Mini 1407 (Game Over)

[DeasVail]

Hi.

I'll read a bit soon.

[DeasVail]

Sup DV!

Question for you before you read D2: Is it at all possible for a Tracker, 1-Shot Watcher, 1-Shot Cop, and a Jailkeeper to all exist as town PRs in a balanced setup?

Looks like I've got a lot to look forward to... (I'm on Page 7 right now)

It doesn't seem too absurd to me, although JK + Tracker isn't something I'd like in a closed set-up as it really punishes scum if they lose 2 members early. Also, it doesn't look very realistic as a set-up (1-Shot Watcher is a bit weird if you're the kind of mod to put a full tracker). I'm not very good balance-wise though so maybe I missing something.

[DeasVail]

Also hi.

[DeasVail]

Have people claimed these roles? If so telling me would be pretty good.

[DeasVail]

Ok, got it.

Also, did you read your slot before you replaced in?

[DeasVail]

Oh his replace out post ruins everything!

[DeasVail]

Seriously, I'm up to page 8 with a tab open of a post of my 'most important notes' as I'm reading through, and it's just me talking about how scummy Ice is.

[DeasVail]

Yeah, that was pretty great.

Anyway, I'm sorry that I haven't read up to Day 2 yet, but I'm stopping for now. I'll probably be busy tomorrow so I don't know how much I'll get done, but I should be able to squeeze some in.

[DeasVail]

Wait, why would anyone JK a tracker claim if not to possibly protect it from death?

[DeasVail]

Thanks Lincolm. That answer just doesn't sound like a good reason to track someone.

[DeasVail]

*to JK a tracker

[DeasVail]

Regarding Junpei and Night 1 kill, I don't see why Junpei suspecting chkflip makes him less likely to kill him as scum. It could even be more. Maybe killing a VT is something Junpei would be likely to avoid as scum though. I don't know.

Ok, I'm sorry, but the walls are too much for me to take right now. I am only a couple of pages away from the end (up to 25 or 26 or something) and I'm pretty sure I'll want to lynch Thunder. There are a lot of things I'm not sure about alignment-wise, but I think his play aside from the claim is scummy.

[DeasVail]

Oh, and my plan right now is to read over things again, but I don't see myself supporting a different lynch today at this stage.

[DeasVail]

Not yet.

[DeasVail]

Ok reading over him, I'll likely be happy with his lynch. Do people actually want me to post what I think is scummy about him or should I not bother?

I've already typed some stuff up as I was thinking it for my own benefit so it wouldn't be a huge burden for me, but I'm not sure if there's much point.

Also, I'm still finishing off his ISO, but I'm thinking I'll likely hammer at some point if no one else does (although Lincolm, I know you don't want a hammer yet, so I'll wait).

[DeasVail]

By the way DV, I know you mod some games, so I prefer ask you this. If jailkeeper jail someone, then cop investigate the jailkeeper's target, do you give cop a result or not?

Most of the time, the cop would get a result.

Sometimes the cop would not get a result, but the Jailkeeper might have a different name in this case to show that it is different.

ThunderHog has also said that his role does not stop the cop from getting a result.

PEdit: I would not do what Voided did there as a Newbie Mod, so I don't think that is a reason to use against ThunderHog.

[DeasVail]

Basically there are two versions of Jailkeeper and I use the one which ThunderHog is claiming to be. I think that is also the most common, but I may be wrong.

[DeasVail]

This is what I wrote as I read through Thunder's ISO. I'm sorry if it's difficult to understand.

Although I do find him scummy, I'm not sure how likely the JK claim in response to Denis' gambit thing is to come from scum. In another situation it would maybe be a decent towntell, but ThunderHog's posts are just really strange.

Actually doing analysis on denis when he thinks he's been caught out lying just seems excessive and like an attempt to look town. Even calling out Lincolm as a scumbuddy based on one post doesn't match with the walls of analysis he does at other times. And keeping his vote on Denis after Rob's cop result is just hard to understand from either alignment.

I think the attack on projectmatt 543 is fake. It's basically thinking he's scum for saying something bad.

Later:

"To actually go on the record and say that his behavior was "extremely town" is downright insulting and you should be embarrassed."

Vote is still on PMatt. Hmmm...

Suspicion on Rob isn't good at all, especially considering his previous townread and the fact that it comes at a time when it looks like people may suspect him.

