Mini 275: Subject Mafia - It's all over!

[pablito]

Hello all.

Random

Vote: Quailman

[pablito]

FOS: cropcircles

because I'm not getting why you're jumping on Turbo when both sides of the argument seem to have decent points. I'm not sure if you're scum starting a bandwagon or if you're strongly on Stewie's side.

[pablito]

Alrighty, so Quailman doesn't need my vote anymore, and I don't see anything scummy from him - so

Unvote: Quailman

.

And honestly, I think the random voting arguments are just distracting us from some better discussion. But for right now, I can see why the arguments started and what scant clues they are offering.

[pablito]

Sorry I haven't posted much lately. Man, I'm gonna have to re-read the whole exchange between turbo and cropcircles again. On my first read, they both have valid points, but I'll look for tells and holes in logic once I take a third-over.

[pablito]

Alright, I don't believe that Turbo has done anything negligibly scummy. Stupid yes - especially using FOS for a reason other than suspicion. Aggressive, also. But he's just spraying bullets everywhere trying to get some small hit - and then willing to jump on that fault once he finds that hit. I can tolerate that strategy for the first day when there is little else to go off of, but as I've said before, it can begin to become distracting and take away from other legitimate discussion. I hope that my interpretation is correct Turbo, otherwise feel free to correct me.

Or he's just covering himself very poorly.

[pablito]

Turbo, is it coincidental that snowmonkey mentions two names - one which is yours - and then you jump to vote for the second name mentioned? You make sense why you did it, but it just seemed very convenient for you.

However, I too would like to see what Ranger has to say, so

Vote: RangeroftheNorth

[pablito]

Turbo has made many questionable moves, and I'm currently attributing them to odd gameplay than scumminess. Either Turbo's been fairly horrible as scum, or fairly horrible as pro-town. And I'm guessing that a scum wouldn't be that aggressive and making so many mistakes this early. Apparently so do most voters, since we're currently voting for lurkers.

But while I'm on the subject of Turbo:

In fact, because everybody else seems to hate my early game play and you are here understanding it all I'm tempted to think you are ingratiating yourself with a

townie

.

Could you explain this further, Turbo? Was this a hidden claim or just a mix-up? I missed this first time around, and I'd like to see what say you. Because it would be interesting if a scum subtly dropped a hint like this only to come back to it later.

[pablito]

Horrible as pro-town? If cropcircles dies and comes up scum, will you take it back?

Yes, of course - and both you and cropcircles are still on my radar at the moment.

Could you explain this further, Turbo? Was this a hidden claim or just a mix-up?

I meant it in the "pro-town" sense, not the "no abilities" sense.

I thought this was what you meant, and I just wanted to see how you'd react. And your reaction gave me no significant tell.

I do hope that Monday is explosive because this weekend has been a bit lagging for this game.

[pablito]

Further, he had already agreed with me that we have had a successful Doctor protection or Role-blocking last night. And

then

he goes on to say that he thought

only the Cop

had any actions. Not only is that contradictory, but he is now also claiming "not-Doctor" and "not-Role-Blocker".

I didn't even notice it started with a normal night. Well, I knew it was night, and we had a morning scene and all, but the last few games I have been in did the cop head start night 0 kind of thing.

So, yeah... either doc or block... unless the mafia was miali and... ahdunno, someone else that just never checked in? Or would the mod have replaced mafia before the game started? Seems like that woudl be to much of a mafia/power role giveaway.

petroleumjelly, you have the order mixed up. I perceive that Jimmy believed it was a cop head start game and

then

admits the successful role-blocking or doctor save. The order is important because it showed that Jimmy self-corrected and also was open to many different possibilities (including an odd mafia no-kill).

Unvote: Rangerofthenorth

I believe his explanations are sound.

[pablito]

there is a different style of play over here than im accustomed to. but, regarding ranger, ive seen this type of play before and id say more than 75% of the time its a wolf. if you'd like to wrap your brain around the last question feel free. he's implicating both you and pablito.

snowmonkey, are you labelling this "style of play" only as defensive? or is there more that I'm not picking up about your suspicions on Ranger? If Ranger is only defensive and there's not much more to take from his comments, I'd say that's weak grounds for accusations. Because if someone is accused of lurking, I think it's reasonable to be defensive about that type of accusation.

oh, and perhaps a prod for Quailman soon? I haven't seen him in a while.

