OPEN 663: STACK THE DECK (GAME OVER)
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Regfan Jack of All Trades
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Hey everyone! Been a little while seen I've actually played a game here. I'll be catching up with the thread in the next few hours. If there's a particular section you want me to focus on more let me know as soon as possible.
Will say I found the "Inactive Child" section on this very page quite amusing.-
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Regfan Jack of All Trades
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I'll let you know what I think about TB when I'm through the thread, the crickets about to finish so I'll be able to actually start it very soon. If there's any other role claims (Other than it being revealed I'm an IC) that I should know about let me know. Oh and I saw you mentioned that you've played this setup as scum before, you got a link to the game thread / your mafia QT there?
Thanks I guess? I didn't start following the game until around the time of Pies suicide though and at that point it was fairly apparent you were scum already, I didn't have the Scout/SAD pair correct, knew there was scum in there but thought it was probably Scout over SAD until the last few days of the game where it became obvious you and SAD were setting up for the win and that you had it fairly secured. You both played a fairly impressive game.In post 1091, Dunnstral wrote:You had pretty good dead thread analysis in the dance game-
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I'm only at page 14 and only read Antihumans first replace in post (Post 329) but that post alone means that ThinkBig is probably town given the fact that Antihuman flipped traitor; for ThinkBig to be mafia you'd have to believe that Anti's first move when replaing in was hard bussing a a partner as a traitor, it's far more likely he tries to push a mslynch there. My mind could change given there's still ~30 more pages to read but there better be a really strong case on ThinkBig being mafia to disregard that post.-
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Almost fully up to date, currently at page 32. Would be very amusing if the scum team was Kop/SuperHands given Post 388.
Will have my thoughts on all players up in the thread in the next two hours. Would be nice if someone could be online around then to bounce some thoughts with.-
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Realeos early town read on TB in Post 65 as well as the elaborated reasoning in Post 70, Post 72 and Post 78 comes across as very genuine, I disagree with the logic behind it but I think he believes what he's saying and I like that he nullifies his read upon finding out it's something that TB has done before in Post 121. I find his paranoia / pocketing conversation with Dunn in the early game much more likely to come from a town mindset around ~Post 93. I also find his stance on AH in Post 361 to lack scum motivation; scum would be considering AH as a regular townie at the time and thus considering him and Hans as potential mslynch bait, to rule that out by calling the concerns playstyle "awkward" related limits scum. I think his discussion about his excel sheet and his read on Kop in Post 504 and Post 551 come across as town and think the quick unvote in Post 553 fits a town mentality of being unsure of themselves rather than scum being waffly, also think the activity around the deadline in Post 557 - Post 561 lacks scum motivation, he'd given himself an out to lurk for a bit as scum but the want to instantly jump back in this has a gamesolving attitude behind it. I think his tin foil theory behind his town read on Desperado & Alisae in Post 1041 is one that comes from town far more than scum and the massive amounts of detail in hunting via AH's ISO is a fairly big town tell here. Gammas "Not Goon" result on him also increases the odds of him being town from that alone. All up though I'm pretty confident to bet the game on Releao being town regardless of Gammas legitimacy or however many number of power roles we have in this game. So yeah, Reaelo is always town here.
Will probably out my reads on everyone in sections, normally I make a fancy coloured wall but I'm feeling slightly lazy and rather get these individual reads into the thread asap.-
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Regfan Jack of All Trades
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@Gamma- I would appreciate you unvoting in that case, especially given I just replaced in a few hours ago. Plus we're not lynching TB today, I'll go into that later though.
I think Han's question about Gammas scum meta in Post 44 shows a town thought process behind it, I also like his posts directed to MariaR in the early game. I think SH's question in Post 286 is more likely to come from town albeit this is a weak point. I don't necessarily agree with SH's logic in Post 549 but I can follow the thought process behind it. I think SH's attitude around deadline D1 in ~Post 660 comes across as town. The progression behind SHs Post 806 an Post 812 is very questionable especially considering his prior stance on the night kills being WIFOM. I like his analysis of Dave in Post 970 but dislike the TB vote inside Post 989. I think him bringing up Dunns prior scum game inside this setup in Post 1024 and asking him to explain how he thinks his play has changed in Post 1025 is a decent town tell but his follow up of "Just fucking with you" is underwhelming. I have a weak town read on him all up but would like to actually see some more content from him today.
@SH - Can you run me through a few things please; 1) What specifically what made you change your stance on AH/TB "Never being scum together" to currently having TB as your current strongest scum read. Please don't refer to Desperados case when answering this, I want your exact thought process because Post 1056 has some real questionable logic involved in it. 2) Can you explain the change from you stating that Ssbms death was WIFOM inside Post 767 to proceeding to vote Gamma for Ssbm inside Post 812 since that's a fairly weird flip to make. Would also love any other reads you have at the moment with some reasoning attached.-
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Regfan Jack of All Trades
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If Gamma doesn't come back to unvote can someone else do so, I feel rather uneasy with someone being within hammer range while I'm still in the process of getting my reads down.
I'm not going to waste a lot of time going through Gammas ISO because if he's legitimate he likely dies in the night the majority of the time. I also did like his reaction towards Aliseas vote in Post 718 as a breadcrumb for a Not-Goon result on Realeo. I think the manner he claimed in Post 889 makes a lot more sense coming from town trying to push the game forward in the right direction, while he had votes on him there wasn't a serious threat of a lynch at that point however the game was stagnating. Him claiming there as mafia risks him being CC'ed there while putting him in a position where it's hard to explain not ding as scum. He's probably just town and dying, if he's still alive two days from now you can give some serious thought to him being fake but between now and then there shouldn't be anyone wanting to contemplate lynching him.
