Mini Normal 2016 | Otters vs. Penguins | Endgame

[Gosrir Elmer Odels]

VOTE: BBT
No.

I have to say, otters vs penguins sounds like a weird flavour, but I'm looking forward to it. Does anyone know which one we're supposed to be?

[Gosrir Elmer Odels]

Meta this. Meta that. Meta Everything. Meta is not a good scum-hunting tool. PEOPLE CAN MANIPULATE THEIR META. Stop it. Stop. It. Now.

I agree with this. But then why this:

Unfortunately, secret alts are all over the place. I'd sooner policy lynch em all!

[Gosrir Elmer Odels]

VOTE: BV

107 is a commentary. Provides no information, communicates nothing, asks nothing, leads to nothing. So why make such a long post?

[Gosrir Elmer Odels]

Meta this. Meta that. Meta Everything. Meta is not a good scum-hunting tool. PEOPLE CAN MANIPULATE THEIR META. Stop it. Stop. It. Now.

I agree with this. But then why this:

Unfortunately, secret alts are all over the place. I'd sooner policy lynch em all!

VOTE: BV

107 is a commentary. Provides no information, communicates nothing, asks nothing, leads to nothing. So why make such a long post?

GEO, can you expand on these two reads and what you think they mean?

The first one was pretty much fluff. I felt pressured to post, panicked, but didn't have anything more interesting to talk about.

The BV vote otoh was completely serious. His post was literally nothing, but it wasn't even

nothing

. (1) It was a long-winded commentary on BBT's posts, mostly theory, so it's useless, (2) & most importantly even though he was scumreading BBT at the time (3) his big post didn't actually make a push on him. He essentially put himself in a situation where he was simultaneously both pushing & not pushing a BBT wagon, which made me uneasy because it masks the dynamic of the wagon.
I expected scum to rectify the dissonance between the post & the push, & either break-off from the wagon & find another (possibly omgus), or make a more pronounced push on BBT. Neither happened, BV's pretty much town as far as I'm concerned.

VOTE: teacher
There's a lot of talk about players being jumpy & opportunistic, so check out [p]213[/p].

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But his read on BV doesn't make sense as BV has now switched wagons (which GEO expected scum!BV to do) but he town reads him for it.

I expected an earlier correction. He spent too much time in that awkward position to be scum.

[Gosrir Elmer Odels]

I expected an earlier correction. He spent too much time in that awkward position to be scum.

That doesn't really answer my statement regarding your BV read. He still changed the read when pressure subsided.

Also, what was awkward about his position?

It's that he was kind of pushing you & kind of not pushing you at the same time, as I've already said. I feel like if you don't get it, I'm not explaining myself well.
Here's a RL example what the exchange reminded me of: if you're familiar with partner dancing, you know that the follow's elbows are supposed to only move up & down, but not a lot back & forth. If her shoulders are flimsy, you essentially

lose contact

, & life gets infinitely more difficult (for turns as such.) It doesn't really work because in this case BV is supposed to be somehow both the lead & the one with the flimsy shoulders, but it still might communicate the idea better. My point is that if you want to look good, you try to avoid this situation when you're in the spotlight. BV didn't.

BBT how many town do you think is in (Byron/invis/lefty)?

how many scum do you think is in (Nosferatu/Teacher/performer/tommy egan)

just numbers are fine.

ACTUALLY anybody is more than welcome to answer this.

2, maybe 3. I feel good about Invisibility. I need to reread the whole Gus vs Lefty exchange because it sort of went over my head.
2? I don't feel like Teacher & Performer would be scumbuddies. Tommy makes me a bit anxious, Nos a lot less so. I didn't really have problems with his post.

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@BBT: Yeah, I'd even said that that was why I originally voted him. Scum wants to do what you described, you're absolutely right. But it couldn't have worked after there was already a wagon on BV. He was already in the spotlight, & he stayed there. That's my point. I think scum!BV would've broken off or began a real push against you asap. That didn't happen.
I mean, the scenario you're talking about works when scum isn't the creepy guy around the mislynch wagon, right? So why would scum continue the same strategy when they're already the creepy guy around the wagon?

