Mini Normal 2147 | Door Mafia | Game Over!

[Clair]

VOTE: Flair

L-3

This is now a serious wagon. Anyone not serious may flee like children now.

[Clair]

What exactly are you implying?

[Clair]

Three accounts? You only quoted from two.

[Clair]

Three accounts? You only quoted from two.

I made a mistake that betrayed my thoughts.

Do you normally keep secrets that you accidentally "betray" when you are town?

[Clair]

Claire voted flair, and if they are the same acct we should do the opposite of what they want.

Why do you think I'm the same account as someone else. Do you normally accuse people of breaking site rules as a scumtell?

[Clair]

Claire voted flair, and if they are the same acct we should do the opposite of what they want.

Why do you think I'm the same account as someone else. Do you normally accuse people of breaking site rules as a scumtell?

Are you going to ask me this question?

No.

[Clair]

Now that you mention it, Blair and Flair do have accounts that look similar to mine. Fan accounts maybe? I'm flattered.

[Clair]

VOTE: Blair Get rid of it

Let's accept that two players are impersonating me (which seems like an odd thing for anyone to do).

Can you explain why you would vote Blair over Flair?

[Clair]

But that doesn't make sense. Why would Blair create a fan account for me before I made mine?

[Clair]

I would never cheat to win a game.

Honestly,

the nerve of some people...

Blair, do you think Campbell voting his townread is a stronger scumtell than Campbell believing we cheated is a towntell? If not why not?

[Clair]

Scum have daytalk. Surely if Campbell were scum he would discuss this cheater's conspiracy with his buddies in private first before vomiting his thoughts upon the thread?

[Clair]

"Clair

and

Blair? This looks suspicious. I must interrogate them at once!"

I contend this is a minor towntell. Do you think your scumtell is stronger, or do you disagree that this is a towntell?

[Clair]

Maybe.

Given that he was just saying what I'm sure several were thinking

, I doubt he felt like he needed to run it by anyone.

This is exactly what makes it a towntell.

[Clair]

like, if he genuinely believed that any of Flair/Blair/Clair are alts of each other, why no mention of this in his earlier posts?

Yes, this is another angle that leads me toward Campbell as town.

yes, this.

as in, he saw Fred suggesting that Blair/Clair/Flair might be the same person, thought to himself 'i can use this', rubbed his scummy little hands together with glee and voted for Clair.

But then, why not the same thing for NPOM? Do you think scum NPOM looks at the momentary confusion and thinks "This is a wagon I can ride all the way to lynch!"? Scum would have to know he'd need better reasons long-term and that any cheating accusations would get resolved.

[Clair]

No, I'm assuming that scum only vote on wagons they will be able to defend long-term. Which is a reasonable assumption. Why would scum NPOM sheep a cheating accusation that's going to get resolved by a listmod?

[Clair]

No, I'm assuming that scum only vote on wagons they will be able to defend long-term. Which is a reasonable assumption. Why would scum NPOM sheep a cheating accusation that's going to get resolved by a listmod?

I disagree. I find scum routinely park their votes on weak wagons.

In that case, why would scum NPOM vote there at all? Why not keep his vote where it was? What's the scum motivation behind "Let me sheep this case"?

[Clair]

No, I'm assuming that scum only vote on wagons they will be able to defend long-term. Which is a reasonable assumption. Why would scum NPOM sheep a cheating accusation that's going to get resolved by a listmod?

I disagree. I find scum routinely park their votes on weak wagons.

In that case, why would scum NPOM vote there at all? Why not keep his vote where it was? What's the scum motivation behind "Let me sheep this case"?

Since this post received no rejoinder, I conclude that I've won the argument and expect Blair to change her vote any moment now.

[Clair]

Have a list of reads?

I do not.

Where're your heads at?

Right now the most active players have all read town and so I'm waiting for scum to make an entrance.

Read on one another?

Blair reads like misguided town.

[Clair]

I would contend nothing is inherently wolfy, but perhaps we approach the game differently.

P-edit: Have you forgotten that I am not, nor have I ever been, voting for NPOM?

No, traditionally when you have been defeated in an argument it is polite to say, "Thank you Clair, you clearly understand the game better than I do, I concede to your superior senses and will change my vote to match yours."

[Clair]

Looker is the kind of person who would vote someone who makes him laugh. This is perhaps the most suspicious thing to have happened all game.

[Clair]

Also, Firebringer's posts collectively still are not good.

His response to me once I started to kick off the game last night was extremely wolfy. If you missed that Clair, take a look, please. Blair's entire progression through and off of Fire also is concerning to me.

What about it am I supposed to note specifically? What moment are you referring to? It looks like generic RVS miscellany to me.

[Clair]

I'm null on Clair. Like I said, if NPOM flips scum later on, I'll probably count that against her. She also deliberately prolonged a meaningless conversation about list mods verifying unique players.

I haven't decided yet if she would entertain topics like regardless of alignment.

Fair.

I haven't played with Blair in forever so I have no greater meta understanding, which is why I'll lean on you both to read the other to an extent.

Oops! Spoilers. Regardless, if you're both wolves I imagine I won't live long anyway.

Carry on.

EBWOP: I haven't played with Clair* in forever.

Last time you played with Clair was there any angst on your join dates?

NPOM missing the subtext that Flair has already claimed to have never played on MS before. Not sure if this increases my townread or is an indication of mere forgetfulness.

Too many people are townreading Frederick for me to pressure him now.

VOTE: Flair

Thank you Clair, you clearly understand the game better than I do, I concede to your superior senses and will change my vote to match yours.

You're welcome Blair. I'm glad we've reached this understanding.

Why Looker?

Because of his identity to wallpost without substance. It gives the impression that he wants to look like he's having opinions without having opinions.

This is the most well-considered point anyone has made so far this game. NPOM looks pretty town.

[Clair]

Here are where my scumreads are at present.

Albert B. Rampage
stan1ey

I was going to challenge NoPowerOverMe's points about Looker, but those points are indeed valid. However, I do not have a scumread on Looker because in the very least he has been posting and I don't think his behaviour up to this point is alignment indicative.

Seriously? As soon as I move my vote EXPLICITLY because everyone was townreading Frederick, his wagon takes off?

VOTE: Frederick A Campbell

This answers my question of who would be the first to blink in moving off the Flair wagon.

[Clair]

VOTE: Looker

This is L-1. Anyone not serious may flee like Blair now.

[Clair]

Did Clair attempt to shade me for "blinking" on the Flair wagon in 495 and then blink on the Flair wagon in 497?

No. I shaded you in 495, and also shaded you in 497.

[Clair]

I also shaded you in [postnum]502[/postnum] if this helps you better understand.

[Clair]

Ay, my mistake. I foolishly assumed "blinking" on the Flair wagon meant leaving it, which you seemed to have done in 497. How silly of me!

Embarrassingly, I have yet to identify which part of that interpretation was in error - enlighten me?

You said you bowed to my superior judgment on Flair and would sheep me. Seeing as you've changed your mind, I can only conclude that you were lying.

[Clair]

But while we're soliciting explanations, you can confess why you voted Flair in the first place and what you got out of it, before I declare you as caught scum and hand you over to the proper authorities.

[Clair]

You can call it OMGUS, or whatever you want.

But my wagon being the largest at any point in-time should certainly draw pause. Considering A) Nobody voting me at that time had made any legitimate attempt to engage with me beyond Blair (FB actively avoided and ignored me), and B) Not one explained why exactly they suspected me, other than FB. Which, he only explained several hundred posts after the fact, and could be boiled down to him not liking me for taking the game seriously.

(Which in my experience isn’t an offense, but clearly you all play very differently than I do.)

The objective here is to drive up a wagon and see who blinks first and for what reasons, like a game of chicken.

[Clair]

Ay, my mistake. I foolishly assumed "blinking" on the Flair wagon meant leaving it, which you seemed to have done in 497. How silly of me!

Embarrassingly, I have yet to identify which part of that interpretation was in error - enlighten me?

You said you bowed to my superior judgment on Flair and would sheep me. Seeing as you've changed your mind, I can only conclude that you were lying.

It does not require a particularly careful reading of my progression there (since I directly stated it) that I only departed from my Frederick vote because I wasn't getting sufficient support for it to mount a viable wagon.

It also does not require a very careful reading of the thread (because, again, I outright stated it) to see that multiple people immediately voted for Frederick afterwards - a significant change in circumstances!

You got me.

Can you please describe the scum motive behind me applying my vote consistently with my stated intentions, so that the rest of the Town can see how well you got me?

This explains why you jumped off Campbell and back onto Campbell but not why you jumped on Flair in the first place. So please answer the question again, less snark this time.

[Clair]

The objective here is to blink, and see who keeps driving up the wagon, like a game of hot potato.

[Clair]

What are you two attempting to achieve here?

This is so painfully a town post, there's no reason for scum to intervene here in my argument with Blair, whether Blair is scum or not.

[Clair]

Flair, why are you on Looker? You made it sound like you had some more serious reason, but when you originally voted it looked like you were sheeping my observation from 375.

