Mini 1400(!): Bubble Tape Mafia - It's Over!

[mastin2]

Hi, guys. Mastin, here. Looks like you guys went and derped by lynching the cop day one, but have no fears! I am here! With me in the game, you might as well have a cop still.

AP's 100% town.

VOTE: Jake from State Farm. (/sheeping AP)

I've also got a townread on qwints. Hammering the cop, stupid as it was, in the way qwints did was--as AP hinted at--a pretty big towntell.

Note that I've pretty much only read page 19 (and had to leave just after getting my role PM), so I wasn't really aware of anyone else in the game, but it looked like you could have used the helping hand, hence why I am here.

Also, hi, d3x, nice to see ya. (d3x is the scum mastermind who helped get me one of my only four scum wins in my career. Yes, my scum winrate is

that

abysmally low; in a hundred non-marathon games, I can count the scum victories on a single hand. d3x, Reck and Fate in Lovers Mafia, plus two games featuring encryptors, Oversoul's mini and a Large Normal run by someone I forget.) Mind explaining to me why you're not scum?
You look like scum to me.

(Which answers AP's question. )

Can totally see Thor/Kythnx as being scum, too, but eh, not sure.

Zipper's pretty obvtown, though.

By the way, kush also lookin' town.

So that's 19-current skimmed (blah blah skimmed jake and Thor), though I also want to know this:

Everyone:

Why do you think Rondar was killed?

[mastin2]

mastin, why vote Jake over the person AP's actually voting (kthxbye?)

Eh, Jake looks worse than kthnxbye from what little I've seen. But I might switch. Still haven't read the game.

Killing a replacement pre-post would normally make me think about either a history between that player and one of the scum or the player's general reputation, but neither makes sense here. If I had to guess, the most likely goal is to try to frame someone but too much WIFOM there to conclude anything at this point.

Alright, couple other related questions:
-

Everyone: What was your opinion on that slot going into night?
What was the town's overall opinion of that slot?

-

qwints:

Why do you think the scum killed that replacement, when quite frankly I'm the far larger threat?

Mastin, can you tell me how AP is town when I have caught him in a boldface lie?

Is lying to paint someone scummy a town tell somehow?

From AP it is.

Serious, AP's as town as he can ever be this game. I don't care if I reverse every other read of mine in this game; I'm never reversing my AP read.

[mastin2]

Because the obv. town players have scum in them or are painfully wrong in who they currently suspect.

Okay, then.
Who are(/were) the obvtown players?
Why are these two statements to you mutually exclusive? (You said "or" rather than "and/or".)

And then there's these questions.

Everyone:

What was your read on MY slot going into night?
What was the town's overall read on my slot going into night?

Oh, and

Vote: kthnx

.

[mastin2]

Thor, you answered most of my questions, but neglected to answer one of the more important ones:

Who are/were the obvtown players?

In fact, let me extend that question to the whole town--going into night, who did

you

consider obvtown?

[mastin2]

Jake, address me.

[mastin2]

Who are/were the obvtown players?

In fact, let me extend that question to the whole town--going into night, who did

you

consider obvtown?

[mastin2]

@Mastin: haha, ok I think you are town. Lets be masons! : P

Yes, please.

My top two at this point are kthnx and d3x, with Thor as the third. (I almost want to use bold and say "Calling It:" to it, but not quite confident enough yet.)

It's

painfully

obvious from the first seven or so pages of the thread.

Particularly this gem,

@Safety- What exactly do you find scummy with kush's p19? Not understanding a reason to post something =/= Scum posting.

The classic distancing maneuver from d3x. Add in the flash-wagon on obvtown kush which I'm pretty much guaranteeing has two scum on it, and that I have Maverick as a townread, and that Cyber's posting (while starting off bad) got better and better and that d3x was voting MM for something he himself said was null, and, well, the evidence is mounting up.

Oh, and add in lots of gut from my skim-read of the last few pages.

Mind you, there's more to it than just this, but if you want a full case, you have to give me the time for a full read. Not to worry; making progress fast.

[mastin2]

Whoops. Made that first four pages.
(On page four, you have up to page seven in your whachamacallit thingy next to the "page x of 24". Which on 24, is 1 ... 20 21 22 23 24, and on 4 is something like 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 ... 24.)

[mastin2]

This game's way too easy. AP, we're gonna steamroll the mafia, since their largest mistake in the game was not killing me n1.

AP's town, qwint's town, kush is obvtown, and Maverick's as strong of a townread as I'll get.
Zipper's a townread as well (albeit not as strong), and then there's Cyber who pulled an incredible reversal from null-leaning-scum up to the upper side of null-town, with Jake not far behind. (AKA, weak townreads; Cyber's slightly more town than Jake.)
Leaving just three names for scum: d3x, kthnxbye, and Thor.

Yeah. By POE alone, they'd be scum, but they've also got scumtastic interactions. (d3x also chainsaw defended Thor via trying to discredit AP in the early pages as well.)
Not only are their interactions horribad, but their play is (as far as I can tell) some of the worst in the game. For instance, Safety (who kthnxbye replaced) has some of the worst posts I've seen in my 100-game career.

Pretty much the ONLY thing preventing me from calling this the scumteam is that it's just too dang picture-perfect and it'd be Too Good To Be True. (Meaning it probably isn't.) But, dang, I

so

want it to be.

[mastin2]

Though...the more I think about it...
VOTE: Thor.

...The more I realize my Thor scumread is probably stronger than d3x or kthnxbye.

I get the strangest feeling of deja vu when reading his posts.

[mastin2]

Thought I'd share this.
Dave168: 7 (Cybertronix, Thor665, AngryPidgeon, Kthxbye, k4shmasta, zipperflesh, qwints)

d3x is the scum off the wagon.
He's of the mentality not to join the wagon for two reasons:
1: Doesn't want all scum on the wagon, AND
2: Pushed the lynch but didn't want to be caught on it.

What changed your mind on Jake?

