Mini Normal 1817 - Dank Meme Mafia (Game Ended)

[Luna Fox]

If town does indeed have both of those rules scum almost certainly have a ninja, however the problem is that according to what i've read in mafia discussion, NRG would have to give town a lot more power if scum has 2 PRs. As a Ninja completely negates 2 town powers, that seems kinda weird if you ask me.

[Luna Fox]

those rules

This is meant to say "those roles"

[Luna Fox]

In the current situation, Scum is forced to kill the vig to prevent them from killing whoever the last scum is, unless the vig's an SK, in which case there's no more mafia because 9-1-3 sounds really bad. Regardless i think the correct choice of action is to force scum to No Kill OR we get 2 clears.

[Luna Fox]

If town does indeed have both of those rules scum almost certainly have a ninja, however the problem is that according to what i've read in mafia discussion, NRG would have to give town a lot more power if scum has 2 PRs. As a Ninja completely negates 2 town powers, that seems kinda weird if you ask me.

Why do you think scum wouldn't have a roleblocker?

Hmm i forgot about that possibility, but it's highly unlikely, Roleblocker + Doc gives scum a lot of ability to shut down town power.

[Luna Fox]

I mean, if what ari's saying is true and he's X-Shot, scum having a Doctor already nerfs him down by a lot, that shouldn't be happening to begin with, if you think scum has a Ninja or a roleblocker on top of that... well. The only thing is if Art is unlim. vig or SK.

[Luna Fox]

Now there's the thing of... Saru claiming follower with Killing result on Art after Art already claimed vig, which is easily fakeable but the problem is that it's hard to tell with the Quickk wagon on Art that forced him to claim super early.

[Luna Fox]

Regardless as i mentioned before, lynching either of them today's not a good idea because we force scum to No Kill or give us a clear, if Saru and IV are both telling the truth scum is doomed, no matter what this will be auto win as long as Art isnt SK. Because scum can only kill 1 townie for 2 that are cleared and are forced to kill Art first.

[Luna Fox]

Saru and Ari are town, yo. No need to mess with a perfectly good townbloc.

So you think that the NRG let town get double clears in the 2 scum dead at D2 scenario?

[Luna Fox]

So you think that the NRG let town get double clears in the 2 scum dead at D2 scenario?

I mean the scumteam's already kinda fucked if two of them are dead by D2 so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Art please vig me tonight, i dont think people are going to take anything im saying seriously until im confirmed town. Because here I am trying to solve the game while everyone is taking everyone's claims as the word of god.

[Luna Fox]

If someone in the claims is lying that'll PoE itself, won't it?

Maybe?
Scum kills Art while both have to clear 2 people, then scum kills one of the 2, while we get another clear, scum is now forced to explain why they arent dead yet or we reach XyLo with scum already done for.
Either way scum fake claiming here is screwed, Scum not fake claiming here is screwed, Scum is screwed yeah.

[Luna Fox]

I mean, Saru being town makes sense, as he can get a result on me, like he did, and either out or mislynch me. But IV's role could go either way, being able to sniff out PRs and kill them.

Nah neither, but Saru claimed his role AFTER you claimed, that's the problem.

[Luna Fox]

Regardless, if one of the 2 is town, scum is screwed due to their fake claim, and i can hardly see both being town if NRG is involved unless the reviewers decided to skip a Worst case scenario for scum in which 2 are dead by Day 2 with both of them alive.

Scum is fucked either way, and i already said im not lynching neither of the 2 claims today.

[Luna Fox]

I'm just trying to see why would scum fake claim, what are they planning on doing unless they didnt see the tracker claim coming.

[Luna Fox]

Is there something im missing here?, scum cant start shooting clears until they control the rate at which clears are produced, and even then, as long as either IV/Saru live if both are town, town will always have more clears to autowin in LyLo. The only possibility for a scum i see here is Saru IF the follower/tracker claims are to be doubted. A nice idea would be for Saru and IV target each other tonight while scum kills the vig/SK, in this way scum is forced to No Kill or they are even more screwed. While one can lie about the other, the other wont.

[Luna Fox]

And in this case we can get both invests cleared or one of them doomed while Art happily shoots without dying if scum needs to No Kill.
Now the wrench in this story is if Art is SK, but if either of them dies and there's only 1 kill Art is in trouble so... shrug

[Luna Fox]

Of course another wrench if the existence of a Ninja, but i doubt the NRG would give scum power to shut down 2 town powers.
Anyone has any opinions on all this? As I need to go back to studying soon.

[Luna Fox]

I mean, if scum has a Ninja while both Saru and IV are both town then these threads are hypocritical:
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=67596
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=67307
Read them (at least the 2nd one), and you'll come to the same conclusion

[Luna Fox]

Anyway im back to studying, this will also give people time to pitch in on my setup spec. I dont mind being wrong, Im not a super expert, but this kind of puzzle solving is one of the things i enjoy the most, cy'all tonight.

[Luna Fox]

From what i remember
Wagon onto Art, Art claims X-Shot vig
Somewhere in the middle IV claims Dier is town.
Wagon onto Saru for wanting the vig dead, Saru claims Follower with a Killing result from Art.
Wagon onto IV, IV claims X-Shot Tracker

[Luna Fox]

One of these is not like the others♪

[Luna Fox]

UNVOTE:

Sorry Luna <3

It's cool, I never get ML'd as town anyway so it was bound to happen eventually.

