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bob3141 Jack of All Trades
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Will do some catch up latter today but without reading any of the thread or seeing the player base. First numbers to come to mind are 7 and 2. Will they turn out to be scum post game lol-
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bob3141 Jack of All Trades
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quick look at vote counts and i find dragons/kilck slot quite interesting. Only unkown slot on the wagon when roden first got to 4 (i dont count rodens 5th vote). Will look to see how that developed goign forward-
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bob3141 Jack of All Trades
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elements is unconfirmed in first 4 too so taht another to look at. But is also hit town indicator for me, even if it is weak one that gets trumped by iso-
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bob3141 Jack of All Trades
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A very townie postIn post 1810, Morning Tweet wrote: Re: Why dont both alignments want to move game forward
Moving the game forward is always good for town but not necessarily helpful for scum
For example I usually stop making reads or anything that could be associative as scum when I know im flipping soon. There's no reason to give anyone anything as scum (other than to try and be towny and survive obviously)
town moving game forward means we're interacting and learning new things abt how each slot interacts which helps uninformeds
(as scum) you could keep a scumread on someone you know you'd townread normally by just avoiding interaction. moving game forward means more options locked off. Interacting could limit your choices and cause more people to be clearly readable
So that's why I think being inactive is a bit scummy by itself, being active is protown
Obviously scum has to play and copy the rest of us and they can't just all lurk.. of course... but being active helps town a lot more than it benefits scum in my opinion
Scums moving the game forward is to get others approval of their slot, towns motivation to play is to win.. you could say scum getting approval is winning for them but I would say it's just having the town die before scum, you don't have to lead the lims and you don't need all of the scum to be active and townread.
That being said town also lurks or leaves I wouldn't call it a strong indicator I just think it's less often overall for town to not post
...
Ele doesn't seem like scum to me
Admittedly Dragons isn't that sus although I think his HEM read could be fake
The main thing everyone says is HEM played D2 different, why was that advantageous to him as scum so much so that it's more likely than the alternative
I think it's what I expected either way it doesn't make sense to want to drive as strongly as HEM did D1 either way. Maybe voting Greeting while toning down his aggression was a useful coincidence for scum!HEM
But it's not different from what town HEM would've done, is it? Question for anyone-
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bob3141 Jack of All Trades
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Interesting both N1 and N2 nk were both on players on roden wagon-
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bob3141 Jack of All Trades
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For now VOTE: Dragon-
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bob3141 Jack of All Trades
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In post 1698, geraintm wrote:yeah, need more than that from you.
So far from you,
i see you were on the Day 1 wagon which eliminated a townie.
You were on the Furtive wagon day 2 at the start, but you did a really, really weird vote on EmperorFlippyNips when their wagon was getting half serious
and ended up on camelCasedSnivy who also was the end elimination and was also townie.
For those paying attention, the following were on both end wagons
Klick/Save The Dragons
Elements
CuriousKarmaDog
This feels weird to me.
Germin can you explain what you mean by this post. As at this point snivy had already flipped scum.
And by the looks of it the day one roden wagon could easily have been town motivated as greetings showed no real interest in roden. Which tends to come from scum who are convident that the player will flip. This often happens when teh scum presence on wagon is rather light and its beign driven by vocal town players-
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bob3141 Jack of All Trades
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It implys scum are not worried about narrowing down a potential suspect list on the roden wagon. Hence, implys the wagon was town motivated even if it turned out to be incorrect.In post 1826, curiouskarmadog wrote:
why is that interesting?In post 1822, bob3141 wrote: Interesting both N1 and N2 nk were both on players on roden wagon-
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bob3141 Jack of All Trades
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plus as it looks like greetings indifference to the roden wagon when it reached e-1. Implys prob only one scum there.-
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bob3141 Jack of All Trades
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Just because a wagon is motivated by town doesnt mean there are no scum on it. scum show up in wagoni analysis as they skew the deck. Thus lone scum on wagon will not prodcue a skewing effect but 2 does and 3 even more so.