[Clair]

I’m curious to see what Blair learned by putting my wagon at the top. What does he think of those voting for me. What has he thought of my reaction. All that good stuff. Otherwise I think it’s nothing more than going through the motions.

You want to interrogate Blair in a post addressed to me?

[Clair]

I’m curious to see what Blair learned by putting my wagon at the top. What does he think of those voting for me. What has he thought of my reaction. All that good stuff. Otherwise I think it’s nothing more than going through the motions.

You want to interrogate Blair in a post addressed to me?

It was a thought born in lieu of your suggestion that Blair and everyone else on my wagon was voting me as a means of grading the thread’s and my reaction.

I was hoping he’d respond.

What’s the issue here exactly?

No issue, I was just wondering why you'd pick Blair to ask when you were in the middle of a conversation with me.

[Clair]

My opinion on Looker is a weak scumread. This may or may not change as Looker continues to post more and we see how people feel about the Looker wagon being so high up. It's still too early in the phase to say much more than that.

I have no strong opinions on Sakura or Firebringer. If I was to canvas for a second scumread, I might look toward ABR. But at this stage I'm comfortable with a few townreads (Campbell, NPOM, Clair, Flair).

[Clair]

Thank you Blair, you clearly understand the game better than I do, I concede to your superior senses and will change my vote to match yours.

VOTE: Alfred B. Rampage

[Clair]

In all seriousness, ABR looks so bad for refusing to elaborate here that I am a little concerned by it. I almost want to write off his argument with Blair here as "Scum v. Scum" because it's so obviously absurd. But let's file that away for today as conspiracy raconteuring.

[Clair]

If it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck...

So is Blair scum or no?

What I mean is that ABR's progression here is so preposterous it's almost too preposterous: voting for a case on which he won't elaborate, then claiming it was RVS, then claiming noticing that contradiction is scum. This is too ridiculous, why is it even an argument? It's possible this is town ABR not caring or throwing out some elaborate reaction test, or that ABR is scum and skipped straight to the part where he outs himself.

But I can also imagine, in a paranoid corner at the back of my mind, ABR deliberately being this obtuse so he and a scumbuddy could get into a contrived argument. It's not a theory to act on just yet but is something I will keep in mind for future phases.

[Clair]

VOTE: Blair

This kind of came out of left field. Whats going through ur head

Flair: I too would like to know why you are voting Blair when you have complained that Blair is the only player you have been able to talk with in real-time to your satisfaction.

[Clair]

So, according to you, we either keep you alive because you are "too valuable late in the game", or lynch you as scum and you "win".

This sounds like an appeal to authority or appeal to emotion, or both.

NPOM is right. It does not matter how valuable ABR is as town if he is, in fact, scum.

[Clair]

here is a reads list with general vibes so far
Town: [in order of strength]
Sakura - mentioned earlier she got dat town

ass

i mean feels. fl her interactions.
ABR - the pure rage dynamite house that is ABR. He gonna rock this game like a hurricane i got that feels.
Looker - Idk. Doesn't seem like he is just making shit up. So thats points to him.
Blair - She doesn't really scream town but i enjoy her posts so i say town
NPOM - I like he wants to sheep my tr sakura. Don't like him fighting abr. He is prolly pro town this game.
Flair - I think i should townread him harder. He annoys me in those ways only a person that can be town usually can. altho thats prolly personality conflicts.
Null:
gobbles - like that he scumreads me. Don't like it feels weak.
Clair - This person is in this game. Has a thing for Blair. Might be scum.
stan1ey - Who dis
Fredrick A Campbell - hard to get a grasp on what he is doing or thinking.
Flavor Leaf - how does one read this guy again
SCUM LEAN-

iamausername - generally don't find his posts useful

This list feels so safe that I am mildly suspicious of it. Not only does it avoid taking any hard stances but I think it avoids addressing many of the controversies that set the pace for the day. (Including: Campbell and NPOM pouncing on my "cheating," Blair vs. ABR, Looker being run up to a high wagon and writing as if he was about to be lynched, etc.)

[Clair]

Michael Jordan didn't win a championship his first 7 years. Everything worthwhile takes time, including theory development. You've lived your life looking for easy answers because you haven't found the inspiration or committed the time to attain greatness. If I have something I want you to know, I'll post it right here. For now, what I want you to know is that Blair is scum.

I've explained why.

I may change my mind later or I may not. You may vote whichever way you like, and all of it will help me break this game apart like Bane did Batman's back.

[Clair]

My opinion on Looker is a weak scumread. This may or may not change as Looker continues to post more and we see how people feel about the Looker wagon being so high up. It's still too early in the phase to say much more than that.

I have no strong opinions on Sakura or Firebringer. If I was to canvas for a second scumread, I might look toward ABR. But at this stage I'm comfortable with a few townreads (Campbell, NPOM, Clair, Flair).

I am still comfortable with this townlist, but now I think I'd like to lynch ABR or Firebringer, no RVS about it. Firebringer just avoided my poking at his lazy reads list by turning it into a vote for me, and ABR apparently has discarded his objectively amazing skill that had lead him to 1v1 Blair just a moment ago.

[Clair]

ABR apparently has discarded his objectively amazing skill that had lead him to 1v1 Blair just a moment ago.

No respect whatsoever for my game lol

If you believe someone is so good they can catch scum in the first 20 pages, I've got some bad news.

It takes time and inspiration. Skill alone isn't enough.

Mhm, so your Blair read was wrong because it was page "20", and now that it's page "21" your read on me is... better?



This is a troll, I think I can comfortably ignore everything coming out from this account now.

[Clair]

That being said:

VOTE: FireBringer

I think we're past the RVS stage of mindlessly driving up wagons and sheeping whatever idle suspicions strikes players' fancies. I'm going to push this wagon now, for a few reasons:

* Firebringer's reads and inquiries have been lazy and safe for someone who's posted this much.

* Firebringer deflected the chance to respond to this point when I raised it by turning around and voting me.

* Most of the big arguments so far have felt town-driven, so I'm instinctively more suspicious of players who haven't really been in them.

[Clair]

I support wagons on me. Good work Clair.

Not even going to call it OMGUS? I'm disappointed in you.

[Clair]

I support wagons on me. Good work Clair.

Not even going to call it OMGUS? I'm disappointed in you.

I am the worst player here.

I don't really know you enough to say and don't enjoy seeing people criticize themselves so aggressively. You do enjoy playing mafia and have been playing it for some time? Because I don't really believe you are really that "bad".

But if you're town, please work a little more with me here, because "I am the worst player here" is not an argument that would make me reconsider lynching you.

[Clair]

Looker was actually at L-2. I was baiting someone to announce intent and to judge Looker's reaction. Nobody wanted to jump on (not so unusual for this early in phase), and Looker's pre-"hammer" last testament read fairly null.

[Clair]

@Looker:

I don't typically like readslists, I think they are an easy way to look busy and never as consistent as people want. People tend to remember readslists very strongly which I think encourages people to misunderstand each other. They can be useful as a sort of last will when I expect I'm going to die.

I prefer to townhunt and be vocal about my townreads. Then it becomes easier to develop a strong scumread or two, which are the only cases I think are seriously worth pushing.

[Clair]

NPOM is sheeping Sakura who is sheeping ABR who is sheeping me.

I like it.

@Clair

What do you think of all of this?

Following that chain, which player is the wolf? I understand you may have given reads on several of these players prior (I know you're voting for FB currently), but I'd appreciate another look within the context of several sheeping another.

I think several players have consolidated on me because out of { Clair / Blair / Flair } they like me the least, which isn't saying much because I'm not being compared to the game at large. I don't take it personally. This will all blow over when the town realizes that ABR is not the best player in the world.

The scum here is still Firebringer, I don't think NPOM has a scum motive to wagon me when he was safe where he was. Sakura I'm less sure.

[Clair]

I actually believe I like you the best out of the Air-Club

All right, I make it a point not to scumread anyone who townreads me Day 1.

Tell me, how does that compare to the rest of the town? How do the Clair knockoffs look next to everyone else? (Much more fashionable I suppose.)

I think several players have consolidated on me because out of { Clair / Blair / Flair } they like me the least, which isn't saying much because I'm not being compared to the game at large. I don't take it personally. This will all blow over when the town realizes that ABR is not the best player in the world.

The scum here is still Firebringer, I don't think NPOM has a scum motive to wagon me when he was safe where he was. Sakura I'm less sure.

I feel this is an AtE, but I'll respond anyway. I'm not voting you because I like you least; I like [insert name here] least. I'm voting you because I can't make up my mind which one of {Flair/Firebringer/Clair} is scum and I trust your wagon the most.

Several players have explicitly noted that they are voting within the set of { Flair / Blair / Clair }. It's not AtE to notice that. Thinking some more I think half of the game is still just out of RVS, while the other half was active earlier and is a little further along. I'll give it some time before I treat this as a serious wagon.

Which begets the question -- why do you feel constrained between {Flair / Firebringer / Clair } ?

[Clair]

@ABR - That last game, when i was getting vibes you were using the "FL/SS new player" shtick to warp gamestate, I believe Flair is doing a similar play with this kind of stuff.

