Mini Normal 2114: Game Over

[Auro]

You're smart, right? Surely you must infer that there can be town slots that are an impediment to town's winning chances?

[Auro]

@Insomnia That's cool, man. Would you have time to answer any questions I might throw? It's okay if you don't.

[Auro]

They'll come in a while!

Also, in my neighborhood many hours ago, I had a little conversation with Looker where I was saying that hostility and calling others dumb wouldn't help her as town; she said I could be scum for this, and I asked why. She said she wouldn't tell me my "tells" because I'd know not to commit them, or something like that, and didn't talk afterwards.

[Auro]

Does *Flavor Leaf* of all people hardbus the crap out of a partner D1 and cause their replace-out?

[Auro]

Lol so FL killed Titus for the lulz?

[Auro]

Was it the "you haven't read the thread, otherwise you'd have sorted me by now" thing?

[Auro]

Hard game

[Auro]

Flavor, Looker's making zero attempt to be townread.
Also, there's literally zero reason for her to NK Titus... Who was working with her and didn't suspect her.

Pretty sure it's not Looker.

[Auro]

I was thinking about the Titus kill. While DP claimed neighborizer+rolecop, DP was saying a lot of things out of tilt and I think scumsomnia would've taken that with a grain of salt.

Titus actually affirming that is different though, and given Insomnia thought she claimed *cop*, it seems obvious that he would make a night kill.

Interestingly, when I pointed out that she's a rolecop, he said the remaining scum was bad at mechanics, or something of the like... Hmm.

[Auro]

Insomnia, can you give me a convincing reason for why Bob would lynch his partner with the possibility of multiple investigative roles, when he could've voted me?

[Auro]

If you didn't pick it up as town after a whole day of play and the flip, I think you can make that mistake as scum too, Insomnia.

If you think Bob could be scum, I'd still like you to answer why he'd bus when there are invests left.

[Auro]

Titus was a fucking cop

Why are we even discussing the nightkill here and who would make it? Everyone would.

She was a rolecop, not really much of a mechanical threat unless there's a traitor?

Not much of a threat? 2 clears is not enough of a threat? A potential red is not a threat? Lmfao

Here's me pointing out that she was a rolecop, and you still thinking she was an alignment cop.

[Auro]

Do you claim that town!FL doesn't do these kinds of lol re-evaluations?

[Auro]

Of course it matters who gets lynched - lynching a partner, even if dead weight, is largely inferior to lynching the counterwagon or even just vanity voting, given the potential for investigatives. And he didn't just park and piss off - he detailed his townread of me and kept calling Pine out for prodging.

My purpose of asking was that if you believe as town that it's plausible Pine's partner would bus him in this gamestate... You would do that as scum, and thus that weakens the towncred you get for the lynch.

[Auro]

Also, who does he even kill from his PoV other than titus?

Me? After I literally posted saying FL is obvtown and dead! Auro would treat pushes on him as scumclaims, and if he makes it to F3 he still shouldn't be lynched?

You're also a decent lynch candidate for FL.

[Auro]

Why would I mind my dead weight scum bud dying when I can get huge credit anyway.

I'd most likely bus him effortlessly and ride that til late game. He's useless for me as a scum buddy. I'd love to bus him.

Your own words, Insomnia.
Your arguments equally apply to FL and Bob.

[Auro]

If Auro’s scum he’s probably bussing his non-posting scum partner anyway

As long as the pool remains exactly the same and we lynch there tomorrow, I’m fine with laying Pine to rest.

What changed regarding your read of me?

[Auro]

Pine is at 4 votes, there's no counter wagon

And yet...

Looker is trying to push a TFL wagon.
Titus is trying to push a TFL wagon, and is now trying to push a Rex wagon.
You're trying to divert to an Auro wagon.

All three are viable Pine partners.

LMFAO

This was your reaction when I posted that I was Pine's counterwagon.
Your theory was that we were bussing, of course I'd be a counterwagon to Pine - I don't see why my being a counterwagon is suddenly reason to focus elsewhere now.