On the role front if we have a vig they need to shoot once to take us away from evens to odds.-
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Regfan Jack of All Trades
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@Realo (And also others that are attributing lack of content & prod-doding as a scum tell for TB) Thanks. ThinkBig replaced into Newbie 1758 (He stole the slot from me! as town (I suggest you read his ISO, it's short) and got lynched the day before lylo, inside the game he had a lot of similarities as what he's portrayed here, huge lack of content, lots of unfulfilled promises to catch up later, I've seen a few other games of his too I think where he's done a similar thing as town. I think he's just a newer/weaker player.
I find Daves analysis of the wagons in Post 300 a whole lot of nothing, the conclusions from it are minimal and while he admits that in Post 303 I think it's the type of scumhunting that's easy to do as mafia. I did like his timestamp analysis of of AH in Post 374 despite disagreeing with his conclusion. I really dislike the "Maria crumbed traitor" push in Post 540 and find it a very lazy push especially given there's no specifics to this given whatsoever. The vote on TB D2 in Post 861 is similarly very lazy and his mention that he thought AH's case on TB was pretty good was never mentioned D1, this is a fairly large point not to mention D1 if he's town. His scum read on Desperado inside Post 1061 and his explanation that it's attributed solely to MariaRs play rather than Desperados (Who has been in the game considerably longer and provided much more content) in Post 1065 makes little sense. His comment inside his TB read looks like him setting up an excuse post-flip with the "Could be AH misdriection". I think there's a very realistic chance that Daves scum here, his reads particularly his one on MariaR/Desperado re; Traitor yesterday and scum today feel fake and his TB vote is very opportunistic.-
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Regfan Jack of All Trades
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So yeah, currently I'm pretty positive Releao is town, think there's a very decent chance that Gamma and Hans are town too and think Daves probably mafia here.
Going to take a short break and get to the rest of the players.
PEdit: The link I gave you shows that he's a weaker player in general, it's not implausible for weak players to put forward weak logic and cases (And I haven't even agreed that his necessarily is yet, he actually had a multitude of very good points on AH being scum). I'll get around to going though his specific posts and analysing them like I did yours shortly, patience.-
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The fact that AH is traitor and not mafia does change things to some degree but it's not something you entirely rule out. It's not a case of "X pushed on mafia therefore X is clear", it's a case of his argument for AH being scum had a lot of solid and logical points that suggests genuine scumhunting moreso than scum trying to push a mslynch. I'll comment on the rest of TB's posts including his read walls in ~30 minutes, going through his ISO now.In post 1112, Realeo wrote:Can we discard this argument? Remember AH is traitor, so TB won't know if AH is also scum-sided.-
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I didn't mind TB's vote on Maria in Post 151 given his explanation in Post 198 that the purpose was to get content from her. I actually liked his vote on Gamma in Post 267 since I similarly didn't like the manner Gamma voted Desperado. His response towards AH's case in Post 339 was actually rather good especially the point about the IoA attack being able to be attributed to another player as well and his point about AH focusing solely on him and not commenting on anything else that transpired was a good point. I dislike and disagree with a lot of the reasoning behind some of his reads inside Post 502 but don't necessarily think the reads posts is scum-motivated or a scum-tell, just bad play. The inclusion of Desperado in Post 503 is lazy and does need to be explained in more detail though, the reposted reads list in Post 570 is lazy perhaps but it's not exactly identical, there is some notable changes inside that it does show at least a small solving attempt, notably Hans moves from null to his strongest town read nearly, his Ssbm and Dave reads change from green to black and his reasoning for Releo and AH are updated, given that there's only ~70 posts between his two reads posts I think this is a fairly natural amount of read changes to have in that time, people pushing that being a scum tell are being fairly unreasonable and not looking at how it transpired rather than just the posts. I think his D2 play has been poor in terms of activity but already gone into how that's not a scum indicator when it comes to TB. His vote on Alisea in Post 999 isn't bad and his reaction towards the threat of hammer inside Post 1071 and Post 1074 actually come across as town. I very much think the way that AH entered the game was trying to push a weak mslynch to the forefront which I think TB classifies as. The traitor themselves have very little to gain from actually getting their partners lynched and while he changed his mind late into D1 re; "I wasn't actually trying to get him lynched" that's not how his play came across and that felt more like him trying to get TB mslynched in the following day. Really there's a lot that points towards TB being town here, he's even a stronger town read than what I have on Hans at the moment.-
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So, now that I've gone through TB tell me which arguments you think still stand making TB mafia.
The point about his reads is fairly bogus, his reads list progression inside his two reads lists was significantly better than what most people are painting it to be and ignoring the context of the read changes.
The point about AH's push on him making him more likely to be mafia is actually false, it's not impossible for traitors to do that but it happens significantly less likely then them just pushing mslynches; they hurt the scum team if they actually get a killing mafia lynched early on, especially when the mafia partner might actually have a role and his "I wasn't actually trying to get you lynched" comment was almost a week after he started it and he never unvoted ThingBig when stating that. That's him trying to paint ThingBig as mafia knowing there's a good chance that AH might get lynched himself. Also the suggestion that he was "signalling to TB" is a serious joke, that's not how it's done.
The point about his play throughout the last week being him "Openly wolfing" and that his prod-dodging is a scum-tell is confirmed not to be a scum tell for him, if you've looked he's been mslynched in just about half of his town games for people attempting to push that reasoning upon him, if anything he does it less inside his two scum games.
The point about ThingBigs arguments not being good or town motivated is something I strongly disagree with, I've liked his more than several other players.