Do you think Flair is lying about skill level or just lying about being new to MS?

[Clair]

Do you give up when you feel you're not respected?

Why u ask?

Because I feel one of the -lairs hurt your feelings and you started intentionally trolling. You were making sense to me beforehand.

I didn't agree, but I could see you were trying.

This is an interesting theory but I'm not sure I buy it. Can you explain what about Firebringer made sense at first? Most of his early ISO looks like RVS and fluff until he starts sheeping/buddying ABR on Blair.

[Clair]

DO I NEED TO FUCKING SCUM CASE CLAIR FOR U PEOPLE

Yes. It would be the first such case and probably your first real contribution to the game. (Pity it will be a bad one.)

[Clair]

Tag yourself. I'm Regina.

[Clair]

NPOM, you look like a Voltaire. You know you want to sub out and sub back in with your shiny new alt, you know you want to.

[Clair]

Turns out I'm really scummy when you declare everything to be null and confess that there's too much material for you to simplify into a simple case without cutting most of it out.

[Clair]

"Why did Clair spend so much time talking to Blair?" No, no, keep going, I want to hear why it's scummy for two people who are online at the same time to talk to each other. I promise when I'm done French kissing Blair I'll still have appetite for you too.

[Clair]

"I failed to make a case on you, which increases my conviction that you must be scum!"

Please tell me if I am mis-repping you, I don't want to belittle your effort to read through someone's RVS shitposts and pass it off as meaningful content.

[Clair]

That's... a fair opinion, actually. Hm. If you make me feel bad enough about mocking you, the offer for a French kiss is still available.

[Clair]

I agreed with Firebringer's assessment of your commentary on the cheating topic. The rest seemed like a blazing pile of null.

I remember remarking something similar at the time. Any response in that area, Clair?

The idea that NPOM and Campbell thought we were cheating was a clear towntell. It was something I explained at the time and was worth arguing over.

[Clair]

I don't remember a lot of things. What's your point, in more plain English please.

[Clair]

Scum could be legitimately worried about cheating (not a town tell) if the alleged cheaters are all townies.

Right, and I then I argued that scum would have discussed it in daychat before immediately consulting the thread. It's an argument we already had. Not sure then why you're confused about it coming up.

[Clair]

Let's see then.

VOTE: Alfred B. Rampage

[Clair]

Spoiler:

[Clair]

I misinterpreted the term "like" as being personal - that struck me as AtE. I accept you response that I was wrong. I felt constrained beforehand because I thought you were equally scummy. I no longer do. I currently think you'd be the best flip.

You don't think I'm the most scummy but you think I'm the best flip. What associations do you plan to make from my slot?

[Clair]

Clair’s taunting after the fact I didn’t like. Looked more like a wolf taunting a villager for slipping by, than a villager attempting to resolve FB’s alignment.

Why do you think my taunts show scum intent? Why can't I just be a mean, vindictive bitter person?

@Claire - I am someone who’s been vocal about pushing FB this game. And I’ve reassessed. Have your thoughts changed after his entire progression? Do you believe he is a wolf who tried to push you, as a villager, and couldn’t yet stays put? Doesn’t add up in my mind.

I think it's a mild towntell, but only mild: he hasn't actually changed his vote at all. So FireBringer ends up pushing me and sort of comes down from a full tunnel, which looks like a town thought process as I figure it. But his vote is still on me, so he's in the same position he was in before except now he's getting townreads for it. This would be an easy act for scum to pull off since Firebringer only examined the early part of my ISO, focusing heavily on RVS. So can it really be called a "progression" if he ends up where he started?

However I still think it's a mild towntell for the reason I stated, and my attention is back to ABR now anyways.

[Clair]

ok, read the pages that appeared overnight. now feel like i have at least some kind of read on every player besides stanley, who is yet to exist.

I just played with scumABR and it feels drastically tonally different than his scum game, albeit,

I am now just on another side

, but he sheeped me all Day 1 in it, and by Day 3 I still caught him and his partner out as scum, but I got mislynched. I actually caught him on Day 2.
.

FL, could you clarify what you mean by the bolded?

Firebringer's 'i'm going to effort post to convince you all to lynch Clair' and getting disillusioned with his own case halfway through feels real town to me. just don't see scum Fire bothering to put the effort in to do all of that when he's been getting away fine with coasting to this point.

on the subject of coasting, i'd had a gut town feel from gobbledygook before, but 816 gave me bad vibes. does not feel like a question to try to figure out anyone's alignment. feels like a question to look like they're contributing and, as an added bonus, get some people to post about how town they are.
so i looked at their iso to try and figure out where my initial read came from, and found it to be incredibly lacking in substance. there's no effort to push anything, there's just a bunch of fairly meaningless questions with no follow up and the occasional random declaration that someone or other is town.

pop quiz everybody: without checking, can you tell me who gobbledygook is voting for right now? do you remember

any

of the votes gobbledygook has made in this game? if no,

why do you think that is?

UNVOTE:
VOTE: gobbledygook

This seems like a case of an early townread fading as the day progresses. That's fine enough. But how do you get from there to a scumread? Or, ah, are you scumreading gobbles, or is this a pressure vote?

[Clair]

I misinterpreted the term "like" as being personal - that struck me as AtE. I accept you response that I was wrong.

I felt constrained beforehand because I thought you were equally scummy. I no longer do.

I currently think you'd be the best flip.

You don't think I'm the most scummy but you think I'm the best flip. What associations do you plan to make from my slot?

I don't understand. How do I not find you the most scummy? You've had several interactions and your wagon and votes could be reviewed.

How else am I supposed to interpret the bolded above except as "I want your flip even if you're not the scummiest player"? You suggested I had used AtE (which I presumed was a scumtell), and then very acceptably decided that you were wrong (thus, one scumtell less). Is this not a softening of your scumread on me with a hardening of your resolution to lynch me? Or else, did you find some other reasons to scumread me? Either way I think you're leaving something out here.

[Clair]

I’m not particularly enthused by ABR and Claire wagons. But I will say if I had to choose I probably would vote Clair over ABR. Which is difficult to admit because I much, much, much prefer Clair’s company over ABR’s.

Really? Alfred is starting to warm on me. I might even prefer his company to mine at this point.

[Clair]

ABR, how's the weather in Albuquerque this season? I miss the mountains and the chile dearly... I haven't been able to go for many years now.

[Clair]

Clair’s taunting after the fact I didn’t like. Looked more like a wolf taunting a villager for slipping by, than a villager attempting to resolve FB’s alignment.

Why do you think my taunts show scum intent? Why can't I just be a mean, vindictive bitter person?

@Claire - I am someone who’s been vocal about pushing FB this game. And I’ve reassessed. Have your thoughts changed after his entire progression? Do you believe he is a wolf who tried to push you, as a villager, and couldn’t yet stays put? Doesn’t add up in my mind.

I think it's a mild towntell, but only mild: he hasn't actually changed his vote at all. So FireBringer ends up pushing me and sort of comes down from a full tunnel, which looks like a town thought process as I figure it. But his vote is still on me, so he's in the same position he was in before except now he's getting townreads for it. This would be an easy act for scum to pull off since Firebringer only examined the early part of my ISO, focusing heavily on RVS. So can it really be called a "progression" if he ends up where he started?

However I still think it's a mild towntell for the reason I stated, and my attention is back to ABR now anyways.

Did you have any follow-up on this Flair?

pedit: Would appreciate input from gobbles too, if he wants to talk about FireBringer.

[Clair]

Clair and Blair

If you try to explain away what FL is saying as something that makes any sense, I am disappointed in both of you.

This is pretty standard for Mafiascum meta. Just brush it off as noise.

[Clair]

Clair and Blair

If you try to explain away what FL is saying as something that makes any sense, I am disappointed in both of you.

This is pretty standard for Mafiascum meta. Just brush it off as noise.

<_<

So what can I hold players accountable for on D1? Nothing?

What follows is the ideal Mafiascum Day 1 town post:

Here me, Oh worms! Grovel before me! Behold my wisdom and despair!

I am the sun and the moon, the night and the day, more feared than the demons from the depths of the earth of the gods of the sky!

If I am town, behold! No mortal can comprehend my methods. Those who know me fear me, for they know they have already lost.

If I am scum, behold! No cunning will pierce my disguises. Those who know me fear me, for they know they have already lost.

Foolish worms! Challenge me and the ground will give out from under your feet. But accept my warning and even I may deign to teach you something, if you are able.

At this point, vote randomly until someone dies. Ideally, no one will pay attention to the flip, and so Day 2 can proceed exactly as did Day 1.

[Clair]

ABR, how's the weather in Albuquerque this season? I miss the mountains and the chile dearly... I haven't been able to go for many years now.

Personally, I prefer green chile over red, but I'll gladly eat both. A bowl of green chile stew with an egg under the wide New Mexico sky is my idea of a perfect day.

[Clair]

How is that fun? Genuine question.

Next game you two and I play, we’re doing it elsewhere. We can keep these jank phase lengths of you’d like but the audience here is suspect as Hell.

