Mini Normal 2187: PIFiMDM [game over!]

[Datisi]

Vote count 3.05

with 7 votes in play, it takes 4 to make a decision. day 3 ends in (expired on 2021-01-22 12:30:00).

execution

unwnd [2]:

Elements, 2ndchosen1

Elements [2]:

Lunar Martian, northsidegal

northsidegal [1]:

Kazyan

2ndchosen1 [1]:

unwnd

Not voting [1]:

Dannflor

mod notes

~ yeet

flavour

[Elements]

@nsg I'm on your scripts page
this is very exciting

[northsidegal]

like as far as i can tell you're just agreeing with me as to what you're doing. so i guess my question is, assuming you aren't basically just claiming scum, why are you behaving this way as town?

assuming you agree that starting with a conclusion on someone's alignment and then working backwards to justify it is a bad thing / a thing that townies shouldn't do, i guess

[Kazyan]

Yes, I'm agreeing with you about what I'm doing. I'm not claiming scum; I'm just bad at forming logical arguments and am not always aware of when they're terrible. But then someone shows me why they suck and, oh, right. The reason that I'm folding is because my argument is logically incorrect, even though I have a gut feeling based on all of the posts that I've looked at that you're scum, but, like, I can't say that, because we're trying to have an adult discussion.

There's also the meta-point that, historically, the after-the-fact of situations like this is that people end up getting on my case for not being "confident" when I do eventually turn out to be right. So I'm reluctant to move the vote for personal reasons, and I've already been harped on for sweeping. But I'll do it anyway.

VOTE: Elements

E-1

[Kazyan]

*for sheeping

Onionade; it's what's for breakfast

[Elements]

It's unwnd
If not it's LM and Kazyan
But if it's not unwnd my reads are total garbage

[Elements]

nsg, if you want to move the wagon off me an onto Kazyan I will join you

[Kazyan]

...Well, I'll be darned. Opportunistically bargaining to move the wagon onto your one and only townread for the game? I guess Elements is scum after all.

[northsidegal]

UNVOTE:

[Elements]

...Well, I'll be darned. Opportunistically bargaining to move the wagon onto your one and only townread for the game? I guess Elements is scum after all.

where are you getting me town reading you from?

[Kazyan]

Who do you suspect, Elements?

Not Kazyan

[Elements]

that's fair

[Elements]

that was before you v nsg

[unwnd]

UNVOTE:

Just wanted to say this is appreciated

I'm backloaded to hell right now and this game will require the most out of me compared to the other ones, so I want to curate my thoughts very carefully before I give it more attention

[Elements]

what if it is kazyan and LM

[Elements]

what if I

am

wrong about unwnd

[northsidegal]

Are we sure these second night kills come from a vigilante rather than a serial killer?

@Dann, According to the wiki there is a Normal variant of Serial Killer. so possible?

dann any thoughts on these two posts or am i officially going conspiracy theory here

[Elements]

nsg are you up for towncasing unwnd for me?

[northsidegal]

the answer is a genuine no because i couldn't

[Elements]

fair

[unwnd]

The fact I'm not here and just arguing my way around conversation should tell you that my hesitance is of town

[Elements]

I don't like how I'm starting to scumread Kazyan above you now
UNVOTE:

[northsidegal]

Yes, I'm agreeing with you about what I'm doing. I'm not claiming scum; I'm just bad at forming logical arguments and am not always aware of when they're terrible. But then someone shows me why they suck and, oh, right. The reason that I'm folding is because my argument is logically incorrect, even though I have a gut feeling based on all of the posts that I've looked at that you're scum, but, like, I can't say that, because we're trying to have an adult discussion.

for the record (and this is a bit of a tangent here), i don't actually really care all that much about winning arguments or "out-debating" people, at least not inherently. obviously if i want to do anything with my reads i need to convince people on them, but i would much rather have a game where i had perfect reads but couldn't convince anyone of anything rather than a game where i convinced everyone to agree with me completely and ended up wrong, because i care more about my reads strength as a skill rather than convincing people as a skill (which, now that i think about it, might play into why i prefer town so much more than scum. never thought about it that way before).