So yeah, take it from me, ThingBig is town and absolutely not the person we should be lynching today.-
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I don't consider his reads that awkward, I think him believing that there's some buddying going on between scum mates isn't an unreasonable stance to take. His read and reasoning on AH D1 was particularly good and his reassessment of Hans to move him from null->town was certainly good. I think people are blowing his reads list here way out of proportion and ignoring the fact the traitor flip means we absolutely should not be lynching TB today.
I've seen him be mslynched like this far too many times and the reasoning behind it here is particularly weak, like really really weak.-
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Regfan Jack of All Trades
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It would be a very amusing team given that AH may have actually called out to them halfway through Post 388 but it's a very tin-foil type theory and wouldn't lynch anyone based on it, if one of them flip scum at any point in the game the other deserves a little more focus though. And yeah, I noticed the two posts you quoted above and am waiting for explanation from SH regarding his change of stance re; the NK's since it doesn't mesh.In post 1119, Gamma Emerald wrote:You know what
I think I said something along the lines of Kop/SH scumteam at one point
Anyway actually going to sleep now.-
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Regfan Jack of All Trades
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I can guarantee you he wasn't trying to push another traitor. I think it's very unlikely he was trying to push another mafia partner, the only way that traitor can die inside this setup is via lynch effectively given their BP vest and the lack of doctor meaning that mafia are never going to night kill them. The only way that AH makes that play is if he is confident that TB won't get lynched on the back of it and if he thinks he himself will get lynched before TB to make TB look good. I don't think he'd be replacing into the game and instantly planning what would be optimal in his own demise and deciding to take the risk having a potentially rolled killing mafia die just to have that occur. If you notice even after the point where he stated "I wasn't trying to get you lynched" (Which was a week after trying to get him lynched) he continued voting and trying to lynch TB constantly decrediting all of TBs reads and play. It's much more likely here that TB is just town.In post 1123, Alisae wrote:Reg, are you suuuuuuuure that AH wasn't attempting to push another traitor? I don't remember TB having any attention on him at that point.-
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@SH, I had a few questions I wanted you to get to.
Scum read on you has nothing to do with activity. If you're town run through the following things for me;In post 1125, davesaz wrote:For the record, I'm not even trying hard yet. But I do believe everything I've posted.
If you scumread me for that you're an idiot. That might be a scumtell for other people but not for me.
1) What specifically about MariaRs play yesterday made you confident she was a traitor? (I was post llinks/quotes) And what about her play makes you think she was just mafia now that the traitor has flipped? This is something you've never mentioned and is a fairly glaring omission.
2) If you thought AH's case on TB was good yesterday how come you never mentioned it then or mentioned that you had a scum read on him then? That read not existing yesterday having supposedly existed is something hard to fathom.
3) What's your read on Desperado excluding the MariaR posts?-
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Huh, I'm not quite sure I follow that Dave, her #155 was a sarcastic remark to TB's vote on her in #151. And uh, traitors don't crumb the role traitor. That's never a thing lol, they might signal to their partners occasionally but they don't do it in terms of a scum claim, that was a relatively clear joke on MariaR's behalf. Can you explain the lack of mention of your TB scum read D1 / agreement with the case on him then.-
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Eh, I could maybe buy Dave believing that the combination of the three posts makes her traitor and think him wanting to lynch her in that case makes sense as town. I don't understand the carry on to thinking she's just mafia for them after the traitor has flipped; there's no way that scum crumb the role scum (it's even less logical then traitor crumbing traitor) so explanation for that + the rest would be nice.
I strongly disagree Alisea, that'd require a lot of weird considerations to make from him upon just replacing into a game. I think replacing in as a traitor you're more likely to try and get a few mslynches pushed through before trying to make your partners look good, settling for a D1 lynch (Which you're suggesting he was intentionally doing) seems rather unlikely especially when it's at the risk of losing your partner D1. The longer you stay on him the worse I feel about you ftr.
Anyway back in 10 hours.-
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I disagree with almost all of Daves Post 1136 but find it somewhat genuine.
@SuperHans RE; Post 1138, I think Desperado has been more forthcoming with his reads and thoughts than other players in the room, I think he'd do that regardless of his alignment given he's a decent player. I'll let you know what I think of his alignment shortly but no, I don't find the case or argument that he's proposed TB to be scum even remotely convincing, it's built on very flawed and shaky logic and I think the amount of traction it has got is rather appalling. I think the fact that you were willing to vote Gamma "for SSBM" but not other players he thought was mafia suspect. If you genuinely believe that AH was pushing TB "Very hard" you shouldn't be voting TB here, that's a huge indicator that TB is town; as to why TB backed off if he didn't fully, he wanted to get a read on Dunn first -- he maintained his scum read on AH throughout the entire game and was willing to move back to him. If you're suggesting that you think TB realised that AH was the traitor you have to be kidding, pushing someone isn't an indicator of that whatsoever and TB doesn't come across as the type of player that would find a small soft directed at him, really suggesting that is stretching so far it becomes unbelievable.
I'll get around to you Desperado but while I think it's plausible that some other players might be misreading the TB situation here the longer you keep your vote on TB the more kittens die if you're town.
Kops Post 1147 is really bad, like really really bad and Dunn points out why in Post 1148.
