Mini Normal 2098 - Game Over! (Mafia Won)


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Post Post #39 (isolation #0) » Sat Aug 31, 2019 1:04 am

Post by Skellen »

In post 25, Kraeg wrote:
In post 12, Emperor flippyNips wrote:VOTE: skellen
This is odd.
I don't see what's so odd about it? I mean flippy gave you already kind of the obvious answer (mainly his 2.). The only thing he could have commented on was the beginning of the Garmr/Norwegianboy interaction. I understand you are scumreading the latter also for his opening, so if voting elsewhere is odd wouldn't it be more interesting to get to know why flippy decided to not comment/vote there?

Also I am a she. :neutral:
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Post Post #40 (isolation #1) » Sat Aug 31, 2019 1:05 am

Post by Skellen »

In post 27, NorwegianboyEE wrote:RVS votes don't matter for jack ****. That's what i believe, i'm just trying to follow the culture around these parts since some of the people here actually seem to believe that RVS votes matter. Yet now Profii is claiming my vote puts us out of RVS? Scummy.
I get your stance on this, I struggle with some things on this site too that just seem to be the general consensus here. Unfortunately you have to roll with it.

Tbh I am not really getting your point about profii why thinking your vote moved us out of RVS is scummy. I get your tonal read in #, but if you dislike RVS so much, why have you decided to roll with it instead of going for profii who gave you actually scummy vibes?
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Post Post #41 (isolation #2) » Sat Aug 31, 2019 1:06 am

Post by Skellen »

In post 35, Billy Pilgrim wrote: Not a fan of Norweigenboy's defensive tone, and definitely not a fan that he unvoted when getting pressure for voting.
Not a fan of this. I dislike how you are obviously not feeling good about Norwegianboy yet you are hesitant to increase the pressure on him with not voting him?

VOTE: Billy
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Post Post #110 (isolation #3) » Mon Sep 02, 2019 3:21 am

Post by Skellen »

Apologies for my absence during the weekend, got unexpectedly busy. Will read stuff and give my input.
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Post Post #111 (isolation #4) » Mon Sep 02, 2019 3:27 am

Post by Skellen »

In post 45, Billy Pilgrim wrote: Fair enough. I wait a bit before casting a vote. I get why you read this as off, but it's where I'm at now with how I want to play D1.
I can relate with that as I am also usually pretty conservative with my vote. I wouldn't have minded your post much to begin with, I tend to take a close look at people's wording and what mainly pinged me about your post back then was you emphasizing your stance about Norwegianboy with "definitely" which gave me the impression that you strongly disliked Norwegianboy backing off with his vote so it looked odd to me. I can dig your reply, particularly # because I agree with that observation.
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Post Post #112 (isolation #5) » Mon Sep 02, 2019 3:29 am

Post by Skellen »

In post 63, Kraeg wrote:Game is already out of RVS after a few posts 'cause of Norwegian.

Also, I'm getting a bad feeling about Billy's V/LA. I've been a player of this game for like years already and I've seen mafia abuse the V/LA as an excuse to avoid everyone. I'm not a big fan of people going on V/LAs.
Ok, many have already pointed out why this isn't making sense. Instead I am interested in what motivation you see in Billy abusing V/LA here? He wasn't really in a bad spot that avoiding people would have been necessary, the only pressure he got came from me with my vote, which even came after he announced his V/LA, and he responded to it during his V/LA.

Also not really fond of avoiding my question about flippy, which kind of confirms my suspicion that it was just a question asked for the sake of asking a question without any meaningful purpose.
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Post Post #113 (isolation #6) » Mon Sep 02, 2019 3:34 am

Post by Skellen »

In post 77, profii wrote:
If you are scum and someone unvotes due to pressure, i dont think you out that someone malleable to the entire group - i think you just say to yourself / the scum PT - look guys, if we pressure this guy he will do this or that, use that for later.

so i actually think this comes across as towny without meaning to.
I get your thought process here, but you have to walk me through it for a bit. Why don't you think it could have come from scum that is afraid of getting into focus with starting an early wagon considering Billy's hesitant attitude?
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Post Post #115 (isolation #7) » Mon Sep 02, 2019 3:37 am

Post by Skellen »

In post 82, Emperor flippyNips wrote: I think my 3 is the most important tbh
So sassy~

Voting someone as greeting isn't friendly, no? Next to that we have both played together often enough already that you know what I think of naked votes or votes without any further interactions into my direction.
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Post Post #116 (isolation #8) » Mon Sep 02, 2019 3:39 am

Post by Skellen »

In post 92, Billy Pilgrim wrote: Scum lean Norwegian
Talk to me about this. I interpreted # that you kind of have kind come around Norwegianboy yet he still seems to be your scumlean? Is it because you (seem to) disagree with him about Kraeg?
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Post Post #117 (isolation #9) » Mon Sep 02, 2019 3:43 am

Post by Skellen »

In post 96, Luca Blight wrote: I know I said her opening was decent in , but looking back it almost seems a little too 'polished', so I'm gonna sheep Profii on this one.
I am not going to parrot Garmr here as I agree with him regarding you for the most part. What interests me would be if your perception of my vote influenced your read on Billy's posts/behaviour which I was referring to back then as you seemingly agreed with me there? I phrased it maybe awkwardly, but I get profii's thought process as he came to another conclusion, I don't get how you got there though.
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Post Post #118 (isolation #10) » Mon Sep 02, 2019 3:45 am

Post by Skellen »

I feel positive about Norwegianboy and Garmr.

Norwegianboy's response about the profii thing at the beginning looked townie to me and his general attitude seems genuinely easygoing.

I was wary about Garmr at the beginning because his opening looked pretty similar to my last game with him where he was scum (joke vote then immediately confronting someone). However back then in that game his posts looked rather try-hardish and he generally felt a bit more tense while he seems noticeable more loose here. I also liked his stance in the Kraeg matter and him diving deeper into it to make more sense of Kraeg's play, this looks rather town-motivated in my eyes.

