Mini Normal 2030: Day 8

[Light Ethos]

you could help
fix
that

That's asking me to start a third wagon with you. According to you, profii might be interested too. That's only 3 votes. Mister Rogers sees other compelling choices. Naomi-Tan has been helping Sashaddin, so she's unlikely to flip on that. How are you getting to magic number 7 that way?

[Light Ethos]

Crimson hardclaim now

Town Doctor bby

This current post is only after being caught up to what I quoted. I'm sure stuff has happened since then.

I'm not caught up yet, but what the actual fuck? I'm lost. If I had to vote a claimed power role Day 1, the worst is who I would choose, not Crimson.
UNVOTE: Crimson

[Light Ethos]

Alright, I'm caught up now. Why does a town Doctor immediately hard claim without first defending himself? Why does Krazy force a hard claim when he was the L-1 vote, and nobody has announced intent?

[Light Ethos]

But tell me why we should do the Golfball today and not Krazy - that Crimson vote was terrible, Krazy will fight the lynch but you can’t really argue with it and Golfball will surely slip later and be easier

Saudade.......

iso me and read my case on the golfball im not repeating myself over and over like a broken fucking record

How does your case on Golfball explain that he is a better lynch than Krazy, which is the question I’m asking?

I also want an answer to this. I think that what Krazy just did has scum motivation more often than town motivation. Why is Sashaddin the better vote here? Don't just repeat the same line of "because he's scum and scum is the best vote." You've spent far too much time continuing to spam vote Sash posts without justifying why he was a better choice in those posts. I am aware that you generally answer questions when asked. I hope you'll answer this one too.

VOTE: Krazy

[Light Ethos]

VOTE: gamma
Out you go then

Vote in me or gamma

Wait what...? What are you doing? You jumped from being like "Sashaddin is scum, and everyone who doesn't see it is bad" to "Everyone drop everything and vote one of us out of the game." How is that helpful?

[Light Ethos]

Im just tired of repeating myself

The question profii asked is a different question than "Why is Sashaddin scum?" The questions you continue answering are "Who do you think is scum?" and "Why do you think Sashaddin is scum?" That doesn't help us understand why Sashaddin is the scummiest. You answered that question when I asked about Crimson. profii just asked it about Krazy. I think it's reasonable for us to expect you to answer it if you want a different wagon to start.

[Light Ethos]

This is the lesson i learned in my first newbie game on this site

My first game on the site was replacing in as Vanilla Town into a slot that had been slightly scumread. RadiantCowbells was running the show as town and was jumping in full game solve mode the entire time. They let me live until the end of the game, and I had an awful WIFOM to decide. I had to choose between a slot that was largely inactive for the majority of the last two days of the game and RadiantCowbells who was curiously alive until the end of the game despite town getting both PR's outed and killed by the start of Day 2. I voted the correct person, but RadiantCowbells didn't because he stuck to the town's consensus on the previous holder of the slot before I replaced in. Lesson learned from that game is that Day 1 reads can be wrong. Story time was nice. Now back to the game.

Why is Sashaddin a better vote than Krazy?

PEDIT: the worst's ISO is far worse than Sashaddin's in my book. Sashaddin has pushed back against you, has commented on things, and has posted some read lists once Naomi-Tan gave him encouragement to come out of the shadows. To me, Sashaddin is closer to a coinflip of asking myself if he's just a passive type of player. What Krazy did feels harder to justify from town. Thank you for posting the read list.

[Light Ethos]

By my count, it's Flavor Leaf, Mister Rogers, me, and Gamma. Someone count again to be sure.

[Light Ethos]

This game has become a mass claim

[Light Ethos]

I don't even think it was L-2. Pretty sure it's L-3.

[Light Ethos]

Sash is going to keep playing exactly like he is, completely useless and if you wont find him scum now you never will.

This is the same logic we had for Crimson, more or less.

[Light Ethos]

If theres going to be a wagon on me its going to be now

Why is this true? Wouldn't it be much more likely after a green Sashaddin flip?

[Light Ethos]

I'm not dancing around you. I stand by those votes I've made with the knowledge I had at the time.

[Light Ethos]

Sashaddin is new, and this might just be how he plays. The passivity isn't necessarily helpful though. Saudade is experienced here, and this is probably just how he plays. The tunneling isn't helpful unless he's right.
I liked your case and reasoning against the worst. He still is my main scum read. If I'm wrong about you in this moment, Saudade, I'll learn a lot from this game. I still think both Mister Rogers and Saudade are town.

UNVOTE: Krazy
VOTE: Sashaddin

I'm interested to see what Flavor Leaf thinks. I see him voting Saudade here, but I don't know.

[Light Ethos]

WTF!?

HE IS FREAKING NEIGHBOR!!!

He aint no vig!!!!!!!!!

LYNCH IT WITH FIRE!

Vote: Krazy

Wait, you can't be a Neighbor with a vig? Honest question. I'll repeat again that my first real vote of the game was Krazy for rolefishing Doughboy in Neighborhood chat.

[Light Ethos]

The tunneling isn't helpful unless he's right.

He keeps coming at me, says nothing else but "Lynch Sash!" for a week then acts surprised when he is my center of attraction. It's pretty hard to focus on 11 other players when you get harassed like I did.

You're right. I had this same problem with Naomi-Tan until she corrected me and wanted me to both interact with her and poke around at other parts of the game. I haven't seen you do that much.

[Light Ethos]

So to be clear, you want to lynch the one TPR that has a confirmable night action?

you shoot rogers tonight

This is anti-town.

[Light Ethos]

From the Neighbor page:

Neighbor can also be considered a modifier under Normal rules, so it may be combined with other power roles.

Let's put this to rest. Shooting Rogers is not helpful. The guy is putting effort into trying to gamesolve, and Doughboy was a green read from most of the active players.

[Light Ethos]

@Mister Rogers: Neighbor Just follow the link.

[Light Ethos]

Where in the description for Normal game is that impossible?

Roles which are explicitly Normal for Town only include:
Vanilla Townie, Friendly Neighbor, Innocent Child, Mason, Miller, Vigilante, Vengeful, any roles listed as "for any alignment"

From Normal Game.

So Town Vigilante is normal. From the Neighbor page I linked earlier, Neighbor can be a modifier for a power role under normal rules. What's the problem?

[Light Ethos]

@Mister Rogers: You think Saudade's push on Sashaddin is scum motivated?

[Light Ethos]

Ah, like having a fifth ace.

This post made me smile

Spoiler: Don’t read if you aren’t Sashaddin, or you don’t care about being spoiled for a video game

Sasha, do you play Ace Attorney?

Spoiler: For Gamma's eyes only

OBJECTION!

[Light Ethos]

@Mister Rogers: You think Saudade's push on Sashaddin is scum motivated?

This is an interesting question. Would scum Sauda tunnel town Sasha so vehemently. Well, I think its WIFOM to say he wouldn't because tomorrow things look alot different -- I mean its an honest mistake isn't it?

You see Sasha is low hanging fruit, an easy target for scum because he is new and reads scummy naturally. That way when he flips town, its easy to explain.

I think red!Saudade gives up on trying to push green!Sashaddin at some point and just jumps on one of the wagons. Manatee's ISO looked awful before he left. That was a fine place to migrate to if he didn't feel like putting effort into it. He could have left his vote there while poking around with probing questions. I also don't think red!Saudade tries this hard to distance himself from red!Sashaddin.

[Light Ethos]

do I look like the kind of player who needs to lynch newbies to win games as scum

If you are scum you just want to get to night in ANY way you can just like any other scum does.

There were much easier ways of doing that this game. There are so many players who stepped back from the game who are still going to get through to the next day. Why wouldn't Saudade be one of them too? Jamming a Sashaddin vote through was not the easiest way or best way to get through the day for red!Saudade, especially if it's green!Sashaddin.

[Light Ethos]

Hey I think you hit on a very probable solution. That Sauda is bussing. You can tell from his blustery character that he would lynch newbie scum in a heartbeat. The one thing about that is something else would also have to true for it to be a bus but I can't go into details.

Look scum coasting includes tunneling too. I mean look it made you think he is likely town, right?

I think it's more likely that Saudade is frustrated town who is convinced of his read than scum.
Here's a line to consider before you jumpstart a train on the most active member of the thread other than yourself:

Flavor Leaf said that he would fight the trains on Manatee and the worst because of wagon composition. Krazy was his top scum choice, and he said that he would go in on Krazy later one night (Post 757.) That same night, Krazy posted a read list, and while both of them went back and forth over the list, Flavor Leaf never actually followed through on what he said he would do. I even asked him if the back and forth was what he was referring to, and he responded with no. He has kept his vote on Krazy since then and has been content to coast on it. He popped back into the thread a few hours ago to say that Krazy would flip scum. Well Krazy hasn't flipped scum yet, and he's a second vig claim.

Flavor Leaf's play this game feels similar to Saudade's, but Saudade has been much more insistent on getting his lynch through.

red!Saudade would likely just want to get a lynch through at this point before new players have the chance to catch up to the game and likely wouldn't put effort into starting a wagon on another player.

I don't see a compelling red!Saudade case in light of that comparison between the two.

[Light Ethos]

now you guys can vote either me, or vote sasha
i love me a good chainsaw

I don't think this is the right choice to set up for the players who are not here right now.

[Light Ethos]

I didn't forget your vig claim. I referenced it earlier.

