Mini Normal 1375 - Over

[Carbondioxide]

Vote:Carbondioxide

What did you to do to Oxygen, huh? Did you KILL him?

OMGUS! Like nadroj said, we're just

"working together"

... think of it as a merger, not a takeover.

Vote: McStab

[Carbondioxide]

Vote:Carbondioxide

What did you to do to Oxygen, huh? Did you KILL him?

OMGUS! Like nadroj said, we're just

"working together"

... think of it as a merger, not a takeover.

Vote: McStab

The slight buddying here is noted, which makes this vote slightly better than random.

UNVOTE: McStab
VOTE: carbondioxide

Hmm... so you think I'm buddying? With you? Presumably not... then with McStab? Buddying by voting for him. Hmm... that'd be an interesting tactic as scum, trying to start a wagon against my scum-buddy.

Obviously I was replying (I thought, with wit and humour) to the 'accusation' I killed oxygen. Carbon & Oxygen "work together" to form CO2... or perhaps you weren't much good at science at school?

Then again... McStab was

so

convinced (presumably by a similar argument/reason) he hasn't voted for me... whereas you're mighty keen to leap in with both feet (and a vote). Perhaps you're panicking slightly that my off-hand joke made it look like we're working together. I know I'm not your scum-buddy... but that doesn't mean you're not scum.

Vote: nadroj15

[Carbondioxide]

McStab, If you are talking about diatomic oxygen, then you are turning just as much oxygen into carbon dioxide even though you're not named after it.

Carbondioxide, I thought it was fairly obvious that nadroj was saying that you were buddying with him. You even seemed to realize it by the end of the post. Why the presumably not?

VOTE: Carbondioxide

I'm confused (and a noobie)... why would anyone buddy with anyone unless they were scum-buddies?

My read of it was that nadroj was accusing me of buddying, I assumed with him but couldn't figure out why he'd do that (on my assumption that buddies = scum). By doing so he would have, by implication said that he and I were both scum. I couldn't work out why anyone would openly do that — out themselves as scum... hence my voting for him as he was, by my read, trying to make me look scummy and simultaneously deflecting attention from himself.

[Carbondioxide]

I'm confused (and a noobie)... why would anyone buddy with anyone unless they were scum-buddies?

My read of it was that nadroj was accusing me of buddying, I assumed with him but couldn't figure out why he'd do that (on my assumption that buddies = scum). By doing so he would have,

by implication said that he and I were both scum

. I couldn't work out why anyone would openly do that — out themselves as scum... hence my voting for him as he was, by my read, trying to make me look scummy and

simultaneously deflecting attention from himself

.

These statements seem to be at odds. How was he deflecting attention from himself if he was implying his own guilt?

Ok... I've had a think about this overnight (and done some more MS research/reading). I get it now. I feel like such a noob...

Buddying is a scum-tell (if a faint one) as the implication is that a scummer is coming across all

"Ohhh yeah, you and me against all the scum eh? Ol' pal... o'd buddy... us Townies have to stick together."

whilst he/she lines up the next mafia hit. Duh...

I'd read it as buddies

both

being scum... so nadroj accusing me of buddying I took as him accusing me (and by implication himself too) of being scum... but (I thought) doing a bit of a

"We might both be scum... but kill him first!"

hence his vote for me... and my subsequent confusion/accusations of deflecting.

Right. Now I've got this buddy thing straight in my head I think it's time I shut the f**k up for a bit. I'm creating enough smoke here to hide an army of mafia (who must be loving this) whilst everyone else is able to post just analysing me and my ramblings. If I button it for a bit, I'd like to see more from other players. I've already posted as much as the mod which is kinda crazy.

[Carbondioxide]

CO2, if you are backtracking on what you previously thought then is there a reason your vote is still on nadroj?

That's a fair question. He started this whole "buddying" thing and all the scientific terms (covalent who now?) but he is at least posting rather than lurking. I find lurking annoying... if you're not contributing anything what use are you to the Town?

Thus far Demon Core & Hoopla have both posted only to vote. No reasons; no expansion; not even a half-hearted FoS. So, in an attempt to at least bring one of them to the table:

VOTE: Hoopla — as she was the first to post aforesaid rather unhelpful 'vote and nothing else' post.

[Carbondioxide]

Kingdom: as to why I have a chemistry name but don't know covalent (you asked for this!). Carbondioxide = CO2. My favourite football team is Colchester United whose postcode is (or was before they moved ie when I started supporting them) CO2.

Now I've a question for you. How can you be so sure that vote pressures on Hoopla are "not going to accomplish anything"?

[Carbondioxide]

There seems to be a lot of to'ing and fro'ing here.

Personally, I'm not happy with Hoopla's self vote. I understand there may be positive reasons to do this as Town and, as has been said, it has certainly kick-started this game. However, my vote was/is on Hoopla as she didn't contribute much to the efforts to scum hunt and by not posting much herself is offering no chance to get a read on her. That looks scummy to me. Even if it's not scummy it's just not helpful so if we string her up and she turns out to be Town I wouldn't feel too bad as we won't have lost much if she continues not to contribute.

Furthermore, this

"Because that's what townies do - they watch each others' back."

is effectively a town claim... albeit a (badly) disguised one. I'm not comfortable with all this general assumption "Hoopla's Hoopla. She's crazy... but she's probably Town." based on zilch. We run the risk of the rumour/suspicion of Hoopla's townie-ness becoming 'fact' as it's been repeated so often, then she'll be waaaaaay off radar, exactly where scum want to be.

I'm happy with my vote staying where it is for now. That said, my dislike of lurking, contributing nothing has my FoS waving near Scooby & Demon Core.

[Carbondioxide]

CO₂, who is assuming Hoopla is town other than Demon Core?

Perhaps not so much assuming Hoopla is definitely Town but just lazily (maliciously?) letting it slip into conversation and generally defending Hoopla making her seem more Town without her having to say anything herself, like so:

Starting with you

Kingdom:

Fair warning, the pressure votes on Hoopla are not going to accomplish anything.

Am I the only person to interpret Hoopla's post as "People are calling me crazy? I guess I'll prove them right." I can't claim to say why she did that, but I still see it as completely null.

Nadroj:

- who, despite "knowing" Hoopla so well he gets her gender wrong:

Hoopla is, with no other way to put it, Hoopla. He's known for doing crazy things, and you've been around this site for a while.

McStab:

Plus the vote on Hoopla is shameless sheeping/bandwagoning.

Hoopla's not being helpful, but I feel as though that'll change.

Elias:

UNVOTE: Hoopla
Why exactly are you viewing the self vote as a declaration of guilt? I missed a link in your logic train bro.

Scumhunter:

There is a feasible explanation for Hoopla-town, that she hasn't had time to post...

Hoopla, can you please take the game seriously and post? I know you are a capable town player so if you are town, would hate to lose you here...

None of it conclusive but it makes me uncomfortable. By playing it quiet, lurking and contributing little information (apart from some odd buddying with Demon Core in posts #100-#105) Hoopla's letting a lot of other people build-up and then knock down a case against her.

[Carbondioxide]

I'm really not comfortable with all this "x always plays like that..." or "y always starts slowly" stuff. That may mean they're good at MS, in that its therefore hard to tell if they're scum or town, but it doesn't mean they're not scummy.

Hoopla, I'm not digging this "It'll get easier from here on in" line either. If you really can't be bothered to engage with this game (which is how you're coming across) then you're not much help to the Town. If we lynch you and you're not scum, it's hardly as if we'll have lost our biggest scum-hunter, clue-finder, taxing question-asker etc. is it?

Vote pressure on you

hasn't

achieved much though, so I'll play along (for now).

Vote: McStabb

- to see if pressure at least brings him to the table.

[Carbondioxide]

Hoopla, can you just be straightforward about why you self-voted.

You're not dim. It should be obvious. You don't need me to walk you through it.

Ok. I AM "dim" and/or quite new to MS so I'd appreciate it if you walked me through it. You've been asked several times now. If it's soooo obvious it shouldn't take you long, should it?

[Carbondioxide]

Well, things are starting to get a little more lively/interesting aren't they? Hopefully that can combat these rather glib "I only get active when I'm interested" style comments, which I don't find all that helpful. If you can't get interested perhaps you're either playing too many other MS games?

Welcome too our replacees too, hopefully you'll be more active to liven things up a little — though I do find the ragequit and sheeping ragequit rather a shame, and a shame for the game.

For what it's worth, here are the reads I have so far (in alphabetical order... don't be offended/reassured if I don't mention you, it's just you're probably 'null' so far):

DunhamGanger

: Town (largely based on Robbnva's previous play in that role)

Hoopla

: scummy (still one of my main scum reads. All the self-vote

hilarity

smokescreen; contributing little or nothing; curious attempts at 'subtle' buddying)

McStab

: scummy (seems confused between keeping his head down and minimal posting... perhaps erring on the former as when he does post makes himself look even

more

scummy with careless slips. And, when called on them by Ranmaru's recent post 188, completely ignored this to throw blame at Starbuckles and Hoopla. Deflecting much?

Nadroj15

: Mild scum-read (waaaaaaaay too quiet for my liking). No post for nigh on 5 days?; 3 posts since kick-off? Only "mild" as I've so little to go on plus, looking at his meta it seems he goes through these long spells of inactivity.

scooby

: Mild scum-read. (similar to Nadroj in that he's, broadly speaking, too quiet so not being that helpful to the Town. When he does post it's to sling accusations or post crap 'claims' like

"scooby is also pretty fucking town, if you ask"

- which no-one did.

Demon Core

: Mild scum-read. (another unhelpfully quiet player, posting only to partake in weird buddying with Hoopla (above) which struck me as borderline arrogance of "Let's blatantly buddy up and laugh ourselves sick when no-one lynches us!".

I've got no read or I'm 50/50 on: Kingdom (think all the 'chemistry' chat is misplaced banter); Ranmaru (was fairly null on ValiliaRei); Scumhunter (just a fence sitter, neither scum nor town); Elias (weirdly odd 'deliberate' anti-buddying with Kingdom, but otherwise meh); & Starbuckles (not enough to go on yet).

With all that said I'm going to UNVOTE: McStabb (for now) and VOTE: nadroj to apply some pressure. I want to hear more from you and see if you'll contribute to the scumhunt.

[Carbondioxide]

Just because I forgot to post it before and to show off my new sig (and a note that I'm V/LA most weekends):

Vote: Ranmaru

.

