Mini Normal 2187: PIFiMDM [game over!]
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northsidegal Survivor
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northsidegal Survivor
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i'm getting the "starting a new game of mafia after months of not playing and being washed up" jitters, very nostalgic
hey dann! i'm glad you are both confirmed town and still alive-
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northsidegal Survivor
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i'd prefer if you'd hold off for my sakeIn post 930, Kazyan wrote:By the way, do we still want to put a delay on the hammer?-
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northsidegal Survivor
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if you wouldn't mind, could i get a quick summary of your reads, dann?-
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northsidegal Survivor
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how confident are you on NPOM / agar? his is the main slot i'm flip flopping on, all the others are at least approaching one direction or the other. i feel as though NPOM was immediately and obviously way more anxious in another scum game that i looked at (although that was his only one), and as the kids say i have ~reasons~ to think he might be town, but even still there's a residual doubt.In post 938, Dannflor wrote:this is somewhere in the general vicinity of where I am right now, although I've had some recent fluctuations, I can expand on specific slots if you want, but I'm less solid on certain ones than others
i think i agree with you more than i disagree with you so far, although maybe not to a huge degree. both kazyan and lunar are really the only ones on the town side for me, with gamma and elements being scumreads. i'd do one of those curly brace readslists but i'm not sure how helpful it'd be.
having skipped ahead to the start of day 2 i know there's some shenanigans surrounding hayker's fakeclaiming, but having not gotten to that yet in my main read through he's fairly null alongside 2ndchosen. zito is hovering somewhere around null/scum, although i think that might just be paranoia because he's a vaguely familiar player but i don't actually have any idea of how he plays.-
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northsidegal Survivor
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quoting this for referenceIn post 151, Hayker wrote:Alchemist, I'm curious about your current thoughts on Elements. You voted him early on , asking him about their post, and havent seemed to elaborate much on the subject since then.-
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northsidegal Survivor
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@gamma, how often do you accuse people of "white knighting", and why do you think it comes from scum, or benefits scum? more than town, of course.-
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northsidegal Survivor
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also just for post-game credit and i guess just to make my reads clear if i had to pick three people as the scumteam right now it'd be hayker elements and gamma-
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northsidegal Survivor
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sorry about the delay, gonna finish my readthrough now. don't think i have much left to get through but i did lose my page "bookmark"-
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northsidegal Survivor
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alright, i'm caught up. i don't think my thoughts have changedall that significantlysince 940 with maybe the exception that i'm a bit more confident in NPOM's slot as town (to be honest unwnd hasn't really factored into my read at all), and dann's case on zito occupies a prominent slot in my mind, if only because it's an angle i wasn't really considering.
i'm also fairly more confident in gamma scum. it's possible that my gamma-scum-o-meter is miscalibrated from being so unbelievably washed up, but so many of his posts are just really really devoid of any sort of scumhunting at times when almost everyone else was doing so. (i have posts from conftowns highlighted as green, so this really stands out reading back through day one)
2ndchosen i'm a little more comfortable calling town. although still not hugely confident. posts like 536 are i guess the perfect way to pocket me because they seem to be genuinely focused on solving things and noticing details / inconsistencies in a way that doesn't fit my schema of how generic scum players play.-
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northsidegal Survivor
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oh, kazyan has sunk down a bit more to null for me since 940. i think a lot of my read was based on the idea that he actually was hectic, and he made a comment that seemed really hectic-town-indicative to me in 215, the "reactions more important than the act itself" point. given that he (as i now believe / know) isn't and given some tonally kind of scummy posts like 632 he's dropped-
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northsidegal Survivor
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dann, i think there are some inconsistencies in the zito/hayker narrative that i want to mull over a bit with you. i guess the first isn't so much of an inconsistency so much as a really notable point, that of hayker's kind of weird and really strong townread on zito. it does, however, lead into the other point—agar said this:
i'm not sure how much an agar (assuming that penguin was the vig shot, which seems at the moment a decent assumption) kill makes sense with zito / hayker scum. to be fair, i think i might be ignoring the counterfactual here, which is simply why agar was killed at all, not even considering why specific teams might have killed him (and i have given that question less thought than i probably should have).In post 576, AGar wrote: #547 - If Hayker is scum, Zito is town. Book it.-
