In post 731, Umlaut wrote:
I mean, I thought you were probably town anyway
and
you're in a neighborhood with three other people at every one of whom is a better suspect than you are. But if that weren't enough, I just don't see you as scum failing to understand an enemy's power role hard enough to post something like "70% chance there is scum in the neighborhood, not 100%" only to take it back a couple pages later, and I don't see you faking it either.
(I actually thought you were saying there was a 30% chance Quick was just lying
and
there were in fact no scum in the nhood, which I thought was a weirdly high probability to assign to that but whatever)
K, I just like to hear people's reasoning when they "clear" me, and I realized that I haven't been doing enough in this game. I've been taught that you can never trust anybody in this game, so it's good to get reasons why people clear you in their heads.
And haha, no, I literally just misread what Quick was saying. Math wise, if you choose a random group of four people, with a 3/13 ratio, chances of choosing all town are (10/13) * (9/12) * (8/11) * (7/10) = roughly 30%. So 70% chance of there it containing scum.
Btw, I've been thinking about that more, on the off chance that Quick is lying!Scum, what does he have to gain? Prior to this claim there was a wagon on his slot, if Hoatac's reveal trigger to the scum that there is a neighbourhood, a quick false!Claim to being an informed townie stating that there is a scum amongst them would likely generate 4 mislynches. I looked at the timestamp, he had an hour before making his move, and his vote was on hoatac out of "reasons" already in literally the first vote of the game. However, this is really unlikely, and probably an even MORE unlikely scenario then Hoatac's claim that Zulfy/Brass leaked info to Quick's slot. But this gambit only works if NO SCUM is in this hood. So... 30% chance that he'll make this play if no scum were in the hood.
Super unlikely, but just a thought to keep in mind.