Why? As you say yourself:

I also have a reason for my actions regarding Hoopla, but I can't state it now.

Suuuuuuuure.

A vote without sharing the reasons ain't that helpful in the scum-huntin'.

[Carbondioxide]

Quoting all messed up on my tablet. Got a spare bonus hour so catch-up reading. Ranmaru asked if I'd switch my pressure vote from nadroj now he's replaced out. Quick answer: yes. I wanted to hear more from nadroj so prepared to give BT time so I can get more of a read.

Though I'm getting a scummy read in McStab I'm in no rush for a lynching. Quick lynches just shorten Town time to gather info. I can only see quick-lynch favouring scum.

So - next pressure vote? Pressuring Hoopla seems to make little difference, so not for now; DemonCore I'm prepared to give the benefit of the doubt on the sickness claim (posted in all his games so an elaborate ruse if it is one); next on my list:

Vote: Scooby

His hyper-aggressive style is, I think, supposed to apply pressure on people but doesn't seem to work. It cost the Town the game with all the smoke/stink he kicked up. Scooby - if you've got reads on people it'd help the Town if you shared them rather than going all 'macho' and offering to "go 1-1". It's day 1! It's info gathering time. Help or you're a hindrance.

[Carbondioxide]

Bold broken too. Tsk. @MOD that vote for Scooby is genuine. Not 'accidentally' unbold.

[Carbondioxide]

Sorry - what was your question? How red are my 'red reads'? Fairly red for now - but as with the nature of the game I reserve the right to change my mind! I'm fairly sure of my scummy reads on McStab and Hoopla but why the rush? Tell me what Town gain from lynching McStab RIGHT NOW (as opposed to before deciding that, based on more information before the deadline - still some weeks away) and I'll consider voting him. For now I want more information to build reads.

[Carbondioxide]

Doh. Mixing up game deadlines. Still this game deadline is 4 days off. The 'no rush' argument stands - though things
slightly more urgent.

[Carbondioxide]

You think Hoopla is scum partly due to McStab's case but you also think McStab is deflecting. Which is it?

[/quote]

In post #193: (https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... 1#p4333181) I didn't say my read on Hoopla has anything to do with McStab? My scum-read on Hoopla is the weird self-vote (a distraction tactic I think, which worked); contributing nothing to the scum-hunt and; buddying.

I said McStab was deflecting, because he entirely ignored post #188 (https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... 3#p4332573) where Ranmaru pretty much pulled him to pieces. Instead, in his only posts since then, he threw mud at Starbuckles and Hoopla.

I get the idea that, if we get the lynch right, lynching early can be good... however, I still don't see the rush. Even since I posted the "no rush" comment, I've got more information (and reads) from you, Elias & Kingdom. Still nothing from McStab, so nothing to weaken the strength of my scum read on him, but information is power. The longer we have the better. If, come the deadline, McStab hangs we've lost nothing, only potentially gained.

[Carbondioxide]

Im serious, Scumhunter is SCUM

I'll try and make this easy for you. One key question:

WHY?

[Carbondioxide]

Well, my current vote (on Scooby) is effectively wasted there so, with the deadline looming, I'll switch to one of my scummier reads:

Vote: McStab

[Carbondioxide]

Unvote

.

Thorough and devastating analysis forthcoming

.

Here, Scooby posts a 'list' yet

Dumhamhammer

never addressed this.

Hmm... just wondering if this is a slip... or a Freudian slip? ¹Dum ²Ham ³

Hammer

. I admit it's a bit of a fiddly name but it's

DunhamGanger

. The ISO tells you that, the first post... it even auto-populates for the bits where you quoted him previously.

Not vote changing for me... but interesting.

[Carbondioxide]

@ demon core - why on earth are you posting all over the site and not posting in here?

---

Half baked and largely unexplained opinions and reads

Town: scooby, Hoopla, Kingdomphoneixwright (probably VR and squirrel man too)

Scum: McStab (this one is unexplained, deal with it), Scumhunter (every position is noncomittal and fencesittish, a lot of time is spent talking about Hoop's self vote reaching no conclusion, and yes-men tend to be scum)

VOTE: Scumhunter

As to why I think Demonhunter is town, all his posts are imbued with sincerity and an attitude of not giving a fuck about what people think of him. Scum never does this.

Also the post I just quoted has some awesome reads.

DemonCore (not to be confused with Scumhunter or DemonHunter(?)) not only rates you as Town but also agrees with your Scumhunter wagon, to the point of even voting for him... ergo he has "awesome reads". Agreeing with you

=

awesome... it could in fact be seen as scummy.

Unvote: McStab

As has been said, McStab's claim seems credible if not a nailed on alignment... worst case of leaving him alive ain't all that bad. Best case scenario is he helps the Town so leaving him alive makes sense... for now.

I need to have a good think about where my vote goes next. With the extended deadline there's no immediate rush.

[Carbondioxide]

Bah... that = should be struck-through (it kinda is... but not obvious). Should read: "Agreeing with you ≠ awesome".

[Carbondioxide]

Like I said, we have time... thanks to the deadline extension.

Next on my scummy-scale is Hoopla or DemonCore. Given DemonCore posted little and has now replaced out, that read is weaker than the other so...

Vote: Hoopla

[Carbondioxide]

Anti-prod. Lots of reading to do.

[Carbondioxide]

Oh wow... I'm just monumentally confused now.

I make that L-3 for Starbuckles now. On reflection the "both" slip doesn't look great, nor does the defence of "I assumed there'd be at least two mafia". If it was "at least" why not "THE mafia" or "two mafia"? Both is pretty definitive, and closed. If it's "both" there cannot be a third, fourth, twentieth or whatever.

I'm still suspicious of Hoopla and stick to my contention her playing style isn't especially helpful to the Town. However, not helpful to the Town doesn't necessarily = scum.

There are also players posting way too little, seemingly on purpose. Elias (who, two days ago, said "more tomorrow"); Dunham who's few posts don't bring much enlightenment; scooby who seems to be trying to win the competition for the fewest words in the most posts...

With the deadline looming Starbuckles is for the drop anyway... and I won't be on much over the weekend (if at all) so:

Vote: Starbuckles

now L-2... let's see if anyone's tempted to push it to L-1... and drop the hammer. I almost think we need a lynch now to get things moving and give more clues.

[Carbondioxide]

First place to look after a mis-lynch? On the dead Townie's wagon:

Starbuckles (7) - BT, Scumhunter, McStab, Ranmaru, Carbondioxide, Dunhumganger, Cartographer.

That'd make it a scum-in-7 chance of finding all the scum right? No. That'd be waaaaay too easy. Despite it being a scum-in-7 chance (quite a reduction in odds from scum-in-9) they killed BT too; making it scum-in-6. I'd be surprised if there's more than one scum on buckles' wagon. It's fairly sure there's at least one on there but I'm thinking two at most... assuming there are more than two scum. If there's >2 scum on Starbuckle's wagon then they just greatly reduced their odds of being found by killing BT.

I'm going back to analyse those that

didn't

vote for Starbuckles and are probably sitting in a puddle of self congratulation right now: scooby; Hoopla and the non-voting Elias_the_thief & KingdomAces.

[Carbondioxide]

So if I'd

said

I'm town I'm scum... but because I

didn't say

I'm Town I'm scum?

Ooookay. My take on those on the wagon (and off it) to come - when I have more time.

[Carbondioxide]

Ok, here comes (for what it's worth) my considered analysis. I'll caveat it by saying this game is showing a glaring difference between my newbie game(s). Playing with a host of more experienced players is certainly leaving me more in the dark!

On the wagon

Let's start with those on the 'buckles wagon: BT, Scumhunter, McStab, Ranmaru, Carbondioxide, Dunhumganger, Cartographer.

We can discount BT (dead) and me (guess what Kingdom... I say I'm Town... )

Scumhunter

— personally I haven't seen anything which has set my scum-dar pinging... other than the general fence-sitting. If McStab

is

a Town 1-shot tracker and Scumhunter did stay home... I'm not sure what that tells us. If he's scum he sent Goons killing. If he's town, he's probably vanilla. 50/50 call. In hindsight post 357 expressing lots of confidence in the 'buckles wagon looks bad... but by that point 'buckles was pretty much screwed anyway so why, as scum, post to say that?

Also, he posts a

lot

. Way more than anyone else and for someone who, by their own admission 'takes a while to warm up' this seems odd and out of character.

McStab

— I voted for him early on but his claim put me (and others off). If he's scum that was smart. The 1-shot tracker thing could be a magical bluff and now he's tracked Scumhunter and reported back he must be nailed on Town, right? I dunno... something still doesn't sit quite right there. That said, if Scumhunter's a PR and McStab took a wild guess, hoping he was right... hmmm. I'm prepared to give McStab the benefit of the doubt for now.

Ranmaru

— hasn't posted for a long, long while... which, given they replaced in and hadn't had much time to post before doesn't help me a great deal with a read on them. post #283 still strikes me as odd but has otherwise posted some fairly helpful scum-reads. Again, benefit of the doubt for now.

Dunhumganger

— might just be a playing style thing but has this whole "I'm so clever" thing going on which, whilst possibly Town isn't that helpful Town... certainly not to me, as a comparative newbie. Votes along the lines of "voting x is also fine" like he's the unappointed Town spokesperson/King is just odd. I mean, most of his posts make me laugh but they're not overly helpful.

Cartographer

— has gone to Town on the analysis too, which gives me Townie-tingles. Dropping the hammer on Starbuckles, confusingly, strengthens my town-read on him. Given the deadline was looming Starbuckle's would have died anyway... so why drop the hammer and put a big scum mark on your head if you were scum... totally unnecessary, so therefore motivations more likely to be Town.

-----
So, by my own logic (above) at least one of those must be scum. At this point I haven't got a strong scum-read on any of them. If I had a gun to my head I'd order them: Scumhunter; Dunham; Ranmaru; McStab; Cartographer.

On to those not on the wagon: scooby; Hoopla; and (more glaringly by not voting at all): Elias_the_thief & KingdomAces.

Maybe this is newbiely simplistic of me but if I were scum I'd think: "Way to avoid suspicion and even omgus attention... I won't vote at all! Mwa-ha-ha-haaaa!" — that makes me look at Elias and Kingdom first:

Elias

— has gone awful quiet of late too, which is pretty unhelpful. However, recent posts pointing out Town-reads, in the absence of waving fingers of suspicion at scum-reads, strikes me as townie behaviour. Something scum tend to do is subtly get wagons rolling on the next Town player. Granted, a good way to do this might be steer wagons away from their scum-buddies but I get a townie read from it.