His banter with Thor. It makes him a whole heck of a lot stronger town than he was originally.

@Mastin - you scum this game?

Never.

[mastin2]

(That said...

2: Pushed the lynch but didn't want to be caught on it.

...This also applies to Jake*. Still think he's town, but it's not as strong as it could have been.)

*And Maverick, if memory serves.

[mastin2]

Thinkin' Jake's stance d1 makes lots of sense.

Also, I keep reading d3x, kthnx, and Thor, yet...they keep on all looking like scum.

Also, kush shouldn't be lynched, pretty much ever. The only lynch which'd be worse than kush would be AP.

Basically, Thor/kthnx/d3x should be lynched. If the game's not over when all of them have been lynched, we can look elsewhere for scum, but I still think that's our team.

[mastin2]

AP, you had it right before.

We're masons this game, okay?

[mastin2]

Yeah, let's lynch Dave.

This. But let's wait for the 3 f*ing replacements.

d3x supports the lynch.

Yeah, L-1 RoleClaims were pretty standard when I was here last. I don't knwo if anything has changed since then, but I don't see any reason why they would've.

p-edit. Generally you'll be asked before someone is ready to Hammer. We're not quite to that point, yet.

d3x pressures Dave to claim.

Claim now if you want. No one should be Hammering before the replacements get here. We also have 2 weeks, so there's no problem with deadlines creeping up.

More pressure to claim.

Any breadcrumbs for us?

Gaging mislynch potential.

3 posts in a row wasn't a tell.

Floundering and looking all scummy as hell in the expanse of three rapid fire posts after a probable scumslip... that was a tell.

Showing support for the lynch, yet never being on it.

This is not a town approach.

[mastin2]

Yeah, let's lynch Dave.

OK. Suppose that was to happen. Is it normal to want a roleclaim first?

yes you will be asked to role claim at some point, usually when someone gives intent to hammer.

Since we have plenty of time left, I am fine waiting for replacements but I also will go ahead and imply that I have an intent to hammer.

I don't want to end the day yet because the new people's thoughts and reactions could be useful

This is similar to d3x's post. By gut, though, it looked more town to me.

But if there is no counterclaim - surely my claim holds water then.

Did you really just say this?

That's an admission of guilt if I ever saw one. The odds that a cop is in this setup anyway is slim, not many normal games have them and when they do they usually have a modifier attached.

No self respecting cop would ever counter on day 1.

That being said, I have a no lynching of a claimed PRs on day 1. Surely we can give him a stay of execution for 1 day.

Jake explains that he thinks Dave is lying, but also explains quite clearly why he doesn't want to lynch him. This continues in the next relevant post...

But if this setup has max 1 cop, any other cop should claim now. Then take your pick of who to lynch day 1 / 2, and you will have a scum for sure. I think we used this technique in my 2nd Newbie game.

if you were REALLY a cop, why would you ask someone to CC you? if you are legit there would be no CC nor would there be a need to ask for one.

And is further emphasized again...

in my 2nd newbie game it was a day 3 cop claim with 5 people left. we'd lynched mafia roleblocker and doctor was NK'd, and in that setup (F11 I think) that meant there HAD to be a cop. i started day 3 asking for the cop. he duly claimed and was believed, since in that setup there could only be 1. hence in that scenario CC was the right thing to ask for, to narrow down from 5 people to only 2, with 2 lynches.

sure its wrong in this scenario, but I'm just throwing stuff out there, I can't think of every pro and con, i'm hoping other people can help out. but if its not even a valid subject for discussion, thats OK too.

that's exactly right, it's wrong in THIS scenario for multiple reasons.

1. if you were telling the truth who would CC you? Scum? No they wouldn't
2. another cop? - highly unlikely
3. a townie? sorry this isn't epic mafia

...But he makes sure to emphasize his viewpoint against lynching a PR d1 in his next post.

personally i like my policy so I will stick with it.


Dave, i was looking at your paraphrase of your role pm, your role PM says you are aligned with the town is that pretty close to how it is worded in your role pm, is it worded differently, or did you just add that in there?

And not only that, but instead of a Dave lynch, he also gives a transparent thought process for exactly who he'd prefer if not for Dave, when he says this:

Thor

So.
d3x rolefished, and when presented with the cop claim, gaged for lynchability. When Dave proved an easy target, he directed suspicion onto Dave, while avoiding being on the wagon.

Jake explained, and when presented with the cop claim, was skeptical, explaining in crystal clear (rather than vague) posts as to why. However, despite being suspicious of the claim, Jake also explained exactly why he wasn't joining the Dave wagon. AND, better yet, he even offered an alternative wagon to Dave as a d1 lynch, pressuring Thor.

I'm not going to say the difference is that of night and day, but it's still there.

Jake's not exactly in my top tier of townreads, but he's far from the bottom of the list.

d3x, on the other hand...

[mastin2]

VOTE: d3x. Back here.

I can do a full d3x case now, if you'd like.

[mastin2]

Let's see how concise I can make it.

Spoiler: Probably not concise enough :P

His play this game, overall, feels largely as if he's obfuscating things, reminiscent of how he earned his scum victory. It's just that rather than "Newbie Who Has No Experience", this time it's "Fish Out Of Temporal Water", as he uses his out-of-current-site-meta as an excuse for scummy play.

He has been consistently voting for one player while pushing another as a stronger suspect, has largely been trying to discredit others rather than scumhunting, and in general, he's largely been active lurking. Such as his questions to open the game. His posts, overall, just feel like BS, and the stances he takes are highly advantageous, targeting weaker links such as Cyber and kush. Add in weak distancing (requires kthnx scum) and chainsaw defending (mostly for a Thor-scum), and the case becomes strong.

Well, it's under three paragraphs, but still longer than I'd prefer.
-Obfuscating stupidity
-Money not where mouth is
-Opportunistic
-Discrediting others
-Active lurking

[mastin2]

I think Mastin thinks you look scum because I was pointing out that you look it and Mastin is trying to subtly buddy to me.