Generally too much arguing, not enough scumhunting, 587 is bad especially because I don't think he's really determined reads on players.

602 is too concerned with providing original content. I think town would be less likely to ignore PMatt's points.

He says there has to be at least one mafia in the PR lineup. I don't see much good reason for this.

The reaction test is pretty eh.

"the reason that I didn't unvote right away after said claim was that I really didn't want to believe it as it made me feel angry about Denis forcing me to reveal myself and claim against him."

^Speaks for itself I think.

[DeasVail]

Also, it's unfinished as I was mainly skimming towards the end. I may look more closely tomorrow, but I might not as I'm pretty sure I want to lynch him. We'll see.

[DeasVail]

I am here, but I want to read over things.

Also, I'm hesitant to call Rob scum because of how well his play at the start of Day 2 fits his claim, but this may change. I agree with Mew/Junpei as possible scum at a glance. I'm also tempted to call fitz possible scum from memory of his play day 2, but I agree that implosion was townish.

[DeasVail]

Based on denis's play earlier in the game, I thought he may be lying as town. He seemed like

that guy.

I later voted because his response made me think he hadn't performed a gambit. I was evidently wrong. He is, in fact,

that guy.

@The Rob Haters: What do you think of the above?

[DeasVail]

Empire, a reason for the townread on the Fitz slot would be much appreciated if possible.

Please do not self-hammer. :/

Why did you say this if you thought Thunder was scum?

[DeasVail]

Lincolm, I would have assumed that the JK was the basic version as well.

The post I quote in 740 is where Rob basically says that Denis is town.

Oh Rob, your attack on Lincolm is making me think you're scum.

I don't really buy Mew's explanation, but it's possible I guess.

[DeasVail]

I think that Lincolm's point is this:

He himself was unsure which version of JK ThunderHog was. If he was the 'alien' version, then he was a confirmed liar because people got results on him. He thinks that Rob seemingly knowing that Thunder was a normal JK is a sign that Rob knew Thunder was town.

That's what I think it is at least, and although I don't think I agree, I am considering Rob as scum.

[DeasVail]

Do you want me to vote for you?

[DeasVail]

I don't see what that has to do with me voting for you?

I mean, considering that you're the main wagon or whatever, a vote for you means that I want to lynch you.

Maybe you're trying to look really town by doing the whole 'scum wouldn't discourage people from staying OFF the wagon'. I don't know, but this is just really weird if you're town.

[DeasVail]

I'm considering you as scum, but I'm still thinking about it and I don't want to lynch you yet.

[DeasVail]

Sorry if this has already been answered, but does anyone have an explanation for the below quote with Rob being scum?

Based on denis's play earlier in the game, I thought he may be lying as town. He seemed like

that guy.

I later voted because his response made me think he hadn't performed a gambit. I was evidently wrong. He is, in fact,

that guy.

[DeasVail]

Oh it's frowned upon, but I'd expect town to be more likely thinking about whether or not Thunder is scum, not "if he's scum he might self-hammer so I'll tell him not to" especially since he wouldn't listen to you if he was scum.

[DeasVail]

The thing is, I think it's possible that it comes from town, but I think it's a weird thing for town to say to someone who they just put to L-1 and intend to lynch.

[DeasVail]

Empire, if you could convince me of the fitz slot being town when you have the time, that would be awesome.

Also, to those interested in a Rob lynch, I am a potential ally! All you have to do is convince me that Rob is scum!

[DeasVail]

And no I'm not scumbuddies with Rob (however often when I make a post I have to double-check that with myself because sometimes it really sounds like it)

[DeasVail]

I'll say again that it would really help if one of the Rob-wagon supporters could tell me why Rob basically saying that denis was town at D2 start doesn't come from someone with a cop result.

Otherwise, I'm looking at Mew maybe or Fitz (although I agree with Empire that Implosion was townish). Junpei replacement I'm looking forward to.

[DeasVail]

Sorry about the prod CD.

[DeasVail]

My attempt to lurk as much as I could without a prod didn't work!

[DeasVail]

There's unlikely to be a godfather if it's only a 1-Shot Cop.

[DeasVail]

Rephrase since it was bad wording anyway: If you're a 1-Shot Cop and there is no other cop in the set-up it is pretty safe to assume your result is reliable.

[DeasVail]

Part of it is that others are townreads. Part of it is that I find you slightly scummy and nothing about you has made me think town.