It's a funny thing, but when I think of the games I've been proudest to win and saddest to lose, they've all been here. Either you like it or you don't, but there's something exalted about Mafiascum's drawn-out phases and timetables. It's a slow-burning delicate drug. I've played on many different sites but Mafiascum always sets the standard, is site on which I think people give most expression to their personae. The arrogance is just a natural consequence, and with time almost becomes charming, like the boasts of children.

[Clair]

We're about 3 days in now and with 50 pages it's close to when the wagons will probably start really consolidating. I'm waiting for Looker to respond to my questions, some of the lurkers to post a little more, and ABR to tell me if he likes red or green before I make my final decision.

[Clair]

Have worked all day, skimmed the thread but don't feel like hunting-and-pecking a 15-page catch-up of quotes. Some assorted thoughts:

* Flair v. FL reads like a culture clash, right now I read it as Town v. Town, if it's Scum v. Town then FL would be the scum, but probably not, and it's definitely not Scum v. Scum.

* Would not say Mafiascum Day 1 is useless, no, I think Mafiascum treats Day 1 more seriously than any other site I've ever played.

* I thought I would feel better about the Looker wagon by now but it doesn't really reach out and grab me. I think his content is OK. (Actually, it seems like most of the accusations flying today are about "empty content," which has been directed at so many players that I don't think it's a useful concept anymore.) I would lynch Looker if it came to it, but I'm looking elsewhere for the moment.

* NPOM still reads town to me, I think in a few important interactions he's been stubborn in a way that scum would not be.

* Flair is still town.

* Blair I feel a little more ambiguous about, actually feels like she's coasting a little on sniping on easy targets (of which there are many). Would still put Blair in the town column for now.

* Feeling less sure about Fred, if only because he seems to have faded lately and has not given me any special reasons to renew my earlier townread on him.

* Sakura and iamausername both give me null vibes, I want to interact more with both.

So far I'm having fun at least, this is the first game in a long time I can remember where no one has been subbed out Day 1.

[Clair]

This seems like a case of an early townread fading as the day progresses. That's fine enough. But how do you get from there to a scumread? Or, ah, are you scumreading gobbles, or is this a pressure vote?

i mean, both? it's day one, i don't have a lot of incredibly strong reads right now. the particular post i highlighted read scummy to me, so i wanted to apply some pressure.

NPOM was and continues to be my strongest scumread, but
a) i'm not alfred d carnage, i am willing to concede the possibility that i might be wrong
b) at the time, nobody else seemed interested in pursuing that, so my vote there wasn't really doing anything productive

this proved wildly unsuccessful because nobody else saw what i saw, i guess. i mean, i still believe the information it has provided will prove more useful when we have some flips than continuing to tunnel on NPOM in the face of total indifference would have done, so.

Do you have any strong townreads? Gobbles isn't really moving anywhere and there isn't much of a case for lynching him; it feels as though your vote here is not doing what you'd hoped it'd do and I want to know what you want to do now.

[Clair]

Blair, since you're on: Please give me the elevator pitch argument for why Looker is the right lynch, without resembling the idea that he's kind of "empty" or not really asking questions. It seems clear to me now that everyone scumhunting in their different ways has been subject to this accusation, and I no longer find it very compelling.

[Clair]

There is certainly an air of opportunism to Blair's posts that I am keeping my eye on. I think that's very accurate.

I agree with the Fred read as well, his impact has declined. And if you think both Looker and NPOM might be villagers, Fred has certainly been the most advantageous in his approach to both.

I appreciate the villager read on me. But it also unfortunately doesn't help me resolve you any further. But it's the correct read you and Blair should both have. "Correct" in the idea that if you're both wolves, reading me villager and ignorning me is in your best interest, or if you're both villagers I've given you both every tool you need to read me accurately, and I know you're both experienced enough to realize such.

A self-absorbed read by me no doubt, but an accurate one. I imagine you'd only ever suspect me genuinely and believably if you were a villager.

A long time ago I realized that most players are town and there's no purpose in getting paranoid about the players you know being scum. You are radiating town energy and genuine culture frustration, townreading you is the

correct

read. Instead of faking a deep long probing investigation to help you see me scumhunting, I will merely townread and move on and be productive somewhere else.

NPOM is almost certainly a villager, I think you need to look past his short style. He has avoided the easy outs of townreading players who townread him and has been stubborn in key moments where he could have backed down.

[Clair]

Blair, since you're on: Please give me the elevator pitch argument for why Looker is the right lynch, without resembling the idea that he's kind of "empty" or not really asking questions. It seems clear to me now that everyone scumhunting in their different ways has been subject to this accusation, and I no longer find it very compelling.

Jog my memory what makes him most worth our collective focus in this moment, and not FL.

His posts are characterized by a barrage of surface level questions for other players with little to no subjective commentary from his own perspective,

which I believe is an easy way for scum to ostensibly participate in the scumhunting discussion without risking revealing internal inconsistencies by simply never speaking from their own perspective. (In fairness to him, he appears to be trying to correct this after I originally pointed it out)

I believe this characterizes most players in the game and do not find is a compelling point.

He also lists reads-lists that make no sense in comparison to the limited commentary he *has* provided (for instance, he most recently listed me as his #3 townread but even a cursory reading of his ISO shows he has been speculating on scum!Blair more consistently than any other player)

Why does this betoken a scum mindset and not a certain paranoia or inconsistency?

Finally, he and Albert conspicuously avoid analyzing each other, which should be a point in favor of scum!Looker for anyone else scumreading Albert.

Pause frame, record scratch. Do you really think you have a scum v. scum interaction worth discussing?

[Clair]

My point was exactly that. Reading me villager is the correct read, so it doesn't help me deduce your alignment based on your read of me. I normally have quite a bit of success catching wolves who fumble trying to case me, or villagers who genuinely suspect me out of paranoia or frustration. ABR could fall into the first category while FL might fall into the latter. Yet to be determined.

We agree on this point, so your rephrasing it feels a little antagonistic. I am going to choose to interpret this as agreement and thus say nothing more about it, if we already agree on everything there is to be said.

[Clair]

Pause frame, record scratch. Do you really think you have a scum v. scum interaction worth discussing?

You know how much I hate it when you pretend that something I've been saying for ages is brand new information...

Check Albert's and Looker's ISOs. Is it early to partner hunt? Yes. Have they conspicuously avoided taking stances on each other? Also yes.

Sure, OK, I pull up Albert's ISO and find he is willing to lynch Looker and is currently lynching Looker. Maybe this is all because you brilliantly cased the scumteam and Albert ran and cried and had to bus his teammate... Still: do you really think this scum v. scum interaction is meaningful, let alone compelling enough to put in a case?

[Clair]

My point was exactly that. Reading me villager is the correct read, so it doesn't help me deduce your alignment based on your read of me. I normally have quite a bit of success catching wolves who fumble trying to case me, or villagers who genuinely suspect me out of paranoia or frustration. ABR could fall into the first category while FL might fall into the latter. Yet to be determined.

We agree on this point, so your rephrasing it feels a little antagonistic. I am going to choose to interpret this as agreement and thus say nothing more about it, if we already agree on everything there is to be said.

You said “ Instead of faking a deep long probing investigation to help you see me scumhunting,” which felt strange to me because why would a villager ever fake a case to show they’re hunting wolves when they can just, y’know, hunt wolves.

Which is why I restated my initial point. I’ve found I have to be incredibly explicit here otherwise my words are misconstrued or misunderstood.

It certainly wasn’t meant to be antagonistic, I would never be antagonistic with you unless I made it incredibly obvious and light-hearted. This wasn’t one of those cases.

Right. I read you as town, so when you say that's the "correct" play and it doesn't help you sort me... There's not much I can do about that. I'm not going to pretend to probe you so you can see me probing you. This is why I say there's nothing left to say here.

[Clair]

Still: do you really think this scum v. scum interaction is meaningful, let alone compelling enough to put in a case?

Usually when someone says "Do you REALLY think..." they're implying something, provoking paranoia, or both.

Help me decide which one this is?

Yes, I really think it was worth mentioning, in a "Huh, this is a thing I noticed just now that fits my current solve and might persuade other people who are scumreading ABR to support this wagon, which is usually the point of presenting a case."

I'm implying that it's an unconvincing point, so obviously unconvincing that I wonder if you really believe it. Answers I'm considering:

* "No, not really, it's a weak point but I thought it added to my case."

* "No, not really, but I am unused to decent criticism that I'm getting sloppy."

* "No, not really, but I want to get a Looker lynch in and if I can tie it to an Alfred wagon maybe people will notice it more."

* "Yes, I do believe it, absolutely, and we'll lynch scum Day 1 this time, I promise."

[Clair]

"No, not really, but I am unused to decent criticism that I'm getting sloppy."

This should be a fun mental exercise.

Let's pretend this is the case. Does it seem like scum!sloppy or town!sloppy?

This is the question I am pondering to begin with. Asking me the question I am asking myself does not give me anything new to work with.

[Clair]

Ok, I don't believe it was sloppy

OK, so you did in fact believe it was a good point?

[Clair]

I got what I wanted, let's call this interaction a draw.