Lets put it this way, I'm confirmed town to you, I'm also significantly more experienced; when I tell you that I'd have been hard pushing AH based on his case against TB you should know that I'm telling the truth. When doing so I would have used lots of similar reasoning that TB used -- AH's intro post showed far too much focus on a singular player and the rest of his reads were very throwaway. What he used to attack TB on could have been attributed to several other players so it was a case of him molding an ISO to make a push rather than getting a scum read from an ISO, there was nothing even remotely genuine about it; TB identified most of this, him moving to Dunn at the early part of D1 isn't unreasonable given he wanted to get reads elsewhere as well and pressure Dunn in the process and he never refused to state he supported the AH wagon, he made it very clear he thought AH was scum.In post 1159, Superhans wrote:Firstly I'd like to thank you for the amount of good analysis you're making on ThinkBig, however, I would disagree that ThinkBig made good reasoning D1. He created the AH wagon, then jumped ship to attack Dunnstral and refused to say that he still supported the AH wagon. How would you explain this behaviour? I would ideally want TB to answer these questions but he has been to busy to do so (although he has had time to whip together some basic readlists which is kinda annoying).-
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@SH - I've commented on multiple sections of Desperados case earlier, I'll get to the whole thing in ~30 minutes.
Traitors signal to their partners much less frequently than people expect, most of the time they just push the scum agenda like a normal scum player without any sort of "hinting", TB's flip here tells us a big fat nothing other than TB is town; it doesn't increase or decrease the likelihood of anyone else being town or scum based on AH's alignment, attempting to create a linkage between those two is nonsensical and really poor town play.-
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Nope. Not how the role works, mafia don't necessarily need to know who the traitor is to play the game and the traitor already know who the mafia is, the traitor only needs to make sure their play isn't universally town read to the point where they become a night kill target (And the inclusion of a BP vest here means that's even less of an issue here), traitors literally just push the normal scum agenda and consider themselves more expendable if a counter claim or fake claim situation becomes available. This entire push that a traitor is more likely to replace into a game and hard push a partner in an attempt to getthemselveslynched D1 to make their partner look better is a real stretch and would be very suboptimal traitor play. Traitors (Especially in this setup) have little gain from bussing in that manner, their partner might be a PR that they gave town an extra PR to get, intentionally trying to get them suspected and lynched doesn't make much sense.-
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His vote never left ThingBig after it being placed in his first post in the game in Post 329, inside that post he presents a huge 'case' on TB being mafia and makes sure to divert a lot of attention from Gamma (Who is probably town) to TB, he continues making a case on TB inside Post 537 and again in Post 574. He spent the entire day focusing on and wanting TB lynched -- this is objectively true given that his vote never moved and his next scum read inside the game was you who he only had scum because he scum read TB. The manner he handled the TB situation put the both of them in the spotlight throughout the entire day phase at a time when neither were largely suspected and this was something he intentionally designed. So you're stating that him replaces in as traitor and wants Traitor v Mafia counerwagons D1 is more likely than Traitor v Town is very illogical. Like it feels like I'm talking to someone that doesn't understand the game of mafia.In post 1177, Alisae wrote:I don't feel like they were trying to get them suspected or lynched at all at the time actually.
Look at AH's case on TB.-
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Him jumping on Gamma would have been a huge scum-tell, him attempting to create Town v Town counterwagons (Gamma v ThingBig) on the other hand has a lot of scum motivation. It's also not impossible that he was trying to pull a wagon of his partner and that Gamma was mafia but that's not a world that I think should be considered too heavily today given I liked Gammas soft & claim and mafia have to deal with him soon if he's legitimate.In post 1186, Realeo wrote:So your hyphothesis is that AntiHuman changes from town wagon to another town.
What is the scum motive. He can just sheep the Gamma wagon, ye?-
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@Realo - There is no notice that you "must disagree with the crowd" however replacing in and having your focus and action being throwing a 6th? vote on someone is something that's often read as sheepish & scummy and the lack of original thought often comes from mafia there particularly given the case on Gamma wasn't a strong one. He has less motivation to want to do that regardless of Gammas alignment there as it instantly makes him look bad.
@Dunn - See, that's the way traitors play the majority of the time, this entire tin-foil world suggestion that the traitor was hard pushing a partner and the partner realised it was the traitor pushing them is insane.
@Alisea - You're not making any sense anymore, remember what Accountant was pushing Nydus for in Newbie 1764? What you're pushing here is even more illogical than that and needs to stop. The suggestion that AH intentionally made a bad case with the intention of getting himself lynched upon replacing into a game is illogical, attempting to state that his play was bad so that the illogical play becomes logical is just silly and makes me want to bring out the PL.-
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Regfan Jack of All Trades
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But this isIn post 1198, Alisae wrote:LOL! Scum will use whatever tactics they can use to perseve as townie and attempt to get mislynches, will they not?notwhat you're suggesting is happening. You're suggesting that scum used a tactic not to have people perceive them as townie but rather as scum on D1 and they weren't going for a mslynch, they were going to ensure that the lynch was between two mafia members D1 (Traitor and goon). This thought process makes no sense. If you continue to push this I'm not going to bother reading your ISO and will just vote you.-