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@BBT: I don't think I understand the question.

Here's how I see it: BV did this scummy thing pushing your wagon, the thing you described in 392. He gets called out for it. So the plan is futsch at that point because we're all paying attention to him. Yet he keeps on doing the same thing for about two more pages in the same manner. That last part is what I think is town. Scum would've made an explicit push (maybe on you, maybe on someone else) or made some excuse to backdown or something. Anything is better & more natural to scum than what BV did.

[Gosrir Elmer Odels]

Go back, & read it again. He didn't push to lynch you explicitly. He calls you a scumread once, but his push is framed mostly as a device to make you stop "withholding information." It's the same kind of push he made before he got called out.
À propos calling him out: there were several of us who didn't like his push. So I don't get that aspect either.
At which point should've his push succeeded? I voted him in 110, if he hadn't acted the way he did, I'd probably still be voting him, I guess.

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Can someone explain to me why Performer is better to lynch than Teacher?

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@gosrir: to which I ask, why do you feel like we aren't scumbuddies?
Why does Nos make you less anxious than tommy? What about now, and why?
You mentioned that you feel good about invisibility. Has anything changed on that read?

Teacher's vote on Gus seems to come off the back of your FOS. I haven't spelt it out, btw, but my reason of voting him is his Gus vote. That wagon was in the air at that point, & his hopping on it feels opportunistic if you look at his reasoning. Point is: if both of you were scum, he wouldn't have a reason to vote there becasue to much of the wagon's traction would've come from scum.
I don't like that Tommy liked my 77. It's also unclear why he's voting TC atm. Nos doesn't have those kind of issues, while his latest posts show a genuine attempt at scumhunting, so reagarding the "now" part, I feel better about him.
Invis's vote on BV was town imo. It was past the point when that wagon could've achieved something just by its momentum, so it confirmed to me that he had genuine suspicions. He hasn't really done anything lately except for something during Lefty vs Gus, which I don't have a firm grasp on right now. I'll need to reread that.

[Gosrir Elmer Odels]

@GEO could you explain what you meant by Gus’s wagon being in the air when Teacher voted? IIRC nobody had discussed him yet but me and Performer’s FOS. I was the only person voting Gus at the time.

It was pretty clear you were serious or about to get serious about your vote. You can go back & check, or just believe your own 253. With Perfomer's FOS, the game was bound to be about Gus for a few pages, so even though the wagon wasn't happening yet, it was as good as happening, so obviously one could join such a wagon. Teacher didn't get the wagon, though, gave wrong reasons, I'm voting him since then, you should do the same.
Of course, teacher being scum means that Gus is town, but I don't see why I'd need to assume Gus's townieness to reach my conclusion. (With that said, I do & did townread Gus to a degree.)

I still haven't reread the Gus vs Lefty part, I'll probably get to it on the weekend. Nonetheless, I don't think it'd give me much new info on either of them, but it should be useful for reading those who were discussing it at the time, in particular BBT & TC iirc. I have troubles forming reads about these two, so that should be fun. Cross-referencing BBT's posts with those of Garmr's & such.

Also, this game isn't that fast, it's manageable.

[Gosrir Elmer Odels]

You're asking for a lot, & I have very little time until about 18-20 hours from now. Quick points:
You severely overestimate your ability to conceal in which direction you want to push.
Gus was fairly open about his play & his interactions with BV were mildly town. Not a strong read, but it was there.
I don't like teacher's post: He pretends he had reasons for voting Gus he didn't have, while trying to normalise his original reasons. The rest feels just stating flimsy case-seeds very fast (both town & scum.) wave is less town because he didn't notice something? Invis is scum because he goes back on his reads? (That's not the current case on Invis, but if you don't get it, you might think it is.)
I can write more later if you want me to.