[Clair]

UNVOTE: Albert B. Rampage

I don't want this anymore. I've changed my mind for the moment and am willing to lynch Fred:

VOTE: Freddrick A. Campbell

[Clair]

Clair, your new vote is weird. Why are you being weird?

Feeling cute, might delete later.

[Clair]

What a terrible lynch. I logged in from a very busy work day just to say that.

Right now I want Sakura and Firebringer. Looker I am not sure I want anymore. Iamausername has been let off easy and I want to see more there. I am of two minds on Fred but listening to the head that says he's worth a lynch.

[Clair]

The reason it's a terrible lynch is that Stanley has nothing particularly scummy about him and will give no good info on a flip. A straight wagon from nothing to lynch is terrible to analyze in later phases.

[Clair]

stanley/clair/iamusername

That's the scum team.

VOTE: Clair

Just a terrible vote too, not just because it's on me. Remember Firebringer petered out on his case on me and got townread for it. But given a chance to Lynch me again he does.

[Clair]

VOTE: Stan1ey

Great, so why are we doing this?

A good question, why did you do this Blair?

[Clair]

There’s a scum in the people that know me, I can feel it based on how this gamestate is

I had a similar thought: that is, the players I think are in your "friend group" (you / Albert / Sakura / Firebringer / Looker ) are giving me more problems reading than many of the players outside it.

[Clair]

Look at Albert trying to salvage his bad lynch by softing. Maybe we should have lynched there after all.

[Clair]

Let's lynch Albert. If he's scum, we just eliminated the most powerful mafia threat in existence. If he's town, then we can trust that he really does have a game-solving plan, and we can follow it to conclusion without any fear of wifom.

VOTE: Albert B. Rampage

[Clair]

Remember, Albert has a powerful plan that will completely destroy the scumteam. The only thing that could prevent town from winning this game is if we refused to follow it. Therefore, lynching Albert removes all opposition to his plan and we can finally execute it in total security and peace of mind.

[Clair]

Albert's cunning is so great that he has actually cleverly confused his stan1ey mislynch with a mislynch of "midway," a player not actually in this game. This has thrown the scumteam into a total panic. Trust the plan! #WWG1WGA

[Clair]

I feel I should make it explicit at this point that I have played hundreds of games on MafiaScum under different accounts, am not an alien to site meta, and am not voting Albert just because I'm too basic to understand How Things Are Done Here.

[Clair]

do you guys think Clair or Blair is more likely scum?

Blair. Good question.

[Clair]

Clair, ur basic.

Oh no!

[Clair]

Flair, votato is a good guy. I promise if you take a breath and don't take your anger out at other players out on votato, things will go a lot better. I really want this because right now you're maybe my biggest town read.

[Clair]

i also agree with gobbles/abr that looker was a vigi kill.

If there's a vig I would support them claiming now.

If no one claims I'm going with Flair's theory that scum were PR hunting, which is really the most plausible explanation.

[Clair]

VOTE: abr how are we ignoring how abr was the one who came out smelling like shit from yesterday's wagon, was pushing a slot until it quit, and then seamlessly began pushing elsewhere? I have to admit, i have not read most of day 1, but that seems fucking strange.

Can someone tl;dr day 1 for me? What are some key pages? I read maybe 10 pages leading up to the lynch so far

Day 1 was { Clair / Blair / Flair } forming an axis of mutual suspicion against { Firebringer / Flavor Leaf / Albert } in an etch-a-sketch kaleidoscope of almost every possible wagon being pushed at some point. Personalities clashed. Looker was a popular wagon twice and might have been the compromise lynch before Stan1ey got lynched, maybe the only player who hadn't encountered any significant pressure before his wagon got run up.

I would at least read the first 20 pages, which I thought were good fun and are probably pretty representative. There were really a lot of different wagons so I'm not sure I pick out any standout moments.

[Clair]

Flair, votato is a good guy. I promise if you take a breath and don't take your anger out at other players out on votato, things will go a lot better. I really want this because right now you're maybe my biggest town read.

that's interesting. Thanks. I didn't realize you know me that well. Have i played with alts of yours, or is this just based on two games?

We have played before on another alt of mine.

[Clair]

Votato, maybe also look at Albert's ISO and read whatever pages are around where he first starts actively posting. Page 12+ or so. Albert's tone ended up setting up a lot of the arguments of the rest of the phase. On a similar note, if I had to summarize the case on him right now, it would be:

"Albert refuses to put his thoughts clearly, and argues with wild contradictions. He acts as if this is all just his style and within his meta, but his flip-flops have flop-flipped so wildly that it's worth questioning if he is really just 'Too Wolfy To Be A Wolf'."

[Clair]

my plan is always to put pressure on, I don't expect townies to just start hammering without a claim wtf?

The aliens are so basic.

Flair/Blair/Clair are just voting together as a bloc without any scumhunting because they are friends outside the game. this is getting ridiculous.

REPLACE OUT

[Clair]

u 3 have been like mostly on same wavelenght and a coalition like me/abr/fl were a coalition yesterday.

Idk this game just turned into a really stupid affair.
I don't know if mass bans needed for these shit replace outs or what. I am not gonna just say they are all town and so annoyed with abr tempted to just vote him.
So dumb.

On a personal level, I think you're cool and would play again with you. Not really sure what else to say to salvage the fun from this game here.

[Clair]

UNVOTE: ABR

I still want to lynch this slot but do not want it at L-1 right now.

[Clair]

I vote we all take a break, wait for some substitutions, and try to come back and have a little fun when tempers have cooled. I don't think we have anything to discuss that's really all that

new

from what we were discussing yesterday, and more apathy and flash posting is just going to drive the good substitutes out of the conversation.

[Clair]

Hon hon hon!

[Clair]

Vig is moderately common, but usually restricted somewhat. Doctors are a little rarer, usually they're considered very strong during setup review. Jailkeeper is more common. I've also seen some nurses.

The Looker kill is still an odd kill, but scum believing he crumbed a PR is much more plausible, right now, than believing that there were two kills but one got stopped.

[Clair]

Informed Townie is not a Normal role, thus cannot be in this setup, and was probably a joke. I also don't think 1978 was a slip.

I could hear a case on Gobbles though, he's in my POE now that we're waiting on a few subs.

[Clair]

On the one hand gobbles has been a slot in the back of my mind I have wanted to poke and prod.

On the other hand, I am not sure how much he just looks more attractive to me now that the players I wanted have all subbed out. I don't want to prejudice myself here.

I maintain let's wait and see what comes.

[Clair]

VOTE: Clair

L-1

This is now a serious wagon. Anyone not serious may flee like children now.

[Clair]

VOTE: Clair

L-1

This is now a serious wagon. Anyone not serious may flee like children now.

Your avatar is perfect too, had me for half a moment there.

For anyone not amused by this game I express my deepest condolences, this game has had some of the funniest moments in a game I've played in years.

[Clair]

Yes that was a joke lmao

I don’t know who or what to take seriously anymore.

Gotcha.

By the way: the reason this was an obvious joke is that 1/4 names will always be town. Unless, for some awful bastard reason, there were 4 scum in this game, which I would consider totally impossible on the Normal Queue.

[Clair]

So guess what.

Zlair is Flavor Leaf.

How do i know?

June 14 -

Mini Normal 2135 - Door Mafia

Moderator:

GeorgeBailey

Status:

Day 2, 83 pages

Replacing:

Albert B. Rampage

Never mentioned Flavor Leaf for replacement. Because he replaced out and went into an alt.

VOTE: Flavor Leaf

I noticed the same thing too, I was just about to post this.

[Clair]

Sorry Albert, should not have doubted you.

VOTE: Zlair

[Clair]

Way to just shit on the game of Werewolf.

I am disgusted.

For what it's worth, that other site is the only site I've ever played on that treats replacements and sub spec so seriously. Whatever shenanigans are happening here are not "normal" in any sense of how the game is played on MafiaScum, but nothing I think that violates the spirit of the rules as understood here.

[Clair]

[/unvote]

Still admiring the troll.

[Clair]

I can't believe we all missed hammer. No offense to the mod, but this game has been the biggest trainwreck I've played in a long time. (If Albert had claimed and fought it out I don't think he would have gotten lynched.)

I agree with Firebringer on the Flair kill: Flair was obvious town, I don't think any other explanation is needed.

I would be willing to lynch Gobbles today, but right now this is my bigger suspect:

VOTE: Blair

Blair has pushed all players but taken a back seat twice now in actually picking the lynch. Blair has put in all the work to look town without actually doing much of anything else: no cases, no convincing pushes, lots of jokes about pockets that are starting to look uncomfortably like a pattern.

[Clair]

@Clair - you act like I read the thread rather than just the most current string of posts. I specifically want you to state "if this is true": citrus fruits, dancing, and rain?

I do want this answered.

"if this is true": citrus fruits, dancing, and rain?

[Clair]

I'm not sure what you could be asking, except that if your question is whether I have fruit or not, I don't. I do like Piña Coladas and getting caught in the rain.