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northsidegal Survivor
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i wouldn't say that i'm "tinfoiling" him necessarily, just that whereas before he was one of my only townreads i wouldn't really put him up there anymore.In post 1024, unwnd wrote:
Yeah I'm tinfoiling him a good amount too, even if our reasons aren't fully similarIn post 1023, northsidegal wrote:oh, kazyan has sunk down a bit more to null for me since 940. i think a lot of my read was based on the idea that he actually was hectic, and he made a comment that seemed really hectic-town-indicative to me in 215, the "reactions more important than the act itself" point. given that he (as i now believe / know) isn't and given some tonally kind of scummy posts like 632 he's dropped-
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northsidegal Survivor
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i'm pretty confident in lunar being town such that i'd be really surprised if he ended up being scum, mostly because he's played in a way that really doesn't seem like in general how a newer player would play scum, nor does it seem like for him specifically he's playing his scum game. zito brought up earlier some point about him dying before lylo or some such as a liability, and i bring up him bringing that up only to disagree on both a reads level and a philosophical level. people "needing to die" should be struck from any town player's vocabulary.
anyways, to go into some specific examples while not overstating the subject, i think that lunar probably doesn't go really hard against the guy defending him (ben) like he does in 246 if he were scum. it doesn't match how he interacted with his partners in the one scum newbie game i saw from him and i would doubt that he would interact with a townie like that as scum – i'd imagine he'd just ignore it. (not sure why i bring up the partner point when ben is conftown already but whatever)
also just in general he's playing a pretty aggressive game such that it doesn't feel like he has anyone that he could be partnered with. again i'm going off of his other scumgame here with regards for what i was looking for in terms of partner interactions, but still even without that i feel as though he lacks almost any partner associatives. there are some other random posts that also seem like they basically only come from town too like 264 and 604 but that's probably enough said on the subject-
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northsidegal Survivor
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i believe the term is LAMISTIn post 1028, unwnd wrote:Affirmative action was probably the wrong thing to say there
I'll rephrase: It looked he made such a deliberate point to basically say 'OK guys, here's the blatantly obvious thing townies should do, because I as well am town'
and yeah looking back i think that i sort of passed over it because if hectic were to say that i would understand it as him getting at some sort of underlying philosophy with regards to townies doing outrageous things, but without that context it doesn't quite look the same-
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northsidegal Survivor
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i also thought the continual numbering 1) 2) list thing was a hectic bit too but yeah
anyways enough about hectic-
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northsidegal Survivor
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scumread
i know that i harp on and on about not overfocusing on townies who do outrageous things but in this case i feel as though he did outrageous things and is just scum. we'll see if ignoring my own philosophy comes back to bite me, but to be fair another thing that a very wise townie once said is that the best townies know when to not dogmatically follow rules-
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northsidegal Survivor
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specifically among other things i think that his end of day votes yesterday were fairly scummy-
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whyIn post 1034, Gamma Emerald wrote:Y’all two need to read Hayker’s ISO once the flip happens-
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northsidegal Survivor
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oh yeah and in case i haven't said anything on the subject yet which i'm not sure if i have i think we're green light on hayker dying today-
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northsidegal Survivor
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point to specifics?In post 1037, Gamma Emerald wrote:The way Hayker handles Kazyan does not look like scum-scum interaction at all-
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northsidegal Survivor
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so he did
anyways point to specifics on what you're talking about there?-
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oh man this is annoying, i get no quality dann time (probably)
@datisi how much bribe money for you to "forget" to check the thread for a day or so-
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northsidegal Survivor
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so you're confident in elements being scum?In post 1043, Gamma Emerald wrote:The way Hayker talks about his elements scum read so much to subvert that with a Kazyan vote that’s only justified in the last line of the post tells me Hayker is doing the “push a buddy vote a townie” play, which makes Kazyan town-
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northsidegal Survivor