Suspect pool is for me atm Billy, Luca and Kraeg. Indifferent about the rest, although I feel a bit better about profii by tone/phrasing of his vote on me? Will maybe read him more in detail later.
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Post Post #152 (isolation #11) » Tue Sep 03, 2019 12:42 pm

Post by Skellen »

UNVOTE: Billy

I feel like I have a better grip at reading him with having more insight on his reads and feel a bit better about him, although I feel a bit iffy about him not wanting to be on a "vanity wagon" on page 7 while Mohab hasn't even reacted to his questions yet. Guess that will remain as my most frustrating slot in my notes.

Regarding Garmr/Luca I need to look more closely at it when it's not late in the night, but my first impression after reading through it is that imo Garmr hit a nail with saying that Luca's reasons for scumreading him didn't felt natural. Although I am mostly thinking here of him feeling negative about Garmr's mention of PR stuff and the slayers gambit thing. To me it felt he judged Garmr for that as scum because it doesn't look natural from town yet he didn't really pointed out why that is a scum motivated play. It's imo just bad play, maybe anti-town might be the better term, as both also admitted to (more or less). I mean if it's scum!Garmr I don't see why he brings up arguments that would potentially put the Kraeg push to a halt instead of just keeping it to himself and joining pushing Kraeg. Can you clarify this, Luca? Second paragraph in # does seem to be the only thing that comes close to it, but it doesn't really feel comprehensible.
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Post Post #219 (isolation #12) » Wed Sep 04, 2019 9:41 am

Post by Skellen »

In post 178, profii wrote:I'd like to see those 5 players take a stance on Luca vs Garmr and I will accept any of SvS, SvT, TvT as long as it comes with a rationale
Sure. As if I would say no to a request that would allow me to go wall mode. :lol:

Regarding Garmr I think he was during their 1v1 pretty straight forward and always easy to follow in his line of thinking. His case on Luca is pretty comprehensible to me, I think only the point that Luca only voted after Garmr's push and not when he did his catch up looked bad to me. But I think this was just an accidental misrep than something purposeful. I kind of think he was (purposely?) provocative at some points during their exchange (like the omgus comment as example), but I don't necessarily think these have a malicious intent, especially because he was suspecting that Luca doesn't have any real reasons to scumread him and I could see him trying to lure more out of Luca. Going by Garmr's general play it would look in character with his personality to me. I think in regard of Garmr's alignment I think his handling of Billy after that 1v1 is more telling though (positively obviously if that was not clear).

As for Luca I said already one important point in # yesterday. My main problem with Luca in that 1v1 is that I feel his arguments don't feel genuine, emphasized by the defensive nature of his posts. I mean while Garmr is pretty straight forward with his arguments I feel while Luca responses to these points it looks to me like he is beating around the bush a bit instead of directly addressing Garmr's points with not elaborating on the scum motivation he seems to focus on the defensive hairsplitting (like the passive-aggressive stuff). Ugh, I hope it kind of is clear what I mean here, but i don't know how to phrase it otherwise.
One thing that I disliked about Luca was how he treated Garmr's Kraeg read as "forced" (how so?), because Garmr's read in # had a consistent build-up of three posts before and is not forced at all, it's literally the logical conclusion of Garmr's interactions with Kraeg. I also don't see how it is compensating anything.

Generally it looked to me a bit like scum that picked the fight with the wrong opponent, but I can also see the angle of an annoyed townie backing out of the fight who just happens to have this defensive attitude generally. However I wonder if Garmr and Luca already ever have played a game together before?
His flip on me at the beginning is a bit redeeming here though, I don't see a specific scum motivation in doing so. Also I think I need to see more of Luca outside of his Garmr 1v1 to get a better overall read on him.
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Post Post #220 (isolation #13) » Wed Sep 04, 2019 9:45 am

Post by Skellen »

In post 186, Mohab500 wrote: I haven't really delved into the possibility of a Garmr + Kraeg scum team, on the surface from what I remember it looks a bit unlikely but not impossible.
I am not too good with these pre-flip team associations, but I don't get why you stick these two together? (sure, they are both your scumreads) Particularly if your first tendency is that is a bit unlikely?
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Post Post #222 (isolation #14) » Wed Sep 04, 2019 9:54 am

Post by Skellen »

Anyway...

VOTE: Kraeg

Went through his ISO that quick that I don't know what to say. I feel like he has his guard up the whole time. His reads seem vague and don't give that much away. I can get his point with his Garmr vote with coming from his point of view. But then again he only voted exactly those two that I have for the longest in my townreads, so I don't really like it. And I still think # looks like a typical scum opening post as I have outlined in #.
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Post Post #223 (isolation #15) » Wed Sep 04, 2019 9:57 am

Post by Skellen »

In post 221, Garmr wrote: First game together unless Luca was on a alt I don't know.
Ah, I see. Too bad, if it would have been the case it could have been a slight town indication with seeking that 1v1 (and always coming back).
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Post Post #287 (isolation #16) » Fri Sep 06, 2019 5:21 am

Post by Skellen »

Ugh, sorry for the prod.

I have to admit profii's pre-flip case on Billy pinged me a bit, although mostly because I tend to get wary if those are done. Somehow I feel half of the things I learned in the newbie queue get just flushed down the toilet outside of it. lol

I can however see the town motivation behind that given the gamestate and going by what he said in # with getting bored with the game, so I think that's a townie point in my reads in his favour.
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Post Post #288 (isolation #17) » Fri Sep 06, 2019 5:22 am

Post by Skellen »

In post 242, Mohab500 wrote: I am not sure if I missed something regarding this question; I am sticking these two together because they're my current scumreads. I think it's unlikely they're both scum together. I am just pointing out my thoughts on them for everybody to see.
Yeah nevermind, I forgot how to English and misread your sentence. It makes sense how you originally said it.