If I want to push your lynch I will go further, but I really want to sort out my Rob read right now, and I really want the people who think he's scum to give me a reason I can accept for scum looking so much like a cop.

[DeasVail]

Is there a reason why rob hasn't been lynched yet?

Yeah, I don't get why you haven't tried to convince me considering I've basically been screaming "I might end up sheeping you!" over and over.

[DeasVail]

Right now I'm thinking that Mew is scummy, but this is something I'll look further into now and get back to you on.

First though, let's talk about Rob.

I'm a bit annoyed because I could see him as scum and his attack on Lincolm in particularly felt really off to me both considering my experience with Rob in other games and the fact that it's Lincolm that he apparently thought was scum.

However, when I knew that he had claimed 1-shot cop and I saw 490. Compared to the previous day where, if I recall correctly, Rob's opinion was something like "Denis is not playing to his win con whether town or scum, but I think he very well could be scum", 490 leaves no possibility for Denis to be scum. Rob says that he thought Denis could be lying town, which would make him 'that guy'. And then says without reservation that Denis is 'that guy'. Does Rob think he could be scum anymore? Obviously not.

Now I don't think it's that likely that Rob could have been planning to claim cop at that stage, so despite his claim being forced by Lincolm's watch, I think that the above supports it. However, a possibility has occurred to me that he is a role cop and found out Denis was actually a tracker and decided to back off. I don't know if this is what happened. I don't think it's

that

likely that Rob-scum is a role cop who would act that way as scum in that situation, but it is possible. What really annoys me though, is that apart from Lincolm, no one really has attempted to help me explain this or even really shown that they care about the possibility that Rob is in fact a town 1-Shot Cop. Bub is an example, saying that people should lynch Bub, but doing nothing to actually make it happen, when I've made pretty clear in my posts what would most likely get me to lynch Rob. Lincolm's main points are not real olynes I agree with, even though I'm not at all sure that Rob is town.

Anyway, I'm going to move on now. Unless someone convinces me otherwise, I'm going to deal with Rob later. I think I may be able to push something on Mew. I'll get back to you on this soon.

[DeasVail]

Please forgive me for any mistakes in the above post (I can see at least one).

Anyway, Mew:

I think I'll work backwards actually because it's most recently that I've seen things I consider to be scummy.

So, first off, I want to talk about the most recent post of his, 867. This, I think is scummy because it's the kind of thing scum would totally say. He's being helpful, he's being nice, he's being pro-town. It ticks all the boxes that scum are thinking of when making a post, but are town really

that

eager to explain away a scumread on them? I think that as scum there's a real eagerness to look town, to make sure no one thinks your scum, to be able to address the points made against you. This is what I'm seeing in that post of Mew's, when I don't think town (who is not in much danger of lynch) would be concerned with addressing points against their predecessor.

842 is not as unlikely from town, but still shows concern with being considered plausible scum, which I think is more likely to come from scum than town.

I'll say right now that I could definitely see Mew-scum with Rob-town and I'm not as sure about Mew being scum if Rob is scum.

The "please don't self-hammer" thing is something I still find scummy, although I admit is possible from town.

Vote: Master Mew

for now.

I still want to finalize my reads on everyone else (a lot of them are pretty weak), but nothing anyone else has done has really felt as much like scum to me as Mew's posts, so that's where I'm going for now.

[DeasVail]

Also, I don't find much that's very town about him, but the most town thing would probably be the vote on PMatt. That's the thing that comes closest to making me question my read anyway.

[DeasVail]

Haven't read #869 or on yet, but I wanted to point out a hole in your logic DV regarding the possibility of me being a role cop.

You claim that it's possible that I would back off of claimed PRs as scum. That's not something I would do, but you can't know that, so we'll just use this game as an example. If I were scum and likely to back off of claimed PRs, I wouldn't have pushed Thunder's lynch. If I were scum and not likely to back off of claimed PRs, then I wouldn't have backed off of Denis if I had found out he were truly a tracker through a scum PR role. Unless I'm playing extremely randomly for no apparent reason (and I think that my meta shows very well that I'm pretty methodical as both alignments - I think things through), then I'm not scum.

Well yeah, I know it's not very likely, I'm just trying to see why as scum you'd pretend to suddenly think that denis is town.