First thing you alwasy have to do is work out the wagon dynamics and then test that hypothesis. And thats not simplistic view of x was town so scum must be there. Its the ebs and flows. What was the velocity how did flipped players that are town and scum interact with it.-
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bob3141 Jack of All Trades
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When wagon become town motivated scum tend to vanity vote. Placing themselves on wagon that arnt the one they expect to go though, normally with the intention of setting that player up as the next misexecution.
That woudl imply that that post 1216 was intended for that reason so that would balance leave you as town. The fact he changed from furtive is also interesting.
Situation like that is not when players tend to bus.
Hence, if scum are on the roden wagon then they were either caught up in moment ot piggy backing or plain elsewhere. Based on teh fact greeting was goign for positioning-
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bob3141 Jack of All Trades
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First impression of this thread is that greetings interaction feel s/s. Although have not had chance to look at furt iso-
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bob3141 Jack of All Trades
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Can you summarize for me as i do have 74 pages to catch up onIn post 1838, geraintm wrote:
Did you not see all the following posts where we all agreed this post never happenedIn post 1824, bob3141 wrote:In post 1698, geraintm wrote:yeah, need more than that from you.
So far from you,
i see you were on the Day 1 wagon which eliminated a townie.
You were on the Furtive wagon day 2 at the start, but you did a really, really weird vote on EmperorFlippyNips when their wagon was getting half serious
and ended up on camelCasedSnivy who also was the end elimination and was also townie.
For those paying attention, the following were on both end wagons
Klick/Save The Dragons
Elements
CuriousKarmaDog
This feels weird to me.
Germin can you explain what you mean by this post. As at this point snivy had already flipped scum.
And by the looks of it the day one roden wagon could easily have been town motivated as greetings showed no real interest in roden. Which tends to come from scum who are convident that the player will flip. This often happens when teh scum presence on wagon is rather light and its beign driven by vocal town players-
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bob3141 Jack of All Trades
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you may want to reread my posts as your question makes no sense in terms of the analysis im doing. Just picking on a word in isolation is not questioning.In post 1842, curiouskarmadog wrote:
what was the motivation of the wagon? Why in your opinion did it start?In post 1833, bob3141 wrote: Just because a wagon is motivated by town doesnt mean there are no scum on it. scum show up in wagoni analysis as they skew the deck. Thus lone scum on wagon will not prodcue a skewing effect but 2 does and 3 even more so.
First thing you alwasy have to do is work out the wagon dynamics and then test that hypothesis. And thats not simplistic view of x was town so scum must be there. Its the ebs and flows. What was the velocity how did flipped players that are town and scum interact with it.-
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bob3141 Jack of All Trades
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This is the thing it should be quite clear that im using motivated in terms what alignment are motivating a wagon. Not the motivation of an individual.-
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bob3141 Jack of All Trades
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So gerain was sort of just having dream off a different game lolIn post 1841, Morning Tweet wrote: Gerain was responding to an imaginary gamestate in 1698
So on day one it was the HEM vs Roden show (with Roden being the primary suspect). HEM didn't buy Roden's read of him (to put it lightly)
Curiousdog had to go V/LA for the entirety of d1 and came under suspicion so they conceded to be VT early and they generally were controversial, curious was the secondary wagon
I agree with your analysis that scum probably didn't need to do much of anything nor did they
...
Come the second day, Roden is dead town and curiousdog seems like pretty obvious town to consensus now (Correct me if I'm wrong). HEM takes a backseat and a majority seems to favour furtive!scum. But clidd has a lot of traction too. at various points clidd comes under some pressure, ele does, but mostly furtive.
Then Camel replaces into Greeting's slot (Side note: Emperor/bob, Greeting, Klick/Dragons, and clidd all lurked out which makes the lim pool fairly big) but has one of the more suspicious performances ever and gets flash wagoned by like everyone (Starting with curiousdog). Daisy/Dragons/furtive vote, me and Ele dunk on camel some for more for good measure, Camel was scum
...