P-edit: Mastin, how would you compare D3x's interaction with the Dave wagon to yourself and the Robert Montana wagon in mini 1377?

Just 'cause I saw you were town and I agree with most of your suspects doesn't mean I was buddying to ya.

I don't see any similarities between d3x-Dave and me-RM at all.

[mastin2]

In light of the above point, I'm viewing MM's antiRVS as Null.

This was one of the things that sticks out on d3x, as it shows cognitive dissonance.

In this post, he was pressuring Cyber, yet he still had his vote on MM.

It again shows the general trend that d3x has been showing the whole game--not voting where his words are.

Before voting, he tests the waters to see how viable it would be to (mis)lynch the person he's pressuring. This is not townposting.

[mastin2]

VOTE: Jake.

Hardclaim or die.

[mastin2]

Jake, we are never lynching AP.
Least of all, by you softclaiming some bullshit.

If I don't see you hardclaim what role you have, I will push your lynch harder than I've ever pushed a lynch before.

[mastin2]

AP's 100% town. I'm dead serious about this.
We are

not

lynching him. Not now, not ever.

Jake doesn't have that credibility. He's gone from upper-tier town to top-tier scum with that refusal to claim his PR.

[mastin2]

Obviously typed that up before-hand.

But Jake, telling you right now, don't know if you're town or scum, but AngryPidgeon. Is. Not. Scum.

Got that?

VOTE: d3x.

[mastin2]

And AP, I don't care if you think he's scum; we're not lynching him d2.

But we're not lynching you, either. This 1V1 is retarded, got that?

Lynch scum, not Jake. Not AP.

[mastin2]

Heck,

Anyone jumping onto either AP or Jake is scum.

I'll make that as explicit as possible. It applies to Jake, but doubly so to AP.

[mastin2]

Jake.

I'll make this as explicit as possible.

You. Are. Wrong.

AP is town. So if you insist on lynching him, PR claim be damned, I'd rather lynch you than him.

AP. Is. Town.

But I think that you're just derptown right now, so let's put this attempted 1V1 out of the way before it gets any worse and focus on actually catching scum, shall we?
AP is not scum.

[mastin2]

VOTE: kthnxbye.

Let's do this, then.

[mastin2]

AP, give Jake the benefit of the doubt for one day.

We shouldn't lynch him today unless the alternative is lynching you, 'kay?

[mastin2]

Qwints, kush is one of my strongest townreads.

I'm out of time for today, so explanation will have to wait for tomorrow (real-life time) but could you apply your vote to someone else? (Outside of AP/Jake.)

[mastin2]

Meaning, don't vote Jake unless the lynch options are between you and him.

If I have my way (AND I REALLY,

REALLY

SHOULD), then neither one of you will be even close to the chopping block today.

[mastin2]

AP gets lynched today. Sorry mastin, your town read on AP is wrong
P.edit - i'm not answering any questions from you AP. you are confirmed scum and don't need to answer to you

No, your scumread on him is wrong. I told you, at the start of the day. AP is 100% town. Zero doubt.

And so, answer his questions--if not for him, then for me, unless you think I'm scum as well.

(Hint: I'm not.)

[mastin2]

Mastin, PLEASE be town.

Always am, but never moreso than this game.

My top three lynch order would be

kthnx
d3x
Thor


...And probably in that order, but really, the strength of my reads is such that they're largely interchangeable.

If you want my anti-lynch order, it'd be
AP
qwints
kush

In that order for sure.

[mastin2]

UNVOTE:

VOTE: ap

Jake is making sense... ap being sk explains how i can agree. with him but still. read him as scum... either that or. is some kind of strange bus...

Zipper just went from mid-tier town to mid-tier scum.

AP is town, and Jake is wrong.

AP's not an SK. Trust me.
And he's CERTAINLY not groupscum. Avatar, signature, real money, whatever; bet on it now.

AP. Is. Town.
More in this game than he's ever been before, and more than he'll likely ever be again. I swear it, he's town.

[mastin2]

You sound like you are privy to more info than the rest of us AP. Like you know that more than one nk should have happened. You don't believe Jake now you do to try and fit me into this scum role you accuse me of being. I will indeed add to my suspects but it won't be Jake. Consider me like my wife with her twilight saga and being team Jake.
UNVOTE:
VOTE: AP

If ever there was a stronger scumclaim, I have seen it not.

[mastin2]

Can you link to a game where you ask NK speculation as Town, please?

Pretty much every single game I've been in?

NK spec is a lost art I've been trying to revive. You can look at 1377 for an example of why ignoring NK spec (also setup spec) cost the town the game.


And I'm calling BS on you defending against policy lynches. Who, exactly, have you defended against being policy lynched?
Who, exactly, have you been pushing for the lynch of? (People who're easy lynches.)

[mastin2]

Mastin, why do YOU think rondar was killed over you? Why are you asking qwints specifically?

Why Rondar over me?

Simple--the scum either (1) underestimate me and have had neutral/negative experiences with me in the past, (2) don't know me and figured "what's the worst he could do? I mean, he's known as an anti-town waller, right?", or (3) they enjoy playing with me and didn't want to nightkill me.

As for why qwints, you're right, I shoulda asked the whole town. Coulda sworn I actually did extend that question later TO the whole town.

[mastin2]

I ALWAYS wonder why Im not dead if Im town. I just do. It makes me want to reconsider my reads.

Mastin is scum. He just is. His questions about why he wasn't NK'd make no sense from a town perspective. And his stance on us is questionable to say the least. Pfff, and this is the 2nd time you have accused me of being scummy for changing my opinion IN LIGHT OF NEW INFO.

AP, you're not thinking things through, here.

You say that you wonder why you're not dead, yet you're pushing me for wondering why *I* am not dead.


You're town, bro. Seriously, I get it, you are. I

know

you are.

So stop screwing around and for once in your life TRUST ME; I'm town, and so are you.
I'm voting kthnxbye, you're voting kthnxbye, we're both town, and we're pushing scum. 'Kay? Got that?
We can save Jake for tomorrow. Deal? Put it aside for one phase, and it'll be sorted out.

