Open 713: Jungle Republic [Game Over]

[Espeonage]

vote: wilky

What an unoriginal rvs vote reasoning.

[Espeonage]

Because I am old and don't care for these new tags the kids use.

[Espeonage]

Because I am old and don't care for these new tags the kids use.

jeez
also espeo what's you're preferred pronoun?

He I guess.

[Espeonage]

I was about to give beef some points but then remembered this is multiball so like nup.

[Espeonage]

It seems actually quite scummy to me you'd do that.
VOTE: Thor

Why did you vote when the post previous looks like you take the case as a misrep?

[Espeonage]

If you thought the phases were shorter I would have expected much less backseat play from you.

Are you used to such low posting rates in the shorter days as well? Or are you just happy to sit and watch everyone play around you?

[Espeonage]

Why even partake in RVS if you are going to dismiss it as useless?

And on a more topical note, why do you scumread Thor if you just idle through day 1 unless there is a scumslip?

[Espeonage]

unvote

[Espeonage]

NM parked all last game as scum and got a free ride bc of 'lol NM'.

I would be interested to know if he will respond to pressure but would have to be actual lynch pressure not just a half arsed wagon.

[Espeonage]

NM so you scumread Thor?
Why? Why not?

Upon rereading I have comvinced myself that skitter v Thor is definitely TvS. Or in this game possibly SvW. So I'll be voting there and only there. Whether you like it or not Thor you made it binary.

VOTE: Skitter

Ooooooo, the hypocrisy.

You know there's five scum to find and you just tried to ease yourself to a vote between two people.

Vote: BuJ

That will sit well until people force NM to do something.

[Espeonage]

Going to admit before I get asked I have not read skitt v thor.

[Espeonage]

Yup 5 scum. Definitely some among the lurkers. But how do you pick one lurker over the other? Skitter Thor is 50-50. Lurker vote is more random.

Also by saying I am only voting for 2 people I give others a false sense of security. But yeah I'm pretty sure I am only voting one of those 2.

what makes you so certain there is a scum in there?

And don't go backtracking "i'm creating a false sense of security".

Happy here.

[Espeonage]

Serious question what is worse letting NM coast because he's NM or lynching him early because he's NM?

Letting him coast.

[Espeonage]

Would you engage if someone posted intent at L-1 on you?

[Espeonage]

I think that taking the stance that bussing isn't going to be a thing is a really crazy stance to take. I think that wolves are probably less inclined to bus, but I wouldn't put it past mafia to bus.
However white flag gambit is definitely a thing and active in this setup where wolves can lose with a member still alive, same with mafia who can eat a nk to lose.

:/

[Espeonage]

Quick thoughts...

I'm getting strong Town vibes from Beef, Thor, Espeonage. I see reasons why people might interpret Thor's play as aggressive scum, but I don't really get the sense that this is likely to be the case.

I don't really care for the wagons on wilky and skitter. There's been a few pings here and there from both of them, but nothing I see really stands out as a strong case for either. Feeling TvT on Thor/skitter at the moment.

Null on Fanta and NM. More content needed from both.

Korina is nullscum. Very little content, and her tone feels kind of strange to me.

Golden Paradox has been giving me some weird vibes. 80 is awful. I get the vibe that Paradox is deliberately focusing on unimportant issues rather than actually engaging the thread.

BuJaber looking like scum to me. I think Espeonage and Beef are making a good case here; I don't like the deliberate attempts to force skitter vs Thor, and earlier paradox vs Thor as a TvS. I don't have strong reads on skitter or paradox, but I am suspicious of this framing. I am struggling to see really good reasons why Town would be so intent on narrowing the lynch pool in this manner.

I think Montosh is scum as per 90

We'll meet again at game end when we find out there is one scum (at least) between thor, skitter and paradox.

This may just be the worst bus attempt I have ever seen.

[Espeonage]

And the quick obfuscation. Cool

[Espeonage]

I don't get why people dislike multiball. Because buj raises some good points about beef.

Ill read the Thor skit thing because Thor asked nicely but don't have time now.