[pablito]

As for why I am not posting much, I don't really find anything really suspicious, exept the fact that you are all

coming to conclusions from things which aren't really scummy

, but I can't vote for all of you. I wouldn't if I could anyways, because if you all OMGUS vote me, then I'd die.

It's day one, and all it takes is a half-assed reason to vote for someone. We got plenty of half-assed reasons, let's pick one and stick to it.

Stewie, it's quite a big statement to say that we are coming to conclusions from non-scummy things without backing it up with some evidence. I believe that you're including the Turbo-cropcircles debate eons ago, but could you be more clear what has happened, but more importantly who is doing all of this? I think it would be important to bring the offenders into awareness of their "reaching" to see if we can read more into it all...unless you believe that we've already done it all with both Turbo and snowmonkey. Therefore for the moment,

FOS: Stewie

[pablito]

If Stewie ever turns up scum, I think it would be time to take a good look at pablito. Thoughts?

Sure no problem. Everyone is pretty much getting linked to me these days, anyhow.

However, right now I'm going to

Vote: Stewie

- I find it odd that Stewie decided to write a

huge post

that understandably got lost. However, the main reason I continue to suspect Stewie right now is that his

huge post

was in response to Turbovolver and not to me at all. I directed some questions to him alone and he has yet to answer. I feel that Stewie was trying to blow me off and misdirect everyone toward Turbo's analysis of Stewie rather than simply defending himself and explaining past actions. And when Stewie did counter snowmonkey, it was unsatisfying to me.

Right now my suspicions on Stewie are more confirmed than my suspicions on Sotty7 or snowmonkey, so I feel comfortable voting Stewie at this point. As for the Sotty7/Stewie link - I feel it's a possibility, but I think this might be reaching too far right now.

[pablito]

My lost post was targetted mainly at Turbo's long post, which I will not do again.

Can't see how you can interpret "mainly" as "to Turbovolver and not to me at all." When I said "mostly," you were actually the exeption, because your post deserved a response. If you are town, read more carefully next time, and if you are not, then nice try.

I'm a bit suspicious of what pablito is saying here.

If a response to Pablito was the main exception in your

huge post

which mainly addressed Turbo's huge post, then why not say, "I lost a post mainly about what Turbo and Pablito have said"? That's what I'm questioning. But nonetheless, it still adds to my point that you've mainly ignored my questions and still haven't addressed my post 159 - and I believe you're trying to veer away from answering it. And that to me is scummy.

In your original "I lost my

huge post

" post (185), you hinted at replying to Turbo and then you went off and addressed/quoted cropcircles. In my opinion, you did some self-editing (which in itself may be a tell). If I am to believe that your original

huge post

truly did address mainly Turbo and then a little bit of Pablito, then why would you also address cropcircles in the replacement post? I would tend to believe that the replacement post would address in brief the same exact people and arguments that your original post would address. My opinion is that you've been covering yourself by making some retroactive editing in your statements, and is thus why I find you scummy, Stewie.

[pablito]

I can't be bothered to read the long posts right now, but I'll try to do that tomorrow. As a note, I will be gone from Friday morning until Sunday afternoon.

As for snowmonkey, right now the lack of full claim wants to make me believe that he has a power role, and he has a right to not claim if he doesn't want to on the first day. However, the way that he defends himself and the right to not claim is uncivil and unconventional. As Don Gaetano has stated before repeatedly, it's almost as if snow wants to get lynched - as if it's a signal that he is a vanilla townie and that he could be sacrificing himself to protect the power roles. This is a stupid analysis, but snow simply does not make any sense.

At the moment, I would rather not lynch snowmonkey because I do fear that he has a power role, but it's fairly obvious that snowmonkey isn't really helping uncover scum either, so I don't condone his lynch. I'd much rather lynch Stewie though. It seems that some people might be on the snowmonkey bandwagon only because they find him as not analyzing for the pro-town stance.

[pablito]

dude, seriously, go back, read my posts, decide for yourself. if you cant figure it out then you have no business playing this game. im not going to spoon feed it to you. but, in reality, I already have. lynch me or not.

No need to resort to ad hominem attacks. We've all been giving opinions on each other's gameplay and behavior, but no need to attack personality.