Kingdom

— looks fishier to me. In post #369 he says Starbuckles is the "best lynch", dangles his "intent to hammer"; posts twice subsequently

without

hammering and instead Cartographer does the deed. Why, if you think someone is the "best lynch", would you avoid dropping the hammer? Perhaps to avoid looking scummy?

Meh... even I'm not happy with that analysis. I certainly don't feel happy enough with it to vote on it. I need to do some more reading/thinking.

(Kingdom, I just saw your reply whilst I was typing all this... I'll respond in a separate post).

[Carbondioxide]

If you say you're town unprovoked and without reasoning, it's bad play and null. If when ruling out who could be scum and who can't be, if you don't subconsciously rule out yourself it implies you either are not sure of your alignment, or you are actually scum.

I'll have to take your word on "bad play". My completed game count is: 1, so I'm still learning a lot of MS-etiquette.

What I did was copy+paste the vote list from Llama's post ergo I'm in it. Like you I figured taking myself off that list would be null anyway. I'm hardly going to offer analysis of myself and say: "Actually, this CO2 bloke looks a bit dodgy... I think he's scummy." Similarly, if I analyse myself and say: "He's Town. Nailed on Town. Townie, Town-town-town." that's pretty useless too.

My point was there are six (alive) players who were on 'buckles wagon. I was trying to guess at how many scum are on there. 1-in-6; 2-in-6? 3-in-6? Who knows... what I was driving at was I think it's more likely to be a lower number as killing BT reduces the odds... smart scum would only do that if they knew there weren't that many of them on the wagon.

[Carbondioxide]

Dunham, funny as your little 'exchange' with Scumhunter was to read this morning... it'd sure help if you were to share your reasons for thinking x or y is scummy.

"Ha-ha-ha! your reasoning is rubbish!"

isn't that helpful.

"Ha-ha-ha-ha! Look at how you played in this game. Scum."

isn't either. Some considered analysis of "X did this... this is scummy because..." would be far more useful to me, not only in this game but for future games too. I'm used to playing in games where the 'scum-tells' are far more blatant and the scum players far less skilled at hiding themselves.

[Carbondioxide]

Bit of a prod-dodge post but to answer questions/concerns regarding me:

Kingdom/Ranmaru:

It was a total dumbass oversight on my part to not include Scooby and Hoopla in my analysis. Perhaps this was subconscious as, in my mind, Scooby is rather Dunham-ish (in that neither post much; both, when they do post, post with unequivocal "I'm right. X is scum. This is fact." style posts which help me very little); and Hoopla is (or was) BT-ish, in that there was some analysis there but nothing I really had a read on yet.

In hindsight I can see it looks scummy to have missed them out so I guess I'll have to wear that if y'all want to hang me for it.

At this point I'm inclined to use my vote to apply pressure to those I'm getting mild scummy reads from and that I want to hear more from so:

Vote: DunhamGanger

Kingdom, I think I've answered your 'Why didn't I discount myself from being scum' question in post #415, no?

[Carbondioxide]

[quote="In post 506, Ranmaru"]
What I want to know is why you didn't even try to correct it after. You were saying that there may have been scum off the wagon, yet you only talked about two people off of it. This feels incomplete and insincere. Why exactly did you feel there may have been scum off the wagon, CO2? Also, how is your stance on Mcstab today? Do you still believe him being a one-shot tracker? If so, why? Also, talk to me what you think about his track target and his explanation for doing so.

(Assuming you're talking about having missed my analysis on scooby and hoopla?) I didn't correct it as I didn't notice until it was pointed out. If I'm honest my analysis was pretty weak and even as I typed it I was thinking "How is this going to help?" so kinda ran out of steam.

If you meant why didn't I correct missing myself out — as has been said, I don't (and didn't) think it was necessary to discount myself. I know my allegiance and like everyone else in the game I'm trying to persuade everyone I'm Town. Whether I'm lying or not is for others to decide, not me.

As for "scum off the wagon" the way the wagon formed (after others built up and ebbed away) it didn't feel like there was a particular push (which I would have attributed to scum) or indeed any particular bandwagon jumping. In all it felt a bit like everyone was "Meh... dunno... this wagon will do." for lack of alternatives. That made me think that scum were pretty happy with letting things take their course, without having to do any pushing or vote switching themselves.

Lastly, McStabb our '1-shot-tracker-honest' — I'm leaning towards scummy on him. The 1-shot thing and choosing, in my opinion, a not-so-great target (scumhunter may have been on my list, but not top of it) it just all seems too convenient. He's now (as far as PR goes) useless to the Town but supposedly utterly vindicated and 100% Town. If he's scum you could put a bow on it — it's just too perfect.

However, I can understand why he'd use his 1-shotness on night 1... if I had a 1-shot PR I'd be tempted to use it right away (it's kinda like a new toy, yet to be unwrapped, no?) especially as he was made to claim (better unwrap that toy before you die)... so that's what's confusing my slightly-scummy-but-could-be-Town read on him.

As for my vote on Dunham, it was meant to pressure him into bringing more to the table for the Town. Since my vote he has posted once... with nine words (oh and a rolly-eye face). It's this kinda insightful, helpful contribution that almost makes me want to lynch him whether he's Town or not!

[Carbondioxide]

To apply this logic to the game we're playing now: If you're town, then it's highly likely scum were under little to no pressure throughout the majority of D1, which means we should expect players off the wagon or at the base of the lynch wagon (away from the riskier/more proactive votes). So, looking at our D1 wagon:

Vote Count

Starbuckles

(7) -

BT

,

Scumhunter, McStab

,

Ranmaru

, Carbondioxide,

Dunhumganger

, Cartographer

Scumhunter

(1) - scooby
Ranmaru (1) -

Hoopla

Not Voting (3) - Elias_the_thief,

Starbuckles

, KingdomAces

Woah.

This is a whole logic/analysis leap that's come out of nowhere.

BT, Scumhunter, McStab and Ranmaru are all 'confirmed town-green'?

Confirming yourself and Starbuckles (surely the only 100% Town confirmation) I understand. But Dunham's green too... meaning he and Ranmaru, even though by your analysis, they voted before

and

after me respectively... I'm still scum? I just don't get that. I mean, I've already established that there are players in this game on a level way, way above mine... but WTF? Have I missed something?

Carbon, do you think it is more likely to find scum on or off the wagon?

At this stage I really have no idea. I'm trying to apply some logic/analysis to it though, to narrow things down for my own vote if nothing else.

Mathematically (discounting those already dead) it's (6 on the wagon; 6 off; assume at least 2 scum) the chances are even there's at least one scummer on the wagon.

If we take McStab at his word (which would seem to clear both him and Scumhunter) that reduces those on the wagon to three (I'll discount myself, natch). So then that's three on, four off — tipping the odds more in favour of there being scum off the wagon. Given my earlier analysis of things like scum-kills (BT) reducing the size of the wagon that, to me, hints at few (if any) scum on the wagon, so I'm definitely thinking more scum

off

the wagon at this stage.

So that's:
Kingdom; Elias; Scooby; Hoopla — as my 'off the wagon' suspects (in a vague order of preference... I'm getting Townie-vibes from hoopla)
Dunham; & Ranmaru — lead 'on the wagon' suspects

TBC: McStab & Scumhunter — benefit of the doubt for now.

I found July's analysis of robnnva/Dunham interesting. With deadline some way off, I'm going to leave my vote where it is for now (on Dunham) as I still want more than 'hilarious' gags/abuse as a contribution. If he's scum lynching him is a good thing; if he's Town lynching him wouldn't cost us a great deal of insight!

[Carbondioxide]

I am now willing to lynch Carbon Dioxide.

Unvote, Vote: Carbon Dioxide

.

Hint: What you've missed is "basic reading comprehension." Also "being town."

Thanks for yet more sparkling insight.

I'm tempted to paraphrase you:

How is this obvscum still alive?

Questions seem to help: I "missed basic reading comprehension" — ok, be specific. What did I miss, by whom and where? Given I also "missed being Town" I can assume you've read it... or are very learned in it, given you're 'teaching' it. Perhaps I should be more 'obvtown' and post once every 48 hours-ish... but be sure not to post more than ten words at a time?

I'm not actually that nailed on to vote to lynch you — I. Just. Want. More. Input. From. You.

If two posts amounting to fewer than 20 words is the best you can muster... tell me, why

shouldn't

we lynch you? Other than being 'obvtown' what exactly is it you bring to the table?

[Carbondioxide]

Ranmaru, the short answer to most of your questions is: My #414 analysis was crap. It was wishy-washy and half-baked and largely because I didn't have a clue, so was feeling rather demotivated. I'm more confident in my #509 analysis — but wouldn't put myself in the Poirot bracket just yet.

I'll try and answer more of your questions directly (below — ignoring scooby's "succinct is Town") but I'm wary of falling into a trap you appear to be setting in that if I doth

protest

explain too much that makes me scummy; or "trying to appear town". You asked, so I'll do my best to answer on the assumption that town helps town find scum.

Why do you list Elias as a suspect off the wagon (before Hoopla and Scooby) yet read him as town here?
Why didn't you vote for pressure here?
Also, why is Scumhunter first in your 'gun' lineup, yet later on you have him off the 'wagon' suspects.

Elias was in because I was trying to analyse

every

player (though accidentally missing out scooby and hoopla) — it wasn't so much that Elias was a "suspect" more than I was trying to get into the mindset of being 'suspicious' of everyone.

I didn't vote because I didn't feel happy with any of my analysis. Voting, for me, is usually because I want to lynch someone... or to put pressure on them. At that point if I'd voted it would have been barely more than an RVS. I didn't have a clue who to vote for, so didn't vote.

As for Scumhunter, at that point I was suspicious of him but then I was trying to be suspicious of everyone... of all the '50/50 meh, I'm terrible at this' reads I had, he was maybe 51/49, hence heading the queue.

Given my comments above, I will draw your attention to this part of my post:

Meh... even I'm not happy with that analysis. I certainly don't feel happy enough with it to vote on it. I need to do some more reading/thinking.

...you state later on that you were getting Town Vibes from Hoopla. How and why (and when exactly) did you get these vibes? Quote/link please.

