Mini Normal 2098 - Game Over! (Mafia Won)

[Emperor flippyNips]

I think i need to go back over BIlly/skellen before i come to a decision. Cos I haven’t been able to read them all game & in most games I’ve played with them they are pretty obvi town to me. A feeling i have is making me lean billy over skellen. I have no idea what the feeling is but i’ll Let y’all know in vote form later where i stand. Unless its L-1 then i’ll Express intent

[Emperor flippyNips]

@luca– how are you feeling about garmr?

[Emperor flippyNips]

I don’t remember to many post by him so i gots to ISO him too. I want to say town but at the moment I’m so damn wishy washy in this game. I need to get a grip. I think i’m Going to be able to soon.

[Luca Blight]

I’m V/LA, will get to this Tomorrow.

[Billy Pilgrim]

Okay well I 100% trust the mason claim. Thanks scum for giving us a confirmed townie

they were confirmed masons after the scum flip. Unless one was lying which I don't think Luca is the type.

Yeah, I agree. I don't know what Emperor is talking about here.

[Billy Pilgrim]

Ok, I read back through Kraeg's iso, and I'd recommend everyone do that. Something jumped out at me. He shaded almost everyone. Almost everyone. He starts by "sheeping" Garmr and voting Norwegian at 24. Then he immediately shades Flippy for voting Skellen w/o explaining it @25. Then another post shading Norwegian. Then at post 63 he shades me for the V/LA, then 64 he adds Luca onto that pile.

Post 105 is the first time he does something other than shade or attack and it's to express that Skellen is null because the "too textbook" read from Profii may just be a newbie thing.
106 shades Luca for his read of Skellen. Then a couple of posts where he's not doing much. Then 184 he hops on the Garmr wagon. Then 185 shades Mohab while he's on the Garmr wagon, while continuing to say he's comfortable with a Garmr Lynch while Garmr at this time I don't think was close to Lynch.

A couple of posts that are mostly defensive, then 269 back to accusing Mohab of misrepresenting him. 270 back to shading Norwegian and Mohab. 271 has Garmr, Norwegian and Mohab as his scumleans. Then he's back to defense for a while. Maybe those 300 oats are interesting because at 342 he says that he thinks that he wouldn't be surprised if both scum are on his wagon. And 324 he said that one player would definitely flip scum, but he kept it vague so j don't know if you can do a POE here.

Then day 2 there's like nothing. Bit of shade for Profii about not being confirmed inno child and voting Garmr.

What I got from this was that he didn't try to townread anyone. Everything was either a scum read or scum lean. Also lots of shade. He shaded Mohab, Luca, myself, Norwegian, Emperor. Scumread/leaned Garmr, Mohab, and Norwegian.

Here's the weird outliers. He didn't really go after Profii, now conf!town, or Skellen.

Now I don't know what to make of that. I feel like I want to clear Garmr off these interactions, because Garmr probably got it the worst, but Norwegian was the second worst and he was the nightkill. So I feel like these interactions probably clear Garmr.

Skellen looks the worst from Kraeg's iso. The null read sticks out. Like alot. But he didn't shade Profii and he's conf!town so I don't know what to make of that. Imy suspicion is a bit elevated by Skellen's sort of de-emphasis of Kraeg's iso so I'm going to re-read there.

I also looked at the VCs. Here, Skellen looks a bit better. Skellen is on Kraeg 3rd when he gets to L-1. Then not voting when Mohab gets to L-1 and not voting at end of day.

Day 2 Skellen is third on Kraeg behind Profii and myself, which turned into second when Profii voted Emperor later.

When I looked at the VCs, Emperor jumped out at me. He's sort of absent the whole time. He had an RVS vote on Skellen, which is what prompted Kraeg's post at the beginning shading him. Then he moves over to Luca during the Garmr/Luca 1v1 (which means that he was on an opposite side of Kraeg - so that may mean something). Then he unvotes and doesn't cast a vote the rest of the day.

He went all of day 2 without voting.

I think it's between the two low activity slots. That may also explain why Kraeg got to kill Norwegian, because I did not understand that night kill.

[Emperor flippyNips]

Okay well I 100% trust the mason claim. Thanks scum for giving us a confirmed townie

they were confirmed masons after the scum flip. Unless one was lying which I don't think Luca is the type.

Yeah, I agree. I don't know what Emperor is talking about here.

I literally said what he did, before him in a different way? What's there not to get?

[Garmr]

So just going to throw this out there. We know that a townie lied and said they were vanilla townie since scum have a roleblocker.

Billy also slipped having knowledge about it yesterday by saying No one would believe it if they came out today.

