed to the latter reading so it's too late to change it. Oops.

Ira is scum. Lynch Ira.

[Ümläüt]

Are you followinf Lynch All Liars or something? Cause that doesn't really prove ira is scum.

1. I think Lynch All Liars is an
   awesome
   policy and I don't see how it's at all controversial. Like, pick one: lying about your own understanding of the game state is
   1. townish
      
   2. NAI
      
   3. scummy
   Hint: This is not a trick question.
   
   
2. This is just the icing on an incredibly scummy cake. We could pretend it never happened and Ira would still be the scummiest player in the game.

[Ümläüt]

But I'm not lying about my understanding of the game state.

I will say by far the towniest trait Ira has exhibited is that he repeatedly tells everyone who scumreads him just how town-aligned he is, as if it should be self-evident.

[Ümläüt]

That was the worst fucking excuse for a vote I've ever seen.

Analysis:

• Everyone knows Ira is probably getting lynched today.
  
• Dave
  really
  wants to be on the Ira wagon.
  
• The only reason to
  really
  want to be on a nearly-full lynch wagon is that you expect it to flip scum.
  
• Therefore, Dave truly believes Ira is scum.
  
• Either Dave
  reads
  Ira as scum, or Dave
  knows
  Ira is scum.
  
• If Dave read Ira as scum, he would have an actual reason for that read.
  
• If Dave had an actual reason for his read, he would have posted his reason instead of posting... that.
  
• Therefore, Dave knows Ira is scum.
  
• Therefore, Dave is scum bussing his partner Ira.

I'm a little concerned that this confirms everything I already thought I knew, but not very much because there is just no other plausible explanation.

The votes are on Ira so let's just lynch him and get to Dave tomorrow.

[Ümläüt]

Reads as of now:

Town:

Dunnstral, texcat

Town?:

Smithereens, a plain farmer, Titus

Null:

RadiantCowbells, Ranger, LicketyQuickety, Bins

Scum:

iraonavp, davesaz

These are roughly in order from towniest to scummiest but I'm not very confident in the order within categories. RC is null as in meh, while the other three null reads I'm ambivalent on.

We're very close to a lynch, everyone else should post reads too.

[Ümläüt]

Super busy today, been reading here and there but not really paying attention.

One question for now: LQ, can you explain your model of the universe where Dave is scum but Ira isn't? Why would Dave want to leap onto Ira's wagon knowing it's going to flip town?

[Ümläüt]

Posting quick, doing bedtime with the kids right now.

Zach, did you ever actually case Ranger? Because if so I don't remember it.

[Ümläüt]

Well Ranger is relying on " Hey I'm Ranger, my reads and my play are awesome and fuck you " which is a viable strategy because without my assistance I don't think you guys would ever have gotten around to killing her. (Plus, Ira's dead!)

That... that's your case?

[Ümläüt]

Not ready to put Dave at L-1 yet, the day's just started.

He still looks as suspicious as yesterday but I don't really get why scum would put L-1 on a town wagon with reasons as shitty as the ones he gave.

[Ümläüt]

texcat (scumlean tbh)

Anything in particular leading to that lean? I remember a few people suspected Tex the other day but I didn't really get it.

(signing off for the night, sleepy and have work in the morning)

[Ümläüt]

Reading over Ranger's ISO because a bunch of people are voting her but I haven't seen a case of any kind yet, and to me there are a couple of things that seem inconsistent with being scum.

First of all, she's just put so much weight on her four big scumreads and doesn't even seem to think anyone should need convincing on them. Even after yesterday's flip she just says, "Okay, I guess scum is in the remaining three." I suppose scum could fake that attitude but it's just not as likely as town having it genuinely. And meanwhile she says this about LQ:

As scum, LicketyQuickety thrives, absolutely thrives in town assuming this. He will throw bad reads around, make a lot of noise, and people will basically go, "terrible" but also "not scum", allowing him to push an incredibly pro-scum agenda and get away with it.

If she's scum this is basically what she's doing, so it would be a big gamble to bring this to people's attention as a thing that people can do.

Secondly, on D1 she was making reads based on the assumption that Ira was scum:

Umlaut sees LQ's play, and recognizes that it may or may not be good enough to survive, so he takes the stance that LQ may or may not be scum: waiting to see which way he needs to go.
Umlaut sees iraonavp's hilariously terrible play, and recognizes that it will expose the whole scumteam if left unchecked. He makes an initial effort to try and limit this, but when iraonavp continues to make a bunch of moves that Umlaut sees as bad, he does the only smart move as scum: cut his losses and in no uncertain terms leave iraonavp out to be shredded by wolves.

At the time I thought "If Ranger is scum, she's saying this to set me up for a wagon the next day," because there is no reason for her to to set up an argument of form "If A is scum, then B is scum" if she already knows A is town.

