Mini Normal 2275: Roguelikes - Day 3: Endgame!
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Confidently Wrong Goon
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Also as a side note i normally abhor night 1 vig shots but this pme is actually helpful to me this time which is a rare first
Vigs still bad tho
I actually had a game i replaced into recently where i was completely wrong on scumreads but after 1 flip and a retuning i was able to get the whole team which i have confidence i can do here.
I am 100% sure gamma slot is town btw and they'll see me town so there's that-
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Confidently Wrong Goon
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This one*In post 1093, Confidently Wrong wrote:Also as a side note i normally abhor night 1 vig shots but this pme is actually helpful to me this time which is a rare first
Vigs still bad tho
I actually had a game i replaced into recently where i was completely wrong on scumreads but after 1 flip and a retuning i was able to get the whole team which i have confidence i can do here.
I am 100% sure gamma slot is town btw and they'll see me town so there's that-
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Confidently Wrong Goon
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I think mala and bbt are still town. Kenny actually i think drops to bottom 2 poe off this? I haven't reread game with new info in mind but that's the first thing that comes to mindIn post 1050, Fredrick A Campbell wrote:If any more last minute opinions on anything is asked for and I happen to be online, I won't mind giving it, or the information I lack such an opinion.
Keep in mind i thought i was right and thought id be dead+ its been 5 days since last dayphase.-
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Confidently Wrong Goon
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it's as simple as i thought they were in their town meta
Re: fancy i don't think anything in my entrance here was sus and it is exactly natural for a wrong townie who is reevaluating the gamestate and doesnt want to be pushed
I cant really explain longform and i can reread myself later and give more concrete responses-
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Confidently Wrong Goon
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On break now. Goal is to create a box of townies spewed rn - that being said just because someone pushed or was pushed by loftwing , it doesnt make them auto town. Remember that if we reach limlo. Lowell is one such slot - but only if mala is town. Context matters heavily. There were multiple dueling wagons and I'm strictly talking about anyone who pushed loft who was a dueling wagon with them. This means lowell+eira are not as cleared as the others - however i am not going to be looking first there. I know people wont like this take but it is a correct one that ensures we dont lose because we only looked at surface level logic of "they pushed scum hard!!"
I had a weird tinfoil based on how fancy was treating me going into this day but i think they were the one who did the meta dive so i think that slot is also pretty locktown.
If i had to locktown people at the moment:
Fancy
Irrelephant
Gamma(shoshin)
Likely town:
bbt(yall will hate me for this one but i sympathize with them. I after all did sheep their case, and that primarily becaue i was working off the false assumption loft was town)
Malcom - i still think the way they approach the game is how they do as town and the identifying factors - the extreme indecisiveness - was proof of that. I am still too wary and have tinfoils that prevent me from locking this in.
I forgot who else was in the game so uh i need to check playerlist before i post more-
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Confidently Wrong Goon
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Once i look at how wagons are i honestly feel i still have a vastly similar PoE? A game recently finished where i thought bbt was scum during night phase and i had BBT in poe because of that game but now that I know they were town there i have flipped my read there because of that.
The main thing i ask is people keep an open mind about this and allow me to do my work(trust me once i have evidence i can really case things well)-
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Confidently Wrong Goon
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I think its fair to see bbt and I as partnered but from my point of view, and bbts thats obviously... not possible so keep in mind that as town id be seeing things in a different POV adnd have a different view than most, notably being forced to consider slots others think are clear for (what i believe ) are weak distancing reasons.In post 1116, MalcolmTucker wrote:Funnily enough CW not pushing BBT at all does slightly soften my scumread a bit from very confident to relatively confident - I do feel like that'd be a useful slot for CW to be pushing given they TR'd Loftwing quite strong. Although, of course, there's not necessarily anything ruling out the two of them being scum together, much as I don't see it.