(And obviously people think you're scum)

[DeasVail]

You didn't really point out anything, other than the self-hammer thing, that you found scummy about my posts - you literally called me out for being pro-town.

No, it's because you're very concerned about scumreads of you and are more eager to address suspicion on you than I'd expect from town, and this is what I'd expect from scum.

How do you think you'd be playing differently as scum?

[DeasVail]

And by pro-town, I mean helpful to the town, not town motivated.

[DeasVail]

Hmm, but Mew is not close to being lynched and his play reminds me of my own as newb-scum. I could see it from town, but I don't really find anyone else that scummy right now.

[DeasVail]

Rob, have you seen newbtown act like that before?

[DeasVail]

I don't completely agree and still consider Mew scummy, but I know I could easily be wrong here. When I get the chance, I will look again at everyone else.

[DeasVail]

Bub is a weak townread.

PMatt is a slightly weaker townread.

I remember ISOing Junpei and thinking he was kind of null (I think I might have thought slightly town) and N hasn't made much of an impression either way so far.

Fitz I still need to look at, but based on what I remember of his posts, it's that Fitz is scummy, but Implosion was townish. (I think Implosion had a rant about something at some point which I didn't think he would care about as scum). However, Fitz's play in relation to ThunderHog seems from memory like it may have been scum knowing he was town.

[DeasVail]

Here's the implosion post (there may have been other things that contributed to my townread, but this is what I remember from replacing in):

Spoiler: Theory rant (directed at ICE)

I've always hated the reasoning "this fight is not TvT." It isn't scummy per se, but I don't think that it is logically possible to justify the position that a fight between two players is not TvT without explicitly scumreading one or both players. Not to say that ICE hasn't - but think about it this way. The fight between matt and chk consists of two sets of interactions - matt's actions towards chk, and chk's towards matt. If matt is town, then his interactions towards chk are going to be the same whether chk is town or scum - thus, it is impossible to distinguish between mattTown-chkTown and mattTown-chkScum

based only on their interactions.

Likewise, it is impossible to distinguish between mattTown-chkTown and mattScum-chkTown. Ergo, the only situation that can be distinguished from TvT

solely based on their interactions

is SvS - that is to say that their interactions

as a whole

cannot be used as a tell that would rule out TvT. It would be a legitimate argument to say "matt's actions towards chkflip look like scum -> town to me" or "chk's actions towards matt look like scum -> town to me", but to say "this fight doesn't look like TvT to me" without specifying how exactly it isn't TvT is just bullshit. Townies do it, which is sad, but it's a stupid argument - it's one of those things which is usually based entirely on gut without anything to back it up logically. Gut is fine, but it has to have some (at least vague or tenuous) basis in logic.

chk looks townier than he did after the fight with projectmatt - specifically, i think I'm just misconstruing bad play as scummy. Posts 109/111 look like town that is genuinely annoyed that they're being attacked.

Unvote

VOTE: denisatp

I think there's a good chance that his lurking is scum-motivated. My gut is saying that projectmatt is town (and that chkflip is town), which would make all of the leading wagons be on town, and I think that denis may just be sitting back and letting the town implode.

Denis scumgame. No posts on Nov 11 or Nov 18. At the time of the day one lynch, he had slightly under 9% of total posts. Day 1 lasted about 11 days.

Denis towngame (first mini normal I found). He posted every single day, and had almost 20% of total posts at the time of the day one lynch. Day 1 lasted about 6 days (which means he could have just lost interest in the first game, but about half of his posts were made before the approximate halfway-point of the day chronologically).

Also note that he made

about

the same number of total posts in those two games - they were just spread out over about twice as long a period of time in the scumgame.

This is in no way conclusive, but I feel like denis would be the kind of person to strategically lurk as scum in this kind of situation. It could also just be because new years, but I don't find any of the active posters scummy at this point.

This game would be better if the 7/13 players with less than five posts would post more :\.

Regarding Fitz, I thought that there was one point where it seemed Fitz was the only one on Thunder's side, but I can't find it on a quick skim of his ISO. I'll give more in depth thoughts re:fitz when I look at him properly.

[DeasVail]

Oh wow, the deadline is soon. I'll work on this tonight.

[DeasVail]

I'm sorry, but I still feel like Mew is the best option. Rob feels scummy to me, and even the thing that makes me think he's a cop doesn't seem quite right. However, I just don't see why he'd be in "Denis is town" mode otherwise.

