Mini Normal 1929 - Game Over

[awesomeusername]

VOTE: MarioManiac4

Stole my first post.

[awesomeusername]

Scorpius is scum.

VOTE: Scorpius
Anyone against this lynch is their buddy.

Why? Is it because he doesn't seem to care about scumhunting? Because that's the only negative I see in his posts so far.

I am against the Scorpious lynch.

Also why? Is this a townread?

[awesomeusername]

VOTE: Scorpious

I don't believe Vedith but this still seems like a good place to start.

[awesomeusername]

Awesomeusername, your exchange with Vedith and Mario in 33 and 73 - weird. You want logic in Vedith's fooling around post in the dawn phase?

Yeah, in retrospect he was obviously joking but 24 seemed like actual content to me at the time. Besides, I don't really like this part of the game so the sooner we get to actual reasoning and stuff the better.

@144: I don't think I've played with anyone here before.

[awesomeusername]

@Steel: What are you hoping to accomplish with your non-vote?

Honestly you're probably both town. I doubt you'd bring attention to yourself as scum early day 1 with that sort of thing.

UNVOTE:

Part of me agrees with you, part of me thinks it's just null.

[awesomeusername]

I like alban so far, for what it's worth. What about him did you think was scummy, Carcalilly?

Hey IAI, which do you think is more likely to be scum, LUV or Carcalilly?

[awesomeusername]

I like this push. It's similar to what I was thinking earlier.

VOTE: I Am Innocent

@Steel:

@Steel: What are you hoping to accomplish with your non-vote?

@Tchill:

I was wondering how long it would take people to start voting steel. Wouldn't scum try to blend in more though?

Like I kind of agree with you, but if he's town he shouldn't just no-vote. If he keeps doing nothing, it really looks like he just doesn't know how to pretend to be town. What I'm expecting is that he'll say "I wanted to see who was going to vote me because they must be scum jumping on an easy target," which is frankly a terrible way of catching scum, and also an easy way for scum to get some fake-scumreads. Hopefully I'm wrong, though. Do you lean town on him?

[awesomeusername]

I'll be able to read him better if he surprises me.

[awesomeusername]

To elaborate on that, in the scenario I described, I'd find him hard to read because town motivation and scum motivation could both be present - maybe he really does think he's scum hunting? I don't think I'd be comfortable scum reading him just for pulling a dumb reaction test, but I certainly wouldn't be town reading him either. Regardless, it'd be great if he turned out to be a super useful and insightful townie.

[awesomeusername]

I like this push. It's similar to what I was thinking earlier.

VOTE: I Am Innocent

Can you direct us to the post where you were thinking on these lines?

I didn't mention it in thread, but I did reach out to IAI in 178 because he was pinging me and I wanted to get a feel for him. He still hasn't answered.

[awesomeusername]

@Steel:

I feel like it's a really awkward reaction test though.
Like, Steel votes no lynch, sure, w/e.
But when he does it again, that's just trying to force a reaction when none exists. It's not going with the actual flow of reactions, it's like "HI GUYS DID YOU REMEMBER I EXIST YEAH I'M GOING TO DO THIS REACTION TEST YAY PLEASE RESPOND SO I CAN GET THE TOWNCREDIT"

If I get responses like this I should do this every game.

Can you unpack this for me, please? I more or less agreed with Mario's train of thought.

@LUV: How are you not fluffing? >.>

[awesomeusername]

@LUV: How are you not fluffing? >.>

Or I guess why is that a bad reason to vote you?

[awesomeusername]

So it looks like a lot of the people I actually want to push - IAI, Scorpious, and to a much lesser extent LUV - are inactive/busy/replacing out/whatever. :/ Io has already explained what I find sketchy about IAI, more or less; the only thing I have to add to 204 is that 116 pings me for putting off a question he has for later so it comes across as more of a threat than an attempt to get a read. That said, rereading his posts, my suspicions are weaker than I remember them being.

Scorpious feels scummy to me I think because of his aggressive tone. I'll have to read some of his other games to see whether he's always like this, but there's some stuff that reads to me more like discrediting than trying to push someone as scum or read them. Notably 266 calls the wagon on Steel scum-motivated but there's not really any follow-up to that? Looking back, I guess he's been busy after that, so maybe he just hasn't had time, I dunno. There's also too much theory-talk for how much he's said, IMO, but that could be style, too.

@Scorpious: Can you look closer at the Steel wagon and tell me which votes/pushes/posts in particular you're reading as scum-motivated?

I guess if LUV is replacing out this doesn't matter as much, but he just hasn't said much relevant to the game at all, sorta what everyone else is already saying. This read is significantly weaker than the others, as I said.

I'm having a really hard time reading the whole Vedith/Carcalilly/Mario thing. Like, there's a lot of joking around and it's really hard for me to tell when they're joking and when they're being serious. It looks like some serious stuff has come up in the last few pages, and I'm tempted to just sheep my town reads and jump on Mario. Really, they're all null for me right now - I feel like they could get away with saying just about anything and then be like "lol, jk" afterwards, which really bothers me. But I've seen something resembling scumhunting from each of them which is why they're not in the same category as LUV. On the other hand, Vedith wouldn't actually expect anyone to believe stuff like the claim in 299, would he? I don't know whether this is town messing around, town legitimately going for reads, or scum looking useful. Or scum messing around, I guess. Sounds like he does this a lot and it's not particularly alignment-indicative? Can someone confirm this?

Anyway, I'll definitely look more into Vedith/Carcalilly/Mario after getting some sleep; I'm too tired to untangle it right now.
UNVOTE: for now.

Oh, also albans gets a town point for getting conversation started again.

[awesomeusername]

Hmm, I really dislike that my scum reads are basically the least active players. I think that means I'm doing something wrong. Will look more into that tomorrow.

[awesomeusername]

@Tchill: I don't believe Vedith's claim. I mean, it's not in the list of normal roles, and this is a normal game, right? So I unless I'm mistaken it's a confirmed fake claim? Also @Tchill, can you explain why you think Scorpious is town? And what changed your read on me between 437 and now?

I read through some Scorpious meta and I see more shade-casting from him in this game than other games. But the other games I read include both town!Scorpious and scum!Scorpious, so there's not really a meta case here. I still think it's fairly scummy though.

@Scorpious: It makes sense for Vedith to out here because having three clears is really powerful. It's a role that can't exist in this game though.

It's bothering me how Vedith is using his claim to try to steer the lynch. Like, I think this sort of fake claim gambit itself is probably not alignment indicative, especially from Vedith, might even come from town more than scum, but this just feels really manipulative. Also, if Vedith is scum, I don't like how Tchill is trying to give credibility to the claim.