It's more a gut feel. It is just "vibes" after all... I didn't say "I've seen Hoopla's 'I'm a Townie' tattoo".

Since the early stages (when I found her silence and self vote frustrating and confusing) I've found her play useful which to me says "Pro-Town". Asking questions; guessing at the set-up; gathering information all that stuff strikes me as pro-Town.

Since he used his shot, would you be willing to vote him ToDay, since you are still leaning Scum on him?
How are you reading me currently?
Also, have you ever done wagon analysis before? If not, why have you started doing so this game, and how does it help you?

"Willing to"? That would depend on the circumstances. If I had the swing vote and one of my stronger Town reads was the alternative, sure. Would I be eager to lynch him? Notsomuch — I have three or four others ahead of him in that queue.

As for you, I'm getting mild scum vibes from you. Whilst your analysis is kinda useful; and you (like Hoopla) ask questions, you seem overly keen to see 'obvscum' where there is, at best, 'maybe-kinda-scum...ish'.

As for wagon analysis, I would think by now it's obvious I've never done it before. I'd like to think I'm getting better, even through the process of this game but only time will tell! I've started doing it in this game as I feel I need to get my own thoughts, reads and lynch-targets in order as I'm getting the impression there are some mighty clever and experienced players in this game and I'm feeling a) a little out of my depth and b) that I may be lead down a mislynch path by said experienced player(s).

Red, this is a weird reaction. Where exactly did you see that she called you scum, and for what reason?
Bold, why is Elias listed here when he is your town read? (Refer to above quote)

If it's "weird" it's because I'm confused/frustrated. In my head Dunham is possibly scummy; you too... yet for Hoopla they're "cleared" in green and I'm not. Maybe it's a leap from "not cleared = scum" but it's not a big leap when there are only five non-green names.

I'm trying to learn and playing with more experienced players is definitely helping but when there are, what appear to me, as big logic leaps of: "X, Y and Z are cleared — not sure about A, B and C." it makes me feel like I'm trying to play Hungry Hippos in a room full of chess Grand Masters.

As for changing my read on Elias... this is basically because my #414 was crap. His elevation from 'mild town' to 'mild scum' has more to do with my strengthening town vibes from others than strengthening scum vibes from him.

[Carbondioxide]

Nowhere does she ever call you scum. Quit playing the "I'm a dumb noob" card.

I covered this in post #541. No, she never directly called me scum but narrowing me to a shortlist of five (when there are, it's widely agreed, at least two scum) ain't far off.

As for "dumb noob" I honestly feel a bit like it in this game. I'll try not to make such a thing of it (it's annoys me when others do) so fair enough.

(I'll discount myself, natch)

Forced.

Oh do keep up. This was with tongue firmly planted in cheek, not "forced". I got labelled as scum earlier for not explicitly discounting myself from being scum. This was an aside aimed at that.

Kingdom; Elias; Scooby; Hoopla — as my 'off the wagon' suspects (in a vague order of preference... I'm getting Townie-vibes from hoopla)

Immediately sucks up to the more experienced player using the same methodology he just questioned.

Saying I'm getting townie-vibes is sucking up? M'kay. I guess I'm in good company if calling someone townie is sucking up:

Stop voting McStab

I don't like this KA wagon.

[Carbondioxide]

1.

You have Elias second in a line up of four. Yet the thing that reads off to me is that you have Scooby right after him, who is null to you. Keeping in mind that Elias is a town read to you, so why are you putting him ahead of Scooby?

2.

Underlined, we are way past RVS. You could have voted at that point, yet you didn't. Hmm, can you link me your first game?

3.

Yet you stated in Post #497 that you didn't get a read yet. Why didn't you state Hoopla's 'townie vibes' from D1 there?

4.

Bold, can you clarify this? How is this a scumtell?

5.

Underlined, how does that work? Why didn't you mention that 'a strengthening of town vibes' made Elias scummier to you? Who exactly felt townier [than Elias] to you, and why?

1.

You've either totally missed my point, or are deliberately trying to misrepresent what I said. Elias was a vague town read to me (very much not nailed on) back in my self-confessed crap-analysis post #414. In the #521 analysis, which I feel a little more confident in, I re-read Elias as mildly scummy, hence being is 2-of-4 in the list of "off wagon" suspects ahead of the 'null-ish' scooby.

2.

I know we're past RVS, I meant a vote based on my #414 analysis would have been "little more than RVS" as in an utterly random vote/guess. My first game: https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=83&t=23242 I was Town and dead D1!

3.

As it's already been put more succinctly than I could manage:

'D1 Hoopla is very different to D2 Hoopla'

hence the change in my read of her.

4.

It feels like you're trying to pick holes in everything: grammar, syntax etc. and trying to stick a 'Scum' badge on it. This, to me, feels like scum trying to set wagons rolling.

5.

I did. My #521 mentioned I'd put both the off and on wagon list in a vague Scum - Town order, with my read on Hoopla getting more townie. As mentioned above, scooby being null puts him behind Elias in my mind.

Hope that helps. It does feel kinda like you're tunneling me... but you haven't voted for me so I'll put it down to genuine interest in my answers + paranoia on my part.

[Carbondioxide]

There is a huge, enormous difference between saying a wagon is no good and saying someone is giving you "townie vibes." I'll leave you to discern the difference. Oh wait, you're the one who made the awful juxtaposition in the first place. Who am I voting for again?

Oh, good.

I think I got the difference. I do welcome the (slightly) longer posts from you. Welcome to the game.

[Carbondioxide]

Hmm... I'm suspicious of all these vote 'tie-rs' — those that have voted to make it a three-way tie for the lynch: (Scumhunter, McStab, Kingdom). Why do that so close to deadline? Sure, it may just be stubborn Town "This guy is scum, we should lynch

him

." but it could also be a punt from scum to try and save themselves and/or their scum-buddy.

Of the three tie-rs, two are in the shake-up for the lynch (Kingdom and McStab). It'd be a risky tactic for scum to try that, especially with one person still to vote and Dunham with, possibly, a swing vote if he moves his vote. But still, a no lynch due to a tie is better for scum than a scum lynch... especially if there are other ramifications for them if there's a scum flip.

It hasn't changed things dramatically for me (I already had my suspicions about Kingdom, less so McStab) so it has made the latter look scummier in my eyes.

[Carbondioxide]

I should clarify... I may be totally barking up the wrong tree here but consider this notice of intent to switch my vote (should I feel it necessary). I'd rather lynch Kingdom or McStab (in that order) than have a no lynch tie.

[Carbondioxide]

Just a question. You were asking others if they would place their vote on DunHam, can you explain why you won't be doing this yourself? If it's a numbers thing, can you map that out?

This.

If Dunham switches to you and you then switch to Kingdom we end up with a 4-4 tie between you and Kingdom.

[Carbondioxide]

Ok. My vote is still on Dunham. I think he's scummy but I can see how, even if he flips scum, lynching him may not bring additional info.

I wavered between Kingdom and McStab as those I'd also be willing to lynch. PST is -7 to my local time, so I'll be sure to try and log-on around that time and ensure there isn't a no-lynch tie.

I'd be interested to hear from those who are anti KA/McStab wagons:

why

. KA seems mildly scummier to me; but I can see how (even if he flips town) lynching McStab brings extra info.

[Carbondioxide]

July/Ranmaru: If you want a Dunham lynch to go through, by all means vote him. If both of you switched to him it'd be 4-4 and I would vote him over Kingdom.

Nope. I make the current vote count:

KingdomAces (4) - SnakePlissken, Hoopla, Scumhunter, McStab
McStab (4) - Ranmaru, Elias_the_thief, KingdomAces, July
Dunhamganger (1) - Carbondioxide
Elias_the_thief (1) - Dunhamganger

Currently heading for a NL and also looks like Dunham, Snake (if he reappears again in time) and I may have the swing vote(s) - hence my previous post/question.

[Carbondioxide]

Well. A pleasant surprise that McStab actually turned out to be a scum tracker.

In my mind this puts a shade more Townie-ness on Scumhunter. Tracking and outing him as Town would be a heck of a risk as your scum-buddy. A scum-flip from either basically hands the town another scum kill on a plate. It's possible they took that punt — or maybe McStab took it 'al solo' and his scum-chums are already cursing his corpse — but I think it's more likely Scumhunter's Town; & McStab did track him. Something that did cross my mind is that the result McStab got may not necessarily have been "stayed in"... perhaps in some sort of cloak and dagger, nudge-nudge, "I know you're a PR" way did McStab out Scumhunter as Town, thereby 'saving' a Town PR, to make himself look even more Town in SH's eyes. Meh... unlikely, but possible. McStab would only

know

a night action from SH was Town aligned if he already knew who all the Scum are (which he did/does). In which case, if SH does have a PR you'd have thought the scum would have night killed him... so I guess we can rule that in the very, very unlikely pile.

So, questions arising from the lynch:

Ugh, McStab is so not the play. But I'm not voting on a wagon with Scumhunter and McStab.

Vote: McStab

I'm going to be at work when deadline passes here. Bombs away.

Dunham, you wanna talk us through the above? Lots of hand wringing "Oh I don't want to, but I have to..." before you L-1 McStab... who then flips scum. Not your finest hour?

This is dumb.

I won't be here when deadline hits, so I'm just gonna change now. We can't afford to no-lynch - honestly, any lynch is better than no-lynch, even though I don't agree with this one. But in the event McStab flips town, we can at least solidify Scumhunter being town and also pull back influence tomorrow from the numpties leading this wagon today.

VOTE: McStab

Sorry friend.

Same for you Hoopla. A "woe is me" vote... for someone who turns out to be scum? Hoopla-scum would throw a whole new light on that "solidify Scumhunter being town" line too. Hmm...

Oh for goodness sake, one of the scummiest hammers ever. I should know I'm a pass master at them.

Snake? Turns out it was a hammer of scum, rather than a scummy hammer. What made you think it was a scummy hammer and how are you reading those players now? And why didn't you vote?

Suspect there'll be questions for me, given I didn't vote for McStab — so fire away.

[Carbondioxide]

For my own analysis (and in the hope it might prove moderately helpful/time-saving for others) here's my analysis of McStab's voting:

(my counting may be a little off, so if anyone's so inclined, do check!):

Voted for:

DunhamGanger: 3 times
Ranmaru: 3
July: 2
Carbondioxide: 1
Hoopla: 1
Starbuckles: 1
Kingdom: 1

Never voted for: Elias; (BT); Scumhunter; or Snake.

