Mini Normal 1375 - Over

[KingdomAces]

Ranmaru, In case you couldn't tell, the

entire time

my point was unless she's the third member of her scumteam, or she's town. I also mentioned quite a few times that I highly doubted there was three scum. When I said I was calling her a townread, it wasn't because I changed my mind, but because you continued to claim I was still calling her scum despite me repeatedly telling you that I was almost completely sure that there was no third scum.

In case you don't understand that, my calling Hoopla town had nothing to do with actually reading her differently. Since I believed that Hoopla was only scum if there was at least one other person on her scumteam, when it became readily apparent due to setup that there was only two scum that mechanically made her a townread. I knew the traitor scenario was unlikely when I first posted it and as time went on I realized just how ridiculous it actually was.

Yes I know that Snake flipped town. You can't call reasons that were formed before his flip weak solely due to the outcome unless you already knew his alignment before then.

By usually, I meant in cases where WIFOM is involved, not usually where the WIFOM stemmed from pronouns. It just seemed too intricate to deem worthy of notice.

Yes the case was easy because he was lurking, but there were times when he did post and he posted nothing at all relevant at those times. He obviously did have some amount of time to read due to the fact that he responded to some of my posts, but he didn't provide anything else with that time that could have helped town.

If you don't remember, I did have a minor townread on you at one point in time. What you're mentioning with the difference between you and Elias is probably where that townread came from. I know it's possible to take both stances as both alignments, but my problem with Elias is that he is using his stances on the wagons as a moral high ground when all he did relatively little to back these stances.

I never actually said it was gut before, because at this point I really don't need to convince anyone that my read on him is accurate. Whether or not I'm right about the WIFOM can only be determined postgame, but in the meantime I'm confidant in it enough myself that I can base my own reads on it. If I was trying to convince someone of it, then I would take the time to find exactly what about it makes me think he's town, but I don't think that's necessary at the moment.

Response to Elias coming.

[LlamaFluff]

Vote Count

KingdomAces (3) - Hoopla, Ranmaru, Borkjerfkin
Hoopla (2) - Elias_the_thief, Carbondioxide
Ranmaru (1) - KingdomAces

With 6 alive it takes 4 to lynch
Deadline is November 15th, 3PM PST

[KingdomAces]

I definitely didn't think my case on Snake was weak, and all you did to show you disagreed was just state that you thought Snake was a bad lynch. It doesn't matter how many times you said it if in doing so you made no effort to back these statements up. If you didn't think you would be able to change anyone's mind, then why did you even bother posting your stance on Hoopla, or more generally why are you here? Isn't that the purpose of playing mafia? Unless since yesterday you were planning on getting Hoopla lynched today, then part of getting people to see why your suspect is scummier then theirs is saying why they are wrong.

I suppose you did to defend Starbuckles, but that just leaves me wondering why you didn't even bother defending Snake all the more.

On day 2, you did almost exactly as much to lynch McStab as you did to save Snake. Early on you said a few things and then immediately downplayed them, and later on you resorted to contentless posts.

Day 1 on the other hand is another story entirely. I've pretty much forgotten most of what happened on day 1, so when I looked at it again some things definitely stood out. Mostly involving BT. That is for another post though.

Yeah, I guess people do have reads on you. Nearing this close to deadline it still would be better if they remained silent, however.

To everyone,

I will not be voting Hoopla. Since we are at evens, we are going to have to either no lynch today or tomorrow. While it would be better to no lynch tomorrow, if the only options today are me and Hoopla then I would prefer to no lynch today so we have time to consider other options.

[Carbondioxide]

@Kingdom - just to be clear I won't let you change your vote to save yourself with a no lynch. As I said to Ran I don't want to vote you but if the choice is you or no lynch at all I'll unvote Hoop removing the tie.

I cannot see how a no lynch favours the Town at all. I'm prepared to admit I may have got it wrong but sitting here wringing our hands with no lynches as scum pick us off with NKs just seems nonsensical to me.

[KingdomAces]

There are 6 players alive now With a lynch, that will make it 5 players, and with an NK 4. That's MyLo, where the optimal play is to No Lynch to improve town's chances from 25% to 33%. If we No Lynch now, then with the night kill there will be 5 players remaining and we still have two lynches to lynch the scum. Yes we'd be losing a town member, but from my point of view if we lynch now we are going to lose two for no additional gain.