Implosion's posts seem like town to me (especially the one I quoted earlier) and although Fitz isn't all that town-looking to me, I think that some of his posts are more extensive than would be expected from scum not under much pressure, and I don't think I find him anymore scummy than when I've seen him as town. So, I'm willing to just go with my implosion read there.

With Bub, a lot of his thoughts were exactly what I was thinking as I was reading through. I think this gives him very mild townpoints at most though. The main thing for me was that the jump onto the Thunder wagon (after previously defending him) came at a time that I think was very unlikely from scum considering that, if I recall correctly, Thunder was very much the likely lynch there.

Junpei, I would probably consider, but I think Mew's play, although possible from town, displays qualities that are more likely from scum. The problem though, is that Rob's defence of him is scummy too, as I think the whole "every newbie is like that" thing is very exaggerated as it's not something that I've seen at all. I could totally see this situation as Rob-scum, Mew-town as well. (I tend to think too obvious to be scumbuddies in these kinds of situations)

Oh, and I forgot about PMatt. My read on him is pretty weak. I guess kind of a combination of gut, HD being scum, and maybe little things in his posts that I don't remember but made me think slight town. I don't actually know what he's like as town though, so my read there is not all that confident.

Empire and Lincolm are too cool for me to post about.

[DeasVail]

I don't actually know what he's like as town though, so my read there is not all that confident.

This should be scum, not town. I've played with PMatt-town.

[DeasVail]

If you have any evidence against me that you don't feel compelled to conclude with some variation of, "though I could see this from Town," I'd like to hear it.

I don't. Are you 100% sure of someone being scum?

[DeasVail]

I don't think I've said that I find you scummy for demanding elaboration. I do find you scummy, but I find it hard explain and it's a small thing. However, everyone else is more town than you and not really that scummy.

[DeasVail]

You don't need something to respond to. I know that scum can almost always explain their actions as being from town, so I'm not going to back down after a response. If I did, I wouldn't be able to lynch anyone.

I guess I'm sorry that I don't really have a solid scumread, but that's how it is right now.

[DeasVail]

Perhaps you could at least explain how everyone in this game looks Townier than me? I'm finding that notion particularly hard to swallow.

I think I've done that to some extent.

[DeasVail]

I'm not opposed to a Rob lynch and will be online before deadline to vote for him if needed, but I'd really like a Mew lynch, so will stay here for now.

[DeasVail]

Um, I don't understand what you're not getting.

Why does everyone have to be obvtown for me to significantly prefer you over them?

I've already said that I think you were way too concerned about suspicion on yourself and having it addressed. This is better than anything I have on anyone else right now (except maybe Rob, but my read on him is complicated), so why shouldn't I really want to lynch you?

[DeasVail]

havingfitz is posturing in post #927 - something to look into after you've finished lynching me.

When you're equal votes with Rob (who actually has one extra supporter in Empire), this just feels like scum trying to towntell.

[DeasVail]

Mew, now that people have explained their position on Rob, what do you think of him?

[DeasVail]

Unvote: Mew

Vote: Rob13

[DeasVail]

Massclaim sounds good to me. I probably won't be able to update my thoughts properly until this weekend though.

[DeasVail]

VT. Back later.

[DeasVail]

Hmmm, I think PMatt still needs to claim.

[DeasVail]

I'm kind of feeling N, but I

still

need to read things properly. Tonight hopefully?

[DeasVail]

Junpei/N + Rob

For:

-The fact that they interact a fair bit, bit never actually bother trying to read each other (this is with Rob being pretty open with both his town and scumreads). *This actually occurs until 544, where Rob reveals a strong townread on Junpei.

-622 is pretty awks.

-Junpei attacking people who vote for Thunder doesn't look too good.

-N votes for Mew and his attempts to read Rob just come across as really lazy. It feels like he's just trying to find a reason for Rob to be town, but at the same time, he doesn't actually push a Mew lynch. All in all, looks exactly like scum that just doesn't know what to do with their partner being the main wagon.

-Comments on flavour feel like an attempt to look town more than anything else.

Against:

-Beginning a wagon on ThunderHog together (531 & [/post=534]534[/post]) with little to no pressure.

~~

This pairing is actually looking pretty likely to me, but I'm going to look at the others.