This looks good for Dunham & Ranmaru = Town.

Where his vote was at each count - Day One:

Ranmaru: 6
Hoopla: 3
July: 2
Starbuckles: 2
Carbondioxide: 1

An RVS on me early on; was 3rd on the Starbuckles wagon-o'death; parked vote on Ranmaru would lend more strength to Ranmaru-Town case from above... but, crucially, Ranmaru was never in any real danger of being lynched — likewise Hoopla for whom McStab was voting when he was wagon leader before his 'claim'.

Where his vote was at each count - Day Two:

Dunham: 6
Ranmaru: 2
Kingdom: 1

Seems he really didn't like Ranmaru huh? Most of his Day Two efforts were focused on Dunham though; the odd flirtation with voting for Ran and KA (mostly in attempts to save himself); before a last-gasp 'kill Dunham, not me' which, if it hadn't been for his earlier votes might make me think "trying to clear his scum buddy as a last hurrah?" — but I think this gives Dunham a strong Townie-whiff.

Not voting for Scumhunter I can understand, given he cleared him as Town. Interesting he

never

voted for Elias or Snake though...

[Carbondioxide]

Ok. Left in the game we have (in the order of Llama's first post list):

Elias_the_thief
Hoopla
Scumhunter
SnakePlissken/scooby
KingdomAces

Carbondioxide

Dunhamganger
Ranmaru

Green — I'm clearing for now, as per my earlier posts on McStab's votes. I'm taking myself out as I can't see me 'doing a Hoopla' and voting for myself. For

Kingdom's sake

the removal of all doubt, yes this means I'm saying I'm Town.

I'm suspicious of Elias & snake/scooby — as McStab

never

voted for them... not once. In a twelve player game everyone else got a vote from him at least once — except them.

Elias

has the rather strong card of having voted to lynch McStab and quite early in the wagon too. Despite bronchitis, he was around late enough in the wagon to have jumped off 'to save his scum buddy' but didn't. A heavy weight in the "Elias Town" column.

That leaves Hoopla, Scumhunter, SnakePlissken/scooby and KingdomAces.

Kingdom

was another one on the McStab wagon who declined the chance late to jump off. The same rationale should clear

Hoopla

, who dropped the hammer on McStab but that whole thing still sits uncomfortably with me. He (McStab) led the vote, 3 clear of his nearest rival, with the deadline looming to seal a majority lynch anyway. No, despite hammering scum Hoopla's still not clearly Town in my mind.

Snake/scooby

and

Scumhunter

were (like me, to be fair) not on the McStab wagon. Snake has taken up Scooby's mantle of fairly minimal posts so not much to read from but Snake's still pursuing Kingdom, without much say on why. Scumhunter's #653 looks forced to me and #581, in hindsight looks downright bad... but would scum really be that obvious?

VOTE: SnakePlissken

Time for a little more talkin' Snake — or you're going to remain my #1 lynch candidate.

[Carbondioxide]

I make the vote count:

Hoopla (3) - Elias_the_thief; Ranmaru; Dunham
SnakePlissken (2) - KingdomAces; CO2

Not voting yet: Hoopla, Scumhunter, Snake.

Deadline is still 10 days away but can't say I'd be unhappy to see either of those two lynched. At the moment my priority list would be: Snake, Hoopla, Scumhunter... interestingly the three that have yet to vote.

Scumhunter's been prodded so perhaps he's just forgotten or V/LA. Hoopla's been around but, as has been pointed out mostly to defend herself rather than help the scum hunt. Snake, despite my request he at least participate more has barely posted more than a prod-dodge since he started.

Ranmaru: I take your earlier point about

when

McStab voted as much as who for (i.e. intent to lynch or smokescreen) but I voted for the world and his wife on D1 so I'm reluctant to read too much into McStab dropping his push on Hoopla. What's your take on Snake? Lurking scum or too-busy Townie? And what do you make of Scumhunter now, given his earlier "I never warm up into a game until after D1..." and now he's prodded?

[Carbondioxide]

What do you think of my case on Hoopla?

I think you're reading a little too much into a smiley in you #681. Bear in mind that that vote (Hoopla's, here) was unvoting herself and after a lot of hoopla (no pun intended) about that and what it meant. I'm unclear how Valila's response to McStab (which you mention) plays into it.

I get that Hoopla jumping off McStab's wagon is suspect, particularly as the reason for that amounted to "not really feeling it". Also her labeling him as Town despite the fact she was, at the time, one of the targets he (McStab) was pushing to be lynched in his stead. That does smack, to me, of supreme confidence from Hoopla that McStab's attacks on her were easily shrugged off.

At this point I wouldn't lose much sleep if Hoopla was next to be lynched. I'd happily switch my vote to her if it was required — not sure it is at this stage though.

Otherwise I'm struggling with some of what you said. An explanation/answers to the below would help:

How do:

A)

I take Snake as a very bad flaky townie. Mostly due to Scooby. I read around his games and they seem mostly similar, yet he posts slightly more content.

... and...

B)

Scooby straight up attacking him all D1.

Go together? Do you think scooby was active (attacking all D1) or inactive? And how does that link to his alignment? Also:

1)

Scumhunter, I give slight town points due to him just not wanting a lynch on Mcstab at all instead of just bussing for towncred.

and

2)

'but Hoopla's scum for saying McStab was Town.' work in tandem?

I feel he

{Snake}

was put in a comfortable position by Hoopla (Keep your vote where it is) and it gave him the chance to say "Sure, I like it there without giving a reason to do so in the first place".

Given his vote was on Kingdom, and you think Hoopla's scum, does that clear Kingdom?

I want you to re-evaluate your stance on DumHammer though, as I do think he is very likely to be scum with Mcstab along with Hoopla.

I was happy to lynch Dunham on D2... but McStab voted for him

a lot

. Yes the "kill him not me" at the end may have been the dying words of scum trying to help their scum-team but if so that's a heck of a risk to take. Assuming he did use his 1-shot track already his worth to the scum-team was no more than any other team member. Why out a previously uncovered team-mate?

[Carbondioxide]

I OK if we think we should do a mass claim today. I would vote for Hoopla, but I'm a bit nervous of her not being scum as I'm not convinced and I don't want me placing her at L-1 and some opportunistic scum hammering or "oops hammering"

Seriously? You've got two votes on you; and a bunch of people waiting for you to defend yourself... and that's it? Your 'defence' is:

"I could vote Hoopla."

This makes me

more

inclined to lynch you. At least Hoopla contributes — even if it may all be some elaborate scum-screen.

Given two of the people I feel are most likely to flip scum at this point (you and Hoopla) have yet to vote I'm not that happy with the influence possible scum could have on the vote. However, given the two of you are 1 & 2 in the vote, it's interesting neither of you are keen to vote — even to save yourself it seems.

I get that there's no rush. Deadline is still a way off, so I'm not saying "Vote. Vote NOW." but if not Hoopla, then who? A contribution other than a list of your diary dates and why you're

not

contributing would be welcome.

[Carbondioxide]

I've never been involved in a mass claim before so interested to see how this works. With 8 alive and at least 1 more scum to find I'm unclear how a mass claim today helps the Town. Let's say everyone claims VT - we know someone's (or more) lying but who? Hasn't everyone kinda 'soft claimed' Town throughout anyway (kinda the point of the game).

I understand how the order is crucial. Hoopla's already gone; happy with that. Think it should be Snake/Dunham next - not especially fussy which order they go in (should I be?); then I think 4th onwards doesn't matter too much.

I can see one BIG upside for scum in a mass claim. If a PR honestly outs themselves - if there were two scum left, PR(s) get taken out and potentially we're not much the wiser n who the scum are. Can't see how that improves the Town's chances much.

[Carbondioxide]

Happy to go next if that's what the majority want. Ranmaru doesn't; Dunham does. I think it should be Scumhunter & Elias next but then I'm still confused as to how this helps. Snake and Dunham both claimed Town - the latter a PR. So? I doubt we were expecting a handwringing "Ok. OK! You got me! I can't take the pressure - I'm scum!"

[Carbondioxide]

Happy to popcorn if that's what's agreed. Elias next then?

Meanwhile, found this interesting:

I'll reevaluate my read on Dunham when everyone else posts their opinions. This is not me just being obtuse, I actually have a reason.

What is the reason? Is this a soft-claim of a PR? KA, your currently posted position on Dunham is that he's Town. The only reason I can think you'd want to hold back your re-evaluation is if you thought he was scum and wanted to see who/if anyone protected him by calling him Town. Given YOU think he's Town, what reason is there to delay your re-evaluation?

The only people who stand to gain from not claiming once a massclaim starts are scum.

I just don't see how that's true. If we assume all scum will fake-claim and all Town will truthfully claim — then scum have a lot to gain by Town PRs sticking a big target on their heads... don't they?

[Carbondioxide]

Elias, if we're continuing the popcorn mass-claim, and I've got this right, you need to call who's next.

[Carbondioxide]

Carbon and Kingdom are the only ones left to claim right? I don't think it matters too much at this time lets just get done with the claiming so we can move on to what it means.

Fine by me. My first mass-claim so didn't want to break protocol.

I'm Vanilla Town.

[Carbondioxide]

This whole set-up talk is confusing. I mean this:

So you're saying a 1 Doc + VTs + 1-shot Mafia tracker is a pretty likely set-up here?

Uh... wouldn't that mean it was game over already? The Mafia tracker's dead...

I have to say Ran, your clinging to the idea of Dunham-scum looks pretty desperate. If he is scum is it just him left? Or do you still think there's three scum? McStab, Dunham + AN Other?

In which case, 3 scum vs. 1 Doc & 8 VTs... seems pretty tough on the Town, no? So, do you think someone's lying about having a Town PR?

One thing I have thought of, with your tunnel-vision on Dunham-scum... are you a Cop? As Scumhunter has said, if you are out yourself for heaven's sake. You claim and say: "Ok, I'm Cop. Dunham's definitely scum." — we lynch Dunham. If he's not scum guess who gets the rope next?

If he is, yes, you've got the cross-hairs on you — bang-bang, you're dead overnight. But then we've got six left alive and, assuming there is a third scum after McStab & Dunham, the five remaining VTs have a pretty good chance of finding them.