VOTE: Vedith

@Vedith: Could you give up the fake claim and give your actual reads please? Otherwise I'm just going to assume that you're hard-townreading Carca, Tchill, and alban, and that 425 is your actual reads.

I'm town reading Carcalilly. Also Io and Steel are my strongest town reads - I don't think I've said that yet. Rereading Mario, nothing pings me here either.

@Mario: Who do you think is scum right now?

Why_Mafia's case on alban seems fair. I still think alban's good outweighs his bad at the moment but I'd like to see him respond.

[awesomeusername]

..
Why_Mafia's case on alban seems fair. I still think alban's good outweighs his bad at the moment but I'd like to see him respond.

Would like to respond to what according to you is my good and bad. Elaborate, please.

The good is a lot of gut, but I think's mostly that you seem to be processing the game trying to read people, and it feels to me like it's coming from a town mindset. You've also been generating discussion in a way that I like.

The bad is more an accumulation of little things. I don't like 158. For all your probing, you haven't really given many reads, which could be fence sitting. I sort of feel like you've been coasting a bit lately, just asking people for stuff without giving much. What it comes down to, I think, is that a lot of your posts are pro-town and helpful, but are the sort of thing that scum can do too. I'd like you to respond to all of Why_Mafia's case, though.

Just so I am clear here. You do not believe it,and your reasoning is based on how the game would be set up, correct?

Correct.

@Ircher: Can you confirm that all roles in this setup are normal?

So fake claiming does not equal scum.
Especially when it's so obviously fake like that. It can only be a joke and there's no reason to even take it seriously.

I don't think it's a joke, it's gone on too long and he's using it to influence people's votes. What do you think of the people who believe the claim? Do you think that's alignment indicative?

[awesomeusername]

Vedith is being Vedith lol

This is what's making me doubt myself. :/ You seem to have experience with him, do you think this is town Vedith or scum Vedith? And why?

[awesomeusername]

@Mario: Fair enough. I'm not actually scum-reading him very hard right now, but I'm not scum-reading anybody very hard right now, so I don't really know what else to do.

@albans: Yeah, I'm not surprised that you don't like gut as a reason. But fair enough, I'll let you prove yourself on your own terms.

Why are you scum-reading Io?

[awesomeusername]

VOTE: Llamafluff

He is doing the exact same thing as me, but I feel like from him its scummy.

I'd jump on you for this, but I'm kinda getting uncomfortable with this wagon myself.

And yeah, @Vedith, I'm AUN.

@alban: Your vote is on Vedith but he's at the top of your town list.

[awesomeusername]

UNVOTE:

@Llama: Do you have any reads that aren't directly tied to Vedith's claim?

[awesomeusername]

I don't like this case. I think we interpreted some things much differently.

@AUN - Carcllily is my strongest scum read if you entirely ignore everything going on with Vedith. Passive reads for the most part mixed with an approach to the Vedith claim where they seem to want to defend them, but are never able to present a good reason to do such. That is the type of approach that scum who got "cleared" either by scum OR town faking a claim would most want to take as they have a free pass to do whatever. Especially seeming to attack MM for pushing on Vedith post claim (which that push IS the correct town reaction) they are a great pick for scum here. If Vedith is scum, it just makes the read that much stronger.

When you say "passive reads" do you mean that Carca's reads are lazy or that you have a gut read?

I'm fairly confident based on 332 that Carca didn't believe Vedith's claim. Can you please provide evidence that she believed the claim? Otherwise it doesn't make sense for her to feel "cleared."

And that's not how I read her attack on Mario. Wasn't Mario's push on Vedith because he was making Pokemon puns? So not serious? And Carca's scumread on him for completely separate reasons?

[awesomeusername]

I think there some valid reasons to suspect Carca, but these are not them.

VOTE: Llama

[awesomeusername]

@Llama: In 332, Carca quotes in big letters "Vedith is known for fake claiming," which suggests to me she thinks it's a fake claim. 319 is weird, though, and I can understand why you read that as believing the claim. It could definitely be a slip of some sort. But I still think 332 suggests that she didn't believe the claim by the time she was attacking Mario. And I thought you were arguing that the Mario push was bad because Mario had just attacked Vedith and she wanted to preserve her status as a clear?

Carca's read progression on Mario didn't ping me, and I don't think the vote placement is that bad. Agree about laziness and lack of actually pushing things. I'd chalked that up to V/LA, but she wasn't better before. And fulfilling self-scum-meta is pretty bad, too.

I see where you're coming from now, although some of your case is different than what you said before. Like, wasn't the Mario push also strategic for scum!Carca because of the whole Vedith claim situation? Because that's the part I really had problems with. Is that not part of your argument? Do you disagree that 332 suggests she doesn't believe the claim?

UNVOTE:
Sigh, I actually felt good about that vote.

@Why Me: I was scum reading Llama largely because 567 seemed like an argument based on false information. We might have just interpreted stuff differently though. :/ I'm still uncomfortable with the way he handled Vedith - felt like a surface level read, Steel said it well in 566. And I already had the slot at null-scum when Llama replaced in.

As for town-blocking, I'm town-reading you right now but not strongly? So probably not. Why do you town-read Llama?

[awesomeusername]

@Tchill:

Also @Tchill, can you explain why you think Scorpious is town? And what changed your read on me between 437 and now?

[awesomeusername]

@Carca: Read 590.

You're like, exactly fulfilling your self scum meta, and your reads seem pretty surface-level.

@Llama: I kinda think Vedith will be easier to read in the future. These trollish types tend to settle down a little bit after Day 1. I'd prefer Carca because her non-trolly posts are scummier IMO.

@Scorpious: What are your thoughts on Carcalilly and Vedith? I don't think you've given any opinions on them yet.

[awesomeusername]

@Io: Really, a Vedith and Carca team!? I was just thinking that was near-impossible if there are only two scum, given how Vedith helped swing the wagon on Carca in 568, and also expressed suspicion in 542, 558, and I think some earlier posts, although the seriousness of those is debatable.

Also, I initially didn't like Llama's statement about Scorpious either, but it's actually really smart - if Scorpious is scum with Vedith or one of Vedith's "clears," he knows for sure that the claim is a lie. And his posts really look like an inexperienced player who was caught off guard by the claim and feel for it. Does that make sense? That said, I agree that his play has been generally scummy.

[awesomeusername]

Ugh, this is a mess. Reading the last four pages or so has given me an actual physical headache.

Before I decide my lynch preferences, I want to describe where I'm at with both Vedith and Carcalilly. Hopefully this will help me organize my thoughts. Please feel free to correct me if I'm completely misunderstanding something.