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what's your best hypothesis for why agar was the nightkill? i've just realized that i can't really square itIn post 1048, Dannflor wrote:
I'm here but I can't promise qualityIn post 1044, northsidegal wrote:oh man this is annoying, i get no quality dann time (probably)
@datisi how much bribe money for you to "forget" to check the thread for a day or so
is it a setup thing? they wanted to keep the jailkeep ability for one night more?-
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northsidegal Survivor
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i think that early on the whole "going to vote each player once" thing matches perfectly with what it looks like when a townie does an outrageous thing and people get upset at it and decide to vote the player more out of anger or whatever than it actually being scummyIn post 1050, Dannflor wrote:I actually defended elements quite early because he seemed very outrageous townie to me
as the day goes on though i think that his play gets less defensible under that sort of idea-
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northsidegal Survivor
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yeah check this out though:In post 1052, Dannflor wrote:snipIn post 151, Hayker wrote:Alchemist, I'm curious about your current thoughts on Elements. You voted him early on , asking him about their post, and havent seemed to elaborate much on the subject since then.-
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northsidegal Survivor
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In post 1055, Dannflor wrote:But, alternatively, it could just be that they weren't afraid of my reads and people seemed willing to sheep me enough that they were confident I'd just drive another mis elimination. Instead, they just killed my top town read, which I stated repeatedly was agar.
yeah, something doesn't really square right with either of those explanations to me though. i had forgotten that we don't necessarily know if they knew you're a JK enabler, so them being informed of something is a possibility.In post 1056, Gamma Emerald wrote:AGar had a strong SR on Hayker
I don’t think that’s enough for scum to have killed him but that’s a strong reason
i've done some reviews with datisi that i could probably check to get a better idea of mod setup spec and how likely that is but that'd probably be unfair so i won't.-
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if you're thinking about the gamma/elements thing going on right now my current hypothesis (read: confirmation bias) is that it's scum caught pushing each other down to try to stay afloat. i get that i'm basically just quoting my wiki page at this point with "outrageous things" and that line but still, that's my actual read of itIn post 1060, unwnd wrote:Gamma do you like busing as scum? This might sound like a stupid question, but entertain it anyways-
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to expand on that, this elements scumread by gamma seems to have come out of nowhere starting on day two. i get that he says it's because of the sheeping of the IC, but there's practically no trajectory there from day oneIn post 1062, northsidegal wrote:
if you're thinking about the gamma/elements thing going on right now my current hypothesis (read: confirmation bias) is that it's scum caught pushing each other down to try to stay afloat. i get that i'm basically just quoting my wiki page at this point with "outrageous things" and that line but still, that's my actual read of itIn post 1060, unwnd wrote:Gamma do you like busing as scum? This might sound like a stupid question, but entertain it anyways
fair point. there is i think a common misperception of people thinking that scum plan their moves much more than they actually tend to, so it's possible that there were actually like four posts in the scum PT overnight and one person just decided "the IC isn't onto us so let's just kill this guy".In post 1065, Dannflor wrote:Like, aside from condemning Hayker for sure for sure. I don't think I've been a particularly scary force at any point in this game. If mafia are informed as well, that's more than enough reason to not kill me.
I don't really think Agar was chosen for any reason in particular other than being widely town read-
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northsidegal Survivor
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@dann how strong is your townread on kaz?
also, any contingencies in the wild world where hayker flips town? don't have to dedicate too much time to it but it's worth at least considering, stranger things have happened and maybe he was just a townie deciding to fakeclaim-
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i like that analysis, actually, hadn't really thought about it that way. i think my eyes tended to just get kind of blurry reading over his posts and i may have focused too much on the tonal aspect, as well as the misunderstanding about being hectic (probably another point in favor of me ever playing a game at a time other than the dead of night, but some things just never change)In post 1072, Dannflor wrote:medium? I think Kaz overjustifies himself to the extent that it's towny. Meaning, he's overly transparent in a way that reminds me of myself in certain town games. I think there are a few posts (namely the one where he made like a 10 bullet point list to justify sheeping me off of elements that everyone jumped on) that seem surface level scummy, but I think that post and others like it reveal his mindset and are rather hard to fake as scum. I think people are noticing the self-awareness as scummy but missing how deep that his thought process is actually going 10 bullet points deep. He's not making up those reasons to seem towny, those are the actual things his mind is thinking through.