[Light Ethos]

For a long while I thought of them as being scum together; they both have scummy behaviors. I have to give TL more credit because he keeps his cases and votes more organized than Sauda does. Sauda makes scum accusations without the slightest reason why (I mean Krazy) which means he either is making it up or following some external source that doesn't provide reasoning for the target choice.

You missed that TL said he would not support a Sasha/Manatee lynch?

I remember him defending Manatee and the worst. I don't remember Sashaddin, but if I missed it, I missed it.

If Flavor Leaf and Krazy are vigging each other tonight, we probably should have our vote elsewhere. It's not an easy choice between Creature and Sashaddin for me. Manatee's play lined up with a scum game of his. Sashaddin's play for much of the game has been passive and isolated to Saudade or a current wagon, with few questions to other players.

Creature gave a lynchpool of Crimson, Krazy, and Sashaddin without justifying it. Sashaddin hasn't really broken out of his 1v1 in terms of posting content. This feels like a coinflip. I'll have to think about information gained as the tiebreaker.

[Light Ethos]

A lot

[Light Ethos]

Scum has gotten a free game with all of the players who disappeared

[Light Ethos]

All of them. I don't trust your slot enough to just give them to you. If you're town, it won't be too hard to track them down, and it's worth doing the due diligence to find them. If you're scum, just ask someone in your PT.

[Light Ethos]

I lied. I’m not a vig.

I was testing you.

How was this a test? You crumbed vig a long time ago.

[Light Ethos]

No. We've known Mister Rogers is a Neighbor since near the beginning of the thread.

[Light Ethos]

And this is PART of the argument why we don't keep running up wagons on people after we get a lynchable claim. I failed here by not forcing everyone to say whether they believe or not before going to another wagon. Its kind of like the FAIL of not lynching V/T claims.

Fair enough. the worst has been apathetic to the game for almost all of the game. I said it before, if I have to vote a power role claim today, it would be the worst. If I'm allowed to vote the person who is the most scummy, I vote the worst. I don't believe his claim, and I do believe that he's been content to just chill his way through Day 1. Then he replaced out.

UNVOTE: Sashaddin
VOTE: the worst

[Light Ethos]

I really did not like the interaction between Rogers and Saudade from 103-104. Really unproductive bickering between two players that are at least lean green from most players in the game right now.

Because your scumreads contradict themselves constantly, if you think the worst is scum, and you do you just wanted to lynch him despite him being PR so you're pretty certain hes scum, you have to assume that I bussed my partner day one for no good reason while players like Flavor Leaf and Krazy were defending him

This is a problem for anyone who wants to both lynch Saudade and who believes that the worst is scum. the worst was an awful bus candidate at the time that Saudade started the push. Saudade fabricated a wagon on him out of nowhere. Yes, it's possible that Saudade then wanted to defend him by saying that we're not killing a claimed power role Day 1. I find it to be incredibly unlikely that he would do that.

[Light Ethos]

TL;DR for my Day 1 vote pool:

Possible votes:

the worst, Sashaddin, Creature, Gamma

Off-limits:

Mister Rogers, Saudade, Flavor Leaf, Naomi-Tan, profii, Crimson, Krazy, almost

Frank

We need to decide what to do with the worst's slot in terms of who he will investigate if we let him live.

The quick time crunch out of nowhere was a surprise. I compared Creature's ISO and Sashaddin's, and I don't see a substantive difference between the two players' approach to this Day. almost's slot is off limits for me. He will not have enough time to read and to provide content to analyze.

I've posted multiple times about why red!Saudade is very unlikely to me given his choices throughout this day. I'm not voting him today. Also off limits to me are Mister Rogers, Flavor Leaf, profii, Naomi-Tan, Crimson, and Krazy.


I don't buy his claim, and I do believe that his play during Day 1 was anti-town. I'm fine with voting him out. I'm also fine with a vote on Sashaddin, Creature, or Gamma.
I can give reasons for people if you ask, but in the interest of time, I think it's valuable for me to get my thoughts out quickly and then respond later.

[Light Ethos]

I don't buy his claim, and I do believe that his play during Day 1 was anti-town. I'm fine with voting him out.

This refers to the worst.

[Light Ethos]

Remember we dicussed this earlier and even Profii agrees with me. Scum know all the alignments and if they are bussing or not. Before we get any flips, its is PRE-FLIP ASSOCIATIONS which are completely unreliable. We should read both slots independently, if we read them both as scum then there could be bussing but the point is that reads are not certain -- flips are certain (without role madness) and that's the only time that associations work; i.e. POST-FLIP. Its too easy for scum to manipulate town who suffer from lack of information.

I don't fully agree with you on this. While you're absolutely right to say that associations are much better and more reliable when you have more information (post-flip), I think that pre-flip associations are worth considering as long as you consider all possible permutations of the interaction you're examining instead of simply locking down on one that you expect to see. By no means am I suggesting that pre-flip associations should be the main consideration in vote selection Day 1, but I don't have a good reason to exclude that from my consideration process.

Associations are a part of the conscious choices players make when they post. While some choices are spur-of-the-moment, most choices often have some motivation behind them. Looking at the interactions between two players when one is pushing the other can helpful in assessing whether a player is scum or town. For Saudade, I asked the question "Why would Saudade do this to Sashaddin?" I then looked into some possible motivations for each permutation of red and green for both players. It was difficult to come up with strategically sound, high-likelihood reasons for why red!Saudade would push Sashaddin regardless of Sashaddin's alignment.

I admit that I can be wrong about this. Everyone has been fooled by scum at some point in their Mafia career. I do think that completely disregarding pre-flip associations because they're not completely reliable is more harmful than it is helpful. We'll see if I stand by this statement after my 20th Mafia game.

[Light Ethos]

tw is probably town too. Either that or he has a very good scumster coaching him (that would be Flavour Leaf 99% of the time).

P-edit:

@Ethos: scum!tw necessitates scum!FL in my mind. tw isn't capable of faking this kind of play/claim on his own and planning it in advance (he

has

been crumbing a PR alright). Furthermore, a Gunsmith can be found out (if fake) pretty easily, although the Vig outing doesn't help in this regards.

Tell me something (bc I'm ISOing and not reading the thread as a whole): Did the Vig out before or after tw claimed GS?

I am not disregarding the possibility of scum!FL and scum!tw. There are many possible scum teams in my mind, and I will need to see results from today's flip to narrow them down. I didn't see the worst crumb his PR claim. I read his evasiveness as a lack of concern for anything other than his own survival. That's a scum mentality to have, even if you're a power role. He also claimed well before getting to L-1. Why is the worst not capable of fake claiming? Are you just throwing shade, or is that coming from somewhere?

I might have the order wrong, but I do believe that Flavor Leaf heavily suggested that he was a Vig after the Gunsmith claim happened, and then way way way later Krazy claimed Vig and Flavor Leaf said that he had fake claimed earlier.

[Light Ethos]

tw has been mentioning the Vig often way before Krazy said he was the Vig.

Flavor Leaf was the Vig the worst was referring to way before Krazy said he was the Vig. It was a fake claim, but it wasn't one that anyone pushed back against until profii said that Krazy and Flavor Leaf should shoot each other.

[Light Ethos]

Does town catch scum Day 1 more often than not? Some of today's options feel much more like a coinflip than I'd like.

[Light Ethos]

Worst well oh my lookie here he has so many options to extend his life and make him believable

Yup. He could even claim roleblocked for all we know.

[Light Ethos]

What necessary reading? I said I’d read the content generated after I joined and no less barring me determining it being a circle jerk

If you are only willing to read the content that happens after you join, how do you expect to interact with knowledge players are working with when they speak to each other?

[Light Ethos]

More importantly, how do you hunt for scum if the vast majority of what players have done has already happened? That means you have to commit to sheeping a case someone else makes.

[Light Ethos]

Only Mister Rogers made it out like it was imperative that you read everything. My challenge was that it seemed like you didn't want to read much of anything and were pointing to a scum game where you did reread the thread to say that that's why you are town.

One reason for putting you in my pool is that a sizeable portion of your posts are from a back and forth with Rogers about reading. Your posts that surround votes are choices to jump on another player's logic, and you ask few questions to get more information. If you weren't going to read the thread, and you weren't going to ask many questions that weren't about yourself, then how can you reasonably expect to find scum effectively?

[Light Ethos]

My apologies but QFFT!

? What did this mean?

[Light Ethos]

Only Mister Rogers made it out like it was imperative that you read everything[SNIP WTHECK!?]

Clearly untrue if you read my entire interactions with both Gamma and About.

Oh really? Try again:

Whew. I have finally read this whole thread. I seriously dislike the fact that Gamma doesn't wish to do the same. Scum-coast points for Gamma.

You gave him scum-coast points because he didn't read the whole thread. Don't you dare try to claim now after the fact that it wasn't imperative to you that he read the entire thread like you did.

[Light Ethos]

Quoted for "fantastic" truth. Not sure about the word fantastic though.

Thank you, Sashaddin and thank you, Mister Rogers.

[Light Ethos]

No offense but I think this PoE sucks, not because I am in it but because I am in it (long dramatic pause) AND Naomi and Light are in it.

100% this. It makes zero sense for you to put both of us in that pool together. We can both be town together. One of us can be town, the other mafia. We can't both be scum together.

In that context, your pool is incredibly unlikely to be true, as it requires either the scum team to be exactly Rogers, Saudade, and Gamma or a permutation of 1 in {Naomi,Light Ethos} and 2 in {Rogers, Saudade, Gamma}. I don't see that happening.