Ok, so I get that you thought Garmr was the scummier one in the 1v1 because his tone sounded like coming from caught scum. I would appreciate if you could explain what specific parts suggest so. Also since you think it's either TvT or TvS (with scum!Garmr) I assume you are townreading Luca? (or are you just saying "town" because he is just not scummy to you?) Anyway what I mean is what makes Luca townier to you?
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Post Post #289 (isolation #18) » Fri Sep 06, 2019 5:24 am

Post by Skellen »

In post 260, Emperor flippyNips wrote:Luca just reads scum to me idk why. could be ..., his face.
What. o.o

Anyway I think I get what you mean. It's kind of why I want to see more from Luca outside of his 1v1 as there is always the chance someone is just looking bad while getting constantly "tunneled".
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Post Post #290 (isolation #19) » Fri Sep 06, 2019 5:25 am

Post by Skellen »

In post 270, Kraeg wrote: Mohab is a sheep. Voted for me at first when people are saying I'm aggro, then jumped to Garmr when there was a wagon, then switched back to me now that the wagon is on me.
Why do you think did Mohab move away from the Garmr wagon back to you when the Garmr wagon just gained some momentum with three votes, just after your vote? Particularly if you consider that there always was the chance that Luca could move back putting Garmr up to L-1.
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Post Post #315 (isolation #20) » Fri Sep 06, 2019 12:31 pm

Post by Skellen »

In post 311, Garmr wrote:I find it weird people are trying to link other kreag as scum before the flip. I intend to hammer but I'm waiting for a bit more Emperor posts and a roleclaim.
My thoughts exactly. The more people start to make up any pre-flip associations regarding Kraeg the more I want to flip him.
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Post Post #316 (isolation #21) » Fri Sep 06, 2019 12:32 pm

Post by Skellen »

In post 291, Emperor flippyNips wrote: yahh you feel me!

also quick question, how many times have you been scum ?
I rolled scum twice. Once in the newbie queue and once in the normal. Although I wouldn't count the latter as both games were back to back and I was burned out from the former game and had to replace out in the normal game where I was playing pretty lackluster anyway.
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Post Post #317 (isolation #22) » Fri Sep 06, 2019 12:33 pm

Post by Skellen »

In post 294, Emperor flippyNips wrote: im leaning a mohab+Kraeg team
I understand that your reads after catching up might have changed since #. Still in that post you were null, likely town on Mohab. What changed that impression for you? Just because you hardly remembering anything about Mohab?
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Post Post #373 (isolation #23) » Sun Sep 08, 2019 2:19 am

Post by Skellen »

I should roll with the skitter policy and V/LA each weekend, I am so sorry. Got surprise visitors till Tuesday, but I think I should find my time to drop some posts though.

Nonetheless:
@mod: V/LA till Tuesday
Just in case.

I will have a time window in the evening to comment on some things I would like to from the recent two pages. I really liked profii's last post, it pointed 1-2 things out I actually want to check/reflect upon it (of course now with the assumption of town!Kraeg if he is).

I am not sure what to make of the claim yet. From a mechanical point of view it's on town side basically a weaker Jailkeeper without the protective side effect, right? Does this make sense in a 9p setup? That question is more addressed at the experienced players, because I suck at this stuff. I mean it suggests that scum either has much power (with two people? But I guess nightkill also gets blocked?) or is just a role to mess with other roles (I know RC/nsg did it also in another setup I played).

I am willing to give it the benefit of doubt for now, therefore UNVOTE: Kraeg
However I still need more from Kraeg by play, because his recent posts weren't thrilling either. Kraeg, can you give us a readslist with maybe one, two words about that?
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Post Post #418 (isolation #24) » Mon Sep 09, 2019 3:14 am

Post by Skellen »

Welp, I wanted to delve deeper on Mohab's post regarding his Garmr read and profii's points about Garmr with the assumption of town!Kraeg. Guess that's unnecessary with Garmr's claim. I am still interested in Mohab's response to # as that post mirrors more or less what I wanted to ask.

Regarding the claim situation I am inclined to believe that Garmr is town and Kraeg is just scum. Kraeg's play since his claim hasn't really changed in any helpful way that would change my mind about him outside of the claim situation. And Garmr was my strongest townread anyway. There wouldn't have been the necessity for scum!Garmr to counterclaim anyway, because Kraeg was still not looking good despite his claim, so that a lynch on Kraeg could have happened anyway.

Two blocker roles in a 9p setup doesn't feel right too. Finally I also think a Town Roleblocker looks too swingy in a 9p setup. First I thought it was a weak role because while it can target scum it can also easily hurt town as it has not the protective effect of a Jailkeeper role. Also without any further setup knowledge a Roleblocker that successfully targets scum basically is protective and investigative in one as he would stop the nightkill and would basically save a townie and be a hard guilty with no kill happening. Looks to strong imo, a Jailkeeper has still the wifom if he jailed the killer or the victim.
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Post Post #420 (isolation #25) » Mon Sep 09, 2019 3:16 am

Post by Skellen »

In post 417, Billy Pilgrim wrote:Ok I counted Garmr, Mohab, and Norwegian on Kraeg. That's L-2. No one else should vote yet until we have some discussion on the claim and CC. And I want Kraeg to weigh in on Garmr as well.
No one should vote Kraeg up to L-1, because there is always someone who can't keep it in his pants and quickhammer and we shouldn't end the day before we got more from flippy and Luca. Also consider that scum!Kraeg can always self-hammer and end the day once he is up to L-1. Considering his play since the claim and the general perception of Garmr's counterclaim he is probably aware that he is done for.
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Post Post #421 (isolation #26) » Mon Sep 09, 2019 3:24 am

Post by Skellen »

In post 388, Mohab500 wrote:Actually, it is related. I got confused, sorry. But it's not really about his point being correct.
If it's not Garmr's point what made you move back to Kraeg then? Your unvote seemed rather "dutiful" than doing it because you believed him. What was your thought process on unvoting and returning your vote then?
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Post Post #422 (isolation #27) » Mon Sep 09, 2019 3:30 am

Post by Skellen »

