Mini Normal 2035 : Duck Mafia Part 1 : GAME OVER
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Completly Trustworthy Goon
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Completly Trustworthy Goon
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Sorry, I haven't been posting, some real life issues came up.
I don't like Nonny's 50, It's odd they immediately think Reundo wants to lynch them with a lot of time left to talk. That conclusion doesn't feel natural, especially since Nonny doesn't really follow up on her accusation. That seems like early distancing to me.
VOTE: Nonny-
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Completly Trustworthy Goon
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Completly Trustworthy Goon
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Tchill, why did you vote me, I don't think you've explained?
Something just feels off about profli to me. He initially came out of the gate trying to direct the town into voting Nonny and constantly gave advice as to what the town should do, then he just started asking others where his vote should be placed. Also, 69 seems very odd to me as well.
VOTE: profli
Dave is my greatest townread at this moment, his playstyle this game seems to match up with his towngame.
I also have a favorable opinion of Reundo now, I've liked his logic and thought process so far.-
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Completly Trustworthy Goon
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I like Nonny's explanation of why they made the "lynch happy" comment in 84 Reundo. I still don't feel that well about her though, especially with the follow up vote on Profii literally one post after I did with similar reasons to other people who voted him in 147. If I change my mind about Profii, I'll probably go back to voting her.
The reason I thought that Profii''s comments were weird is because he said there should be a counterwagon in 111, then didn't vote anyone until Gamma asked him to despite saying he found both Tiphaine and Carcallily suspicious in 140 and 143. He also said he would vote Davesaz if he didn't see his point in 117, but didn't despite Dave only continuing to push him in 125. I felt like he was appeasing Gamma by voting who he wanted, especially since he had not talked about Tiphiane at all before that post.
I don't agree with the people voting Carcallily, I've seen people do supposedly anti-town things before while ending up having a perfectly good reason to have behaved that way. I have a suspicion as to why she made those posts, but will not say what it is for now.-
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Completly Trustworthy Goon
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Completly Trustworthy Goon
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Whats your read on me Carcalilly?
Profii, can you respond to the points I made against you in 161? I would like to understand your thought process better.
Davesaz, I don't exactly think you were continuing the same angle, but you didn't admit you made a misrep to him, which he wanted you to do. I felt like continuing to push him in a different way should have provoked a response but didn't.-
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Completly Trustworthy Goon
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Completly Trustworthy Goon
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VOTE: UnaBombaH
Una has given no real reads or made any pushes, the only posts with much content are 292 and 293, which seem like fence sitting to me. It seems odd that despite talking about how Boon's behavior bothers him, he says that nobody should think he believes that Boon is probably scum instead of null. It almost seems as if he doesn't want to come off as accusing him.
Tchill, I was going to unvote Profii. I was in the process of deciding who I was going to vote for next(I didn't like the Tiphiane wagon) when Leaf quickhammered.-
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I don't feel like the people on my wagon are really giving any reasons for voting me. Tchill said it was because I was voting Profii at the end of day 1, but I covered that in 302. Una admitted they made an OMGUS vote. Gamma Emerald didn't mention me until 360. Flavor Leaf's was better, but it came after voting for FA and pushing someone who wasn't on the Profii wagon. Wanting to lynch people on the Profii wagon could have been an excuse to vote for me. I would like more insight into why they are so suspicious of me. Based on how quickly this wagon took off, at least one person on it is probably scum.-
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Completly Trustworthy Goon
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Completly Trustworthy Goon
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Completly Trustworthy Goon