At least that's my take. Kaz could be scum but I haven't spent too much time paranoia-ing the slot because he's been one of the slots more consistently posting content that I'm happy with, similar to Lunar Martian.-
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yeah, i guess i sort of lean towards that being an awkward attempt at distancing
with no offense meant, i think it being some kind of intentional move to make a townie look bad through association is a scum move one or two levels higher than hayker plays at
and it being just a random vote against a townie that he expects to actually be wagoned seems similarly unlikely-
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northsidegal Survivor
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this is a fun game, i'm glad i replaced in. i'm enjoying myself-
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for me i think it'd be gamma first. gamma / elements is my theory, yes, but it's equally as possible that scum gamma saw people partnering him with town elements and saw it as an opportunity to both get rid of a townie while simultaneously strengthening his own defense (after all, if a large part of your view is that the scumteam is gamma / elements, one element of that being proven wrong should make you doubt the other part. something something bayes).In post 1084, unwnd wrote:Yeah I think that "solve" makes me feel the most comfortable, I would actually go elements first over Gamma because Gamma has been pretty adamant about Elements too
(also, maybe i shouldn't call that "equally as possible", because i think it's actually less likely)
of course, i don't think it's actuallyall that important. but still.
woow, look at the ego on mister paragon here thinking that he'll get nightkilled when my readsIn post 1085, Dannflor wrote:I'm glad you replaced in NSG~!
Next time try not replacing in right before I get brutally murderedobviouslyhave the scumteam quaking in their boots
(i'll try to next time)-
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northsidegal Survivor
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so be honest with me
do you guys floss daily-
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northsidegal Survivor
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i got this water flossing thing recently which has been pretty nice, i have actually been flossing much more than i used to
the only thing is i don't really know how effective it is compared to regular flossing, or i guess just how effective it is at all. i could just be spraying water into my mouth for two minutes every day like an idiot-
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northsidegal Survivor
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dental hygiene is pretty important i thinkIn post 1095, unwnd wrote:I don't floss at all and I really should
Last dentist appointment they told my mouth would be rated at like a C+/B-
flossing is a pain though. if you want to not use the same area of floss (is there a word for a specific length of floss? floss tape? floss line?) you have to pull out a huge length of it, wrap it a lot around your fingers and then sort of unwrap down the line. so if you pull anything out from your teeth, is it just supposed to end up on your fingers and you wash your hands afterwards?