[Luna Fox]

I was thinking of lynching Alpaca and following the plan, but before i came back i realized it was possible that scum doesnt Shoot Art and shoots the other invest (or one of the invests)

[Luna Fox]

Would scum Saru really claim that when cop is apparently in the game? Like I don't get how scum could be confident in claiming investigative

Hmm maybe... i need to double check something.

[Luna Fox]

Looking at some Normal setups i have a feeling that this:

Mason
Mason
Follower

X-Shot

Tracker

X-Shot

Vig

I am not feeling this at all.

Could exist against Doctor + Goon x2

I don't find it weird that the odd man out is the Follower if they are scum, after all if Saru's scum he couldn't predict the tracker claim, do you think scum IV claims X-Shot Tracker after a Follower has claimed?

[Luna Fox]

It all comes back spiraling to something.

IV thinks Dier is town and claimed his result but not his role.

After Art had already claimed, Saru claimed his result on him, this is entirely fakeable if Saru is scum, he however cant keep faking results like this, this happened BEFORE, IV claimed, in this scenario i think the most likely one to be lying is Saru. That is an IF one of the invests is scum lying.

[Luna Fox]

Yeah the miller claim is what's driving me nuts, if scum believed it, they would predict a cop in the game (unless they thought a Follower would be ok?)

[Luna Fox]

The investigatives can clear each other cant they?

They certainly can, and scum is forced to No Kill, or let the vig live an extra day to kill one of the invests. Both scenarios clear the WIFOM of the invests, or at least one of them.

[Luna Fox]

I mean im predicting these options:
1) Art dies, both invests clear each other
2) Art doesn't die, both invests arent cleared to each other.
3) IV dies, Saru is framed.
4) IV dies, Saru is the last scum.
5) Saru dies, IV is framed
6) Saru dies, IV is the last scum.

Also Art cannot kill either of the invests because if he's town and accidentally X-Kills with scum on them that would be very bad as he's immediately suspected of being SK, so if Art's SK he's doomed.
If 2 separate people die, Art is confirmed Town vig, because Art cannot be SK if there's mafia alive.

No matter how you look at it, following this plan the only options scum has is killing Art of killing the Invests, and killing the invests confirms Art as town, and eliminates 1 potential WIFOM while killing elsewhere confirms both invests as town, or one is confirmed as scum.

[Luna Fox]

The investigatives can clear each other cant they?

This is the best idea, should we make IV claim if he has a shot?

That's exactly what i proposed a page or 2 ago.

[Luna Fox]

Scum had a doctor and a goon and probs killed Dragon there is probably one more member here

Thanks captain obvious, why do they "PROBS" killed Dragon? instead of "CERTAINLY" killed Dragon? do you think scum shot itself? This line doesnt make sense and feels like filler.

[Luna Fox]

And yeah that might be nitpicking on words, but i just dont understand the purpose of the whole line at all tbh.

[Luna Fox]

Ok holy shit this game got really complicated really fast and I won't be getting back at my computer for another 2 days so until than this is going to be the best I can do.

Ari claimed vig and that he shot Kraska (X-shot X>1)
Saru claimed follower and that he followed Ari and got a kill action
IV claimed X-shot tracker never said who he tracked (seems inferred he used his power to confirm dier as town but it would be nice to get an actual claim since you ignored when someone asked you)
Beeboy claimed miller at the beginning but just claimed mason
There is one more mason which presumably will be claimed if they are about to get lynched.


Scum had a doctor and a goon and probs killed Dragon there is probably one more member here

Out of Dier, Murder, Luna, Postie, Random and me there is one scum and one conf town.

I know nothing of setup spec so I can't really weigh in on whats valid but unless the last scum is op af this looks a little town sided to me.

So first at this point I think it would be best for the other mason to claim just so we have another conftown to make life easier when picking a lynch option.

I am 90% sure Luna, Ari and postie are town

I am 100% sure I am town
My lynch pool right now is
Dier (who might have been cleared by IV but not sure), Murder, Random, Saru and IV

Honestly I think that the best course of action would be to clear the 2 investigatives and to vote on who Ari kills and than work on what we get tommorow since there is probably only one remaining scum member we have a day to spend on taking our time and clearing things up.

Also I am being scumread from POE which is great but isn't working because trust me I would be flailing as scum here. Throwback to Baccano Mafia.

Like idk, why but this post feels like he just said a bunch of stuff and the only thing that's worth anything is... the bolded
And the italic feels like parroting, am i wrong in feeling this way?

[Luna Fox]

IIoA.

Ah yeah, that's the word (or acronym in this case) i was looking for, thanks!

[Luna Fox]

The only thing I got from that is that I'm supposed to follow IV, right?

Yes, and IV is supposed to track you.
This is all assuming game doesnt end with whoever we lynch today anyway.

[Luna Fox]

Well actually I forgot to say it cause I thought I inferred it but my plan invokes a no lynch today and than the italicised above. Also I said probably cause I am still not sure on the existence of an sk

I was thinking of NL before, but why waste it? we help reduce the PoE pool by lynching today.