[Light Ethos]

Does anyone see what I am saying here.

Yes. If FL is scum this game, his play earlier defending Manatee was excellent and got me good. Still, I have a few plausible scum teams in mind that do include him.

[Light Ethos]

Scum team of 3 on Day 1

Let’s lynch Rogers, guys.

You do realize that Saudade had a 3 person scum team for a while, right? Only the Krazy claim derailed it. Speaking of which:

@Krazy: Why did you ask Doughboy if he was a power role if you were going to claim to be a power role later on?

[Light Ethos]

This is a misrep. I never said you guys were both scum nor both town, nor one or the other

It's not a misrepresentation. Read my post more carefully.
I'm saying that your pool falls apart. You have a pool of 5 people that have 3 scum in them.

I'm saying that it is ridiculous to think that both Naomi and I are scum together. The rest of the post explicitly lists the possible scum teams you propose when you exclude the possibility of Naomi and I being scum together. When you exclude that possibility, your pool falls apart.

[Light Ethos]

Either you didn't understand my post, or you aren't as comfortable using logic in your analysis like you alluded to earlier.

[Light Ethos]

You honestly think it's plausible to say that my interaction with Naomi-Tan early in the game was SvS?

[Light Ethos]

I don’t even really remember you two early game.

I remember myself and Naomi early game.

Early relative to where we are now. After she had her interaction with you, she hounded me for an extended period of time and then she got busy and faded away.

[Light Ethos]

110 page d1... this is M E S S E D U P,

Good to know that I have a good reason to feel that my first experience outside Newbie is a shitshow. There have been at least four inactive slots for the vast majority of the game. It's made it much harder to make reads.

Glad to see you. You were a great IC in the game we played before.

I have to leave for now, but I'll be back late tonight.

[Light Ethos]

Alright. I got back in from work a lot later than I had hoped, and I had to take work home with me that needed to be completed by the morning. Rogers. You're here. I haven't caught up since I've left. Can you give me a quick summary since the day is almost over. Also I see a wagon going on the Doctor claim. Do I hammer it or not?

[Light Ethos]

To where I was caught up, my strongest town reads are Rogers and almost. I'm fine with doing what you want here.

[Light Ethos]

Whoa disregard posts 3027 and 3028 entirely please. I completely forgot that we got a time extension. Those two posts were in the context of expecting that the deadline was within the next few minutes. Going to catch up now and finish this day out normally. Again, please disregard 3027 and 3028.

[Light Ethos]

I'm all caught up now. Wall incoming in the post after this one. I just need to get this out of the way.

Everyone here witnessed OVER AND OVER why I proved that Worst FAKECLAIMED.

The only way to prove that is by flipping him as something other than Town Gunsmith. I have reason not to believe either the worst's claim or Crimson's claim. I'm not going to believe them until I see otherwise. However, if town wants to avoid killing known power roles Day 1, that's fine with me. There are other reasonable choices today.

[Light Ethos]

Before I make this post, something interesting I noticed here is that even though Performer substituted in for Saudade, he’s reading the game completely differently than the way Saudade did. Saudade was adamant that the worst and Sashaddin were scum together. He did not buy the worst’s claim, and he did not buy Sashaddin’s Newbie excuse. Performer has become somewhat of a carbon copy of Flavor Leaf with respect to Saudade. He buys green!Sashaddin, and he buys green!theworst. Completely different players in the same slot. I haven’t seen that happen in replaces before, but I’m sure it does happen.

[Light Ethos]

I wrote responses in chronological order in the way Naomi-Tan handled her catch up posts, but I'll try to keep it all in this single post with some light formatting. Spoilers contain longer linked quotes for convenience.
2842:

@Mr. Rogers:

Thank you so much for the positive feedback. I’ve always been a physics, math, and statistics person, and it kinda permeates my life as you can see through some of my posts this game.
2852:

@Flavor Leaf:

Why would I attack you? While I'm here, I'll say that I really liked the question you asked in 2845, and I would have asked the same question at that point too.

2860 with Almost50 asking for meta reads from both of us on each other:

Spoiler:

Glad to see you. You were a great IC in the game we played before.

GOOD! So you two can give reads on each other that are better than mine on either of you. Please do help (of course Performer needs to post some for Light to be able to form a read)

We played together twice. My first game on the site, I replaced in as Vanilla Town and accidentally was the L-1 on Performer who was only mildly active at the time. Confirmed scum hammered him immediately. (Rookie mistake on my part, but I got the WIFOM right at the end of the game.) Second game, I caught him delaying answers to my questions and found it scummy. We lynched him that day. I still remember reading afterward how you shit talked me in the Mafia private thread that game. He wanted to pocket me and try to use me later in the game because he inferred the wrong things about me from my actions in my first game on-site. The point is, however, that we haven’t had very extended interactions yet, and it’ll take a lot for him to undo the green lean that I already had on Saudade.

2892 with Almost50 discussing strategy around a Crimson lynch:

Spoiler:

Scum Doctor flip makes it so we can without a doubt trust any gunsmith investigative, too.

I see your point, but I have a problem with this "straight forward" theoretical process of thought: If Crimson flips Scum!Doc then both of Krazy/tw will be shot for sure. Sometimes I would rather leave someone alone to protect someone else. In this case

assuming

scum doctor is alive then -at least- one of the TPRs will stay alive because the doctor is supposed to be protecting them. If they both go down that's a guilty on the claimed doctor slot. (I hope I didn't send everyone looking for an English-Martian dictionary to decipher what I'm trying to say)

I hope you will believe me when I say that there is no sarcasm here: Thank you for the strategic insight. I think that’s a fine strategy, but it sets up a pretty wicked WIFOM later in the game in both the red!Crimson case and the green!Crimson case.

2906,2907 with Krazy seeking a Manatee slot lynch:

Spoiler:

I hard hard hard defended his slot all game

Yeah you hard defended a slot that did 0 scumhunting and was self-voting for half the day cycle and then argued you should be townread because you were white knighting an afk slot. Now you're hard-defending Creature because of bullshit meta reasons and FoSing an awful lot of obvious town

I gave my thoughts on FL defending Manatee contemporaneously, and FL’s defense of the worst was originally for meta reasons. The difficult position I’m in is that I don’t see genuine scum hunting from multiple slots: {the worst, Crimson, Sashaddin, Gamma, Creature.} We’ve also had 3 ill-timed PR claims, and early in the thread, there was a conflict between two Neighbors that immediately became part of the public thread. And then there are the copious amounts of replace outs or lapses in activity/interest. This has been a difficult Day 1, and unfortunately I can’t even say that it’s mainly because of a great scum team. I only get one vote. There are many reasonable choices to me based on what I have seen so far if I go by individual engagement on behalf of town. Potential tie-breakers are:
1. Ability to clarify associations/Information gained
2. Mechanical considerations around claimed roles

2910 the mic drop mason reveal:

HOLY FUCK I DID NOT SEE THIS COMING AT ALL. I almost never bring out the all caps, and I almost never curse. Someone else shaded that there might be another Neighborhood out there. I don’t remember who it was. If it was Creature, then I’ll buy this story without hesitation. Shit. If you are scum by some extremely low probability event, FL, you have absolutely fooled me this game, and I will study your games to learn how to play creatively. As touched on above, I mentioned the Flavor Leaf/Manatee interaction in 925, and FL’s 2910 aligns with my plausible town!FL reasoning in 925. Now I see the payoff: he had reason to be confident in his read because Manatee was confirmed town to him.

2926 with Performer asking for read lists from certain players:

Yes, I can provide a read list, but I will wait until tomorrow. I already spent a while writing this, and I do have obligations tomorrow. Keep in mind the crazy high post count has largely come from Saudade spamming a shove on Sashaddin. That man can spam. I still think he’s town though.

2936 with Performer questioning some perceived discrepancies between this game and my other two town games with him:

Spoiler:

Alright, I'm caught up now. Why does a town Doctor immediately hard claim without first defending himself? Why does Krazy force a hard claim when he was the L-1 vote, and nobody has announced intent?

Break this down for me - what was questionable about kraz getting someone at L-1 to claim, regardless of intent to hammer? This is strange. I've seen your town play before and I find it fishy of you to post something like this.

Sashaddin is new, and this might just be how he plays. The passivity isn't necessarily helpful though. Saudade is experienced here, and this is probably just how he plays. The tunneling isn't helpful unless he's right.
I liked your case and reasoning against the worst. He still is my main scum read. If I'm wrong about you in this moment, Saudade, I'll learn a lot from this game. I still think both Mister Rogers and Saudade are town.

UNVOTE: Krazy
VOTE: Sashaddin

I'm interested to see what Flavor Leaf thinks. I see him voting Saudade here, but I don't know.

This post sounds like possible fence sitting. "don't know, if I'm wrong, interested to see" what FL thinks.

It looks different from your 2 town games, Light.

Why is it fishy for a town player to post something like 2198? Why is it fishy for me specifically to post something like this as town? Finally, how can you be at all confident of a meta read of me when I only have two games I could play through on site?