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I still feel like Flavor Leaf deciding to vote me because I was on the Profii wagon was a little suspicious, but he's claiming a PR. Therefore; its best to let the scum team sort out his alignment. They won't let him run unchecked. Tchill I personally townread at this point. He came out with a lot of opinions and content day 1. The votes against me and Tiphaine are probably NAI because he probably wouldn't have made 203 if people in this game have played with him before and know how he likes to play. He was also one of the first people to express suspicion of me and was consistent in that, he didn't seem to just sheep popular opinion. I would like a better case from him though. Gamma's vote for me was extremely sudden as I said, I would like to know why he suspects me since he has experience playing with me before. I've liked the rest of his game so far due to meta experience and his relative abundance of content compared to other posters. Una is the most suspicious of the four voting so far, but I think that he may seem so suspicious to me because I don't have experience with his playstyle and most of his reads are based off of meta which I don't fully understand due to my lack of experience with many of this game's players. In light of their recent posts, I'd put Una as being mostly null with a slight scum lean. Right now I'd be willing to lynch Una, Wilky, Nonny, or FA.-
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Completly Trustworthy Goon
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Completly Trustworthy Goon
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Completly Trustworthy Goon
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Tchill, what do you think of FA? They only have thirteen posts, so they have been mostly lurking this game. How does that affect your opinion of him? You said you liked some of his posts in 306 and didn't understand why people were voting him in 396. You've also stated he worries you in 440. Would you describe your overall read of him as a townread or scumread? If Carca is lynched, would you be okay with him being killed?-
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Completly Trustworthy Goon
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Completly Trustworthy Goon
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On second thought, I don't really think that lynching Carca is a good decision. There are probably 8 townies and 3 mafia assuming a 10:3 setup. Lynching Carca creates a scenario where killing a townie results in mylo if the night kill succeeds. There will probably be seven townies and 3 mafia if Carca is lynched, so the risk of that scenario is 70%. Its a better move for everyone to say who they would prefer Carca to vengekill and then to lynch whoever is suspected the most.-
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Completly Trustworthy Goon
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Alright, I have a theory on what the scumteam is. I'll make my case tomorrow when it isn't so late.
Also, the mafia team probably has a ninja and an investigative role because Gamma didn't see anyone visiting Profii on N1 and can't see why he would be killed over other options. Flavor, can you fully claim?-
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Completly Trustworthy Goon
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I currently believe the scum team consists of Nonny/FA/someone from my wagon. I feel that FA has been mostly coasting since they've only really given reads in posts 202, 303, and 462. Twice he did that because someone asked him for reads and third time was suspicious for reasons noted earlier. They have also never mentioned or gone after Nonny, despite how suspicious she's been this game to various people. Nonny has also been suspicious to me this entire game for scummy posts like 50, 147, 232, 283, 420, 499, and 518. I don't get their FA read, they said they understood why people were suspicious against him and admitted Gamma made a fair point in 322, but still said they couldn't see him as scum. I believe the third member of the scumteam is probably someone on my wagon because it formed easily and fairly quick, meaning scum were probably on it.
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Completly Trustworthy Goon
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Unabombah, you appear to have a suspicion as to what the scumteam is, can you elaborate on that theory? Also, I'm not voting anyone yet because if I'm wrong and the person I vote is town, it only takes one more townie to vote them for a scumteam of 3 to get a chance to win the game through a quickhammer. I would prefer us to debate until a consensus is reached on the best lynch.-
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Completly Trustworthy Goon
