Mini Normal 2275: Roguelikes - Day 3: Endgame!

[Confidently Wrong]

Yes i think it is stupid to think townies are an informed party wgo know they are wrong

[Confidently Wrong]

Also as a side note i normally abhor night 1 vig shots but this pme is actually helpful to me this time which is a rare first

Vigs still bad tho


I actually had a game i replaced into recently where i was completely wrong on scumreads but after 1 flip and a retuning i was able to get the whole team which i have confidence i can do here.

I am 100% sure gamma slot is town btw and they'll see me town so there's that

[Confidently Wrong]

Also as a side note i normally abhor night 1 vig shots but this pme is actually helpful to me this time which is a rare first

Vigs still bad tho


I actually had a game i replaced into recently where i was completely wrong on scumreads but after 1 flip and a retuning i was able to get the whole team which i have confidence i can do here.

I am 100% sure gamma slot is town btw and they'll see me town so there's that

This one*

[Confidently Wrong]

If any more last minute opinions on anything is asked for and I happen to be online, I won't mind giving it, or the information I lack such an opinion.

I think mala and bbt are still town. Kenny actually i think drops to bottom 2 poe off this? I haven't reread game with new info in mind but that's the first thing that comes to mind


Keep in mind i thought i was right and thought id be dead+ its been 5 days since last dayphase.

[Confidently Wrong]

it's as simple as i thought they were in their town meta

Re: fancy i don't think anything in my entrance here was sus and it is exactly natural for a wrong townie who is reevaluating the gamestate and doesnt want to be pushed
I cant really explain longform and i can reread myself later and give more concrete responses

[Confidently Wrong]

Also im not answering any PR related probes. Your interest is weird.

Gamma knows how to read me + if i was scum he was dead tonight.
Gamma this is koba btw

[Confidently Wrong]

On break now. Goal is to create a box of townies spewed rn - that being said just because someone pushed or was pushed by loftwing , it doesnt make them auto town. Remember that if we reach limlo. Lowell is one such slot - but only if mala is town. Context matters heavily. There were multiple dueling wagons and I'm strictly talking about anyone who pushed loft who was a dueling wagon with them. This means lowell+eira are not as cleared as the others - however i am not going to be looking first there. I know people wont like this take but it is a correct one that ensures we dont lose because we only looked at surface level logic of "they pushed scum hard!!"

I had a weird tinfoil based on how fancy was treating me going into this day but i think they were the one who did the meta dive so i think that slot is also pretty locktown.

If i had to locktown people at the moment:

Fancy
Irrelephant
Gamma(shoshin)

Likely town:
bbt(yall will hate me for this one but i sympathize with them. I after all did sheep their case, and that primarily becaue i was working off the false assumption loft was town)
Malcom - i still think the way they approach the game is how they do as town and the identifying factors - the extreme indecisiveness - was proof of that. I am still too wary and have tinfoils that prevent me from locking this in.

I forgot who else was in the game so uh i need to check playerlist before i post more

[Confidently Wrong]

Once i look at how wagons are i honestly feel i still have a vastly similar PoE? A game recently finished where i thought bbt was scum during night phase and i had BBT in poe because of that game but now that I know they were town there i have flipped my read there because of that.

The main thing i ask is people keep an open mind about this and allow me to do my work(trust me once i have evidence i can really case things well)

[Confidently Wrong]

Funnily enough CW not pushing BBT at all does slightly soften my scumread a bit from very confident to relatively confident - I do feel like that'd be a useful slot for CW to be pushing given they TR'd Loftwing quite strong. Although, of course, there's not necessarily anything ruling out the two of them being scum together, much as I don't see it.

I think its fair to see bbt and I as partnered but from my point of view, and bbts thats obviously... not possible so keep in mind that as town id be seeing things in a different POV adnd have a different view than most, notably being forced to consider slots others think are clear for (what i believe ) are weak distancing reasons.

From where i sit, if the team is lowell loftwing eira - they were in deep shit all day and the fredrick wagon was a godsend.

[Confidently Wrong]

Bless you fredrick for doing votecounts that is a saving grace and will help us now lmao

Anyone got a tool that can create a votecount as of a certain post? Because i just need to see what viable wagons were at key points - like i said, i think i had a different piece of the puzzle d1, was pushing it correctly and was pushing against people with another piece. (As is common in games !)

[Confidently Wrong]

Like wagons d1 were lowell/loftwing

When lowell was getting wagoned, lowell unexplained jumped on loft. Viable bus, and what i believe was what happened at this point(pending deeper reread, mobile gaming har

Same thing happened with eira

What i need lowell to do is explain their progression and how they reached a vote on loftwing.

[Confidently Wrong]

Wild that i posted a bunch of things calling lowell scum and it was completely invisible to him
Did he see people considering gamma and decided that mislim needs to happen now
Lets hear some reasoning lowell

[Confidently Wrong]

I welcome you to call logic thats perfectly reasonable "contrived " as it only strengthens my confidence my theory is correct
Explain your reads (: tick tock

[Confidently Wrong]

Also speaking of that i can more accurately show what i saw frlm loftwing that caused me to see them town - although eira/lowell my biggest scumreads that day pres voting there made me towntunneled on the slot

[Confidently Wrong]

Malcom youre doing the 1 dimensional analysis thing again

[Confidently Wrong]

Jesus christ malcom did you even read a single post from any other player before the vote

[Confidently Wrong]

Lowell simultaneously pushing me and shoshin when shoshin is extremely unpaired with me is wild

[Confidently Wrong]

lowell isn't scum

Ellaborate.

[Confidently Wrong]

The first post is the only one i find clearing as the others i belive were around where lowell has pressure on him too
I have to check context but id clear lowell till limlo if the first vote was not under duress

[Confidently Wrong]

cw please explain your frederick PR-read

The various weird posts felt like a soft.

[Confidently Wrong]

The first post is the only one i find clearing as the others i belive were around where lowell has pressure on him too
I have to check context but id clear lowell till limlo if the first vote was not under duress

lowell pushing loftwing when under duress is clearing

Except if both are under duress at the same time.

[Confidently Wrong]

Irrelephant i understand you are trying to see if im.paired with a possible scum kenny but the reason im avoiding that slot is due to history of misreading, not because im scum. I want time to analyze before i commit anywhere. Rushing into another lim after a scum death is how games are lost

[Confidently Wrong]

sure, I'm doing that. but you're also just itt and I want votes on kenny. Not sure what danger there is for you in being vote #2

Im at work

[Confidently Wrong]

like try this on for size: "I have no clear read on kenny but obvtown irrelephant wants me to help pressure kenny so for now, VOTE: kennyVOTE: [v/]"

we're not going to accidentally rush a flip on town!kenny. We're on evens, and fancy wants to locktown kenny

Ah yes being town means you are correct. My bad. I forgot how mafia works. Thats why despite getting a town role pm i am scum because i was wrong. Town cant be wrong.

[Confidently Wrong]

My ambivalence and lack of wish to defend kenny is as much pressure to the slot as im willing to give. And i was already clear on wanting to reread most of d1 at least becore i commit

[Confidently Wrong]

I dont know if you remember but i gave pressure on kenny early on day 1, now we have evidence. My vote is not that flinsy anymore. Earn it.

[Confidently Wrong]

Oh so the game eira referenced that was in progesss during d1 finished, i saw it finish because when eira referenced it i read through it. I did not change my mind at the time and it actually made me laugh they referenced it because it was notably different from this one.


I cede i could be wrong on lowell but im absolutely right on eira and anyone trying to tell me otherwise is cope.

[Confidently Wrong]

I completely forgot bc it happened during night 1, a time I was still expecting to be nightkilled.
Im also going to look into csfs reads when i do my reread because csf was not a super pushy slot and if they were killed it was absolutely because she was right abt something

[Confidently Wrong]

like try this on for size: "I have no clear read on kenny but obvtown irrelephant wants me to help pressure kenny so for now, VOTE: kennyVOTE: [v/]"

we're not going to accidentally rush a flip on town!kenny. We're on evens, and fancy wants to locktown kenny

Ah yes being town means you are correct. My bad. I forgot how mafia works. Thats why despite getting a town role pm i am scum because i was wrong. Town cant be wrong.