[Auro]

As scum does he have many other options to take? After locking in to his townreads of Rex and TFL.

[Auro]

Insomnia, I agree with the rest of your townreads. I think you individually have the highest scum equity right now especially because of the night kill, so I think you're the correct lynch today. If you flip green, town can go Bob, and if that also flips green, maybe consider FL!scum more seriously. How does this proposal sound?

[Auro]

As scum does he have many other options to take? After locking in to his townreads of Rex and TFL.

I mean, there are three mislynches he needs as scum. TFL/Rex aren't candidates. That leaves you, me, Looker and Bob. A Looker lynch today because "she's anti-town" allows for a Bob->FL trajectory later. So he has to lynch Looker, and also scumread at least one of {Flavor, Auro} to win the game.

I wonder why he'd go for you instead of me, though, when he had established yesterday that I could be Pine's partner and bussing him. If I'm that scary, might as well just lynch my yesterday, right?

[Auro]

Thing is, Auro, I gave Insomnia a win on a pedestal earlier with my looker bob fuzzy chain

And he was pretty chill with it until I started asking to sell me on Insomnia town, and then he said he'd flip you if Bob was green.

[Auro]

I agree on Looker/TFL/Rex.
I also think you're scum.

[Auro]

The only thing you got is that weak accusation of me forgeting Titus’ role which is just bogus, no way you’ve ever killed a town as scum only based on “I knew he was a PR, which PR i could give less of a fuck”

That, and a PoE, Insomnia.
Looker/TFL/Rex we all agree are town.
FL is town by meta and play.
I'm town fmpov at least.

Leaves {Bob, Insomnia} and you're definitely the scummier of the two.

[Auro]

It's a suboptimal NK for Flavor Leaf, unless he just wants to eff with us. Which I can actually imagine, but no way in hell he busses his partners that way.

*If* this is actually FL's scumgame here, FL is just... crazy.

[Auro]

The level of ignorance you had for that one particular mechanic (cop vs rolecop) was revealed in the exchange I quoted earlier - when I said rolecop isn't a threat and you replied that it obviously is. That means it's likely you'd make the same mistake interpreting "rolecop" that way as scum.

Well, even if you believed I could catch you easily, you'd still want to kill the cop.

FL's optimal kill is someone who can plausibly push him in later days and wields enough charisma to pose a threat. You kept mentioning you'd re-evaluate FL if he makes it to LyLo. You held enough sway in thread to get the lynch you wanted.

I would have also been a decent candidate kill - FL likely knows that my position on "obvtown reads" can change depending on circumstances, and he also knows I can get difficult to lynch as town. Killing me

locks in

that FL is town - he can simply requote my EoD3 posts to anyone suspecting him. My death also makes Titus/Looker/Insomnia easy pushes - especially Titus after I directly said she was scumclaiming.

What does a Titus kill achieve for FL? Nothing. She wasn't really pushing him. Her kill forces me to re-evaluate. TFL gets lightly incriminated, but FL didn't even push that angle. The winpath he's taking if scum is a lot harder to navigate than if he killed you or me.

[Auro]

Not if you just *assumed* rolecop means cop. There was no question of ambiguity in our exchange. If you doubted that rolecop may not be the same as alignment cop, sure, but it's clear you didn't.

It's not a matter of comprehension - maybe you would - but it just seems plausible enough that it's a fitting explanation for the kill.

Lynching you is the plan. You're convinced that the other scum is in {FL, Bob, Auro} - pick two of us to lynch after you.

[Auro]

Ever since when is ignorance for PRs scum indicative.

When it's the only possible explanation for an otherwise poor night kill!

[Auro]

You'll need something better than a supposition to lynch me!

Well, I share your townreads, and you're in my PoE... given we have three mislynches, even if I was suspect of Bob and FL (like you are) that leaves {Bob, FL, Insomnia} as my PoE, similar to how {Bob, FL, Auro} is yours - is that not reason enough to lynch you?