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Actually going to go through ISO's now but I'm almost down to just policy lynch the fuck out of Alisea here, the suggestion that we should be solving this purely from AH's ISO is by far one of the stupidest things I've heard, the traitor (especially given how short his time in the game was) isn't going to solve the game for us, as Dunn mentioned and I'll attest to the traitor generally doesn't signal to their partners. This game is solved by reading living players posts and analyising those for the most part, about the only confident thing I can glean from AH's ISO is that TB is town, not scum. And trying to solve something based on X flipping town is not pre-flip associations, it only is if you're asking the question if X is flipping scum.-
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I didn't like the interaction with SH's from MariaR's point of view in Post 122 and disliked her posts around Post 155 but liked her pop in read on SAJ in Post 243 given I liked a post of SAJs at a similar time. I liked Desperados replace in reads in Post 275 particularly the SH one and liked his vote to AH in Post 351 and his reasoning in Post 369. I liked his prodding of people with legitimate of questions around deadline time in Post 514 but it's not something he can't fake as scum. I think Desperados AH-TB consideration pre-traitor flip in Post 614 is reasonable at the time but think him maintaining that world post-traitor flip in Post 776 is less so, the only point inside there I'd agree with is the lack of push on Desperado from TB but that's fairly weak alone given he already had two scum reads at the time so it's not impossible he wanted to focus on them ahead of Desperado, particularly since the traitor isn't the highest priority. I disliked his "Scum framing Kop" suggestion in Post 783, I personally (And know that the majority of the site does too) shoot people that suspect me as scum knowing that town don't put enough weight behind the dead players reads, it's much more preferable than having them alive pushing you. I think his Gamma-AH-TB world in Post 815 is very tin-foil and makes a minimum amount of sense. I liked his town read on Realo inside Post 826. I think the suggestion that AH was begging TH to "let it go" in 'Post 859 is absurd and think the suggestion that TB is the type of player to notice softs from a traitor to be very outlandish, I read the last comment inside the post to make more sense as AH trying to get TB in the lynch pool. I liked Desperados stance on Gammas claim in Post 900. So I'm not particularly confident to make a call on Desperado either way right now, I really liked his D1 play for the most part but his D2 push on ThingBig is something that I think has scum motivation behind it, need to try and work out if he drove himself into a tunnel-mindset there as town or trying to push a mslynch as scum.-
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Town read on Hans has weakened in the last few pages, think the reasoning he's trying to use to maintain his TB scum read has a lot of scum motivation behind it and didn't like that his angle with Dunn and the meta was trying to get Dunn "angry", I fail to see a town thought process behind that which lets him get a better alignment indicative read on Dunn. It's not implausible that it's just his inexperience showing but it's certainly somewhat concerning.
My scum read on Dave has weakened somewhat given that a quick meta search has him getting more frustrated and throwing around insults predominantly as town than scum, that said I no longer find his analysis on why MariaR was a traitor read to him to be a town-tell given that it was mentioned by Alisaea earlier in the game making it possible he was just tagging along with that as scum.
Will go through Alisea, Kop & Dunns ISOs shortly.
Town (S->W):Realeo, ThingBig (Gap), Gamma, Hans
Null:Desperado
Scum (S->W):Dave-
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Can you run me through your vote placement on Kop over Hans in that case? I mean I certainly don't mind it, I just want to hear your thought process behind it since it's not walked through inside your ISO. Also did you ever take a quick look at TB's meta (If so before or after I replaced in)? Would also like your read on Dunn & Alisea so we can discuss the similarities/differences between our reads there when I'm done reading them.In post 1222, Desperado wrote:@ Reg: I think it was the former and I think Hans has been snowing me all day-
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I don't like Kops reasoning for suspecting Ssbm inside Post 212 and find his vote on Gamma inside Post 281 scum motivated and dislike how quickly he drops his SH suspicion from earlier. I liked most of Kops analysis of AHs case on TB inside Post 379 but the lack of conclusion or read actually drawn from it is really concerning. His stance on "I don't do scum reads early game, just want information" inside Post 638 is something I'll need to verify with his meta because otherwise this looks like creating an excuse to not scumhunt or look at other avenues. I found the Gamma vote inside Post 765 as a fairly reasonable one given AH's actions D1. The decrease in activity and lack of reaction towards his scum read (Gammas) claim is a fairly big scum tell as is his pop in agreement on TB being mafia inside Post 1147, Dunn and myself went into it earlier but he's effectively scum reading TB for reading AH as a traitor and backing off and that's not a reasonable thought process based on what's been offered, it looks more a case of setting up an opportunity to move his vote from Gamma to ThinkBig. I'll need to take a quick look at his meta but think there's a very decent chance that he's mafia here and think the Ssbm kill makes slightly more sense with Kop being mafia.-
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@Desperado - I obviously agree with your Kop scum read and vote but can you explain whyyouthink Kops more likely mafia than anyone else at the moment, your prior post sort of lacks that. Outside of Dave having thought you're the traitor what's your read on him? And can you run me through an overall idea of where you're at with SH at the moment since you seem to have him in a funny position.