I didn't say or imply any of this. I am literally just asking you to join my wagon so my wagon is more effective at pressuring kenny. I'm not asking you to hammer, I'm not asking you to assume I'm right, I'm not asking you to scumclaim. Literally just a vote. Not sure why it's triggering you

VOTE: kenny
Fine. But it doesnt mean anything when my vote is temporary until i feel ready to let the day end.(which we are nowhere near)

[Confidently Wrong]

lol

A lot less verbose than said towngame you referenced to defend yourself eh?

[Confidently Wrong]

VOTE: kenny

[Confidently Wrong]

irrelephant, can you describe your scum meta and whether or not your play this game is reasonable within it? Just satiate my tinfoil. Doesnt need to be anything complicated, im taking you on your word and if my paranoia flares up again ill have something to compare to meta to verify.

[Confidently Wrong]

Lowell if youre town, i beg you to oblige to explain your thought processes because if we are indeed town v town then it will be disastrous for the game should we have a more difficult solve here. As is I feel you are simply stating reads that are convenient for the gamestate for scum you. Finding eachother town if this is town/town will likely destroy scum here. Same with any other slot in PoE. Except eira. You're already caught to me <3

[Confidently Wrong]

wish I was bad at scum but I have nothing to help your paranoia except that I think my braindead holiday weekend play looks pretty good with a loftwing flip that I couldn't have planned for

That's fair. I am a highly logical player who enjoys occams razor where it should be applied.
Unless theres an uber deepscum in the consensus town, like shoshin slot, i feel this is a highly winnable game with PRs(considering i beleive there is a PT cop or a gunsmith, considering the flips so far, and i would hope... theyd have checked me. I have other PR thoughts but I'll keep them to myself.

[Confidently Wrong]

lol

A lot less verbose than said towngame you referenced to defend yourself eh?

my post, for which i was warned, and therefore will not reference again in this game, boiled down to: i hate meta. i do. i always will. you need a better argument for scum eira at this point.

Here are the facts Confidently Wrong:

You were scumreading lowell, eira, irrel and toffee at various points. You hinted at Fred being PR. You voted Fred with the latter grouping, including Malakittens who you also scumread who expressed willingness to hammer. You most vehemently townread Loftwing out of all of us.

UNVOTE: Kenny

Scumreading multiple slots on day 1. . Oh no a crime...

[Confidently Wrong]

Why did you vote loftwing, eira?

[Confidently Wrong]

Wait did eira just refer to themselves in the 3rd person rofl

Unironically thats the scummiest thing theyve done all game

[Confidently Wrong]

Idk how to explain it but its like one of those really subtle tells that i learned from other websites that applies to some people that theyll refer to themselves accidentally in the 3rd person. I believe it has to do with the fact that scum lying will be detached from their own slot ? Idk how to explain it.

Its nothing i expect anyone else to actualy follow nor should they without proper context of said tell but i just found it funny they also did that.

[Confidently Wrong]

I'm more open to lowell town fwiw based on some things i considered.myself based on how they opened the day and also some of the arguments presented.
Which could just mean kenny/eira ??

[Confidently Wrong]

I should really stop making takes for now and just wait to read LOL
I do urge others to do a reread with knowledge of the flips - fredrick did put up votecounts throughout if anyone needs em.

[Confidently Wrong]

Fwiw im sorting kenny strictly through poe because i have fuck all confidence in reading them.

[Confidently Wrong]

I'm more open to lowell town fwiw based on some things i considered.myself based on how they opened the day and also some of the arguments presented.
Which could just mean kenny/eira ??

Primary reason for this is i think i would have maybe died if lowell was scum because having 2/3 scum pinned is a good reason to kill. Just townreading lowell would not be enough in that case.

[Confidently Wrong]

I'm back from my trip, but I'm kind of mentally dead bc hangover

I was town on Fred, because they seem to be naturally reassessing their reads (their reads would change at times when I thought it made sense to), but if it comes down to the wire, i will probably be willing to vote anyone.

Does anyone townread Lowell? I'd be interested in hearing why

Fred jumped off of eiralox before irrel or cw. That felt distinctly towny, and i don't see how that is sheeping

I should be around to hammer if needed

But I'm not feeling the case

Btw about the case

I feel like the lhf that Fred voted for are scummy (Lowell, mala)

Malcolm also mentioned early that he doesn't tend to vote much as a playstyle

The way i open csf iso right back up and lowell town theory goes straight in the trash lmaooo

[Confidently Wrong]

yeah im not jumping in the mud with you. if u just now noticed my eira habit u havent been reading. if u get me voted off today ill shave my hair off.

VOTE: Confidently Wrong for gnats 'n giggles. I mean kenny's wariness of voting loft is my number one case there right now, but.... i'm wrong a lot so no discounting other pairings... on the off chance that conf. wr. is town.... then i don't know who third is but i'm pretty sure second is kenny.

Not gonna hear much more from me until i get the itch to actually start building cases.... i did write a fair bit bout kenny D1 so guess that's where i'll start expanding when i can be so arsed.

Good luck out there ya'll and have fun -.-

What's so difficult about explaining your loftwing vote?

[Confidently Wrong]

Sorry did you think that a bus would be that easy that no one asks to see your work?

[Confidently Wrong]

UNVOTE: Loftwing

Loftwing has offered us nothing. they've been.... openly non-committal. Seeing as it's at -1 im unvoting to give Loft time, some1 might go on and hammer anyway at this point and i don't see the value in that. at least.... try.



but in a twisted way loftwing can still flip town so idk..... will i vote there again? lowell wagon... no. fred? i can totally see scum fred, but the fact that they thoroughly asked me to share my viewpoint then shifted to mala is.... something which makes me wary of mobbing fred 2day.

So loftwing idk i mean i guess my vote can shift back to u at this point, i'm not having options atm. but i wann at least give you time... if u do nothing impressive in the interim well meh.

Unless Eiralox is gambling on Loftwing going out anyway/can rely on the wagon being pushed through by fellow scum, this is an incredibly townie post given Eiralox has been under pressure themselves and has been a possible elimination for the latter half of day one. Even if they don't feel they can vote Loftwing if the slot is town, I don't think there would be any benefit for scum actively leaving the wagon at the moment.

This post seems to exclusively assume loftwing will flip town - why?

It's not, I'm explaining why I don't think Eiralox is scum by reasoning why they wouldn't back off Loftwing if they were.

You didn’t consider that Eiralox and loftwing were svs

If loftwing flipped scum (which you should be considering giving you’re voting for them), what would you conclude about Eiralox’s alignment

Oh my god... thats awkward as i scroll further up

[Confidently Wrong]

Yeah that actually explains why in a lowell/eira world dont die

[Confidently Wrong]

Yeah seeing how lowell treated csf too do be outting lmao

Sorry irrelephant im back to my tunnel

[Confidently Wrong]

It was a way to extort a read out of CW, which reflects bad on anyone not wishing to do the same on someone else.

When u see a post that unaligns you from flipped scum >>>>> poggers in the chat

[Confidently Wrong]

Loftwing what do you think about Confidently Wrong?

Currently they have little credibility in my eyes, and I don't trust a word that comes from their fingers. I would be willing to throw a vote down on them should the current wagons cease to prevail.

Did no one open up loftwing iso after they flipped rofl

Anyone town scumreading me should do so immediately LMAOOO

I love when scum spew me town after i defend them lolol

[Confidently Wrong]

i mean it, i'll really shave my hair off. i'm interested in how you'll pull this one off, i'll give you some time even >.<

You seem a bit too upset after we got a scum flip. And really are quite allergic to discussing your logic on voting loftwing.

You should have killed me. Csf has no thread pull as town.

[Confidently Wrong]

Ok this is kinda awkward but i scrolled down loftwing iso and uh im kinda feeling that eira/loftwing are unpaired or did decent scum theater...

Big oops.

[Confidently Wrong]

VOTE: Eiralox

Dearest Eiralox,

I hope this vote finda you in good health
and in a prosperous position to put wealth
into the pockets of people like me, down on their luck
you see, your readlist is not something to fuck.

I can understand nullreading everyone around you, to keep your options cleared and your paths open. However, it feels rather contradictory when you state that CW and CSF, two users whom's initialisms start with C, are both indistinguishably equal. Please answer the the following charge that I am putting against you now:

You say that CW is null to you, however in your own posts, you say that they feel worse and worse to you as well. How can you read them as being the same as Kenny, a user whom you have greenlit while also keeping them inside the nightmarishly thin grouping of null? This is a charge of nonsensical behaviour, and should this remain unresolved, the punishment shall be death.