[DeasVail]

Implosion/Fitz + Rob

For:

-360 doesn't look too good considering the wagons on Rob and HD at the time. (I'm not used to finding so many possible links between scumbuddies )

-So he seems to avoid voting Rob toward the end of Day 3, and the interesting thing is that at one point he sees the reason that he hasn't seen a case to convince him, despite saying earlier that people should form their own reads and not wait for people to convince them. I don't know if the contradiction is scummy though, as town contradict themselves all the time, but I think it adds weight to the theory that he's trying to avoid voting for Rob, BUT considering that he was willing to vote for Rob before, voting Mew at the time he did was really strange, because scum should have been able to predict Rob's death at that stage, so this point is really a big ????

Against:

-Implosion

-Fitz votes for Rob under the impression that a cop can't successfully investigate someone that's been JK'd (524), BUT it does strike me as a little weird that Fitz would be more familiar with that version of JK, so I want to maybe look at past Fitz games, as this could have been staged by scum.

~~

Sorry for being really waffly on this one, but my final thoughts are that Fitz kind of does look scummy with Rob-scum, but I'm thinking the Junpei/N slot is more likely right now.

As always, thoughts would be really appreciated. I will continue with other people at some point too.

[DeasVail]

DV and Mew, what do you think of Breakfast's #195? First impression tells me that Breakfast's early push on Rob reads as distancing that was supposed to be replaced by a more "substantial" vote on a townie and I recall that post coming in when implosion was drawing some heat from Junpei. Also, I don't know if Breakfast would be the kind of player who'd go from voting the scum roleblocker to going and trying to bus another partner.

Basically, I'm leaning towards the Fitz slot being more likely town.

Yep, I can agree with that.

[DeasVail]

Prod dodge. Sorry

[DeasVail]

DV, I want to sheep you. Do you still think Mew is scum? Personally, I think a lot of his scumminess was independent of Rob's but I'm not as sure as yesterday.

I don't know why you want to sheep me?

I still have to go through Mew, but Rob being scum kind of makes their whole buddying thing maybe a little ridiculous for scum.

Also, Lincolm, I'm going with Fitz-town, with quite a bit of that being from what Empire brought up. I still need to decide on Matt too, but he was a weak townread.

[DeasVail]

N, I didn't think you had so much faith in my scumhunting ability but ok.

Anyway, today is the day when DV decides who he wants to lynch (maybe), and you all can sheep me! (but you don't have to if you don't want to because I don't really know what I'm doing)

Master Mew/Ion67 + Rob13

-I know that this is not necessarily a good reason, but Ion leaving his vote on Rob for a long time and then taking it off because there's a wagon on him makes me lean toward them not being buddies. I know that it could probably be considered the opposite and it is a weak reason to me though.

-But then there's 353...

-I'm not sure whether the end of 817 is too conspicuous to be from scum or the kind of thing that scum would say to their partner in that situation. Thoughts?

-Eh, overall I'm still leaning town on the slot because of the way Mew interacted with Rob the previous day. I'm open to other opinions though.

Mew, why am I no longer a scumread?

Projectmatt + Rob13

-55 is most likely a mild towntell. I think scum would love to get into a useless wall fight with their buddy (or maybe that's just me )

-Rob suspects PMatt fairly seriously starting from 40. When he later switches to Denis, he doesn't really provide a reason for Denis being town. I actually think mafia may be more self-conscious about switching their vote from a buddy and would feel the need to have a reason to call their buddy town/a reason not to vote for them. I think this is potentially weak too and maybe I'm wrong, but it's what I'm thinking at the moment. Oh, and just saw that it comes at a time when there is a PMatt wagon. I think this point may be better now.

-I don't know if there's really much point to 365 except to distance.

-Also, if Rob is going to vote Matt-scum in 396 and not HD, why does he need to end up bussing HD? I'm sure he'd feel fine about being on PMatt with HD getting lynched. (Scum would feel like they are still tricking the town by actually being on a counterwagon on their buddy!!) and I only really see the vote on HD happening if he was voting for a townie beforehand. I feel like all these reasons I'm bringing up are possibly flawed, yet together I think they make it unlikely for PMatt to be scum.

Reading through I'm getting pretty paranoid and I'm kind of worried that the rudeness for a lot of the game was a scum ploy (I'm not sure what he's usually like as town. The one time I played with him was ages ago.), but I think he's town.

~~

So, I'd probably go for N today if it were up to me, but his play is making me less sure of him being scum.