Earlier on it would not have been a good idea to no lynch, since there may have been PR's who could give town an extra kill while taking away one of the scum's. In this case, that would be if a doctor had successfully protected. Since we know that is no longer the case, a no lynch is inevitable at this point.

At the very least, wait for my post on Elias before hammering. I am really drained about now, but I'll try not to take too long before I start it.

[Elias_the_thief]

I definitely didn't think my case on Snake was weak, and all you did to show you disagreed was just state that you thought Snake was a bad lynch. It doesn't matter how many times you said it if in doing so you made no effort to back these statements up.

I would've if there had been a case to refute. Refuting the case was as easy as saying "that's wrong". Even now you only summoned up three posts to represent your "case" and not a single one was worth a vote, let alone a lynch.

If you didn't think you would be able to change anyone's mind, then why did you even bother posting your stance on Hoopla, or more generally why are you here? Isn't that the purpose of playing mafia? Unless since yesterday you were planning on getting Hoopla lynched today, then part of getting people to see why your suspect is scummier then theirs is saying why they are wrong.

I didn't think I could deter people from the lynch by refuting the case because there was really nothing there. How am I supposed to refute nothing if not by saying that the lynch is bad/ essentially a lurker lynch? I presented a much better alternative, and stated that there was nothing behind the Snake lynch. I was under a lot of pressure from school, and it was a lot easier to advocate my suspect then to try and defend Snake, who clearly had no interest in playing even if I managed to derail the lynch. You seem to expect me to be superman, defending Snake from attacks from three different players, while simultaneously advocating my own suspect's lynch, all the while dealing with my school work, illness, and various extra-curricular obligations.

I suppose you did to defend Starbuckles, but that just leaves me wondering why you didn't even bother defending Snake all the more.

Because when I was defending Starbuckles, my number one suspect had just claimed tracker, making his lynch an impossibility, so it didn't involve doing two different things at once. Additionally, the bulk of the Starbuckles case was his slip, something tangible and refutable, whereas Snake's was fluff on top of more fluff with some conjecture for flavor.

On day 2, you did almost exactly as much to lynch McStab as you did to save Snake. Early on you said a few things and then immediately downplayed them, and later on you resorted to contentless posts.

A) Did you consider the fact that halfway through Day 2 I had bronchitus and almost stopped posting entirely?
B) How does this affect your interpretation of my contentless posts?
C) Where the hell did I downplay my own points?

[KingdomAces]

Up until now, everything I've said about Elias is why I don't think it would be possible to have a townread on him. I don't know whether or not he was purposely lurking, but assuming he wasn't all that means is that he shouldn't be called scummy because of it. It does not mean that you should assume that he would have posted things that would have made him look townier if he was able. From here on I'll avoid using anything that could be related to activity levels. Also, I guess we're just going to have to disagree on the Snake lynch, since this has pretty much reverted to was too/was not. Anyway, moving on.

Spoiler: Day 1

Looking through day 1 again I find it weird that Elias is pressuring people who he says have connections to McStab, because he acually had a fairly strong connection himself. For the following, remember that BT was the N1 kill. First after Elias points out some logical inconsistencies in McStab's #59. What follows is this exchange:

Other things. McStab's connection to Kingdom is something to look at, I'll have to analyze them a bit more for the exact reason. When I do that in-depth read.*

Special mention goes to Elias's connection to McStab, disliking without a vote in #59. This goes unmentioned when he votes Robbnva a few posts later, like it wasn't in consideration at all when choosing his vote.

Elias, do you find that being wrong is a scumtell, and if so how? That seems to be your entire case on both Robbnva and McStab.

Well first, let's not throw the word case around lightly. I pointed out flaws in McStab's logic and I'm waiting for a response. My point about Robb is not that he's wrong. Its that he KNOWS protown players sometimes self-vote, while simultaneously believing that a self-vote from Hoopla = definite scum. As I said in my initial post, it reads as if he just jumped on what he thought was an easy lynch.

Kingdom calls his comment on McStab a case and Elias hurries to explain that it's simply pointing out logic flaws. Doesn't that mean you didn't have "a case" on Robbnva either?

I never claimed to have a case on Robb. In this post I refer to my posts against Robb as "my point". I had nothing specific that made me think McStab was scum. I suppose you could refer to what I had on Robb as a case, but I personally never would. He just seemed eager for an easy lynch, which seemed a whole lot more damning than misinterpreting a post.