I think this is L-1. No lolhammers. Intent then we discuss.

Anyone holding back a PR?

If Kraeg flips town, and someone claims a pr tomorrow, I am going to have a hard time believing it.

Therefore billy is either the town power role or scum that has knowledge of it. I think it's the latter as these look like his fishing for a response not setting up his claim for latter.

I'm 100% vanilla townie and didn't lie about it. So I think the other role should claim.

[Billy Pilgrim]

So just going to throw this out there. We know that a townie lied and said they were vanilla townie since scum have a roleblocker.

Billy also slipped having knowledge about it yesterday by saying No one would believe it if they came out today.

I think this is L-1. No lolhammers. Intent then we discuss.

Anyone holding back a PR?

If Kraeg flips town, and someone claims a pr tomorrow, I am going to have a hard time believing it.

Therefore billy is either the town power role or scum that has knowledge of it. I think it's the latter as these look like his fishing for a response not setting up his claim for latter.

I'm 100% vanilla townie and didn't lie about it. So I think the other role should claim.

I don't understand why you're trying to Lynch me so bad today, but this is just wrong, and I'm pretty sure we talked about it D2 so I don't know why you made the mistake. There is a newD3 setup (specifically A3) with a mafia roleblocker and 2 town masons as the exclusive PRs. Now, I no longer think a town pr is holding back. I was saying that yesterday because I wanted to confirm the masons. Once Kraeg flipped they were confirmed for me, because I couldn't one of them confirming the other unless they were both masons. Also, scum masons aren't normal. So Luca and Profii were both lock town once Kraeg flipped. So yes, I was fishing. We were already in mass claim and I made it clear I wanted to get a sense of the setup. And it was my analysis of the setup that had me cast the vote to hit scum Kraeg.

And I saw some late claims post mass claim in the only game I remember playing against Emperor.

Also, Emperor saying:

I think i need to go back over BIlly/skellen before i come to a decision. Cos I haven’t been able to read them all game & in most games I’ve played with them they are pretty obvi town to me.

is pretty odd, because he and I only played one game together, which I can finally talk about since it's over. In that game I passed two "tests," for which I got heavily read as town. Except I was scum.

So what are you talking about unless you were setting up to vote me?

[Skellen]

Done with reading through Billy's ISO. I think what pings me the most is Billy's defensive attitude around Kraeg on D1. It's suboptimal scumplay to bus your partner on D1 already in a 9p game, especially if it is a Roleblocker, which is considered as a pretty powerful scum PR here. It would normally suggest that town has a lot of power, so I would assume that they were trying to keep Kraeg alive on D1. And Billy's D1 play fits this criteria well to an extent. It feels weird though, because everytime Billy is not involved with something Kraeg-related he comes off as a little bit townie to me.

I agree with Garmr that Billy's reaction to Kraeg's V/LA shade is weird, that he ruled out it would come from scum. I am not sure how to think about that though. On one hand I can see it as some low effort distancing from Kraeg with shading Billy for V/LA as it looks pretty forced like grasping at anything just to some dirt to throw at Billy. But one the other hand it

is

really low effort and pretty blatant. Given how Kraeg's play was more in a in-your-face manner, I am inclined to think it could be SvS, but it looks kind of clumsily executed.

But then again there is #109 where he basically turned the tables on Mohab where he takes a defensive stance for Kraeg with saying that his shading is drawing too much attention to be scum motivated and paints him as easy mislynch target (on another note I generally dislike this easy mislynch target card, because it's imo a lazy excuse to let people get away with scummy behaviour).

Otherwise I kind of thought his read progressions on other slots were kind of townie on D1 until he joined the Garmr wagon where he got immediately called out by Garmr. Garmr covered this part already.

#196 pinged me hard though. The part that he addressed to Kraeg looks like setting up a justification why Kraeg would be kept around this game, basically downplaying it as mislynch bait play. But literally a few posts later he builds up Norwegian as lylo liability for his playstyle in #207. He backed a bit off after profii intervened and Billy corrected himself how he originally meant that. I think this correction could have been genuine, but it leaves a bitter taste.

I disliked his constant rolefishing (modifiers & potential held back PR claim in massclaim) and PR directing with Jailkeeper and potential investigative, unfortunately this is something that also comes way too often from townies on this site. I am not sure though if I can consider it as nai if I go by the amount of his fishing/directing attempts.

[Skellen]

This got longer than it was intended to become. Ugh. And I even left some parts out like some wordings specific stuff or as I thought Billy's spec that Kraeg is a Mafia Roleblocker and we are in the A3 setup of newbie queue sounded like tmi. However I figure he originally got the thought from Garmr who asumed Kraeg was just claiming his real role.