Vedith

Against

: He's been blatantly anti-town. He faked some results for a long time, long enough for some people to actually believe them, and tried to manipulate people's reads with them. He also used it to deflect, or at least stall, giving some actual opinions. Actually, he dodges questions in general A LOT. He doesn't give reasons for any of his reads but just sheeps or expects to be sheeped. The Carca scumread did kinda come out of nowhere and was really convenient, both in timing and in picking someone who was already under some suspicion by the people scum attacking him. The last few pages I didn't like how he's dismissive and discredited people by calling them stupid or saying they're doing nothing or whatever. There's also the argument that it's worth getting rid of him to keep the game less of a headache, or that we shouldn't let players get away with the sort of stuff he's been doing. The trolling itself gives him probably too much deniability, which is problematic. Like, how am I supposed to read him if this is his town play?

For

: For all the blatant anti-town stuff, I kinda feel like there's some truth to "he's just being Vedith"? Like, I can understand how that fake claim, while annoying, could be a reaction test, and I can't deny that it did actually get some interesting stuff going. And while he is kinda rude when making points, they're sometimes good points. Mario and Carcalilly seem to be the ones with experience with him, and they both either said he was town or didn't want to lynch him up until Carca in 695, and that was 1) not a meta scumread and 2) jumping on her counter wagon. As a disclaimer, I haven't done a meta dive; I probably should but frankly I don't want to read more Vedith right now.

Carcalilly

Against

: This is gonna be a lot of copying from 590, but I want to clarify which parts of that I find scum-indicative and which I don't. Up until the wagon on her, I agree she has seemed "detached" from the game, in that she hasn't really dug around very much. She's been careless with her vote, and dropping the alban read because of Vedith's fake claim does kinda read like she wanted to be conf-town. Some of her reads are pretty surface-level, and aside from the mario push, very, very few of her posts have been relevant aside from the occasional surface read - all this joking around gives her too much deniability, too, I think. The recent switch on Vedith is pretty convenient. And worst of all, she gave self scum meta and is playing to it, and has been more or less all game. Also if Vedith is town and is as good at reading her as he claims, there might be something to that.

For

: I did townread her earlier, and that was partially because tone and partially because she was interacting with the outside world (i.e. not Mario and Vedith) more than the other two were. I don't have a problem with the Mario push, that seems fine and the read progression seems ok. Actually, I liked it - I think that also contributed to my earlier townread. I don't read that heavily into her votes not aligning - if anything I feel like that's something scum would be more aware of? Also the recent inactivity and not doing anything besides defending herself could be because of her V/LA. Actually, dropping alban could be due to the V/LA as well.

Sorry for fence-sitting. I just haven't come up with a picture that makes sense yet. :/

[awesomeusername]

Before we hammer, can we hear from albans and Scorpious on these two wagons? They've been fence-sitting worse than me.

Also I think I still prefer Carca.

I don't claim.

Also, the irony of this is hilarious.

[awesomeusername]

Wait, Mario, why are you hammering? I thought you didn't like the case on Vedith?

[awesomeusername]

To clarify, I don't think Mario's switch is scummy - I'm town reading him at the moment. I just wanted to know what motivated it.

[awesomeusername]

If you guys are done.

@alban, Scorpious:

Would still appreciate your thoughts on Vedith and Carcalilly.

PEdit: Oh. Never mind for alban I guess then.

[awesomeusername]

He self-hammered.

[awesomeusername]

@alban: Why are you sure he's town? And what are your thoughts on Carca?

[awesomeusername]

Really? I'm wondering why his read on you is so strong because I find you very difficult to read, and between 514 and 608 I'm unclear what his stance on Carca is. These are the same questions I had pre-hammer.

[awesomeusername]

...what view am I changing?

[awesomeusername]

Cool, thanks.

[awesomeusername]

I feel like the Carca flip more or less clears Llama, which is good because I didn't townread him before. Also notable: Llama's logic about Scorpious in 612 holds, so I'm inclined to think he's town as well. This leaves me leaning town on everyone. :/ My weakest tier of town reads has Scorpious, alban, and Why Mafia, so I guess I'll start here.

@WM: I would also like to know why you town-read me, especially after these flips.

@Mulch: What do you think of Scorpious's reaction to Vedith's claim?

I agree that we should be looking at the wagons yesterday. IMO the worst ones on Vedith were WhyMafia's and Scorpious's, just in terms of lame reasoning/sheeping, and none of the votes on Carca ping me except for maybe Why Mafia again. But that doesn't particularly feel like a bus, although I guess I could see it. The RVS vote on Vedith from alban is just... I don't even know what to make of that. He was pretty upset after Vedith got lynched, which felt genuine to me. Io's was a strange interaction too, but I thought the rage quit was kinda town. I might be confbiasing there, though. Llama I felt was the driving force behind the Vedith lynch, although I also feel that he helped catch Carca? Like at one point I was scum reading Llama for attacking Carca badly, which doesn't make any sense if they're both scum.

[awesomeusername]

Llama made the most compelling case on Carca, if I recall. I think most everyone else on the wagon except for Steel, whose reasons I don't recall, either sheeped that case or was just like "Carca is scummy." I mean 590 was Llama's strongest case on Carca, and then 591 and 592 were both votes towards Carca. Although to be fair, Tchill was scumreading her before that.

Where do you see hedging in his Carca-case? I don't remember getting that vibe.

Also re: Why Mafia, noted.

PEdit: Yeah, agree that those first two reasons are fakeable.

[awesomeusername]

Oh, that kind of hedging - I remember him going after both slots, but it didn't really ping me at the time. I felt like he just had two scum reads, although Vedith was partially policy as well. I can definitely see how that's a problem.

@alban: Can you also give reasons for your townread on Carcalilly?

[awesomeusername]

I was going to post but now I have to catch up again. :/

I am simultaneously pretty convinced by Llama's case, and agree with Steel that there's not enough back and forth in his reads. At this point I'm like 85% that one of Mulch and Llama is scum.

[awesomeusername]

Wait, do you think Llama's misguided town?

[awesomeusername]

@Mulch: I mean that's not the only reason I'm suspicious of Llama. I just brought it up because Steel mentioned it and I agreed.

In 973, am I the person that you're saying is misrepping?

@Steel: Mulch convinced me otherwise with the Llama clear. And my read on Io was one those reads that I looked back on and realized was probably stronger than it should have been. Also, as I said, Llama's case is kinda convincing? It probably helps that I had been thinking about the possibility of Mulch-scum when he posted it. But yeah, you're right, that number's probably too high.