*Note: Elias actually left this out when he quoted it. I re-added it for future reference.

After this the conversation focuses more on Robb than McStab. While I may have been wrong calling it a case in the first place, he is incredibly jumpy when I do.

And he also makes an associative link between Kingdom and me without a flip. More great play.

I do intend to look into that, but the reads I'm getting from both of you aren't stellar so I don't see the problemo in this.

The only connection BT mentions between McStab and me is in the post quoted above, where he says I'll look at this connection later, but for the moment the only actual connection he shows is the one between McStab and Elias, which McStab avoids. On that note, McStab only mentions Elias once day one, and that had nothing to do with his read on Elias.

For some reason I got the impression that Elias was a lot more supportive of a McStab lynch D1, but this is the closest he gets:

I think BT's case on McStab is the most convincing yet. That being said, I'm not willing to lynch a a one-shot PR today. If his result sucks we can potentially lynch him tomorrow when we there's nothing to lose.

Yes, he votes him earlier but that was a pressure vote. Also his other post directed at McStab was not a case, so...

Spoiler: Day 2

I'm still pretty sure McStab is a scumbag. BT had more than a couple good points in his back and forth. The NK, while I don't like to look too much into NK's, was pretty obvious one for McStab scum, and his claim is easily fakeable. Would be down for McStab wagon.

Elias, if you are pretty sure McStab is a scumbag, why are you joining the wagon he is starting? Do you think he is bussing?

If I was THAT sure he was a scumbag, I'd be voting him. I generally like to wait for flipped scum before basing my votes on who started which wagons. But I mean, there is the fact that Dunham has expressed suspicion of McStab several times in the past few pages for a variety of reasons and refrained from voting him. Instead he lead a crusade against scumhunter. And then voted for Ranmaru based on a much less than he's expressed towards McStab.

Here Elias downplays his own points.

I'm feeling better about Carbon and Ranmaru being town, worse about Elias, a little worse about Kingdom (his logic isn't terrible but attacking lurkers like Elias and his constant jumping on and off of reads strikes a scummy chord with me)

Elias is fairly scummy, but Kingdom is really scummy for attacking Elias. Yeah. I will admit that this was right after I thought I saw something scummy that Elias did, but failed my research, so this is probably a weaker point.

Kingdom's flip has an advantage of potentially catching or clearing (to a small extent; even a Kingdom townflip doesn't have me convinced on Elias) Elias. Scumhunter is unlikely to compromise and will stick with Kingdom. I am willing to compromise on Kingdom, but would prefer Dunham.

I don't have any clue where this came from. I was one of the few people who tried to call attention to Elias all day, but I don't see how that translates to my flip telling anything about Elias. The only thing I can think of here is that he was planning on using my townflip to somehow clear Elias as town.

Short version:
UNVOTE: Ranmaru
VOTE: Elias_the_thief

Please, don't just write Elias off as town. I'm still not too sure on Ranmaru, but somehow I can't shake the feeling that our argument was just a huge misunderstanding.

[KingdomAces]

Anyone? At the very least, can people say

something

before the deadline hits?

[Carbondioxide]

You're not in a vacuum Kingdom but it's you or a no lynch. Of two options I don't favour lynching you is the least bad.

[Elias_the_thief]

As far as 221 is concerned: it wasn't a case, and I clarified as such, as a part of a larger post that addressed everything that had been recently said to/about me. I also clarify that I wouldn't call my points against Robb a case and his slot turned out to be a nurse. What exactly makes my clarification of McStab "jumpy" and my clarification of Robb not?

I can't really speak for McStab's actions. I don't believe this one post trumps the much better established connections to Scumhunter and Hoopla

Day 2: That is by no means downplaying my points, its explaining that suspecting McStab is no reason to not vote Dunham. I said I was pretty sure that he was scum, then clarified that I wasn't absolutely certain, which is why I was fine putting my vote on someone he suspected. There's no reason to restrict your suspects based on the opinion of a suspect unless they're already flipped scum...

In regards to 544: You mean after you blatantly misrepresented me? My position on Starbuckles was completely clear, and you'd just ISO'd me. So yeah. Pretty weak point there.

In regards to 612: he wasn't the only one who mentioned suspicion of a kingdom-Elias scum team. In fact, it came directly after two posts discussing just that possibility. Convenient how you missed that.