[DeasVail]

Vote: N

[DeasVail]

No Empire

Anyway, what PMatt said.

[DeasVail]

I didn't have anyone in mind that was going to die, but when I saw Empire's name, it wasn't very surprising. My thoughts were more along the lines of, "So they finally killed him."

[DeasVail]

Probably

V/LA for 3 days, maybe less

. I will still post probably, but tonight is an example of me not posting properly when I otherwise would have.

[DeasVail]

I'll get to this over the weekend. Kind of need to read through things. At the moment I don't have much idea where to go. Everyone left has some kind of reason to be town.

[DeasVail]

Ok this is where I'm going to go:

Vote: Mew

His play on its own has been scummy and with everyone having some kind of 'interaction with scum' reason to be town, this is what makes him my preferred target. The reasoning is what I've said before. Mostly him being more self-conscious and more concerned about what people think of him than I'd expect town to be.

[DeasVail]

I don't really mind about the prod rules, as long as they're not just way too long as far as times go.

[DeasVail]

What is the benefit of implying I'm scum when you don't actually think it?

[DeasVail]

What is my and havings mafia interaction reason for us to be town?

(This is somewhat of a filler post but with the deadline dwindling down I'll make a post either late tonight or early-ish tomorrow.)

The main thing with Fitz was the Breakfast post that Empire pointed out.

With you it's stuff I've said before. A lot of it's weak, but there are one or two things that I think are reasonably strong indicators of town. You'd probably be my second pick for scum right now, but I'm not sure.

[DeasVail]

-Rob suspects PMatt fairly seriously starting from 40. When he later switches to Denis, he doesn't really provide a reason for Denis being town. I actually think mafia may be more self-conscious about switching their vote from a buddy and would feel the need to have a reason to call their buddy town/a reason not to vote for them. I think this is potentially weak too and maybe I'm wrong, but it's what I'm thinking at the moment. Oh, and just saw that it comes at a time when there is a PMatt wagon. I think this point may be better now.

-Also, if Rob is going to vote Matt-scum in 396 and not HD, why does he need to end up bussing HD? I'm sure he'd feel fine about being on PMatt with HD getting lynched. (Scum would feel like they are still tricking the town by actually being on a counterwagon on their buddy!!) and I only really see the vote on HD happening if he was voting for a townie beforehand. I feel like all these reasons I'm bringing up are possibly flawed, yet together I think they make it unlikely for PMatt to be scum.

~~

I think those were the main ones.

[DeasVail]

But I never accused you of caring too much after I gave you no choice. That is something you are essentially accusing me of doing before I even did it. I don't need to defend it if it wasn't the intention. And in my mind it is only entrapment if I'm scum and that was the intention. I'm not taking advantage of your 'entrapment' so I don't see the problem.

Oh, this is in response to Mew by the way.

[DeasVail]

You've been calling me scum for unelaborated reasons for several phases now - this has been the longstanding disagreement between us, it is hardly a recent development. You'll throw my name into a list of "prob-scum," without explanation, I'll ask why, and you'll say I'm being defensive - I'll press for further explanation of your scumread on me, then you'll say it's mostly because I'm being defensive.

You don't see how that's frustrating?

I feel like I've gone over this before and I don't want to anymore. I'm sorry.

[DeasVail]

Yay! Now let's lynch Mew.

[DeasVail]

Oh fun.

[DeasVail]

Sorry, this will have to wait.

[DeasVail]

So, I really don't have much idea what I'm going to do. I know I said PMatt the previous day, but now I'm all unsure.

Anyway, here we go:

My first problem is that Fitz is just the kind of the player that will always give me a scummy feel, so is it because he's scum here or am I just imagining things again?

Ok, if I were to just vote right now, I'd go with PMatt because his play yesterday gives off the feeling of scum trying to look town (the questions he asked me were a little weird considering timing). But I don't know!!!

Eh... I'm thinking PMatt.

I guess I just feel that there's more I can say that's scummy about him and more flaws with my town-reasoning.

[DeasVail]

I will post this afternoon or tonight hopefully.

[DeasVail]

Alright, tomorrow. I'll have my assignment handed in and then I can have a lot more free time to actually do something this game.

I do have a question for Deas though - where does he feel that the timing of my questions was poor and would he mind quoting the specific ones, please?

