Mini 1749: Classic Rock Mafia: Game Over!

[davesaz]

First thing I checked was that Taly did the right thing in opening post.
Summaries are welcome.

[davesaz]

Still content with Mathilda lynch

I'm OK with that, but it worries me that people seem to have forgotten about Dierfire.

What about Dierfire?

[davesaz]

Still content with Mathilda lynch

I searched for a reason for this and it wasn't obvious. Care to point it out?

[davesaz]

Because the slots posts are generally pretty 2 dimensional including their vote justifications

Hmm, tbh that isn't what I expected you to say. Can you be a bit more concrete?

[davesaz]

I never take anything for granted. An attitude that someone should just trust your reads won't be enough, you'll need to actually show that your reads have value.

[davesaz]

I don't have time to get into a debate here. I'm confident FA slipped and we should lynch her.

If you're confident she slipped, then you should be confident enough to quote something to show it. Not having time to get into a debate isn't an acceptable answer.

What is the slip again. But yeah I'll lynch anybody.

I too would like to say that this lynch anybody thing is just WTF.

What is the slip again.

For some reason, ABR thinks that FA scumslipped by not looking for associative tells pre-flip and scumreading both ABR and Radja.

I'd accept a quote from you, if you know where to point me.

[davesaz]

Duh, you had voted more than one player. She says you voted your partner from day 1 in the other game. This game is demonstrably different than the other one, isn't it?
Disclaimer: I didn't and don't plan to look at the other game. It's about what FA could have perceived.

I think I'll still get interesting info from that conversation, whether it's a slip or not.

[davesaz]

You haven't been wagoning

anyone

since day 1. Your vote has moved.
I think you're focusing on the

your partner

part and not the

since day 1

part.

Like I said, I'm still interested in it as a conversation, since I don't know either of your alignments.

[davesaz]

That doesn't make any sense.

I agree.

[davesaz]

That doesn't make any sense.

I agree.

Then vote FA.

I suspect a language thing. Too many indirect references.

[davesaz]

OK, the unvote is rather interesting. I wonder if we have time to swing ABR as a lynch? <goes to check the deadline>

[davesaz]

I'm looking at ABR and AI as likely scum.

[davesaz]

No. Albert B is not a good Lynch.

Not lynching ABR today.

Why not?

[davesaz]

^^ Very similar to what I would have said.

[davesaz]

Because the slots posts are generally pretty 2 dimensional including their vote justifications

Hmm, tbh that isn't what I expected you to say. Can you be a bit more concrete?

Again, like I asked ABR, why do you care about my explanation? Do you actually value my reads or are you trying to scumhunt me?

An answer to this has been given, finally.

[davesaz]

I thought it was about the doctor / bread crumb discussion a few pages earlier. That's why in 626 I said the answer was unexpected.

[davesaz]

so like no one is interested in the fact I have day chat now with a potential scum power role ok then.

You're saying someone neighborized you and Matt, and you now have daychat with that player? Or was there a hood already that you got added to?
How would you know that Matt became a member? Is that based solely on what the other neighbor told you?

[davesaz]

I looked at Firebringer just now, and I think I'll skip the questioning and jump straight on the wagon.
VOTE: Firebringer

[davesaz]

You can give vc's which aren't on pagetops too.

[davesaz]

A stall is a stall, and this was stalled pretty well. Plenty of opportunity for any of the people who are actually posting to pursue another suspect. It's not possible for everyone on the wagon to be scum.

[davesaz]

<regarding me>
He stated he read FB ISo and without explanation Jumped on the wagon. There is nothing town motivated in his ISO at all. I know he claimed miller and we had a half cop but I really think That will clear the possibility of him being scum and I really don't like the way people are clearing him up at this point.

Evidently you forgot already that you immediately sheeped me with even less explanation?
Pot meet kettle.

[davesaz]

Remember that ascetic counters not just cop but all roles. And it works a different way, by yielding a "no result".