In post 392, Garmr wrote:Question does Kreag and mohab seem like cheap scum theatre?
So you assume scum was never trying to save Kraeg with a last effort after his claim and the votes are just a last distancing attempt? I can get that thought by Kraeg's reaction to Mohab changing from your wagon to Kraeg in #, but why do you think they both decide to push you just for Mohab changing immediately back to Kraeg?
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Post Post #423 (isolation #28) » Mon Sep 09, 2019 3:40 am

Post by Skellen »

If I go by the assumption of town!Garmr and scum!Kraeg it makes in retrospect the Garmr wagon that was a thing for a short while more interesting. Or better: I wonder how genuine that push ever was considering Kraeg pushed it to L-2 and there was always the chance of the Luca vote (who still had Garmr as potential scumread). Otherwise there were Billy and Mohab on the wagon. Unlike Garmr I don't know about Mohab, the immediate switch from Garmr to Kraeg after Kraeg's vote doesn't look consequent if scum would have decided to push Garmr. Which would lead me rather back to Billy, who was caught red-handed by Garmr with sheeping Luca's reasons if I recall correctly. Although that would look pretty clumsy. So another Billy reread it is.
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Post Post #467 (isolation #29) » Tue Sep 10, 2019 9:04 am

Post by Skellen »

In post 459, Mohab500 wrote: Anyways, I am still up for a Kraeg lynch, hopefully followed by Garmr. This is my main game.
What the fuck. But you are aware that Garmr is counterclaiming Kraeg? And that Garmr even pushed Kraeg into that claim?
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Post Post #468 (isolation #30) » Tue Sep 10, 2019 9:10 am

Post by Skellen »

In post 466, Billy Pilgrim wrote: Skellen should weigh in here on whether she's comfortable with this Lynch.

Also, still waiting to hear whether either of you have modifiers in your role. I went back through approved setups to see whether there were any with jailkeepers and roleblockers both on the town side. So I'd like to hear an answer to that question.
I think my stance on Kraeg/Garmr is pretty clear, I am only waiting if flippy and Luca have nothing else to say and it's the general consensus to see the Kraeg lynch through. Call it intent to vote once we are all ready to move on. This day has peaked at this point anyway.

I am afraid you won't even find a 9p game with just a Town Roleblocker to begin with. Went through the micro queue after Kraeg's claim for a while and didn't even find one game with a Town Roleblocker. But then again half the micro setups are somehow weird anyway. At least I learned to appreciate mods that edit all flips into their op.

Oh yeah, and obviously no one should reply to the modifier question.
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Post Post #534 (isolation #31) » Wed Sep 11, 2019 2:56 am

Post by Skellen »

Guess I was wrong when I said yesterday that this day has already peaked. I have yet to see how town fakeclaiming benefits town, so far I have only seen the opposite. I hate that. If Mohab flips green this shit would be super frustrating. Never self-hammer. Blergh, no idea when jackal is around so I have to do first thoughts on phone:

What bothers me is how fast this happened since Garmr retracted his claim. Just within two pages Mohab got lynched. It now depends on whatever alignment Mohab is going to flip of course. It confuses me how the Kraeg wagon basically had no counterwagon and then during the claim vs claim situation it shifted slowly to Mohab and the votes piled up before even a counterwagon in form of Billy or Kraeg could arise. I feel this went too smoothly. VCA might be a blast tomorrow.

Why is Kraeg suddenly town? Besides his claim he didn't do shit. As Garmr said, he didn't even try to fight the counterclaim, which would be the first natural reaction considering the competitive nature of their claims. Yes, I saw he had the opportunity to self-hammer, but what would rule stubborn scum here out?

I still think that Garmr is town. His counterclaim was awful, but I don't see that coming from scum. I mean I still don't see the necessity to do so? And particularly, why even retract this claim then AND derailing the Kraeg lynch? And no, I don't see them as team, that makes even less sense.
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Post Post #537 (isolation #32) » Wed Sep 11, 2019 3:13 am

Post by Skellen »

In post 532, Luca Blight wrote:It would be really odd timing to self-hammer as scum when he could have jumped on Garmr’s fake-claim or continued pushing Kraeg.

Although I’d have expected a little more frustrated shit-posting from town post-hammer, so perhaps there is a glimmer of hope.
Actually profii was showing willingness to compromise on Mohab to subject to his answer on the question why Garmr/Krag scumteam. Could have been Mohab thought of it as soft intent. That would probably indicate red flip.
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Post Post #539 (isolation #33) » Wed Sep 11, 2019 3:16 am

Post by Skellen »

Don't feel like that would have been a bus then though considerng there were Billy and Kraeg as viable options, at least not the latest votes. That would rather mean they would have been caught with their pants down.
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Post Post #553 (isolation #34) » Sat Sep 14, 2019 2:40 am

Post by Skellen »

Nah, you don't need to wait for the whole weekend. I am here, with one of the worst hangovers I can possibly have, but I am here. Kind of.

I want to delve into the analysis of the Mohab wagon, especially considering that the nk happened offside the wagon, but I will do that later when my head works properly. So I will just address some recent points of profii first.

I am not sure yet what to make out of the nk. On the surface the easiest answer is Norwegian was scumreading Kraeg and Billy and was willing to go through with it and one of them or both are scum and he died to have one accusant less. Otherwise Norwegian's reads aren't deviating much from the common reads as far as I can remember (personally I think I probably only disagreed about Luca). Haven't checked his ISO yet though.

Regarding the Roleblocker thing, I was dealing with it on D1 already when i tried to make sense out of the claim if the role looks plausible in a 9p setup and looked it up in the wiki. According to that it should be possible to block the nk, unless Jackal has somehow modified the role in some way. The important quotes are imo:
More simply - if the player has to submit an action to the moderator, a Roleblocker can block it.
Town

Generally, Roleblockers are intended to try to stop the Night-kill, or stop scum power roles in situations where they are known.
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Post Post #554 (isolation #35) » Sat Sep 14, 2019 2:54 am

Post by Skellen »

In post 552, profii wrote: So does Skellen still consider Kraeg potential scum here
Frankly yes, although I feel iffy with challenging an (now) not counterclaimed roleclaim.
To give some background to this, it hasn't been long that I got wrecked by scum fakeclaiming who dragged the resolution of the claim situation till lylo, although my first initial thought was that the role wasn't plausible and let me get talked out of it and ignored signals that I shouldn't have ignored. I tend to learn from my mistakes, so yeah, before I don't get any decent town pings by Kraeg I won't stop considering him as potential scum. His whole reactions since the counterclaim were just defensive what gives me the impression that he was just looking for survival (to be fair, you probably do that as town PR too), unfortunately we didn't see anymore what he would have thought of Garmr retracting his counterclaim.