I'll be taking a look at SH's progression behind his read on Gamma/AH/TB again once I've finished catching up on everyone. There's elements of his play that come across as town but Desperados not wrong in that SH's play today also makes sense as scum that's buddying up to his TB case, the fact that he's constantly referring to Desperados reasoning behind thinking TB is mafia than his own is indeed a problem.In post 1227, Realeo wrote:@Regfan: SuperHans do seems opportunistic at Gamma wagon? You want to play more attention at that.-
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Went over Kops ISO again and there's still not much inside it that reads as town and genuine scumhunting, I find there's a severe lack of stances taken from him throughout the game; there's nearly no town reads mentioned from him and his scum reads on Gamma & more recently TB both come across as opportunistic. I dislike the manner he dropped his SH scum read and never went back to it. Yeah I'm willing to throw down a vote here for now;
Vote: Kop
@Desperado - I'm just trying to work out why you selected Kop overeveryoneelse, is it a case of everyone else leaning somewhat town or is it a case of finding certain aspects of Kops play to make more sense as mafia? I recognise that you've been playing most of this day phase with the impression that it's a world where ThinkgBig is mafia and like that you acknowledge there isn't a chance I'm letting him get lynched while alive but I don't think just putting SH entirely to the side is the best way to handle that given not much will change in the gamestate any time soon. I'd also like you to analyse TB yourself and state a read on him with the information I've provided (Not necessarily just meta wise) rather than just deciding he's not the avenue for today.-
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I found SAJs interaction with Kop around ~Post 232 and Post 236 to come across as slightly townie. I like Aliseas vote on AH and scum read on the MariaR section of Desperados posting in Post 448. I like Alisea being the first person to explicity come out calling and pushing MariaR as a traitor in Post 474 and Post 487 to make more sense as tin-foil town, if scum believed it they probably don't draw attention to it and push it. Find her attitude around Post 690 and Post 693 to make more sense from town around deadline than scum and the start of her push on TB in Post 781 does fit as tin-foil town but sadly does ignore how things played out; AH's comment about not actually intending to push TB was just a a statement made a week after starting it while maintaining his vote on TB, it's him attempting to keep TB in the pool post flip. I think the reaction test re; the "Hammer" by Hans from ~Post 991 to Post 997 is bad play but don't find it to be a scum tell at all. Still irritated reading Aliseas interactions with me around ~Post 1134 onwards, the inability to grasp the situation logically and the sheer amount of stretching used to maintain the scum read on TB in posts like Post 1192 does make some sense as scum but also by town that's being really stubborn and not reassessing based on new information. All up I'm leaning towards that slot being town for a few reasons and am hoping whoever replaces in can really help solidify that read.-
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I only have Dunn to read through and then I'm up to date. I'm currently at a situation where I feel pretty good about Realeo, Alisea and ThingBig being town and to a slightly less extent Gamma (He gets resolved in the night anyway). I still lean SH on the townier side but he's certainly not a town read I'd take to the bank or anything of the sort and would like to see some more original content from him today that doesn't involve ThingBig. There's enough inside Desperados play that I'm not particularly interested in lynching him today and have him fairly null but if anyone has a strong scum read on him I'm willing to hear a case on him. I'm leaning towards wanting to lynch Kop over Dave, with Dave while I dislike a few of his stances and find scum motivation behind his voting record his reaction to my suspicion is making me second guess the read whereas with Kop there's nothing inside his ISO that I'm finding as him genuinely scumhunting or trying to game solve, there's analysis but no conclusions drawn from them in several instances.
@Desperado -Dunn touched on it himself but what I was trying to get at from you was realisation that your clearance or removal from the vote pool today on Dave makes little sense. He never actuallypushedyou in regards to the traitor claim like Alisea did and almost everything he brought up in regards to it was a copy of what Alisea had said but signicantly later. The extent of his actions was a vote in Post 540 and a comment in Post 645 which isn't implausible for scum to do at all, I can see and agree to a degree that what Alisea did may come across as town to you but can't see that from Dave and think you attempting to link them under the same umbrella there is short-sighted.-
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A wagon likely never materialized because the push on you was based on reasoning that resembles what I take out every Monday night and was never going to be logic that a lynch would actually go through based on. You attempting to suggest that ThinkBig not voting you based on that over his actual scum-reads that were based on stronger reasoning makes him more likely mafia is a joke dude, an absolute joke. Consider it this way; what's stronger reasoning? 1) That AH's push on TB was him construing every single action in a negative sense ignoring the context of them or the fact that other players had dome the same action and pushing this with a level of confidence that makes little sense as town, 2) That TB had read Dunns play in regards to AH to make sense as partners and disliked the buddying/defence that he read between them or 3) That MariaR's post looked a bit like a traitor soft. The answer is 1) and 2) are much more reasonable votes then 3) and he never really even believed given his only mention in regards to it is one line inside Post 570. You're attributing something to TB here that never really was there or makes any sense and I need to try and evaluate if you're got to this wrong direction as town or mafia, you elaborating on thought processes in detail will considerably help me with that if you're town.In post 1239, Desperado wrote:Ali, Dave, and AH all pushed me openly as traitor. A wagon never materialized. Why?
^This is another big reason I think ThinkBig is scum. Ali was his biggest townread for the entirety of D1 but he literally never even mentions me w/r/t being a traitor.
Why do you suppose that is?-
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I find that hard to believe Kop given you've played this exact setup before and made the following comment in this post:
But scum don't know who the traitor is though? There is the chance that they could end up night killing him, which is a risk because it doesn't help them that way though.
I know I was a mafia traitor on another site, but ended up getting night killed by my own team mates day one, they didn't know I was the traitor.-
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Also given this post of your in this very thread earlier this game;
In post 212, Kop wrote:In post 210, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:
I want to lynch realeo. He's used doctor and cop emojis already, I think he's trying to setup fakeclaim crumbs and needs ropeIn post 200, Dunnstral wrote:I don't want to lynch RealeoIn post 211, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:also if maf didn't recruit the traitor he could be making obvious PR crumbs to try to get his team to shoot him and recruit him if he's the traitor
These are baseless accusations. They hold no truth or any argument that can hold any water, using them emojis doesn't exactly have a warrant to lynch him, based on that.
As for your second point, that's wrong. If I'm recalling correctly, if they shoot the traitor, he dies. I once had the traitor role and mafia shot me, and I died. I didn't join them.-
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Yes but your line inside Post 212 is responding directly to Ssbm talking about traitor crumbing to the scum team to get the scum team to work out who the traitor is, there's over 100 posts inside this game where people discuss the possibility of the traitor trying to signal the mafia team, how is it possible to read through this thread properly and never once realise that mafia didn't know traitor? That would mean you've read this thread without actually reading peoples posts (For instance Aliseas push on MariaR crumbing traitor, Desperados case that he thinks the "excuses" section was a crumbing occurring. Like I'm trying to work out how this could be a genuine belief you had rather than you attempting to force a dumbtell to be town read.-
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Yes but in the game you linked traitor knew mafia and mafia didn't know traitor, that's generally the norm for the role which was also the case last time you played this setup. I find it really hard to believe that anyone that read this thread would think that mafia could know the traitor given lots of cases and arguments are based entirely around AH's partners not knowing him and him trying to signal them. Like when you read posts like Alisea stating that she thought MariaR was crumbing traitor or read posts like Dave suggesting that Desperados predecessor had claimed traitor or read posts with people tying TB & AH together stating that they think AH was signalling TB through the push what were you thinking?