Yours Truly,

Daker, Loftwing.

I

did

say that if you are town I don't mind eliminating you anyway, because I find your posts too confusing, and your thought process impenetrable - so we're never going to be able to effectively work together.

yeah again i'm right "Fancy is confused so want Eira dead." what a farce. In what world do you wanna elim an active player who's forming reads and getting things going over Mala, whose done jack squat, or Loft, who's vapid air?

I'm not feeling good about your reasoning here Pants. You're nearing my scumleans.

Excuse me, dearest Eiralox? You are forming reads?

Well, if you are, then tell us. Light up the stage with your readlist, whatever you may have. I would love to see who has moved out of being null for you.

Whoooopy ride man wtf is going on here. Ive felt better about kenny. Cw I wanted to expand. Theyve been one sentencing this game. Loftwing is my prob vote target atm. Ill go through what they did then come back with conclusion.

What I am saying is this:

Kenny is good to you. They are what you have considered to be greenlit.

CW is bad to you. They are what you have considered to be "worse and worse".

They are both null to you.

So, one would conclude that Kenny =/= CW for the first and second statements, but then would conclude that Kenny = CW at the third, which is a contradiction.

You both imply they are different yet state they are the same. Which is it, my good, honorable, and reasonable man?

Loftwing now you straight up lie. If you have paid any attention youda seen I lean green on malcolm, elephant, cat.

Kenny and cw null. Ive felt better about kenny and worse about cw.

VOTE: Loftwing

Scummiest one on me. Ill come back later in day with analysis. Peace.

How am I lying? You've stated at least thrice that eveeyone is null. Up to this very post you have yet to make a distinction between a nullread and any other read, amd even now I am suspicious about whether or not those 3 players you have listed as leaning green are acutally a townlean for you, or if they are actually still null.

Spoiler: A brief history of Eiralox categorizing everyone as null

fancypants iso: feels town. throws a broad net.

scum! arguments that they tunnel on loftwing and kenny, but that's not strong enough a theme for eira to be concerned about atm.

out of the 12 players in my null pile, pants is greenish

.

your reads you posted earlier feel very half hearted and ingenuine


and your treatment of lowell felt very distancy - in the sense that you are even currently willing to vote me over lowell after never expressing an actual townread there - and also stated you were basing scumreads off that slot.


all in all it seems you are trying to flip townies while positioning yourself as having your partner Lowell in your scumreads to later try to claim you pushed them all along.

lol.. '

alll 12 of ya are in my null pile.

i got feels but dont expect me to stay on d1 votes. and i'm not gonna defend myself against this, i have no concern about this line of reasoning bearing fruition.

you woulda done better by saying i was protecting my scum partner mala, there's more playroom for an attack for you there.

i mean i've affirmed my willingnes to vote mala and ive said lowell is in the bottom of my pile so this entire reasoning here(along with mala inactive total null) for a team is... what? just the three u find most scummy?



game solved well played bravo

You say that but you did not vote Mala with me when I was voting there for pressure nor did you maintain your vote on lowell. you jumped to this uncharitable assumption that I must be scum *merely for including you alongside 2 other people you claim to also find not town*

i never scumread u dolt!

read and remeber everything my ass i said im not scumreading u and alll 12 are still null

, nut im feeling way worse about u now then i did back then.

Summary of loftwing these past few pages: they basically state theyre not gonna hunt scum and only do effort to darken folk who already git wagons. They only focus on eira, pushing fred, asking why the shift of eira? Nothing looks good here.

Where did I definitively state that I would never, under any circumstance, say I would ever hunt scum? This is a falsehood that is wholly untrue. I have yet to say this, and moreover, it would be a ridiculous thing to say.

VOTE: Loftwing

welp at least now vc is accu. I see no solving from loftwing. I see no relish for the hunt. The fact that kenny and loft are now voting together should be noted.

Dont expect much more from me today.

This is accurate. I am not currently solving the game, instead riding the waves and seeing where it takes me.

I offer my apologies to eira. And to the scumteam: get fucked if you thought id tunnel eira to the death without doing my due dillegence to sort them properly

[Confidently Wrong]

I feel bad bc i should have been open to the fact i was scumreading playstyle and thats my bad.

I did see the exact post that made me feel.loftwing was town because it looked very thoughtful and complex and reminded me of town Loftwing. Honestly kudos to loft bc it was a really good post to make as scum

Sorry for flooding thread btw just laying out thought process and all

[Confidently Wrong]

I am not currently solving the game, instead riding the waves and seeing where it takes me.

Behold, a scum.

Gamma scumreaders

[Confidently Wrong]

Im like anxiously waiting for people's reaction to my eira 180 bc like i feel like that's momentum shifting and i wanna see it

[Confidently Wrong]

Whoooopy ride man wtf is going on here. Ive felt better about kenny. Cw I wanted to expand. Theyve been one sentencing this game. Loftwing is my prob vote target atm. Ill go through what they did then come back with conclusion.

What I am saying is this:

Kenny is good to you. They are what you have considered to be greenlit.

CW is bad to you. They are what you have considered to be "worse and worse".

They are both null to you.

So, one would conclude that Kenny =/= CW for the first and second statements, but then would conclude that Kenny = CW at the third, which is a contradiction.

You both imply they are different yet state they are the same. Which is it, my good, honorable, and reasonable man?

This is a source of my loft townread btw

[Confidently Wrong]

UNVOTE: Confidently Wrong

i mean that's it from me for a long while.

Your hair shall be intact

[Confidently Wrong]

gamma clearly frozen and crying in scum chat(joke i still townread the slot btw lol)

[Confidently Wrong]

I literally flip my biggest scumread into a townread and no one blinked are yall even reading the game i swear

townspewey tho of the ones responding

[Confidently Wrong]

VOTE: Confidently Wrong

Giving it a good go but I'm struggling to see this slot coming back as town.

live look of someone who doesnt actually read thread ^

[Confidently Wrong]

you're struggling because you are making every excuse to find me scum by starting at the conclusion that i am scum and then working backwards btw

i solved it for u

[Confidently Wrong]

starting to find malcom active frustrating to play with by this point after our last mini normal where they opposed all my correct reads rofl.

[Confidently Wrong]

[quote="In post 1230, Gamma Emerald"][/quote]
so are u gonna play dude

ur slot is like basically conftown, get in this shit, read loftwing's iso as well as csf iso and go from there.

also idk if you saw but i already slipped in game as koba (although i didnt really hide my identity of this alt pregame lol)


i am finding it is pulling teeth to get people to critically analyze d1 content and i know you actually reread shit and look at context so please help my sanity

[Confidently Wrong]

might just PoE malcom if they keep having ridiculous audacious takes.

like top of PoE kinda deal

like i dont see how they look at my recent posts and logically reach a point of "yeah i need to vote this now". it is completely asinine and I know objectively im spewed town by loft based on the d1 treatment of my slot.

my major point that im not just calling them scum is that town can be completely illogical too


maybe ill fuck around and double check malcom's interactions with loft for funsies because im annoyed and when im annoyed i put a spotlight on people that annoy me.

[Confidently Wrong]

Why are people voting Lowell? I don't see them being scum here. They haven't left much to be desired.

Why aren't people voting lowell? I see them being scum here. They leave much to be desired.

[Confidently Wrong]

Also I went into malcom's iso, ctrl-F'd loftwing, and it is my great regret that I find the slot to be actually town here.

[Confidently Wrong]

Why are people voting Lowell? I don't see them being scum here. They haven't left much to be desired.

Why aren't people voting lowell? I see them being scum here. They leave much to be desired.

VOTE: Lowell

[Confidently Wrong]

Lowell + one of Mala/Kenny is currently where I'm exactly at btw.

Now that's how you analyze spew uwuwu

[Confidently Wrong]

Also for reference I'm liking scum in:
{Loftwing/Kenny/Lowell/Malakittens}

Increasing the net would add {BBT, and maybe Eira}

holy shit this is godlike

based af

fancypants is good at the game actually

[Confidently Wrong]

CW have you played with me before? The locktown read felt like it came out of nowhere. You don't have to reveal who you are, just a y/n is fine.

Kenny, why is Fancy scum for pushing an early scumread? Town will make mountains out of molehills early on, and they're liable to be wrong since info is limited. Why is that not descriptive of Fancy's play here?