I am not sure how much we can interpret from the Norwegian kill in regard to Kraeg, because if I go by his scumreads in # he was scumreading Garmr, Mohab and Norwegian. Two of these three have flipped town and Garmr, well... I don't know what his stance on Garmr is now after everything that went down during EoD1. But I mean, he looks bad with that, but I am not sure if he just looks bad or it is supposed to make him look bad. It kind of depends how Kraeg acts from here on.
In post 551, profii wrote:...however...
I think Garmrs point about not contesting the roles probably makes Kraeg more towny -
This was actually a point I already disagreed about last day, but didn't had the time to address to. So walk me through this. I think that view might be possible, but is also too one-dimensional, because it isn't really considering the context of the counterclaim situation. Kraeg was almost a universal scumread while Garmr, who temporarily counterclaimed, was far more townread with some exceptions. Now tell me how often in 10 of 10 cases would Garmr win this 1v1 over Kraeg if Kraeg takes Garmr head on? Trying to come up with the explanation that both roles would be possible is probably the only slim chance that scum!Kraeg had to get out of it. To be fair, I am looking at this with my semi-newb point of view, because so far everytime there were similar or the exactly the same roles in a game (Fruit Vendors and informed as example) they always were one town and one scum, so imo the first reaction to a similar role (particularly such a powerful role) might be that it's more likely scum.
Also I don't know if I misunderstand #, but he wasn't even considering Garmr as potential scum and thought it would have been a bad idea to counterclaim and that Garmr should even have protected him despite Garmr clearly scumreading him. I don't get the thought process.
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Post Post #581 (isolation #36) » Sun Sep 15, 2019 2:06 pm

Post by Skellen »

Hmph, LAL is pretty meh for D2. Isn't that just policy?

Kraeg, has your read on Garmr not changed at all? What is the scum motivation in Garmr's fakeclaim, retracting it and him personally leading the lynch away from you with voting Mohab up to L-1?

Generally how have your reads changed with both flips we got so far?
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Post Post #582 (isolation #37) » Sun Sep 15, 2019 2:08 pm

Post by Skellen »

@profii:
Can you explain how your stance developed during EoD1 on Mohab? Looking back at the Mohab wagon I had the impression going by # you were figuring due to your metaread on Mohab that he was completely different from his scumgame (which didn't necessarily mean it's town, as you said) as you already mentioned in # before where you were giving him a slight meta tick to the town box due to lack of content, so originally I assumed you had a very slight townlean on him. If I got it right so far. So came your willingness to compromise on him in # just from his illogical Kraeg/Garmr scumteam and was pretty much depending on his answer? I mean you elaborated in # what you were expecting, but just called it mental, which is as we - unfortunately - had to learn rather nai. Or was it just a compromise for a lynch's sake? (I don't remember anymore how the deadline was back then)
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Post Post #598 (isolation #38) » Mon Sep 16, 2019 4:09 am

Post by Skellen »

In post 584, profii wrote: I couldn't really make head nor tail or garmr vs kraeg and I was probably scared of lynching the 1 PR between them, so I was kinda hoping mohab said something really scummy about kraeg/garmr to settle my mind that everyone else was right and my meta check was not as strong a reason to not vote compared to everyone on the wagons reason to vote

So a bit compromise and a bit avoiding risk of PR loss I guess but if he had said something logical I would have restrained and defended it too i guess
I see, that explanation looks good enough for me. I wasn't sure where to put you regarding the Mohab wagon as I tend to consider people part of the wagon when they show intent to move there, especially if everything gets cut off with something surprising like that self-hammer. I was wondering if the Mohab wagon was actively or passively scumdriven (post-claims), but everytime I look at it to draw some conclusions out of it everything leads back to the question what Kraeg's alignment is. This lynch feels kind of inevitable.
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Post Post #603 (isolation #39) » Mon Sep 16, 2019 7:04 am

Post by Skellen »

In post 599, profii wrote:If you are pocketing me and letting town mislynch kraeg by apathetically letting us head towards it i will be quite unhappy, Skellen :(
Eh, but what can I do~. The ball is in Kraeg's court.

I mean let's look at it this way, let's assume Kraeg is town, who could be scum? Without going too much in-depth: Not you, because IC stuff will self-resolve (and I don't think by play either), if Garmr is scum then there is some serious 4D chess at play here, so rather nah. Billy makes no sense with his stance that Kraeg/Garmr is TvT, I don't think scum would miss out a chance to get a PR lynched. This would leave flippy/Luca as only pair that can make sense imo, so that's also good enough.

Now I can see scum!Luca moving to Mohab instead of town!Kraeg to play it safe, but I kind of feel that scum!flippy would have been less hesitant and would have hammered Kraeg, not instantly though. I played only once with scum!flippy and it has been a while ago, but there he had no problem with coming out of nowhere and voting a scummy townie who softed a PR up to L-1 despite the majority not being ready to lynch. Admittedly I have to check if flippy was around when Garmr voted Kraeg again back up to L-1.

And then there is always the off-wagon kill, who kinds of leads to the Mohab wagon. I just don't see why scum would lynch Mohab over town!Kraeg, there were two townies after all already on Kraeg after Garmr's retracted claim.
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Post Post #624 (isolation #40) » Mon Sep 16, 2019 11:50 pm

Post by Skellen »

In post 615, Garmr wrote: oh that's why you believed in Lucas case on me day 1 despite it being shit. I can buy that.
:lol:

Who is next in line with the massclaim?
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Post Post #625 (isolation #41) » Mon Sep 16, 2019 11:51 pm

Post by Skellen »

Ah nevermind, I guess it's just me and Billy who are left anyway. Well, I am VT.
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Post Post #626 (isolation #42) » Mon Sep 16, 2019 11:56 pm

Post by Skellen »

I can buy the Masons claim, I was starting to wonder where profii's strong townread on Luca was coming from considering it was based on some kind of intuitive read or because of similar thinking. Well, that explains it indeed.