[Espeonage]

Also korina, if you spent the time you have been talking about games on other sites you'd be up to date here. Calling it NAI for now though.

[Espeonage]

vla for weekend

- noted

[Espeonage]

Hello kidlets I am back from my Holiday. I will be catching up all my games so hang tight.

[Espeonage]

Ok I should have read this earlier. Skitter post 25 in reference to thor post 13 is wrong. It's not a boolean situation and Thor has basically gone sarcastically "you're wrong" in the form of a common witticism which has blown out. I'll keep reading, but at this point skitter is just wrong and not scummy for it.

[Espeonage]

From my experience, a policy vote on someone, plus saying that they could be scum on top of that, inferring that you meant that there was a 5/12 chance of them being scum so the policy wagon is somewhat justified, seems scummy to me. It seems like an outright scumtell.

Why do you have this experience? Can you show me scum doing it in your games?
I can *assuredly* show you town doing it many times - would that adjust your opinion or no?

Bolded: Or he's really new. Like his reasoning doesn't make much sense to me but it appears to make sense to *him*. By presenting

only

those two options, you kinda transformed this discussion into a you-vs-him type of situation.

If he's really new and he believes his reasoning (your argument for a third category) I would suggest that what you're saying is 'he's really new and doesn't know better'. If you take that to a logical end it's - 'he's honestly wrong' if you compare that to 'you're full of hoo-hah' I submit you will find they are one and the same.

How do you think my setup unfairly cast the situation into a false setup (since I would suggest my setup was 'either Thor is wrong or Paradox is wrong')
Because the only other options are 'we're both right (difficult) or we're both wrong (also difficult).
So...?

VOTE: Beefster

It's a good policy lynch, and, hey, maybe a wolf or scum to boot.

What was the purpose of this post? Was it a joke post, or somewhat serious, or were you actually proposing a policy lynch on Beefster with the justification that there was a 5/12 chance of him being scum on top of that?

The purpose of the post was to;
1. Vote Beefster.
2. Explain why I voted Beefster.

There is a joke in there.
There is a policy lynch statement in there.
There is (with only the mildest of squints) an argument that I'm saying 'hey 5/12 let's roll dem bones' to the point I'm willing to agree I was saying that also.

I stand by all of the above and you absolutely caught me doing each and every one.
What of it?

UNVOTE: Thor665
This is 90% town. I like your response and it feels genuine.

This is a really weak back down. Like when you know you can't psh it through so you back down from a fabricated read.

[Espeonage]

Also, random thought - Wilky is buddying me.

nah, feels like commentary on an important argument.

[Espeonage]

korina's posts on page 2 and 3 are ridiculous and hypocritical. Very clear bandwaoning.

[Espeonage]

Ew, metareading. I don't like metareading tbh, because, I can manipulate my meta quite easily.
I'm just gonna point this out. Ok, going back to lurking.

This comment is very weird to me, I'm not sure how to place it. Why did you feel it was so important to point this out?

(Aside: If you can help it, would you mind not quoting a giant post just to put a one line question at the end? It makes the thread easier to read and it's easier to see what you're actually referring to in the post if you only quote the part that is relevant)

It seems actually quite scummy to me you'd do that.
VOTE: Thor

Do you think this is what Thor was actually doing?

Why couldn't I be scum and also honestly consider you a valid policy lynch?

Can you explain why you think Beefster is worth a policy lynch? I've never played with him before, but I'm getting Town vibes from him at the moment.

He becomes a blind unreadable sheep.
Go ahead and ISO a few of his recent games and get back to me if you love his play.

I'll have a look later if I think it is pertinent. I was more interested in your reasoning for wanting to policy lynch him since you were apparently serious about it.

These are really great questions from the scumhunting for dummies book, issue is that they are the wrong things to be asking and give no indication of your stances.

[Espeonage]

As for "being forced to choose": whenever two people go at it in a mafia game and accuse each other it naturally puts the other players in a situation where they have to decide whether it is SvT or TvS or TvT or SvS. I decided it was T (you) v S (paradox). Players can't really ignore a fight because a fight is an elephant in the room. It needs to be resolved in some way. Either the two sides reach some sort of conclusion and it stops or one of them gets lynched or attention turns away to somebody else and the fight is suspended to deal with the new issue.