[Luna Fox]

I suppose but we have the time to go about not getting a lynch and a vig today because just say for example they were all wrong we would potentially lose 3 townies

And being wrong on everything also means:
Losing 2 people off PoE and 1 outside of it... vs losing 1 people off PoE and 1 outside of it.
Again, what's the issue with this?

[Luna Fox]

Town casualties are going to happen if we're wrong, but reducing more ppl in the PoE vs the ppl outside of the PoE is how we autowin this. Since the Follower/Tracker/Vig trio will resolve itself.

[Luna Fox]

to clarify I did not investigate anyone last night. I think dier is town for other reasons that I don't want to elaborate on.

Are you ok with the plan or do you have objections, and if you have objections, why?

[Luna Fox]

IV on a scale of 1-10 how confident are you dier is town (don't say 10)

8.5

to clarify I did not investigate anyone last night. I think dier is town for other reasons that I don't want to elaborate on.

Are you ok with the plan or do you have objections, and if you have objections, why?

can u quote it for me lul

You track Saru and Saru follows you while Art shoots someone outside of you 2.

[Luna Fox]

Hmm this is where i currently stand.

Strong Town

Postie
beeboy
Aristophanes*

Towny:

Dierfire

Leftovers:

MURDERCAT
AlpacaAlpaca
randomidget
Saru*
innocentvillager*

[Luna Fox]

I tend to forget things dont judge me >.<

Hmm this is where i currently stand.

Strong Town

Postie
beeboy
Aristophanes*

MURDERCAT

Towny:

Dierfire

Leftovers:

MURDERCAT

AlpacaAlpaca
randomidget
Saru*
innocentvillager*

[Luna Fox]

Vote: Aplaca

beeboy if random or alpaca is your mason partner say so now, otherwise stay silent.

P-Edit: ok so he's the mason...

[Luna Fox]

Well that kind puts my PoE out of wack.

[Luna Fox]

I'm pretty sure Alpaca should end it, but otherwise im not sure who to vig, specially with what IV said about Dier.

[Luna Fox]

I'll let Art decide, but now im more confident scum is in the invests, which should probably be cleared up tonight anyway.

[Luna Fox]

Just read and thought about this claim.
One of the investigatives

HAS TO BE SCUM

Well, if Beeboy Mason.

Because masons are confirmable and often replace cops.
And we have 2 other investigatives.

Can anyone refute this logic!?

Also, 3 pages behind. If someone said this already, days coo.

I dont, but if scum kills you, then it becomes a 1v1 invest tomorrow, with a sure lynch on scum the next day if we're wrong.
Scum has to kill you or one of the masons otherwise they wont win like ever.

This is also supposing that beeboy isnt mason fake claim gambiting.

[Luna Fox]

And if scum is outside the claims I don't think they can waste a night to frame

Exactly!

[Luna Fox]

Im fairly sure it's Alpaca right now either way, nothing else makes sense other than an invest being scum.

I think scum just got #rekt can scum just concede pls.

[Luna Fox]

I don't think Beeboy is doing that lol

I don't either, but i had to mention it coz it can happen that beeboy's fake claiming Masons so that we dont lynch/vig his townread
It's a possibility that can't be overlooked but it's highly unlikely. And staying quiet about my mind hasnt ever served me well.

[Luna Fox]

So we do Alpaca who honestly might flip town but whatever RIP perfect win if that's true and then it's just clean up based on results.

If this was mountainous i would push harder for a perfect win, but i think risking perfect win in exchange for the possibility of auto win is worth it.

[Luna Fox]

Not sure what to think of MC keeping screaming that they shouldn't be scumread due to leading the lynch on 611, while Alpaca is fine to getting himself lynched for an auto win.

[Luna Fox]

anyone who has played in a game with me where I'm scum should know I'm town here.

You mean like that game where we bused hiplop and you wanted to Xbus me to give me town cred?

[Luna Fox]

I've never been mislynched and I'd like to continue that.

That is nice ^_^ me neither.

[Luna Fox]

I wanna know how did you go from:

Luna if you don't put me in the towny column...

Remember when I lead the wagon on scum and made you vote there!?

Holy shit. You are not shooting me

I LEAD THE 611 WAGON

Then beeboy posts this:

UNVOTE:

I am a sucker for suicidal people ;w;

And you change your tone regarding that:

I don't mind being killed to win, I will just be personally insulted if people think I am scum.

Anyway, I'd rather be shot than mislynched <snipped: "due to these reasons">

(I dont mind the reasons i think they are legit coz i feel the same way, it's the tonality change in your stance that's bothering me)

[Luna Fox]

Well everyone knows what to do if AA flips town.

[Luna Fox]

Just as a reminder:
Saru and IV target each other.
Art shoots in the PoE pool.

[Luna Fox]

(ftr i rather Art shoot me or MC tonight, otherwise it will be a very sad day for either of us tomorrow if the scum is in the invests and scum NKs)

[Luna Fox]

VT, anyway, no it means he didnt perform an action unless you're saying that IV was a ninja (which he wasnt).

[Luna Fox]

Anyways, I wasn't role-blocked last night. IV didn't perform an action. If I was role-blocked, I would have gotten no result. This pretty much confirms a ninja, yes?

What does this mean then.