[Clair]

I'd case you on the irony of you voting me for what you (mistakenly) believed to be a contradiction, but you're almost certainly town so I'll just ask you to stop being silly and help us catch scum.

Please stop being silly and help us catch scum.

When did Campbell become town? You have had him as a scumread most of the game now.

[Clair]

That post is null. It makes sense for scum to entertain false hypotheticals, that's acting, that's the whole point of the game. 951 could make sense as town or as scum acting like town. It doesn't reveal any real motivation, it's just another shout in the hurricane.

[Clair]

Campbell, Blair and I have been arguing over your slot all game, with Blair insisting that she has a mild scumread on you while I leaned first town and then null. The fact that Blair doesn't actually want to lynch you anymore is another point in favor of Blair making it all up as she goes.

[Clair]

Blair spent a large part of Day 1 with Campbell as her most frequent target:

Spoiler:

No?

VOTE: Frederick A Campbell

Cognitive dissonance.

Frederick just admitted lynching him would be "progress" - scumslip?

[/sarcasm]

Too many people are townreading Frederick for me to pressure him now.

VOTE: Flair

Thank you Clair, you clearly understand the game better than I do, I concede to your superior senses and will change my vote to match yours.

Seriously? As soon as I move my vote EXPLICITLY because everyone was townreading Frederick, his wagon takes off?

VOTE: Frederick A Campbell

Then somehow Blair progresses to a "mild townread" when Campbell was mostly inactive:

VOTE: Fred

Let's win this quickly then.

Is this the part where we bamboozle the scum with our fake reads?

Because I have a mild townread on Frederick.

Campbell continues to be mostly inactive but now Blair has shifted again:

Yes, I read your interview with Flavor Leaf. Feels like a personality conflict to me. I liked Flavor Leaf more after reading it.

I'm lukewarm on a Frederick wagon. He's going to be more difficult to sort than most, which makes him a good Day 1 lynch from a game theory perspective, but I don't really feel like I would learn much from his flip which will be a tremendous waste of this lengthy Day 1, to flip someone who played so small a role in most of the thread dynamics.

That kind of came out stream of consciousness, sorry.

Finally Blair moves toward Campbell as too inactive to sort:

Fred, though. It feels like most have given an opinion on him, no? And why would it be a waste? I want to eliminate the player most likely to flip wolf, not the one who was most discussed.

Do you believe Fred is "the player most likely to flip wolf?" If you've indicated this before and I missed it, apologies. This would be somewhat of a revelation to me.

If Fred is the most likely to flip wolf, please explain why,

because I'm having a dreadful time reading him.

There just isn't much there, and that tells me that even if "most have given an opinion on him" those opinions won't be very illuminating post-flip because they'll all be so fragile, if you know what I mean.

Fred, now you're ruining it with your weirdness. Stop trying to make me scumread you.

All of these takes are fair on their own, but they don't make sense together, which leads to...

[Clair]

I know was against mass claiming but I guess it is over for me now. I'm the Friendly Neighbor and I targeted Blair on Night 2. Hence her sudden townread on me.

I want Blair to come in and back this up before I really believe it.

[Clair]

Looking up the role, Friendly neighbor doesn't confirm Blair, it just confirms you. So why is it still not reasonable to suspect Blair?

[Clair]

To Clair:

I know was against mass claiming but I guess it is over for me now. I'm the Friendly Neighbor and I targeted Blair on Night 2. Hence her sudden townread on me.

Just for the sake of completeness, who did you target Night 1?

[Clair]

Oh, loyal.

UNVOTE:

[Clair]

I still want Blair to come in, but at this point that's almost a formality.

With Blair/Campbell/Albert/Flair/Looker/Stan1ey all flipped, it should be possible to do some decent D1 analysis now. Will work on that shortly.

[Clair]

Sooo you're

not

Ms. Number Analysis then?

No. But if you're Mr. Number Analysis, I could be.

[Clair]

It's a good take because your inconsistency was noticed, and part of a broader trend of backseat lynches. But, feh, fine. Let's move on then.

[Clair]

It's a good take because your inconsistency was noticed, and part of a broader trend of backseat lynches. But, feh, fine. Let's move on then.

Or this one.

[Clair]

VoteCount 1.Lynch

stan1ey

(7): Albert B. Rampage, Firebringer, NoPowerOverMe, Sakura Hana, Blair, Fredrick A Campbell, Flavor Leaf --- Lynch!!!

Looker

(2): gobbledygook, Flair

Albert B. Rampage

(1): Looker

Fredrick A Campbell

(2): Clair, stan1ey

NoPowerOverMe

(1): iamausername

Not Voting

(0):

None.

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

FLAVOR

Here is the door

Interestingly, the only wagon that wasn't on town is NPOM's, which is also the only wagon that doesn't have a clear on it (iamausername).

This leaves gobbledygook/iamausername off the main wagon, and Firebringer / NPOM / Sakura (votato) / Flavor Leaf (Zlair) on the wagon.

[Clair]

It's a good take because your inconsistency was noticed, and part of a broader trend of backseat lynches. But, feh, fine. Let's move on then.

Or this one.

you dont think scum would make a townie post and then immediately point to it and say "look how townie i am, lets you and i stop fighting and go lynch someone else"?

I wondered about this, but the whole Clair ISO turns out to be full of posts that scum doesn't make.

[Clair]

This leaves gobbledygook/iamausername off the main wagon, and Firebringer / NPOM / Sakura (votato) / Flavor Leaf (Zlair) on the wagon.

Right now thinking I'd lynch in this order:

gobbledygook > NPOM (logicalicaltist) > Flavor Lear / Zlair = Firebringer = iamausername > Sakura / votato

Heavily contingent on Zlair and logicalicaltist showing up and doing something.

[Clair]

NPOM didn't ragequit, although his last posts are amusing in hindsight:

Replacing out is usually a scum tell right?

Well, some players disassociate themselves from games they replace out of so they don't feel guilt or a sense of poor sportsmanship.

I could believe either Sakura or Flavor Leaf as scum ragequits.

[Clair]

VOTE: Gobbledygook

I'm not sure now I want to carry this through, but I'm fine with this for the moment. I want the lurkers to step forward before I call this final.

[Clair]

Damn, you made some posts that sounded so much like her. Blair, Clair isn't hoopla, right?

I am not hoopla. Maybe for my next parody alt.

Way to call it a pressure vote while making it as non-threatening as possible (?)

Unless I'm reading you wrong, I assumed half the reason you voted Gobbledygook was to see if I really wanted to lynch him first or was just posturing. I don't, but I do.

[Clair]

Actually, what I mean is that hoopla made her account as a weird parody fan account of one of my accounts, just like Blair did in this game.

[Clair]

What were those slightly different circumstances?

[Clair]

votato is town and ur my scumread if u EVEN DARE CONSIDER HIM

Firebringer, will you be flailing now or do you usually wait a little longer?

I didn't think that, but your abject terror here is noted.

Stop trying to parody the Blair brand and image.

I already established this was serious business!

[Clair]

If someone were to replace in as "Glair" or "Slair" or (probably going a little too far) "Wlair," then we could lynch Zlair, but until we have a replacement so the supply of -airs stays above 3 I wouldn't recommend it.

[Clair]

No, please help me.

[Clair]

I won't take this wagon to L-1 but I'll hammer if the time comes.

[Clair]

I don't want to poison the well here, but the longer he goes without posting the likelier he's scum who wants to avoid spew.

Correct course is to wait about a day and then lynch, scum will be forced to kill Frederick since he can clear someone tomorrow.

[Clair]

You target someone and next day wait for claims to see who received your visit. If someone claims unprompted that you visited them, they are town. If someone does not claim that you checked them, they are scum. This is a free check. Scum have to kill you to stop it. The only ways to stop it are if scum have a role that can block you, or a tracker who could tell them if you happen to visit one of them. We would know we were in that situation because... they would have to keep you alive.

In that situation, they would have to kill Blair as the other clear, which would still give us a clear tomorrow.

[Clair]

If they keep me alive and block me, wouldn't I, in effect, get a false positive that my target is scum? Meanwhile, if they track me instead, I would get a false positive that my target is town. This is a very unreliable check so I am useless if they do keep me alive.

Yes, exactly. Scum have to kill you because you can generate a clear. If they have some other method of stopping you, we will know because they won't kill you. Hence, if you are alive tomorrow, we don't have to worry about a false clear, because we'd know that scum had blocked you or something.

[Clair]

You target someone and next day wait for claims to see who received your visit. If someone claims unprompted that you visited them, they are town. If someone does not claim that you checked them, they are scum. This is a free check. Scum have to kill you to stop it. The only ways to stop it are if scum have a role that can block you, or a tracker who could tell them if you happen to visit one of them. We would know we were in that situation because... they would have to keep you alive.

In that situation, they would have to kill Blair as the other clear, which would still give us a clear tomorrow.

I wonder why you are so interested in this?

VOTE: Clair

Because I like setup spec.

[Clair]

VOTE: Clair

You must look into the animals eyes.
You must intimidate the animal.
The animal has you pinned and another animal intervenes.
Now I shall Pressure a stare down on Clair to see their next move.