What's interesting about this is that Thor was not framing this as "Paradox is wrong and therefore scum". That leap was made by you in 33, with skitter drawing the opposite implication in 46. I don't actually think that the rightness or wrongness of the initial argument is particularly alignment indicative for either player, nor do I think it is a particularly important argument in the grand scheme of things, so it's interesting to me that people who are not Paradox/Thor are the ones trying to raise the stakes here.

nevermind this is a great post.

[Espeonage]

Also, I'm going to do this;

VOTE: skitter

Until he can describe how he isn't calling me scum for scumhunting.

You're voting someone for tunelling on a false premise.

Being wrong is a town trait more than a scum one.

[Espeonage]

As at end of page 6 of reread.

BuJ is still scum on reread. Korina is probs scum. Beef is not an asset but playing exactly to what Thor said he would. Laser is posting greatstuffs.

Thor is more likely to be scum than skitter, but I don't really see it, more likely town v town. Wilky is eh, as is Montosh, maybe towns bc they haven't pinged, but I kinda glaze over Montosh, however was scum last time I didn't really read their post properly, I think that says more about me though.

Who else is in this game...

NM might be mafia, silly votes that avoid conflict feels like steering the preconceptions about his play from the limelight, but woefully small sample size.

No read on Dr Fanta.

[Espeonage]

This game is fucking dense.

[Espeonage]

174 looks like a slip. skitter is right in regards to that in 181.

[Espeonage]

If this hasn't been answered in the in between pages, who else is scum Thor? Like pretend that skitter gets dayvigged and you need a new lynch for the day, who is it?

The reason I would err on the side of you being scum if there is a scum in you v skitter is because of interactions outside of the argument. I would not expect this much coasting from you, especially in the event that you are correct, get shot and leave the game without reads out in the open. That feels like something that town thor doesn't want.

[Espeonage]

Ok Fanta may be scum, but that read is purely relational so backburner, is only scum relationally to BuJ, so if I am somehow wrong on BuJ i'm probs wrong here.

[Espeonage]

Hey Korina, can you maybe take some sort of stance? Not having reads is ver indicative of scum not wanting to rock the boat, which is very likley here, happy to lynch here.

[Espeonage]

Ok Thor and skitter need to shut up, it's getting anti town. skitter had the right idea to put it in a spoiler.

[Espeonage]

Hi!
I was following the game since it started with the intention to sub-in whenever possible, but only to carry on with my "you were killed on N1" series.

Btw, I only unsubscribed the thread yesterday after I got bored with how slow this was going. I believe I was at page 9.

From what I can remember I had Beef as my top TR. I also had Town leans on Thor, N_M & TGP.

I only had two Scum leans, and -funnily enough- my own slot was one of them. The other one is Korina.

Because of my Scum lean on BuJaber I have had Town leans on Espeo. Fanta, wilky & Montosh, but now they're all back to null.

Any questions? None? Good!

Do you have issues with people scumreading your slots in general? Bacause it is a well known fact that town can be wrong. Also WIKITELL OMG.

[Espeonage]

Okay but wilky is scum

You are actually scum this game aren't you?

[Espeonage]

Then maybe don't do exactly what you did last time you were scum. It's one thing to replicate your play regardless of alignment, and another to be a burden 100% of the time.

[Espeonage]

If this hasn't been answered in the in between pages, who else is scum Thor? Like pretend that skitter gets dayvigged and you need a new lynch for the day, who is it?

The reason I would err on the side of you being scum if there is a scum in you v skitter is because of interactions outside of the argument. I would not expect this much coasting from you, especially in the event that you are correct, get shot and leave the game without reads out in the open. That feels like something that town thor doesn't want.

ignore this, was answered.

[Espeonage]

I usually soul read N_M. Granted I was wrong about him in one recent game (and the other HE messed it up), but generally speaking I kinda can tell his scum lurking from his Town lurking, and his wilky push feels like his Town tunnel game.