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I have a confession to make Unabombah. I'm a vanilla townie, not a PR. I'm admitting this now because I feel like its unlikely I'll be nightkilled soon and the chance of accidentally outing a PR is too high at this moment. Also, I feel like the scum may try to push me now due to my claim being uncomfirmable, so its better to come clean now rather than later. Around the time when my wagon was forming, I started to feel frustrated because so many people seemed to be suspicious of me and all of those on my wagon were trusted more than me. Also, I had seen Flavor's quickhammer earlier and had a game recently where every day phase ended with a quickhammer, so the risk of that was on my mind. I started to believe my lynch was almost impossible to avoid and thus tried to get attention off me so a member of the scumteam could hopefully get lynched instead and end up killed at night instead of an actual PR. I chose doctor to claim because I know actual doctors try to avoid claiming at all costs and figured there probably wasn't one in the game due to Profii dying N1 and three PR's being outed around that point (vengeful, vigilante, investigative). That meant there was likely only one, perhaps two PR's remaining. I figured that since strongman is uncommon to see in mini normal, that mean a doctor capable of acting N1 wasn't in this game. I've rarely seen even night or novice doctors, so I thought it was likely I wouldn't be cc'd if I said that or they would wait until later to try and get me lynched. My plan was either to get saved by another protective and then argue I was targeted or die off without my lie hurting anyone. Gamma's death threw a wrench in my plans because I didn't anticipate that at all. It was why I wanted to figure out what scum power roles there were, I wished to understand why they felt comfortable leaving two PR claims alive. I know all this may be hard to believe, but we have more than six days to talk, its best to make the most of it. In retrospect, this gambit was a bad idea, and I won't be trying anything like this again anytime soon.-
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I did want to draw the night kill Nonny. The whole point of claiming a protective was to draw the night kill away from the claimed investigative and towards me due to the scumteam hopefully assuming that I'm going to save Flavor Leaf. Nonny, I'm willing to vote you, FA, and the remaining people who were on my wagon at this moment. I'm not conditionally scumreading you in case of a FA flip, you are both independent scumreads who I think could very well be teammates. As for why I'm not voting anyone at the moment, I explained that in 529. I want this day to go on for a while before ending, with Reundo and Dave hopefully producing more content. I don't really get how you got to those conclusions however, it feels like you weren't paying attention to what I was saying very well or were flat out misrepping me.-
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Completly Trustworthy Goon
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Before Flavor said he visited Tchill, I thought the most likely scumteam was FA/Nonny/Tchill. I initially started to rethink my reads, but Tchill's latest posts have caused me to doubt him again. If he wanted to see who opposed his plan to control Carca's shot, why did his various lists of who should be killed not include FA in 452 and 468? Also, Nonny is missing from these lists as well despite being a lurker. Tchill has actually mentioned Nonny only around twice, in the posts 11 and 530. I'm curious, have Nonny and Tchill played together before?-
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By the way, I don't know for sure Gamma watched Profii on N1, that's just a guess of mine because its what I would have done. A PR claim is likely to get attacked or draw town protective roles on n1, so watching him makes sense. I can't confirm this though obviously. I like trying to guess what the power roles scum have are because it help me understand their strategy or judge whether someone is fakeclaiming.-
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Completly Trustworthy Goon
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As for why I and Flavor Leaf didn't die last night, I think this is probably what happened. The scumteam knew Gamma was a watcher somehow and decided to kill him, probably afraid that he would see them going after one of the PR claims or because they wanted to kill a threatening PR while also incriminating the other claims. If they had a roleblocker, they surely blocked Flavor Leaf. That plan would prevent them from being caught by the watcher while also setting up a mislynch of one of the claims.-
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Completly Trustworthy Goon
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Completly Trustworthy Goon
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Assuming the scum had a roleblocker and knew about Gamma being a watcher, here's a list of the things they could do.
Block me, kill Gamma- This lets Flavor investigate successfully
Block me, kill Flavor Leaf- This probably results in the watcher noticing the roleblocker or catching the killer in the act.
Block Flavor Leaf, kill me- There's a high chance of the watcher being on me
Block Gamma, Kill me- This lets Flavor investigate
Block Gamma, kill Flavor Leaf- They probably thought I was an actual doctor, so attacking the obvious protection target wasn't a good idea
Block Flavor Leaf, kill Gamma-This stops both invest results and leaves potential mislynches available.