I’m not sure that I’ll call this genuine scum hunting. What you said about me in the Mafia PT for that last game wasn’t true. You characterized me as someone who just makes decisions and goes with them. That isn’t how I played my first game on the site (the first game that you played with me and a game that you weren’t very active in.) It also isn’t how I played that second game where I got suspicious of you early on and where you got lynched Day 1 as a Mafia Roleblocker. So two things about this. First, I’ve only played two games on this site (not counting the two games I had to replace out of almost immediately in a busy week of work.) I’ve learned a great deal from both games I’ve played, just as I’ve learned a great deal over the course of this Day 1. It seems a bit disingenuous for you to be surprised that my play in this game would be different from my other two, when I’ve also been learning a lot more about the game during that time too. It’s one thing to say that this looks different from what you’ve seen from someone with a long history on the site. It’s another to say that about someone who still qualifies as a Newbie.

I didn’t voice it, but I initially took offense to your claim that I always find you suspicious. The first part of 2936 does not sit well with me, and the small things do add up. I’m not holding it against you because Saudade earned a strong green lean from me. However, you sometimes skip important details when you poke at my statements. I don’t know if it’s just a dynamic we have with each other, or if it’s just part of how you play. My offense was not just to Krazy forcing a hard claim at L-1. By itself, from what I’ve read, that’s a pretty normal thing to expect. Context matters. I took offense to Krazy forcing yet another claim from someone else, as my introduction to Krazy on the thread was Doughboy flying off the handle about Krazy rolefishing him in Neighborhood chat. I also took offense to Krazy being the one to seek that claim instead of having that come from someone who would represent the hammer vote. The mod had just announced that Crimson was planning to replace out. Only then, did Krazy ask for the hard claim. I took offense to Krazy not leaving it to the person who would replace in to claim.

About the second part of 2936:

Yeah, surprise: Normal games are more involved and complex than Newbie games are. If you expect me to have concrete reads in this game with the context of multiple slots being virtually nonexistent for a significant, non-negligible part of the game, you’re out of your mind. It’s wrong for you to throw shade on me for wanting to know how other players react to what I’m seeing unfold in front of me.

Let me be clear however.

I wasn’t wanting to see what Flavor Leaf thought because I wanted any goodwill from him then or later, and what he did there would not have changed my vote. I wanted to see what he thought because it would put on record a key overlap or difference between Saudade and Flavor Leaf that would at some point be useful in association analysis after some flips happen.

At that point in time, I found it very unlikely that either Saudade or Flavor Leaf would be the Day 1 lynch, so it would be helpful later to look back on that interaction, particularly Flavor Leaf’s choice of vote in response.

Different from my two town games? Sure. The first game on site, I replaced in after the two town power roles were outed and killed, and a Mafia had already gotten himself caught. The second game, we found you Day 1 somewhat quickly, and we got your partner pretty quickly on Day 2. This game has been much more complex than those two were.

2966 with Performer calling for scum reads on Mister Rogers:

Spoiler:

also I think both neighbors are town

Is there anyone scumreading rogers? I certainly am not townreading him based on his ISO. Asked for me & creat to be lynched or vigged.

if there's a pr I'd be ok with lynching, it'd be rogers of all the possible and claimed prs. His 2337 is also scummy as he has me on a death list. His 2636 further pinned creat & saud as scum. Also, there is sometimes scum in a hood so there's that.

A very ridiculously verbose ISO , good grief...

People who tr rogers & prof, why??

I townread Rogers because I townread Doughboy and because he has pushed at weak points for several players, not just the two you mention. Additionally, your slot townread Doughboy and extended a townread to Mister Rogers. I don’t think post style should be included in your reason for finding him scummy, as your slot's previous owner, Saudade, has a pretty distinctive, spammy post style. People play the game differently. I leaned town on profii earlier in the game, but he stopped putting as much effort into scum reading. I haven’t shoved him down to a scum lean or read, but it’s hard to tell what he is.

[Light Ethos]

How have you not seen different play in replaces before?? How can you say this, light?

Again you skip something important. It isn't just that you are playing differently than Saudade did. Your reads are completely the opposite of his strongest reads at the time of replace, without you gaining significantly more information. It doesn't make me any more or less inclined to trust you, but it certainly is disorienting. And no, I have not seen someone replace in and have completely the opposite reads from their slot. That being said, this is my third game. If you're town this game Performer, then you're right to say that your playstyle rubs me the wrong way.

While I'm here, I'll push back against you saying I was more of a leader in both of the two other games we played. I strongly disagree. In my first game on site, RadiantCowbells ran the town completely and wanted to gamesolve. I was more of a leader in the second game on site, but I was the Town Cop and needed to direct pressure to clarify my investigate targets better.

[Light Ethos]

Y a I don't like how he shows up on the TAIL end of that wagon. :shrug:

At the time, I thought it was vote in the next 10 minutes or town has a no lynch Day 1. I was busier last night than I expected to be.

[Light Ethos]

I said that I would post a read list sometime today. This is that time.

Town: Mister Rogers, Almost50, Flavor Leaf, Creature
Town-lean: Performer
Null: Naomi-Tan, profii, Krazy
Scum-lean: GammaEmerald, Sashaddin, Crimson
Scum: the worst

A brief rundown of explanations:

Doughboy

earned a solid checkmark for me. I haven't seen anything scummy about

Mister Rogers

' play after he replaced in, and he has constructively been trying to lead the town.

Almost50

has had some very insightful posts and has been trying to make the most of the limited information available to get a conclusive lynch.

I've said multiple times that if

Flavor Leaf

fooled me, I'll learn a great deal from this game.

I buy the Mason claim

, and I'm disappointed that

Manatee

would self-vote as town confirmed to someone else in the game.

Performer

gets a townlean from me because

Saudade

earned one from me. I really don't like the suggestion of a no-lynch. Beyond having read that it's generally against town's interest to no-lynch, even when I just look at the specific details of this game it seems like a no lynch benefits mafia far more than it benefits town. I said it would take a lot for Performer to lose the credibility that Saudade had given the slot for me, but that post could be the start of that process.

Naomi-Tan

also has insightful posts when she digs into ISOs, but in making her case against me, I find that she intentionally misrepresented some of my posts. I could see her preferential coddling of scum!Sashaddin or town!Sashaddin as town kindness, but I could also see it as an attempt to pocket town!Sashaddin for later. I also don't like that she has largely been outside the conversation for such a long period of time. Life does come up, but I won't mark her as town until I see her return to the effort she put into the earlier stages of the game. She could go either way for me. I haven't done a meta read of her.

profii

had an awkward start to the game with an extended reaction test. I thought that he contributed a great deal to the discussion at the time, but he had slacked off since. Now that some replacements have come in, he's been interacting with content more regularly. I don't have a read here.

Krazy

will be confirmable as a power role claim.

I've commented on

GammaEmerald

before and can provide a link from my ISO if someone needs me to repeat my explanation on that slot. I don't see genuine effort or scumhunting from his slot.
I also don't see it from

Crimson

or from

Sashaddin

.
The least effort I've seen from anyone this game is

the worst

. Manatee, Parrot, and Frank just went inactive. the worst came and outright said that he's just in survival mode Day 1, and he did not make any attempt to look for scum.

[Light Ethos]

@Sashaddin: This is also my first non-Newbie game. Yes it is overwhelming. Nobody expects you, me, or anyone else to have solved the game right now. The criticism is not that you aren't posting large walls in the way that Naomi-Tan does with quotes or in the way that Mister Rogers or I do. The criticism is that you aren't stepping outside your interaction with Saudade to ask questions of other players. You're reacting to other players' reads and shopping for a wagon to stay on. I don't think most people found profii to be scummy at the beginning of the game because he was only posting two words and some emotes. That's because he posted reactions and asked questions even with the limited real estate. Post length isn't the criticism of you. Play style is.

[Light Ethos]

an attempt to pocket town!Sashaddin for later

What does pocket mean in this context?

Mafia!Naomi-Tan wants to be able to gain credibility from town!Sashaddin, so she treats town!Sashaddin gently. Town!Sashaddin appreciates this kind gesture and reciprocates by town-reading her and following her lead throughout the game. Mafia!Naomi-Tan can then guide town!Sashaddin into making some mislynches. Later in the game, she will look like the one who was doing the intentional scum-hunting work because her play style involves a lot of reading and rereading of player ISOs. You will look like the one who is jumping onto a wagon in the way a passive scum player would. She can then decide to drop you at any time.

[Light Ethos]

the players are doing a great job

Is this actually true with respect to most other games you've played? Please don't take my question as an expression that I disagree with you; it's an honest question.

[Light Ethos]

@Nauci: Thank you for working hard to get these slots filled. I really appreciate that you haven't let this game die after we've put so much time into it.

[Light Ethos]

Why does Not_Mafia hammer everyone regardless of alignment?

[Light Ethos]

Also I hardly see someone ever hit L-1 nowadays anyway.

So nobody gets voted out in your games?

[Light Ethos]

Voting the claimed Doc here is exceptionally [adjective redacted for political correctness].

We get some pretty wicked WIFOM to deal with if he lives though. Same with Not_Mafia.

[Light Ethos]

I think it is.

[Light Ethos]

I don't know how to think about what scum would do in this situation. If we vote out someone who isn't a PR claim today, then what happens?
Numbered scenarios are separate options for what happens night 1.

green!NM + green!Crimson: A. They kill Crimson because he's outed. B. They kill Not_Mafia expecting Crimson to protect someone else. C. They leave both of them alive, leaving us with the WIFOM to deal with.
green!NM + red!Crimson: A. They take the guaranteed kill shot onto NM, snuffing out the investigator. B. They kill someone else, leaving us the WIFOM again.
red!NM + green!Crimson: A. They kill the doctor for free. B. They kill someone else for WIFOM.
red!NM + red!Crimson: They kill someone else.