i feel like a lot of people have to be placebo-ing themselves when it comes to flossing. especially if you use those things where it's just the one length of floss on a stick or whatever which makes it a lot easier to do. i'm under the impression that you're not supposed to use the same area of floss for multiple teeth so shouldn't that be ineffective? maybe it's still more effective than not flossing at all. wonder waht the effectiveness is compared to water flossers
i need like a seven part DVD box set containing a detailed scientific breakdown of the effectiveness of these methods and a tuotrial on the best way to do it honestly-
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northsidegal Survivor
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floss is a noun and a verb huh and the verb is just to use the noun-
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well excuse me for carying about dental hygeine-
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i don't like the point i'm about to make because it feels like confirmation bias in that it just supports what i already think, but it seems to me given that mafia seem more concerned with keeping their jailkeeper than eliminating a conftown that they consider it important. i would wager to try to protect themselves from the vig shot, which would seemingly point more towards mafia being in the pool of people more suspected rather than less suspected, so more towards {elements, kaz}, less towards {2ndchosen, lunar, unwnd}
one problem with this is that even if they protect themselves from the vig shot, town collectively knows about the jailkeeper and so the vig could've just claimed where the shot went. that would mean that it'd be important to also kill the vig, so that town wouldn't figure out who they shot and have a soft guilty. so zito was probably a vig suspect shot?-
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also i think wagon analysis on yesterday is probably not actually all that useful. it's basically a certainty that scum were bussing hayker so really the only meaningful insight would be if you had some argument as to why some particular position on the wagon itself was more scummy than another-
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i am a little sad that i won't get my bragging rights for the instant scumteam prediction, but maybe i can at least have two out of three-
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it's absolutely worth considering the world in which zito was killed for his reads over his potential for being a vig so just to make that clear, his scumreads yesterday seemed to be:
unwnd:In post 915, Papa Zito wrote:
Can you expand on your NPOM/unwnd town read pleaseIn post 892, Dannflor wrote:Honestly, unless I'm all sorts of wrong about this game and like the NPOM/unwnd slot is scum it feels like mafia have given up.
lunar:In post 977, Papa Zito wrote:I'm still curious about your NPOM townread.In post 819, Papa Zito wrote:Lunar does the scum thing of throwing shade, presuming intent in the worst light possible. They're either scum or exceptionally bad town, and either way need to be removed before endgame.
those seem to be the main ones, at least on a quick skimIn post 858, Papa Zito wrote:* I don't really think Lunar is town-
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northsidegal Survivor
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i would like to hear people's thoughts on the merits of a massclaim today-
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i also think that we neverreallyhammered out a truly satisfying reason for agar being killed, and with more insight now we might be able to look back and figure out a better reason. at the very least it helps to know for certain that hayker was scum.
don't try to twist what i say for yourself.In post 1132, Elements wrote:I think NSG makes a very good point that we should look into. Especially the bit about scum!unwnd-
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In post 576, AGar wrote: Would love to yeet within {Hayker/NPOM/LM} today.
No desire to yeet within {PZ/GE/Alch/Elements} today.
{PP/Kazyan/Swims/Chosen} don't feel like flips where they'd give enough information as currently constructed, but there is likely some scumbag in there.
VOTE: Hayker-
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northsidegal Survivor
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on further reflection i think you're actually right.In post 1135, Kazyan wrote:
I see no way that this would benefit the town.In post 1131, northsidegal wrote:i would like to hear people's thoughts on the merits of a massclaim today-
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not everything needs to be pressure or analysis.In post 1139, Lunar Martian wrote:To elaborate, there's no pressure or FoS, just a "Hey I don't like you go away!". It's cheap and easy to tell someone to buzz off but with no actual pressure or analysis.
i think that your understanding of the way that scum plays is flawed. you also assume—and i say this while knowing full well that i am not very good at scum—that i am an absolutelyIn post 1140, Lunar Martian wrote:This also feels like Mafia throwing out an idea that would benefit them, and then backing off immediately when the idea gets shut down.terribleplayer. i'm not stupid. if i were scum proposing some idea to benefit me as scum, i wouldn't propose it without any sort of at least plausible justification. i wouldn't just throw some plan to benefit scum out with no reasoning and then back down the instant someone says "i disagree". i think that my progression there really only makes sense as genuine, and my lack of elaboration was deliberate.-
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this is an either incredibly mistaken or incredibly dishonest reading of what i said in 1022. i said that a post like 536 was "the perfect way to pocket me because..." as a way of saying that i really like that style of post.In post 1153, 2ndchosen1 wrote:HWS/NSG Scumread - calls for role fishing on HWS and nsg now, NSG even said I'm "pocketing" by simply providing analysis in 1022 which seems a subtle way of buddying town.
considering the fact that iwas not in the gameat the time of 536, implying that that comment was me saying that you're pocketing me seems incredibly silly.-
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northsidegal Survivor
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and, again, on the "role fishing", i'd point you to 1142. i may not be great at scum but i am certainly not stupid, and stupid is what i would have to be in order for that to be me "role fishing" as scum.