Like there's nothing I can find based on your history with traitors, your history with this setup or your prior posts in this thread that make your stance on you thinking mafia knowing traitor makes any sense to me.-
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@Kop - RE: Post 1262 I'm not asking if you were looking for traitor crumbs yourself. I'm asking how you didnt notice that majority of peoples conversations were about people looking for them. When reading the thread you didn't think this was weird given your stance on mafia knowing them at the time? Like given your last few posts either you''re town that genuinely didn't know how the mafia team worked or you're scum that's trying to throw out a dumb tell to get town read and excuse your TB scum read post. Explain how the first of the two scenarios is the one that's the case here and that I should be unvoting you and looking elsewhere.
Because it's based on really bad reasoning that others didn't buy? Because a few of the scum team were already voting you? Could be several things. I don't get where you're going with this.In post 1263, Desperado wrote:OK so you've got traitorAH, townAlisae, scumDave, and Dunn all either voting me/pushing me as traitor. Why doesn't that wagon gain more traction again?
I don't see a heavy belief that you were the traitor inside his posts like I do from Alisea, this could be because he was less active and forceful with his pushes but it's also plausible he was just taking an easy vote by copying Aliseas reasoning without actually thinking you're the traitor; this isn't something that's implausible to consider. Just don't understand how this singular action is something you're ruling him out as a lynch for.In post 1264, Desperado wrote:I just don't understand why Dave scum would push and vote me as the traitor, or how a wagon didn't form on me if his buddy wasn't already pushing that theory with him.
/Headdesk. Majority of players don't alter their reads because their town reads have them, especially someone that's as inexperienced as ThingBig. This is pretty bad point given who you're talking about.In post 1265, Desperado wrote:No, I'm suggesting that ThinkBig didn't even CONSIDER histop townread's main read. He never even says "nah I don't think Desp is the traitor Ali." Why not???-
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Goon Cop
Roleblocker
Tracker
I like most of Daves reasoning behind voting Kop in Post 1270, he's not wrong in that Kop keeping his vote on Gamma and not commenting on the claim has scum motivation; he doesn't know which avenue he can push as scum whereas I think towns more likely to try and gamesolve here. If Kop fliips scum Dave certainly looks much better from where I'm sitting. And if Kop does flip scum SH deserves to be looked at.
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Okay mechanical post time;
1) If we have avig you have to shoot tonight- Shooting confirms your existence without needing to claim, shooting also takes us from evens to odds meaning your shot gives us an extra mslynch, not takes one away.
2) If we have aBG you should be on Gamma tonight- If Gamma dies without a BG dying for him then there's confirmation that there's no BG inside this game without needing a PR to claim, if a BG dies in the night it almost confirms that Gamma is town given that it's unlikely mafia are taking a pot shot at the night and hitting the BG that way. Doing so also means we have another report from Gamma for sure.
3) If Kop flips mafia the tracker & roleblocker becomes a full cop in that whoever they target becomes clear if a kill occurs / no visit.If Kop flips scum and we have a roleblocker or tracker it should go on a scum read.-
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@ThingBig - What do you think of Kops dumbtell? Do like that you agree with my strong town reads on Alisea & Realo though I think both deserve to be above Gamma on your list for the timing being. Can you elaborate on your Desperado scum read for me and how that read has progressed throughout the game since that's the read you've explained the least.
Please don't hammer till I'm ready as well. I'd like roughly ~24 hours.In post 1277, ThinkBig wrote:I won't hammer until we get a claim from kop. If kop flips town, I'm thinking either Dave or desperado.-
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No, Kops absolutely not "soft cc'ing". Can you run me through exactly where you are with Alisea (Null alone doesn't mean much to me)? Can you also get to that Desperado read.
I'm referring to Kop stating he believed mafia knew the traitor via their role PM all game, if he's mafia he'd know this isn't true therefore he's either town or scum that faked the dumbtell. Your stance on that is appreciated.
And Gammas slightly lower in the placement order for me because it's not impossible that he's just fake claimed as mafia, that said his investigation target of Realo runs smoothly with how read Realo D1 to how he reacted to someone voting Realo D2. It's enough that I'm willing to call him probably town and see how the claiming situation plays out later in the game.-
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@ThingBig - Why do you think Desperados push on you is him being mafia rather than him just being incorrect as town? Willing to wait for you to get to a computer to go through his/Aliseas ISOs to answer.
If scum really didn't add any modifiers then him claiming goon cop has a roughly ~1/4 chance of being CC'ed, that's not particularly high enough that would stop him fake claiming thinking he may be lynched otherwise. Like I said the way the claim happened and how he softed it does make much more sense as town but he's certainly not lock clear from it.