[mastin2]

AngryPidgeon: 3 (Jake from State Farm, zipperflesh, kthxbye)

Yup, kthnxbye is scum.

Jake can wait.


Yes, I'm heavily considering him for scum, partially for the claim. I mighta seen a commuter in my 100-game career, but I certainly have no memory of it; every time I've witnessed it, it's been a scum fakeclaim.

But I do have something in common with Jake: I'm not too keen on lynching a PR claim today. Yes, it's day two rather than day one, but 'cause we're already down one PR thanks to day one, I'd rather avoid the risk of lynching two in a row, considering a mini normal typically only has 3-4.

Day three. Trust me.
Yes, I'll keep on spouting that line until you damn idiots listen to me; when I say you should trust me, I mean you should trust me. AP's town, and Jake shouldn't be lynched today.

[mastin2]

By the way,

sorry Jake I don't mean to ride your jock or whatever,
but I can understand why someone would think AP was sk instead of scum.
It just doesn't seem like scum could force themselves to be that enthused about scumhunting.
Although I do not know APs scum meta and if he is capable of this enthusiasm as scum, it just seems unlikely.

Posts like this have pretty much bumped kush up to townread #2.

But AP's still town, and will continue to be town, and I'd rather lynch myself than lynch AP 'cause he's just. that. damn. town.

Pushing me as scum meaning he's derping?
Heck yes.

But still town.

Again, the drive for his lynch is retarded from the town members on it. AP's the most town player in the game right now. When he settles down, thinks things through, and realizes that I'm not scum (seriously, AP, we might as well be masons if you stop yer dang attacks on me), he'll become one of the most dangerous scumhunters in the game.

[mastin2]

mastin, you realize I won't be alive come day 3 right?

...


Must. show. restraint.

Jake. You claimed x-shot commuter. Unless x = 1, you have another shot.

You not being alive on day three is about as close to a scumclaim as you can get.



But seriously. For a single game phase, I'm willing to give you the benefit of the doubt.
AP is not scum, and for today at least, I want to trust you not to be.

You're barking up the wrong tree with AP. If ever there was a game to show AP as town, this would be it; this is him in his purest form.
And if you want something without meta, you can look at how his reads have evolved. His mindset during the game. He's been pushing things logically, he's been changing his reads dynamically, he's been making the reads fit the evidence and not the other way around (as you are), he's been consistently calling out good reads, he's been consistently posting solid reasoning with an easily-followed train of thought...all-in-all, his posts are just about the towniest they could possibly be.

He is not scum.

So gods help me, if you're town, STOP. CONFIRMATION. BIASING. HIM. Step away. Breathe. Come back, clean slate, blank mind. Look again.

He. is. town.
Now help me lynch scum.

Hint: it's not me.

[mastin2]

SO LET'S RUN THROUGH THINGS AGAIN.

1. zipperflesh
^In the suspect pool for the AP push alone, but probably not a good lynch today. We can come back to him another time.

2. Cybertronix
^Cyber's posting started out weak, but it's gotten stronger and stronger as the game has progressed. He's been raising good points and has shown a clear town train of thought. His stances have been strong, and his posts have been transparent. Add to that, he has a town tone to his posts; his way of negotiating with others feels incredibly natural.

3. mastin2 (replacing Leonshade)
^One of few voices of reason at the moment. Seriously, if ever there was a time to listen to me, now would be it.

4. Thor665
^Ambivalent. Not a day two lynch for that alone.

5. kushm4sta
^Townread #2. His posts are confident, but not arrogant. He shows a level of comfort in this game. This is a strong towntell for someone claiming to strongly prefer to be town (especially a newb), since it shows that he's in his element. He's been open and transparent, very willing to explain himself, and even offering up a broadcast of his strategy as scum--a bold move for anyone actually scum, but quite natural as town. In general, I find it easy to sync with his thoughts and I can see where he's coming from more often than not.

6. MaverickMaestro
^You mighta noticed I kinda stopped mentioning him in public. In my QT*, though, it's a different story. Quite frankly, I was hoping to apply pressure to him by day three, but I didn't want to do so while I still had strong leads in kthnx/d3x/Thor. Now that my d3x and Thor reads have weakened, he's definitely worth looking in to.

7. qwints (replacing Devourer359)
^Qwints's posts might not be the strongest in the game, but I still feel as if he's town. AP's town #1, kush is town #2, and qwints is definitely in the running for town spot #3. His hammering on Dave, contrary to what anyone else may have claimed, was town in nature and far,

far

too bold for scum, as getting rid of the cop via hammering them and drawing attention to yourself is not worth it; it'd be pretty suicidal, in fact, and ultimately backfire on them. (Yeah, yeah, *insert "WIFOM!" cries here*, which I DGAF about; that term's way too overused.)

8. Jake from State Farm
^While a solid candidate for scum, he's a claimed PR. Give him one damn day, okay?

9. Kthxbye (replacing SafetyDance)
^This should be our lynch today. Safety Dance's posts are some of the worst I've ever seen in my 100-game career, and are about as blatantly obvious newb-scum as you can get. He was showing all the classic signs of scum not knowing what the heck they were doing; he was on the defensive and was trying to scrape by on a mislynch rather than be lynched himself. He showed no initiative, he showed no original thoughts (his posts were largely fluff), and if that wasn't enough, kthnxbye--his replacement--did much the same.

10. d3x
^Like Thor, ambivalent. Unlike Thor, I actually have a lean on him:
Town.

Just gut, mainly, at the moment, and I'll eventually need to get a stronger read on him, but he's not a lynch for today.

11. AngryPidgeon
^Towniest town player of all towns. Seriously, read his posts at any stage in the game. Early, mid (end of day one), late (current). They show the exact same picture, someone who is scumhunting and doesn't give a damn that people find him suspicious. He's not backing down from the things he believes in, nor is he concerned about how people view him when he sees a new piece of evidence which changes his read.