[awesomeusername]

@Mulch's 985 (will get to anything else later):

Eh, I was going to quote Llama's post and give you point-by-point which I agreed with and which I didn't (I can still do that if you want), but I don't feel that would be representative of my thoughts because honestly I hadn't read it super thoroughly, just nodded along with some of the points, which I thought was interesting because he's one of my suspects. I agree with his 1) that you seem really self-aware (didn't you call WM out for that a couple of pages ago?), and that that's a minor scumtell, but disagree with 2) because I don't see your indecision thus far as scummy, more just trying to gather information before deciding, and I don't remember you basing anything on tone. Although actually, in retrospect, I suppose you could be waiting to see which wagon takes off, but meh, didn't really get that vibe.

The Io stuff was more convincing on my first read through. :/ I definitely didn't agree with Io's logic on Carca being scum only if Vedith is, and now that it's been pointed out, that is a suspicious conclusion to come to with some questionable logic. And the scum-team makes sense otherwise - Io focusing on Vedith, Carca town reading Io. I guess it's also somewhat convincing what you pointed out that scum wouldn't townread each other without a good reason... not really sure I'm reading that interaction strongly either way. And the point about the MM4 vote, where Io didn't mention she was voting with Carca - that makes sense with them as a scum team. Self-meta is meh, I don't have enough experience to say either way.

Anyway, my train of thought was that your last paragraph of 956 stood out to me, because you said if you were scum you'd be "dominating town and be widely townread," and that's sorta what was happening up until then? (yes, you went on to clarify some differences) Then Llama made a big post pointing at you-scum, and I conf-biased a bit. Then I thought about the remaining suspects - other than you two, I think it's alban or Scorpious. And based on the goon flip, I agree with what someone said earlier (I think you?) that there are likely 3 mafia, so either I'm wrong about one of my harder town reads, both alban and Scorpious are maf, there are only two scum, or one of you two is scum. So I think it's likely that this is TvS because of PoE: you're two of my four suspects. There's also another reason I'd rather not say more on because it's PR spec.

In retrospect though, yeah, that number's definitely too high, because 1) there could be only two mafia total, 2) you're not really as big a scumread for me as the others. Since then, though, it has kinda rubbed me the wrong way that you keep insisting this is TvT? Like the wording of that is kind of weird as opposed to just saying you think Llama's town. I guess it makes based on your scum-case on me, though.

[awesomeusername]

@Mulch:
Sorry, I can clarify anything if you want. I don't think your self-awareness is much of a scumtell, in retrospect (thanks for clarifying why WM's stood out to you). And I understand the point you were making in 956.

Agree that Mario is super towny, although I hadn't even considered that interaction with Carca. I thought the way he approached the wagons yesterday was very, very town, and I liked the feel I got from interactions I had with him. Agree that Steel is super towny as well and that he doesn't make sense as a partner to Carca.

[awesomeusername]

Mulch, have you explained why you think Llama is town? I can't find it.

[awesomeusername]

I feel like I'm doing a bad job expressing my thoughts on everyone. There are a few reads and reasons I have that I haven't really mentioned because the game sort of moved on, so I'm going to summarize now. The reads themselves are fluctuating a bit; part of the reason I'm doing this is to write out my thoughts and try to sort through my biases.

Spoiler: long

Steel

- I've resonated with his thoughts in general. I think the whole no lynch vote to start the game is more likely to come from town than scum, and I liked the way he approached Vedith's claim - skeptical, but ready to game solve if it was true. There's also a few posts that I don't really see scum making, like 557. Not to mention that he parked a vote on Carca while he went on V/LA. The only qualm I have with him at the moment is that 811 seems like taking too much credit.

Also, I like the way he's approaching the alban meta he found, it's similar to what I thought when I looked at it.

Mario

- I really liked the way he approached Vedith and Carca yesterday; he seemed to be analyzing them based on his experience and didn't sheep. He did 180 on Vedith when Vedith refused to claim, which could be a convenient way to hop on the wagon I guess but I feel like at that point scum!Mario would stay off and try to get town points for fighting a mislynch. Also I agree that Carca attacking him makes him unlikely to be her buddy. His posts today are meh but not bad - I understand why I'm being attacked for 971. :/

Why Mafia

- I feel like I can follow his train of thought, though I don't agree with everything. I think we have similar play styles, or at least he thinks we do, which is NAI of course but it's applicable to me trying to read him. There have been a couple of times where he reacted to something in a way that resonated with the way I reacted, hence the townread. I'm not sure I understand why alban thinks he's scummy? I think it's because he sees WM as not really doing anything productive, and pushing albans with a bad case, but I'm having trouble finding where alban argues that WM is mafia as opposed to that he himself is not. (Besides 1018 which doesn't seem strong enough for alban's read.) I can see WM's case coming from town or scum, it doesn't really ping me. I think my townread on WM is mostly just because resonance, and it feels like he's doing stuff without trying too hard to look town. I think albans directly disagrees with this, and I'd like to talk about why.

The points I have against him are the late switch to Vedith yesterday, like he could have been bussing, and I haven't been able to shake the feeling that he's been trying to buddy me. He makes more sense as Carca's buddy than some of the other players. I think my reasoning on both sides is pretty weak, now that I'm looking at them, but my gut wants to believe he's town.

Mulch

- I think I've already gone into detail as to my thoughts on Mulch in the first half of 996. Io's interactions with Carca could be from scum (I don't really see the buddying attempt as that strong an argument, sorry - actually, it's a little strange to me that that's your reason for saying Io was town, although it seems to fit your style of hunting), and he's really self-aware. He claims the self-awareness is not scummy from him - I need to dig up some meta on him before making a decision on that. Also, the repeated claims that he's practically confirmed town make me not want to town read him. Also, he seems like really experienced scum, so I think it makes sense to townread him less easily.

Otherwise, though, I really like what he's been doing today. He feels like he's actively trying to figure out the gamestate and read people, and the way he's doing it is deep and nuanced and feels genuine. Some people have pointed out the interactions between him and WM - nothing really stood out to me about them except his meta-townread on WM, which I was inclined at first to believe because Mulch just seemed so town, but I'm realizing that I should probably take that with a grain of salt. I also haven't looked deeply into anything he said after page 42-ish.

alban

- I think what was throwing me off about alban is that I somehow got from 214 that he's a logical player, and he's actually very much an emotional player (rereading, I understand what he's trying to say now - that was a misreading and my fault). As I was rereading that, I also noticed that he seems to be fulfilling his self-scum-meta more than his self-town-meta, and we've already caught scum for that. I think the main argument against him right now is that he hasn't really done much, but has tried to look like he's doing things. I don't think leaving his vote on Vedith is alignment indicative - I think he was just busy. His rage in twilight also felt genuine. And I'd forgotten about Carca's interactions with him from yesterday - I don't think it's impossible that's a bus, but it is a point in favor of town-alban. He didn't really mention Carca much himself, though, and I'm curious what happened in between 514 and 608.