I guess I described, why I think Fancy's push looks scummy. I never said I am 100 % sure that they are scum. And how could I? To be honest I feel way less sure of a scum!Fancy than I was at the time of my vote.

damn we taking the chainsaw approach when they call out ur whole team huh

[Confidently Wrong]

i kinda lean town on mala so yeah could just literally be kenny/lowell here

[Confidently Wrong]

personally i think the game is solved fmpov

with [Lowell/Eira/Mala] as the most likely team

and then as bonus PoE: [BBT/kennyk]

Every other player I feel a confident enough reason to townread them.

kennyk is also never paired with Lowell

wait why did past me think this i need to dig it might be mala/lowell and im tripping

[Confidently Wrong]

ok honestly i can't tell which between kenny/mala but like .

lowell

thats 100%

like literally open up loftwing ISO and ctrl-F lowell and u will se

open up CSF iso and see what CSF thought of lowell. she even said lowell/loftwing were paired. thats a pretty damning legacy. she also agreed with my towncore list - which *did* include loftwing at the time i believe *but* she separately said loftwing could be scum with lowell *which* means the rest of it is likely pure.

[Confidently Wrong]

I hope that satiates any concerns you have that my read is faulty based on reasoning you think could apply to you. I could go for a townblock including myself, Irrelephant, you(loftwing), CSF, Fredrick, and Fancy Pants

honorary members Shoshin and Malcom

like yes

[Confidently Wrong]

Fredrick A Campbell's Unofficial Votecount

kennyk

(2): FancyPants, BlueBloodedToffee

MalcolmTucker

(2): Shoshin, Irrelephant11

BlueBloodedTofee

(2): Malakittens, Cat Scratch Fever

Lowell

(2): Eiralox, Fredrick A Campbell

Cat Scratch Fever

(1): Lowell

FancyPants

(1): kennyk

Malakittens

(1): Confidently Wrong

Confidently Wrong

(0):

Fredrick A Campbell

(0):

Not Voting

(2): MalcolmTucker, Loftwing
With 13 alive, it takes 7 to eliminate.

Day 1 ends in (expired on 2022-07-04 11:14:00).

Fredrick A Campbell's Second Unofficial Votecount

kennyk

(3): FancyPants, BlueBloodedToffee, Irrelephant11

Lowell

(2): Cat Scratch Fever, Confidently Wrong

Malakittens

(2): Fredrick A Campbell, Loftwing

MalcolmTucker

(1): Shoshin

BlueBloodedTofee

(1): Malakittens

Cat Scratch Fever

(1): Lowell

FancyPants

(1): kennyk

Confidently Wrong

(0):

Fredrick A Campbell

(0):

Not Voting

(2): MalcolmTucker, Eiralox
With 13 alive, it takes 7 to eliminate.

Day 1 ends in (expired on 2022-07-04 11:14:00).

Fredrick A Campbell's Third Unofficial Votecount
Accurate only to post 499

Loftwing (3): FancyPants, Lowell, MalcolmTucker
Malakittens (2): Fredrick A Campbell, Loftwing
Eiralox (2) : Confidently Wrong, , Irrelephant11
Confidently Wrong (1): Eiralox
Lowell (1): Cat Scratch Fever
kennyk (1): BlueBloodedToffee
MalcolmTucker (1): Shoshin
BlueBloodedTofee (1): Malakittens
FancyPants (0): kennyk

Not Voting (0):

Postscript: I'm not that free. Someone please help to bring it up to date

Fredrick A Campbell's Fourth Unofficial Votecount
Continued from Cat Scratch Fever's Votecount

Eiralox (5): Confidently Wrong, Irrelephant11, Fredrick A Campbell, Cat Scratch Fever, Loftwing
Loftwing (3): FancyPants, Lowell, MalcolmTucker
Malakittens (2):
Confidently Wrong (1): Eiralox
kennyk (1): BlueBloodedToffee
MalcolmTucker (1): Shoshin
BlueBloodedTofee (1): Malakittens
FancyPants (1): kennyk
Lowell (0):
Shoshin (0):
Fredrick A Campbell (0):
Cat Scratch Fever (0):
Irrelephant11 (0):

Not Voting (0):

Fredrick A Campbell's Fourth Unofficial Votecount
Continued from Fredrick A Campbell's Fifth Unofficial Votecount

Eiralox (5): Confidently Wrong, Irrelephant11, Fredrick A Campbell, Cat Scratch Fever, Loftwing
Loftwing (4): FancyPants, Lowell, MalcolmTucker, Eiralox
kennyk (1): BlueBloodedToffee
MalcolmTucker (1): Shoshin
BlueBloodedTofee (1): Malakittens
FancyPants (1): kennyk
Confidently Wrong (0):
Malakittens (0):
Lowell (0):
Shoshin (0):
Fredrick A Campbell (0):
Cat Scratch Fever (0):
Irrelephant11 (0):

Not Voting (0):
With 13 in the jury, it takes 7 to find guilty of conspiracy to murder.

Day 1 ends in (expired on 2022-07-04 11:14:00).

Fredrick A Campbell's Sixth Unofficial Votecount
Continued from Fredrick A Campbell's Fifth Unofficial Votecount

Eiralox (4): Confidently Wrong, Irrelephant11, Cat Scratch Fever, Loftwing
Loftwing (4): FancyPants, Lowell, MalcolmTucker, Eiralox
kennyk (1): BlueBloodedToffee
MalcolmTucker (1): Shoshin
BlueBloodedTofee (1): Malakittens
FancyPants (1): kennyk
Malakittens (1): Fredrick A Campbell
Confidently Wrong (0):
Lowell (0):
Shoshin (0):
Fredrick A Campbell (0):
Cat Scratch Fever (0):
Irrelephant11 (0):

Not Voting (0):
With 13 in the jury, it takes 7 to find guilty of conspiracy to murder.

Day 1 ends in (expired on 2022-07-04 11:14:00).

[Confidently Wrong]

So in short: Eira in my eyes got the worse out of this dispute and is downgraded in my reads.

enough to place a vote there?

Yes, I see Eira as the better option for the elim than a policy elim. In fact I thought Eira was still at E-2 and as Fred correctly stated: we don't need to see a fast D1 elim. So I didn't put my vote there yet. But somehow I totally ignored the shift in Fred's vote.

VOTE: Eiralox

this was after people started hopping off eira while loftwing was 2nd place wagon and lowell wagon was building.

[Confidently Wrong]

I'm caught up. Kenny, Cats, malcolm fine for lynch. fancy begrudgingly town, mala town, irrelephant town, toffee town I guess.

WHAT IN THE BUTT

HOW ON EARTH DO I GET A STRONG TOWN READ

NOPENOPENOPE

this reaction actually lowkey unpaired.

im starting to tunnel a kenny/lowell solve now.

[Confidently Wrong]

i think im willing to say its exactly lowell/kenny and i do not want the elimination outside of those 2 this day.

mala is not a townread but is unpaired with a person i believe is pretty much hard scum - *however* i did not rule out kenny/mala but yeah.

Investigatives please check between mala/lowell/kenny

[Confidently Wrong]

Well, I shall take one more action before I sleep. I predict that you will know what it will be.


VOTE: Lowell

this post was made with the belief they were 100% going over very soon btw

[Confidently Wrong]

BBT is in my blind spot fwiw but i feel they are town here. but like if I *had* to add a name for contingency reasons it would be them out of anyone else here.

[Confidently Wrong]

Irrelephant what's WIM?

Still waiting on Malakittens to expand and Gamma to post.

I refuse to expand. I’m very happy with my current weight

i have a mission for you


i want you to go through loftwing iso and tell me what you think the spew off that slot implies - who is town and who is scum off of it?

[Confidently Wrong]

it really do suck to have 100x the WIM of every other player at the table rofl

[Confidently Wrong]

actually i can see lowell/BBT both planning to counterwagon fredrick to save loft.....................

and i fell for it because of my faulty read on eira..


ok the objective order for anyone who actually reread d1 (cough cough) is:

Lowell->Kenny->BBT->Mala(i believe the game ends liklier than not before we reach mala fwiw)

[Confidently Wrong]

Fred;

156 This was the first post that caught my attention. The LAMIST post, give three town reads. Extremely easy for scum to do given the extra information they have - three scum reads would be better to create actual content, no?