I'm conflicted on what to make of the dumbtell, I don't see how town that genuinely is reading through the thread can have that belief (That mafia knew traitor via role PM) unless they're not actually reading the thread properly and ignoring lots of conversations. I also don't see how Kop can have held that belief given some of his own posts inside this thread, the fact he's played the seutp before and the fact he's played as traitor where mafia didn't know who he was too. That said I don't know if attempting to fake a dumbtell like that is what mafia would think to do, it has scum motivation yes but is it the play they realise? Not sure.-
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Realeo - TB did state his reads and where he was at before stating intent to hammer, I'd like reasoning behind some of his reads but he's stated he's willing to get to those when he's at a computer next which is reasonable. As for Alisea, his read has been changing on them throughout the game (Which is natural to happen for townies), he had them as a strong town read early on, scum read her for the fake hammer thing and then moved them to null which seems like a fair placement overall given his stance on them; he'll be getting around to going through their ISO shortly and we can judge him based on it then.-
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Dunn - I'd like your thoughts on Kop in general & what you make from his dumbtell here. I'd also like your overall read on TB and the push that occurred on him. I recognise you comment on part of these inside your ISO which I'll be reading in the next 2-3 hours but would like your updated and current stance on both players with reasoning attached.-
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Realo - It's not entirely a meta case with TB whatsoever, A) I think the way that AH pushed TB makes TB significantly more likely to be town than scum, I think the sheer amount of people trying to push the other avenue also suggests that I'm correct here and that scum are treating him a mslynch material. B) I'm actually town reading elements of TB's play ignoring AH's flip and C) I think some of the arguments put forward against TB are instances of people ignoring the type of player he is and stretching in regards to him in a way they're not doing wtih anyone else. You didn't want an "Inactive Child", well you got an active one, one that's more experienced than you and one that's telling you TB is town and not the focus needs to move elsewhere. With that said I do agree that he needs more elaboration on his Alisea/Desperado reads, I've asked for him that myself, you jumping in, voting him and attacking him instead of just waiting for him to get to it isn't helping.
Also I know that English isn't your first language so I'll point out for you that your Post 1303 is wrong, I didn't say "I like", I said "I'd like" as in I'm also wanting it from him. I also agree that the Kop wagon built up quickly, that said people sheeping an IC doesn't necessarily lead towards it being scum-driven; I think most people would do so regardless of alignment, I do agree with SH's vote being the most slimy though.
@Dunn - I agree that Kops "dumbtell" could just be him trying to back out after getting called out on his TB scum read not making sense. Also agree that his vote remaining on Gamma is bad.-
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This is a very big characterization of my read on TB, it's not "Bad player therefore town". It's I town read his play individually inside this game regardless of his skill level, I find the traitors push on him to make a lot more sense as trying to push forward a mslynch rather than a partner and I think some of peoples reasoning for scum reading TB is nullified if you look at his meta (re; promises unfulfilled / prod-dodging).I think that's ample reasoning to look elsewhere.In post 1324, Desperado wrote:If your town read on ThinkBig boils down to "He isn't good at this game" then I feel comfortable not sheeping you on him-
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As a town PR knowing that it's plausible (And in most cases likely) for there to only be two PRs inside the setup and with it confirmed that I'm one of them the fact he has not commented on Gammas claimIn post 1384, Desperado wrote:Go onat allis lacking a town mindset completely. His investigation choice of going for SSBM because he didn't push AH but then instantly voting Gamma today who was the leading pusher on AH shows a contradiction in thought process. TB pointed it out but stating you roleblocked a dead player is by far the safest fake claim scum can make, doing it on anyone else risks them claiming as a tracker ect.
The "Traitor was likely trying to push a mslynch than a partner" has minimal involvement with his skill level of a player, merely what makes the most sense for scum to do and has the most scum motivation.In post 1388, Desperado wrote:Oh nevermind, I was reading it wrong. I did later include that in my characterization of your case. Most of the reasons you think he's town in the context of this game are informed by your meta of him not being a strong player, so I don't think I'm misrepresenting anything.-
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First part because faking a roleblock on someone else would have to mean he'd have had to scum read them and then explain why he didn't continue the push into today, roleblocking the dead means he only has to explain a scum read on a dead player, much easier situation to explain. As for the second part; Open 651 (Scum took 3 powers), Open 539 (Scum took 3 powes), Open 530 (Scum took 2 powers), Open 520 (Scum took 3 powers), Open 501 (Scum took 0 powers). It's generally a case of scum taking as many powers as they can or none, it's very unlikely they only took a singular one especially since the traitor is proven to be unrecruited.In post 1392, Dunnstral wrote:If he's scum and it's likely for there to only be 2 prs why does he claim to roleblock the dead person when both other prs are outted instead of a random town
The first part is better, but it requires him to think that 3 prs are weird (scum would only have to recruit 1 power so it's not so out there?)-
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Like if you look at Kops reads yesterday and entrance into today (re; his vote) the person that makes the most sense to be his target (As Dave pointed out) is Gamma, given that Gammas claimed a report and thus he can't claim to have roleblocked him the next easiest target in terms of faking a roleblock on would be the dead player, there's a lot of scum motivation behind a claim like that.
That said I think a mass-claim isn't a bad move here, there's no particular individual role that's going to win us the game and having the most amount of information outed will help us evaluate the claimed playes as well as work out how much we can trust Gammas reports given that it's possible there's no goons. Scum already have a clear night kill target tonight so outing of claims won't change that too heavily but will help town.-
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@Desperado - If he claims to roleblock a living player in the game he has to explain why he never scum read / pushed / voted them today, with the dead target he does. If there's also more than 2 PR's in the setup and he's mafia him stating he used it on the dead is also safe in that he can't be proven fake from it. Him stating he believed mafia knew traitor and ignoring Gammas big push on AH (Even if AH defended Gamma) is pretty contradictory in terms of his reasoning for roleblocking SSBM.
@Desperado - He was talking about my comment of "Fake claiming to be safe", he's not wrong in that if there's only 2 PR's in the setup then there's no risk of him claiming to have roleblocked a tracker. Not a slip.
I think a claim order of;
Davesaz
Superhans
Desperado
Dunnestral
Alisae (Assuming the slot gets replaced)
Realeo
Would help us.-
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- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 5548
- Joined: June 30, 2009
- Location: Sydney, Australia