[Luna Fox]

Either way, double kill pretty much confirms Art as town, because i doubt this is 9-3-1

[Luna Fox]

NAR is only used to resolve action conflict. his track wasnt conflicting with anything so it should've gone through if he used it (he was just too dead to get any info out of it) If he was roleblocked he doesn't visit however.

[Luna Fox]

IV is a 1-shot Tracker and Tracked someone day 1.

IV said he hadnt used it tho...

[Luna Fox]

I am 99% sure he tracked someone day 1, I will fact check this later.

The only possible thing is him tracking Dier going nowhere.

[Luna Fox]

But how could IV be role-blocked if he was killed? Scum can't use factional and role abilities at the same time. So that must mean that IV's track didn't go through because he died. Am I missing something?

Oh yeah i forgot about that:

Scum cannot use factional abilities and role abilities on the same night.

[Luna Fox]

I love how we're discussing all the info and you guys are happy to cut the day short.

[Luna Fox]

excuse me I just unvoted wow nice misrep.

Excuse me, im referring to almost everyone else voting (including you before you unvoted)

[Luna Fox]

Like it's like people are happy to vote first thing first in the day, i know we have a PoE list and everything but that doesnt mean we shouldn't discuss any info that we have.

[Luna Fox]

Hmm im still thinking it's Saru tbh =/

[Luna Fox]

If it's Saru or Aristo then they're some kind of wizard. I could not be townreading either of them harder right now.

Why are you townreading Saru?

[Luna Fox]

I need to sleep right now and I'm phoneposting so my reasons for townreading Saru will have to wait until tomorrow.

Sure, unless people decide to rush a lynch again *stares at people that voted dier*

[Luna Fox]

Alright, surefire win theory.

Beeboy, Random, Saru, and I are a pseudo-townblock. We lynch Dier today, one of us dies in the night, and Saru checks Postie or Luna.

Guilty means guilty, they get lynched. Inno means we lynch the other.
If these results are wrong somehow (Saru claims a guilty on a VT), we lynch him the next day. If Saru gets an inno and we lynch the other, a VT, we lynch Saru the next day.

I cannot see any way this can fail!

This actually looks like a great idea. And if Random is scum then i'll blame beeboy.

[Luna Fox]

Saru gets NKed tonight if he is town

Wouldn't that eliminate the 1 invest is scum WIFOM anyway. And that just means me and Postie would 1v1 tomorrow, which would mean I was wrong about Postie.

[Luna Fox]

So you're suggesting the NRG let in a role that nerfs 2 town roles?
And one of them being 1-SHOT?
I find that hard to believe.

[Luna Fox]

Like ok if scum has a ninja those 2 roles might as well be VTs and one of them only has 1 chance to catch scum and that's even IF the ninja's dead.

[Luna Fox]

Seriously every single time Saru posts i feel more like i want to lynch him
I still think he's the last scum.

[Luna Fox]

What makes more sense:

Possibility 1:

Mason
Mason
1-Shot tracker
X-shot Vig

vs

Doctor
Goon
Role Cop/Follower/Goon

Possibility 2:

Mason
Mason
1-Shot Tracker
X-Shot Vig
Follower

vs

Doctor
Goon
Ninja

Possibility 3:

Mason
Mason
1-Shot Tracker
X-Shot Vig
Follower

vs

Doctor
Goon
Goon

[Luna Fox]

What part about that is scum claiming pls.
I'm disagreeing with the fact that a Ninja exists solely because it nerfs 2 supposed power roles, you dont give scum power just to nullify town's power, you give town power to balance it out from the fact that mountainous is scum sided.

[Luna Fox]

Did anyone even read the threads i linked back in D2...

[Luna Fox]

That sure is a convenient assumption to sell to town if you're a scum Ninja.

And it sure as hell is what Saru's trying to sell to town if he's a mafia goon.

[Luna Fox]

Put yourself in his shoes, if he's scum, he needs to do something to prevent his claim from generating clears.

[Luna Fox]

Here's an idea, We lynch Saru and if he flips town, Art vigs me tonight, and if Art doesnt vig me then lynch me tomorrow.
VOTE: Saru
I'm not letting scum get away with this stunt.

[Luna Fox]

Mason
Mason
1-shot Tracker
Follower
2-shot Vig

Doctor
Ninja
Goon

Not feeling this setup.

Wait where did you get that Art's 2-shot

[Luna Fox]

Really not seeing the problem. Doctor counters vig; ninja counters tracker/follower. Seems like a decent way to balance things for scum.

That's exactly what's wrong, read the thread that hoopla made in MD that i linked. You dont add scum power to nullify town's, You add town power to get away from mountainous being scum sided, and then if you add scum power then you need more town power.
i dont consider 1-Shot Tracker very powerful specially if there's a ninja, that might as well not exist, dont you think?

[Luna Fox]

If that's how you want to play it then sure i'll 1v1 you.

[Luna Fox]

Lynching scum is more important than preserving my "never been mislynched as town" anyway.

[Luna Fox]

Who is more likely to be scum Dierfire or Postie?

Postie

[Luna Fox]

There's like no way to lose this, it's simple, if you dont believe me lynch me, if you dont believe Saru then lynch him.

[Luna Fox]

o3o why is that?
In case someone who doesn't want to blindly sheep you is alive with her?