214 The random push on the LHF. I get this to an extent, it's early game so push the low posters for content. 223, 334 335 though continues this push further, now it becomes a 'genuine push' as opposed to a low content push and is where I start to dislike it. This is the first time he sheeps CW.

348 His fascination with Eira not voting anyone. This continues for quite some time and yet he doesn't apply this to other players - like Malcolm.

545 He votes Eira. Sheeping CW (again) and Irrelephant. Now, as scum, this is a great way to go by unnoticed right? Just do what the loudest, widest town read players do and you get no hassle. He very much goes with the flow of the thread and I'm not sure I've seen any originality from him at all?

554 OK, some explanation for the Eira vote. Fascination with the no voting (again) and given it seems so important to him, why has he not applied the same thinking to Malcolm? I mean, the first paragraph is a narrative of what happened and doesn't actually indicate why he thinks Eira is scum. The whole post has a lot of words but doesn't actually say why what Eira has done is scummy.

Eira wagon; Eiralox (5): Confidently Wrong, Irrelephant11, Fredrick A Campbell, Cat Scratch Fever, Loftwing

Is that all town? Seems unlikely.

572 LAMIST, don't anybody dare hammer my scumread!

He is first to jump off the Eira wagon though, which gives me some pause. It is, though, after Irrelephant mentions he has lost his Shoshin and Mala reads. 647 pre-emptively sheeping by voting Mala.

766 Random vote on Lowell. Literally, aside from talking about low content posters, this has come from nowhere. Or has it? In 753 Irrelephant says that Mala is town...and just like that, Fred backs off Mala. Not only does he back off Mala, he again chooses to go for the LHF. We're now 31 pages into the game by the way.

768 A horrific explanation for the shift in votes.

838 Why is he asking why Loft is town? Angling to join the wagon? He has shown no previous interest in this player.

842 Declares intent to hammer Loft? WHAT? Where did this come from? After some talk about Fred possibly being scum he speeds up his 'timer' for hammering Loft.

Can anyone guess who recently joined the Loft push before Fred decided it was good for him, too? You get two guesses.

Spoiler: Who is it?

It's Irrelephant (again!)

892 Justification for the Loft vote. It's simply appalling that this late into the game, all of Fred's reads amount to 'but they're not doing anything.' He has sheeped either CW or Irrelephant the entire game.

Thank you for taking the time to read my post.

Now vote Fred.

Fine. I’ll be white-knighting scumBBTs errand boy if it gets us a vote.

vote Fred

I guess this ship has sailed, but man does that ever seem like a fake-claim. Never heard of a neighborizer—why would it exist in a mini.

actually i take it back im stupid

got the context and BBT was more likely taken advantage of by a scum lowell

[Confidently Wrong]

if CSF/Lowell was Town/Town there is no way scum don't leave that pairing alive considering how it seemed like Lowell was tunneling CSF so hard.

It is similarly to why both Eira and I are alive as we were tunneling eachother very hard. If either of us were scum it was likely one would die.

Sorry my thoughts are so scattered and fragmeneted but the TL;DR is that a lot of my conclusions stem from CSF legacy (night kill analysis essentially) and also Loftwing spew. So if you want to see where I'm coming from you just need to open up Loftwing ISO, CTRL-F Lowell and Kenny, open up CSF iso, look at her legacy regarding loftwing at the end, and then look at kenny/loftwing/lowell mutual interactions. I believe that anyone who actually does this work should potentially reach a similar conclusion here.

[Confidently Wrong]

It also means that scum were at danger of elimination all of day 1 pretty much, between Kenny at the start, Lowell in the middle, Loftwing near the end, and then lowell again at the end after loftwing claimed.

[Confidently Wrong]

also lowell not explaining shit is not town indicative - it is indicative of him unable to do so because they arent town. I opened up some towngames from 2017 and he is perfectly capable of it if he wants to.

lowell closing up is trying to prevent himself from spewing anything that will prove he is scum and he wants to maintain this gamestate where he thinks he looks good off day 1. it is easier to not get scrutiny if theres nothing really to scrutinize - lowell has been asked to explain things several times this game and his response was to wave it away and pretend like he is too high and mighty to do so. his reads are completely illlogical and chosen at seemingly random. look at his progression this day phase alone. He tries to push shoshin and I both simultaneously. 2 slots if you even look at day 1 and how shoshin talked to me you will see that is blatantly not a pairing. I was one of shoshin's more vocal pushes so heavily doubtful lowell missed this if he is feeling so confident. I just can't see a world where Lowell is not scum here and he is trying to push the agenda that scum dont bus partners when its scum/scum wagons rofl. (I literally did so myself so hilarious he is trying to say this)

I do not believe his kenny vote will stick, and if it does then lol good luck having "all my friends are dead" syndrome when you have no scumbuddies to bus.


That being said, Lowell, if you are somehow town here - it has to be exactly BBT. So if you want to be found town here - you need to oblige people on their attempts to read your intentions. Acting a toddler and refusing to do so is unproductive and only reflects poorly on you and won't help.

[Confidently Wrong]

I think I’m just gonna sheep CW until I stop feeling drained for some incomprehensible reason (I actually kinda have a guess why, it’s probably burn-out from schoolwork)

. you're not helping my case on why u are town but also i correctly predicted you would townread me so n i c e

[Confidently Wrong]

Also I think I'm allowed to bring this up:
The replace shenanigans make this slot more scummy in my opinion, especially since Irrelephant said Shosh likes playing town.

Shosh uh did not have a choice in the matter there.

[Confidently Wrong]

if it's gamma, it's not gamma/mala? too easy, but meh. gamma/cw makes more sense 2 me. buuuuut i mean can still be anyone else, ive felt town on shoshin d1 but N1 after hammer i was considering shosh/cw.... look at early stuff, and who cw names and does not name scum. but i'm not going to vote anywhere just yet, Fancy has cast the glove and now the sorting begins.

i'm green on Fancy after Fred vote, i have no reason not to fully trust this claim.

this game is a lesson in that just because someone defends another player it doesnt make them scum for it (:

[Confidently Wrong]

oh hey eira opened up an ISO and realized that things are not just level 0 "X defended Y so they scum"

[Confidently Wrong]

I love blatantly defending scum and their reaction is to spew me town

[Confidently Wrong]

I'm still trying to inhale copium that gamma is going to end up being a PR that visited dead but their entrance begs otherwise lol

[Confidently Wrong]

I'm just like wondering why the fuck the CSF kill makes sense now if we are in a world where Shosh is scum ?

like Lowell came into this day hardpushing gamma ???

is watcher a thing in normals?


actually what if scum have a role watcher ROFL

[Confidently Wrong]

and lowell was TMIing that gamma slot would be likely dead today because they saw a tracker visited gamma

that'd be wild.

But alas its probably just mala



just .... in the mala/gamma world i have 0 idea why you kill CSF there.

[Confidently Wrong]

fancy this is the part where you tell me its a prank and you actually tracked lowell rofl

because this name was supposed to be a joke damnit LMFAO

ah well i tend to have my worst town games at tables where im unfamiliar with most players.

[Confidently Wrong]

oh i wasnt asking lol

but now that i think of it, gamma/lowell makes perfect sense with how lowell was pushing me as a partner with shoshin.

and why scum were extremely intent on saving lowell by bussing loft
why gamma was the one to lead the kill

etc.

[Confidently Wrong]

lowell I really await your attempts to pair me with shoshin.
it will be funny because I vow to tunnel your slot until one of us are dead.

good job on the TMI tho.

[Confidently Wrong]

VOTE: confidently wrong with a ten foot pole.

lowell i'm ok with. you don't xpand tho. fact that u have mala on scum list trips me. mala straight null, ill vote there cos inactive but i don't see how u can form any reads. there's nothing. so having mala in a team with lowell/eira..... i mean CF maybe ur trolling here but D1 if I name three ppl scum i do so with reasons. meh.


me, well, bring your case. tell me why and how eira is scummy.

CW, why do you read me as town?

VOTE: Confidently Wrong

Why is CW town, Cat?

Anyway so who we killing here. Anyone but me.

If you vote CW, I'll do my best to protect you.

How good is CW, Irrel?

definitely my scumbud btw

[Confidently Wrong]

Here's something fun, I'm here and going to soft an even night or novice investigative right now. I am going to be on you Lowell. You wonder why I talked about investigatives so much this game and was trying to pretend like i was setup speccing which one? Well now you see.