We don't really know a lot (relatively) abt clidd/?, Emperor/bob, Klick/Dragons.
gerain never left the game he just posts less and for a long time was suspected but that last slip (In conjunction with some towny ish earlier in the game) seemed good to me and some others. Like Gerain was posting the most of his thoughtsive ever seen
I'm pretty sure some people are still suspicious of furtive but i kinda havent been paying attntion
and HEM is a big worry for some cause he's devilish as scum. Would he votepark his mate and stop talking and let us ride? I dont see why not but like i didnt find that D2 play suspicious either. I also think his D1 on Roden wouldve been taxing as scum
So how fast was Camel flash wagoned. As ive been in games were scum were flash wagoned and it caught scum off guard, resulting in all town wagon on scum. And in others were the slot was viewed as going down, so scum bussed get ahead of the inevitable flash wagon.-
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bob3141 Jack of All Trades
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You got me, so that one down so far.
We have two wagons at e-2 so this will be an interesting dynamic
Dragon - MT, Elements, Bob
Clidd - HEM,furtiveg, dragon
clidd not active
gerain and curious with no votes at the moment-
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bob3141 Jack of All Trades
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well atleast this makes it easier to catch up lol.
Makes me wonder about the two wagons. States like this can be caused when all teh goign wagons are on town, resulting in lack of dripution to the dynamic as scum would not be disrupting it.-
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bob3141 Jack of All Trades
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My very first impression of this game was that MT was clear town. Ill have to look at elements again but a quick pass of his posts didnt realy feal like scum. So the question why is no one jumping on dragon or even upping the pressure on clidd.
If clidd was scum i would expect more pressure on dragon as from POV at the moment its all town. So either both are town and scum happy for teh lock to run down for bit or one is scum and scum arnt bothered. ONe scum down im leaning towards teh former beign more liekly at the moment-
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bob3141 Jack of All Trades
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mm after looking gerain iso im leaning towards town.
So if im hypothesis is right that the roden wagon was town motivated then if its right on balance at the moment im leanign toward furt.-
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bob3141 Jack of All Trades
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Does everyone not realise its 7 hours to deadline-
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bob3141 Jack of All Trades
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VOTE: Clidd
I think its clidd or no execution which is worse.-
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bob3141 Jack of All Trades
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The gamestate im leaning towards gerain beign town lol. This situation reminds me of game long ago when town could decide on execution all the while gerain wasnt voting. I think scum gerain would have already come down on one side as his last scum game he was on most wagons-
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bob3141 Jack of All Trades
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Hi Worst
I beleive the mason claim. Although i dont get some of elements posts if elements and worst are two of the masons.-
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bob3141 Jack of All Trades
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I was leaning towards furt last day 3 before i was guven a choice of two wagons i didnt think were that great. Only reason i was on dragon was that i saw the wgaoners as all town.
VOTE: bingle-
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bob3141 Jack of All Trades
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At the moment my solve
is bing and HEM/Dragon.-
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bob3141 Jack of All Trades
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Last 2 more by poe then anythign else as teh rest i see as town-
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bob3141 Jack of All Trades
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If i was to setup spec this is what my gut say this set up is
2 masons, one backup or novice mason, one invest vs one weak scum role-
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bob3141 Jack of All Trades
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played a game before that has that set up and this gamestate feels liek that one-
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bob3141 Jack of All Trades
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In post 1926, the worst wrote:
hey Bob nice to see you're back.In post 1918, bob3141 wrote: Hi Worst
I beleive the mason claim. Although i dont get some of elements posts if elements and worst are two of the masons.