and no, serial killers are not possible in a mini normal.-
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No, not especially. Something similarIn post 1157, Kazyan wrote:This line of argument isn't convincing. "You're accusing me of a bad move, but I don't make bad moves" is some seriously weak tea.couldbe applied (fallaciously) in almost any scenario, where someone accuses you of something scummy and you claim that you're so good at scum that you would never do that. The thing is that in some (and perhaps a lot of) cases that argument is actually correct. For instance, I would never level the accusation against RadiantCowbells (a well known proficient player as town and scum) that because he hasn't really talked about someone else, that person is probably his partner. That sort of argument might apply more to newbie scum players, but RC is pretty much above that level.
It might sound like I'm starting to get pretty arrogant here, so let me return pretty specifically to what lunar said regarding me. He said that my asking for people's thoughts on a massclaim and then agreeing with someone else that it's a bad idea "feels like Mafia throwing out an idea that would benefit them, and then backing off immediately when the idea gets shut down."
My point is that this argument doesn't make sense foranyoneexcept the most amateur players. It relies on, literally taking his words exactly, me as a member of the mafia proposing an idea that would benefit me as scum and then immediately backing down when someone just disagrees. I wouldn't play like that.Most peopledon't play like that. If I, or indeed most anyone, had some plan that I thought would benefit me as scum, I would try to come up with some plausible argument for it, and then if someone pushed back I would make those arguments. I am, as I hope you can see, capable of engaging people in arguments, and so the idea that as scum I would just back down from something seem not grounded in reality.
Essentially, the narrative that lunar proposed is inconsistent with aspects of how almost anyone plays, whereas the actual reality of me just changing my mind makes a lot more sense, because that's what actually happened. It's more about consistency rather than any sort of claim that "i'm too good to make mistakes".-
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northsidegal Survivor
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In post 1159, northsidegal wrote:I am, as I hope you can see, capable of engaging people in arguments, and so the idea that as scum I would just back down fromsome plan I've constructed to benefit the scumteamseem not grounded in reality.-
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northsidegal Survivor
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in terms of his reads i think i had these quoted earlier today but my computer crashed before i posted them
In post 576, AGar wrote: Would love to yeet within {Hayker/NPOM/LM} today.
No desire to yeet within {PZ/GE/Alch/Elements} today.
{PP/Kazyan/Swims/Chosen} don't feel like flips where they'd give enough information as currently constructed, but there is likely some scumbag in there.
VOTE: Hayker-
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northsidegal Survivor
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the gamma townflip obviously means that i need to consider other candidates although i would still consider him as probably townier than other slotsIn post 1166, Dannflor wrote:NSG, how are you reading the NPOM/unwnd slot now?
ithinkthat my ~reasons~ for townreading the slot are probably still valid. i did a quick look back at the end of day one with the extra flip information we had and i also think that there npom's actions still seem to hold up decently, although i do want to do just a more comprehensive read-through with the extra info. also, as i type this now i wonder whether i should be uncomfortable with how much of my read is really based on npom and how little of it seems to be based on unwnd. not sure.-
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northsidegal Survivor
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i think that just in general i find npom probably an easier player to evaluate than you. and that isn't even necessarily based on both of you as players, because it is the case that i've looked at what i think is npom's one and only scumgame whereas i have yet to actually do any meta on you (which i probably should)-
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northsidegal Survivor
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if you'd like to help me townread you it would be a massive help if you could give as long or as short of an explanation as you want as to why you think you're playing your towngame this game and how you think your town and scum metas are meaningfully different (if they are)
i don't expect this or anything, you don't have to if you don't want to and i already lean on you being town more than other slots but it genuinely would help me a lot.-
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northsidegal Survivor
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i do agree that, assuming elements is scum, npom's reads there are notable for their accuracy. can't comment right now on the other associations, i'll take a look tomorrow-
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northsidegal Survivor
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