From their play, I don't find either of these players to have wanted to help town much. I've seen more of that from Crimson than from the worst for sure though. I can go either way on whether the worst actually crumbed his role.

I recognize that publicly telling me which one of these is most likely will influence what Mafia decides to do, so I'm not asking for that now.

After the game, I'd really appreciate it if someone who is experienced can tell me which letter is (in general and in the context of this player meta) most likely for each combination of alignment for the worst and Crimson.

[Light Ethos]

However, we do need a lynch and this is where most of us want it to be.

As I said earlier, I would rather have a Crimson hammer than no hammer. There is information to be gained. So this is me posting

intent

. If in the next three hours, another wagon doesn't form, I'm hammering.I do however want to leave time for us to be on the same page with vigs and checks too if that's something this group of players thinks is good to do.

[Light Ethos]

He didn't to my knowledge

[Light Ethos]

I genuinely think what made the wagon on Crimson possible to get through were two things: the mason reveal and Performer's difference in play from Saudade. Saudade was fully in the "No power roles voted out Day 1" camp. Performer bent on that.

[Light Ethos]

Someone hammer so we don’t get a no lynch.

The fact that we’re having this much trouble this close to deadline shows that it’s scum.

We have masons, and someone who was on there before doc claim that went on VLA.

Unless you think the other 3 on the wagon, which I don’t, are scum team, there’s zero reason this should be stalling

This is why there the lynch hasn't happened yet:

If in the next three hours, another wagon doesn't form, I'm hammering.I do however want to leave time for us to be on the same page with vigs and checks too if that's something this group of players thinks is good to do.

What is the plan there? We still have a bit of time, and I'll be around.

@Light: If you look to right before the Masons' claim, you will see that Creature was already clearly the leading favorite for the day's lynch. At that point, it was OBVIOUS that Creature would be lynched.

Yes. I noticed that. FL saved Creature with the mason claim. Either they're scum together, or they're Masons. I believe they're Masons.

[Light Ethos]

You want us to lynch a Mason claim instead of a Doctor claim?? Or are you saying Mafia are pushing the Town one after one?

Please tell me you're asking Mister Rogers and not me.

[Light Ethos]

So does this impasse mean that the plan is to just let the power roles do whatever they all feel like doing?

[Light Ethos]

Fair enough. See you all tomorrow.

UNVOTE: Not_Mafia
VOTE: Crimson97

Spoiler: And that's the Hammer

[Light Ethos]

I am completely lost when it comes to the setup-speculations.
A separate question that I should have asked at the beginning of the game when Parrot posted it: What does negative utility mean? Does it mean a power role that has a downside to it for balance purposes?

[Light Ethos]

Sasha was one of my strongest suspects after the Crimson flip has been confirmed, so while I regret the death of TPR I really really can't blame Krazy for shooting there.

I also say it's very unlikely (from my own PoV) that Rogers is scum. I don't see scum going out of there way to defend Crimson that hard.

This is where I am too on Mister Rogers.

@Rogers: Check tw's read lists (he posted 2 of them). In both he had Sasha as a STRONG TOWN READ. That's not scum!tw. Scum!tw would have gone with the flow, and Sasha was by no means a global TR

I can buy this, but for me that's the same reasoning behind why I read Saudade as town for pushing Sashaddin. The difference between Saudade/Performer and the worst/Not_Mafia is that the first two actually put effort into looking for scum.

[Light Ethos]

Answering your question above, I can't tell the difference between those things without additional information, but as a tiebreaker, I'd value a player who looks to care more about more than themself.
I will buy your meta read and Flavor Leaf's meta read on the worst.

there's always a chance we can set him up as a Serial Killer

This isn't possible in 13 player games.

[Light Ethos]

There becomes a paranoia point later where Creature and FL are unconfirmed and we potentially can’t find scum

I say we ride the Mason claim to the ground and just take the chance that we get beat by a good play. I think it's in our best interest to let that WIFOM play out with us voting away from both of them.

[Light Ethos]

Doc should protect LE actually haha

This is not the move.

[Light Ethos]

Language shapes the world we live in, using the term "wagonomics" cannot go unpunished

Wait, what?

[Light Ethos]

I did the wagonomics on Profii, he isn't scum for his VERY early interactions with the Crimson wagons.

Can you list which interactions brought you to that conclusion?

[Light Ethos]

Learning moment: clearly Flavor Leaf and Mister Rogers saw that this was a crumb:

Green: Naomi mainly because of post 166
Doughboy mainly because of post 129

Null: Flavor

Red: Saudade because I think Doughboy is green and he looks TOO helpful to me.

I'm eagerly waiting for ManateeDude to come back (puppet?)

As for the others, all I can see is a lot of crosstalk that doesn't tell ME anything (it's only my 4th game) but you guys might see it differently.

I hope night 1 will be interesting, I feel blind right now.

I didn't. What made you know that it was a crumb for a power role? What made you know that it was a cop crumb?

For the moment, out of the people that aren't cleared, I'm most comfortable with going for Performer. I leaned town on Saudade, but the results of the flips make his first day look worse. He very well might have been framed that's how bad it is. The following reasoning has been stated by others since the start of Day 2, but I agree with it. His proposed scum team was Sashaddin/Krazy/the worst, and he wasn't willing to budge on Sasha or the worst. He also gave cover for Crimson and the worst by emphatically asserting that we weren't going to vote out any power role claims Day 1. One of them flipped scum. If we can't vote out power role claims, the only alternative is that we shove people to L-1 until we get VT claims, which helps out scum. I also do not see the Mister Rogers vote making sense here from Performer, and I already didn't believe the worst's claim. For me, those are two of the main people in my pool, and Performer has less impact from a backfire than Not_Mafia here.

VOTE: Performer

L-2

[Light Ethos]

@Mister Rogers: Thank you for breaking it down for me. I crumbed differently as cop in a past game.

It’s a bit weird that someone noticed I was messing about with cop references - which got spotted as I was quite blatant about

You spotted a sash crumb which almost no one spotted

But you didn’t say in the PT -

well one of Sash / prof is lying

This is the bit that confused me.

PEDIT: I see Mister Rogers' interpretation. Was he right in saying that's what you meant?

[Light Ethos]

Mister Rogers still needs to be policy lynched

Why?

[Light Ethos]

Did you teach Saudade how to play? It's like he never left.

[Light Ethos]

Why is Naomi town again?

Probably given a pass for her agressive early scum hunting. I also think Flavor Leaf, Krazy, and Sashaddin seemed like the most likely partners for her. 2 have been flipped green, and FL is a mason claim.

[Light Ethos]

@Performer: Is there meaning behind those colors in 3432?

[Light Ethos]

For those who are into setup speculations: what would it take for this setup to be balanced for 4 scum?

[Light Ethos]

Why... would you do that Flavor Leaf?!

[Light Ethos]

Why wouldn’t your reaction be “wtf lynch all liars”

Mine would be, but I'm not experienced enough to know if that's how things generally go.

Not_Mafia claims to have gotten no result. Other than being role blocked, what else would return no result?

[Light Ethos]

Btw, on N1 I blocked Sasha (since I was very suspicious of him and no one else was, so I deduced he might be the one to do the NK).

This is abjectly false. Saudade wanted Sashaddin dead Day 1 and spammed the thread calling for his head. I also didn't trust Sashaddin.

[Light Ethos]

Because N_M is alive and being set for a mislynch. Shooting N_M would have been fine for them, but shooting FL gets them rid of a strong townie who was never going to get lynched anyway and makes it possible for them to lynch N_M instead of shooting him. Now why would they want N_M flipped today if it wasn't to confirm his one and only result?

All I get from this is that it's highly unlikely that both town!Not_Mafia and scum!Almost50 exist.
Scum!Almost50 would take this opportunity to protect scum!Not_Mafia by giving him cover to take an extra day before providing a mislynch target to town.
TownRoleblocker!Almost50's logic is already presented in the thread, but it would equally buy additional time for scum!Not_Mafia and would clear suspicion for town!Not_Mafia.


The main issue I have with your reasoning is that even if I completely trust your Town Roleblocker claim and even if Not_Mafia isn't fake claiming, Not_Mafia could still be a scum Gunsmith. He claims to have randomly selected a target Night 1. I don't think choosing a completely random target makes sense in this particular game. That slot has done nothing to contribute to game solving. I don't see town motivation anywhere from either player. It seems very WIFOM at best for you to assert that he's town solely on the basis of him receiving votes at the beginning of the Day.

[Light Ethos]

HOWEVER, scum would NOT shoot FL in that case. It really really doesn't benefit Scum!Creature to shoot the guy he's claiming Masons with. If Creature was EVER flipped FL was a guaranteed mislynch.

Going to have to disagree with you here.

Facts:
Town had pretty solid consensus that we were going to leave Flavor Leaf and Creature alive until the end of the game untouched by investigations and were willing to risk that both of them turned out to be the scum team with Crimson. In comparison to Creature, Flavor Leaf was pretty focused on game solving Day 2 and showed that he had the capacity to algorithmically evaluate optimal progressions for the following days. Flavor Leaf was under zero threat of death from town, as the only Vig claim was dead.