[Auro]

Spoiler: Kanna's EoD1 progression

VOTE: Gjt

I just meta'd Gjt too and I'm p sure he apologizes for inactivity as both town and scum. He does explain himself more as scum though

actually, idk I can maybe see his thought process being genuine? UNVOTE: for now

^Rex, there’s one day left

VOTE: Gjt

My reasons for voting Nom have always been the same your assuming it's because of the ISO, but at no point have I said that's my reason and was just curious as to why, I did not like the reaction which is why I voted.

@Nicho; does this change your opinion at all?

Willing to vote nomnom tomorrow since it looks like we aren't going Gjt

@Rex, is nomnomnom your top scumread then?

Tbh, I am kinda skeptical of Gjt's PR soft; it seems p convenient and I didn't like how he covered his bases earlier with the "I might not die tonight and there might be a roleblocker"

Sorry, I've been really busy today. Some stuff here wasn't nice to come back to though.

VOTE: nomnomnom I agree with going here to be safe. If Gjt lives tomorrow, we can just keep an eye on him

He seems to want Gjt lynched, but FL's hardpushing the crap out of Nomnomnom... so joins it. Hm.

Why me over bob / fl?

Because you have far more scum equity than either.
You would bus your partner, and nightkill Titus.
Bob wouldn't bus his partner in all likelihood, and the Titus kill makes little sense for him.
FL wouldn't bus his partners this hard all game, and the night kill makes

absolutely

no sense for him.
Insomnia >> Bob > FL.

So you're first I guess?

[Auro]

Indeed, I might be conf-biased. However, I'm not going to place my vote right now.

It's hard to believe your "anti-bus meta" when you continuously called Pine "dead weight", and said you'd "mostly likely bus him effortlessly" earlier.

Sure, I'll leave you alone - do your thing.

[Auro]

TheFuzzyLurker, where are you?

[Auro]

I see Nicholai only crumbed his role and didn't claim it, while Gjt did - interesting, why was Nicholai killed N1 then?

[Auro]

Is there ever a point where we lay all our cards on the table and post a scum-town spectrum? Or is that too much WIFOM?

I'm all for transparency. Don't think WIFOM should be a reason to hide thoughts anyway *shrug*

[Auro]

Okay, so let's look at ScumosaurusRex's plan.

1. Titus neighborizes+rolecops him and finds him to be vanilla.
2. He calls Auro towny.
3. He talks about a Titus/Pine scumread and promises to elaborate later.
4. He hammers his buddy Pine, with a couple hours left to deadline.
5. He NKs Titus, who he said he suspected, and who I said scumclaimed.

What is his agenda?

He's super towny by tone, but I don't know if I can describe that easily - but if you're seriously considering the world where Rex is scum, do answer the above.

[Auro]

This game makes no sense unless it’s FL or Auro.

So you're townreading Bob now?

[Auro]

Titus is weird Kill unless there is a scum PR. Titus and me would be the obvious lynch today given how the lynch happened. I am still a good lynch
option given i was off both of the Nom and Pine lynch .

I struggle to see how this comes from scum!TFL, this is just suicidal.

[Auro]

It's fair to call them out for not participating, especially if they're town

[Auro]

I wonder, too.

[Auro]

Both of you are town, probably. Looker, I think Insomnia is highest scum equity right now given the NKs and play, what do you think?

[Auro]

I get you FL <3
But we should solidify our reads.

[Auro]

While Sausa's posts aren't impressive and he needs to put in more, everything else points to him being town.

I got the impression that Bob was parroting some arguments I made long ago, but I'm curious to see his full analysis and conclusion.

[Auro]

VOTE: Insomnia

[Auro]

Whoever scum is, they made suboptimal plays, and in Insomnia's case we have explanations for why. Insomnia, I apologize if you are in fact town. Barring FL, I'll follow any lynch you dictate for tomorrow.