Because she's been trying to push a lynch on me since D1.

[Luna Fox]

I'm happy lynching either Dier or Luna. The other should be vig'd or lynched after that if the game hasn't ended by then.
I'll vote Saru if both Dier/Luna flip town, but I

really

don't think that'll happen.

Let's suppose for a second Saru's town, I know i'm town.

6:1 > 4:1 tomorrow lynch the other one > 2:1

We have 3 lynches and 4 suspects... ara ara.

[Luna Fox]

See I would treat Luna's suicidalism as a town treat usually but she knows how hard of a town trait I think that is so it has become incredibly null.

You shouldnt be treating ANYONE's suicidalism as town, not just mine.

[Luna Fox]

Wow picking 1 town among 4 people is apparently really hard!

It is when we have Saru spreading Ninja WIFOM, Postie who's picking on weak points to attack since D1, and Dier who's been lurking a lot. =/
I'd say it's really easy to see im town when im town, but alas, that is not the case it seems despite me having never rolled scum since i came back to MS on non-marathon games.

At this point im just WISHING to roll scum so you guys can see that this isnt my scum game.

[Luna Fox]

Wow picking 1 town among 4 people is apparently really hard!

pedit: But Alpaca and all the suicidal players in that unnamed game where town o3o

IaI was also suicidalistic.

[Luna Fox]

lol apparently we have a suicidal Luna who hasn't voted herself yet. >.> <.<

I never self-vote

[Luna Fox]

If you want to lynch me you'll have to work for it scum.

[Luna Fox]

huh i could've sworn something triggered this: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 1#p8151691
But i cant find what.

[Luna Fox]

If you want to lynch me you'll have to work for it scum.

I appreciate that you play to your scum win-con till the end. Respect for that. And I mean that.
VOTE: Luna Fox

Sure as long as you're fine dying tomorrow, coz i'll be flipping town ^_^ and there's nothing you can do about it.
@Everyone: please dont let Saru get away with any BS excuse afterwards seriously.

[Luna Fox]

Luna why lynch Saru today over any other day is the question I am asking?

Because he's scum, there's no way he seriously believes there's a ninja, and he's been fake claiming his role, he only claimed after Art had claimed, his role is perfectly fakeable, IV is dead so he cant confirm his result either.

[Luna Fox]

Plus he's already excusing himself from getting clears with this Ninja paranoia, he's just going to say "oh hey that player didnt perform an action, but since it's possible there's a Ninja, it means nothing" If you really believe there's a Ninja then his results mean nothing so why do you want to keep him alive?

[Luna Fox]

lol Luna if you turn out town, I deserved to be lynched tomorrow. I will make 0 excuses tomorrow if you flip town. I'll just tell people my result and then shut up and let them lynch me. I'm not even going to fight it. You can quite literally quote me on this.

Well im going to be turning up town, so if you're town, what's the issue with doing it in reverse?

[Luna Fox]

But in the grand scheme of things if we lynch him tomorrow instead of today what do we lose?
Is safe play just completely out of the question for you or something? >.<

Safe play has let scum gotten away with fake claiming.
I'm not letting that happen.

[Luna Fox]

If you really dont trust me then just vote me out, he's already promised he'll die tomorrow so why do you care, this is the "safe play" you're proposing no?

[Luna Fox]

Take your time.

[Luna Fox]

Can people just give their word that they'll lynch me tomorrow if Luna flips town so she can stop this madness?

So now it's madness?
I am literally not caring here, because im 99% sure you're scum, but you speak to me like you know that ill flip town and you'll suicide tomorrow.

[Luna Fox]

Or did i push you off your confortable smoke screen of Ninja too hard? Aww sorry ^_^

[Luna Fox]

I've seen scum do what you do and then people proceed to never lynch them because... I don't even know.
So im making 100% sure that you're dying after i flip town if im mislynched today. I already resigned myself to the fact that just because i havent rolled scum ever people arent going to ever be able to see how obvtown i am when im town because they dont know how much of a pathetic nervous lurksack i am when i play as scum, so I had already figured i'd eventually would eat my first mislynch, im resigned to that already, i had hoped to roll scum sometime to prevent this from happening ever.

[Luna Fox]

I've seen scum do what you do and then people proceed to never lynch them because... I don't even know.
So im making 100% sure that you're dying after i flip town if im mislynched today. I already resigned myself to the fact that just because i havent rolled scum ever people arent going to ever be able to see how obvtown i am when im town because they dont know how much of a pathetic nervous lurksack i am when i play as scum, so I had already figured i'd eventually would eat my first mislynch, im resigned to that already, i had hoped to roll scum sometime to prevent this from happening ever.

*cough*scum AtE*cough*
You done?

Sure. If that's all your reply to it.
Don't forget your words and promise tomorrow.

[Luna Fox]

beeboy vote me, im self hammering, this cant continue.

[Luna Fox]

I just want to have some nice last words before dying and make sure you guys lynch this scum tomorrow.

[Luna Fox]

Or lynch him today either way is fine by me, im done arguing with scum.

[Luna Fox]

Who dier?

[Luna Fox]

Saru's been selling the idea of Ninja since 1019

[Luna Fox]

Argh, I couldn't make it to 100%. The protocol keeps turning up weird edge cases.