Anyway I can see enough scum equity in Billy and I am inclined to say it's probably just the simple answer and it's just Billy. But still I need to review flippy. Probably going to do this later after dinner.

[Skellen]

Also, Emperor saying:

I think i need to go back over BIlly/skellen before i come to a decision. Cos I haven’t been able to read them all game & in most games I’ve played with them they are pretty obvi town to me.

is pretty odd, because he and I only played one game together, which I can finally talk about since it's over. In that game I passed two "tests," for which I got heavily read as town. Except I was scum.

So what are you talking about unless you were setting up to vote me?

Ok, here kicks the PTSD in. Which game are you referring to? I have seen this in another game with scum!Vorkuta slipping with exact the same thing before, however there he was handing out a townread based on wrong meta, while flippy isn't really handing out a read here. But I really would like it if flippy can explain how he meant that post in regards to Billy.

[Garmr]

I feel like we should just lynch billy and end the game.

[Emperor flippyNips]

@Billy– have I only played that game with you. I thought it was at least two. & I looked at that game last night & didn’t realize you were in it. I just saw Goble & LUV. but now that you said something I went and checked the playlist.

[Billy Pilgrim]

@Billy– have I only played that game with you. I thought it was at least two. & I looked at that game last night & didn’t realize you were in it. I just saw Goble & LUV. but now that you said something I went and checked the playlist.

That's the only one I had off the top of my head. Then when I checked your topics, that is the only game name I recognized and I've only been on site for like 2 and a half months. So I think that's the only one.

[Billy Pilgrim]

I feel like we should just lynch billy and end the game.

I'm a mislynch, and your play today, in ignoring that you were the first one to defend Kraeg for surface level scummy behavior, while using it to create associatives with me, and pushing me hard makes me think youre the other scum here. But I don't want to get this wrong, because if I'm dead, which it looks like is probably going to happen, I don't want to send the rest of town in the wrong direction. So I'm going to re-read.

Yes, I liked your post trying to look past whether Kraeg was just surface level scummy. I had just seen it in that 2095 game that I was playing with Emperor, where tchill had done the same thing in reference to Emperor. And I knew it was from town, because I was scum. So when I saw you do that, it looked like you were reading for motivation rather than surface level pushes. Now I wonder if you were just protecting your teammate who did nothing but surface pushes all game.

But Skellen again not commenting on the fact that Kraeg shaded virtually everyone but her and Profii after I pointed it out makes me feel like I might be onto something there.

[Billy Pilgrim]

Also, I doubt this will persuade anyone, but I 100% would not kill Norwegian N1. In fact it's unlikely that I NK him at all. I want him in LYLO with me as scum. Turns out his focus on Kraeg was right, but the guy seemed to have problems getting off anyone that scumread him. That's an asset for scum in LYLO.

The fact that Garmr pushed Norwegian's reads so hard, but waited a full day to do it makes me think it may be him. I'm going to recheck the VCA and see if a Garmr/Kraeg team makes sense. My initial thought is no because of how that claim went down, but based on how play developed after that cc, he could have been trying to use that situation to deepwolf. I'm not there yet, I want to recheck the vote counts.

[Jackal711]

VOTE COUNT 3.1

Skellen (0) -
Luca Blight (0) -
Garmr (0) -
Emperor FlippyNips (0) -
Billy Pilgrim (1) - Garmr

Not Voting: Emperor FlippyNips, Billy Pilgrim, Skellen, Luca Blight

ACTIVITY NOTES:

With 5 alive, it takes

3

votes to lynch.

Day 3 deadline is Friday, October 4th at 8:15 pm PDT which is in

(expired on 2019-10-04 20:15:00)

[Emperor flippyNips]

I’m gonna iso everyone that’s alive. We have some time & i want to put some work into my vote

[Emperor flippyNips]

Gonna start once I get home. Well I’ve already started but i’ll Continue once I’m home

[Emperor flippyNips]

@Billy– have I only played that game with you. I thought it was at least two. & I looked at that game last night & didn’t realize you were in it. I just saw Goble & LUV. but now that you said something I went and checked the playlist.

That's the only one I had off the top of my head. Then when I checked your topics, that is the only game name I recognized and I've only been on site for like 2 and a half months. So I think that's the only one.

Heh guess I’m wrong

[Skellen]

I was kind of wondering how flippy had so many posts when I didn't remembered so many, but after going through his ISO I got it, almost the whole D1 is full of nullposts. I can see a world with scum!flippy, because that could explain why the situations felt so awkward everytime the majority settled on Kraeg with no fighting back (both days), because Kraeg's partner was simply too disassociated from the game to act in any meaningful way.