So I went and looked at some of alban's ISOs in past games, and in general he seems more emotional and self-righteous as town, where as scum he seemed more cheerful and willing to work with people. This points to alban being town in this game, although I generally don't like using meta for anything besides gauging style because it's easily manipulatable. Also the whole deal where he dismisses people, tunnels, and/or has really sticky votes is typical. Also notable: alban frequently quits games out of frustration with other players as town, so the rage yesterday was pretty normal. It's actually kind of weird that he withdrew the replacement request. I agree with Steel, I think, that all this meta is probably NAI, when all is said and done. But I think it explains away some of his scumminess.

That said, I do agree he isn't doing much besides defending. And he's really, really, really self-aware; I think multiple times now he's misinterpreted a post as directed at him when it's not. This is probably NAI to be honest, based on his meta, but it kinda reads like scum paranoia. My gut really wants to townread him but I'm not really able to find good reasons to do so, which suggests my gut is wrong. Maybe I'm just falling for AtE. :/

Scorpious

- The more Scorpious posts, the better I feel about him. I suspected him Day 1 because he didn't really contribute much and seemed to be slipping under the radar, and also because most of his posts were either IIoA or randomly pointing out that something was scummy, without any real follow-through, and read to me more as random shade-casting or discrediting than sorting. His posts today definitely feel like genuine sorting, though - he's reading pretty in-depth, I think, whereas yesterday felt more like surface-reading. Also, I feel like his suspicion of Mulch doesn't really benefit scum-Scorpius that much. He's not very open, but I think that's just his style. I understand why for some he's still a suspect just by PoE but I don't think I want to go after him today.

Llama

- So I briefly suspected Llama yesterday because I thought 567 was a misrep of Carca. He subtly dropped the point (I think?), and obviously, knowing that Carca is scum, it doesn't make sense for one scum to twist the facts to attack another. Also, he did make the big argument against Carca yesterday that led to the wagon, although I think Vedith can take some credit for the wagon as well. This suggested to me that Llama's very likely town, although as Mulch pointed out, it's possible he was bussing since he did end up on Vedith, the counter wagon, instead, and was hedging a bit. So I guess he's not cleared, then.

I think one of the reasons I'm having a hard time getting a handle on him is that, like Mulch, he seems like he could be experienced scum, so I'm not going to townread him as easily. Also I keep looking at his posts and thinking, "Wow, that's a really good case" and then looking more closely and it's not as strong as it first appears - this is probably my fault, but the fact that his posts appear better on the first glance than the second rubs me the wrong way. The way he frames his cases also makes difficult for me to see his train of thought - his reads are already so well developed by the time he posts, so he might be deciding who to attack and then justifying it? People also keep accusing him of twisting facts/lying - I did first in 585, but I liked the rest of his case so I dropped it. In retrospect, I'm not sure that actually got resolved? I haven't looked closely enough at the other accusations to see whether they hold water. It's kind of weird that he drops certain points, though, like what I brought up in 585.

On the other hand, he has been making strong pushes, and he's been consistent and sticks to his guns. I think he's made some really good points, and in several places I seem him actively trying to get inside people's heads. While I was initially skeptical of his lack of doubt, rereading, I can see some. And the policy lynch is NAI.

In summary, I kinda gut scumread Llama, but I'm also getting town vibes from him just because he's trying harder to read people than some of the other players. I'm also still not sure how much sense he makes as a partner to Carca.

I think I'm comfortable saying my overall readlist would be something like this:
{Steel, Mario}
{Scorpious}
{WM, Mulch}
{alban, Llama}

tl;dr:
I think Steel is town.
I think Mario is town.
I don't understand what alban finds scummy about WM. Otherwise I guess he seems town because resonance?
Mulch pings me in a couple ways but he seems town.
A lot of alban's scumminess can be attributed to meta but I'm having a hard time finding a convincing reason to townread him. I want more from him.
I think Scorpious is likely town.
I have some problems with Llama's play but have doubts based on Carca interactions and Llama scum hunting.

Edit: alban

[awesomeusername]

@Mulch: Did you plan that rant or was it spur-of-the-moment?

Also, you clearly think Llama's lying about certain points. Do you think he's knowingly fudging points or accidentally getting stuff wrong?

@alban (if you're sticking around): Can you present a case on WM-scum please? I don't really see reasons in your ISO beyond "he's not doing anything" and presumably that his case on you is bad.

Also, you said he has "no thoughts." Can you clarify what you mean by a thought? Because he's giving stances and reasoning, regardless of how good or bad you think they are.

@Scorpious: Why do you scumread MM4? I'm town reading him fairly hard right now.

Alban's replace-out kinda makes me want to hard town-read him, but I feel kinda dirty about it because it's for meta reasons.

[awesomeusername]

i really don't like awesome's chaining up of llama -> alban i'm not particularly feeling scum in either which is what i was saying earlier

What do you mean by "chaining up"? Or is the problem just that you disagree with my reads?

@AUN - Why did you not ever vote near the end of the day?

I didn't want to put Carca at L-1 while she was on V/LA, and I wasn't ready to lynch yet anyway.

@Mulch 1196: Maybe I shouldn't be reading into it quite this much, but alban in particular really replaces out a lot as town. But if you think it's NAI, why'd you move your vote?

@Mulch 1198: Hrmm, I could kind of tell it was at least partially premeditated. That's why I'm not town reading the rage. It's interesting that you think Llama's intentionally making stuff up but are still town reading him. :/ Like I guess making blanket assumptions based on a "tell" is bad but I'm not sure how you can ever get inside someone's head that deeply.

Also, just in general, I'm having a really hard time getting inside your head, thought I'd let you know. I think at least a part of it is experience gap. Can you explain why, say, Scorpious not interacting with Carca indicates town while alban's emotions are NAI? They both just seem like meta to me - I don't see a difference.

@Mulch 1201: The gut scumread might honestly just be intimidation, combined with the fact that he's pretty manipulative. Actually, I'm kinda coming around to him. His reads are evolving, which is good to see.

Also, I don't think Scorpious is scum. What's beetlejuice?

The winds changed direction after I left, and so did whymafia's tune.

I noticed that, too.

@Mulch: How certain are you on your read on WhyMafia right now?

@alban:

@alban: Can you present a case on WM-scum please? I don't really see reasons in your ISO beyond "he's not doing anything" and presumably that his case on you is bad.