This is actual bullshit.

[Espeonage]

It's real. At this point, I have played around 14 games. Excluding 4 of them, because one of them I replaced into confirmed scum slot, the other was a pure Jester game, the third one was late game, and VT wasn't a possibility that late in, and the last one because it was canned, I have rolled Citizen in over half of them. Probability would beg to differ at this point, that I would get a non-town role. I still haven't and that pisses me off to no end, because I want to finally play as fucking scum. 11H on ToS forums was the closest I've ever gotten to playing a legit scum game, and even if I played scum well that game, I highly doubt I would've won it. So, let's break down the rest of those games then: that leaves 10 games. 1 of them, I got BG. 1 of them, I got Arso (11H), 1 of them, I got vig, but because of someone else in thread, I got force-replaced. That leaves 7 games, this one included. I have played VT in 70% of all my fm games. You don't think I get sick and fucking tired of it, or at this point probability would be in my favor on a literal coin flip? I may be following the gambler's fallacy here, but I honestly think that probability would go my way at this point.

*Sigh*, I kind of believe this, at least enough not to want to lynch Korina right now. He's such lynchbait it's going to be a very low information flip regardless of his alignment.

I mean, he could be faking it, but without additional evidence, I think you're right about lynchbait.

Well then...

VOTE: Espeonage

He has a certain quality of lurkiness that I find suspicious. Also seems to be preoccupied with this being multiball IIRC.

what is this? I'm VLA and this IS multiball???

[Espeonage]

ebwop: I was.

[Espeonage]

I usually soul read N_M. Granted I was wrong about him in one recent game (and the other HE messed it up), but generally speaking I kinda can tell his scum lurking from his Town lurking, and his wilky push feels like his Town tunnel game.

This is actual bullshit.

It's not

I'm sorry but no, you don't get to prop up someone who is townreading you for playing to your universal meta just because it suits you.

[Espeonage]

Laser Guy is probably scum

This actually needs explanation because that is my strongest townread.

[Espeonage]

That's not what's happening, just because you don't have a read on me doesn't mean Almost 50 can't, we play together often

Please point out how this game is different from you than our last game together.

[Espeonage]

Will lynch pool from most to least want.

A50 > NM > Korina > Thor

[Espeonage]

NM you are full of shit and scum. Die.

[Espeonage]

Ok, what changed from your outside scumreading on your slot to move all your leans to nulls?

[Espeonage]

Laser Guy is probably scum

This actually needs explanation because that is my strongest townread.

Why? All he's done is buddied thor from what I can see.

He didn't get sucked in to the skitter v Thor shitfest and has been calling it out as such.

[Espeonage]

I just don't get why play that you liked, you now don't like because of people's reads on your slot.

[Espeonage]

In what world do you expect no scum to be on a four man wagon on scum in jungle republic?

It's multiball.

Don't fun over your game with low percentage chances. You and I should both know that, does everyone in the game targetting the same person not ring a bell to you.

Don't be lazy.

[Espeonage]

tbh I'd ignore it and not be honest about my reads from before replacing in.

[Espeonage]

Calling the slot you are replacing scummy used to be one of the highest success rate wikitells but they redux'd the wikitells portal so I can't pull it up. It was named after someone though but I can't for the life of me remember who.

I believe the mentality was that people who replace a scum slot feel the need to address the scumminess of the slot rather than just playing and denotes a strong survivalistic mentality and is basically a pressure that town replacements don't feel which is why it almost never happens from town.

[Espeonage]

Thor may be able to help here.

[Espeonage]

I'm saying that there is no reason to reference it to distance yourself unless you have a need to survive.

[Espeonage]

I have long been a proponent of sometimes you need to let yourself be lynched as town and there is no shame in dying if it removes a barrier to the rest of the game. When I am town (especially vanilla) I am inherently expendable, that's what it means to be in the uninformed majority.

That doesn't mean you lay down and die, you statistically know that everyone else has a greater than zero chance of being scum, but you don't need to stay alive for as long as possible to win. It's a fundamental difference between town and scum, and even more important a distinction in multiball where scum are scumhunting as well.