If, by hiding for one more night, you're thinking "I'll get one more investigation and find the second remaining scum,

then

out myself." that seems like a good idea on the face of it... but without you outing yourself we're not going to lynch a claimed nurse, so chances are we'll mislynch tonight; the scum kill one more (possibly you and your information dies with you) and we're left with six alive and (up to) two scum. Yes, if you flip Cop it ain't looking good for Dunham but we lynch him whilst losing another Townie, which leaves 1 scum v 4 Townies. 1 v 6 is better odds for a Town win.

[Carbondioxide]

Well that (#799) doesn't look good for you, does it Snake?

With 4 days 'til deadline I make the count:

SnakePlissken (3) - KingdomAces, Carbondioxide, Hoopla
Hoopla (1) - Elias_the_thief
Kingdom (1) - Ranmaru

Dunham, Scumhunter and Snake himself still to vote.

I'm happy with my vote where it is for now. Dunham, SH — who're you ready to lynch? Snake — you wanna make any last pleas or cases against your accusers, assuming you don't have a pressing meeting with George Clooney/a bowel movement?

[Carbondioxide]

Snake... dude. You're going to have to do better than: "It's WIFOM" and "Erm OK" if you want people (me, certainly) not to vote for you.

The way I see it, there are two main ways to go about this:

1) Directly answer and challenge the case(s) against you i.e. "Well that's rubbish because..." etc.
2) Present a more scummy/vote-worthy candidate for the lynch instead and why people should vote them instead of you

Better yet, do both. Either way my vote is so parked on you it'll have grass growing through the hubcaps shortly.

[Carbondioxide]

Edit: Either

way

that.

[Carbondioxide]

Kingdom - you wanna talk me through the Traitor thing? I've never played in a game with one so only know what I just read in the Wiki after you brought it up. Why would there be a Traitor (sounds rather complex in what, up to know, seems a rather basic set-up). If there was one why does it HAVE to be Hoopla? Seems an odd quasi-scummy push on her by you.

Ran - given your case/push on Dunham (now confirmed as telling the truth); his vote on you etc. your posts today seem rather odd. You're still talking about all the Dunham actions and Kingdom linking to/writing off his 'scummy actions' etc. as if his (Dunham's) alignment is in doubt. It's not. From what you wrote you're voting Kingdom as Dunham distanced him? That doesn't make sense.

[Carbondioxide]

In case that bit about Hoopla in my last post doesn't make sense: I meant you (Kingdom) are making a semi-scum call on Hoopla ("she could be a Traitor") without openly saying she's scum or voting her, indeed you said your read of her hasn't changed? Also:

There's no scum motivation behind saying one townsperson is likely scum if another townsperson flips scum.

That doesn't make sense. Couldn't scum say the above as a form of bussing? I.e. "if you get my buddy HIS buddy is x... not me!"

[Carbondioxide]

I'm quite LA at the moment - half-term for kids here in UK.

Anyway: Kingdom - why is what Hoopla said = traitor & steering the NKill? Whereas Ran's "you'll soak up the NK" to Dunham not the same/worse? What do you think the Traitor's wincon would be in this game?

This traitor thing just seems an odd curveball from you at this stage. Almost pre-seeding the next mislynch?

Elias - given you thought Snake was a lurker lynch... he didn't defend himself or help the Town or scum-hunt. Him being Town aside, he's not a great loss.

Given your comments on Hoopla and KA's - I'm unclear why neither of you are pushing for a lynch on her?

[Carbondioxide]

I think its utterly ridiculous that neither Hoopla or Scumhunter were serious considerations for the lynch yesterday. I mean, I admit calling Snake a lurker lynch was a bit of an exaggeration, but seriously people. Since when can two players with strong connections to a flipped scum BOTH make it through a day no problem? In conclusion, I'm gonna do a reread this weekend but I believe the only course of action is lynching either Hoopla or Scumhunter. Preferably Hoopla, because he's scum and all.

No me gusta this.

This is annoying from both of you from my point of view.

Elias: if that's your feeling where's your vote and why isn't it down already?

You might want to rehash those "strong links" again in your re-read post. Scumhunter's scum as McStab cleared him? Hoopla's link to him seemed pretty tenuous too, ammounting to 'he pushed her D1... for a bit... then kinda didn't.' Its hardly a horse's head in the bed is it? Genuine question - I mean, are you saying that's enough to lynch Hoopla? I get we're being careful of L-2 but neither of your suggested lynches have a vote yet. Why so cautious?

Scumhunter: WTF? You don't like it... in Spanish. Are you channeling Dunham's more obtuse side? You really have nothing else to contribute? What're you saying? Elias is scum? Hoopla is Town? Both? Neither?

Come on people. Six alive = 4 v 2 at worst surely. Probably 5 v 1. Let's not let scum win because half the Town can't be bothered.

[Carbondioxide]

Here is why it is scummy: Six alive, and if we mislynch today, it would be 4 alive tommorow (if there is a night kill). Most likely there would be 1 scum at the most, and if there is a traitor, then the traitor can just leave a vote out for the scum to hammer, and it's OVER. See, Kingdom didn't think of that. If he was really town, he would have been trying to lynch his traitor read BEFORE tommorow, yet instead he would rather just 'forget it'.

We are lynching Kingdom Today.

*BUZZER* unless my maths is shocking 4 alive = THREE votes required for a lynch, not two (traitor + scum) as you suggest. Why would you make a rather elementary mistake like that? Hmmm...

[Carbondioxide]

I'm not sure any of this is making things clearer for me. I know I'm Town. I think it's highly likely there's one scum left. More than 2 scum (total) seems unlikely. Traitor-whatever is possible but trying to second guess myself/the set-up won't help.

So, in my order of most to least scummy:

Ranmaru > Hoopla > KingdomAces > Elias_the_thief > Scumhunter.

Ranmaru:

Just seems to be trying way too hard. I previously cleared him because McStab-scum voted him so often... but as I said in #667 he (McStab) only did this when Ranmaru was in little/no danger of being lynched.

Hoopla:/

Hammered McStab but the D1 link to him is a hint at scummy distancing.

Kingdom:

Still carries cred for refusing to bail on the McStab wagon when given ample opportunity and multiple other targets. This 'traitor' stuff has clouded my Town-read on him though.

Elias:

As above with Kingdom and the McStab-wagon. However, has pretty much lurked through the whole game, even since he got narky about Snake being 'lurker-lynched'. Not helpful.

Scumhunter:

Get's my "most Townie" card... if nothing else because I just don't buy the 'McStab-scum would take the punt on tracking his buddy'. If they did that as a high-risk gamble, heck... they almost deserve to win.

====

Questions:

Hoopla

: you said:

leaning towards a Kingdom lynch though.

Why? Why didn't Kingdom-scum bail on the McStab wagon when there was ample opportunity to and multiple other mislynch targets?

Elias:

Good luck with the lab stuff n'all but (if you're Town) we need your re-read analysis.

Ranmaru:

What is #877 about? Are you pushing for a Scumhunter wagon now? I thought you were all over Kingdom? Which is it? And how does it fit with #833? How many non-Town players do you think there are left? What's

your

lynch running-order? Your weird miscalculation in #859 got my spidey-sense tingling too. How could a supposed traitor leave a "vote out there to hammer" unless you know how many scum are left?

[Carbondioxide]

What that is about, is that we are lynching Scumhunter today. My lynch order:

Scumhunter > Kingdom.

When/why the change from Kingdom as #1?

[Carbondioxide]

I also want you to tell me, why you are ignoring that Scumhunter has also lurked through the game. Tell me your thoughts on that, and on my case on him.

If we were lynching lurkers on principal we'd already have lost most of the players! Even you're a replacement in!

I think your case is 'OK' the pieces fit but that doesn't mean the picture is of scum.

[Carbondioxide]

Soft claimed to Scooby while

actually being a VT

. This shows he wanted to survive, why survive over a possible PR?

Uh-oh. Just spotted this (red above). Looks like you just confirmed SH

is

VT. How'd you know that Ran... unless? You're saying he's scum no? Not "actually a VT". Whoops.

You just took a clear outright lead in my lynch-line-up.

VOTE: Ranmaru

[Carbondioxide]

Soft claimed to Scooby while

actually being a VT

. This shows he wanted to survive, why survive over a possible PR?

Uh-oh. Just spotted this (red above). Looks like you just confirmed SH

is

VT. How'd you know that Ran... unless? You're saying he's scum no? Not "actually a VT". Whoops.

You just took a clear outright lead in my lynch-line-up.

VOTE: Ranmaru

Carbon, you have to read more carefully. Scumhunter already claimed VT. I especially quoted him claiming so in the post that was linked in the summary. Why does it seem you try to misrep me this whole game? (Also, there is no reason to soft claim as VT, consider that)

Ok, so Scumhunter claims VT. You think he's scum... therefore saying SH is "actually being a VT" isn't saying he's scum. It's semantics but I think this is a slip. You're not saying "He soft claimed a PR, then wants us to believe he's VT" you're saying "He soft claimed PR but

IS

VT". A subtle but important difference.

If, as you say, SH is scum are you saying McStab faked a read on him (and Tracked someone else?) or genuinely did Track his scum-buddy, just for kicks and giggles?

If it's the former, his first push (post his Track) was on Dunham. Why do you think this was and was it related to the Track he did/didn't perform?

[Carbondioxide]

the scum would use the one shot to the best of their team's cause

does not add up with, he may have tracked SH for giggles. I get that they could have cooked up the gambit to track AN Other and lie about tracking SH. But, as you say, McStab was under pressure from D1; saved himself with his fake claim... then gets lynched. Why risk forging such a strong link between scum-buddies with a player who's under D1 lynch-pressure? It's all WIFOM but I just cannot compute this in my head. If I were scum would I want a buddy that almost got the rope to make a strong link to me? Would I bus him? Would I do neither and hope no-one noticed... I dunno. I get that they

could

have played the faking plan you laid out... but I just don't buy it. Sorry.

As for soft-claiming to save himself... people do that all the time. Is it good Townie play, not really. Does that make him scum? No. In my mind Dunham wasn't a very 'good Townie' but he was a PR. If I was under pressure myself would I do something to get someone lynched instead of me? Probably. SH had a scum-read of Starbuckles from pretty early on — even voted them in RVS. More WIFOM - but it's hardly like he chose to fling someone

any

one on the pyre instead of him as you're implying. As Town would I push to lynch someone I had a scum read on to save myself? You bet. As scum, would I trump up a scum read to get Town lynched instead of me? Absolutely.