Analysis:
Flavor Leaf bought himself the chance to sit back and solve the game with impunity, and it is absolutely possible that he would find scum!Creature's partner.
Flavor Leaf didn't have the chance to talk about his fake Mason claim in the way that he discussed his fake Vig claim. It very well could have been an attempt to secure a better Day 1 kill that better aligned with his reads that eventually became an extended reaction test of Creature. I don't know that Flavor Leaf genuinely townread Creature, as he was already locked into defending that slot by way of how he defended Manatee when he was inactive.

Conclusion:

I don't find it valid to assume that a scum team with Creature on it wouldn't be greedy and take out someone who is active, creative, unpredictable, and truly capable of piecing the picture together.

[Light Ethos]

A general question: What locks Creature as town? I don't see it.

@Almost50: Do you have any reasons to town read GammaEmerald that do not refer to profii? I'll summarize what I think your case against me is, and can you tell me if I'm misunderstanding you? Not_Mafia got a no gun check on me, and because Crimson97 claimed Doctor and because I was the hammer vote on Crimson, that means that I must be a scum Doctor? Something that doesn't show up in the vote count from Day 1 but does show up in my ISO is that I have not trusted Crimson at any point in this game, and I did not buy either the worst's claim or Crimson's claim. I voted for Sashaddin because out of the players who had not claimed, I trusted him the least. However, my two biggest scum reads Day 1 were the worst and Crimson.
@Creature: Referring to your comment in 3644, can you explain why it is bad?
@Both Almost50 and profii: How do you want us to evaluate the choice between the two of you that you set up?

Other than myself, there are 7 players in the game. That means that there are 28 possible scum teams. I have Mister Rogers as town. I've seen nothing but scumhunting from that slot from the start of the game. Even in looking at the 6 other possible scum partners he could have, I don't think any are likely.

Elminating Mister Rogers leaves me with 6 players to consider: GammaEmerald, Naomi-Tan (using her because Akarin hasn't done too much yet), profii, Almost50, Not_Mafia, and Creature. This leaves 15 possible scum teams.
I'm also heavily leaning town on Naomi-Tan, but Naomi-Tan/Not_Mafia and Naomi-Tan/Almost50 are possible.

In looking at the combinations laid out on a sheet of paper, several things stand out to me.

I buy that Not_Mafia is a gunsmith now. (The only likely way that he could not be a gunsmith is if he is on a scum team with Almost50.) Do I trust Not_Mafia to be a town gunsmith and not a scum gunsmith?
Do I trust Almost50 to be a town roleblocker and not a scum roleblocker?
Do I trust Creature despite seeing a lack of analysis throughout the slot's existence?

I'm still processing answers to these questions.

Post 3681 really threw a wrench in my thought process. Between Almost50 and profii, Almost50 looked much closer to town than profii did to me. However, Almost50's case against me wouldn't even make sense to me if I were reading it as someone else. It reads like it's coming from someone who just wants to push a kill through today, and that isn't a town mindset with over a week left in the Day.

[Light Ethos]

I have Mister Rogers as town.

Of course you do

There is a lot more to my post than what you just quoted, including direct questions addressed to you. I don't appreciate the glibness.

[Light Ethos]

There is a lot of twisting words and faking obtuse in your post (the same way Rogers is doing it) that I really don't care to respond.

Like; you boiling down my case on you to

Not_Mafia got a no gun check on me, and because Crimson97 claimed Doctor and because I was the hammer vote on Crimson, that means that I must be a scum Doctor?

isn't even worth responding to. I did a VCA. I showed you were on his Crimson's first wagon. I noted he got angry and asked to replace-out because of the bus. The 6th vote on him was Rogers' slot. He then retracted the replace-out request and fake claimed Doctor, and from then on Rogers decided to defend him to eternity, while you only hammered him when it was obvious no one else would be lynched. All that and you tell me it's just because you hammered that I think you're scum?

Go back and reread the case on you (and Rogers), and when you think you have real questions with substance then I would be willing to answer them.

"Never trusting" someone is one thing, and pushing for their lynch is totally another. Scum shade each other for distancing all the time, but when push comes to shove they'd find a way to not vote them for the lynch. The only exception is when they realize their p is going down anyway, and then they try to ride the wagon for Town credit.

Also you're parroting Rogers about my claim which I have debated for at least 3 times already. WHY would scum!Me claim today AT ALL? I'm either scum

with

N_M, in which case I wouldn't have blocked him, so we're both faking, when it was much much easier to just say he checked the already flipped VT

as he said he would

, and I would have stayed very much above all suspicion. OR I'm scum RB and he's a Town GS and then I blocked him and would still have to keep quiet about it while I was globally TR'd.

And if you argue I am afraid of losing my p then you really need to ask someone in the know about my scum game. (Or go check my play in my scum games I have linked on my wiki page).

Now the last possibility is I'm indeed Town and he is a scum GS. WHY THE FREAK does he say he picked you at random on N1? Like, N_M isn't being globally TR'd to start with (and he knows it), so why would he pour more gas on his own flame? Like N_M is a troll not a fool. he knows how to play the game well, but he opts to play it in a light groovy manner most don't understand until they've played him enough.

Finally, I do have a tell on N_M. I will not expose it, but it almost always works. This is not his scum game. It was not tw's scum game either. And frankly I would rather lose to scum!N_M than mislynch Town!N_M 11 times out of 10.

And you're telling me your top TR is the guy who stood firm against lynching scum!Crimson on D1?? Get out of here.

That's an unnecessary amount of vitriol to direct at someone.
Several things:
1. If Not_Mafia actually is just a troll as you say he is, then it would be in his best interest to continue to play as a troll in this game too even if he's scum. If he expects people to come to his defense as you are, saying that he's just a troll, then there would be no reason for him not to troll, regardless of alignment. I don't think he just gets to be townread for not giving a fuck about the game.
2. I'm not parroting Rogers about your claim. It's not difficult to list all four possibilities and to think about them individually.
3. Your argument as to why you're town seems to hinge on your assertion that town you would never claim today as scum. If you claim today as scum, you can get yourself town cred if we buy it. From my perspective, you would most likely do this if you were partners with Not_Mafia, leading to 4:

4. I disagree with you when you say that you and Not_Mafia would play this Day out the way you have. It would be a risky play for sure, but if it works, it gains you a guaranteed mislynch today, meaning that you both just have to survive tomorrow, and you win. That's perfect for you because you set up a nice WIFOM for us. If we believe scum!Not_Mafia tomorrow, then we lose. If I were on a scum team with Not_Mafia, this is the type of play that I would try in this situation. Compare this to what happens if he claims to have checked Flavor Leaf. Checking FL does not do anything to ease our suspicions of NM.

5. I can only vote for 1 of my scum leans at a time. I had 3 scum leans for the vast majority of Day 1. You are penalizing me for hammering Crimson near the deadline, which is frankly ridiculous. I'm not asking for a town read for hammering Crimson, but it doesn't make sense to scum read me for it either. If I were scum, I could have been like Rogers or Gamma and obstinately kept my vote elsewhere. With the amount of sparsely active players this game, a no lynch was possible. But you claim to have done a full VCA, leading to 6:
6. Your case against me is entirely dependent on me being partners with Rogers. It completely falls apart with a Rogers town flip.
7. If I'm playing this game as a scum Doctor on a scum team with Crimson in a game with a town gunsmith, then when Crimson rage quits and returns making that doctor claim, I would counterclaim Doctor and bus him. Gunsmith gets a green check on me later if he decides to do it, and I get town cred for it. Crimson's play wasn't defensible this game, so bussing him is fine there.

Regardless, I'll lean toward your roleblocker claim coming from town!Almost50.

I stand by what I wrote in point 4, but I also acknowledge that if I'm a town roleblocker in this game, I would do exactly what you did for the exact reason that you listed. Just like if Flavor Leaf had been on a scum team with Creature, I'm alright with getting beat by this play of yours if you're scum. My only other strike against you is your case against me.
People can be wrong about their reads. Your read on me is overlooking a pretty glaring townslip of mine, but I'll let it go. I'm definitely not the easiest mislynch for you to push today, so I'll take your case as a genuine attempt to find scum that reached the wrong conclusion.

Is there more than process of elimination as to why you're listing Creature and GammaEmerald as town?

Between profii and Almost50, I lean toward scum!profii.
When I eliminate my town leans, my scum pool contains Not_Mafia, GammaEmerald, profii, and Creature.

I have liked literally nothing that the worst or Not_Mafia have done this game, and I've had two players (Flavor Leaf and Almost50) defend each of them on account of meta reads. If that slot is town, it has not done anything to help. Neither player has participated in the effort of game solving, Not_Mafia's first check is mostly being considered as a scum doctor check, and Not_Mafia's second check was nullified. Not_Mafia could be paired with any of those players in the pool.

So teams I'm considering most at the moment: profii/Not_Mafia, profii/Creature, GE/Not_Mafia, GE/Creature, and Creature/Not_Mafia.
I eliminated profii/Gamma because of profii's push against Gamma.

The problem with deciding which of these is most likely is that both the worst and Not_Mafia didn't put effort into the game.

[Light Ethos]

You need to decide for yourself where you are going imo - processing is fine but I’m not going to do the work for you. Your call.

Yup. Thinking about this. It will require me to reread a lot the thread which will take some time.

[Light Ethos]

@LE why do you have so few townleans rn?

A combination of things. Day 1 was an absolute mess of a Day. PerniciousParrot, Manatee Dude, and FrankJaeger were AWOL for the bulk of it, and all 3 of those slots are still in the game. the worst didn't care about anything other than surviving Day 1. Not_Mafia replaced in and has been unhelpful. I don't have an easy time reading profii this game.