[Gosrir Elmer Odels]

I’m down for a fast day. I’m getting ready to play a game that ends in 36 hours so I need practice

i'm down for not doing that

Invisibility. If somebody fos’d you for your comment disagreeing with you, you wouldn’t think that person was scum?

If I voted or fos’d you for disagreeing with me, you would just ignore it?

Only skimmed the posts, but I want to address this because it's ridiculous at this point.
@Gus: Retrospectively BV scumread(s) BBT because of a disagreement. That disagreement is slightly more nuanced (should town provide literally every piece of information, including everything about their townreads or not), but it still was/is the core of his read iirc. You townread BV for that interaction. So let's just move on from this drama of yours because it's taking up way too much space. (Just to make it as clear as possible: the problem is that your reasoning is bad. Scumreading others for NAI is NAI.)

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@Gus: My point is that BV's & Performer's actions were very similar in spirit. You defended the former & lost your shit over the latter.

I like Performer's newest posts. I don't really agree with his opinions, but they seem to come from a genuine POV.

Tommy's posts, otoh, I don't like at all. Firsty, I don't get the Nos vote. Secondly, the format seems to me like honesty signalling. For this second I'd like to ask for some help: what's the site-meta on this? Does town do RL-days-long catchups in this format nowadays? (I got burnt in my last game by a case that started out from something similar, but I still think there might be merit in this notion.)

Here's a little something I'd like to throw out there to you: I'm currently townreading Garmr & Lefty for their proactivity. (Unless one of them is scumbuddies with Invis & Performer, but that doesn't sound possible.)

[Gosrir Elmer Odels]

@Tommy: You could've just read the game & made a post relevant to the current gamestate. Instead of what you ended up doing.
I reread the "Nos case." It's not a case.

[Gosrir Elmer Odels]

Okay, wiki insinuates that ascetics are usually not VTs.

intent to hammer

For the record, my current scumpool are teacher, Tommy, I also used to townread WM, but I'm not sure, & I have difficulties reading BBT. (& I also have way too many townreads.)

[Gosrir Elmer Odels]

@WM: I'm looking for that game, but I don't seem to be able to find it. When was this?

[Gosrir Elmer Odels]

retract intent

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@Invis: Why have you been playing the way you have?

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Okay, guys, I need an opinion. If what I'm saying is stupid, just tell me to shut up.

Invis is ascetic. His play was such that it (1) encouraged being investigated (2) discouraged being protected & (3) encouraged being killed (by town.)
(1) is harmful, (2) & (3) have little to no advantages. So that's a scumpoint, I think. Am I right?

[Gosrir Elmer Odels]

@Gus: Have you gone back to look at BV's scumread on BBT?

[Gosrir Elmer Odels]

From BV: 107
From you: 132, 162

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You defended him from being lynched. Are you just trying to be contrarian, or have you forgotten what we're arguing about?

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@Lefty: In the game WM mentioned, there was a discussion about whether Ascetics should be policy lynched (there was also a softish claimlike thing on page 1.) Ascetics are a liability to town, so obviously I expect town to try to counterbalance that in one way or another.

@Gus: They are similar. They're essentially the same.

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@Gus: 1. BV wasn't scumreading BBT for being an ass. It boiled down to whether town should give out every piece of information or not. 2. You made your comment on D1-length in the game. It's part of the game, trying to use it to deduce alignment is legitimate.

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At least you put a spin on it then, apparently...

[Gosrir Elmer Odels]

I'll hammer in an hour or so. But until then:
@Gus: Could you briefly summarise your reads on BBT & Lefty? Two sentences each, that's all I'm asking for. No questions asked.

[Gosrir Elmer Odels]

Oh, thank you, Invis :$
VOTE: Invis
& thank you Gus! I'll try to find that post you're talking about.

[Gosrir Elmer Odels]

This is

L-1

, btw.

[Gosrir Elmer Odels]

Maybe someone still has a question or something, I don't know.

[Gosrir Elmer Odels]

First things first, the most important new thing I've got right now, is that my townread on wavemode has been solidified. His comments from around the Invis wagon were definitely coming from a genuine PoV.