Honestly my main issue is you feeling the need to defend yourself upon replacing in while the wagon on your slot was deteriorating. I'm the only person voting you right now for example. People tend to give replacements a free ticket which is another reason why Amished is so effective (thanks NM).

Especially when given how scummy your previous incarnation was.

[Espeonage]

@Esp: Btw, have you tried to remind yourself of Skitter's town play and compare it to this game, or do you intend to spend the while day arguing with me and only me?

I'm pretty happy with skitter as town. I don't agree with all her stances but I think the slot is town. I pretty much never do meta. NM here is an exception because of how little there is to use.

As for interactions with other people, sure, but considering you feel the need to write mini essays to one line responses I don't think I'm going to get much of a chance until there is direct interaction from someone else.

[Espeonage]

You were also a claimed PR from like page 2 that game.

There was a time I was going to shoot you night 1.

[Espeonage]

There were too many claims for day 1. And I was right, one of them was a fakeclaim, so sue me. Also yours was bad enough to get you wagoned for your breadcrumb.

But that game is not this game and is irrelevant. Getting the votes back on you would be awesome.

[Espeonage]

I don't scumread Dr Fanta, I only dislike them in relational to their random unvote which I really only see as coming from either town or a buddy of BuJ.

The replaceout is NAI.

skitter makes more sense than you do in your argument outside of the first handful of pages. I think your premise for her being scum is flawed and I don't see scum motivation to her actions, in fact I see a lot of protown coming out of her. You can argue fabrication, but it seems genuine to me.

Also A50's meta shit is garbage, he's flat out wrong there. I've played with skitter a few times. Seems as usual. I completely believe her when she says she could do it as scum too, so I would not trust any read on her based on meta.

[Espeonage]

Quick post from me before I go back to homework:
Esp, can you please not make like 50 short posts one after another please? Thanks.

I also feel like Almost's frustration is genuine. I still am town-reading that slot.

Ok, back to homework.

I will make sure to only post a maximum of 49 times in a row.

[Espeonage]

I don't scumread Dr Fanta, I only dislike them in relational to their random unvote which I really only see as coming from either town or a buddy of BuJ.

You find nothing else they've done scummy?

Not as much as other people. Nothing jumped out at me, but with an increasing sample size of posts it's liable to change. They are not on my would lynch list.

The replaceout is NAI.

Replacing out is NAI - but the manner you replace out in can be alignment indicative.

I guess. I don't rate anyone's ability to read it reliably though, and definitely not at a level of certainty that outweighs all the scumminess in the slot.

skitter makes more sense than you do in your argument outside of the first handful of pages. I think your premise for her being scum is flawed and I don't see scum motivation to her actions, in fact I see a lot of protown coming out of her. You can argue fabrication, but it seems genuine to me.

I think I have objectively shown fabrication - why do you disagree that I haven't?
If I haven't shown fabrication I've at least shown that Skitter doesn't connect past actions to current reads - yeah? That's the reality of what has to be happening if she's town, yeah? if not - why not?

The scum motivation is lynching someone who she knows can spot her scum game.

What do you think is flawed n my premise?

I quoted it, but you basically called her out for being wrong, which is not a scum trait. Everything that followed that was entirely semantics of what constitutes scum, and I don't see any mentality behind her posts that isn't town minded.

If I'm perfectly honest, anything that is scummy from the perspective of trying to appear to be scumhunting but not, is likely a playstyle thing. Scum actually need to find scum. Which is why I find A50 and BuJ's play particularly damning.

Lets say skitter fabricated a read. What about that makes it indicative of scum in a multiball game?

Scum actually get to play as town while progressing their win condition, this style of read will not fly in this game because it simply is based on a different style of game and setup.

Like sure skitter could be scum, but nothing i have seem makes that particularly likely, when key traits I am looking for in this game from scum are completely absent.

[Espeonage]

It comes down to mentality.