(I am a bit confused about why she's

still

scumreading me since this is basically the only reason she's given out loud, but I'm pretty sure she had me as an unexplained scumread before that so it's not inconsistent, just weird.)

I think her calling out LQ's vote on Ira was also based on the assumption that Ira is scum, but she didn't really explain what specifically was scummy about it. Hey Ranger, why specifically was LQ's vote scummy? (I didn't like much it either but I want to see what you say.)

I guess neither of these things is inconsistent with SK, but (1) we don't even know whether there is an SK, and (2) I haven't actually seen anything I'd call scummy from her in the first place.

[Ümläüt]

Read through texcat's ISO and I don't see anything scummy there at all. I don't remember ever seeing a coherent case on her or even anything actually suspicious being pointed out. Someone explain this to me.

[Ümläüt]

@Umlaut: I'm a bit concerned that you never pushed back against 768, even if only to clarify. Is it because I was correct?

I don't really know what I was supposed to be pushing back against, since you didn't say what you found alarming about me.

I mean, I guess I could have pushed just for the sake of getting a stronger read on you, but I was kind of in the middle of something with Dave there.

Say, Farmer, what do you find alarming about me and why do you think it's learned from other sites?

[Ümläüt]

Oh, and

VOTE: Davesaz

I'm not as confident in this post-Ira-flip, but hell if I have any other major scumreads right now.

[Ümläüt]

Oh.. I see how you know

Excuse my stupidity... that could've ended badly.

UNVOTE:

I'll work from that assumption, however in my opinion you should be looking for scum, not town if you know what I mean~

wat.

[Ümläüt]

VOTE: Smithereens

[Ümläüt]

Last time I saw this kind of post (yeah it was a newbie game, shut up) it was from scum. I still don't know exactly what he was trying to do with it except for just general misdirection, but there is nothing pro-town about saying that out loud.

[Ümläüt]

I wasn't expecting you to make a push on me, but rather to remark in some way on how accurate or inaccurate my suspicions were. The assertion about other sites having formed your playstyle was basically just a superficial judgment based on 17 as well as my general gut feelings, and I thought it likely you'd have some reservations. That you didn't have any makes me worry that you didn't want to interfere because it might jeopardize the townread it helped give you.

I don't even know what your suspicions are! What do you find alarming about that post anyway?

I've played probably 4-5 games offsite, years and years ago, and completed 4 games onsite. Make whatever you want of that.

I don't get why I should be trying to convince you not to townread me.

[Ümläüt]

Rereading Smith after that weird moment and I'm not finding as much strong pro-town content as I thought I remembered. I liked his push on Transcend D1, but it seemed to fizzle out for no real reason, and what looked like a good case on Bins at first seems to have gotten more and more forced. I guess he could be town tunneling Bins, but that doesn't explain the Transcend thing.

Smith, what's your current read on Titus?

[Ümläüt]

@farmer: You thought I was going to get bent out of shape because you called me a

noob?

That's adorable.

(I mean, honestly I have one of the latest join dates of anyone in this game, so you might be right, but I have no idea because I

still don't know what bothers you about my posting in the first place

)

[Ümläüt]

Thoughts on Trans:
>I scum read his entry, I didn't like how he appeared to feel the need to look appealing to other players. I didn't scum read his posts after that, they were perfectly fine. Currently I wouldn't call him either way because I haven't seen him around for quite a while. When he starts posting again I might have a closer look at him.

Thoughts on Titus:
>She makes valid points, and imo a valid point is a valid point regardless of alignment so I can agree with it. I lean town for the helpful material, but I'm aware she's intelligent enough to do the same thing as scum.

Over all, lean scum on Trans, lean town on Titus.

Are you seriously claiming you didn't realize Transcend and Titus are the same slot?

I'm feeling a sense of

deja vu

here.

[Ümläüt]

(though come to think of it this line of reasoning didn't actually work out so well last time)

[Ümläüt]

@Smith: I'm trying to understand your position w.r.t. Transcend/Titus. You say you scumread Trans at first but not later on and you now have a townread on Titus, but the thing is I can't see what would have changed your mind about Transcend in the first place; you just kind of dropped your questioning, and then he breezed along for a while before replacing out. So far I can't see anything Titus has done that's towny enough to outweigh your previous stance on Transcend.

[Ümläüt]

Fwiw Smith, I'm really unimpressed with your knowledge slip theory against Dave and this is coming from someone who was accused of tunneling Dave yesterday.

(But I guess I can believe that you believe it? I mean, I've seen worse theories come from town.)

[Ümläüt]

Smith, I didn't say I'm scumreading you for your shitty case against Dave.

I said it's not convincing.

Those are different things.