[davesaz]

Triple ( technically quadruple) bumps are bad. Especially when you bump to make room for a VC and then don't post it. lol

ABR vs Aero, is there something to this battle which is not related to role / setup spec?

[davesaz]

A lot of classic rock is pre-video.

@Davesaz

Unless Aj and AlwaysInnocent are both Mafia, at least one of the players on Firebringer's wagon should have been Mafia. Which one looked most suspicious to you?

TBH I'd need to review that.

[davesaz]

<checks countdown> 10 days left?
OK, commencing heavy lifting. Anticipating the question why not before, because I've had a pretty weird several days of RL.

[davesaz]

You're opposed to analysis? Who are you worried it might uncover as scum?

[davesaz]

What's this about bodyguard? Bodyguard dies if the guarded player is killed.

[davesaz]

targeted for a kill that is

[davesaz]

Hmm, ok. For completeness sake I must mention that it would not be completely unknown to strategically no-kill to either confirm the "bp bodyguard" as town, or frame someone.

[davesaz]

Doubtful but I hate losing as town because someone gets ruled out when it's not 100%.

[davesaz]

@MOD: V/LA Friday afternoon through Sunday around noon, MST (UTC-7)

[davesaz]

So I was going to do some serious VCA / analysis before the ABR lynch, but it turns out we didn't need it then.
But I do have the notepad++ file still. 78 lines if you're interested in details.

Let's review the events around the lynch...

<checks countdown> 10 days left?
OK, commencing heavy lifting. Anticipating the question why not before, because I've had a pretty weird several days of RL.

This game isn't going to survive 10 days.

VOTE: ABR

This is L-1. I see no reason to keep him, we're just beating around the bush and not getting anything done today. An aesthetic for town makes zero sense given our roles.

You're opposed to analysis? Who are you worried it might uncover as scum?

Imagine that I voted for him, too. I just know you love the hammering part, FA.

if there is nothing to be discussed

VOTE: Albert

I note that AJ, AI, and FA all three get in a hammering mood just as soon as I say I'm gonna dig in.

As for what I found, here is the interesting part.

Spoiler: notes

1077 vc is the tipping point.
Classic Rock Mafia: Votecount #2.44:

Firebringer (3): Dierfire, Davesaz, Frozen Angel
Dierfire (3): AlwaysInnocent, Albert B. Rampage, Aj The Epic
Aeronaut (1): Firebringer
AlwaysInnocent (0):
Albert B. Rampage (0):
iraonavp (0):
Frozen Angel (0):
Aj The Epic (0):
Garmr (0):
Davesaz (0):



Not voting: Garmr, iraonavp, Aeronaut

At this point, what have Garmr and Aeronaut said about Dierfire?
Garmr said nothing, review Aero.
AJ is also a possible
FA dropping and coming back is sketchy but she did not take the opportunity to vote Dier.

I wonder if Dier is also scum? That would explain the lack of an effective counter to FB.

So before ABR had flipped, I had noted that:

FA has a tendency to leave the wagon and come back to hammer.
Dier was the counter to FB. If FA were scum she had the opportunity to try to push Dierfire, since she left the Firebringer wagon while it was still small.
If Dier is scum it could explain why scum couldn't make him an effective CW.

And now we have a ABR wagon to analyze.

Pedit: your case is in the neighborhood?

[davesaz]

I'm back from the mountain but walking on snow took more out of me than expected.

[davesaz]

VCA gives me either Dierfire is scum (evidence being his wagon could not be used to save scum ABR or scum Firebringer) or AlwaysInnocent (evidence being pattern of vote parking Dierfire and being unwilling to abandon that seemingly for any reason). I did that strictly off the official votecounts so there could have been an AI vote change that changed back before the next VC, skimming in this way would not pick that up.

[davesaz]

Why do you need neighbor help?

[davesaz]

Either AI is town and solved it, or scum and trying too hard to lynch Dier. (Actually there is a 3rd possibility that he's town and wrong, but I'm an optimist)
So I'm pretty sold on lynch Dier, and look really hard at AI if game isn't over.
Though I have to say that if AI is scum, marking everyone else off as green isn't the best move.