Also, you said he has "no thoughts." Can you clarify what you mean by a thought? Because he's giving stances and reasons, regardless of how good or bad you think they are.

[awesomeusername]

Alban, I disagree with some of your logic in 1222. In particular, I appreciate that you think I'm a little townier, but I don't think you should townread me (or bump a scumread to a null or whatever) just for effort. :/ Also, while it's probably "correct" to take your replace-out as NAI, I'm not really sure how that makes Mulch townier. I guess it further shows that he's analyzing thoroughly but like, I've been convinced of that for a while now. Sheeping the majority is a bit scummy though - is that your point?

For what it's worth, alban's and WM's rage both read as genuine to me.

@Mulch 1201: The gut scumread might honestly just be intimidation, combined with the fact that he's pretty manipulative. Actually, I'm kinda coming around to him. His reads are evolving, which is good to see.

How are his reads evolving........... jesus christ

His read on alban evolved when he realized he was misreading alban's read list (1176-1186). And his read on me changed somewhere, because now I'm null. Admittedly, that's not a lot but it's more than before - or maybe I just didn't notice before. I guess you're just reading that as the tunnel intensifying, but it makes me think he has been keeping an eye on the rest of us.

@Scorpious: What about WM's reaction to alban returning seems fake to you?

I don't think Scorpious' recent posts have been that terrible, although I understand why they're under fire. In particular 1229 pinged me as well, but it's consistent with his play so far of pointing out random things he thinks are scummy, and voting people for single incidents. This general trend is scummy, actually, but for different reasons.

So here's the thing about the recent displays of emotion. If WM's rage is real, that pretty directly points to him being town, because he's mad about being manipulated. If alban's rage is real, that's NAI since he was mostly just offended if I'm interpreting things correctly - I'm kinda town reading it because he has a history of doing this as town, but it's a pretty weak tell because it's meta. Mulch's rage almost makes more sense to me from scum than from town. I mean, I believe you when you say you're really self-conscious as town - so this could definitely come from town-you as well - but like, I don't really understand where some of your statements are coming from if you're town.

@Mulch: Why do you think Llama tunneling you will make town lose? Especially since you're so townread otherwise? Also, wouldn't it be good for you not to be night killed if you're that obvtown and probably one of the better scum hunters in the game?

[awesomeusername]

I was going to post intent to hammer but I re-read Scorpious and still don't really want to lynch him. As much I dislike his play thus far, I think he's town. I don't really have an alternative to offer, though. :/ I guess if it had to be Scorpious or WM, I'd vote for WM. We've still got time though.

@Scorpious: Can you do me a favor and summarize your understanding of why people are suspecting you? Like, someone voting you has to be town; why do you think they're voting you?

Also, I read some Mulch meta and the posturing and insistence that he's obvtown is pretty typical. He didn't seem that self-conscious in the town-game I read, though. And he's usually more trolly. Admittedly, I didn't look specifically for a game in which someone hard-tunneled him, but I've relieved one concern, I guess.

@Mulch: I understand the motivation for scum not to kill you. I'm asking why Llama's tunnel means auto-lose.

VOTE: llama

THis is not a vote for scum hunting. This is a vote that says, you lose us the game if you are not killed right now.

[awesomeusername]

@Mulch: Fair enough I guess.

I think it was 1923? You were lynched D1 but didn't seem too bothered. I only read your ISO though. I also read 1920 but you were actually semi-confirmed town that time so that was different.

@WM - How are Scorp and AUN your top two scum reads? You were voting alban until just a few pages ago.

I'll let WM elaborate but I don't think this is correct? Edit: Never mind. Thought he just left alban temporarily because it wasn't happening.

[awesomeusername]

^^^ I think Llama is posting intent there.

See here's why I think Scorpious is town:

1. I actually think he doesn't see why posts like 391 and 1229 have scum motivation behind them, which implies that the scum motivation isn't there. (This is why I asked him why people are scum reading him.) Like, look at what he apologizes for in 471. And I'm inclined to believe 482, although I suppose he could just be covering.
2. He doesn't seem to care whether people townread him. Like the standoff with Mulch's questions doesn't seem like it'd be a good idea for scum-Scorpious.
3. (and this is much weaker) It does seem like he genuinely believed the Vedith claim, which would be impossible if Carca was his partner.

I guess a lot of this is tonal, because it comes down to whether or not you believe what he says (like always in mafia, I guess), and he could be totally suckering me. But I think misunderstanding things and his reaction to the Vedith claim are pretty hard to fake. I think I'd prefer anyone to Scorpious right now except {me, Steel, Mario}.

[awesomeusername]

Need to think about this claim. I'm more skeptical of Scorpious than before, though.

@Scorpious: The way you'd use a weak doctor is to say (or I guess heavily crumb) beforehand who you're targeting, and then if you die town will probably figure out how. And if you live you have conf-town, which is really good. And since you're 1-shot you can out at that point. Tbh, it's probably even better if you die because then you catch scum.

[awesomeusername]

After some thought, I

think

I believe it. I don't want to say more and mess up Llama's traps though.

[awesomeusername]

Right now I prefer WM. I've been getting town-vibes from Llama recently.

[awesomeusername]

It's kinda gut, but I liked his thoughts on the Scorpious wagon and that he's thinking about traps. We'll see in a moment if that latter reason is invalid, anyway.

[awesomeusername]

Oh. Why?

[awesomeusername]

Ah, I see, that makes sense. I still think he's more town though.

Also, I disagree that WM is a consensual scumread - at least two other people are hard-townreading him - although honestly I think that's a point in his favor.

VOTE: Why Mafia

EDIT: Let's talk about claims as little as possible. Also I might prefer Llama to alban. >.>

[awesomeusername]

L-2

[awesomeusername]

^^^ I'm going to take that as Scorpious agreeing with Llama's plan.

UNVOTE:

There are some holes in this if Scorp and I are both scum, or if I'm a mafia doctor. Otherwise, I like the plan but would like Steel to double-check it and compare it to his.

[awesomeusername]

VOTE: No Lynch

[awesomeusername]

In retrospect, yes, we probably should've had more discussion on who the target should be, but it's twilight now so let's not introduce any uncertainty. I'm the target, end of discussion.

Besides, I wouldn't be as comfortable using a plan on Llama that he himself created - he could've worked in a loophole for himself.

[awesomeusername]

Votes off Scorpious for now, please, let's not waste our day with a clear.

Also I don't find the kill

that

surprising. I'm thinking about whether it's optimal to do mass claim today or tomorrow - thoughts?

EDIT: ^^^Did Mario just slip?