[Auro]

*shrug* I'll worry about being wrong on that if I find myself in LyLo with FL. Sure, we'll lynch Bob if you flip town.

[Auro]

Man, Auro, if you’re scum expecting to lynch me in lylo....fuck

Why would I take you to LyLo?

[Auro]

Also, there are two other reasons I said that which I won't point out rn and don't have to do with any scumread on you lol

[Auro]

Auro i dont get why you think insomnia is scum

Tell me one slot for which the NKs and lynches make sense.

[Auro]

Auro explain your scum read on me.

>Explains otherwise suboptimal NKs
>Kanna's activity around Nom looks like a resigned bus
>Your bad scumread of FL
>Setting up lynches (Looker->Bob->FL, etc)
>Bad push on me yesterday
>Read/stance change on me from yesterday (Auro is Pine's buddy!) to today

[Auro]

@Mod, are prods due?

[Auro]

It's been nearly 2 days since Rex posted.

[Auro]

You honestly believe FL's just screwing around with us instead of taking one of the many more optimal strategies?

[Auro]

Bob>TFL>Looker>Rex>Flavor is where I'd stand if you were town.

[Auro]

In a world where you're scum and thought she's an alignment cop?

[Auro]

You can convince everyone else, because I'm not voting FL. Perhaps case him so people will sheep you after your flip. Or case me. I've sorted everyone else and they seem townier than you.

[Auro]

In what game does FL bus day one? I'll tell you what games.

Link me games where he's done this, and I'll bite

[Auro]

How do you apply meta, then?
If there's one consistent behavior over *years* of play it's unlikely they'll suddenly break it now, yeah?

As I said, if I find myself in LyLo with FL perhaps I'd give it greater thought.

[Auro]

Why are you so concerned about my townreading FL? After all, there are 4 other players you can convince about FL, no?

[Auro]

Hmm, actually Bob could plausibly be scum playing badly here. We could lynch him instead, I guess

[Auro]

Incorrect vote

[Auro]

So, everyone's voting but bob - why am I not surprised? Is he waiting until the last minute to hammer insomnia?

What does he gain from waiting for the last minute, over just leaving a vote there?

[Auro]

Which 2 reasons?

[Auro]

What do you expect town!FL would do? Townread you? Who should he be scumreading instead?

[Auro]

even if I’m his most confident town

Quote him saying you're his most confident town?

[Auro]

it’s a thing everyone sees with experience at some point.

Lol dude, I think I'm fairly experienced by now and they're not, FL's reads ARE a free flowing progression. Are you saying this is uniquely different from his town "free flow progressions"?

[Auro]

at least i know that you'll consider my opinion and not outright dismissing it. even if you act like this now, i know that my flip will have a huge influence on how you'll read FL afterwards

Perhaps. Then why fight your lynch so much now?

[Auro]

I had a read that if FL is alive by F3 then I'll probably reconsider him but I'll give him a pass right now

This is where I'm at

[Auro]

Will you BoP yourself on this read? If we lynch FL and he flips green, you get lynched tomorrow?

[Auro]

I would BoP myself on FL if we flip you first. That's like the only 2 possibilities.

maybe bob.

Lmao

[Auro]

If you're scum there's

no

winpath, FL>Auro>Bob simply won't happen - my death will mean a flash Insomnia lynch, always - and I'll make sure Rex/Looker/TFL agree to this.
If you're town, focus on casing your scumspects as much as you can, so the rest of town can use it after your flip.

[Auro]

I would BoP myself on FL if we flip you first. That's like the only 2 possibilities.

maybe bob

.

I think FL > Auro >

bob

wins the game ngl

Towncasing my

townies

is easier though, which I have

Sau /

bob

/ looker all cased.

The only one I could possibly be wrong on is like

TFL

, but if he doesn't flip scum, then it's one of you / fl for sure.

[Auro]

most of his analysis looks like he is making the points to reach a certain read rather than it being a free flowing progression. I can’t explain this unfortunately, it’s a thing everyone sees with experience at some point.