in that sense i care a lot more about people's "self-actualization" in games a lot more than me having more logical arguments than them or whatever, and a lot of the times when i might make an argument at someone or pose a line of questioning to them it's about teasing out that self-actualization and internal thought process rather than in the moment trying to convince anyone of anything. at this point some hypothetical person might say "nsg this just sounds like you're describing scumhunting but in a really pretentious and self-aggrandizing manner", and to that i might say that i feel as though a lot of people scumhunt or ask questions to their scumreads with the end goal being that if the other person's arguments can be proven illogical then that means they're scum and if they're proven logical or consistent or whatever then they're proven town, but really i feel as though the

thought process itself

that the other person is going through is a lot more important than the conclusion itself (at least, a lot of the time – obviously you can still sometimes read people through their conclusions themselves rather than solely the process). i'm also not really pretending that this is some unique thing to me or something that i've "discovered" or anything.

i guess the point i am really trying to make here is that i would really prefer in a lot of cases to just see someone else's thought process clearly rather than beat that person in an argument, because the former helps a lot more with actually gathering reads on people. it doesn't help me at all when elements looks at everything i wrote and says "i can't argue against this". it might be gratifying to some people to have made some great argument that even the subject has to admit to, but that isn't my end goal – my end goal is to have good reads. similarly, i barely even know how to react to me posing that whole line of questioning to you and you saying "yeah, i guess that was kind of illogical". what i'm actually interested in is

why you thought what you did

, even if you now think it's illogical.

[northsidegal]

mm, after having done some more meta i think i'm back (if i was ever even gone in the first place) to thinking that elements scum is really the only responsible conclusion i can come to. i say "responsible conclusion" specifically because it just seems like almost all of the evidence that i look at points towards that direction, so what justification would i have to just ignore that? for instance, it

seemed

at first that elements had the tendency to post only around 50-60 posts in scum games consistently, i.e. was a sort-by-postcount player. but if you actually examine the post-per-day rates this "trend" was broken in mini theme 2094 and 2161, both of which had fairly high rates and were scum games. (if you think this is a ridiculous method of analysis, it's worked before)

i also really just can't seem to find a comparable town game when it comes to elements' sort of floating nature day one except for scum games, especially the naked and uncommented on L-1 vote (as also seen in mini theme 2412, another scum game)

aside from paranoia about other teams potentially making other people higher "priority" scumreads, the one thing i can think of in elements' defense is this:

Anyone else think NPOM's posts so far today have been severely lacking?
And the one about role madness PR fishing?

it

seems to me

that if the scumteam actually thinks that this is PR fishing then unwnd ought to have been shot over papa zito, and thus a scumteam with elements would have shot unwnd, whereas a scumteam like kaz / 2nd could have thought that zito was the vig and then planned that if they missed (or discussed after they missed – daytalk is enabled if i recall correctly) they'd propose the idea of the vig being a serial killer to try to get some fishing there. this isn't

exceptional

evidence, though. given that we (probably) know that the scumteam has a jailkeeper, it's possible that NPOM was blocked night one and yet the penguin shot still went through, and thus the scumteam knows that unwnd isn't the vig.

[Kazyan]

i guess the point i am really trying to make here is that i would really prefer in a lot of cases to just see someone else's thought process clearly rather than beat that person in an argument, because the former helps a lot more with actually gathering reads on people. it doesn't help me at all when elements looks at everything i wrote and says "i can't argue against this". it might be gratifying to some people to have made some great argument that even the subject has to admit to, but that isn't my end goal – my end goal is to have good reads. similarly, i barely even know how to react to me posing that whole line of questioning to you and you saying "yeah, i guess that was kind of illogical". what i'm actually interested in is

why you thought what you did

, even if you now think it's illogical.

Okay, so here was what I thought:

1) If "not looking for a scumteam" is a valid reason to consider Elements scummy, then it's a valid reason to consider other people scummy if they follow the same pattern, all else being equal.
2) The chart indicates that there are three people who behave in accordance with 1): Elements, northsidegal, and Dannflor. Therefore, these people are more likely to be scum.
3) Dannflor is town, by mod fiat, and can be excluded from consideration.
4) I have, or had reason to believe, that Elements is town. This is, or was, due to Hayker's D1 and D2 behavior.
5) I do not have any reason to believe that northsidegal is town. Therefore, northsidegal is now scummier to me.
6) All else being equal, I had previously considered unwnd, northsidegal, and Lunar to be equally scummy.
7) northsidegal is now the most scummy person. Therefore, I should vote northsidegal.