From where i sit, if the team is lowell loftwing eira - they were in deep shit all day and the fredrick wagon was a godsend.-
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Confidently Wrong Goon
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Bless you fredrick for doing votecounts that is a saving grace and will help us now lmao
Anyone got a tool that can create a votecount as of a certain post? Because i just need to see what viable wagons were at key points - like i said, i think i had a different piece of the puzzle d1, was pushing it correctly and was pushing against people with another piece. (As is common in games !)-
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Confidently Wrong Goon
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Like wagons d1 were lowell/loftwing
When lowell was getting wagoned, lowell unexplained jumped on loft. Viable bus, and what i believe was what happened at this point(pending deeper reread, mobile gaming har
Same thing happened with eira
What i need lowell to do is explain their progression and how they reached a vote on loftwing.-
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Confidently Wrong Goon
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Ellaborate.In post 1147, Irrelephant11 wrote:lowell isn't scum-
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Confidently Wrong Goon
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The various weird posts felt like a soft.In post 1160, Irrelephant11 wrote:cw please explain your frederick PR-read-
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Confidently Wrong Goon
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Except if both are under duress at the same time.In post 1163, Irrelephant11 wrote:
lowell pushing loftwing when under duress is clearingIn post 1161, Confidently Wrong wrote:The first post is the only one i find clearing as the others i belive were around where lowell has pressure on him too
I have to check context but id clear lowell till limlo if the first vote was not under duress-
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Confidently Wrong Goon
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Im at workIn post 1170, Irrelephant11 wrote:sure, I'm doing that. but you're also just itt and I want votes on kenny. Not sure what danger there is for you in being vote #2-
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Confidently Wrong Goon
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Ah yes being town means you are correct. My bad. I forgot how mafia works. Thats why despite getting a town role pm i am scum because i was wrong. Town cant be wrong.In post 1174, Irrelephant11 wrote:like try this on for size: "I have no clear read on kenny but obvtown irrelephant wants me to help pressure kenny so for now, VOTE: kennyVOTE: [v/]"
we're not going to accidentally rush a flip on town!kenny. We're on evens, and fancy wants to locktown kenny-
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Confidently Wrong Goon
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Oh so the game eira referenced that was in progesss during d1 finished, i saw it finish because when eira referenced it i read through it. I did not change my mind at the time and it actually made me laugh they referenced it because it was notably different from this one.
I cede i could be wrong on lowell but im absolutely right on eira and anyone trying to tell me otherwise is cope.-
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Confidently Wrong Goon
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VOTE: kennyIn post 1184, Irrelephant11 wrote:
I didn't say or imply any of this. I am literally just asking you to join my wagon so my wagon is more effective at pressuring kenny. I'm not asking you to hammer, I'm not asking you to assume I'm right, I'm not asking you to scumclaim. Literally just a vote. Not sure why it's triggering youIn post 1177, Confidently Wrong wrote:
Ah yes being town means you are correct. My bad. I forgot how mafia works. Thats why despite getting a town role pm i am scum because i was wrong. Town cant be wrong.In post 1174, Irrelephant11 wrote:like try this on for size: "I have no clear read on kenny but obvtown irrelephant wants me to help pressure kenny so for now, VOTE: kennyVOTE: [v/]"
we're not going to accidentally rush a flip on town!kenny. We're on evens, and fancy wants to locktown kenny
Fine. But it doesnt mean anything when my vote is temporary until i feel ready to let the day end.(which we are nowhere near)-
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Confidently Wrong Goon
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A lot less verbose than said towngame you referenced to defend yourself eh?In post 1185, Eiralox wrote:lol-
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Confidently Wrong