can you expand on this because all flips so far have been vanilla?In post 1924, bob3141 wrote: If i was to setup spec this is what my gut say this set up is
2 masons, one backup or novice mason, one invest vs one weak scum role
Im a invest and i can confirm you have a third mason. Why when i came into the game i just sheeped the player that zippy had got a clear on N2-
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bob3141 Jack of All Trades
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I was hoping that post to be crumb worst but i think i made it to stand outy lol-
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bob3141 Jack of All Trades
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I would like to keep scum guessing at exactly what i am
Ill full claim day 4 if thats fine with everyone-
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bob3141 Jack of All Trades
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Its not a role and i think that should be obvious. Simpy a desciption of the result my role has. Like how doc/bg/babysitter are protective roles aswell as the babysitter also being blockerIn post 1942, curiouskarmadog wrote: is that a cop? I dont see it in the wiki
Even with the right gating fruit vendors can be investigative type roles.-
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bob3141 Jack of All Trades
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Im leaving the choice on this matter to the masons. Full claim day 3 or force scum to show there hand one way or another during n3. Either they nk to stop me getting another result or i get another result.In post 1946, curiouskarmadog wrote:
I would like the full claim now. clearly scum has been searching for a PR. if you are one you will be dead tonight. Why do you think you will be around to see d4.In post 1931, bob3141 wrote: I would like to keep scum guessing at exactly what i am
Ill full claim day 4 if thats fine with everyone-
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bob3141 Jack of All Trades
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This feels like misrep. As i only ever said there was a 3rd mason. I never gave any extra details away and what your doing feels like fishing.In post 1943, humaneatingmonkey wrote: investigative role of unknown nature, but was able to detect a novice mason. so a role cop of some sort. honestly the claim is dubious and i have a lot of questions.
To be honest with teh low energy at the end of the first day one i actual doubt dragon is scum. 2 wagons tied 3 for 3 on 5 execution. It could of gone either way when it would have hit the deadline. So gut says scum didnt care who got exeucted and just preffered it hitting clidd-
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bob3141 Jack of All Trades
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HEM why do you think the mason is novice?-
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bob3141 Jack of All Trades
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In post 1952, humaneatingmonkey wrote: how is it a misrep?
you literally said you were an invest and that you can confirm that you have a third mason.In post 1928, bob3141 wrote: Im a invest and i can confirm you have a third mason.
And I'm not hiding what I'm doing. I'm downright asking you to elaborate because your claim is dubious. If that's fishing then yes I'm fishing.
In post 1924, bob3141 wrote: 2 masons, one backup or novice mason, one invest vs one weak scum role
so was it or was it not a crumb? can you be clearer?In post 1929, bob3141 wrote: I was hoping that post to be crumb worst but i think i made it to stand outy lol
"you have"? are you saying your not town. Looks like perspective slip
yes my side does have 3rd mason but im not going to out what type of mason. But answer my question HEM why did you jump on the conclusion that it was novice and why would it matter. And why would a 3rd mason sound made up to you?
If you are town why would it even cross your mind that it would be fake, as where would the motivation be to make up that i know there is a 3rd mason?-
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bob3141 Jack of All Trades
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tells 50/50.In post 1958, humaneatingmonkey wrote:
how confident are you in this little tell of yoursIn post 1955, bob3141 wrote: "you have"? are you saying your not town. Looks like perspective slip-
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bob3141 Jack of All Trades
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In post 1956, humaneatingmonkey wrote: novice mason sounds made up because it's not really a role i have ever seen. you're the one who mentioned novice mason, so I'm not sure why it's me who jumped to any conclusions?
and i don't understand what other motivation you're looking for here, other than getting out of poe?
I never mention the 3rd mason was novice. The closest thing you have from be is info a crumb that was left slight vague to avoid givign scum to much info shoudl they spot it.
Just because you have never played with one doesnt cut it as there is no way your not experienced to know the full range of roles that can be in normals plus the gattings. Ive seen triple masons, 2 mason plus back up and 2 masons plus novice. suprised you havnt-
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bob3141 Jack of All Trades
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Though tell me bingle why in your view would anything other than a town player even mention it? And why now?In post 1959, Bingle wrote:
This is probably town, fwiw. Scummonkee is more likely to realize that if bob is lying about there being a novice mason the claimed masons would presumably just say that. Bob is probably telling the truth, which doesn’t really make him town. Rolecop definitely makes sense as a scum role in a three mason setup, and assuming the masons aren’t the novices in question that’s what it sounds like.In post 1956, humaneatingmonkey wrote: novice mason sounds made up because it's not really a role i have ever seen. you're the one who mentioned novice mason, so I'm not sure why it's me who jumped to any conclusions?
and i don't understand what other motivation you're looking for here, other than getting out of poe?