[KingdomAces]

I know it's either me or a no lynch at this point. I'm not disputing that, and since Elias is still voting Hoopla it's not going to be a no lynch either. I'm just trying to say as much as I can before I can't anymore. Also, this is the final reminder that you should no lynch tomorrow anyway.

221: You just dismissed the part about McStab while you went in depth about Robb. It sounds like you did have a point about Robb, so therefore you telling me not to use the word case lightly was talking about McStab. If you notice, I didn't call it a case this time, so why are you still making sure we know that?

Better and more established means more likely to be WIFOM. Since I'm almost completely sure it's not Hoopla or Scumhunter, I'd say that it does trump those connections. The rest of town can come to their own conclusions.

down·play

Make (something) appear less important than it really is.

He was supposedly your main suspect throughout most of day 1, and overnight you became more sure of his scumminess, yet you would rather vote someone for being a useless person. You sound incredibly certain that McStab is scum, and less certain about Dunham, yet you still vote the latter and follow up by saying that you're not actually very sure about the former.

544: I was skimming instead of using Ctrl+F and that caused me to miss that part of the post. I said it was probably a weaker point, but the rest of the day I was attacking Carbon using admittedly stupid arguments, and he wasn't lurking through most of that exchange. No matter how bad my point was, McStab had very little reason to say that.

612: A. I was ISOing, so that's why I missed those posts. B. They didn't discuss why, they just said it was a possibility. I remember trying to figure out where this was coming from at the time and got nothing, so the fact that he was trying to treat it as fact is still suspicious.

[Ranmaru]

I have class soon. I'll be posting my final thoughts now.

Kingdom, overall I feel your PoE reads are crap, and the way you tried to push them were suspicious. I can't believe that you REALLY believed in the Snake lynch being scum. Your vote on me was opportunistic, seeing as Carbon was voting me. It seemed more like you were using the opportunity of there being a wagon on me, to go in my direction. This is also scummy because you had a weak townread on me for no reason, yet you state that my spearheading the Mcstab wagon is 'Probably why' you had the weak UNSUBSTANTIATED townread on me. That doesn't fly. You using wifom to support your Scumhunter read (and previously, your Dumhammer read) was very suspicious. You then say you believed in your SH wifom-read because of GUT, something you haven't mentioned before. This reeks of you trying to justify why you feel the wifom-read was legit on your part. Again, you can't ever know the exact direction the wifom is going, so this is why it's suspicious that you SEEM to garner a read from it. Get it through your head.

Go ahead and explain your reasoning behind you now thinking our argument was just a misunderstanding, and why you waited until today (deadline day) to switch your vote.
Also explain your Carbon read in full. How does it conflict with your vote on him during D2 (I believe).

[Ranmaru]

Now this is what I feel people should remember going into tommorow. (Especially on a Kingdom Scumflip)

Post #949
Post #950
Post #965

If Kingdom flips scum, Carbon is definetly scum. Keep in mind that he only explained 'what he got' from our interactions once I accused him of not even considering what he actually gained from our back and forth. He says that he was only doing so since he was in good spirits, but this is bullshit. He was doing so because he was being called out. He misreps me by saying that it was me actually saying that Scumhunter was actually town, when I was saying actually a VT.

Now then. Look at his recent actions. He was refusing to vote Kingdom, and I don't understand if he stated he'd unvote Hoopla to vote Kingdom. Obviously, he didn't by now. I also see his unvoting of me and voting Hoopla to be very opportunistic. He's fine with any wagon that isn't Kingdom. Oh ok. He'd even No lynch. (He is conversing with Kingdom but he doesn't outright say if he would vote kingdom when dealt with a Deadline, so this point will still stand unless he clarifies where he stated a "well I'll vote you instead then" stance)

[Ranmaru]

Elias, it's 4:12 PM Est. That means we have less than two hours. I will not switch. Kingdom is the lynch. So get on board.

Bring the almighty hammer of justice.

[KingdomAces]

My vote on you was probably partially OMGUS and partially because you seemed to misunderstand pretty much everything I said. Aside from that, you made me repost the exact same things over and over again and continued to ignore them when I did. I don't know whether this was one of us not being clear in what we were saying, or not remembering each other's points correctly or if you really were scum just dodging all of my questions, but we were not talking about the same thing. Whether or not I'm scummy doesn't matter anymore since I'm going to get lynched anyway. Your push on McStab was not what gave me the townread on you, but the fact that you actively argued for everything you believed in.