[Clair]

I'm ready to hammer but will wait for the clears. I would like to hear Logicalicalist at least post some thoughts, though I don't want to make him read the whole game when he's about to be lynched. I would also appreciate some final thoughts from others before hammer. (I know this will sound scummy, but I wonder why players have gone quiet here. Avoiding associations?)

[Clair]

Any comments before you flip?

[Clair]

Logicalicaltist, any reads or cases or anything? Making it incredibly hard not to hammer. Sorry you had to sub into this but you were in the POE.

[Clair]

Ok. Then what thoughts do you have on the state of the game? What have you read so far? Do you have any reads or thoughts? Please convince me we should lynch someone else in the POE.

[Clair]

This is where we stand:

Blair

stan1ey

Fredrick A Campbell

Albert B. Rampage

votato

Sakura Hana

Firebringer
Clair
iamausername
gobbledygook
Logicalicaltist

NoPowerOverMe

Flair

Zlair

Flavor Leaf

Looker

[Clair]

I might join you in a votato wagon. Hammering before any real wagon dynamics never sits right with me.

VOTE: votato

[Clair]

So Fred and Blair are Confirmed I take it?

Frederick claims Loyal Friendly Neighbor; his night targets receive confirmation that he is town, but only if that player is town. Night 1 he visited Looker (who is dead) and Night 2 he visited Blair. Frederick claimed today and Blair backed it up, which clears Fred. Blair had Frederick as a scum-null read all game and today claimed out of nowhere that Frederick was almost surely town, which practically confirms Blair. This is why you were asked if you'd been visited, though I'm not sure why as nobody has Frederick has not claimed to have targeted you.

[Clair]

I'd case you on the irony of you voting me for what you (mistakenly) believed to be a contradiction,

but you're almost certainly town

so I'll just ask you to stop being silly and help us catch scum.

Please stop being silly and help us catch scum.

Blair posted this before Frederick claimed. Frederick's claim includes a loyal modifier, so Blair would not have known Frederick was confirmed innocent if Blair was scum.

[Clair]

VOTE: gobbledygook

[Clair]

This is where we stand:

Blair

stan1ey

Fredrick A Campbell

Albert B. Rampage

votato

Sakura Hana

Firebringer
Clair
iamausername
gobbledygook
Logicalicaltist

NoPowerOverMe

Flair

Zlair

Flavor Leaf

Looker

My take:

Votato:

• Sakura really scummed this slot up for me, mostly due to her interactions with Flavor Leaf, which felt forced and unnatural to me.
• On the other hand, players who know her better than me were town reading her and her rage quit seems to fit her town meta.
• Votato has since taken over this slot and so far I am firmly votato-reading him.

Clair:

• Has been widely scumread and wagoned multiple times.
• Flair kill feels unlikely to come from scum!Clair to me, but this is a very weak tell.
• Generally difficult to read this slot. I don't find her suspicious enough to lynch, nor townie enough to town-bloc.

Firebringer:

• Another fairly commonly pushed slot. Not a lot of obvious efforting coming from this slot, but this seems like a playstyle thing. Could be scum, but more likely mislynch bait.

iamausername:

• Very low content slot, but I generally like their content when they do post.
• Another widely scumread slot, although Gobbles feels there has not been enough pressure here.

Gobbledygook:

• Was a strong townread of mine Day 1.
• Kind of vanished after that. Has creeped into many players' PoE through perceived lurking.

Logicalicaltist:

• NPOM was an on-again, off-again scumread throughout Day 1, and became widely scumread after opposing the Looker wagon as an obvious mislynch, despite Looker being his #4 suspect and outside his (massive) town bloc.

Zlair:

• Flavor Leaf scummed this slot up with a quickhammer on Day 1, was widely scumread Day 2 before rage quitting.
• Zlair has made a lot of ambiguous posts and isn't easy to sort yet.

[/spoiler]

If you weren't cleared I'd be scumreading you for this post, because it seems like you have null or neutral reads on just about everyone. Do you have a lynch preference list right now?

[Clair]

...

If they keep me alive and block me, wouldn't I, in effect, get a false positive that my target is scum? Meanwhile, if they track me instead, I would get a false positive that my target is town. This is a very unreliable check so I am useless if they do keep me alive.

Yes, exactly. Scum have to kill you because you can generate a clear. If they have some other method of stopping you, we will know because they won't kill you. Hence, if you are alive tomorrow, we don't have to worry about a false clear, because we'd know that scum had blocked you or something.

Let's put it this way,

	Implication
If I get nightkilled	Nothing can be concluded from it, since scum may have the necessary roles to make me useless, but decided to kill me anyway.
If I don't get nightkilled	Scum must have had some way to stop me.

Ok. I get it now.

Thank you, Clair. You clearly understand the game better than I do, I concede to your superior senses and will change my opinion to match yours.

I thought about this again and look at what happens if I get nightkilled. Nothing can be concluded from it. What happens if I don't get nightkilled. Something can be concluded from it. Why wouldn't scum just nightkill me tonight then?

Dear Clair,

Both the post quoted and this post are addressed to you.

Didn't think there was anything to say here, I think the logic works out that scum has to kill you. If they don't then "something can be concluded from it," which comes back to the question of "Why wouldn't scum just nightkill" you tonight.

Spoiler:

Also, since you're not Blair there's no need to grovel.

[Clair]

No flip? That's interesting.

[Clair]

Here's my proposed claim order:

gobbledygook
Zlair
votato
Firebringer
iamausername
Clair
Blair

[Clair]

This is actually a better order than the one I had:

gobbledygook
Zlair
iamausername
votato
Firebringer
Clair
Blair

Will start pressuring gobbledygook for a claim unless Frederick intervenes.

[Clair]

No particular reason, votato / Firebringer / iamausername all feel about equivalent to me. My main concern is that if this is the order we're going to have to wait for scum to drag the claims out and potentially on Frederick to stamp his approval before people come out and claim.

[Clair]

Because iamausername should probably claim before FireBringer, but it's a small improvement. I don't really care, we can talk about why after the massclaim.

[Clair]

I don’t think we should mass claim with a missing. We should no lynch.

VOTE: no lynch

Claim.

[Clair]

Yes.

[Clair]

Shoot. I really thought that would work!

Blair, convince gobbledygook that he has to claim. Thanks dear.

[Clair]

We're in MYLO. If we don't lynch correctly, scum win anyways. Nightactions don't matter as much in this context, especially when a no lynch will put us in LYLO tomorrow, or MYLO at best.

[Clair]

Scum will kill a clear. Scum will not kill in our POE. Normal statistical case doesn't apply here.

[Clair]

Claims:

gobbledygook - Doctor (Qualified)
Zlair - Doctor (2-shot)
iamausername
votato
Firebringer
Clair
Blair

iamausername, your turn.

[Clair]

Firebringer already claimed, which means it's my turn. Honestly though? What the fuck.

[Clair]

I'm a Jailkeeper. Night 1 I targeted Flair. Night 2 I targeted Votato (I regret not targeting Flair instead). Night 3 I targeted Frederick (so nobody should have been visited by a Friendly Neighbor). Sorry about that, but I wanted to make it clear yesterday that scum should kill Frederick so I could save him last night.

Give me a minute to dig up my crumbs.

[Clair]

My last posts of Day 1. The first letter of each post spells "JAIL". I was a little rushed to put these crumbs in since the speedlynch surprised my plans, and since I didn't telegraph my Night 1 JK I didn't bother to do it for any other night either:

stanley/clair/iamusername

That's the scum team.

VOTE: Clair

Just a terrible vote too, not just because it's on me. Remember Firebringer petered out on his case on me and got townread for it. But given a chance to Lynch me again he does.

VOTE: Stan1ey

Great, so why are we doing this?

A good question, why did you do this Blair?

There’s a scum in the people that know me, I can feel it based on how this gamestate is

I had a similar thought: that is, the players I think are in your "friend group" (you / Albert / Sakura / Firebringer / Looker ) are giving me more problems reading than many of the players outside it.

Look at Albert trying to salvage his bad lynch by softing. Maybe we should have lynched there after all.

[Clair]

Last call for someone to come forward with an explanation for the other thing that happened last night.

Not me. I stand by my story as the 100% truth. If I have been a little cagey or scummy all game, it's only because I assumed JK was too important to get killed and figured a little suspicion was a good thing.

[Clair]

I think I'd believe Zlair is scum before believing there's a 2-shot doctor and a JK, but I'd like to hear from Blair before committing myself.

[Clair]

Protecting Flair N1 didn't get me anywhere, so I thought I'd try protecting a different townread. Sakura was widely townread and I didn't feel bad about votato. I regret it, I should have protected Flair a second night and after the clears came in my votato townread looked a lot weaker than it'd felt Night 2.

[Clair]

... This game is cursed.

iamausername should be able at least to back up your claim if you're announcing. Though, at this point, with MYLO I could actually believe that the three scum are going to openwolf.

[Clair]

I placed myself last in the clear order to see if anyone else would claim a protective role. I was surprised when it worked.