Do what you will with that info. I know you won't kill me regardless because a tracker exists and you dont know their gate and you think you can mislim me.

I play PR as if I'm a VT and need to defend myself on the basis of dayplay. Because it is shitty play to crutch a roleclaim - in all cases. I knew the only way I died was if I ended up exactly correct on the scumteam.

[Confidently Wrong]

"are you going to help me get to the safety of the nightphase faster where I can hide in scum chat safetly?"

[Confidently Wrong]

why are you in a rush? you got somewhere to be? scared to discuss why you think im paired with shoshin?

whats the matter fella?

[Confidently Wrong]

also you probably hammered gamma anyways. its clear you want to just rush the day and kill fancy in safety. you have 0 interest in a conversation that involves critical analysis.

[Confidently Wrong]

Your sarcasm is doing an amazing job proving my points wrong. Keep it up.

[Confidently Wrong]

i dont think im being uncharitable, because lowell refuses to elaborate on anything intentionally these are the conclusions I have reached

[Confidently Wrong]

Sure but without cooperating what im left with is a slot who has TMId serveral other slots, has played in a way that is bussy, and has made several outlandish takes as well as tonally being scummy - particualrly this dayphase, he seems fake excited and i can feel a dejection beneath the surface. Particularly the cats post was Not Good and i feel that they killed the slot partially to be able to say that.

I firmly believe that lowell is a slot that even if you want to not find that conclusive - should be enough to resolve before the game ends.

[Confidently Wrong]

FoSing someone for hurting your ego is poor play

[Confidently Wrong]

i'm still like not entirely sure shoshin slot was even scum and i wanted gamma to say something and rushing here was really bad :/

[Confidently Wrong]

oh well at least I am sure there is 1 minimum in shoshin/lowell regardless of what gamma flips

[Confidently Wrong]

Go ahead, I'm too hungover to think.

My post where I claimed has all my thoughts.

i hope this flips town so you see that maybe the person you dont have a hard guilty on still deserves a chance to speak up.

[Confidently Wrong]

The thing is I believe gamma when they say they simply cannot get on because it is not like them to just not post regardless and it is likely genuine.

We can still plan to eliminate the slot just .. wait?

[Confidently Wrong]

But massclaim seems bad here unless vig is inside the limpool

The vig is not in the limpool

[Confidently Wrong]

I mean for me it's still between Kenny/CW/BBT but the thread deserves a reread now that I know I'm alive, which I don't have time for at the moment.

That sounds wrong

[Confidently Wrong]

Last scum is definitely a rolecop and holstered kill to scout

[Confidently Wrong]

Also im extemely spewed town off both scum get real if im in your POE just for being wrong

[Confidently Wrong]

Lets get one thing straight.

Im not


But also - the PoE objectively should be exactly only Kenny and Lowell here. No one else.

[Confidently Wrong]

Theres also possibility of a protective but i heavily doubt a protective and a tracker without lazy modifier makes it past review

[Confidently Wrong]

That being said, i bluffed the gunsmith soft to draw a kill. I probably drew a rolecop night 1.

[Confidently Wrong]

That being said it would be fitting if lowell was town and kenny was scum here just for the sheer fact my name was a prophecy so im rooting for kenny scum but still believe its lowell last based on the TMI reads and scummy positioning hes taken this game. Thats a slot that looks to me to have played in an informed way around whats flipped.

[Confidently Wrong]

Last scum is definitely a rolecop and holstered kill to scout

Incorrect. Mafia can multitask, it's in the first post under set-up.

I assumed they couldnt but i also assumed they were dodging you regardless doing this.

[Confidently Wrong]

If the game isnt a lock here, the normal review group was wilding and gave us a follow the cop scenario(plausible still so kek), or mafia intentionally no killed for strategic reasons, thus making me feel kenny is less likely in that scenario due to lower experience

[Confidently Wrong]

Lol i have the track record of being targeted to back up that confidence. Usually its with a kill though.

[Confidently Wrong]

The way scum treated me spews me as a townie. The way shoshin pushed me in particular

Also with the vig, the backup flipped compulsive so it can be infinite shot and compulsive.

[Confidently Wrong]

Bussing never happens amirite

[Confidently Wrong]

If the game isnt a lock here, the normal review group was wilding and gave us a follow the cop scenario(plausible still so kek), or mafia intentionally no killed for strategic reasons, thus making me feel kenny is less likely in that scenario due to lower experience

Based on my role, and Fred's role I think all power roles are limited shot, so it's possible if there is a protective it might be 1 shot or limited in some way.
I also think it's possible that scum/tracker/vig all targetted Mala, or based on the above logic maybe the vig is also 1 shot and is only forced to kill night 1, IDK.

This post sounds a bit salty though...
I'm off to a pub quizz but expect a deeper dive from me tomorrow.

I think you made up a narrative that im salty in your head and applied it to the post bc its the least salty thing ive posted and i purely explained it because it shows a new perspective on kenny slot

[Confidently Wrong]

Here's something fun, I'm here and going to soft an even night or novice investigative right now. I am going to be on you Lowell. You wonder why I talked about investigatives so much this game and was trying to pretend like i was setup speccing which one? Well now you see.

Do what you will with that info. I know you won't kill me regardless because a tracker exists and you dont know their gate and you think you can mislim me.

I play PR as if I'm a VT and need to defend myself on the basis of dayplay. Because it is shitty play to crutch a roleclaim - in all cases. I knew the only way I died was if I ended up exactly correct on the scumteam.

That being said, i bluffed the gunsmith soft to draw a kill. I probably drew a rolecop night 1.

Lowell has voted for both Loftwing and Gamma at this point, cw has not. If cw is town... well this continued lowell tunnel still makes me open to voting either cw or kenny, as earlier stated. I want to hear from kenny, if theres no response from kenny in 48 hrs i'll vote kenny just cos, depending.

I get that you as the vig are probably going to shoot me tonight but also consider killing lowell afterwards.

[Confidently Wrong]

VOTE: Loftwing

I am not currently solving the game, instead riding the waves and seeing where it takes me.

Behold, a scum.

Loftwing wasnt a planned bus btw

[Confidently Wrong]

(Sarcasm)

[Confidently Wrong]

What're your reads, Lowell?

What're your reads, Loft?

when u dont know how to naturally interact with ur scumbuddy

[Confidently Wrong]

Town to scum:

Eira
Fancy
Kenny
Malcolm
Cat
CW
Irrel
BBT
Fred
Mala
Lowell
Loftwing

Had lowell stated as a bottom read - when loftwing wagon dissolves, a lowell one popped out. Shoshin voted fred instead

[Confidently Wrong]

How to read spew 101 btw

[Confidently Wrong]

I'm just gonna sheep Irrel today.

If I'm in limlo with Irrel, I'd vote him immediately without second thought.

Irrelephant11 spewed town here for instance

[Confidently Wrong]

Loft and shoshin were scum theatering around the kenny slot. I really think that slot is spewed town that way fwiw.

Did anyone but myself open up any scum isos post flip?

[Confidently Wrong]

why is lowell town other than just voting 2 flipped scum? Elaborate.

[Confidently Wrong]

Why am I not spewed scum to you - explain how loftwing and shoshin interactions with me fit into a scum agenda. Explain why gamma hopped in and immediately decided to pocket me instead of doing anything else.

[Confidently Wrong]

peta is screaming as another player cites "reasons" for their read as theyre protecting last scum

[Confidently Wrong]

on god just fucking take me out of this game and confirm me town
My legacy is lowell scum
I cant be fucked to argue with a bunch of stubborn people who cant think further than surface level why people bus in games and why showing work is important. Lowell fucking bleeds tmi and people ignore it because "hurr durr they were right on scum" mf look at the fucking gamestate and how convenient it is to lowell

Fucking hell.

[Confidently Wrong]

Town to scum:

Eira
Fancy
Kenny
Malcolm
Cat
CW
Irrel
BBT
Fred
Mala
Lowell
Loftwing

Had lowell stated as a bottom read - when loftwing wagon dissolves, a lowell one popped out. Shoshin voted fred instead

Distancing happened but literally putting your two teammates as your two main scumreads just doesn't strike me as a wise approach at all. Even one works - you don't want to implicate both. Shoshin could've just believed Fred was a better possible elimination, no? Considering that's what happened.