And snowmonkey, you tell us that you've spoon fed us, but if almost half of us can't understand where you stand, then something's wrong with the communication.

You've had five vote you and only Don Gaetano has unvoted you (but very shortly re-voted you), despite the strong danger that you'll be the lynch-target today. Of course, I believe that there's at least one scum putting up your total - but fact is, no one has been unswayed by any of your arguments. In fact, everyone probably suspects you to some point - but those who aren't voting you are probably doing so because they think someone is MORE suspicious (PJ, Turbo, and Pablito have all stated that lynching snowmonkey is an activity they'd be willing to join). I'm not sure that you are scum, mainly because I don't think any scum could get away with some of your statements - just because you've taken way too many risks so far. And your half claim was good enough for me. I guess, this is the moment when I stupidly defend snowmonkey for a small bit.

Math is a huge subject. If we are to believe that roles logically match their subjects (and I believe the majority do), then I would believe that Math should be an important role. It's one of the three Rs ('rithemetic) and such a core subject should have some importance in this game. So assuming what little snow has given us from his half-claim, I can only assume that snow either has some role (not-townie) or he's scum and that's why we aren't getting the second part.

So regarding the "lynch snowmonkey or not" predicament we're in. If snowmonkey is scum, I would look specifically at one of Quailman/Sineish as scum (this may explain why snowmonkey seems to be giving up - one of his scum partners is practically gone), and the other being of PJ/Turbo/Pablito - as those who have stated that voting for snowmonkey is a possibility but these were the last to have jumped on. As for the five that vote snowmonkey - most votes were fairly early - and unless one of these five unvotes within the next two days - I wouldn't suspect them too much, but I wouldn't rule them out. As for cropcircles, he hasn't been around, so that might be lurking a bit, so that still keeps him in.

Now if snowmonkey is not scum, I would look at any of the five who originally voted him - because there's a strong chance at least one of those five are scum then.

But if everyone changes their mind and goes after someone else (which makes more sense to me - even though snowmonkey is still in my top 4 list of suspects), then things change.

I will keep my vote the same - I feel comfortable with my vote on Stewie, especially after reading some others' analyses. And I already said I'll be gone before deadline, so discuss - just don't let complacency and too many diversions keep away from coming to a sensible conclusion while some of us are gone before deadline (PJ also said he'll be gone this weekend).

[pablito]

Maybe it's just that none of you (who don't think we should lynch Snowmonkey) looks at this from a metagaming point of view. If you don't even consider meta-gaming issues then I can see how many people have come to the conclusion that he could very well be pro-town, but when you take metagaming issues into account, it's impossible to let him live right now. If it's this statement you disagree with, then read my reasoning for it, and tell me what you disagree with.

=====

And Pablito, why do you refer to yourself in the 3rd person and even advocate, that we may want to lynch you tomorow?

First I'll answer your second question. Sometimes during long posts it's hard to remember who the speaker is, so that's why the third person when listing people. And I include myself as a possibility whenever possible because if I purposely exclude myself someone might interpret it as a ploy to subconsciously divert readers away from my presence.

And Don, I agree that snowmonkey has not acted in the town's best interests and may be detrimental to keep around - "pro-town" or scum. But at the moment, I cannot comfortably add the sixth vote on snowmonkey.

However, after my last post, I realized that a tie vote could be possible if one person switched from snowmonkey to Stewie. And a tie vote would lead to no-lynch this day, since we need a simple majority. So I'm going to

Unvote: Stewie

. But I'll check tomorrow before I leave to see if I want to place any vote at all.

[pablito]

I slept on it, and I decided to

Vote: snowmonkey

. I've suspected him before, but I only excluded him from the short list because I thought he was way too scummy.

[pablito]

Vote: Sineish

for not being around.

The other mason can claim if s/he wants but shouldn't have to.

[pablito]

Post 59

All right. I don't necessarily agree with the percentages above, but I almost never like it when I hear such phrases as "One of these people is probably scum", "If one is scum, the other is probably scum", or "If it turns out X is telilng the truth, we lynch Y". I may just be paranoid of scum setting up double lynches, but I usually do not put very much weight into those types of statements, and I try to avoid them unless I genuinely feel it to be true.

Using your logic, you must be very sure that your statements A B C are true.


Now, to defend myself.