Having Luca cleared makes things easier by a lot. Basically it negates the only plausible scumteam that I could see when the Garmr/Kraeg claim situation was TvT. Technically by PoE Billy/flippy can be possible, but as I pointed already out I still feel they both would have acted differently than they had. Will proofread just in case.

Going by the newbie queue formula three PRs look too much for a 9p game. So we would have two conftownies and one role that can block the nk and basically create a hard guilty when no kill happens. Yeah, this looks too strong. I don't see any synergy between Masons and Roleblocker anyway. I mean Billy has yet to claim, but I think with the Masons claim Kraeg's claim is just bs here.
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Post Post #636 (isolation #43) » Tue Sep 17, 2019 11:31 am

Post by Skellen »

In post 633, profii wrote: It makes no sense for scum to have a RB with no other PRs, nothing for them to block and it seems unfair that they have a misleading PR so I'm going back to my original theory that too many people wanted a Kraeg lynch day 1
This is assuming he is a Roleblocker to begin with. For all we know he could be a Goon that is fakeclaiming Roleblocker for pure survival, although admittedly the choice is odd. The very fact that he was refusing to out his rb target from N1 pre-massclaim rather indicates that he is lying, because there could have been the risk that he actually picks a PR that could immediately disprove him. Like I don't see why he wouldn't out his N1 target, it wouldn't confirm anything, but it wouldn't do any harm either.

Look, what makes it more likely that Town Roleblocker + 2 Masons work here? I know this is all mechanical, but what kind of power is scum supposed to have to counter that? It would just need a D1 scum lynch and technically with the right rb the other scum is caught right after the first night. That is swingy as hell.

Considering too many people want to see him getting lynched, he somehow always get away despite doing nothing. No substantial reads, mostly self-centered posts, justifying himself, partly with weird phrasing, ever since he claimed EoD1 or now on D2.
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Post Post #637 (isolation #44) » Tue Sep 17, 2019 11:46 am

Post by Skellen »

In post 634, Billy Pilgrim wrote: Particularly since 2 Masons is in the new newbie 2d3 setup and balanced with both 2 goons and a Mafia RB.
Ah cool, since when got the newbie queue new setups? But yeah, it's kind of interesting, although I don't get the idea behind the latter constellation. However these new setups are from the same guy as this game's setup. That would rather indicate that a Town Roleblocker seems very unlikely here, athough I don't necessarily think we are in the same setup.
Anyway I see no point to run in circles when the big elephant in the room has still done nothing that would indicate town and the result of the massclaim just adds fuel to it.

VOTE: Kraeg
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Post Post #640 (isolation #45) » Tue Sep 17, 2019 12:18 pm

Post by Skellen »

In post 629, Billy Pilgrim wrote: VOTE: Kraeg
Also, that's L-2.
In post 630, Jackal711 wrote: Kraeg (2) - profii, Billy Pilgrim

With 7 alive, it takes 4 votes to lynch.
In post 631, Billy Pilgrim wrote:Nevermind, it's L-3.
In post 633, profii wrote: VOTE: EFN
In post 637, Skellen wrote: VOTE: Kraeg
In post 639, Billy Pilgrim wrote:
I think this is L-1.
Billy's adventures in the wonderful world of numbers.

It's actually L-2. Two votes on Kraeg with profii changing his vote to flippy.
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Post Post #641 (isolation #46) » Tue Sep 17, 2019 12:23 pm

Post by Skellen »

In post 638, Billy Pilgrim wrote: That's definitely a possibility. And yes, it is
mostly
mechanical, but not entirely. If we're in A3, it would explain why Garmr moved from hard defending Kraeg early D1 to literally running a fakeclaim Gambit to get him lynched. If you remember, Kraeg's roleblocker claim was out there for a while before Garmr fakeclaimed. So he could have been pretty sure that no one else was going to fakeclaim. So it could have been a bussing Gambit that he ran when it looked like Kraeg was going down.
I am not sure I get you right here, but aren't you assuming that scum would know the setup then? That aside this looks super risky, particularly if Kraeg would have gotten hammered before Garmr could have retracted his claim and well, obviously would have survived the night.
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Post Post #673 (isolation #47) » Sat Sep 21, 2019 5:15 am

Post by Skellen »

Just dropping a post to avoid prod (although I have no idea how that works after new day started).

Will post later today or tomorrow more in detail, have to go through Billy's and flippy's ISOs. Tried to go through Kraeg's interactions with other people to get some hints, but ultimately he really avoided all interactions and only responded in a general manner, I think he only addressed flippy and Mohab directly once. Hmph.
I like Garmr's case on Billy, the points he brought up are hard to overlook. I have to reread the Garmr/Billy interaction about Garmr's VCA, now after reading it I want to check if he really tried to move the focus away from the Mohab wagon, I kind of had it in my mind that he was just thrown off by Garmr's confidence. I forgot about this interaction.
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Post Post #684 (isolation #48) » Sun Sep 22, 2019 3:44 am

Post by Skellen »

Done with reading through Billy's ISO. I think what pings me the most is Billy's defensive attitude around Kraeg on D1. It's suboptimal scumplay to bus your partner on D1 already in a 9p game, especially if it is a Roleblocker, which is considered as a pretty powerful scum PR here. It would normally suggest that town has a lot of power, so I would assume that they were trying to keep Kraeg alive on D1. And Billy's D1 play fits this criteria well to an extent. It feels weird though, because everytime Billy is not involved with something Kraeg-related he comes off as a little bit townie to me.