[Light Ethos]

I'm actually interested to hear why you have a strong town lean on Rogers

Sure. Doughboy earned a solid green from his play. I took the same opinion as him on Krazy asking him if he's a power role in the Neighbor thread. He seemed to be scum hunting the entire time. This is a game where it would be acceptable to slouch as scum on a replace in. Way too much reading for Day 1. Rogers has poured himself in the effort of finding scum since he got here. Has he always been right? No. Has anyone this game? I don't think so.

I don't agree with everything he says, but what he says has often made sense to me.

[Light Ethos]

I managed to cruise for 5 game days winning the game single handedly, because most players thought I wouldn't claim an existing Mafia role).

If you claim today as scum, you can get yourself town cred if we buy it.

N_M does NOT have to be scum here.

You are right. NM doesn't have to be scum in the case that Almost50 is scum, but like I said, I find it highly unlikely that he wouldn't be. Almost50 constrains his options moving forward if he's scum and if NM is town. He runs the risk of getting checked (or his partner) the longer NM lives. It basically forces a night kill on NM. At which point, it probably would have been easier to just not claim. I don't know that if he loses his partner, he keeps the town read he earned from this claim.

Naomi-Tan is the only player that would make sense to me as a partner for Almost50 if NM is town. She has been a town read for just about everyone, and even if A50 we're to die at a later point, he would be relatively certain that his partner would make it to the final 3 with a town read.

Something I don't like about NT's play is that she was fine with shoving Crimson and me while not feeling much need to hear from Frank, Parrot, or Manatee. She also stopped critical analysis of the thread well before most of the replacements came in. I don't know if it's that hard to bus a scum buddy who is struggling (Crimson), pin a town player (me) to that scum player, pocket another new town player (Sashaddin), and peace out of the thread. I'm still leaning town on her, but these things really don't sit well with me.

[Light Ethos]

If I'm playing this game as a scum Doctor on a scum team with Crimson in a game with a town gunsmith, then when Crimson rage quits and returns making that doctor claim, I would counterclaim Doctor and bus him. Gunsmith gets a green check on me later if he decides to do it, and I get town cred for it. Crimson's play wasn't defensible this game, so bussing him is fine there.

And how are you going to explain your survival to LyLo?

I don't see how what you quoted correlates with your question. Can you explain the link?
Additionally, how is your question a helpful question to ask? We're only in LyLo tomorrow if we mislynch today. That's a bridge I'll cross if we mislynch and I'm not night killed.
The two scum night kills were more or less dictated by the town power role claims. Krazy claimed something confirmable, so scum killed Krazy night one. Either town!Not_Mafia or one of the confirmed town Mason claims were the only reasonable choices for last night's kill. I don't know what scum's night kill strategy will be from here on out, and I also don't think it's a valuable use of time to speculate on it.

[Light Ethos]

Let's assume you're Town. Who is scum?

I don't know who is scum. I gave a pool earlier. I'll buy your claim. I buy Mister Rogers' town Neighbor claim. I'll still lean town on Naomi.

I gave you my pool of four players if I take all of my townleans into account: profii, GammaEmerald, Creature, Not_Mafia.

You and I have a difference in how we've read this game. You read Creature as town and Not_Mafia as town based on meta reasons. If I eliminate them from my pool now, that means that by process of elimination, profii and GammaEmerald must be the scum team. I don't think that's a very likely situation here, as profii was trying to shove GammaEmerald earlier.

[Light Ethos]

How is it possible to understand and misunderstand how gunsmith + mafia doctor works in the same post?

Where did I show a misunderstanding of how it works?

[Light Ethos]

I don't see how what you quoted correlates with your question. Can you explain the link?

You said you would CC, meaning you would claim Town Doctor. Town Doctor is a role likely to attract the scum NK, and -since it is a protective role itself- it is unlikely there will be yet another protective that justifies you not being NK'd several nights into the game.

My approach would definitely depend on whether my partner got found or not and also who my partner would be. At the worst case, it becomes a WIFOM like the one scum put me into during my first game on this site. RadiantCowbells was in full gamesolve mode from the start and was paranoid of getting night killed. I replaced into a VT slot that was generally a null to scumlean read from most players. Final 3 was me, a guy who replaced in for someone who site flaked, and RadiantCowbells. That LyLo situation seems similar to what you set up. Regardless, the extended hypothetical is not what happened this game.

[Light Ethos]

I said if he decides to do it. That isn't what I would do in that situation, but I also wouldn't ever just pick someone at random like Not_Mafia claimed to have.

[Light Ethos]

Where? Explain.

[Light Ethos]

Am I the only one who read Not_Mafia's gunsmith targeting of claimed masons as sarcasm?

I didn't read it that way. We can ask him.

[Light Ethos]

I feel like counterclaiming your own buddy feels a bit gratuitous of an idea there

His claim wasn't believable. I didn't buy either the worst's claim or Crimsons.

[Light Ethos]

Am I the only one who read Not_Mafia's gunsmith targeting of claimed masons as sarcasm?

I didn't read it that way. We can ask him.

What if the answer is sarcastic?

I don't think it makes a difference. You said it's driving you crazy that people took him seriously. It's irrelevant at this point to me.

[Light Ethos]

No one was asking LE what scum LE would have done, but Almost50 had just done something like that and came across towny for doing so.

Almost50 was asserting that I am a scum Doctor. I presented what I would have done if I were actually a scum Doctor.

[Light Ethos]

RadiantCowbells was town that game actually. Both of us lost, but RC was the one who cast the wrong vote. Formerfish was the other scum. IIRC it was his idea to leave RC alive.

[Light Ethos]

Brief flurry of votes, then they dissipated in all the setup spec confusion and no comment, feels a bit squirrely to me, but not as much as
VOTE: Light Ethos

Here we go

[Light Ethos]

Ok I am scik of this.

I'm not a VT, but my role is only as valuable as the trust I have in the game.

Now either this was BS and you are scum or its not and About is scum, so which is it?

Why are you certain that both aren't possible?

[Light Ethos]

It wasn't BS, but I don't think it invalidates Almost50's claim either.

[Light Ethos]

Sure. I'm a Town Two-Shot Bulletproof. I was hoping to bait out a night kill at some point with 1051, but Flavor Leaf's fake claims prevented that from happening.

[Light Ethos]

This is my first Normal game, so those who have more experience can correct me if I'm wrong. I don't think my role invalidates Almost50's town roleblocker claim. With Sashaddin and Krazy, we've seen two places where a town roleblocker could unintentionally set town back. With the Vig and Cop alternating even and odd, if the roleblocker hits him at the wrong time, that's a big blow.

[Light Ethos]

Because I'm not full, and I'm not 1-shot. I don't have a reason to lie to you here.

[Light Ethos]

VOTE: Gamma Emerald

I looked into what Akarin said earlier, saying that it drove her crazy that people took Not_Mafia seriously when he said he would check Flavor Leaf.
In going through the ISOs of the people outside my town leans, I found this:

Idea:
If we let NM live he has to agree to check one of (FL, Creature). I don’t see any way this doesn’t confirm the alignments of FL and Creature.

I didn't like the idea of wasting a check on a Mason claim that would be resolved anyway if either of them flipped. This seems like it was an effort to waste one of the checks.

If I'm expected to believe that Not_Mafia is a town gunsmith and not a scum gunsmith

, this post by Gamma Emerald might prove to be an important detail.

And then when you look through the slot's history, we see Parrot entering the thread and immediately asking for claims. Eventually, he disappears. Gamma Emerald arrives, gets into a back and forth with Mister Rogers about why not reading the thread is fine. We don't see any casing with his votes. We don't see much analysis. We see someone who is content to sit back and float through. The only response he gives to support his complacency is that his scum game doesn't hinge on coasting. I don't think coasting through this game helps town out at all.

[Light Ethos]

Is this still about wagonomics?

[Light Ethos]

For clarification, my claim was a full claim. Akarin's order is fine with me.

[Light Ethos]

@Akarin: How did you get from here:

What are the odds Crimson is getting double bussed in VC 1.11?
Townflips on Krazy, Sashadin, Flavor, Saudade

So my lynch pool for the day is:
Gamma
Almost50
Not_Mafia

That's where I'll focus reading anything.

Both scum not bussing seems possible, which makes odds even better, but seems super duper unlikely both other scum were bussing at that point.

Anything wrong with this logic I'm missing by not reading 138 pages?

to here:

can someone verify I've not made a mess of that

You've made a mess of it in that you're tying yourself in mental knots convolutedly reestablishing things that don't help. Town RB should always target their best or 2nd best scumread, and if Almost50 is town RB scum are likely to send the scum less suspected by Almost50 to perform the kill. This is true, but it doesn't help anything.

My lynchpool is Rogers, Gamma, Profii at this point,

so we agree on that, but I don't think any reasoning coming from trying to predict the NK gets you there.

[Light Ethos]

Also, your vote on me was outside your pool. Can you explain why you voted outside your pool?

[Light Ethos]

Something has moved Akarin on those 2 slots there- I’d be eager to hear what

Why don't you guess what could have changed my desire to lynch Almost50 and Not_Mafia between those two posts. Like seriously, how is this a mystery to you?

I want your words. There is no reason for you to be evasive here, especially after deciding to vote someone for your perception of them being squirrelly.