As for Unvoting Quailman - I didn't see anything from Quailman and perhaps I unvoted too quickly. In my opinion, my vote wasn't doing too much and I hadn't seen anything from Quailman, so I took off my vote.

The Turbo/Pablito connection is fairly obvious. We've had similar actions and sometimes in unison. I haven't ruled out Turbo as being scum, though.

As for my vote switching, it looks suspicious and is one of your most valid points. Both snowmonkey and Stewie were in my list of top suspects. I initially supported a Stewie lynch mainly because I felt that his defense of some attacks were weak. I was suspicious of snowmonkey, but his actions were so incredulous that I believed that I attributed it more to it being his first game. The lack of claiming finally got to me and I opted to go against snowmonkey. I felt that I was making up too many excuses for snowmonkey (and also Turbo), and that I should trust my gut on the first day rather than overthinking it.

As for reason number five - I noted to look at the five voters. The logic there is sound, if snowmonkey turned up townie, look at the people that voted him before the deadline. Pointing this out should was necessary but also obvious - and the fact that Turbo nor Quailman were not on that list was independent of my own actions.

[pablito]

Are you italicizing because one minute after you posted 330, I happened to reply to your original attacks? Because obviously my post took more than a minute, so...pfft

[pablito]

Btw, post 333 was done jokingly.

And PJ, then you genuinely feel that option C is true - this is noted.

[pablito]

-Post 264: Pablito says if Snowmonkey is scum to look at “Quailman/Sineish”, and then me/Turbo/Pablito

(what?!)

. Says if Snowmonkey isn’t scum, to look at the five voters, and says his vote on Stewie is fine.

Well in this post, I did mention to look at everyone - the only person I left out is cropcircles because I hadn't received a read on where he stood with snowmonkey - and as evidenced by him placing the seventh vote (before the deadline) - he would probably belong in the if "snowmonkey turns up townie" category.

I feel right now that PJ is tailoring his evidence to his argument and not necessarily using evidence to confirm his suspicions. I'm really suspicious of him using post 264 as one of the keystones in his suspicions. And it's obvious it was coming, but

Unvote, Vote: petroleumjelly

[pablito]

You weren't kidding PJ when you said Turbo was “spraying bullets”...

Actually this was originally me post 53.

I'm surprised no one has questioned the sanity of PJ yet. Of course, I am the one to question this since he received the guilty result on me. But especially considering the subject - drama - I am yet to be convinced that PJ isn't an insane cop. Nonetheless, I believe that PJ is a cop, there is no denying this. I would doubt that a scum would just come out with such a revelation like this out of the blue - it would be too risky.

Unvote: petroleumjelly

.

[pablito]

As for Turbo offering services as a vig, it's a stupid move. Turbo has night kill immunity if he doesn't night kill - therefore Turbo must be lynched in order to secure that he leaves (even whether he is godfather or SK). It's great that Turbo has admitted that he's anti-town, but in a 6 person round - (which is what Turbo has suggested as an option) - if Turbo is in it, we possibly have three mafia, Turbo and two pro-town. lynch turbo and it's a mafia win. Even if there are two mafia, turbo and three pro-town - lynch turbo, mafia NK then it's two mafia two pro-town and the game is over. The longer Turbo stays around, the more volatile the game situation remains because of the uncertainty of remaining rounds possible. Turbo can accelerate us to a lynch-or-lose situation just before he leaves.

I already hinted at my role earlier - I am a cop. This is why I questioned the sanity of PJ. It would be extremely rare to have an insane solo cop. At the same time, I questioned my own sanity once I found out that PJ is likely a cop. I make a huge assumption that PJ is not scum based on his motives for revealing all of this - plus PJ has not made any significant anti-town moves. It makes sense that we have two cops since we potentially have three mafia with one SK (unless it's actually only two mafia with a SK). Anyone want to guess who I investigated Night Zero?

Vote: Turbovolver

it's the right move now.

But.

Another option might be to

lynch somebody

, have RotN Vig Pablito, have Turbo kill SK somebody else, so that we can get 3 kills at once and I will have another investigation for tomorrow (as well as finding out whether I am Sane or Insane), but the problem is scum will also get a kill (making one lynch and 3 night kills, bring us down to 6 players). We can then lynch Turbo, and if RotN is still alive, we can direct his kill towards somebody else if it is necessary, while losing another overnight to scum (bringing us to 3 players and an endgame situation unless we catch all the scum by this point).