2nd: point is that everything said about teacher before the lynch is still valid. There's no change there, so
VOTE: teacher.
This is nothing new, though.

Thirdly, BV's 912 & 917 do contradict each other, quite blatantly, but I fail to see why that's indicative of him being scum.

[Gosrir Elmer Odels]

He is saying anything that fits with his narrative of scum!BBT to try and push my lynch.

You've been doing exactly the same with me.

Wait, what?

[Gosrir Elmer Odels]

He is saying anything that fits with his narrative of scum!BBT to try and push my lynch.

You've been doing exactly the same with me.

Are you admitting that

you

have been doing that to BBT?

[Gosrir Elmer Odels]

Could someone tell me a bit more about Tommy? (Or a lot more, actually...)

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@teacher: Could you post (or repost if you've done so previously) a brief but complete readlist?

@all:I asked about Tommy because he's the one who originally pushed Nos, so I'd really like to consider him, Garmr & Nos together right now. I got the impression the previous that many of you were townreading Tommy. Why?

[Gosrir Elmer Odels]

@Tommy: jeez, obviously the three of you aren't the scumteam. By "together" I meant "in relation to each other." I think there's little point discussing only one or two & thus not all three of you.

@teacher: Thank you.
There are two points I'd like you to elaborate on from what you've posted so far.
1. In 213 you named WM to be your "hardest townread." In your readlist you write a lot about why he's town, but you don't mention at all why he got relegated to just a townlean.
2. What did you like about 842 in particular? I personally felt that he did have a point, however, he presented it in an intellectually unsatisfying (? maybe manipulative?) way, by which I mean that on his lists there are many points that are practically duplicates or one entails the other.

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@teacher: Add your Perf read to the list of things I'd like to hear more about. Early on you had Performer as a townread. You said in 500 you didn't like the wagon on him. What happened?

@BBT: I'm kind of in the middle of something, but here's something: (no particular order within lines.)

WM, NM, TC, BV, Perf. The last two are kind of the same flavour, namely that they're just very enthusiastically making bad (not scummy bad, just bad) posts. BV more so than Perf. BV's actually got worse this day, even though you'd expect the opposite to happen if he'd had scumbuddies to teach him a few things during the night.

(Perf, kinda), BBT, Garmr. I'd have you as null, but some of the people I somewhat trust in this game seem to townread you.

Nos, Aristo. I used to like Nos's 488, but it didn't actually lead anywhere. If he's really about townhunting, he should be more transparent about his townreads. Garmr does have some points about him, he has been coasting, but I'm not sure how scummy that is. For Aristo I have this crackpot theory that Gus tried to make his slut look townier by trying to make his replace out seem to come from out of frustration in 873. I'm not sure about that. Aristo himself hasn't done much, though.

teacher, Tommy. Teacher's Gus vote seemed opportunistic, & his later posts kept giving me this trying-to-guess-what-the-others-want-to-hear feel. I want to see what happens to his readlist after some cross-questions. I didn't like Tommy's catch-up post, the quote-wall from the very start of the game felt like a gimmick to look town, & it had little to offer in terms of content. (BTW, for some reason I remembered he'd been universally townread at the time, but actually only Invis townread him.) He hasn't really been better since then. In 1040 he seems to pretend he pushed Nos D1, I guess.

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@Nos: The burden of proof is on your shoulders: Where do you have a townread that was presented in a persuasive way? You might be townhunting, but if so, then not in a way in which town could actually benefit from it.

@Garmr: Could you tell me about your read on Tommy? Why are you townreading him?

Should I address Perf? He seems to have thought Aristo was laughing at the idea that Gus was trying to make his replace out look town (as opposed to the typo I made.) He also seems to think that Gus replaced out b/c of being a toddler allegedly (alleged by Perf), not b/c he had RL issues, even though it's been pretty well established. (The first point is interesting, I guess. I'll ISO him during the weekend b/c I don't have time to do that earlier.)

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Garmr's town, Nos's scum.