I agree with Garmr that Billy's reaction to Kraeg's V/LA shade is weird, that he ruled out it would come from scum. I am not sure how to think about that though. On one hand I can see it as some low effort distancing from Kraeg with shading Billy for V/LA as it looks pretty forced like grasping at anything just to some dirt to throw at Billy. But one the other hand it
is
really low effort and pretty blatant. Given how Kraeg's play was more in a in-your-face manner, I am inclined to think it could be SvS, but it looks kind of clumsily executed.

But then again there is # where he basically turned the tables on Mohab where he takes a defensive stance for Kraeg with saying that his shading is drawing too much attention to be scum motivated and paints him as easy mislynch target (on another note I generally dislike this easy mislynch target card, because it's imo a lazy excuse to let people get away with scummy behaviour).

Otherwise I kind of thought his read progressions on other slots were kind of townie on D1 until he joined the Garmr wagon where he got immediately called out by Garmr. Garmr covered this part already.

# pinged me hard though. The part that he addressed to Kraeg looks like setting up a justification why Kraeg would be kept around this game, basically downplaying it as mislynch bait play. But literally a few posts later he builds up Norwegian as lylo liability for his playstyle in #. He backed a bit off after profii intervened and Billy corrected himself how he originally meant that. I think this correction could have been genuine, but it leaves a bitter taste.

I disliked his constant rolefishing (modifiers & potential held back PR claim in massclaim) and PR directing with Jailkeeper and potential investigative, unfortunately this is something that also comes way too often from townies on this site. I am not sure though if I can consider it as nai if I go by the amount of his fishing/directing attempts.
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Post Post #685 (isolation #49) » Sun Sep 22, 2019 3:47 am

Post by Skellen »

This got longer than it was intended to become. Ugh. And I even left some parts out like some wordings specific stuff or as I thought Billy's spec that Kraeg is a Mafia Roleblocker and we are in the A3 setup of newbie queue sounded like tmi. However I figure he originally got the thought from Garmr who asumed Kraeg was just claiming his real role.

Anyway I can see enough scum equity in Billy and I am inclined to say it's probably just the simple answer and it's just Billy. But still I need to review flippy. Probably going to do this later after dinner.
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Post Post #686 (isolation #50) » Sun Sep 22, 2019 3:56 am

Post by Skellen »

In post 683, Billy Pilgrim wrote: Also, Emperor saying:
I think i need to go back over BIlly/skellen before i come to a decision. Cos I haven’t been able to read them all game & in most games I’ve played with them they are pretty obvi town to me.
is pretty odd, because he and I only played one game together, which I can finally talk about since it's over. In that game I passed two "tests," for which I got heavily read as town. Except I was scum.

So what are you talking about unless you were setting up to vote me?
Ok, here kicks the PTSD in. Which game are you referring to? I have seen this in another game with scum!Vorkuta slipping with exact the same thing before, however there he was handing out a townread based on wrong meta, while flippy isn't really handing out a read here. But I really would like it if flippy can explain how he meant that post in regards to Billy.
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Post Post #696 (isolation #51) » Sun Sep 22, 2019 11:00 am

Post by Skellen »

I was kind of wondering how flippy had so many posts when I didn't remembered so many, but after going through his ISO I got it, almost the whole D1 is full of nullposts. I can see a world with scum!flippy, because that could explain why the situations felt so awkward everytime the majority settled on Kraeg with no fighting back (both days), because Kraeg's partner was simply too disassociated from the game to act in any meaningful way.

Regarding Kraeg however he seemed to suspect Kraeg, although at the beginning it was mostly for RVS and then later he seemed to agree with Garmr about Kraeg and gave immediately intent to hammer once profii voted Kraeg up to L-1 and it became clear that the lynch would most likely settle on Kraeg. He never gave a more explained read on Kraeg besides scumreading him due to his vibe. The notable thing is imo that flippy never really had any scumread but Kraeg, so he never really had an option to go elsewhere, which is kind of a dangerous play considering Kraeg was the Roleblocker. He had a Mohab/Kraeg team, but he decided to go rather for Kraeg. It doesn't really feel like a bus, but then again he only got further involved once the Kraeg wagon was already peaking on D1, but I don't know if he would give intent to his partner to force a fakeclaim.
Otherwise there was Luca for a short while, but he communicated early that he doesn't really know how to feel about Luca. I actually got some townie vibes from his Luca read, although mostly because I could relate with it as I felt we had similar reservations about Luca.

His D2 was pretty null again, mostly interpretation of the Norwegian kill like "it could be this or it could be that" without giving any real stance what he thought, although I think between the lines his conclusion was that he was still scumreading Kraeg. As for his interactions with profii regarding modconfirming as IC I can see both a town and scum motivation in it, but I am leaning town because he got a point that there was no merit with waiting till a push on profii came (as there were no signs there would ever come one) and alternatively scum!flippy could have just waited for the massclaim to see what profii would do instead of pressuring him about it.

I think it's just lazy town!flippy, mostly for his profii interactions and the way he dealt with Luca, because I think regarding Kraeg in a scenario with scum!flippy there is the possibility things just went down how they went because of bad timing.
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Post Post #697 (isolation #52) » Sun Sep 22, 2019 11:04 am

Post by Skellen »

In post 690, Billy Pilgrim wrote: But Skellen again not commenting on the fact that Kraeg shaded virtually everyone but her and Profii after I pointed it out makes me feel like I might be onto something there.
Ok, but I mean you pointed already out by yourself that he didn't do it with profii either which alone shows that this can only get taken with a grain of salt.
You have to consider the context of his comment about me being "too textbook" would be null as he used this indirectly right in the next post to shade Luca, whose vote was based on the textbook thing, which wouldn't have been believable when he was scumreading the textbook thing anyway. After all from his point of view the leading wagon (me, L-2) was on town already with at least two townies on it, so I can see him rather shading people on the wagon than the person who gets wagoned anyway, particularly because Luca looked kind of contradictory and vulnerable (unlike profii as example).