* *insert "Wait, what?!? YOU HAVE A QT?!?" here*



So there. The clear lynch candidate for today is kthnx.

[mastin2]

ap is the correct lynch today.... if he flips sk, jakes role is confirmed.. if he flips mafia., mastin. is con-scum... if he flips town, then. jake is probably scum

Hey, remember my post I just spent something like ten minutes writing, which said that this guy was in the suspect pool?

Yeah, well, triple that right now for this post. Setting up mislynches at its absolute best.



And you know what? Screw being conservative.

Calling it: the scumteam is kthnxbye, zipperflesh, and Maverick.

So let's lynch these bastards now.

[mastin2]

Mastin, what happened to your d3x scumread?

He did a

damn

good job of convincing me I was wrong. Do I have him as a strong townread, no; he's just above null. But his explanation really made me feel as if I might be wrong on him. (Gut, mainly.)

Why is MM scum?

Maverick is basically Cyber's opposite--
As Cyber's play got stronger throughout the game, Maverick's play has been getting weaker. He's by far my weakest scumread, but he's still there. It's primarily gut and POE, since if he's not scum, there aren't really many other options available.

And trust me, AP, I'm town this game.

Spoiler: long ramble on why

Believe it or not, there

is

a difference in my scumplay; it's just not something which will be obvious. It's how prepared I am for the game. As scum, replacing in during the night, I'm caught off-guard. I don't really offer to replace in unless I'm expecting to get a town PM. So in the rare instances where it happens, I have to coordinate with my scumbuddies during the night with how I'm going to act. Scumplay from me is NOT natural, 'specially given that I recently came back from a vacation. (And, again, my scum record is abysmally bad; in 100 or so games, only four scum wins.)

And this shows, since I tend to immediately open the day with reads.

As town replacing in during the night, I try not to get invested in the game, and the nightkill of the other replacement shows exactly why: because there is a SIGNIFICANT chance that I'm going to die, and I don't want to have all my effort go down the drain.

So I go in blind. I wait for day, see it dawn, with me alive, and start posting off of what I see.

Basically, it's the difference between having reads in advance and replacing in with nothing.

[mastin2]

1: im suspicious because i want to lynch someone you claim to know is town, but offer. us no solid. proof?

Yes, you're suspicious for lynching someone who is town.
I've offered just about as much proof as I can at this point. I've painted the picture, I've explained my stances, and I'm as sure as I can ever be that AP is town--absolutely totally 100%.

So anyone pushing him as scum gets my attention.

11: if you consider not backing down means doing 180s every chance you get... also. every post of aps shows. a completely. different picture from the last one.... how do you, i don't even ...

"Not backing down" and "Constantly-evolving reads"--much as they may appear to--are not mutually exclusive.

When dealing with something he believes in, he won't back down...until he sees something which makes him realize he was probably wrong, at which time he will.

This is solid town play. And beyond that, it's not just something which is a part of AP's play every game.
What little scum meta he has shows that this isn't how he plays as scum.

He constantly evolves his reads, making them fit the evidence rather than morphing the evidence to fit the read.
But when he gets a read, he'll not back down from it 'til he sees something strongly suggesting he was wrong.

Really, that's pretty much the towniest town way to play you can get.

[mastin2]

AP, it's more than just lurking. The content in his posts got weaker. It contained less and less stuff.

But your first post of the game you definitely have established reads in advanced

Nah. I didn't have any reads 'til I logged in to go to the thread. I had no clue who was even in the game when I replaced in. But I knew AP was town immediately. Why? 'Cause I'm awesome, that's why.
That post was typed as I was reading. 19 and onwards. When I got caught up, I posted, then began to launch inquiries. While waiting for answers, I created my personal QT and began reading, dumping my notes in there as I went. I had nothing in advance, nothing before I logged in on Monday.

[mastin2]

Less and less stuff in each post.

So I guess it is lurking, but of the active sub-type.
It's more than lurking; it's active lurking as well.

And, yeah, I realize it's weak; I said as much, no?

[mastin2]

Jake, I believe you to be town.

Threatening to modkill yourself--while incredibly stupid--is the special kind of stupid that can only come from town.

But I'm telling you, lynching AP is just as stupid (if not moreso) as your threat.

So lynch kthnx.

[mastin2]

Who are you, Benmage?

Get your arrogant head out of your ass.

AP is town. Period. End of discussion.

If you think I'm scum for saying that, fine, go pressure me. But we're not lynching AP today. Not now, not ever.

[mastin2]

No.

You're town, AP's more town, this whole back-and-forth between you is worthless, and it's distracting from actual scumhunting, but it's still town.

So I'm not going to lynch you, nor will I ever lynch AP.

We're lynching someone else, preferably kthnx.

[mastin2]

Also I've see MM's name at the bottom at least twice today. MM is probably lurker scum.

I'm inclined to agree.

[mastin2]

Time for diplomacy.

Vote Count #8

kthxbye:

3 (AngryPidgeon, mastin2, qwints)

AngryPidgeon:

3 (Jake from State Farm, zipperflesh, kthxbye)

zipperflesh:

2 (Thor665, Cybertronix)

kushm4sta:

1 (MaverickMaestro)

mastin2:

1 (d3x)

Not Voting:

1 (kushm4sta)

AP and qwints:

I'm voting with you since I think that kthx is the right lynch for today, but if another one of the current lynches were viable, would you switch?

Thor and Cyber:

You're on the second-most-likely lynch for today, but I want to know how willing you are to wagon kthx.

Maverick:

Where are ya? Remind me why you're voting kush, again? And who else would you support the lynch of?

d3x:

I'm town. It'll become more and more obvious with time that I am, so you won't even have to take my word for it. At the moment, though, you'll just have to trust that I am.

So that said, how willing are you to switch to kthnx? What would it take?
And if not kthnx, who else would you switch to?

Kush:

Why aren't you voting?