[davesaz]

We still have 8 days so there is no hurry. However the game needs a stir.

VOTE: Dierfire

L-1

[davesaz]

I'm having trouble here

My paranoias are killing me...

What's bothering you?

[davesaz]

I'm pretty much null on bothe direfier and dave like their purposely making themselves harder to be readed ...

I'm a replacement for a town miller who claimed in first post, in a game which had a mafia ascetic. I don't think reading me is even necessary.

[davesaz]

VCA gives me either Dierfire is scum (evidence being his wagon could not be used to save scum ABR or scum Firebringer) or AlwaysInnocent (evidence being pattern of vote parking Dierfire and being unwilling to abandon that seemingly for any reason). I did that strictly off the official votecounts so there could have been an AI vote change that changed back before the next VC, skimming in this way would not pick that up.

Repeating this read again. If Dierfire isn't scum, then

why didn't scum use his wagon to save ABR

?
I don't see any way that scum let one of themselves go down without a fight, unless the other wagon was also on one of them.

[davesaz]

Albert B. Rampage (3): Aeronaut, Garmr, Dierfire
Dierfire (2): AlwaysInnocent, Aj The Epic
Aeronaut (1): Albert B. Rampage
Aj The Epic (0):
Davesaz (0):
AlwaysInnocent (0):
Frozen Angel (0):
Garmr (0):



Not voting: Davesaz, Frozen Angel

When doing VCA the last VC is usually the least important one. This is the one which matters. If Dierfire is town, scum could have tied it at this point and fought harder for that wagon.

[davesaz]

Why do you think it's lylo, with 5 alive and 2 dead scum?

[davesaz]

You can afford to mislynch me, if you really want to cut it close on purpose. I'd rather not.

[davesaz]

Wow, kinda early in the day cycle for a stall.

Aero town
FA medium town
AJ weaker town
AlwaysInnocent scum

I would be open to being convinced on AJ being scum, if it's a really good case and it's backed by someone other than AI. There are universes where I"m wrong about FA but it would be really unexpected.

[davesaz]

VOTE: AlwaysInnocent

[davesaz]

I'm voting for scum. Join me for the win.

[davesaz]

Just vote AI and end this.

[davesaz]

A scum ascetic and a town miller balance each other. No reason both can't exist.

AI is just trying to cast doubt by forgetting to mention that ABR was scum.

The whole discussion was on the impossibility of both of those roles being present

as town

. A scum flip for ABR makes it

more likely

that town has a miller.
Taly did the right thing by claiming it right away, and I did the right thing by confirming it right away as soon as I replaced in.

[davesaz]

Also remember that ascetic is not just investigation immune -- it is immune to everything else too. It is a more powerful role than miller.
In fact, ascetic is positive utility for scum where miller is negative utility for town.

[davesaz]

I agree, if it's not AI then it pretty much has to be AJ.

[davesaz]

Are you town reading AI?
I'm handing you scum on a silver platter and you're not reading what I'm saying.

[davesaz]

So why not?
100% of the time, miller is town. That alone should sway you to the point of choosing someone else.

[davesaz]

@FA: You have "too easy to be true" syndrome. Never say never.

@AI: There is 0% chance that I'm scum. If Aero and FA are both town (seems very likely) then it's at least 50% of hitting scum today and 100% chance of town winning.
VCA and your behavior (in particular who you scumread and why) say it's you.
If you really are town, then AJ should be your target.

@Aero: That's utter bullshit, I've done plenty town.

[davesaz]

If you really are town, then AJ should be your target.

[davesaz]

FA, Aero: you're giving AI a free pass on town reading everyone but Dierfire yesterday.
That gamelong tunnel along with avoiding any responsibility is the epitome of safe scum play.

[davesaz]

Ii think i commented on that, leaving wagons then coming back to hammer. But it did have plausibility as town. When i got annoyed about having said i would analyze and then the lynch goes right away you got lucky that i focused on the others who jumped on first.