I haven't been convinced by the three of them plopping down unexplained reads either.

[Ümläüt]

Umlaut since you vanished, I'm going to float another theory.

Yeah, I sleep sometimes.

Let's say that it's suddenly occurred to you that you could actually avoid needing to NK me to get rid of me, hence why you've paved the way for a future scum read on me. I checked your ISO and no you weren't telling the truth about this mysterious town read you claim you had on me. That suddenly appeared just now when you publically announced your desire to question your 'town' read on me.

Look at my read list D1, you were in third place for towniness after Dunn and Texcat.

I didn't actually write out a "WHOA THIS GUY IS SUPER TOWN" case anywhere, sorry.

I don't get what you think I'm doing here. I'm faking a past town read on you just so I can fake reversing it?

By saying that my reads etc are not credible ergo you need to retract a town read that you never previously said you had, you're clearly setting the stage for yourself to be able to scum read my later. Yeah you were probably excited by the prospect that you might not need to waste a NK.

Cool story, bro.

(Seriously, why do you need to posit such an elaborate motivation? The more details you add the more likely you're wrong. It's strictly more likely that someone is faking a case on you

for some reason

than that someone is faking a case on you

because they need to get rid of you but want to save an NK.

)

Why does this theory hold water? If I were wrong, then we would expect your behaviour to publically take issue with every player whose reads were less substantiated than my own, which is a majority of the player pool. However I've noticed you've singled me out with your inconsistent standard, therefore it's completely possible that you're trying to remove my apparent 'immunity' from the lynch.

I can't imagine that you really think this is the case, that if I respond to cases I think are faulty then I have to respond to every unsubstantiated "so-and-so is town/scum" remark that everyone makes. You are basically saying that if I want to participate in the game at all then I have to make posts like this:

Smithers is town

Nuh-uh.

every time someone gives a read. Do you think that would be a productive use of my time?

Also while I'm thinking about it, if you're not liking my ideas, my most recent one was vs Bins and so naturally you must believe that my logic is fallacious. Why don't you go and explain what you found to be wrong in my thought processes hmm?

Sure, why not?

As far as I can see you've made three major pushes on Bins for three things

1. Contradicting herself re. "new thing I'm doing" vs. "how I always play"
   
2. "Slipping" that she'd consider the possibility she's scum, by using the conditional statement that Titus' case would make sense
   if
   farmer/ira were scum.
   
3. Not scumreading you after your original push

The first of these made sense to me. I joined you in it even. In the end her defense looked to me like something a person could actually believe, but it was a point worth bringing up.

The second felt like you were willfully misreading what Bins was saying. Here's the relevant post:

Titus' theory only stands is plain farmer / ira are scum, and to be honest I don't think either of them are.

(Titus' theory was that Bins was 180ing her read on Transcend to avoid having to vote one of the other major wagons, which only makes sense if Bins/Famer/Ira is the scumteam.) The funny thing is that Ira really wasn't scum, so this entire line of reasoning has fallen apart, but you're still talking as if you were onto something here.

The third is just ridiculous, do you actually think it's a good townish attitude to think anyone who accuses you is scum?

At this point I don't know whether you're scum or just shit at reading. Honestly my main difficulty in seeing you as scum is that if you were just pretending to scumread Bins you wouldn't care so much whether anyone believed you or not. But your case is just really lame and I don't understand how you can advance it seriously.

[Ümläüt]

Farmer, since you decided to call me out on not asking what you found scummy about me D1, are you going to actually tell me now that I have?

[Ümläüt]

For instance, 1242 is reading me as being town for...being inconsistent? That's what I got from it, and it makes absolutely no sense whatsoever; that same series of postings could be used to make a scum case on me.

First of all I don't see where I said you were inconsistent. The closest I came was with this:

(I am a bit confused about why she's still scumreading me since this is basically the only reason she's given out loud, but I'm pretty sure she had me as an unexplained scumread before that so it's not inconsistent, just weird.)

Saying "That's not actually inconsistent" is not a very common method of calling someone inconsistent.

Secondly, did I say anything about you in that post that isn't accurate? Because if you know you're town, and you are actually behaving the way I say you are, then that behavior is

ipso facto

townish from your perspective, so it's kind of dumb to suspect me for calling it townish when it actually is.

[Ümläüt]

This thread is slowing down a lot. I'd love to do something to stir it up but honestly I'm too lazy^H^H^H^Hbusy.

Liking RC as town so far based on her reread posts, mostly because his read list seems to be evolving naturally rather than trying to push to a predetermined conclusion.

Not liking Titus as much but I always hate cryptic shit and rarely have any success using it to determine alignment. This announcement had better be good though.