You will learn one day

[Confidently Wrong]

You read 1 half of what i said and the rest went out the other ear

[Confidently Wrong]

You dont care why lowell wasnt the counterwagon after loftwing wagon dissolved at all and it shows. Lowell town because reasons!!!! No tmi here no sireee

Just has to be the easily findable town CW who is definitely not spewed by scum.

[Confidently Wrong]

Sorry i forgot townies dont try to get read as town ever. They judt accept the shitty arguments and lie down.. thats the real townie way right malcom

[Confidently Wrong]

After all that is kinda what you did when u got shitpushed as a pr in your last game so not surprising you think fighting back against an FOS is scummy bc u wont do that as town lol

[Confidently Wrong]

You dont care why lowell wasnt the counterwagon after loftwing wagon dissolved at all and it shows. Lowell town because reasons!!!! No tmi here no sireee

Just has to be the easily findable town CW who is definitely not spewed by scum.

I've said I would consider Kenny as well. I literally said above I am open to alternative ideas and will not simply tunnel you. Go and read my post.

No. You are not open to lowell. That is who i want. I have found reasons for kenny town . I have found reasons for fancy town. I have found reasons for you town. I have found reasons for BBT town. I have found reasons for Irrelephant11 town. I have reasons for eira town.

Bbt is the *only* person who plausibly could be fooling me here.

My only reason for lowell town is that he voted right on mafia. Thats it.
We ignore the really absurd pushes he tried to make against myself, mala, and CSF(WHO WAS TOWNREADING ME BTW)

[Confidently Wrong]

Take out the fact that they voted for mafia - what is townie about lowell?
What about the way mafia interacted around lowell is towny? (No probability arguments btw i dont need that shit)
What about the way lowell reached their conclusions was townie?

I am of the belief that the positioning was *too good* and at key moments.

[Confidently Wrong]

IT IS NOT GOOD TO HAVE AS YOUR SOLE REASON FOR FUCKS SAKE

[Confidently Wrong]

Now i see how ive been able to win off busses so easily in the past rofl

[Confidently Wrong]

fancy i resent you for not tracking either lowell or myself

[Confidently Wrong]

Even kenny

[Confidently Wrong]

See i would self vote here but i know that no one will listen to me abojt lowell so i want to thunderdome lowell here and now and no one contribute arguments for lowell. Let him make his case. I will SHOW YOU he is scum.

[Confidently Wrong]

That was when it was lowell vs loft

[Confidently Wrong]

You see thing but you do not look at what thing is a part of (context)

[Confidently Wrong]

I have no urgency to get lowell now or later as scum
In fact id want it after vig is dead

[Confidently Wrong]

Whether town or scum, kenny should get a chance to post before dying either by vote or vig shot. Especially in the scenario where there's a deepwolf

As a result of cw pushing me to re-open all the ISOs I am finding him moving toward the top of my list of suspects. My ego wants a kenny flip (called it from d1!) but I'll go with majority

It should do the opposite if youre looking at process over results but ok

[Confidently Wrong]

I thought loftwing had a complex thought process that i associate typically with town.. im actually lowkey impressed at the lines loftwing said in light of a red flip.

Shoshin i believed to be too bold and out of scum meta to be scum. Also the tunnel they had on me felt town motivated.

[Confidently Wrong]

Lowell as town did a good job. I think Lowell makes for a terrible endgame-scum if double bus was the plan

I dont think they wanted to bus and were just positioning but please tell me more about how its so impossible that lowell is playing from an informed pov

Everytime lowell was pushing scum - they had a townie as well they were pushing.
Day 1 it was csf. Day 2 it was mala and myself. With no one else left, lowell will show their colors soon enough.

[Confidently Wrong]

543 got me like oof.

Csf liked that post. Youre thinking of my thought process as "this person is confirmed scum" rather than "is it reasonable for this person to have this thought process and believe this here?"
Because the answer then is yes. I was *really* preflipping lowell by end of day 1 with reinforcing my reads.
The thing is also i partially reached the read with looking for townreads for the most part

[Confidently Wrong]

Also someone remind me to go in depth on the kenny spew i believe is present primarily with how scum treated kenny.

The most imporant thing to do now is narrow down choices while not discounting possibilities

[Confidently Wrong]

Csf liked that post.

how is this relevant?

It's relevant because mafia saw csf as a threat

[Confidently Wrong]

Although gamma could have been why that kill was done

[Confidently Wrong]

Think its crazy how badly someone can get spewed town and still get heat bc wrong at mafia

[Confidently Wrong]

i read lowell as well positioned not as bussing because both kills were out of his hands.

[Confidently Wrong]

I really think a lot of context is being ignored in lieu of easy simple reads

[Confidently Wrong]

So here is my read list in order of the players list:
BlueBloodedToffee: null at the moment (see my last post)

Lowell: a hard slot for me to read. There is just a push on cats and a multiple post read list. I don't see much from Lowell to get town going. No questions to anyone at all. Could be town not knowing how to get a grip on the game or scum trying to dodge away. The latter pings me a bit more, so: scumlean

Loftwing: Taking one of my posts as the reason for a vote on me and later using the same post as a reason to unvoting and even defending me really feels strange. scumleann

Confidently Wrong: Really interesting idea for an account. With so many contradicting posts it would be quite easy to openly slip without anyone noticing or at least being able to easily deny it. No one can know for sure which post is real and which is a fake post to stick to the role. My gut feeling tells me that this slot is probably more town than scum, so townlean.

MalcolmTucker: Allthough I don't do agree with all of his posts, they seem to be very thoughtful. He tries to find scum in a very unagitated way. townlean

Shoshin: The "Fancy seems town" and "Kenny is town" feels weird and doesn't really add up to me. scumlean

Fredrick A Campbell: I have nothing bad to say about this slot. A few solid posts. townlean

Cat Scratch Fever: After a slow start Cat looks like she is in scum hunting mode. town

Malakittens: I don't see any game relevant posts at all (apart maybe from the early vote). So far this is null, but I would be willing to do a policy elim here.

FancyPants: At the moment I voted Fancy I really felt they were scum (I won't repeat myself here). I think I now know, why they thought what they thought. I really liked the "does experienced scum teach newbie scum in daytalk" question. This felt like they thought I was suddenly doing better but needed an explanation why (I hope everyone gets what I want to say there. I couldn't describe it any better) and they only came up with the "external help"-solution. scumlean

Irrelephant11: His effort feels townie. The only thing that pings my scum radar is the fact that he read shoshin as twon early on. This could be a pocketing try. townlean

Eiralox:I don't know why, but this slot feels hard to read, too. Allthough I like the game irrelevant fact, that they seem to know rogue games and seem to llike Monty Python, there's not too much that I do get out of this player even after an ISO. null

if we want to talk about scum bussing, I think kenny here in retrospect had a pretty towny way of treating the 2 flipped scum slots that went beyond just "being right", it was something subtle enough that it is independent of the 2.

[Confidently Wrong]

And now to the big things.

I guess I will start with CW (or his alt DkKoba). I had two games with him so far. In one he was scum and I on the receiving end of his scum push. It was hell. The other I was scum and had a fun time watching the battle that evolved after I had to be replaced.

Both times CW was trying to partly take over the thread and what we have seen here is far from the "bullying big ball raccoon" in those two games. But at least I can relate to Eira being annoyed or frustrated by CW (as far as his playstyle is concerned).

Allthough they were sometimes being served a bit rude (not quite the word I want here, but can't think of a better one right now, even in my native language) CWs arguments against Eira had a point as they were directed at things that were off.

The often cited "Eira went off after CWs vote and pushed CW for the mala/lowell/Eira thing" is the most prominent of them. I never read CWs post as a "those three are for sure connected scum" list. It is more like a "those three are the most scummiest for me right now". It would be very dubious if anyone had a list with three players on them who are all connected scum on day one in any normal game.

Eiras unwillingness to discuss with CW is something I can fully understand. I was very short of doing the same thing myself in said game, but never voiced it. But later refusing to talk to others as well felt way off, but could be due to his bad temper from his discussion with CW as it has softened quite a bit (thanks to Fred).

Allthough I still stand by my word, that I would be willing to do a policy elim on Mala because of her inactivity, I don't think Eiras "why kill me, an active player" is a feasible argument. And maybe I have to specify the policy elim: I am willing to do a Mala policy elim only if there is is no other, reasonable elim that is going to find a majority.