I do see it, but in your posts, not FL's
You're unwilling to accept a BoP and would are trying to find triple chain lynches.
You say you're not confident that town will lynch FL, when you also suspect me, Bob "if wrong", and TFL "if wrong".
You're playing for survivability and not town win-con.

And this is one of the reasons you're scum.

[Auro]

Rex, sheep me.
TFL, voting yourself is a terrible idea. Help me lynch Insomnia.

[Auro]

You're past the point where saying "Fine, BoP" me will save you, Insomnia

[Auro]

looker / sau most confident town reads

I agree with these townreads.

[Auro]

I have taken the decisions that will ultimately bring this town the win.

trust the process.

[Auro]

Sell you on TFL!town and then what?
Again, I'll be here to evaluate if I'm wrong, you're going to be dead - so you should be casing and convincing me for post-death.

[Auro]

Looker, why is Insomnia town?

[Auro]

I think TFL is town, though. I think you're scum.

[Auro]

Sell you on TFL!town and then what?
Again, I'll be here to evaluate if I'm wrong, you're going to be dead - so you should be casing and convincing me for post-death.

[Auro]

you're scum

[Auro]

Actually, apologies I'm treating you this way.
I just am pretty sure you're scum, man.

[Auro]

You're not town to me.

[Auro]

I'm sorry, man the NK was pretty damning. If it weren't for that mistake you set things up pretty well.

[Auro]

Auro explain your scum read on me.

>Explains otherwise suboptimal NKs
>Kanna's activity around Nom looks like a resigned bus
>Your bad scumread of FL
>Setting up lynches (Looker->Bob->FL, etc)
>Bad push on me yesterday
>Read/stance change on me from yesterday (Auro is Pine's buddy!) to today

That wasn't the only reason

[Auro]

votes on anks wagon

Dude stop looking at some D2 wagon, look at Insomnia's flail right now. He's scum. I can't believe no one else is seeing this.

[Auro]

Seems to be working, at least partially considering nobody else is killing him.

TFL's voting himself.
Bob suddenly wants to look at the Ank wagon.
Looker wants to lynch lurkers over scum, because scum is playing with conviction.
Rex just voted Looker and pissed off.

[Auro]

TFL, vote Insomnia and go

[Auro]

Which part of Bob's play don't you believe? Why do you townread insomnia, if you do?

[Auro]

Even with non-cooperative townies it's sorta game over for scumsomnia, if he kills us he gets lynched, if he keeps us alive we lynch him

[Auro]

And the only thing Auro has on me is a supposition that I’ve already explained why it’s bad.

I gave a plethora of reasons apart from the NK lol... Also, "PoE"

[Auro]

Both of us can't be scum.

[Auro]

Auro explain your scum read on me.

>Explains otherwise suboptimal NKs
>Kanna's activity around Nom looks like a resigned bus
>Your bad scumread of FL
>Setting up lynches (Looker->Bob->FL, etc)
>Bad push on me yesterday
>Read/stance change on me from yesterday (Auro is Pine's buddy!) to today

That wasn't the only reason

[Auro]

I'll take your scumhunting advice once you flip town

[Auro]

Because scum thought she was an alignment cop this game, and you always kill a claimed cop first

[Auro]

We can resolve that if insom flips town, which he won't

[Auro]

If it's not Bob or sausa, bravo to scum for keeping them alive. You did a good job of killing all the good players. We have a self-voting fuzzy, a non-reading rex, and a bob who only posts in grammatically incorrect and misspelled rhetorical questions. Talk about good aim with a sniper rifle.

Looker, that's the point of being scum, keep the best mislynches open. I find "bad town" towards endgame all the time.

I recently played this White Flag game. On the day before LyLo, there was a slot that was purely tunneling me and doing nothing else. The slot *refused* to re-evaluate at all, because they were "100%" on me being scum, and didn't do jack shit apart from calling me scum in a number of ways.