Scum still don't want to be in the limelight, and they definitely still need to avoid death. Mafia also need to not appear too town dependent on who wolves go after. So people who are preoccupied with appearance would strike me as likely scum, as well as people trying to avoid scrutiny and avoid being in the center of attention, especially if they are a weaker player who are unsure of their ability to argue out of a pinch.

Later on we will have relationals. Day 1 of multiball is always going to be a narrow selection of applicable actions for scum as scum have an easier time of appearing town.

[Espeonage]

The simple answer is that fabrication of reads and being town are not mutually exclusive.

Town can posture for the purposes of building sway and momentum. Town still need to manipulate people.

I'm entering the realm of hard defending someone other than myself. But the takeaway is that I don't see skitter as scum at the moment.

[Espeonage]

There's every chance I am wrong and my reads are off in places. But I am not getting behind your reasoning at the moment.

The game will open up considerably with flips, especially if there is a scum flip today or tonight. I want to see mentality reads, because that is all I can trust day 1 in a known multiball.

[Espeonage]

Thor. I pretended to townread the worst when I was going to shoot him in the oft talked about game previously linked. I was ready to lynch literally anyone provides it meant I wouldn't be identified as a big to scum.

That was fabrication of reads as town. I have quite literally done this. As town. To advance a town win con.

I will not speak for skitters motives but this line of argument will not convince me.

[Espeonage]

Just as a heads up. I will not be around at 4am for deadline. So I'd like things settled before then especially if A50 is not the choice for the day.

Also, show of hands on people down to lynch NM as a policy compromise?

[Espeonage]

Sassy Fanta is sounding scummy.

[Espeonage]

Like really aggressive now that the name is in the mix.

[Espeonage]

Votecount 1.8

(4)

Dr Fanta - voted by: wilky, Beefster, Laser Guy, thor665

(3)

Almost50 - voted by: Espeonage, TheGoldenParadox, skitter30

(2)

wilky - voted by: Dr Fanta, Not_Mafia

(2)

Thor665 - voted by: Montosh, korina

(1)

skitter30 - voted by:Almost50.

With 12 players alive, 7 votes are needed for a majority. Only 6 votes are needed for a no lynch.

Day 1 ends in (expired on 2018-03-01 17:30:00)

I am hella weirded out.

[Espeonage]

Can we not waste time and do what we should have done yesterday?

vote: a50

[Espeonage]

Suffice it to say of I'm to move my vote off Skitter it would probably be to lynch you. If you -by some odd chance- flip Town I promise to forfeit my own read and sheep your on Skitter. I may even reconsider my read on Thor in that case.

Much townreads, much reevaluation of Thor, much thanks.

I'm pretty sure that both Thor and A50 were trying to tie me to a scum!Fanta flip yesterday. (scum in a generic sense, not in a specifically mafia sense)

VOTE: A50

Cuz he already has a vote on him.

Paradox is a weird one there's not really anyone it implicates or points in a direction too.

It tells me that the wolves were trying to stay out of the main argument of the day and want it to continue tbh.

LaserGuy and Beefster's votes were less reasonable. LaserGuy mostly voted to pressure people into consolidating votes onto wagons near deadlines, which rarely ends well for town. Beefster was just blatantly sheeping. I'd put money on scum there.

VOTE: Dr Fanta

Two days left. We need to start consolidating our votes.

Why'd you pick Dr Fanta here to consolidate votes on?

Both tbh

[Espeonage]

lol @ that kill

Paradox is a weird one there's not really anyone it implicates or points in a direction too.

Both of these are lines more likely to come from scum than town.

[Espeonage]

I'm however not sold on wilky not just being petulent and bad. Bc thats p much what Fanta was.

[Espeonage]

We're not going down the wifom hole. It's getting taken at face value.

[Espeonage]

vote: tchill

Hard policy or I replace out.

[Espeonage]

vote: tchill

Hard policy or I replace out.

What's wrong with tchill?

Ignorant and petulant to the point of ruining a game. He's not the worst from the game which is why id actually rather try and push through a policy rather than just replace out. For lickquick I wouldn't even waste the words.

[Espeonage]

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=74154

[Espeonage]

I'll stick around. If only because my reading seems good this game.