[awesomeusername]

I'm still inclined to think Scorpious is town, but if you all really want to lynch him, we might want to massclaim. I was thinking about this overnight - whether mafia kills Scorpious or elsewhere, it still kinda frames me or Scorpious respectively.

I gotta go now, but I'll be back in a few hours with an order decided, if you all want to massclaim. Still haven't heard from like half the playerlist. Please don't quicklynch in my absence.

If we lynched elsewhere, where would you vote?

[awesomeusername]

Sorry for the delay.

Looks like we're doing massclaim, so order is:

Llama -> Mulch -> WM -> alban -> Mario

[awesomeusername]

Okay, unvote Scorpious, then, please.

The claim order wasn't exactly in the same order as my read list but it was close and that's constantly changing anyway. :/ It was a combination of suspicion, likelihood of being a PR, and likelihood of getting away with a PR claim as scum.

I still don't know who scum is.

I wondered whether

Llama

was trying to buddy me, the future clear, at the end of yesterday - I'm sincerely flattered that he thinks I'm useful but I'm not sure being able to "words good" is very helpful. The night kill and his behavior today is compatible with that theory as well. Ceding to the clear is also more or less optimal as town, though, so I'm not very certain. He's also implicitly taking stances opposite of our scum, namely that I'm a threat as a clear and that the Steel kill doesn't make sense, so I'm not sure what to make of that - it kinda feels like distancing himself from the kill. And I know he likes theory talk - I do too - but I'd like more hunting and analysis from him today.

I suspected

WM

most at the end of yesterday, but I think the Steel kill makes the least sense from him (partially because I suspected him most). I'd still like an explanation of why Mulch and Mario townread him so strongly. Admittedly I haven't made it through the town games he posted yet, but I'm not convinced of the similarity? Also, he was a PR in both of those games, and Mulch you were mafia in both of those games, so why are you so confident in your ability to read him?

Mario

I still townread from D1. I didn't like how he sorta slipped under the radar D2, but there were a few posts that I liked, such as 1318 (I like the idea because I had a thought along similar lines, although needs more backup argument) and he has an energy that isn't desperate or resigned, so my read didn't slip terribly much. Curious to see what new reads he comes up with, though.

I'm not really sure what I think about

Mulch

. I feel like in an ordinary game I'd probably be townreading him, but since everybody feels town right now, I dunno. The reason I've been so worried about his insistence that he's town is that lone scum at this point (and on D2 also) pretty much have to climb to the top of the town pile, so this sort of thing is what scum have to do. Meta suggests it's NAI though. And I do like his scum hunting. But Io's interactions with Carca were also strange, and his anger with Llama still feels... weird to me.

I don't know what to think about

alban

either. Looking back, I think his interactions with Carca don't clear him as much as I thought? Like, Carca's bus of him was very weak if she wasn't voting him for a long time - not sure why I thought this had to be TvS. The thing that bugs me most about that interaction is 155/158/159 - is this too weird to be SvS? Also he does seem to be playing to his town meta pretty well. Objectively, though, he's really defensive and a lot of his early posts seem more town-looking than genuinely town.

@Scorpious: You're also nearly clear now, so you and I need to work together. Why WM or Mulch?

@Anyone who knows stuff about balance: With a 2-shot vig and 1-shot weak doc, I imagine we have 2 scum and not 3, right? And would we expect the remaining one to be a goon then? Wiki says 11-2 mountainous is considered balanced, so this seems about right to me?

We're in a pretty good spot, I think. 1 scum out of 5 people, and we get 3 lynches. I also feel pretty good about my Mario townread, although I should probably reread him, so that gives us like a 75% chance at worst if that read's correct.

[awesomeusername]

@alban: I need you to answer these questions as honestly as possible, please, even if you're trying to set up a gambit or whatever, because you're very likely to be lynched at this point.

Why didn't you target Scorpious N2? This seems like the obvious play.

Is "Watcher" your full role? No modifiers?

Why didn't you claim this during massclaim?

@People who know things about balance: What do we expect to see on scum side from Watcher+2-shot Vig? What about Watcher+2-shot Vig+1-shot Weak Doc?

[awesomeusername]

Would like to hear alban's response to my questions before hammering.

Can someone unvote please?

[awesomeusername]

:/ Okay, I can wait for a bit.

^^^Llama's thoughts are very similar to mine right now. I don't think 3 scum is impossible, though, although with up to 3 deaths N1 it does seem very unlikely.

@alban: I'd also like to know your thoughts on Scorpious's claim.

[awesomeusername]

Don't quickhammer, I have things to set up.

[awesomeusername]

On the off-chance that Scorpious was lying about the number of shots he has, he's targeting Llama tonight.

I've already given my reads but I'm like 80% that this ends the game anyway. I don't think it's Mario. Obviously, Scorpious isn't clear if alban flips town, but I still townread him tbh. No idea between the others tbh.

Hammer away. You can have the honors, Mulch.

I'm sorry this game has been so unpleasant for you alban, but if you're self-voting as town's most powerful PR I don't have much sympathy for that.

[awesomeusername]

I'm really tempted to lynch elsewhere just because we can do so much with alban's claim and it's not like he'll make it to endgame anyway, but this self-vote. >.>

[awesomeusername]

TBH the "correct" move was probably to let him live one more day and force stuff to happen tonight.

I feel like this ends the game, though. There's just so many things about that claim that don't make any sense to me from either alignment. :/

[awesomeusername]

Ha, that kill is hilarious! How great would it be if town won this setup without ever lynching scum? Tchill had another shot in his gun. I'm disappointed that I read Scorpious wrong, though. Good catch with me being conf-town, I don't think I would've caught that myself.

So my notes from yesterday after alban flipped town (sorry alban, I'm an idiot):

I thought it was odd that WM assumed alban was a watcher of some alignment - my thought process was more "he's town watcher or some random scum role," not "he's town watcher or scum watcher." I guess that kinda makes sense because watcher is somewhat confirmable, but with all the claimed PR's either used up or dead, there'd be no way to confirm him so it was a safe claim.

Llama was the only one not fully behind the lynch. While I initially read Llama keeping his head as a pro-town way of playing, it could also be mafia knowing how to navigate successfully. And he was hedging kinda hard. I usually do this, too, though, and should have slowed down this time for once. :/

Regarding last night's kill, I suspect Scorpious was killed because he was the 3rd PR claim. Sure, he had no shots left, but it still made him likely to be town. There's also this:

On the off-chance that Scorpious was lying about the number of shots he has, he's targeting Llama tonight.

But that could just as easily be someone framing Llama as Llama playing it safe so meh - I think the first reason is more likely.