Deas, you also say "am I imagining things again?" Have you have any previous experience with Having in your games before? Yes or no?

I meant that you were asking me questions as if trying to read me toward the end of a day where I wasn't a possible lynch. It gave me the impression of scum trying to look more town.

Yes, the first he was scum, and my read went back and forth. The second he was town, and although he felt kind of scummy, I didn't have him as a scumread at all if I remember correctly.

[DeasVail]

I'm town. Please stop.

[DeasVail]

I'm town because RayFrost was, and it's obviously not a good idea for you to stop if you're scum, but I want you to, so please?

[DeasVail]

This is not how I'd play as scum, and I'm pretty sure whoever's scum knows it.

[DeasVail]

I don't see how I've promised anything that I haven't done. I have decided that I'm leaning towards voting for PMatt, and plan to go over you both one more time before deciding who to vote for. Most of my relevant thoughts on your ISOs have already been stated by myself this game. If you want some kind of "look at me I'm so town" content, then you should have asked Cheery Dog to give me a scum role PM.

[DeasVail]

Deas, I think the question is: why play like this as town? I just made a wallpost explaining why I think you have scumtolod or why the other person is town. Why are you refusing to respond? Why aren't you giving me any reads?

I hate to use excuses, but I have felt overwhelmed with everything going on for me right now, and I think my mafia play has suffered because of this.

Regardless of this though, I really don't see the point in me responding. I mean, you're pointing at things I've done and saying you think they come from scum. I've told you that I'm town, which suggests that you're wrong. What else am I supposed to say?

My reads are:

PMatt is probably scum, but I still need to decide for sure (I have a day off tomorrow, so this will likely happen then). Fitz is probably town.

I am really sorry for my bad play as of late, but it doesn't change the fact that some things you're expecting of me seem fairly pointless.

[DeasVail]

Like, what on earth is this sentence?

That is referring to your expectation that I somehow respond to your case against me.

And things have changed since I replaced into this game.

I am going over things over the next few hours though.

[DeasVail]

So maybe I will do a "look at me I'm so town" post. We'll see.

Main impressions from the Fitz ISO:

-First, his reason for not voting for Breakfast is that he/she's being replaced, later it's that PMatt is the stronger scumread. Possibly avoiding having to bus a buddy.
-I've decided I don't like his vote on Rob for such an easily resolved reason.

-'I am hesitant to bring him to L-1 this early in the day though as I do not see anything definitive that says he can't be telling the truth.' This is about Rob and I think could actually mean something when compared to his vote on ThunderHog the earlier day. There is the difference of deadlines and such, but what I quoted makes him sound much more cautious than was demonstrated the previous day.

-One thing I do like though, is that his scum read of me feels natural. For a lot of the game he had a townread on me and was considering PMatt as scum, but then here, he looks over everything and comes out with a scumread of me. I feel like scum would just end up sticking with PMatt.

All in all, the way he has approached this day does seem fairly town, but there are scummy things too. Another thing I need to consider is the point that Empire brought up as well as Implosion's play, which I found townish.

I would like to know why you feel the following way Fitz:

Plus if I vote first I don't have to be the one who decides the game.

This quote suggests that if you voted first it would be less risky than being in a deciding position. Town would obviously understand the risk of voting first and getting it wrong (and I don't see how it is in fact any different), but for scum it's safe either way, and that's the thought process that you appear to be showing.

I will look properly over PMatt tomorrow and make a decision then hopefully. I'm sorry for not getting it done today.

[DeasVail]

Look at me I'm so town- Projectmatt edition

Be prepared for very weak reasoning!

In 197, the whole 'waiting for something' thing is the kind of thing I'd do as scum, but not really as town. That's all your getting on that, sorry.

365, as I said before, is more like an attempt to distance than anything else.

Yeah... everything else I'm thinking is what I've already said. Most of PMatt's ISO is actually pretty null considering things.

But there is this:

unless deasvail helps himself the read probably isn't changing.

And right now I'm convincing myself that this is scummy and is enough to break the PMatt/Fitz dilemma that I'm currently experiencing. (Basically if he thinks I'm scum then what does helping myself have to do with anything?)

Sorry to everyone if I'm wrong.

Vote: Projectmatt

[DeasVail]

Also if it helps, I feel that PMatt's read of me is really lazy and scum-like.

[DeasVail]

Ugh, I'm really sorry. And well done scum!