If there is no roleblocker, then Gamma is the obvious target if they know about him. They would not want to attack me because of the watcher and Flavor would probably be assumed safe due to a doctor's protection. Therefore; it makes sense that I and Flavor lived.-
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Completly Trustworthy Goon
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Nonny, I think the scumteam have an investigative role such as a rolecop. They also might have decided to kill a threatening player and roleblock Flavor if they had a roleblocker so they could make the argument that the PR claims surviving meant at least one had to be scum even if they didn't know Gamma's role. So I don't think that me and Flavor Leaf surviving is really all that worthy of suspicion. Also, why did you say what you did in 539?-
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Associations are not the only reason why I think Tchill is scum. I feel like he isn't responding to posts. For instance, I asked him a question in 571 and he didn't answer. Then, when confronted with the case against him based on associations, he didn't really deal with them and instead just said the town doesn't know what's going on. He'a also made several pushes I think are suspicious since he never showed any doubt about whether he was right. He voted me because I stayed on a town PR, but didn't respond to the explanation I gave in 302 and just kept up pressuring me(which also stalled the forming FA wagon.) Later he pushed Carcalilly for acting odd despite her claiming vengeful, which would explain such behavior. His plan was also pro-scum as I explained in 465 and involved trying to avoid certain players being put on the list to be killed. As opposed to Flavor Leaf and UnabombaH constantly rethinking themselves, I feel like Tchill has done very little of that this game and has only pushed the easiest targets for surface level reasoning.-
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Completly Trustworthy Goon
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Una, I gave myself up because I figured that if I kept deceiving the town, then it would lose the game. Imagine what would happen if Tchill were later suspected because I falsely said I protected Flavor Leaf while he was actually cleared all along, I would have to reveal in that instance to avoid a townie being lynched. Also, what would happen if there was a mass claim in the future and the setup indicated that my claimed role shouldn't exist? I would have to claim what I did in both scenarios and probably wouldn't be believed. I confessed to minimize the damage my lie was going to do. Of course, I could very well have had scum motivations for doing this, but i feel like you aren't acknowledging that I could have done it for the town's sake too. Also, me undoing my claim to avoid Tchill not being confirmed innocent makes no sense because it was believed that he wasn't mechanically cleared anyway in posts like 525. I've also been constantly talking about how the scum might have had a roleblocker and blocked Flavor Leaf,so that wasn't my goal. Anyways, Tchill also had a major role in my wagon starting day 2 and even disrupted two existing ones(FA's and Una's) to do it. I don't see how anyone could think I'm scum with him.-
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I have three theories right now:
There is a scum investigative role that found out Gamma on N1 and the scumteam decided to kill him.
There is a scum investigative role that found out Gamma on N1 and a roleblocker
There is no scum investigative role, but the scumteam roleblocked Flavor Leaf and killed someone widely townread(Gamma) to frame the two PR claims
So I think there may be a scum investigative, a roleblocker, or both.-
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I don't like the way Fa, Nonny, and Tchill shaded me specifically. Nonny might have actively misrepped me in 539, FA called my posts "flailing" without bothering to discuss the points I made and while declaring me and Una to be scum together without a case, and Tchill said that one of the PR claims has to be scum, which I don't agree with and think scum might say.-
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I have Davesaz as a hard null. He's lurked and not posted that much, but apart from that I don't really have reason to suspect him. He feels a lot like Wilky, someone who just hasn't done enough for anyone to have strong opinions about him. I would like for him to post a lot more before the end of the day. If I'm wrong about the scumteam, he would be my next suspect.-
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The reason why I assumed that Gamma's role was known to the scum at first is because I generally expect the scumteam to prefer killing PR's over vanilla townies. I normally wouldn't expect to scumteam to overlook a PR claim and kill someone else who is likely to be a VT. However, I can see why you think differently Dave. Perhaps the point of the kill was to get rid of a widely townread player while keeping around a lot of mislynches.-
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Completly Trustworthy Goon
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Also, I didn't like the fact that Nonny said their vote wouldn't look like OMGUS. If she had voted right then, would anyone have thought of that as an OMGUS vote? That and their insistence in 499 that they weren't using ATE seem to me like her being overly self-conscious about what others think of her.-
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Completly Trustworthy Goon
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Completly Trustworthy Goon
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I personally think the idea of me reversing my claim to protect Tchill13 is quite silly. There is quite likely a protective role in the setup as Una said earlier and roleblocker is a common scum role. Therefore; undoing my claim wouldn't prove Tchill innocent if I'm scum since a future roleblocker flip or protective claim would uncomfirm him as town. Also, going into this day, there were five people(me, Nonny, FA, Reundo, and Davesaz) who I think seemed more likely to get lynched than him. It's bad strategy to temporarily clear a member of the scumteam who is already in a decent position at the cost of making someone else in it look really suspicious, increasing the chance of a scum lynch.-
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Here's my case for a FA/Nonny/Tchill team:
In 47, FA questioned someone who was voting Nonny while not really talking about her at all or stating an opinion on her wagon. In fact, I don't think they've given a read on Nonny or talked about her this whole game.
In 78, Tchill13 votes me in order to create a counterwagon to Nonny. However, I still don't get why he felt having two wagons was better than keeping the pressure on Nonny.