Also in set up like this scum would prob have one pr which means in your view i can still catch it if i was a town rolecop.-
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bob3141 Jack of All Trades
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Personaly i think the 3 masons should choose the order of executions. What ever they pick they have my vote-
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bob3141 Jack of All Trades
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but worst is a mason he is good solver. True i wouldnt give that power to elements
although prob obvous dont want to out the 3rd unless they hint that its fine-
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bob3141 Jack of All Trades
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yes def dont give the power to elements lol-
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bob3141 Jack of All Trades
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Sorry if they dont want to be outted yet but i suppose my crumbs would be to easy follow for scum with the knoledge that i was aware of mason as i soon as i repped in. And i only had one town read then.In post 1975, Bingle wrote: I’m ambivalent, tbh. The third being outed isn’t really risky (scum could maybe shoot them over the other masons) but also all three of you, worst, elements would have to die to risk them.
If we’re outing the third you should be the one to do it.
But the 3rd mason is my first impression town read. MT-
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bob3141 Jack of All Trades
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HEM if you think furt was scummy for leaving greeting wagon. why did you not rejoin it as although clidd was the 2nd in your poe, greeting was still 3rd?-
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bob3141 Jack of All Trades
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So it was an end of day wagon day 2.-
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bob3141 Jack of All Trades
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ouch didnt realise snivy repped into slot a little more than day before deadline. I know ive repped into scum slots at e-1 that a few days latter ended up being comprise execution-
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bob3141 Jack of All Trades
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I was hoping to eat a NK by avoiding a full claim but my role is mason finder. Was hoping to bluff mafia into night killing me in misguided belief that i was soemthing like role cop.
Since 3 masons are equal to 3 goons in 15p. There was a good chance scum woudl have minor weak role. small chance but might have allowed a mason into 3p and 2 into 5p-
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bob3141 Jack of All Trades
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though when i repped i foudn my role really funny as in my last game i didnt beleive HEM bg finder role
was it karma lol-
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bob3141 Jack of All Trades
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furtive just looks like forced bus. he had no excuse not be on the wagon so once it got to e-2 there is no way scum could avoided not forcing it to e-1
since there are clearly lots of town players that were not voting camel at bthat point teh self hammer is prob not to had over town cred-
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bob3141 Jack of All Trades
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Yeah i dont get its use. Only value i can see is helping a single player individual solve before the masons claim.In post 2010, the worst wrote: i find it bizarre that a town mason finder would, like, target anyone or claim ever but ok go off
To be honest i just want players to decide on my role sooner than later. Plus i dont think this game is hard to solve as even with my solve there is still one spare execution
Is see 9 players 3 are masons and one is me
that leaves 5
curous/greeting just looks tvs when ever i look at it
gerain looks more liek his town self.-
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bob3141 Jack of All Trades
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In post 2013, the worst wrote:
i'm not going to vca because (1) i'm not smart (2) it gets mixed results (3) someone will BULLY me but just a very surface-level observation. if scum self-hammer, it's usually because it will benefit one+ of their teammates. a vca-doer would consider this a sign that there is already scum on their wagon. but shooting oopsie indicates maybe this wagon is cleaner than we're letting on, unless oopsie had particularly good reads or was just super epic.In post 1686, Umlaut wrote:
talk to me about where u see partners around this elim
its just a sign scum knows they are dead. when i do vca analysis i look at rate of change. The key spots on that wagon we know are town via one flip and mason claim. Thats enough to switch the wagons momentum at near deadline. So it changes from pushing alternt wagon to not being caught off wagon.-
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bob3141 Jack of All Trades
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when furt dropped his vote snivys claim had already been dismissed. So zero chance of a redirection
Any hammer would have been very town ai as if it was as said then any scum player could have pretended to be off and hop for no execution-
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I simply want the town to decide on my claim before elo. Plus it got everyoen talking that allowed me to break the deadlock and get my scum read throughIn post 2053, humaneatingmonkey wrote: the town case for each:
bob has a slight edge where i think there's a negative incentive for bob to claim the way he did. he was in the poe, so a lie-low situation where he ducks out and hope humaneatingmonkey and std are more eliminatable than him. the knowledge of a third mason was probably something that he would have been tempted to keep if he was scum, and not broadcast... making you immediately identifiable.
std has been in snivy's train. his spot on the wagon was early enough for it to have actual murderous intent and playing against his wincon. although we don't know if a bus has been orchestrated or previously agreed upon.
there's also a scumcase for each but that's boring.