[Espeonage]

wilky, beef, and NM is the acceptable lynch pool.

beef takes a step down because I have a lingering weak townread on the slot from a somewhat wifom sheep game. Which really is reinforced by thor's RVS analysis of Beef.

skitter and TChill both had late mentions by Laser as town leans/reads. Which may indicate a clear. Ofc both can't have been cleared and might not have been hit at all but seems like a decent cull.

I also think that NM would hammer a partner there. 1. NM hammers, 2. A50 was dying anyway I would have hammered, and thats not a secret.

So wilky I guess. My issue with that conclusion is I have no idea who is then the other wolf if wilky is a wolf. NM maybe, the tunnel that doesn't get traction is a possibility. Thor could concievably hope for a bus and stay off. Or I'm duped by Tchill, skitter, or Beef, which are all conceivable but .

vote: wilky

Most likely partner after a positive flip right now is NM or Beef one for stupid hard bussing and the other for avoiding the PoE wolf.

PEDIT: You would, wouldn't you.

[Espeonage]

tbf I read NM a scummy for the same reason as Montosh has issues here.

The last time NM tunnelled it was on who NM thought was lynchbait early day 1. And NM ended up being scum. This game is quite literally exactly the same.

But the point missed by Montosh which is iffy is that NM may hit opposing faction so it doesn't discredit the wilky wagon like it might otherwise.

I'm 95% sure NM is going to flip scum, but I have no idea which type.

[Espeonage]

Am I the only one that feels this consensus has a fake, scummy vibe to it?

yup

go read my PoE and tell me this isn't the mathematically best lynch by a long way.

[Espeonage]

Lemme digest, but I thought skitter or I were dying night 1 so idk about the kill spec stuff. Possibly trying to distance from the kill.

Also I think Thor WW kills skitter anyway to try and avoid the lynch. But also not overly likely, Thor is better shot of being Mafia at this point.

I don't see Montosh ww either because I think ww's are on A50 lynch wagon. So I think that Beef is the best bet for ww folowed by TChill. Thor/Montosh/NM is my mafia pool in that order.

[Espeonage]

So it's 3-2-1

Town death 2-2-1, game over if ww doesn't kill mafia, have to lynch ww in mylo to go to lylo.
mafia death 3-1-1, ww kills mafia mylo, ww kills town, same as above.
ww death 3-2, two days of lylo.

We should be trying to lynch not town, with an emphasis on mafia.

Vote: Thor

will join on Montosh if forced but definitely would much rather Thor.

[Espeonage]

Ok. Lynching town is really fucking bad. Leaves an incredibly slim chance of a win.

So step 1. Don't lynch town. Do whatever it takes to avoid a mislynch.

Now aside from maths I can end here because the gap between beef and chill is small in the ww stakes. And you are miles ahead on the mafia flip likelihood.

But my logic is that a mafia flip helps ww sort out last scum, so looking at that practically. You dead, ww shoots someone. By then the mafia is p much confirmed even if town dies bc it takes out from the small pool. And then we have a semi solved game again choosing between the ww candidates but now knowing who mafia is.

Look lynching for ww ends in the same coin flip as far as I read. But with much less chance of a town lynch today.

And honestly this is just for the benefit of the other players that want to see the response because now people might vote you.

[Espeonage]

Also it wouldn't be two days of lylo - if town lynches correctly they'd actually have the ability for *two* lynch attempts at the last mafia.

That's two scum in three lynches.
This is so bog obvious.

I did miss this bit. Mafia have no night kill. :/

So can lynch through the whole pool.

unvote

[Espeonage]

Actually yeah you're right bc if we get the ww wrong presumably they can not be an idiot and hope to sway.

Then it's just I don't be an idiot.

And scum Thor wants this bc can win off partner potentially.

vote:beef

[Espeonage]

Who's scum?

Montosh is the only one I'm super sure of. I could see any of the other four of you as scum, but I'd have to take a closer look.

I also just realized that there are only 6 players left.