Regarding Kraeg however he seemed to suspect Kraeg, although at the beginning it was mostly for RVS and then later he seemed to agree with Garmr about Kraeg and gave immediately intent to hammer once profii voted Kraeg up to L-1 and it became clear that the lynch would most likely settle on Kraeg. He never gave a more explained read on Kraeg besides scumreading him due to his vibe. The notable thing is imo that flippy never really had any scumread but Kraeg, so he never really had an option to go elsewhere, which is kind of a dangerous play considering Kraeg was the Roleblocker. He had a Mohab/Kraeg team, but he decided to go rather for Kraeg. It doesn't really feel like a bus, but then again he only got further involved once the Kraeg wagon was already peaking on D1, but I don't know if he would give intent to his partner to force a fakeclaim.
Otherwise there was Luca for a short while, but he communicated early that he doesn't really know how to feel about Luca. I actually got some townie vibes from his Luca read, although mostly because I could relate with it as I felt we had similar reservations about Luca.

His D2 was pretty null again, mostly interpretation of the Norwegian kill like "it could be this or it could be that" without giving any real stance what he thought, although I think between the lines his conclusion was that he was still scumreading Kraeg. As for his interactions with profii regarding modconfirming as IC I can see both a town and scum motivation in it, but I am leaning town because he got a point that there was no merit with waiting till a push on profii came (as there were no signs there would ever come one) and alternatively scum!flippy could have just waited for the massclaim to see what profii would do instead of pressuring him about it.

I think it's just lazy town!flippy, mostly for his profii interactions and the way he dealt with Luca, because I think regarding Kraeg in a scenario with scum!flippy there is the possibility things just went down how they went because of bad timing.

[Skellen]

But Skellen again not commenting on the fact that Kraeg shaded virtually everyone but her and Profii after I pointed it out makes me feel like I might be onto something there.

Ok, but I mean you pointed already out by yourself that he didn't do it with profii either which alone shows that this can only get taken with a grain of salt.
You have to consider the context of his comment about me being "too textbook" would be null as he used this indirectly right in the next post to shade Luca, whose vote was based on the textbook thing, which wouldn't have been believable when he was scumreading the textbook thing anyway. After all from his point of view the leading wagon (me, L-2) was on town already with at least two townies on it, so I can see him rather shading people on the wagon than the person who gets wagoned anyway, particularly because Luca looked kind of contradictory and vulnerable (unlike profii as example).

Otherwise I can see him being hesitant to scumread or join the wagon, because his partner was already on me and it would just draw even more attention with an early L-1 wagon and both scum being on it, which would indicate scum!flippy. However as flippy wasnt that present with his scumreads/votes during the day it's hard to compare as Kraeg as example never mentioned Luca again (when flippy was on Luca with his vote) and later flippy was just scumreading Kraeg.

[Skellen]

While I am at it, here is imo maybe some evidence which solidifies town!Garmr. Got the idea when I was looking at the newbie setup that Billy has linked. It's mostly Kraeg's role.

While we seem to be in the A3 setup of the newbie queue we aren't playing with the rules of the newbie queue here. In newbie games all scum PRs are automatically multitasking, so they can carry out both kill and ability simultaneously. I checked Jackal's op if he had a similar rule about this, but there isn't any rule regarding this matter. And Kraeg only flipped Roleblocker, so without multitasking modifier.

Kraeg's push on Garmr during D1 felt genuine as I thought he wanted to use the momentum on the wagon to get a lynch on Garmr through 8with Luca there was at least one townie who might have joined the wagon again). And considering the importance of a roleblock for scum in a 9p game (well, usually) I think it's very unlikely that Kraeg would bus his own partner who he would need to do the nightkill, because he wouldn't be able to perform the roleblock in the night then (well and the fact they would be one man short too). Assuming people play rationally, which I would at least assume in Garmr's case.

[Skellen]

Also, I doubt this will persuade anyone, but I 100% would not kill Norwegian N1. In fact it's unlikely that I NK him at all. I want him in LYLO with me as scum. Turns out his focus on Kraeg was right, but the guy seemed to have problems getting off anyone that scumread him. That's an asset for scum in LYLO.

He was scumreading both of you though and he was pretty pursuing while doing so as we saw with Kraeg, because ultimately he always came back to his scumread. And he would have gotten some town cred with a Kraeg flip. And he literally had you as next suspect in case of a scum!Kraeg flip. I doubt scum!you would keep him around till lylo.