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Lowell if youre town, i beg you to oblige to explain your thought processes because if we are indeed town v town then it will be disastrous for the game should we have a more difficult solve here. As is I feel you are simply stating reads that are convenient for the gamestate for scum you. Finding eachother town if this is town/town will likely destroy scum here. Same with any other slot in PoE. Except eira. You're already caught to me <3-
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Confidently Wrong Goon
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That's fair. I am a highly logical player who enjoys occams razor where it should be applied.In post 1192, Irrelephant11 wrote:wish I was bad at scum but I have nothing to help your paranoia except that I think my braindead holiday weekend play looks pretty good with a loftwing flip that I couldn't have planned for
Unless theres an uber deepscum in the consensus town, like shoshin slot, i feel this is a highly winnable game with PRs(considering i beleive there is a PT cop or a gunsmith, considering the flips so far, and i would hope... theyd have checked me. I have other PR thoughts but I'll keep them to myself.-
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Confidently Wrong Goon
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Scumreading multiple slots on day 1. . Oh no a crime...In post 1195, Eiralox wrote:
my post, for which i was warned, and therefore will not reference again in this game, boiled down to: i hate meta. i do. i always will. you need a better argument for scum eira at this point.In post 1188, Confidently Wrong wrote:
A lot less verbose than said towngame you referenced to defend yourself eh?In post 1185, Eiralox wrote:lol
Here are the facts Confidently Wrong:
You were scumreading lowell, eira, irrel and toffee at various points. You hinted at Fred being PR. You voted Fred with the latter grouping, including Malakittens who you also scumread who expressed willingness to hammer. You most vehemently townread Loftwing out of all of us.
UNVOTE: Kenny-
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Confidently Wrong Goon
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Confidently Wrong Goon
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Idk how to explain it but its like one of those really subtle tells that i learned from other websites that applies to some people that theyll refer to themselves accidentally in the 3rd person. I believe it has to do with the fact that scum lying will be detached from their own slot ? Idk how to explain it.
Its nothing i expect anyone else to actualy follow nor should they without proper context of said tell but i just found it funny they also did that.-
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Confidently Wrong Goon
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Primary reason for this is i think i would have maybe died if lowell was scum because having 2/3 scum pinned is a good reason to kill. Just townreading lowell would not be enough in that case.In post 1202, Confidently Wrong wrote:I'm more open to lowell town fwiw based on some things i considered.myself based on how they opened the day and also some of the arguments presented.
Which could just mean kenny/eira ??-
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Confidently Wrong Goon
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In post 1020, Cat Scratch Fever wrote:I'm back from my trip, but I'm kind of mentally dead bc hangover
I was town on Fred, because they seem to be naturally reassessing their reads (their reads would change at times when I thought it made sense to), but if it comes down to the wire, i will probably be willing to vote anyone.
Does anyone townread Lowell? I'd be interested in hearing whyIn post 1022, Cat Scratch Fever wrote:Fred jumped off of eiralox before irrel or cw. That felt distinctly towny, and i don't see how that is sheeping
The way i open csf iso right back up and lowell town theory goes straight in the trash lmaoooIn post 1038, Cat Scratch Fever wrote:
Btw about the caseIn post 1035, Cat Scratch Fever wrote:I should be around to hammer if needed
But I'm not feeling the case
I feel like the lhf that Fred voted for are scummy (Lowell, mala)
Malcolm also mentioned early that he doesn't tend to vote much as a playstyle-
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Confidently Wrong Goon
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What's so difficult about explaining your loftwing vote?In post 1206, Eiralox wrote:yeah im not jumping in the mud with you. if u just now noticed my eira habit u havent been reading. if u get me voted off today ill shave my hair off.
VOTE: Confidently Wrong for gnats 'n giggles. I mean kenny's wariness of voting loft is my number one case there right now, but.... i'm wrong a lot so no discounting other pairings... on the off chance that conf. wr. is town.... then i don't know who third is but i'm pretty sure second is kenny.
Not gonna hear much more from me until i get the itch to actually start building cases.... i did write a fair bit bout kenny D1 so guess that's where i'll start expanding when i can be so arsed.