As for #911... forgive me if I'm being a little slow here but... let's say Kingdom is a traitor. Why does that mean he's trying to signal that to SH exclusively? Why not Hoopla? Or you? Or me?

[Carbondioxide]

Simple, I stated why. They would do so, so that people would just write Scumhunter off. High risk, High reward. You just laughed it off but you can't just ignore that possibility.

I haven't "laughed it off" I'm just saying I find it unlikely. That doesn't mean impossible just less likely.

Really now? I thought this was your second game? Just think. He soft claimed to save his own life, and then got tracked instead of night killed. Doesn't that seem fishy to you?

Not really, no. This may be my second game on MS but it's not my first game of mafia. SH's softclaim = he got tracked, that makes sense. Don't forget that scum killed BT, the Doctor, first night instead. Didn't turn out too badly for them, did it?

he only wants his scum buddies to notice his signal. (Because if others noticed it, he could be lynched)

So you're saying his subtle, sneaky way to reveal he was a Traitor - but just somthe scum noticed, mind... was to talk openly about the idea there might be a Traitor. Wow. I'm glad you pointed that out I almost missed it, it was so subtle. Though I'm Town so it clearly wasn't meant for me.

[Carbondioxide]

The reads I have on the five people left in the game are town, very likely town, probably town, town for the moment, and null. Why wouldn't I be voting my null read at this point?

Whom is which. Unless you have a very good reason for not pinning names to those reads I'm marking this down as very anti-town behaviour.

[Carbondioxide]

Two days to go and four players tied on a vote each.

Elias, Scumhunter

you need to get votes down - pronto.

I think we should lynch Ranmaru. If not, then Hoopla. None of the to-and-fro of the past few days has swayed from this.

[Carbondioxide]

I want to know what exactly you got from our back and forth.

In a nutshell? I got:

"I'm right, I'm right... la-la-la-la-la! Not listening to you! I'm riiiiight!"

Seriously. You keep banging on the door like a high pressure salesman. You're accusing people of not being open to the possibility that you're right but when they state the reasons they think something else you use that as a stick to bang on the door again. Like this:

@

Carbon

:

Ok, then it's possible. It's not unlikely.

Everything is

possible

. I

could

be scum with '1-shot nuke the world' powers... probably not but it's

possible

. You're bashing Kingdom for using PoE as a tactic when it can actually work quite well. Whereas you're using arguments like

"He wanted to really subtly flag himself as a Traitor... so he openly yelled: 'Hey guys... there might be a Traitor!'... subtle, no?"

I mean... come on.

And all this "I want an answer to x" or "You haven't responded to y" is kinda annoying. If you want to ask me a question, go for it. If you want me to respond to your every post and rebuttal it'd take a long... long time.

What I'm saying is, it's fishy that they chose to kill BT for an unknown reason, instead of Scumhunter who clearly soft-claimed a ROLE. Scum look to kill Power Roles as soon as possible, so it is suspicious when a power role is still alive.

Why are you ignoring the case Kingdom put forward. Why would scum waste an NK on someone they thought they could mislynch? I've just come out of a game where I had a powerful non-scum role (I was an SK, so kinda non-scum!). The scum battered me from the outset but I managed to convince them I was 'just Town'. Still, they'd thrown enough suspicion (and I'd made enough noob slips) for them to ignore me for NKs as they were confident they could get me lynched.

Two scum = n-in-10 shot of hitting a PR with n the number of PRs. As scum, if you thought SH

might

be a PR but were pretty confident you could get him lynched would you waste an NK on him? I don't think I would. Would I maybe track him to make sure knowing if he moved around at night and the lynch stalled you could NK him tomorrow? That seems sensible.

Why else? He didn't do anything else with it. He just said "I would rather everyone forget about it, since it makes me seem suspicious" was the message he gave off. His question to Scumhunter vibed like "Hey buddy, don't you notice me??" Because his question didn't help him find scum. (Because he didn't do anything else with it, it was a weird conversation)

This is the strongest piece of evidence you have against Kingdom? IF he's a Traitor (and I still don't buy it) why aren't you going after the scum instead? Taking a shot at Kingdom

maybe

being a Traitor (the worst, most unsubtle Traitor ever by the way) seems a bit of a wild 3-pointer from the half-way line. Isn't it a better (and more likely) shot to try and nail scum?

Carbon, what is your opinion of Post #933

Where is Carbon? Remember, I want an answer to this. We have one day.

This is a direct question at least if another example of the high-pressure sales. What if I don't answer? You'll vote me?

Anyway, what I make of it is Kingdom feeling frustrated by your pressing on with this worlds-worst-traitor line. A bit OMGUS? Maybe. Content-wise? I agree with most of it. Scummy? I don't think so.

Also, you know what your posting reminds me of? McStab. He got into a last-minute, pre-deadline post frenzy too - attempting to set a wagon

any

wagon bar his own rolling. You know who one of those wagons was on? Kingdom. If it turns out he is a Traitor then fair play to you for calling it but to me your posting smacks more and more of the last throes of scum trying to save their ass. My vote's staying on you.

[Carbondioxide]

Really?

First you were so sure it should be Kingdom for the next lynch (#860 - "lynch Kingdom today");

then it was Scumhunter (#872 and your long 'case' on him which amounted to: "McStab might have lied!" and "he's been flaky!" with a bit of "he voted Kingdom {to save McStab}!" who was scum a minute ago (then becomes a Traitor, then scum again later too!);

Then you're back to Kingdom again (#942) because... well... I'm unclear on that. Because he disagrees with you - you're Town (obviously) ergo he's scum? I think...

Now I get treated to a 'case' (yay!) in (#949) which, in summary, is: "He disagrees with me too!" - we've already seen that in itself is enough for a vote but there's more: "He changed his mind!" (shame you won't vote yourself Ran - you'd have a cast iron case on this part alone!) but there's still more: apparently I DON'T change my mind too (not enough or in the way Ran'd like clearly) so that makes me scum too.

Not enough for a vote though. I almost feel left out.

Just so we're all clear. Ran thinks Kingdom is scum now (was scum, then a Traitor now just scum); Scumhunter is Town again (was Town, then scum now Town); and I've gone from definite Town (#833) to scum. But remember people changing your mind is BAD... and possibly scummy. Sometimes. (still not clear on when/why but I have no doubt we'll be enlightened soon).

[Carbondioxide]

Where did I say that you were changing your mind?

Ta-da:

goes as far as backtracking on his 'clear' of me

As for keeping votes on scum-reads I think you've smashed all the windows in your glass house with those stones. Why don't you tell me? You clearly have the answer so do share.

[Carbondioxide]

And 'to be clear'... I'm not jumping through hoops that you set with rules and criteria you set. I have no doubt you'd reject/rebutt whatever I said as, no doubt, it wouldn't fit one or more of your criteria. So - no thanks.

You're the one with two votes on you. I'd say it's the case against you that needs more of your attention rather than getting snippy with me - whom even you aren't voting for.

[Carbondioxide]

Ran: How many scum do you think there are left? One? Two? One + Traitor? Two + Traitor?

It's just you now seem pretty convinced I'm scum... but are voting Kingdom and even pushing others to do so. Therefore you must think there are at least two scum players (of some shade) left. Which leads me to this question:

What do you think about the balance of a 9:3 set-up, where the only Town PRs are Doctor/Nurse?

[Carbondioxide]

Carbon, now it seems you want me to answer your question. It's a two way street, answer my question first, then I'll answer.

Bluntly — no. You're asking me when I "stuck to" a vote? Rather than used it as pressure? Why? As I've said, I get the feeling whatever I answer you'll have some hole or other to pick in it so I'm not playing that game. As I said (and as you're inferring) you know the answer anyway, so why ask? You tell me what you think the answer is and if I disagree I'll be sure to let you know.

And as for you and Kingdom and comments on my scum-hunting. Could you be a bit more patronising? But be sure to only use words of one or two syllables else I might not understand.

You two 'ace scum-hunters' are voting for each other — so unless you're in cahoots one (or both) of you ain't such a crack shot either.

[Carbondioxide]

Ran: in the spirit of goodwill I'll answer something you brought up, namely my not changing my vote on you after our back and forth (which basically amounts to you saying: "I tried really hard to get you not to vote me and you disagreed - so you must be scum!" which is poor, but still).

Back in the back and firth I said:

You're not saying "He soft claimed a PR, then wants us to believe he's VT" you're saying "He soft claimed PR but IS VT". A subtle but important difference.

To which you replied:

Scumhunter simply soft claimed a VT, to stay alive.

Big question here is: Did he? I'd say he left a soft-claim-ish dangling. Not to VT but possibly more. It was pretty soft even by soft claim standards but still that's what I took it as. It'd seem you did too given your confusion over why scum didn't NK him. You can't have it both ways. Either he soft claimed VT or PR.

Either way I found your rebuttal of my spotting your slip of calling SH "actually Town" weak. Whether you said that post SH's claim in the mass claim has no effect on this. If you're convinced he's scum (as it seems you were - at the time, before another about-face) you wouldn't be calling him Town, actual Town or any kinda Town. You have in mind that, you thought, he was lying. Your comment didn't come from this mindset - it came from one of KNOWING SH's alignment.

You've said nothing which dissuades me from this.

[Carbondioxide]

1. SH softclaims in thread VT.

Scumhunter even said it himself. I never said 'actually town', I said while being a VT. He obviously didn't softclaim a PR, because he wasn't a PR. Don't you understand that, Carbon?

Ok. Let's say SH did soft claim VT (I still say that's in doubt but we'll park that for now).

Where does that leave your "Why didn't the scum NK him?" argument?

[Carbondioxide]

Carbon

:

In the same place. When you soft claim, you aren't actually claiming in thread. You are just saying that there is a role related reason to stay alive. VT or PR. It turns out he was really just a VT, who soft claimed. Or, soft-claimed while being a VT.

I'll respond to you momentarily, Kingdom.

Ok. So why are you voting Kingdom then? To be clear, I'm getting your reads as:

Kingdom = scum (VOTE)
CO2 = scum
SH/Bork = scum? Or just lying, terrible Town?
Elias = ?
Hoopla = ?
Ranmaru = Town, natch.

With all that scum around its way past Lylo already no? All us scummy types should have the game won already, shouldn't we? It'd really help me clarify your views if you could answer my earlier question about what you think the set-up is.