VOTE: Nos

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In 1132 Nos is talking to Garmr in a way that seems to assume Garmr's town. Yet Nos's currently voting Garmr.

1133 seems like genuine town frustration. "Dragging it in circles" is a strikingly town thing to say imo.

@teacher: You haven't answered my question about Garmr & WM yet.

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I've fallen a bit behind with this game, I've been having a lot on my plate in the last few days. It should be better from next week on. Anyway, I'm fine with lynching Nos or Tommy.

@TC: (1) the Garmr vs Nos on the page on which I voted pushed me over the edge, & (2) the teacher wagon didn't seem to go anywhere at that moment. There's no point parking my vote achieving nothing. BTW, if you think one of WM, Lefty & teacher are scum, then it must be teacher. WM is surely town (I started the day with that), & Lefty/NM also very likely, although I want to go through an ISO just to make sure. However, even though I remember thinking teacher was scum while reading his readlist, after just having read these last few pages, I'm not so sure now.

[Gosrir Elmer Odels]

it is statistically more likely that JK prevents a kill rather than protects a kill.

What? No. They're equally likely. (I have a BA in maths.)

@TC: scumreadlist with a bit more detail, please?

@Garmr: How would've TC known BV jailed you at the time he wrote 974? You say that he might be investigative, but I don't see any reason why scum would investigate BV in particular. Also, I think it's pretty well-known that JK's can be used as doctors. You were one of the most townread players at the end of D1. I don't think TC would've thought you were jailed out of suspicion.

BTW, I'm content with putting Garmr in the conftown pile, & assuming he was jailed on N1 (& that TC was jailed on N2.)

[Gosrir Elmer Odels]

Actually, let's assume TC's a scum PR. Then it's essentially Tracker or RC, right? If he's a tracker, he cannot know BV's the gaolor, so he should assume doctor (by Occam's razor.) If he's RC, he could learn that BV's the gaolor, but whom he targeted. It could be either the meant-to-be NK, or the meant-to-be NKer. & in both cases we still have the question: why would any scum investigative role target BV of all people?

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@Garmr: Yeah, I get it's not the only element of your case, but it's the part that resonated the most with me.

I came to terms with Perf's silly, but I wish he could contain the silly to single posts, & refrain from multi-posting, especially with his current gif avatar.

@TC: Aren't you townreading WM? I'd like to hear more about your read on WM, briefly or in detail, I don't care which. It's important.

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Fine, I'm fine with this.
VOTE: TChill
L-2

& I guess I'm officially a non-competent player for my previous reads...

PEDIT: I'm pretty sure NM is not scum. Lefty was way too town.

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FYI, I want to read teacher's promised long post, but I don't think I'll vote anyone else, & I'm fine with a short day.

PEDIT: tomorrow could possibly be mylo.

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@Perf: There's no need to asterisk-correct your post, it'd make the same amount of sense without it. (What I mean is, don't do that, or if you really have to, find at least a less obnoxious avatar.)

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@WM: I'm listening. I don't think I'm really the person who should judge Perf's possible alignment, so go ahead, I'm happy to hear your input.

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I see the points against Perf. My main problem is that he hasn't been the most coherent even on D1 (can I say that?) I made a small comment on D2 about how BV & Perf are similar. What I didn't say was that I had stopped reading BV's post because surely he was town anyway, but trying to understand what he was saying made my head hurt. So my point is that I see how Perf could be scum, but I could also see that as just him being bad.

@teacher: What do you think about TC not townreading Garmr?

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@teacher: I'm a lot more comfortable with lynching TC right now than Perf. Next day we could lynch Perf, or if TC flips town, I can be policy lynched, I don't care, I take full responsibility. But I prefer the TC wagon. I mean, Perf's currently trying to push a counterwagon. If you think Perf is scum, you should also think that TC's at least very likely to be scum.

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^teacher did put it nicely together, but TC's post above is BS. Everything in teacher's post had already been posted before.