[Clair]

My guess is that Frederick was targeted by the nightkill and protected, and I was roleblocked/jailed. When the kill failed, scum!Clair claimed to have jailed Frederick to preemptively explain why no one received a Friendly Neighbor visit (note how she placed herself last in the claim order - just in case Frederick targeted a Townie, so she could adapt her story)

If the above theory is true, this would pretty much clear iamausername, because if scum knew about the Neapolitan they surely would have known Frederick was lying. It appears they didn't.

It also likely means Firebringer and Votato are clear, because why would scum fake claim Vanilla Townie in a setup with a known Neapolitan?

Putting aside that you think I blocked you, your order of clears is entirely nonsensical. If iamasurename/Firebringer/Votato/You/Frederick are all clear,that leaves a Zlair/Clair/gobbledygook scumteam. Which leaves you with no explanation of how no one died last night. (Do you think scum no-killed?)

[Clair]

I think for now, I will accept, as stunning as it is, the gambit that seems to clear Clair and Frederick all over again, if only because the crumbs are all there and this fakeclaim would have had to have been in the works for the entire game.

Blair, why did you target the players you did?

[Clair]

Do you still claim to have jailkeeped Fredrick last night, Clair?

Yes. This is why I made it very clear yesterday that Frederick was the optimal kill for scum, so that I could jail him and finally succeed in stopping a kill. My Jail crumbs are from Day 1, so no one can accuse me of making up this whole story within the last night.

[Clair]

Neapolitan/Jailkeeper/Psychologist/Universal Backup

That sounds like a fairly plausible setup to me, there's no way it could all be a massive scum gambit because then there would be no town PRs left. Blair and Frederick are still clear, I think, just in an unusual way. iamasureanme could still be scum because the announcing modifier would require her to have come up with a fakeclaim of some sort. But I could also believe it to be true.

[Clair]

If we can lynch the Mafia Roleblocker today (probably Clair, but who knows), the Doctor can protect me tonight and I can investigate one of the two VT claims to get us another clear tomorrow.

There probably isn't a doctor, you have to believe Zlair's claim or think that scum no-killed. As I've already suggested, the latter theory doesn't make much sense, because it relies on me making crumbs Day 1 for a scheme that happened Night 3. If you believe I'm a Jailkeeper but lying about everything else, you basically have to believe Zlair's claim. I think you need to think about this again.

[Clair]

Neapolitan/Jailkeeper/Psychologist/Universal Backup

That sounds like a fairly plausible setup to me, there's no way it could all be a massive scum gambit because then there would be no town PRs left. Blair and Frederick are still clear, I think, just in an unusual way. iamasureanme could still be scum because the announcing modifier would require her to have come up with a fakeclaim of some sort. But I could also believe it to be true.

So you’re saying that Zlair is scum?

Probably, if we take Neapolitan and Universal Backup as given, it doesn't make sense for there to be two protective roles, and from my point of view town Jailkeeper is also given.

[Clair]

On Firebringer, I think you're also overlooking the possibility of an ascetic modifier.

[Clair]

If we can lynch the Mafia Roleblocker today (probably Clair, but who knows), the Doctor can protect me tonight and I can investigate one of the two VT claims to get us another clear tomorrow.

There probably isn't a doctor, you have to believe Zlair's claim or think that scum no-killed. As I've already suggested, the latter theory doesn't make much sense, because it relies on me making crumbs Day 1 for a scheme that happened Night 3. If you believe I'm a Jailkeeper but lying about everything else, you basically have to believe Zlair's claim. I think you need to think about this again.

If I wind up dead then the Doctor claim is lying and you lynch them.

If you lynch me today the game is over anyways. We're in MYLO. If we lynch town today scum doesn't have to kill a clear, they just have to kill someone who isn't going to be protected.

[Clair]

Clair is really hanging her hat on me hard-clearing the VT claims, which I am not doing.

No, I'm really not. I'm not sure where to lynch, actually, and it's not just because I'm casting around for the perfect mislynch or something.

Give me an hour or so, I have some meetings to attend to, but give me a little time because thinking about it there are a few holes in the Clair=scum theory I think you'll take seriously.

[Clair]

This post is mainly addressed at Blair, because some of these points are a little subtle and I don't want to complicate this post by writing it in universal terms:

If I'm scum, there are several points where the way things played out is more complicated than if I'm town. You can dismiss them all if you want, nothing really constitutes "proof," but I think there are a few good points here:

* There was no kill last night. The explanations are: 1) I blocked it 2) Zlair blocked it 3) Scum no killed. (I guess 1 and 2 are not mutually exclusive.) As I've said already, my crumbs are from Day 1, so the Jailkeeper claim is not something I just made up for my convenience right now. You can argue that I no-killed last night to add plausibility to my claim. But why would I feel the need to no-kill if I already had breadcrumbs laid out? It would have been much simpler for me to kill and target a clear. You could argue that this is what I did, but then we're back to 2: Zlair has to have blocked it.

* If I had blocked you, Blair, it would have been much simpler for me to claim I protected you than to claim I protected Frederick. If I was scum I'd be sticking my neck out, there's no need for me to risk being contradicted by a tracker or watcher.

* The whole discussion yesterday about how Frederick was the optimal kill was my way of forcing the scum to kill him so I could force the protect on him. There's not really a scum motive for me to have done this, unless it was all just a giant calculation so I could make this argument today.

* If I were scum, why would I have blocked Blair and killed Frederick? It's the opposite play that makes sense. I had already argued that Frederick was the correct kill, so if I was scum I would have felt comfortable supposing the doctor would protect there and I could have killed Blair. Neither I nor Zlair has argued that Blair was the player being protected. If I was scum cleverly trying to no-kill, it would have been much easier for me to claim Blair was the target. And if I did try to kill Blair last night and was somehow stopped, well, not only has no one claimed to have protected Blair, but it would have been far easier for me if that had been my claim.

* If I were scum, I would have seen the gobbledygook/Zlair doc claims and could have easily avoided claiming entirely. It would have been much easier for me to not claim in that pile. (I suppose you could believe that scum knew about the Neapolitan, so I knew I'd have to claim a PR. But my crumbs from Day 1 are before anyone could have known about a Neapolitan. Again I could have wanted to claim VT but felt forced to claim a PR, but I could have claimed something simpler if this was my goal. Certainly, again, I could have claimed to have visited Blair if I felt trapped by the need to claim instead of claiming to have visited Frederick as I did.)

In short, if I was scum, it would have been easier for me to have 1) killed Blair 2) claim to have blocked Blair or 3) not have claimed JK at all.

[Clair]

* If I were scum, why would I have blocked Blair and killed Frederick? It's the opposite play that makes sense. I had already argued that Frederick was the correct kill, so if I was scum I would have felt comfortable supposing the doctor would protect there and I could have killed Blair. Neither I nor Zlair has argued that Blair was the player being protected. If I was scum cleverly trying to no-kill, it would have been much easier for me to claim Blair was the target. And if I did try to kill Blair last night and was somehow stopped, well, not only has no one claimed to have protected Blair, but it would have been far easier for me if that had been my claim.

I think this point is most worth considering. You know what the optimal scum play would have been, and you know that I know it too. The best scum play runs right through killing you or Frederick last night, not in making a no-kill and claiming credit. And, if I had wanted to no-kill and claim credit, it would be much easier if I had claimed to visit you. If I was scum and thought Frederick was a Friendly Neighbor, it would have been simpler for me to block him and kill you. If I was scum and has some inkling of your claim gambit, it would have been easier for me to block you and claim to have stopped a kill on you.

[Clair]

If I was scum, why would I have made the fakeclaim? Why couldn't a different scummate have claimed to have blocked the kill? Me claiming to have blocked Frederick is problematic because I could have been tracked or watched visiting you instead. And it would have been much easier for me to kill you and block Frederick, after I spent all that time yesterday outlining exactly why Frederick had to be the kill.

Put this another way: Why would I argue that Frederick had to be the kill (ensuring that the doctor would protect Frederick), then choose to kill Frederick anyways, fail, block you, and then claim that I visited Frederick when I visited you? There are four points where it would have been much simpler for me to have played differently.

[Clair]

Also, of all the wacky hijinks you and I have pulled together as scum in the past, you know better than to argue that you wouldn't no kill. I'm just surprised you didn't nightkill your partner this time to claim Vigilante.

Since you're going there anyways: you know that I wouldn't kill Flair and leave you alive. Either I'd want to fool both of you or neither of you. If I was willing to kill Flair you know that I'd be willing to kill you too: which, as I've argued, would have been the smarter play for me to make as scum, given that I made the case yesterday that would have drawn the doctor away from you.

[Clair]

I believe you blocked me and shot Frederick (the correct play if you saw through the gambit, kill the cleared VT, stop me from clearing anyone else, and leave me awkwardly exposed in a weird gambit when Frederick flips something other than Friendly Neighbor).

Hm, actually, you're right, this would have been the better play for me. Hm. But even then, it still would have been better for me to have claimed a visit on you than a visit on Frederick. But it still wouldn't make sense for me to argue yesterday that Frederick was the correct kill and thus draw any doctors over to him. You have to believe I had some seriously antipodean motives for this theory to make sense.