Can someone verify my logic on the 2:1:1 scenario? My understanding is that we would win because the Town players can prevent a lynch, leaving a Night Phase in which the killers enter a "Prisoner's Dilemma" scenario and shoot each other.

Spoiler: Not Quite 100%

Lynch from the VT claims (say Dier).
Saru investigates one of the VT claims (say Postie). Most likely we don't want Aristophanes to shoot anyone (defer that kill to the lynch with potential information from Saru), but even if Aristophanes is a Serial Killer an unexpected shot just gives as 2:1:1 a bit early.
We pass on the lynch if four players live, lynch if five players live. If a lynch is necessary, the result from Saru might be helpful. If Saru dies, then the Masons live.
If 2:1:1 we win when they shoot each other.
In the worst case scenario, the Masons are hoping to hit one Mafia player in a set of three with two lynches.

Uh his plan talks about lynching too.

[Luna Fox]

There's a way to get 4 lynches but that assumes Art has 2 more shots and doesnt die tonight.

[Luna Fox]

I mean I have already said many times I plan on lynching him tomorrow.
I also have already explained how not including the world where town derps lynching him today is incredibly suboptimal.

So you're not buying into his Ninja existence claim then? because as i said, if said Ninja exists his results are... already useless. So the only reason for wanting to let him live is if you dont believe the Ninja existence.

[Luna Fox]

If you're going to go into Ninja wifom i dont see any reason to not lynch him. As the supposed Ninja makes him an essential VT. And if he gets a clear, then what, are you gonna say "well they can still be scum coz it's possible Ninja" so... his clear means nothing?

[Luna Fox]

I never knew a guilty result had 0 value.

Tell me what you're planning on doing in all possible scenarios, because if they dont include lynching Saru im just gonna be yelling from the Dead PT "Told you so!" after he wins off his "Clears that arent actually clears" i already explained the scum motivation for spreading Ninja paranoia and explained how his role has easily been fake claimed.

[Luna Fox]

Will that 1 day of being able to lynch knowing he is town really matter that much?

And who do you plan on Lynching? There's already 2 votes on me that are never going off coz they purely believe i'm scum, I am also never unvoting Saru, your choice.

[Luna Fox]

I can't win cause I'm being lynched tomorrow. Your point is invalid.

Neither i can apparently so your point's invalid too.

I can play that game as well.

[Luna Fox]

Cases
1: Saru claims a guilty on X -> Lynch X and win the game
2: Saru claims an innocent on X -> Lynch Saru and hopefully be dead so other people can do lylo for me if I am wrong on Saru.

So basically your choice of lynching me is clear then.

[Luna Fox]

But eh, i actually lied about self hammering, but i'd rather get an intent so i can get some last words.

[Luna Fox]

Anyway, if art has 2 shots left and he doesnt die tonight:

6:1 > 3:1 (MyLo) > 2:1 during the night, if shot correctly 1:0 if shot incorrectly 0:1 and the only way to be incorrect here is if the masons are lying.

[Luna Fox]

Cases
1: Saru claims a guilty on X -> Lynch X and win the game
2: Saru claims an innocent on X -> Lynch Saru and hopefully be dead so other people can do lylo for me if I am wrong on Saru.

So basically your choice of lynching me is clear then.

Is it really clear?
Because I am capable of being wrong on Saru and I need to choose 1 town player right now.

I am town.
But you'd have to convince the town of Postie or Saru to not lynch me ever, so *shrug* you're stuck choosing between Postie and Dier, and I already said i believe it's Postie.

[Luna Fox]

you're stuck choosing between Postie and Dier, and I already said i believe it's Postie.

for clarification i meant that Postie's scum if Saru's town.

[Luna Fox]

Anyway, if art has 2 shots left and he doesnt die tonight:

6:1 > 3:1 (MyLo) > 2:1 during the night, if shot correctly 1:0 if shot incorrectly 0:1 and the only way to be incorrect here is if the masons are lying.

How mad would you be at me if I was fake claiming mason here?

if you are and random is scum... very.
Because that would end up with me eating my first mislynch ever and not even being worth it.

[Luna Fox]

Anyway, if art has 2 shots left and he doesnt die tonight:

6:1 > 3:1 (MyLo) > 2:1 during the night, if shot correctly 1:0 if shot incorrectly 0:1 and the only way to be incorrect here is if the masons are lying.

Actually looking at this cant we just let Art shoot me? That way i still wouldnt be mislynched as town.

[Luna Fox]

Is that really a priority right now?

My priority is to lynch scum, so that's what I'm doing.

(Inb4 im completely wrong and murdercat is yelling me from the Dead thread telling me that im just being stubborn and my stubborness will get 2 townies killed)

[Luna Fox]

How would you guys feel if I said this fatalism feels really fucking town to me o3o

Then she played you real good. You said it yourself, she knows your weak spot.

>Weak Spot
>Has been telling beeboy ever since SW to not read fatalism as town.

Yeah totally.

[Luna Fox]

It's beeboy's choice to read me this way.
I'm not manipulating anyone, if anything i've been telling him to not read me as town due to fatalism, nor you.

[Luna Fox]

Or you think i say this:

See I would treat Luna's suicidalism as a town treat usually but she knows how hard of a town trait I think that is so it has become incredibly null.