[Light Ethos]

So it looks to me like profii just kind of latched onto what LE was saying without thinking about it, and a little bit stronger.

I agree with this. I still want you to comment on my question.

[Light Ethos]

Like this is so jaw-droppingly obvious I'm having a bit of trouble figuring out why you'd even ask

I ask because I want your words instead of having to put them in your mouth. Why couldn't you just answer the question in the first place?
I'll go further and say that your condescending 3812 doesn't even fully answer the question.

Before that, you had Not_Mafia in your pool. After Not_Mafia claims roleblocked, he's suddenly not in your pool anymore. There are still valid reasons why he could still be in your pool. Why are you convinced that Not_Mafia isn't a Mafia Gunsmith, and why are you convinced that Almost50 is a town roleblocker?

The information you posted as your reasoning for dropping them from your pool isn't sufficient to answer those questions, but you needed to have answered those questions for yourself before you could drop them from the pool.

[Light Ethos]

Why was NT town again?

I didn't trust her in the beginning of the game for how she reached for a case against me and for how it seemed that she was pocketing Sashaddin. People town locked her for aggressively pushing Crimson initially. I don't have that slot locked, but I still lean town on her.

[Light Ethos]

Can we get some concrete reads from Creature and from Not_Mafia?

[Light Ethos]

Not_Mafia's slot probably has the worst ISO in the game, but it gets a pass by being a power role. I don't see how a scum gunsmith would have played this game differently.

[Light Ethos]

If we no lynch, the first vote cast in the wrong place means the game ends, but we have one less chance to go the wrong way.

[Light Ethos]

Either way, we need to be right for the entire rest of the way through.

[Light Ethos]

I'm still stuck on thinking about whether NL is the best option here to be honest. Can you explain your NL vote?

[Light Ethos]

You're right that the odds are better, but I don't know if I like being put in the position where all three town players have to be on exactly the same page before voting. I think we're in an awful spot here either way.

[Light Ethos]

Today, one town player can cast a vote in the wrong place without scum being able to gang up and quick hammer for the win. You're right that town that town has to be on the same page in the end either way, but if we NL, no votes can be cast by town on another town player tomorrow.

[Light Ethos]

I don't have faith that we'll get the right person today.

[Light Ethos]

Krazy did you ever explain why you asked Dougboy if he was a PR.

@Rogers: it was a long time ago, but if I recall correctly, this post made me think he was in the neighborhood too. I read it as him asking if Krazy had publicly posted something that already was privately posted. Obviously I was wrong, but that's what I thought it was.

[Light Ethos]

@LE: What is your read on Naomi Tan?

I think Naomi-Tan was town. I don't see her vote on Crimson as a distancing vote. There was a lot that I didn't like in our back and forth, but she went through a lot of effort to get Crimson to be the Day 1.

[Light Ethos]

PEDIT: Oh sorry, I thought we were policy lynching me on the advice of Fatboy

wrong answer.

Obviously with 2 votes on yourself, 2x scum could make it 4 and likely win the game with the night kill.

I was hoping you would say with 2 votes on you that you were suggesting N_M is scum therefore the cross vote meant scum couldn't rush and we should vote N_M

Or you were going to say you were watching the thread ready to unvote if anyone made a move - but I would have queried how you did that for such an extended period.

But that's just waffle and you're probably scum...I still think No lynch is the way to go today, but then I think N_M has to check Creature or Akarin tonight to make tomorrow as hard as possible for scum

This logic makes sense to me. There was a wide window where the scum team could snatch the win here. I also don't think scum!profii takes this approach here unless he's with scum!NM.

We already know that Akarin/Creature isn't the team. (Or at least I don't think that it is.)

[Light Ethos]

Ending the day right now is not smart.

I have found obvscum

and I think its important to discuss it before the end of the day as well as possible partners. THAT will make it harder on the scum.

??? If it's obvious, you probably wouldn't have needed to continually promise to post a genuine PoE. You also probably would have said who it is.

[Light Ethos]

So the game has stalled.

@Mister Rogers: I do agree with profii's logic here. The window to hammer you was a pretty wide one. Sure, there have been many lapses of inactivity this game, but casting the second vote on yourself and leaving it there for hours isn't something a town player should do in this situation. You would need to fully believe that Not_Mafia is scum to comfortably trust doing that as town. Even worse, you had to be prompted to take your vote off of yourself. That shows that this line of reasoning wasn't even on your mind.

If you've found obvscum, state your case. If not, we're pushing this to Day 5.

[Light Ethos]

I don't think it does.

[Light Ethos]

Because Fred Rogers is my childhood hero.

[Light Ethos]

NiceMeme.jpg

[Light Ethos]

@Not_Mafia: What was your result?
@Mister Rogers: Do you have that case?

[Light Ethos]

Why did you check someone you've already checked?

[Light Ethos]

What does it say then?

[Light Ethos]

He's scum?

[Light Ethos]

I don't understand what you were implying when you said there aren't many ways to interpret it.

[Light Ethos]

Another replacement incoming

[Light Ethos]

profii: What were you implying about Not_Mafia checking the same person twice?

[Light Ethos]

He hasn't come back to the site in the last week.

[Light Ethos]

Redirection is explicitly not Normal just like post restrictions.

[Light Ethos]

This is frustrating.

[Light Ethos]

Isn't that only helpful if Not_Mafia is town and doesn't die?

[Light Ethos]

When I say may or may not have a result - probably better to say “may or may not have a guilty on someone”

This is the same as may or may not have a result. I still think what I asked is valid. Isn't this only helpful if Not_Mafia is town and doesn't die?

[Light Ethos]

if he dies tonight, we know his results are trustable or not - we can go from there

We don't know his result from today.

[Light Ethos]

A Traitor is considered Normal on mafiascum.net, as long as it:

• is Mafia-aligned
  
• knows the identities of all of the Mafia team
  
• identity is not known by the Mafia team, although they should know a Traitor exists
  
• cannot be recruited to join the rest of the Mafia team, and (unless Bulletproof) is killed if shot
  
• is endgamed if all other Mafia are dead
  
• gives a "guilty" result to Cops, an
  "innocent" result to Gunsmiths
  , and a "Traitor" result to Role Cops

Most likely explanation for the no kill: Rogers is scum, 3rd scum is a traitor.

This is reasonable.

[Light Ethos]

Either way, why are we stretching the day out?

I keep hoping that Not_Mafia will give his result.

VOTE: no lynch

[Light Ethos]

As far as your vote, Akarin, it's probably better tomorrow than today. I know you said that your mind is made up either way, but who knows what can happen.

[Light Ethos]

I think waiting on N_M is as anti-town as refusing to claim. He's made it clear he isn't going to be clear.

Why?

[Light Ethos]

UNVOTE:

[Light Ethos]

LE, did you use a BP shot last night?

Bulletproof players don't get informed when they get shot.

[Light Ethos]

So you aren’t x shot bullet proof or have to choose when you activate? You just die or you don’t?

2 shots. I don't activate it. If I get shot three times, I die.

[Light Ethos]

It's Senor Rodrigues and Akarin ZzzzZzzzzZZZZzzz

Result

Result

[Light Ethos]

LE and Akarin if you were forced to vote today rather than no lynch, what’s your preference

I don't think that's a wise question to answer.

[Light Ethos]

The point is at what point do we give up on N_M

Forever ago

I gave up on that slot on Day 1.

[Light Ethos]

Ayyyy it's Alonzo! Awesome. About your last post: one of the problems I've had with this game is that Akarin could reasonably be scum with anyone but profii or me.

[Light Ethos]

VOTE: no lynch not again

[Light Ethos]

We're in the same situation tomorrow even if we get the right person today. I don't see how this is the low road.

[Light Ethos]

Result

[Light Ethos]

Not_Mafia

[Light Ethos]

Not_Mafia's continued life in this game is a frustrating WIFOM to deal with.

[Light Ethos]

Click the heels together too?

[Light Ethos]

It's been 21 days since it was a good idea to say anything productive, that's on everybody.

No. It's on Not_Mafia. He has been trolling us by wasting time. We are in MyLo with a claimed Gunsmith, and nobody has died for a few days. One of these things is happening:

1. Not_Mafia is scum and has been trolling us for days, needlessly wasting our time when if he directs us to a mislynch, we lose.
2. Not_Mafia is town, and scum has been purposefully burning through my bulletproof charges the past few days.
3. Not_Mafia is town, and scum has failed two kills.
4. Not_Mafia is town, and scum has elected to no kill to increase the chances of a mislynch in MyLo.

4 is implausible to me. I'm leaning toward accepting that there is a scum doctor this game and that Not_Mafia is town to explain why he's still alive. If this truly is scum!Not_Mafia, this game was a great way to earn some lasting ill will from the other players in the game for dragging it out this long for no good reason.
Of the four possibilities I listed, I think 2 would make the most sense.

So here's my problem: considering all of these cases, Not_Mafia still continues to troll. I find it highly unlikely that both of the remaining scum players are undetectable to Not_Mafia. This game would go so much more quickly if he would simply give his night results at the beginning of the day instead of trolling it out.

[Light Ethos]

He's bound to his vote, He's clearly NOT the gunsmith here.. WMDYW?

I also want to know why you say this.

[Light Ethos]

The point is he hasn’t actually said that, he is just continuing his troll stance on waganomics

Nope I clearly did say that

Are you voting Alonzo for anything other than Mister Rogers' wagonomics statement? If so, please explain.