Otherwise I can see him being hesitant to scumread or join the wagon, because his partner was already on me and it would just draw even more attention with an early L-1 wagon and both scum being on it, which would indicate scum!flippy. However as flippy wasnt that present with his scumreads/votes during the day it's hard to compare as Kraeg as example never mentioned Luca again (when flippy was on Luca with his vote) and later flippy was just scumreading Kraeg.
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Post Post #698 (isolation #53) » Sun Sep 22, 2019 11:23 am

Post by Skellen »

While I am at it, here is imo maybe some evidence which solidifies town!Garmr. Got the idea when I was looking at the newbie setup that Billy has linked. It's mostly Kraeg's role.

While we seem to be in the A3 setup of the newbie queue we aren't playing with the rules of the newbie queue here. In newbie games all scum PRs are automatically multitasking, so they can carry out both kill and ability simultaneously. I checked Jackal's op if he had a similar rule about this, but there isn't any rule regarding this matter. And Kraeg only flipped Roleblocker, so without multitasking modifier.

Kraeg's push on Garmr during D1 felt genuine as I thought he wanted to use the momentum on the wagon to get a lynch on Garmr through 8with Luca there was at least one townie who might have joined the wagon again). And considering the importance of a roleblock for scum in a 9p game (well, usually) I think it's very unlikely that Kraeg would bus his own partner who he would need to do the nightkill, because he wouldn't be able to perform the roleblock in the night then (well and the fact they would be one man short too). Assuming people play rationally, which I would at least assume in Garmr's case.
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Post Post #699 (isolation #54) » Sun Sep 22, 2019 11:30 am

Post by Skellen »

In post 691, Billy Pilgrim wrote:Also, I doubt this will persuade anyone, but I 100% would not kill Norwegian N1. In fact it's unlikely that I NK him at all. I want him in LYLO with me as scum. Turns out his focus on Kraeg was right, but the guy seemed to have problems getting off anyone that scumread him. That's an asset for scum in LYLO.
He was scumreading both of you though and he was pretty pursuing while doing so as we saw with Kraeg, because ultimately he always came back to his scumread. And he would have gotten some town cred with a Kraeg flip. And he literally had you as next suspect in case of a scum!Kraeg flip. I doubt scum!you would keep him around till lylo.
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Post Post #700 (isolation #55) » Sun Sep 22, 2019 11:36 am

Post by Skellen »

Also pagetop
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Post Post #701 (isolation #56) » Sun Sep 22, 2019 11:36 am

Post by Skellen »

Yay~ :D
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Post Post #702 (isolation #57) » Sun Sep 22, 2019 11:38 am

Post by Skellen »

Anyway as I am now I am inclined to vote Billy, the case on him fits while I can see some buts and ifs in flippy's case. Since it would already be L-1 I will wait till tomorrow, Luca hasn't even checked in yet.
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Post Post #755 (isolation #58) » Tue Sep 24, 2019 12:20 am

Post by Skellen »

In post 703, Billy Pilgrim wrote: @Skellen - it sounds like you were gearing up for Flippy if it's not me. Is that your second bet?
Yes, due to PoE. I have been townreading Garmr for most of this game and I feel good with that. Like I see the scumreads on him which mostly seem to be build around his fakeclaim, but I am rather taking the approach of basic logic regarding his fakeclaim that makes me think Garmr's play comes from town than from scum.

It's either you or flippy for me and while I can see in both of you points for being scum I am tending to think that by associatives with Kraeg you look like the right bet considering how I would think the scumteam might have acted on D1 (which is imo more indicative than D2 has been). While with flippy the most scummiest thing was probably his sudden quick intent on Kraeg on D1 and that him feeling disconnected from the game could explain the apathy around the Kraeg wagons.
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Post Post #756 (isolation #59) » Tue Sep 24, 2019 12:21 am

Post by Skellen »

In post 731, Emperor flippyNips wrote:I haven’t read skellen full iso but I’ve read enough to where i think i can clear her.

@skellen~ I might still want to question you a bit.

Like, how many games have you & billy played together?
I knew after # that you have come to my ISO. :lol:

As Billy already said, it's the first game, to be precise everyone here is new to me besides you and Garmr.

What are you going to do with this information?
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Post Post #757 (isolation #60) » Tue Sep 24, 2019 12:23 am

Post by Skellen »

Luca's read of Garmr is the most comprehensive one for me why Garmr could be scum, however I think that the fakeclaim still has way too many risky variables. Like scum had no idea about the setup besides the Roleblocker and if we would hypothetically actually had a protective PR in this game this play would have been busted immediately. Or Kraeg could have gotten lynched before Garmr could have retracted his claim and in that case he wouldn't look good either next day if he is still alive and he reveals it was all just an act. I feel this play would have for scum only in rare scenarios a favourable payoff.
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Post Post #758 (isolation #61) » Tue Sep 24, 2019 12:24 am

Post by Skellen »

Anyway I think it's just between Billy and flippy and the most evidence leads imo to Billy while I have the feeling with flippy it's more that we generally haven't much substantial at hands.

I am fine with ending this.

VOTE: Billy

L-1
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Post Post #772 (isolation #62) » Wed Sep 25, 2019 6:27 am

Post by Skellen »

VOTE: Garmr
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Post Post #774 (isolation #63) » Wed Sep 25, 2019 6:28 am

Post by Skellen »

Well... that was fast.
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Post Post #777 (isolation #64) » Wed Sep 25, 2019 6:30 am

Post by Skellen »

I just had an enlightenment that my townread on Garmr was wrong and he is scum. :good:
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Post Post #778 (isolation #65) » Wed Sep 25, 2019 6:33 am

Post by Skellen »

But yeah, apparently it was me.
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Post Post #791 (isolation #66) » Wed Sep 25, 2019 10:07 am

Post by Skellen »

Thanks guys! :)

Good catch Billy, that damning nullread was exactly the one thing that made me really worried, it was difficult to come with something up to shoot that down without looking sneaky.

Still don't understand the setup though. But well, at least it worked. :lol:
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Post Post #792 (isolation #67) » Wed Sep 25, 2019 10:09 am

Post by Skellen »

Also thanks for modding, Jackal. It was well done.

I liked that you were always updating the current vc in the op.

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