You shouldnt be treating ANYONE's suicidalism as town, not just mine.

And proceed to fake fatalsim in order to be townread? Please.

[Luna Fox]

inb4 "but I would never do that as scum!!"

Well i can just drop you the WIFOM bomb then.
Yes, i would never do that as scum, because i can't fake anything as scum, or the limits of what i can fake are... pretty small, in addition if i was scum i have a ton of mislynches and you selling the idea of a Ninja in which case if i am said Ninja, why do i decide to lynch you instead of a gazillion other mislynch options considering the ammount of auto win plans being thrown around?

[Luna Fox]

1381 wasn't directed at Saru despite quoting his post ftr, it was directed at everyone else. Apologies if that causes misunderstandings.

[Luna Fox]

zzz self-meta doesn't mean anything zzz

Self town-cases are a thing. But why am i trying to convince you that im town, you arleady know that.

Anyways, let me make it clear to people why lynching me today is just straight up bad play, because that might have gotten lost in the whole back and forth in the previous pages. An X-shot Ninja is the likely answer here. Given that, me following someone who is that ninja will most likely result in a guilty. I present that guilty to the town and then I get quickly lynched(because that's what should happen if Luna turns out town, I will even self-vote and others have already proclaimed they will lynch me no matter what). My flip will either be town or scum. If town, the scum is confirmed and vigged/lynched. If I'm scum, congrats, because town wins.

You wont be getting a guilty because you're scum. And then if you get a clear you will just say "Ninja" again so this is pointless.

[Luna Fox]

But oh hey look! Saru's also using Fatalism, i guess he's also trying to appeal to beeboy's weak point!

[Luna Fox]

You're ignoring the fact that pretty much everyone understands that I should be lynched no matter what happens tomorrow if you turn out town.

Do they? I don't see Postie understanding anything. But then again if you're town she's probably scum. Since she's the only one that wants to survive out of all of us 4.

[Luna Fox]

Great, so if she's scum, she'll be lynched after my mis-lynch. What's the problem again?

I never said there was a problem?
You're the one making a problem here, I've already said im resigned to being lynched on the condition of you being lynched tomorrow after my town flip, so i dont see your point.

[Luna Fox]

What i am however doing is asking people to decide which of us 2 they want lynched.

[Luna Fox]

Thing is beeboy wanted a town name.
I know i am town, but I rather take the hit to get scum lynched, so im telling him to lynch Postie if all else fails (i.e im wrong about you), and that I would prefer being shot but that's probably not happening either way, all i ask is to declare intent so that i can give some final words before im hammered.

[Luna Fox]

I mostly don't want to screw up Luna's streak tbh.

I'm a suckered for these type of things.

Then would you rather shoot me? Because if i dont die, it'll be endless me 1v1ing with Saru.
Also why Dier? i think Postie's scummier.

[Luna Fox]

Spoiler: String of quotes that everyone will probably ignore just like they ignored my links

I see a lot of people making comments about the balance of a game after its finished, usually with the result dictating whether or not it was fair for either side, but you can't judge one game without looking at the whole picture. And the whole picture says we're giving mafia too much power, and town not enough. Collectively our instincts for what is balanced in a 13 player game is still wrong.

Personally, I think power distribution shouldn't deviate too far from this:

3 Goons

-

3 Strong Powers

OR

4 Middling to Strong Powers

2 Goons, 1 Mafia PR

-

4 Strong Powers

OR

5 Middling to Strong Powers

1 Goon, 2 Mafia PR's

-

5 Middling to Strong Powers

I...don't really agree that 5 town power roles is ever a good idea in a normal setup. At that point setup speculation becomes more of a factor in the daygame than I'm comfortable with.

Most mafia power roles exist to be counters for town roles. (Encryptors are an exception, obviously, and so are roles that would normally go in the hands of town but are given to scum as fakeclaims.) Adding a mafia power role isn't going to entirely cancel out the town roles it's meant for; it's a nerf.

But with that said, I do agree that mods/reviewers are often too quick to nerf things, and everyone forgets that towns are

really really stupid

.

A tracker or rolecop isn't the kind of information role that can carry a town. (And the scum seriously do not need a roleblocker to counter a tracker/doctor combination, or a mafia doctor against a two-shot vig.) A bodyguard is just a buffer; stronger protective roles help not just an individual town, but actively make the meta a better place by discouraging scum from shooting the most obvious targets. I don't know why voyeurs are even a thing.

It's interesting that we're in a good place with 9-player games. Both with Matrix6 balance, and also these closed games.

People tend to underestimate the impact mafia power roles can have on a game. A roleblocker for example can easily wreck a town's power role structure in a very short amount of time.

most people don't have the faintest clue how to balance a game

these stats are not particularly surprising

people need to consider how incredibly scum-sided a 10:3 mountainous game actually is and then consider that adding pretty much any two town power roles and no scum power is just going to make it less scum-sided but still probably scum-sided

right, but it looks like callforjudgment was implying that one of the reasons scum gets so much power is because normal reviewers have to deal with swing as well as balance (otherwise, i don't really know what the point of bringing up swing was)

but this doesn't make a lot of sense...

especially in a normal game, if you're looking at town's power and you're worried about the game potentially ending day two then the more sensible approach would be to... reduce or change town's power, not add more scum power

that also solves the other problem he mentions about too much power concentrated in 1-2 players

10:3 on the other hand is disastrously scum sided in mountainous (like 80-20)

---

This is the most recent such topic (unless I've missed one). The original, mod-suggested setup was Tracker, Doctor, 1-shot BP, 7×VT vs. 1-shot Strongman, 2×Goon. The three reviewers rated that original setup as townsided, highly scumsided, and marginally scumsided but balanced enough to run.