I think TChill has properly redeemed the Korina slot, so the remaining scum is in {Thor, Not_Mafia, Espeonage}

or perhaps a better format: (from most likely to be scum to least)
- Montosh
- Thor
- Not_Mafia
- Espeonage
- Tchill

But seriously. Get those votes off me. I'm town.

Is this a slip. You have not given any clear indication of which variety of scum you think people are which kinda screams you are only looking for one kind.

[Espeonage]

Like cognitively I knew mafia can't kill but it's more that it's ingrained that 3/2 is two days of lylo.

[Espeonage]

So maybe (most likely to least likely):
Thor/Esp
Thor/NM
Esp/Tchill
Esp/NM
Tchill/NM
Tchill/Thor

This feels very arbitrary.

[Espeonage]

Actually yeah you're right bc if we get the ww wrong presumably they can not be an idiot and hope to sway.

Then it's just I don't be an idiot.

And scum Thor wants this bc can win off partner potentially.

vote:beef

And, from a slew of posts I was about to rage on - common sense.
Think you'll have any luck talking to TChill and NM? They're both pointedly ignoring me while still advancing bad lynch theory, which makes me convinced at least one, if not both, are scum, because it's really obvious I'm right if you stop and look at things, yeah?

Why do you see Beef as more likely Wolf than Montosh? I asked you earlier methinks on this same point, and it's a really big point for the day.

@Espeo - bolded the question for your ease.
Please stop avoiding it, otherwise I'll just wagon you out of spite.

Bc montosh was not active in lynching a50.

[Espeonage]

Well tbf I didn't post the rest of that day because it ended pretty quick at the end and they weren't active days for me. (I'm most active at work.)

And after the A50 wagon which I kinda spearheaded withoutbeing on it, and chil''s support in that, I kinda figured I'd been brash. I've done some dick moves as scum and I was kinda holding a grudge for a loss I felt was undeserved.

Also you are kinda glossing over the fact that I have beef and chill close in my lynch pool for ww. I don't see chill as maf after the way he pushed A50 without any obligation but I can see ww.

[Espeonage]

Also Thor, sell me on this Montosh turnaround because I don't see it.

The activity under the pressure at the start of the day feels reminisce of BuJ, and as the pressure dissipates, the play quality goes up. Does that not count as scum points instead of the opposite?

[Espeonage]

I was arguing that only beef could be town from that whole group. As in I agreed with the rest of his scum reads but would argue beef being scum.

So you were scumreading wilky, skitter and myself at that point, and soft scumreading beef?

I pretty much just said screw it and voted wilky to help sort NM. NM was right so now I believe NM is town. NM I shouldn't be killed by the wolf.

Yet I am the wolf for essentially the same actions?

?

[Espeonage]

Also, A50 tunneled me pretty hard on D2, so that would imply that I'm not mafia. I recognize that doesn't clear me from wolf, but I don't care.

Now see that's a good point.

UNVOTE:

Why the hell hasn't espionage been talked about too much?

1. I'm assuming people are also somewhat on the same page as me here and calling beef ww over mafia.
2. The not paying attention to simple details is the exact behaviour that led to my lynch as miller, which was a wagon spearheaded by chill.

However, Beef never bussed wilky if ww, which is still a touch above. But I could lynch either because it's a fucking coinflip.

[Espeonage]

I haven't interacted much with Beef either. But I made my PoE clear.

And mostly because Montosh's play change also co-incides with our acceptance that the numbers favour a ww lynch. I have Montosh as second in mafia pool right now.

[Espeonage]

vote: chill

[Espeonage]

Because it is either chill or beef today as per our earlier convo. And I have building scumfuck on chill. Beef's little AtE is kinda hitting me.

[Espeonage]

Phew. I thought Thor might be ww and brought it up a few times in the mafia PT, but I kinda knew that Thor would possibly try and get me on side and basically if I was not going to push him during the day he wasn't going to push me.

And I saw an opening to hard bus on day 1 and took it, then tried to find a natural way off the wagon but ended up not needing to. I didn't mean to skip day 2, but I was kinda trying to see if I wanted to replace or not. I came in to go yeah I'll stay I'm going to do a big catchup but the day was already over.