Good luck out there ya'll and have fun -.--
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Confidently Wrong Goon
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Oh my god... thats awkward as i scroll further upIn post 904, Cat Scratch Fever wrote:
You didn’t consider that Eiralox and loftwing were svsIn post 890, MalcolmTucker wrote:
It's not, I'm explaining why I don't think Eiralox is scum by reasoning why they wouldn't back off Loftwing if they were.In post 873, Cat Scratch Fever wrote:
This post seems to exclusively assume loftwing will flip town - why?In post 860, MalcolmTucker wrote:
Unless Eiralox is gambling on Loftwing going out anyway/can rely on the wagon being pushed through by fellow scum, this is an incredibly townie post given Eiralox has been under pressure themselves and has been a possible elimination for the latter half of day one. Even if they don't feel they can vote Loftwing if the slot is town, I don't think there would be any benefit for scum actively leaving the wagon at the moment.In post 846, Eiralox wrote:UNVOTE: Loftwing
Loftwing has offered us nothing. they've been.... openly non-committal. Seeing as it's at -1 im unvoting to give Loft time, some1 might go on and hammer anyway at this point and i don't see the value in that. at least.... try.
but in a twisted way loftwing can still flip town so idk..... will i vote there again? lowell wagon... no. fred? i can totally see scum fred, but the fact that they thoroughly asked me to share my viewpoint then shifted to mala is.... something which makes me wary of mobbing fred 2day.
So loftwing idk i mean i guess my vote can shift back to u at this point, i'm not having options atm. but i wann at least give you time... if u do nothing impressive in the interim well meh.
If loftwing flipped scum (which you should be considering giving you’re voting for them), what would you conclude about Eiralox’s alignment-
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Confidently Wrong Goon
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When u see a post that unaligns you from flipped scum >>>>> poggers in the chatIn post 122, Loftwing wrote:It was a way to extort a read out of CW, which reflects bad on anyone not wishing to do the same on someone else.-
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Did no one open up loftwing iso after they flipped roflIn post 234, Loftwing wrote:
Currently they have little credibility in my eyes, and I don't trust a word that comes from their fingers. I would be willing to throw a vote down on them should the current wagons cease to prevail.In post 219, Irrelephant11 wrote:Loftwing what do you think about Confidently Wrong?
Anyone town scumreading me should do so immediately LMAOOO
I love when scum spew me town after i defend them lolol-
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Confidently Wrong Goon
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You seem a bit too upset after we got a scum flip. And really are quite allergic to discussing your logic on voting loftwing.In post 1214, Eiralox wrote:i mean it, i'll really shave my hair off. i'm interested in how you'll pull this one off, i'll give you some time even >.<
You should have killed me. Csf has no thread pull as town.-
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In post 566, Loftwing wrote:VOTE: Eiralox
Dearest Eiralox,
I hope this vote finda you in good health
and in a prosperous position to put wealth
into the pockets of people like me, down on their luck
you see, your readlist is not something to fuck.
I can understand nullreading everyone around you, to keep your options cleared and your paths open. However, it feels rather contradictory when you state that CW and CSF, two users whom's initialisms start with C, are both indistinguishably equal. Please answer the the following charge that I am putting against you now:
You say that CW is null to you, however in your own posts, you say that they feel worse and worse to you as well. How can you read them as being the same as Kenny, a user whom you have greenlit while also keeping them inside the nightmarishly thin grouping of null? This is a charge of nonsensical behaviour, and should this remain unresolved, the punishment shall be death.
Yours Truly,
Daker, Loftwing.In post 608, Loftwing wrote:
Excuse me, dearest Eiralox? You are forming reads?In post 592, Eiralox wrote:In post 589, FancyPants wrote: Ididsay that if you are town I don't mind eliminating you anyway, because I find your posts too confusing, and your thought process impenetrable - so we're never going to be able to effectively work together.
yeah again i'm right "Fancy is confused so want Eira dead." what a farce. In what world do you wanna elim an active player who's forming reads and getting things going over Mala, whose done jack squat, or Loft, who's vapid air?