If you have gotten a guilty result on anyone and an innocent result on another person - you can say with great certainty that you are either sane or insane. Why advocate lynching "somebody" that is not pablito, Turbo or Stewie???

With your three-kill plan, you have subtly suggested that the town puts itself into a horrible position and make it very easy for scum to win. This is not a pro-town move. Furthermore, this is heavily OPTIMISTIC logic. If we are to believe that there is only a doctor or a roleblocker and not both - I cannot see how scum (and/or SK) would allow both the cop and the vig to last this four-player loss plan.

FOS: petroleumjelly

I can no longer believe that PJ's claim was done in the best interest of the town. There still exists the possibility that this claim was for a scum to jump the gun and proactively:

a) get a counter-claim on the cop(s) - which luckily I am.
b) advocate for a useless lynch on someone who was NOT investigated.
c) allow for PJ plus his two scum partners to be left with Turbo and two pro-town players.

Even with this faulty logic - I think the correct move is to lynch Turbo today.

[pablito]

Well PJ, you're still tailoring your evidence and making harsh assumptions based on your biases. I never said that I investigated Turbo (again, PJ is using faulty logic and reading things incorrectly) - I actually investigated Quailman on Night zero (you know, since you yourself linked him to me I thought it would have been obvious who I investigated). And I received an innocent result. I only voted him to see if anyone would join on him. And when no one did - I unvoted him (probably the original reason why you suspected me). Night one I investigated cropcircles and also got an innocent result. I never insinuated that there was a insane/sane duo - knowing that I had two innocent results (which you probably should have waited for me to mention instead of assuming once again) - I was not sure if we had a naive cop.

Last night I investigated cropcircles because he was the last person to put a vote on snowmonkey - especially so quickly after I placed my own vote. I found that a bit suspicious and with his lurking nature and his early argument with turbo, I questioned him a bit.

Turbo - the night when no one died was night zero. that's what I referred to.

As for a full claim - I"m sorry I forgot it in the original post, I meant to put it.

History - I know the names of kings and queens of the past and whether they used their powers for good or bad.

And PJ, I still don't understand why you even entertain the possibility of not lynching stewie, pablito or turbo with your investigations and Turbo's claim. I know that you listed it only as an option - but why even keep it as a possibility?

[pablito]

As to defend my hesitance, I had done my night investigations and suddenly someone comes up and says they're the cop. I question the timing and reasoning of PJ and I'm protective of what I say because if PJ was scum trying to sacrifice-claim, then I could be potentially giving away two innocents in doing so. I now believe that PJ is pro-town cop but is just using aggressive killing as a way to help narrow his own investigations.

I know that I'm either lynched or vigged tonight despite my claim. It's only right. With me getting two innocent results and PJ getting one innocent and a guilty - It means we either have a naive/insane or naive/sane combination or sane/scum combo. So unless PJ is scum, the town can only assume that Stewie or me is scum. And since I'm probably the naive cop - I'll have to die to show PJ's sanity/alignment.

So you have three options regarding PJ:

1) Believe PJ is pro-town insane and then Stewie is next to lynch (or vig him if you wish).
2) Believe PJ is pro-town sane and by then I should be vigged (as Sotty suggests) which will prove that he's insane.
3) Believe PJ is scum and that mass confusion can only happen in the future with a strong possibility that Stewie is a partner.


If I need to be night-killed night 2 to sort the chaos, I'll gladly be the target, I need to do what's best for the town.

[pablito]

Unvote: Turbovolver

Thank you Turbo for believing me. I'd rather see more discussion before we all make some hasty moves tonight.

[pablito]

Vote: Turbovolver

I sense no discussion will occur.

[pablito]

This game was won and lost in the night phase. Scum made very poor night kills (actually none were good at all, sorry guys) and PJ made excellent night choices. A significant day action that really affected the game was Turbo's vig claim. Outing the vig made it a lot easier for RotN to vig properly and effectively.

As for my strong defense of Turbo, I meant to stop the bandwagon on him, but I didn't really want to be that linked to him. I kinda just had to live with it and I knew once it happened that I was going to be the first dead mafia.

great game on all sides, though.