[Ümläüt]

Did some analysis of the setup and determined that one-shot cop is a pretty bad choice for a fakeclaim, since there's about an even chance there actually is a one-shot cop (who can counterclaim since there's never more than one), so I'll be working on the assumption Titus is telling the truth.

Agreed. [texcat's] read on me was lean town. Then, she is all suspicious After I announce my findings.

If Ranger is GF, either Texcat or RC or both are partners wanting my results to "clear" ranger.

The first part of this seems like good analysis, but the second part confuses me. If Ranger were GF and Texcat/RC were their partner wouldn't they want to say your result was genuine so they could say it means Ranger is innocent?

Also, I read LQ's recent ISO to see what you were talking about with fishing for a cop result from you, and I'm really not sure where you're getting that from. Did you crumb cop and if not why would you think he would guess it?

[Ümläüt]

UNVOTE: Smithereens

After seeing how much effort he's devoted to finding "slips" in everything anyone says, I have less trouble believing he thought he saw a cop crumb from Bins. I thought he might have been scum theatering with Transcend D1 but Titus' reveal negates that possibility.

Texcat LQ

Let's just suggest everyone pick one unless expressly townreading them both.

Way too early to be narrowing it down this far.

VOTE: Davesaz

(I guess if it came down to those two I'd rather lynch texcat than LQ since she's contributing less. I was townreading her pretty strongly yesterday for bringing up Transcend's behavior, but she hasn't really done anything since then.)

[Ümläüt]

You talk about the LQ vs Textcat issue, and you vote Dave as if it doesn't concern you at all. What is the vote on Dave for?

I spent most of yesterday casing Dave. Do you seriously not remember this?

[Ümläüt]

I'm sorry but that seems too fucking dumb to be a scumslip, say what you want

Pretty much this.

I mean, it struck me funny that LQ seemed to be taking that "claim" as an actual claim and yet his response wasn't to put his vote on Ranger and never take it off again, which is what I would do if I saw a verifiably false claim. But frankly I would do that even if I were scum, so I can't call it alignment indicative.

[Ümläüt]

Prod-dodge!

Still here, sorry I haven't had anything useful to add this weekend. I discovered Kerbal Space Program and... yeah.

Probably get back to serious posting tomorrow, I'm already pretty tired tonight.

[Ümläüt]

I haven't found the LQ-scum case very convincing up to now but I think the points on this page are actually pretty good.

I checked back and LQ is moving his vote from Ranger. On the one hand, good move since Ranger is town. On the other hand he doesn't seem to actually be convinced of this, and if he's moving his vote for the sake of getting on a wagon then last I checked there isn't really a wagon on Bins either. So it's kind of a strange choice by any measure.

Mod, VC please?

I'm trying to get my head back in the game after that downtime (and not being especially active right before that) and I think knowing where the wagons stand would help.

[Ümläüt]

Busy at home, busy at work, posting on the run

I have no idea what RC is doing with this line of questioning. If there's something Titus would say if she knew RC was town but wouldn't if she didn't, why would she volunteer that given she doesn't even think let alone know RC is town?

[Ümläüt]

Prodge

Sorry, just not having time to pay close attention and hate posting things that aren't thought out

Still like my Dave vote, don't especially like the texcat wagon

[Ümläüt]

We actually have pretty strong evidence it's 3 scum and not 2.

• There's an IC, that's one M.
  
• If Titus' claim is believed, that's one C.
  
• Only one death last night, so either there's no SK (meaning not TTTTT) or, if there is, there's also a doctor or town roleblocker (one D or B) or a mafia roleblocker (which implies 3 scum),
  or
  both mafia and SK hit the same target (unlikely)
  or
  one of them chose to no-kill (also unlikely).

[Ümläüt]

Good idea, I'm actually rereading Smith and Texcat right now to see which I like better.

[Ümläüt]

Actually, VOTE: Smithereens

I'm still going to reread both of them but right now I just like the makeup of Smith's wagon better.

[Ümläüt]

So Dave might actually happen?

I'm happy to switch back if that's the case, but let me actually do the rereads on Smith and texcat first.

[Ümläüt]

Zach, can you give the town case for texcat? I'm not especially inclined to lynch her either, but I don't really feel strongly about it.

[Ümläüt]

i was considering dav

but i really dont like the idea of a dav lynch

Why not?

I'd vote Dave if I thought I could convince three other people to vote him between now and deadline.

[Ümläüt]

I think I said this already in the Dead PT, but Farmer was right about pretty much everything he said on D3 and I was in constant amazement that no one really listened to him. His numbers were right, his reasoning about our assumptions was right, and his analysis of how implausible the Doctor!Bins universe was was right. And this after he correctly picked me out as scum on D2 for pretty valid reasons. (I'm planning to steal that reaction test, by the way.)

Farmer, I hope we play on the same side sometime because I will definitely be paying attention to your analysis.