I'm not feeling good about your reasoning here Pants. You're nearing my scumleans.
Well, if you are, then tell us. Light up the stage with your readlist, whatever you may have. I would love to see who has moved out of being null for you.In post 610, Loftwing wrote:
What I am saying is this:In post 607, Eiralox wrote:Whoooopy ride man wtf is going on here. Ive felt better about kenny. Cw I wanted to expand. Theyve been one sentencing this game. Loftwing is my prob vote target atm. Ill go through what they did then come back with conclusion.
Kenny is good to you. They are what you have considered to be greenlit.
CW is bad to you. They are what you have considered to be "worse and worse".
They are both null to you.
So, one would conclude that Kenny =/= CW for the first and second statements, but then would conclude that Kenny = CW at the third, which is a contradiction.
You both imply they are different yet state they are the same. Which is it, my good, honorable, and reasonable man?In post 679, Loftwing wrote:
How am I lying? You've stated at least thrice that eveeyone is null. Up to this very post you have yet to make a distinction between a nullread and any other read, amd even now I am suspicious about whether or not those 3 players you have listed as leaning green are acutally a townlean for you, or if they are actually still null.In post 611, Eiralox wrote:Loftwing now you straight up lie. If you have paid any attention youda seen I lean green on malcolm, elephant, cat.
Kenny and cw null. Ive felt better about kenny and worse about cw.
VOTE: Loftwing
Scummiest one on me. Ill come back later in day with analysis. Peace.
Spoiler: A brief history of Eiralox categorizing everyone as nullIn post 807, Loftwing wrote:
Where did I definitively state that I would never, under any circumstance, say I would ever hunt scum? This is a falsehood that is wholly untrue. I have yet to say this, and moreover, it would be a ridiculous thing to say.In post 775, Eiralox wrote:Summary of loftwing these past few pages: they basically state theyre not gonna hunt scum and only do effort to darken folk who already git wagons. They only focus on eira, pushing fred, asking why the shift of eira? Nothing looks good here.
I offer my apologies to eira. And to the scumteam: get fucked if you thought id tunnel eira to the death without doing my due dillegence to sort them properlyIn post 809, Loftwing wrote:
This is accurate. I am not currently solving the game, instead riding the waves and seeing where it takes me.In post 776, Eiralox wrote:VOTE: Loftwing
welp at least now vc is accu. I see no solving from loftwing. I see no relish for the hunt. The fact that kenny and loft are now voting together should be noted.
Dont expect much more from me today.-
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I feel bad bc i should have been open to the fact i was scumreading playstyle and thats my bad.
I did see the exact post that made me feel.loftwing was town because it looked very thoughtful and complex and reminded me of town Loftwing. Honestly kudos to loft bc it was a really good post to make as scum
Sorry for flooding thread btw just laying out thought process and all-
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Gamma scumreadersIn post 810, Shoshin wrote:
Behold, a scum.In post 809, Loftwing wrote:I am not currently solving the game, instead riding the waves and seeing where it takes me.-
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This is a source of my loft townread btwIn post 610, Loftwing wrote:
What I am saying is this:In post 607, Eiralox wrote:Whoooopy ride man wtf is going on here. Ive felt better about kenny. Cw I wanted to expand. Theyve been one sentencing this game. Loftwing is my prob vote target atm. Ill go through what they did then come back with conclusion.
Kenny is good to you. They are what you have considered to be greenlit.
CW is bad to you. They are what you have considered to be "worse and worse".
They are both null to you.
So, one would conclude that Kenny =/= CW for the first and second statements, but then would conclude that Kenny = CW at the third, which is a contradiction.
You both imply they are different yet state they are the same. Which is it, my good, honorable, and reasonable man?-
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Your hair shall be intact
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