[mastin2]

When I die and flip town, will an AP lynch happen next?

Never.

(And AP, I'd be surprised if it's under 90% of my posts. 60% is way too small. )

[mastin2]

'Cause I'm impulsive, I crunched the numbers, and surprised I am!
It's only 33/53, which is 62.264150943396226415094339622642%.

Guess I need to step it up a lot.
By the time I'm dead, it should be over 90. Like here!

[mastin2]

How do you know Mastin read Thirsty souls mafia?

'Cause I've said so?

Not all of it, mind you, but I skimmed it; it was an interesting game to watch.

(I watch almost every single Mini Normal, 'specially ones which have at least one night finished, since I find 'em fun to read.)

[mastin2]

D'oh!
That post didn't directly say AP was town! (Even though it was implied.)

[mastin2]

Don't think I've directly said it, but I implied it multiple times. Like here.

What little scum meta he has shows that this isn't how he plays as scum.

[mastin2]

AP, I don't see qwints as scum, given his posts, but I'm not going to put him on the "never lynch" list and am willing to hear a case on him.

So long as said case does not include any "Mastin is scum", since I'm not, you're not, and I value your input quite a lot.

[mastin2]

P-P-edit: no hes scum independent of you.

Then show me.

[mastin2]

Dang it, forgot to say it again!
AP's town.

[mastin2]

im not voting yet because i haven't had time to read the last 10 or so pages closely.

Alright, fair 'nuff, but within the next 24 hours, I want a vote from ya.

And not on AP (who is town) nor Jake (who is prob-town).

[mastin2]

Hmm, will have to digest that case of yours, AP. I'm pretty much about to leave, so I don't really have the time to think of it.
Some of it looks good, but other parts of it look like they're actually towntells rather than scumtells, and other parts don't really seem to match my memory (to me the wall post he had was actually drawing some good conclusions for instance), hence why I'll need to give it a few seconds' thought.

(Oh. And AP's still town. )

[mastin2]

Jake, if my 'more later' wsa a hint at a vig claim, and you gave me an out for the claim, why the HELL did I snap-claim VT?

:valid:

/leaves.

[mastin2]

Looks like I have three and a half pages to read, but overnight, I thought of a couple things.

qwints:

You made a PbP for AP's play during the AP-Jake exchange, but you didn't make one for Jake's play during that same exchange--why?

Thor:

You mention that you had already guessed that Jake was Benmage, but you certainly haven't done so in this thread; I checked. Where did you?
/needs to read 34-37.

[mastin2]

Errrr. by kicking up dirt I mean he is hand-waving away all of qwints assumptions and how awkward they are.

Qwints: Its ok for Mastin to think you are so town because he read thirst souls.

Me: Ok Mastin what do you think about that

Mastin: Well OF COURSE I read thirsty souls.

Does anybody not see the disconnect there? Its super obvious.

AP, I said I needed to digest the case. Not that I was rejecting it. As I said, you made some good points in the case. I was actually already something like fifteen minutes late leaving, so I was on MS overtime when you posted the case. Not enough time to really think about it.

Because some of the points you made also implied to me the opposite, that they were town moves not scum moves, and others which didn't seem to match.
Again, when I've caught up everywhere, I'll give the case another read, and I'll check it out myself to get my own opinion on it.

And, please, stop saying I'm scum. I'm town. >.> You're town, I'm town, skip the walls saying otherwise and get along with me, 'kay?

[mastin2]

This is actually ridiculous. Jake is so obviously scum that I cannot believe Im actually having to convince people of it rather than convince people to vote mafia over the claimed SK

Like I've been saying. We can save Jake for tomorrow.

I'm town, you're town, Jake's not a lynch for today, so the whole debate it worthless.

Focus elsewhere. I don't mind the focus on qwints, considering I'm re-evaluating my read on him, 'cause guess what, AP?

I trust you. I value your reads, I value your insight, and you bring up multiple good points.

[mastin2]

AP and Jake: I think you are both annoying the shit out of everyone right now with your back and forth BS... How bout you shut the hell up and quit making the same arguments over and over again. Let the people who don't post every 2 seconds read the cases and ask questions if they have any.

On that note...

At this point, if either one of you is town, do you think the last 4 pages are more helpful to uncovering the truth or more detrimental to town? (try and answer without pointing fingers) If helpful, name the key point you think you have made in the last 2 pages that you didn't make in the 4 before that (ie. what within pages 34 and 35 did you say that is very important to your case against the other that you hadn't already made a post about in pages 30-33)?

Jake: Is AP more likely scum or SK? If scum, who are his buddies and why (what links him to them)?

AP: Is Jake more likely scum, SK, or commuter? If scum, who are his buddies and why? If SK, why this over scum?

@everyone: Why do you think Maston is so sure that AP is town?

This is a whole lotta nothing. He's parotting and active lurking here, trying to look town but doing nothing actually productive.

The most productive thing in this post is the last line, and even that is not even close to good.
(Oh, and the reason why I'm so sure AP is town is because--guess what?--he is!)

[mastin2]

Also, kush just blew pretty much aaaaaaaaaaall of his towncred with that vote.

He just dropped from #2 town to mid-tier scum from that alone.

The AP wagon is scumdriven, plain and simple.

AP is town, and anyone saying otherwise is either an idiot (Jake) or scum.

[mastin2]

To the extent it means anything, it points towards town.
Conclusion, I like this as a lynch- especially given that people have seen him repeatedly reading the forum without posting.
UNVOTE: kthxbye
VOTE: MaverickMaestro

AP, you're a scumhunting god.

Qwits and ktnxbye are scum.

Who's the third, I dunno, but you're on the right track. (It's not me. I swear, okay?)

"Points towards town" and "like this lynch" are mutually exclusive.

Furthermore, he unvotes kthnx (who we've been pressuring for a lynch) to go onto Maverick (where interest in a lynch has formed).

Yeah.