This kind-of shocks me; to me, the setup is scumsided and highly so. (The easiest way to see this is to replace the Tracker with an unlimited Cop; I'd still be far from certain that the result is even townsided, let alone broken in town's favour which is what you'd expect after making that change in a hypothetical balanced setup.) So I agree with one of the reviewers but disagree with the other two. The final version of the setup was Cop, Jailkeeper, 1-shot BP, 7×VT vs. JOAT (watch/track/roleblock), 1-shot Strongman, Goon; this passed with basically no discussion. I'd be staring at that setup for hours trying to work out how balanced it was and probably writing paragraphs of text, asking the other reviewers to check my reasoning; it's not an easy setup to review and I'm glad I didn't have to review it, so I'm surprised at the relative speed of the review.

As it happens, scum won the actual game. Postgame discussion makes it seem as though it's unlikely the setup was responsible, or at least nobody in the game seemed to have problems with the setup (unless I missed something).

EV for 11:2 is 39.49% (1186/3003). EV for 9:2 is 35.21%. EV for 10:3 is 20.78%.

The wiki page for Mountainous has the wrong numbers (and even those aren't under 30%). It's correct on the EV Project page, and I've started a new EV thread here with even more detail. I'm hoping to make an effort on updating and creating a bunch of pages for Vanilla Variants as part of this.

Personally, I would love to see a large number of 11:2 (or whatever) games run just to see how the town actually does with a large sample size.

This post is a bit long to quote so i'll just link it: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 2#p8093762

What are some examples of town sided normal games that have happened? My gut was that mini normal 1775 was town sided, and I remember complaints on mini normal 1782 (though I disagreed there). Any that stand out from those who know a lot on those things?

1775:
2 Mafia Goons
Mafia Encryptor

Town JOAT with 1 shot of each: Watcher, Commuter, Cop, BG
Town JK
Town Universal Backup
7 VT

no, not town sided

Do I even need to continue?

[Luna Fox]

Uhh... i actually missed that...
Ok nvm i take it back 1-shot ninja might be possible.

[Luna Fox]

Not a lot. They don't look particularly scummy but I've played a game with her before where I townread her quite hard and she turned out to be scum so I'm kinda wary. Idk. I'd put more thought into it but I'm confident enough in the townreads I have that I don't really feel the need to.

But didn't you say that i "claimed scum"?

[Luna Fox]

Oh good Luna's scumclaiming.

Look at this.

[Luna Fox]

At what point did you stop scumreading me to think dier's scummier?

[Luna Fox]

OMG im agreeing with Saru on something XD

[Luna Fox]

At what point did you stop scumreading me to think dier's scummier?

[Luna Fox]

I was attacking the thread?

[Luna Fox]

I'm fairly sure I was attacking Saru since then.

[Luna Fox]

Can you elaborate on this "hardcore attack on the thread" of mine?

[Luna Fox]

To be fair when this day started I was town reading everyone but Saru and it has all just been a downwards spiral

Sorry, i guess i've failed at my job of being obvtown.

[Luna Fox]

Yeah, I can't not townread Luna at this point.
If Dier isn't scum I have no idea what I'm going to do. Please let's just get this over with.

??? Is this sarcasm? you went from "Luna scumclaimed" to "Dier's scummier than Luna" to "I can't not townread Luna" pretty quick o.o
If it's not sarcasm can you tell me what made you change your read?

[Luna Fox]

*falls asleep*

[Luna Fox]

Hmm... but kraska was still alive back then?

[Luna Fox]

We could've just lynched Saru today...

[Luna Fox]

Oh nvm then

[Luna Fox]

Told you there was no ninja tho!

[Luna Fox]

wow gj town. 2/3 lynches, 1/2 vigs. very strong.

^_^
I only got my reads muffled when Saru kept trying to call Ninja, it also didnt help when he wanted to lynch Art.
Ah well mistakes were made.

[Luna Fox]

At least im not overgamed anymore so yay?
I was really worried that if Saru was scum he would somehow making me eat my first mislynch as town >.<

[Luna Fox]

Also yeah Dwlee thanks for running the game ^_^ I had a lot of fun!

Postie should learn to trust me more u.u

[Luna Fox]

You're welcome for hosting the game! Sorry for the mistakes I made in vote counts and such. If anyone has any comments on the balance of the game or anything I will take respectful comments about it. Was a very good game, I enjoyed watching it.

I think the balance was okay, i think i was right in thinking that a scum role to nullify 2 town roles would be too scumsided.

[Luna Fox]

B-But that one game... where I gave you a double vote... ;____;

That was a marathon game... it's harder to see the difference in marathon games =/

Well one day you'll see a scum game of mine

[Luna Fox]

At least I hope you guys trust me a bit more when I do setup spec from now on.