[Gosrir Elmer Odels]

Haven't read everything yet, but I must ask: are Perf & Nos just having a really long stroke right now? Nos's faux maths about the JK was bad enough, but this mylo-lylo fuckery is even worse.

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There's 1 player who's NK'd, & 1 player who executes the NK. Obviously the JK has equal chance of using their night action on either of them.
Do you also want me to spell out why today is neither mylo nor lylo?

I want to go back & look for crumbs for the Mason claim. For now, I don't believe it. I don't think there's any player who's been around since 2015 & long enough to have a meta who'd think that after mylo you have lylo with a lynch inbetween. So Perf is scum for now.

[Gosrir Elmer Odels]

Teacher, you're supposed to become a teacher, ffs. If TC tries to kill Garmr, you need to JK TC to RB the NK, or JK Garmr to protect him. Which is more likely? Neither is. I hope you'll be an English or geography teacher...

[Gosrir Elmer Odels]

Actually, I was wrong, & Nos's wrong. The JK is more likely to RB the NK... :$ Sorry teacher.

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Try to behave yourself. Do you believe the mason claim?

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There's exactly one player I can imagine as mason to Perf. If they claim, I believe it, otherwise not.

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@Perf: If you're really mason, then you might as well just name your partner, & provide breadcrumbs from them. (Because that one player that could be mason would have definitely breadcrumbed their mason, & told you about it.)

[Gosrir Elmer Odels]

There's no way if Perf makes a "secret message", scum won't find out about it. There's only so many posts he'll make today. If it's not blatantly obvious, then it might be ambiguous enough for scum to find another "breadcrumb" supporting them. If Perf is mason (dubious), & we don't have another claim, all we gain at best is confusion (which isn't really a gain.) If we demand another mason claim, then we could have an IC next day, or we could find one or two scum (depending on whether there's a claim or not.)

Secondly, the first half of my post is irrelevant, because there's already at most one reasonable candidate for a masonbuddy. So we gain literally nothing from them not claiming. Also, I'm pretty sure this candidate would have breadcrumbed on D2 at the latest. But I don't even want the breadcrumb from them. I want the breadcrumb only if Perf outs his supposed masonbuddy.

PEDIT: I still want a quick day, & I'm fine with lynching TC.

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I'm not sure whether the CC comment is directed at me or not. It'd make sense for scum to CC the 2nd mason claim once Perf's dead. Not today, though.

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@Nos: That's wifom, so I don't want to get into it.

Also, I don't really get what TC wants to achieve by reiterating how him flipping town would mean my lynch. Like, yeah, I know, I'd even addressed it before he did. But I guess it

looks

like content.

[Gosrir Elmer Odels]

1. I can't find anything like that. But do provide it. 2. My post wasn't about that. It's about you posting long non-content presented as content. 3. I don't believe Perf's claim, so he's also a scumread. I don't think I should say more until we've confirmed Perf's alignment.

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I'll read WM's analysis tomorrow.

@Perf: who's your buddy? Do you have a breadcrumb from them?

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Bah!

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@teacher: How did you notice I was a PR? o_O

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@teacher: Well, I said it in the dead thread about your D2 readlist in particular, but it's also true in general: I'm very much impressed by your play in this game.

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Spoiler: Performer

I think I'll call out geo and teacher for messing up l2 and l1, and how scummy that is.

That's not what happened. I don't think I'm particularly I'm likely to mess up such a thing, as I always check the last few pages before making such statements.
If I can give one constructive point of criticism: read & fact-check. Both your & others' posts. Many times your posts had nothing to do with the then-current game-state. It took more effort to decipher them from their distorted fantasyland PoV than your posts' merits , so late D2 or early D3 I just stopped reading you, period. In the dead thread Gus also made a comment about not reading you, so I assume there might be others like me.

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Above I meant to quote, not spoiler, sorry

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@Perf: Yeah, I put TC on L-2. Then he was at L-1 later. He needs to go through L-1 from L-2 to get to being lynched... This is evident. The point is that I didn't mess up L-2 & L-1.