Scum tried to get that slot lynched, so they could set me up for LyLo. I not only had to push against their lynch, I actually offered -my own lynch- over theirs so my scumread could get lynched in LyLo.

Playing to mislynch "bad town" is exactly what scum set you up to do and is exactly what assists them in their wincon.

Besides all this, I think Bob is trying, at the very least. You should try looking at intent, rather than the grammatical construction.

Whatever equity he has is *far* outweighed by Insomnia's scum equity - who's giving his best to create a winning situation for himself. He's absolutely the correct and likely game winning lynch today. If we're wrong about that, sure; we can go Bob tomorrow.

[Auro]

UNVOTE:
FL, thoughts?

[Auro]

VOTE: Insomnia

[Auro]

Why do that when we can just lynch scum? An important part of townplay is working with other town, TFL. At least two of {Flavor Leaf, me, Rex} are town. Please hammer.

[Auro]

If you feel like you're terrible town, and this flips town, we'll fix that tomorrow. You have ample opportunity to gamesolve, since you know you're town. And I'll assist you!

[Auro]

@bob he probably thought Pine was dead weight and he could solo carry to endgame off the towncred. It's kinda unlikely TFL is pulling the bluff of the century.

[Auro]

Scumreads: Bob>Sausa>>Auro
Townreads: TFL>>FL

Looker's reads paraphrased from %ages from our neighborhood.

[Auro]

Interesting. Why do you think there's more than one scum left?

[Auro]

Pine is at 4 votes, there's no counter wagon

And yet...

Looker is trying to push a TFL wagon.
Titus is trying to push a TFL wagon, and is now trying to push a Rex wagon.
You're trying to divert to an Auro wagon.

All three are viable Pine partners.

Where's my paragon nom

[Auro]

Rex, you need to post more.

[Auro]

Flavor, Rex has good reason to NK Looker.
Both of us townread Rex.

Feel like Bob would've definitely killed one of us, and probably TFL too.

[Auro]

Fuzzy might not be scum, though, in which case, I’ll lynch Bob today, and then deal with the dreaded Auro/Fuzzy/FL final 3 day, which is gonna suck.

Why do you think Rex would be the Night Kill?

[Auro]

VOTE: Rex

[Auro]

Please kill me and not Flavor!

[Auro]

Rex, you need to post more.

This was my previous post, though?

[Auro]

I meant townread in the past.

[Auro]

I did. You scum?

[Auro]

Counterclaim exactly N3-N4 cop

[Auro]

Thing is, I'm also a night 5 cop, so scum better be scared whoever they are!

[Auro]

Nice!

[Auro]

Bob, why'd you NK Looker?

[Auro]

You bussed Pine, while I was calling FL obvtown and that FL should never be lynched, then kept both FL and me alive -- I wonder what you were asking for

[Auro]

Flavor Leaf was an obvious kill choice, yes.

[Auro]

@Insomnia, my apologies for lynching you!

[Auro]

That was the fakeclaim he had planned. He said it anyway, but he was lynched so might as well reveal the truth. He was hammered, it's not giving up

[Auro]

@Insomnia, my apologies for lynching you!

I don't. We got the scum in the end by lynching him. He was coming after me hard after I gave a correct game winning solve path.

Yup, pushing you was super fishy. Yeah yeah Don Corleone and stuff but no way you were scum this game!

[Auro]

Sorry for lashing out at Rex. I think Rex was obvtown yeah but then he just kept popping in without details and I started getting worked up.

@Flavor I love it when we're town and discover each other so fast haha

[Auro]

@Bob you shouldn't have bussed Pine at that time, bussing is almost always sub-optimal.

[Auro]

oh hey I can finally talk about why I almost siteflaked

?

[Auro]

back in day 3 i was going to hammer invis but pine unvoted just before i was going to.

With you being killed night 3

This would've been much better for you yeah
FL led all the scum lynches lol

[Auro]

It's still locked.

[Auro]

Hey Bob, great attempt, man. If Pine didn't lurk out that much you had a great strategy!