I waited until today to switch my vote, becuase I'm only now starting to get my townread on you again. I am trying to look at things more objectively so town doesn't just autolynch someone tomorrow without thinking about it.

I never really had a scumread on Carbon, I had noticed at the beginning of day one that he reacted weirdly to pressure, and was hoping he would do so again in a more alignment oriented way. He didn't but that probably was because the pressure I actually put on him was crap. Even so, if he was scum I would have expected him to slip at some point, which he hasn't. He's acting this way now because he thinks that you should lynch no matter what on any given day, which is correct in most cases.

If you still want my responses to anything else, wait for postgame. I'll still defend my actions, and if you can prove they were implicitly wrong I'll be sure to listen to you then.

I'm probably not going to get a chance to say anything else, so my final thoughts are:

1. No Lynch tomorrow with as little information given as possible. It seems everyone still alive is a suspect, so the loss of a town voice is going to be far less of an issue than the decreased chance of a scumlynch.

2. I still really don't think Carbon or Hoopla are scum, and probably not Scumhunter/Bork either.

3. Of Ranmaru/Elias, right now I think it's more likely to be Elias. I can't look at the argument between Ranmaru and me from an unbiased perspective, so look at it again for me after my flip.

[Carbondioxide]

Now this is what I feel people should remember going into tommorow. (Especially on a Kingdom Scumflip)

Post #949
Post #950
Post #965

If Kingdom flips scum, Carbon is definetly scum. Keep in mind that he only explained 'what he got' from our interactions once I accused him of not even considering what he actually gained from our back and forth. He says that he was only doing so since he was in good spirits, but this is bullshit. He was doing so because he was being called out. He misreps me by saying that it was me actually saying that Scumhunter was actually town, when I was saying actually a VT.

Now then. Look at his recent actions. He was refusing to vote Kingdom, and I don't understand if he stated he'd unvote Hoopla to vote Kingdom. Obviously, he didn't by now. I also see his unvoting of me and voting Hoopla to be very opportunistic. He's fine with any wagon that isn't Kingdom. Oh ok. He'd even No lynch. (He is conversing with Kingdom but he doesn't outright say if he would vote kingdom when dealt with a Deadline, so this point will still stand unless he clarifies where he stated a "well I'll vote you instead then" stance)

I'll tell you what IS interesting... that you're already talking as if there IS definitely more than one more scum - when quite a few think there may just be one more. How might you know that I wonder?

[Elias_the_thief]

Ok. I wanted to respond to Kingdom's post but I guess I'll do it tomorrow, assuming I'm still alive.

Unvote, vote KingdomAces

[KingdomAces]

Still town.

[LlamaFluff]

Vote Count

KingdomAces (3) - Hoopla, Ranmaru, Borkjerfkin
Hoopla (2) - Elias_the_theif, Cardondioxide
Elias_the_thief (1) - KingdomAces

~Note the vote cast in post 1016 came after deadline so is not counted.

KingdomAces - Vanilla Townie - Lynched Day Four

Deadline for night actions is in 48 hours - November 17th, 4PM PST

[LlamaFluff]

borkjerfkin - Vanilla Townie - Killed Night Four

With 4 alive it takes 3 to lynch
Deadline is December 1st, 5PM PST

[Hoopla]

Eh, so are we no lynching?

[Carbondioxide]

1. I told you so.
2. What now 'ace scumhunter' Ranmaur?
3. Come on Hoop - you'll have to do better than that. A "should we no lynch" - and that's it? I'm sure the scum would love us to just rush through another day so they can pick another Townie off with a free shot; no analysis; no comments etc. the fact you don't even back it with a "no lycnh" vote casts you in a bad light.

[Hoopla]

Shaping me up for tomorrow or are you serious?

[Carbondioxide]

I'm serious. I'm LA at weekends to excuse the brevity. But you've contributed sweet FA for the last week or more so popping up now with no more to contribute than "should we no lynch"? is crappy. You're one of the most experienced players here - YOU tell us! And why. And an explanation on where the heck you've been wouldn't go amiss either.

You may even throw in some "I think the scum is/are" if you were feeling especially helpful.

[Hoopla]

Right now, I think it is you. How do you feel about that?