[mastin2]

AngryPidgeon: 4 (Jake from State Farm, zipperflesh, kthxbye, kushm4sta)

At this stage, Jake is probably either dumb town or third party, since him being a Mafia BP violates both occam's razor and general setup design. (BP mafia gives the mafia knowledge that there is another killing role in the game--that's fine for a Large game, but is pretty much unheard of in a Mini.)

But between {zipper, kthnx, kush}, there's pretty much going to be guaranteed two scum. Now, *I* think that it's zipper and kthnx (DEFINITELY kthnx), but AP, I can hear an argument against kush.

The third is, of course, qwints, who is scum trying to distance from a scumbuddy while simultaneously trying to keep said scumbuddy from being lynched.

[mastin2]

Mastin, read the whole post. That's a stupid misrep.

Oh, really?

Do explain.

The whole post you were saying he looked town. THE WHOLE DAMN POST.
And then, at the end, "He's a good lynch".

Yeah.


Also, this post showing willingness to vote kush makes me again think the third is zipper.

AP, thoughts? Could use your feedback. (Given as you're town.)

[mastin2]

fuck where did the ap wagon go?

Back to the hell which spawned it.

kthnx, post more like you're posting now. You have my attention.

[mastin2]

@mastin have you ever been wrong when you said something is 100% correct?
is your scum play really bad and obvious?

100%? Don't think so; probably not. But something like 95 or even 98%, yeah, have been wrong quite a lot.

And, yes, my scum play is both really bad and painfully obvious.


Hey, AP, what do you think of the kthnx-d3x banter going on right now?

[mastin2]

If you're really buddying me, you'd also be voting kythx.

[mastin2]

out of the active players im seeing qwints, d3x, and kthx as the possible scum.

Then vote kthx. He's in no danger of being lynched at the moment, so there's no reason for you not to vote him.

[mastin2]

L-1, right?

Yup.

[mastin2]

I see four new pages after 39.
I see a vig claim on 39.

Vote: qwints.

'Til I read those four pages.

[mastin2]

I have seen mastin much better.

Admittedly, since my return, I've not been in top-form.

Arrogance has lead me to

believe

I have been, but evidence has shown that I'm not.

I get stronger the later into a game I replace in, and it often is just flipping a switch. One moment, I'm way off my base and am pushing the wrong scumteam, the next it just clicks into place and I've nailed them all. (1377.) Now, kthnx's claim removes any possibility of him being mafia, and I can buy him being a vig.

I am a bit worried about his claim compared to yours, though.

Still readin', still need a new scumteam.

[mastin2]

mastin wrote articles about how to play properly so he definitely is self aware of his meta and is probably pretty good at convincing people he is town even when he is not (assumption based of nothing)

The only thing that bugs me about mastin is how sure he is about AP being town, but AP's play hasn't been that Obv town. makes no sense.

You assume wrong.

I actually do have a scum meta since my return now, albeit as a hydra.

Spoiler: This

It's not exactly strong, but it demonstrates why I'm not a good scum player.

Our iso.

ISOs 0, 1, 2, 3, 8, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 19, 20, and 26 are me; the rest are Nacho.
The QT is here.

I relied HEAVILY on Nacho for the latter half of the game, as he was pretty much taking the reigns.

And, yes, AP is obvtown. He's about as obvtown as he ever will be this game.

[mastin2]

The moment they lynched the cop, this game was fucked. If you flip town AP is the only lynch tomorrow.

No.

HECK no.

[mastin2]

And I'd like to emphasize.

DO NOT SHOOT AP OR I WILL TAKE IT AS A SCUMCLAIM.

[mastin2]

Shoot qwints.

[mastin2]

Zipper's another good shot. (Not AP. I repeat--NOT. AP. Never shoot him.)

[mastin2]

1. zipperflesh
^Good shot.

2. Cybertronix
^Bad shot. I'll reread during night, but currently town.

4. Thor665
^Meh-shot. I'll reread during night, but currently null.

5. kushm4sta
^Lynched. Town or scum, results soon.

6. MaverickMaestro
^Decent shot. Scumlean right now, but needs another look for sure.

7. qwints (replacing Devourer359)
^Good shot. Definitely scumlean at the moment.

8. Jake from State Farm
^Not a good shot. I'm not positive on Jake's alignment, but we'll deal with him day three.

10. d3x
^ Bad shot. Pretty nullish and pending reread, but currently townside of null.

11. AngryPidgeon
^Worst shot ever; this guy is town.

[mastin2]

AP, Maverick, Cyber, Qwints, d3x, kthnx.

AP's town, here, and obviously kthnx isn't groupscum.

However, between {Maverick, Cyber, qwints, d3x}, there's probably two scum.
Betting on Maverick and qwints at the moment.

[mastin2]

Dave168: 7 (Cybertronix, Thor665, AngryPidgeon, Kthxbye, k4shmasta, zipperflesh, qwints)
^Crossreferencing here, the common names are {Cyber, AP, kthnx, qwints}.

Now, again, AP's town, and we know kthnx isn't mafia.

So qwints is again highlighted.

[mastin2]

And if I had to call out a scumteam at this exact moment, it'd be qwints-Maverick-zipper if kush flips town. (We'll know soon enough.)

Cyber's worth a look at for potential-scum, even though I doubt he's scum and he's a townread now.

d3x is also definitely worth a look at for potential-scum, but isn't high.
Same for Thor, really.

THIS IS WHY YOU DON'T SPEEDLYNCH.

[mastin2]

And I'd like to emphasize once more, AP is

not

a good shot, and will be considered a scumclaim.

As will shooting me, quite frankly.

[mastin2]

I said it once, I'll say it again.

Shooting either me or AP is a scumclaim. We're both town. I don't care how much you try to paint it as suspicious from me; the fact is that we're both town and anyone saying otherwise is either an idiot or scum.

[mastin2]

I have played with Mastin before in a game where he replaced in, and his play this game is nothing like that one. he was town in that game.

Well, duh. I play differently every game, depending on the circumstances.