TBH I'm also feeling Llama scum at the moment but I want to sleep on it. If WM is scum he would've had to have faked 1618/1619/1621, which is doable but eh. Llama has some fair points, too. We have two lynches left, so I want to get more confident in my Mulch and Mario reads, especially Mulch. My first thought when I saw the flip was that I was the obvious suspect, so 1609/1610/1611 read very naturally to me, for what it's worth - although it could be scum!Mulch realizing he can't push me.

@Llama: Why didn't you set up night actions for alban as you did for Scorpious?

@Mario: Can you explain your WM townread more fully? Also what's your read on Mulch?

[awesomeusername]

Sorry for the inactivity - I'm moving next week so it'll only get more spotty toDay. :/ I'll declare V/LA if I need to but I'll do my best to avoid that.

I realized earlier today that WM is very unlikely to be lynched today since he's being hard-townread by both Mario and Mulch, which is a majority. I kinda read Llama's switch from Mulch to WM as moving to an easier target, but he's actually harder today I think. WM has been under a lot more pressure lately, but a lot of it was from Scorpious and alban.

Are traitors less likely to bus than regular mafia members? I don't see a hard town read on Llama, but he's barely mentioned in Scorpious's ISO and never negatively. I agree he targets WM too much for WM to be the other scum, though, I think. He interacts with Mulch far more than anyone else - I think if he was trying to signal to scum, it was probably Mulch (Perhaps in 1203? That's really late though). And he throws a lot of shade on Mulch with no actual follow-up. He keeps scum reading Mulch but never voted the slot - this could be a bus. Mario has a similar situation actually, where Scorpious keeps scum reading him without voting (see 1076).

Tbh I think Mulch looks the worst judging solely by Scorpious' ISO.

@WM: Why the hard townread on Mulch?

[awesomeusername]

Aha, that didn't show up when I Ctrl+F'd "Llama".

Yeah okay, that's pretty bad too.

[awesomeusername]

You leaning towards Llama then?

[awesomeusername]

On Day 2, sure, but what about Day 3?

[awesomeusername]

I'm not really sure what to think of the "twilight post." Doesn't strike me as particularly genuine or fake. What are your thoughts?

Mulch has played ridiculously scummy throughout the game, but I think has enough grip on what good scum night play would be. Scum night kills have been a comedy of errors just based on lack of them being optimal.

Okay, so I assume this is the post where Llama explains why Mulch is less likely scum than WM. I wanted to see why this view changed after pushing for Mulch so much on Day 2. To Llama's credit, I did notice this shift starting to happen during Day 3; see 1586.

But @Llama: Are you really making this decision based off the weird night kills? I don't think I like that. I feel like night kills are usually WIFOM-y and weird, and not really a valid reason to lynch one person over another. Is that really the only reason you think Mulch is less scummy? And can you explain why you're so confident in your NKA?

@Llama's 1654: I want to point out that LUV and WM are the same slot, and Carcalilly definitely played Connect Four with LUV, so it's not true that she didn't interact with the slot. There's an RVS(?) vote in 102 and a light defend in 263. Tbh this might actually support your case, unless you think two scum wouldn't want to associate themselves early game. Scorpious also RVS votes LUV in 99.

While I'm at it, Llama's slot is IAI at the time. Scorpious' 142 is hilarious in hindsight if both LUV/WM and Carca are scum, while 391/392 are quite odd if Scorpious knows IAI/Llama is scum. Also, I recall IAI falling under suspicion for shading the Connect Four players in 106, and has a weird anti-follow-up in 116. And he RVS votes Carca in 69. I kinda don't think that literally all IAI did in the game was push on/interact with his buddy. I mean it's not impossible, but I'm kinda talking myself out of Llama right now. :/

@Llama: Clearly you disagree now, but in 1257 you said WM was "town for D1 play." Can you explain why you thought that at the time? And if possible, why you 180'd? Also can you respond to this (sorry, lots of questions for you):

Llama how are you so confident in Mario town? Besides the weird day 1 thing but it's scummy to me that you've basically locked him as town over one thing, like it's not deserved.

@WM, Mulch: What do you think about scum!Llama proposing the plan at the end of Day 2? I get that he can do it to look town, but do you think this play is worth it?

In other news, I kind of town read Mulch's paranoia of me. I also thought briefly about who each hypothetical mafia might think their traitor is, but I think whoever it is, they assumed Scorpious' claim was legit because so few power roles. I still think that's why he died.

[awesomeusername]

/prod dodge

Haven't had time to read what I wanted to. Going to be thinking about Mario a little bit, although I kinda agree with him that WM's tone is sketchy in 1717. I think Scorpious' interactions with WM make him a bad lynch though.

I don't like Llama pushing on the alban lynch when he didn't try to stop it either. His different reactions to the weak doctor claim and the watcher claim kinda bug me.

[awesomeusername]

Blergh, I dunno guys.

I don't want to lynch WM today based on Scorpious interactions. He's definitely conf-biasing though, and his case isn't very convincing. (although it should be noted that doesn't necessarily make him right or wrong).

I haven't had time to reread Mario as fully as I wanted to. Tbh he very well could be the last scum and that's why the other options don't make sense. I suppose that would explain why I'm still alive and mafia hasn't seemed concerned about me being confirmed town, since I've been town reading him. And he feels less town than I remember him feeling. My biggest concern about lynching him would I think be Carca's push on him. And he has some good spots in his ISO, but so does everyone. :/

Between Mulch and Llama, I just kinda think Llama is scummier. Mulch feels much less like he has an agenda, I guess.

I was going to vote Llama here, but I chickened out again. :/ I'll vote first thing tomorrow morning - we can't afford a no lynch. Probably between Llama and Mario, just by PoE.

So there are some definite problems with the Llama lynch, like reasons #1 and #3 below. I disagree with #2 because Llama was actually hedging pretty hard, not so much trying to set up shenanigans with alban. I feel like scum!Llama would realize how powerful watcher was, and that he would likely be hosed if alban protected me and I continued to scumread him - but at the same time, scum!Llama knows town!Llama would be all over that sort of thing, so he couldn't just ignore it. And for #3, I barely recall Scorpious interacting with Llama, and I don't think scum!Llama would expect Scorpious to defend him. Even if so, Scorpious didn't have that much weight to throw around. It's a fair point that I'm probably a better kill than Scorpious for scum!Llama though, even if I weren't clear.

Give me my scum motivation for

1) Gaining an extra lynch by keeping Scorp alive.
2) Trying to set up a tactic that let alban essentially act as a doctor
3) Killing the player who would defend me instead of killing the confirmed town.

[awesomeusername]

VOTE: Llama

I'll be online again before deadline if I need to hammer elsewhere.

[awesomeusername]

WM, can you give me like a 3-sentence town case on Llama?