So in short: Eira in my eyes got the worse out of this dispute and is downgraded in my reads.

this if anything is the most egregious thing that i remember from kenny in terms of the fact that to me this can be egging on a 1v1 and trying to avoid my end of it.

[Confidently Wrong]

So Fred intends to hammer Loftwing at a certain time and promises to hunt down anyone who does hammer before another time. I totally see and agree with the intention behind that.

Then Eira unvotes to not get Loftwing hammered early. A statement I can relate to in general. But with Fred's post I ask myself if it really was necessary in this case.

If I were scum and still off the wagon, I wouldn't hammer before Fred's deadline. No need to get into a bad light there. Someone else would do the dirty work for you.

And as town it isn't good to hammer either. Even if I were quite sure that Loftwing is scum, I would let the day go on to maybe get some useful Infos from his posts.

So there really is no need to unvotes. The only reasons I can think of are either you have doubts about his guilt (which you don't) or both are scum and Eira tries to make an elim less likely.

So in my eyes this feels a bit like a last ditch at saving a fellow scum.

[Confidently Wrong]

anyways onto the real reason why kenny is spewed town. that was just an appetizer.

i fully intend to stop any and all mislims possible here.

[Confidently Wrong]

I would say the most compelling reason lowell being town lies around the vote shifts when loftwing unvoted kenny

when the wagon got hot.

[Confidently Wrong]

now im distracted and want to investigate this vote shift further actually ..

[Confidently Wrong]

A classic tactic for less experienced mafia is to try to mimic towniness by trying to loudly proclaim how unsure they are of people's alignments to LAMIST their way into seeming uninformed

Do you think this does not equally apply to me? If not, why not?

lmao this fucker was taunting me


also i found nothing of note in the vote shifts, there were a lot of wagons. could have just hopped off because nothing was going on and that was taking off easily.

[Confidently Wrong]

ok mafia is a hard game

i went from

"huh maybe lowell town.. kenny scum?" to "nah kenny def town" to "bbt maybe scum? and then "bbt spewed town af" in the course of less than 2 minutes lmao

[Confidently Wrong]

all from rereading loft iso

[Confidently Wrong]

people i am confident are spewed town or buried scum in a way that is never scum/scum:

BBT/Myself/Irrelephant/Eiralox/Fancy/Malcom
'
People that are nearly spewed town but i see *things*: Kenny,

remaining: lowell

so you see I keep arriving at the same conclusion regardless of what I do lmao

that is from a blank slate strictly reading loftwing/shoshin purely

[Confidently Wrong]

if there are any scum in bbt/irrelephant/eira/fancy/malcom, they distanced extremely well and kudos to them.

[Confidently Wrong]

VOTE: Fancy Pants

(you're going to) Die, Scum! (But thankfully I have an escape from this planet with my rocket ship!)

I thought this was a soft that they were a Commuter. So. Yeah.

I see no town reasons for hiding the rest of the claim now. Also, unless the other ability is very specific, my town read on Loft is not as strong.

Which is why I posted this

bonus round BBT having organic reasons and interactions around loftwing

[Confidently Wrong]

like seriously the only thing that really shows lowell as town here is literally his positioning around the 2 flipped scum... something very easy to do if you already know the answers here.

something everyone here has decided is worth focusing on to the exclusion to all else.

[Confidently Wrong]

but also consider how GOATed kenny's reads list is if it is lowell in 388

[Confidently Wrong]

Ugh toffee u gonna vote here?

What I said bout kenny d1 and d2 still stands. Theyre recalcitrance to vote loft. The fact that they parked their vote on eira d1 and didnt vote d2. Many other things. If cw is scum what are the chances that they rolecopped lowell? Other cw reads have changed but lowell has remained the one constant. Cw townread loft, only voice against gamma elim, votes lowell rather than gamma. Now towreads kenny after being onboard that wagon D2.

Sort these slots. Im where I was last time.

to me its like "i was wrong on these 2 scum slots but this 3rd one I was right all along", which *does* happen in games where someone might have the other part of a solve. I just didnt have the courage to help it flip day 1.

[Confidently Wrong]

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=89363

had a game finish where i was uhh similarly pushing some wrong reads confidently, my alt in that one is scp 682. notably the push on menalque there as well as the defense of Flavor leaf should stand out as parallels

[Confidently Wrong]

ok lets see if this works bc im tired of no votecounts:

Spoiler: Votecount Settings[/spoiler

Living Players

kennyk
BlueBloodedToffee
Lowell
Confidently Wrong
MalcolmTucker
FancyPants
Irrelephant11
Eiralox

Links

Day 3: Post #1345

[Confidently Wrong]

fixed lol

Spoiler: Votecount Settings

Living Players

kennyk
BlueBloodedToffee
Lowell
Confidently Wrong
MalcolmTucker
FancyPants
Irrelephant11
Eiralox

Links

Day 3: Post #1345

[Confidently Wrong]

fack it doesnt work

kitty can you add that to the OP at the bottom tho lol so i can get my own votecounts


or some1 lend me their program

[Confidently Wrong]

VOTE: kenny. It's him or CW and I'm tired of arguing with CW.

You "arguing" with me lasts a total of a single post with actual points. But please exaggerate and pretend like you have actually tried to engage me on any level.

[Confidently Wrong]

@CW you got me. Scum plan was a Lowell double-bus. *chef's kiss* Stop tunneling bro.

See i would self vote here but i know that no one will listen to me abojt lowell so i want to thunderdome lowell here and now and no one contribute arguments for lowell. Let him make his case. I will SHOW YOU he is scum.

Honestly dude I'm not "making a case" for me being town, that's not how it works. And I've never been more right about a mafia game than this one. Besides, my "case" is that I was right about loftwing and pushed him even after others (you) were saying "oh nothing to see here, great claim!", then joined the push on gamma while others (you, again) were like "weeeelllll, let's give him more time I'm not so sure what about LOWELL???" And I've already heard your awesome response of "WIFOM DOUBLEBUS THATS WHAT YOU WANT US TO THINK OMG" enough that I don't care to hear it again.

sorry - 2 posts with points.

everything else is sarcasm

[Confidently Wrong]

you are more tired of being held accountable for your thought process and being forced to present arguments that involve critical thinking, neither of which you have done.

[Confidently Wrong]

congrats those are posts i made? Lol
If you want me to explain any I'm happy to, just point me to which ones i should explain.

[Confidently Wrong]

If you mean to say i went around shoshin and loftwing thats because i egregiously townread them and played around them being town. Hard to reach the right conclusion when 2/3 of it is already incorrect

[Confidently Wrong]

im actually really towny ur just seeing red

[Confidently Wrong]

Literally i am putting out the most analysis and thought flow
But im scummy bc wrong

[Confidently Wrong]

You can vote me out but do not fucking say it was bc i was "scummy". I put in an insane amount of effort to show that im town. The L on me flipping town is on any townies voting me

[Confidently Wrong]

I took the L for Fredrick. Take yours too

[Confidently Wrong]

Damn now do lowell with that same mindset dude

[Confidently Wrong]

You're so close it hurts

[Confidently Wrong]

Youre working from the conclusion im scum backwards btw and thats why you are wrong and thats what you should take away from this game

[Confidently Wrong]

I would never tell shoshin and loftwing to put negative attention on me like they did. Your scenario fits but only if you ignore massive amounts of context and also refuse to consider lowell scum

[Confidently Wrong]

Kenny is spewed town and the way kenny treated loft and shoshin is town as well

Youre literally crippling yourself so hard by refusing to believe were both town

[Confidently Wrong]

Unvote. Stop playing pro scum
For all we know kenny is a roleblocker with the game winning block..

[Confidently Wrong]

DONT FUCKING HAMMER THATS FUCKING THROWING

[Confidently Wrong]

Is there really a harm in waiting.
Like jesus.
At least with vig shot we have 4 town kills so if bbt is scum openscumming we still have a lock lmao

[Confidently Wrong]

You know if thats the case then modding standards should be faised to cover being actively invested enough so something like that cant happen bc now that you present that theory its possible. Regardless i think that we have enough kills to go through [myself, kenny, lowell, bbt] which is winning most of the time. I still am fairly sure its still town kenny and scum lowell but ill relook at kenny to make sure bc thats a valid point