If i fake claim vt as town i leave a small gap for scum to fake claim. If i was scum with this role i would of just claimed vt at elo mass claim
Also i never kill MT as scum but worst with this game state-
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bob3141 Jack of All Trades
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VOTE: Dragon
I think this is the next best exe. Any poe should only contain dragon, HEM and me.-
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bob3141 Jack of All Trades
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Its fine, it prob got removed when the site moved from drop boxes to type fieldIn post 2045, the worst wrote: sorry, i could have sworn bob's pronoun field was set.
wish i had this game solved but please don't sleep on scum!bob they are not going to be night killed :')-
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bob3141 Jack of All Trades
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Im hurtIn post 2044, the worst wrote: emperor literally did nothing but (1) talk up when pushed, (2) complain about not being allowed to lurk so i'm fine calling that a scum pr iso
el is kinda easy to have an opinion on and this is a really hedgy read.In post 1819, bob3141 wrote: elements is unconfirmed in first 4 too so taht another to look at. But is also hit town indicator for me, even if it is weak one that gets trumped by iso
strongest read in bob's iso and he's now admitted this was tmi (regardless of alignment)In post 1821, bob3141 wrote: A very townie post
does anyone else pick this up? i've read gerain townreads in the mason chat. i don't get it at all. i'm not sure if gamestate is the word i'd use to describe any of these reads though?In post 1873, bob3141 wrote: The gamestate im leaning towards gerain beign town lol. This situation reminds me of game long ago when town could decide on execution all the while gerain wasnt voting. I think scum gerain would have already come down on one side as his last scum game he was on most wagons
i kept thinking this claim was too self-damaging to come from scum. but realistically all it does is justify a nk on a slot who is more threatening than myself & elements. it's independently anti-town to out mt as a mason or the existence of a third mason but hear me out. this is a scum role, and anyone with the town role should be holstering unless they're clearing scum-mason-claim wifom.In post 2009, bob3141 wrote: though when i repped i foudn my role really funny as in my last game i didnt beleive HEM bg finder role
was it karma lol
possible this is a traitor role or smth too
the "i was hoping to draw a nightkill" is cute in theory. but then you consider that bob allegedly tried to draw a nightkill by outing the fact that there are three confirmed-town players who need to be nightkilled before the final phase/s and it's like
??? there's no way this draws shots off masons
sorry the more i think the less i see this as a town play
all bob's other reads are like, wagonomics or nightkill theories which don't really make me think he's approaching this game in a way that solves it either tbh
Not solving the game. i pretty much did that as soon as i repped in.
To be honest if i didnt know MT was a mason i would of still town read them. And i never out them as scum but simply kill them in the night. Also to be honest the masons outed themselves and as soon as one mason dies they say who the third is. So the only diff is that scum shot mt instead of you last night. Also selfish reason of me wanting to joke with HEM about my role. I dint beleive his bg finder and i rep straight into a game where im mason finder lol
Also i spotted furt with wagononics and sure gerain and curious are town with it-
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bob3141 Jack of All Trades
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Also i would never vote for my partner in game with 3 masons still alive.-
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bob3141 Jack of All Trades
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gerain i doubt is scum as town gerain will just sit on his hands if his prefered exeution isnt up. A scum gerain is happy to bush and get his hands dirty. Fact gerain hasnt been on single scum execution makes it very likely he is town.-
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bob3141 Jack of All Trades
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After dragon pick either me or HEM next im not to bothered as town wins either way as i cant see curious or gerain being scum.
Greeting and furt both push curious at the same time when the d1 wagon was going up. So looks very much like setting up executions.-
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bob3141 Jack of All Trades
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