But seriously, AP's town. Like me, he gets stronger as the game goes along, and like me, that means he might blow his towncred early, but he does a

damn

good job of earning it back late-game.

[mastin2]

Did an iso of zipper--looks bad. Like, really bad.

And notice that despite having qwints as a scumspect, not a single qwints vote from him; he parks his vote.

[mastin2]

Just a note. I just finished reading the thread, and I probably won't have time to comment on anything today.

Not a good post from qwints's predecessor, either. Why the fear of saying something when reading? (Not sure the wording's the best, but I think you get the idea--suspicious that he had read the thread but didn't want to comment on just some stuff.)

[mastin2]

Qwints's posts are also rather bad.

His vote on zipper smells of weak bussing, which he dropped immediately after that.

His posts seem manipulative as well, with him taking the stance most convenient to him.
It also doesn't quite seem to make sense from a town perspective to me on a quick look.

Also, if zipper's scum (especially scum with qwints), the scum have daytalk.

[mastin2]

Maverick's iso is pretty bad, too; he doesn't even mention most of the playerlist.

[mastin2]

Mastin, I feel like you've had every player in this game as both town and scum without a lot of explanation [except for AP of course.]

Remember all that stuff I said about AP?

Yeah, that's 'cause he and I might as well have a psychic link this game.

Of course I have reversed my reads. It's called not getting confirmation bias. Reads to fit the evidence, not evidence to fit the reads.


This discrediting from you, for instance, is scum motivated.

[mastin2]

Also, showing a reversal in reads when the gap between posts you use as evidence is 200 posts shows why it's not very valid--do you know how much can happen in 200 posts? (Especially since all it can take is one unexpected post to

drastically

alter the flow of the game.)

Enough to reverse my reads on just about anyone. (Except AP. )

[mastin2]

Quicktopic. Stopped using it, so there was no record of me changing my mind and thinking it was kthnx, thanks to vacation and the browser I have it in being frozen and me being to lazy to restart it.

Butyeah, was pretty much only loosely following the game on the last two days. I imagine it was quite an intense game for those actually in it, but for me, it felt monotonous and therefore boring to watch.

My second investigation (which I 'crumbed preeeeetty hard) was on Jake, by the way. Figured he was as good a shot as any.

And, yeah. I was a liiiiiittle too blatant with that AP-inno result I had. (Wouldn't have been a problem if Jake hadn't gone ballistic on AP. >_< Seriously, before that, my mentions of AP being town were reasonable and within logic to be just a normal read. After that, Jake forced me to defend him.) And the most blatant deputy 'crumb in the history of deputy 'crumbs.

Hi, guys. Mastin, here. Looks like you guys went and derped by lynching the cop day one, but have no fears! I am here! With me in the game, you might as well have a cop still.

[mastin2]

Overall, I'd rate this game as solidly mediocre, with a slight positive lean. Was on the wrong track with Thor, d3x, and qwints, but I had the right read on zipper for longer than I had it wrong, I only gave kthnx the pass based on his claim, and had Cyber on null and nullscum quite a lot.

Far, far, FAR from a good game (I'd be the first to admit that the above description is a little overly generous of my play ), but at least decent.

By the way, might as well share with ya my PMs.

Night will extend until I find the remaining 2 replacements.

If you're okay with me being V/LA over the weekends (and that during the holidays--so until 2013--I'll have slightly reduced access*), I wouldn't mind helping ya out.

Though that said, I'd have a significant chance of ending up dead anyway, but hey, that's helpful too.

*You know, average of one or two posts a day rather than ten...

That's easy.

Investigate: AP

.

Guy's a great asset if town, but if scum, I need to know it now.

To know the circumstances of this, I had received this PM 15 minutes after I was planning to leave; I had one chance to check MS.net before I left for the week and decided to take it. And received the cop PM. When I was supposed to leave 15 minutes before then. So I jumped to the page of the lynch, having NO clue who was

even in the game

, and saw AP as one of the players. I figured, "eh, sure, why not?" and got a result which (for the first half of d2) I thought I wasted, but (for the second half of d2) I was extremely glad I had.

[mastin2]

P.S. I can't believe you cretins thought there was any chance kthx would retain his shots if he got blocked. For shame.

Actually, this IS how I deal with roleblocks.

Roleblocks stop the action from happening. The doctor never showed up to save the person, the jailkeeper never locked a person up, the vigilante never used their shot, the cop never investigated their target, and so on, because before they do so, the roleblocker stops them.

The roleblocker doesn't magically make the doctor's medkit fail, doesn't magically give the locked up person a key which leaves their cell vulnerable, doesn't magically grab the bullet from the vigilante after it's been used, doesn't magically destroy the cop's evidence before he's analyzed it, and so on.

If you want a non-flavor reason, NAR as I interpret it means the roleblock happens before the action--and therefore the action never happens. And if the action never happens, the shot is never used. Hence, it is refunded.

...Though this is a topic for MD.

[mastin2]

Roleblocks stop the action from happening. The doctor never showed up to save the person, the jailkeeper never locked a person up, the vigilante never used their shot, the cop never investigated their target, and so on, because before they do so, the roleblocker stops them.

If someone is roleblocked and tracked, would you tell the tracker who they tried to target?

Trackers, like a cop, would receive "no result", which is different from "x visited nobody" (or however the heck I'd word their target going nowhere), so they could tell just as easily as a cop that they had been roleblocked.

Edit:

Oh, just realized what you meant.

If someone is roleblocked and tracked, NAR applies--since the block happens before the track, that means that stopping the person from performing their action happens before the tracker would see them attempting it. (Or in flavor terms...again, the roleblocker stops them from performing the action, and isn't magically sabotaging their action to fail immediately after it's attempted.)

In other words, the tracker sees the roleblocked person visit nobody, since they (when roleblocked) never actually did.

[mastin2]

...Though that said, it kinda depends on the wording in the RB's PM.

If their PM says they cause an action to fail, it implies the action is attempted, but has a 0% success rate.
If their PM says they stop/block the action, it implies the action never happens.