[Carbondioxide]

Hoopla

- I believe I've documented my Hoopla suspicion pretty well. The point he raises about the 3p LYLO is a good point, but I'm still not willing to rule him out. Depending on who else is in said LYLO, he could still come out on top in that situation.

So basically, I'm not lynching Ranmaru or Bork today. I would still be most in favor of the Hoopla lynch. If Hoopla's not in the cards then its gotta be Kingdom.

Vote: Hoopla

Ouch man, that hurts.

Come on Hoop, you can do better than that, surely? We're a day out from an extended deadline with two players tied at two votes and the most you have to contribute is "Ouch"?

I don't think a no-lynch helps the Town much — we'd just lose another Townie in an NK — so I won't let it stay tied. If a Ranmaru wagon's going nowhere I'm happy to switch to vote you as, as you're second on my scum list. That'd make it a tie between you and Elias.

[Carbondioxide]

So, at least everyone has a vote down now. I make it:

Kingdom 3 (Ranmaru; Hoopla; Bork)
Ranmaru 2 (CO2; Kingdom)
Hoopla 1 (Elias)

[Carbondioxide]

So, at least everyone has a vote down now. I make it:

Kingdom 3 (Ranmaru; Hoopla; Bork)
Ranmaru 2 (CO2; Kingdom)
Hoopla 1 (Elias)

If it was near deadline, would you vote Kingdom? Why or why not?

No. Because I don't read him as scum.

I've been putting a lot of reading time into my vote on you (checking your ISO etc.). Your previous pushes on McStab do have me doubting myself - but no vote is ever 100%. I'm not expecting sympathy here, just being honest.

If not you (and it was near deadline) I'd vote Hoopla to ensure it wasn't a no-lynch but not Kingdom. Maybe I'm wrong (I voted 'buckles & Snake too) but I'm not getting the Kingdom-case.

[Carbondioxide]

Right.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Hoopla

Elias just made it pretty clear he won't vote Ran; Bork shows no intent there either; Hoopla - who knows; and (Ran) ain't going to vote for himself.

[Carbondioxide]

@Kingdom - just to be clear I won't let you change your vote to save yourself with a no lynch. As I said to Ran I don't want to vote you but if the choice is you or no lynch at all I'll unvote Hoop removing the tie.

I cannot see how a no lynch favours the Town at all. I'm prepared to admit I may have got it wrong but sitting here wringing our hands with no lynches as scum pick us off with NKs just seems nonsensical to me.

[Carbondioxide]

You're not in a vacuum Kingdom but it's you or a no lynch. Of two options I don't favour lynching you is the least bad.

[Carbondioxide]

Now this is what I feel people should remember going into tommorow. (Especially on a Kingdom Scumflip)

Post #949
Post #950
Post #965

If Kingdom flips scum, Carbon is definetly scum. Keep in mind that he only explained 'what he got' from our interactions once I accused him of not even considering what he actually gained from our back and forth. He says that he was only doing so since he was in good spirits, but this is bullshit. He was doing so because he was being called out. He misreps me by saying that it was me actually saying that Scumhunter was actually town, when I was saying actually a VT.

Now then. Look at his recent actions. He was refusing to vote Kingdom, and I don't understand if he stated he'd unvote Hoopla to vote Kingdom. Obviously, he didn't by now. I also see his unvoting of me and voting Hoopla to be very opportunistic. He's fine with any wagon that isn't Kingdom. Oh ok. He'd even No lynch. (He is conversing with Kingdom but he doesn't outright say if he would vote kingdom when dealt with a Deadline, so this point will still stand unless he clarifies where he stated a "well I'll vote you instead then" stance)

I'll tell you what IS interesting... that you're already talking as if there IS definitely more than one more scum - when quite a few think there may just be one more. How might you know that I wonder?

[Carbondioxide]

1. I told you so.
2. What now 'ace scumhunter' Ranmaur?
3. Come on Hoop - you'll have to do better than that. A "should we no lynch" - and that's it? I'm sure the scum would love us to just rush through another day so they can pick another Townie off with a free shot; no analysis; no comments etc. the fact you don't even back it with a "no lycnh" vote casts you in a bad light.

[Carbondioxide]

I'm serious. I'm LA at weekends to excuse the brevity. But you've contributed sweet FA for the last week or more so popping up now with no more to contribute than "should we no lynch"? is crappy. You're one of the most experienced players here - YOU tell us! And why. And an explanation on where the heck you've been wouldn't go amiss either.

You may even throw in some "I think the scum is/are" if you were feeling especially helpful.

[Carbondioxide]

Right now, I think it is you. How do you feel about that?

Better. At least that's

something

.

Why

do you think it's me (and don't say "because x said so" etc.). What have I done which makes you think it's me. And, if you think it's me, why do you favour a no lynch?

[Carbondioxide]

Statistically speaking, the smartest play is a no lynch. Why would we want to make a choice out of 4 at LYLO when we could be doing it at 3 with that much less chance of mislynching for the loss?

I'm all for playing the odds and agree we should, probably make a no lynch. However, I don't see that as any reason to waste this day phase. We lost two more Townies last night - Kingdom after certain players (Ran I'm looking at you) lead a lynch campaign on him; and Bork - which, to me, was an interesting pick as NK, given Scumhunter's replace out in that slot.

I'd like to hear people's thoughts on these at least before we tie up a quick no lynch and just give the scum another NK in their lap, without at least making them work a bit.

Also, 4 left means there MUST be only 1 scum left - else it'd be game over. Those that argued long and hard, right to the last (yes Ran, largely you again) that there was more than 1 - I'd like to hear your thoughts now.

[Carbondioxide]

Here is what we are going to do

:

We all give two top scumpicks, and why.
State if you would rather lynch today or tommorow. Why or why not.

In this order

:

Elias, Hoopla, Carbon, Me.

It's that simple.

Uh... say WHAT now? Who died and made you King? You were the one heading up the Kingdom lynch (whoopsles!) so you wanna run by me again why it is you're last in this ordering of things you've trumped up? I guess we needn't ask who you think is most scummy given you made this running order!

We've got one lynch left so, just playing the odds it makes more sense to do it in the next Day - but I'll be a monkey's gonad if I'm going to let Mr. Mislynch dictate the play.

And P.S. weren't you the one with this great 'case' on me prior to Kingdom's lynch? Now Hoopla's following your lead but all of a sudden I'm less scummy than both her and Elias (based on your ordering). You change your mind more than you change your underwear! Why is it we should put ANY store in anything you say?

[Carbondioxide]

This is bloody ridiculous. EVERYONE is going to get prodded the day before LyLo. Scum are going to win this as the Town are too apathetic to give a... damn.

[Carbondioxide]

Carbon, I have still not gotten your scumpicks. You have a problem with what I'm trying to do, so why don't you give your two picks and reasons in why you believe them.

Do you agree with no lynch today, or do you think there should be a lynch today?

Y'see, I must've missed the part where I agreed to you being in charge and dictating who does what and when. You want to know my "picks"? ISO me. I've been pretty clear about who I suspect lately.

I'm aware that, mathematically there's no reason to lynch today but I'm finding this game so exasperating I'm tempted to go for a 'f**k it lynch' - as my fellow Townies seem SO apathetic about whether we win or not its making me feel like an idiot for giving so much of a damn.

[Carbondioxide]

How are you simultaneously complaining about town being apathetic and about someone trying to take charge?

Telling everyone what to do and in what order - leaving yourself as last (when at least I think he's pretty scummy) is not "taking charge" it's fishing for information to work out who should be your next NK. It's also 'faux pro-Town'.

[Carbondioxide]

I'm aware that, mathematically there's no reason to lynch today but I'm finding this game so exasperating I'm tempted to go for a 'f**k it lynch' - as my fellow Townies seem SO apathetic about whether we win or not its making me feel like an idiot for giving so much of a damn.

Are you serious?

Do you want to no lynch, yes or no? Then answer why.

Very serious. I favour a no lynch but I can't see what the hurry is - or how, as has been said, any analysis/discussion favours scum and not Town. It's 3v1 - so I can't see why (other than apathy) people are in such a rush to tie up a no lynch and rush to Lylo.

[Carbondioxide]

So... 50/50 chance. I think it's Hoopla - but will withhold from voting for obvious reasons.

[Carbondioxide]

Why do you think its Hoopla exactly? I agree but I don't remember you ever expressing suspicion of Hoopla until now.

It's pretty clear Carbon was nurdling his opinion on me just before we no-lynched yesterday. He was clearly shaping for this combination of players in lylo given you've only ever been interested in lynching me.

Think for a second why you've been left alive for today.

This is assuming you aren't the scum, though.

Just plain wrong and a massive mis-represntation Hoopla. I've had you in the top two of my 'lynch-list' for nearly a month now. I'm doing this on my tablet so can't hyperlink these easily but read my posts: #893; #931; & #999. The last is even a vote on Hoopla in the lead-up to the Kingdom mislynch. Hardly "nurdling" - whatever that means.

Hoopla - for this super-experienced, game-running Mod I'm not sure this 'playing dumb' cap fits. All the "should we no lynch?" and "assuming you aren't the scum, though" - it doesn't fit. I'm even more convinced that you're the scum now.

[Carbondioxide]

Obviously the "why would Hoopla leave me alive" stuff is totally wifom. Killing Ranmaru makes me look nicely scummy after my push on him but again, wifom.

I've been suspicious of Hoopla since Day1 (go back and check) and as for reasons, rather than give more fuel to Hoopla's "he would say that now... he planned for this Lylo" fire, read my posts: #680 #705.

Basically the only time I haven't been pretty sure of scum-Hoopla was when I got distracted by: a) McStab b) Ranmaru c) my own over thinking!

Hoopla, I'm that convinced it's you, consider this intent to vote you. Unless you have a stellar argument that it's Elias I'm going to vote you and if - as you claim to suspect - it might still be Elias, he might hammer you.

[Carbondioxide]

Everypony has been prodded.

This is so ridiculous its funny.

VOTE: Hoopla

[Carbondioxide]

I was almost certain that it was Hoopla. /stalking other games.

You know I don't suck as scum.

But you do suck as Town!

Disappointing. Well played Elias (and many thanks Llama). I think the game was let down by a serious lack of effort/commitment from some players. Way too many replace-outs and prods. I kinda hopes to take a lead ad learn from some more experienced players but that didn't happen much.

Perhaps I need to do more myself. Still, all a learning curve and thanks to all for playing with me.