In 306, Tchill13 bothers to say that FA's points are great despite the post being somewhat scummy. This is the start of a pattern where the two of them are overly friendly.
In 352, Tchill13 shades Flavor Leaf, one of FA's accusers, while also implying FA is probably town.
In 384, Nonny talks about FA and says he hasn't stood out, its feels weird that they bothered to only discuss him over any other player and then came to no conclusions on him.
In 396, Tchill13 asks why FA is scum despite not discussing the points made against him by Flavor Leaf.
In 420, Nonny gives a odd townread of Tchill while also discouraging a FA wagon.
In 429, Tchill13 says Reundo should be killed and again ignores FA or Nonny despite him hating lurkers.
In 435, Tchill13 implies people who are not widely townread should be killed, but declines to go after FA despite so many people disliking him.
Tchill says he is worried about FA in 440, but never puts on a list before or afterward.
In 530, Tchill implies he will vote FA if Boon flips scum, while is something I think will never happen.
In 569, Tchill doesn't even list Nonny on his list of reads, which continues the trend of him ignoring her existence.
In 630, FA townreads Tchill
In 635, Nonny townreads both Tchill and FA, the latter of which I especially don't get.-
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Una, I was initially slightly suspicious of you since you were claiming that I was scum without completely explaining your case. However, your recent posts were very good, your thought process seems to be coming from a town mindset in my opinion. Most of what you said about the reasons for taking back my claim makes sense to be honest, however I gave my reasons for giving myself up in 582. I could have had both town and scum motivations for doing what I did, so I guess its up to you to judge which one you believe more. My comment in 377 was made because of my belief that the scumteam would prioritize targeting PR's over Vt's, unfortunately I was wrong. I started to scumread Tchill13 after he never explained the case against me better and pushed Carcalilly while not trying to kill several other players I scumread. Also, the comment Tchill made about me being town due to the claim being hard to get away with doesn't really seem that odd to me. He was probably saying scum would not try to fakeclaim a role which most people would expect to die at night when they can't die and then thought I only realized that at the start of day 3 when I took it back. I don't really think that indicates the two of us are scum together.-
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I don't really understand how FA is forming their reads. For instance, they initially said I was null in 462. Then they said that it was suspicious that I was still alive in 577. However, explanations were eventually offered for that. Now I don't get why they are so confident that I am scum and not null. Also, their read of Una is confusing. They claimed they didn't like 498, but I don't really see anything scummy in that and Una addressed it. Also, they said it was scummy that I wasn't being pushed on surviving the night(even thought I think I was), then claimed one of the people pushing me was a teammate. Basically, they claimed that the scum were simultaneously distancing themselves from me and trying to keep the attention off me, it just doesn't make much sense.-
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I'm liking Una at the moment, so I think its unlikely he's in a scumteam with anyone. Still, if you think Nonny is probably scum, why don't you want to vote her? Nonny already has an existing wagon and seems easier to get lynched successfully. Why do you think its better to lynch Una here than Nonny? Also, if you think Nonny is scum with Una, can you supply a case?-
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Tchill started out pushing me/Flavor Leaf by saying we shouldn't have survived, then began to claim Dave was likely scum once that push stalled. After Flavor discouraged people from voting Dave, he then went and said Una was scum(while agreeing with FA), only to backtrack when Una asked for a case. Then he started to appease Una by naming a scumteam he wasn't in and keeping me out of it despite his prior stated suspicions of me, that was a blatant attempt to make Una think we in a scumteam together. At this point, Tchill is pretty much obvious scum.-
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Una, can you comment on the cases I've made for a FA/Nonny/Tchill scumteam in 640 and other posts? Also, I feel like you are indeed being influenced by confirmation bias slightly. You said that a member of the scumteam has no need to put both their partners as scumreads in 637. On day three I've consistently scumread Fa, Nonny, and Tchill13. You're currently suggesting I'm teammates with Tchill and one of FA/Nonny, wouldn't it be odd for me to do that then? Also, all of three of those players have pushed me throughout the day, do you think the scumteam would spend a significant time bussing in MYLO with nobody in their team dead? Overall, I think FA/Nonny's tendency to townread Tchill and not target each other while Tchill finds reasons to vote everyone except them is much more suspicious.-
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