Mini Normal 1957: The Perfect LUV Game [Endgame]

[Lord Gurgi]

Hello, I'm replacing Sheep. Mod hasn't announced it yet, hope this is okay.

Gonna call Derp Hooves/Xiao Long team.

1. Xiao Long claimed scum in his first post.
   
2. When feuds aren't actually trying to lynch each other, it's a distancing technique. Seriously, they've been feuding since Derpy's first post.
   
3. First post admitting that they won't be lynching their reads. In this case, we even get an explicit admission that they won't lynch their read/feud in Derpy's first post. Second post admits to a desire to cast the hammer. Scum behavior.
   
4. Couching scumreads as "I don't like anti-town behavior". This is an attempt to build deniability for leaving the wagon if it accidentally grows. Calling it now that Derpy will attempt to defuse any Xiao Long wagon. "I just dislike him, that's not a reason to lynch him".
   
5. Always wagon "fake" hammers.

VOTE: Xiao Long. Starting with the one I'm more confident on.

PS. Hey Porkens, long time.

[Lord Gurgi]

What does #5 mean?

Also I like that post. Hmmm.

This.

Fuck it, I'm hammering
VOTE: Wossi

That wasn’t a hammer

VOTE: Derpy
I know

As a general rule, don't trust someone who dismisses criticism in one breath with "I was joking" and then complains in the next that people do not take them seriously. It's manipulative behavior that attempts to provide cover in advance for future errors. This is a read of Xiao Long, if that's not obvious.

Also, y'all post too quickly and don't think before posting. It's annoying. Consolidate your responses to a single post please.

Thank you to Derpy for reminding me that htey called for vigilante kills. This is a classic scum move.

[Lord Gurgi]

Xiao Long claimed scum in his first post.

RVS throw away post. Unless you think I trust tell?

All posts matter, whether made in jest or not. This is not a valid defense.

When feuds aren't actually trying to lynch each other, it's a distancing technique. Seriously, they've been feuding since Derpy's first post.

I'm literally voting him now trying to get others to vote him.

[/b]

And he's voting for nobody. I want to see what he does when his supposed read starts getting votes. Too bad for you.

First post admitting that they won't be lynching their reads. In this case, we even get an explicit admission that they won't lynch their read/feud in Derpy's first post. Second post admits to a desire to cast the hammer. Scum behavior.

This was Derpy, not me

Like I said, you're working together. Let's see what Derpy does.

Couching scumreads as "I don't like anti-town behavior". This is an attempt to build deniability for leaving the wagon if it accidentally grows. Calling it now that Derpy will attempt to defuse any Xiao Long wagon. "I just dislike him, that's not a reason to lynch him".

Then this is also about Derpy and not me?

So you agree with the read. Great.

Always wagon "fake" hammers.

Why tho?

Because it's indicative of nervousness or anxiety. We're not in a rush here. Why are you?

Hey Derpy, throw a vote on this wagon. What have you got to lose? You couldn't possibly be sitting on the sideline feebly confirming my points for a reason, could you?

Xiao Long: Saying that you haven't used the joke defense much does not undermine the point. Your defense to Derpy, probably an attempt to make them look more reasonable than me, is similarly weak. So is misinterpreting me: I was saying that Derpy called for the vigilante kill. Not an accusation against you. Good to be defensive and attempt to divert to a third person though. Real tricky of you.

The rest: Thanks for the ego-rubs.

[Lord Gurgi]

WHY DON'T YOU GIVE US REAL ANALYSIS DINNERNOODLES?

For those of you keeping score at home, this is an attempt to divert from my points in favor of attacking those who agree with them.

[Lord Gurgi]

LG: why do you think fake hammer bait is indicative of anxiety?

There is a fundamental connection between anxiety and the perceived weakness, to do with human tendency to view loss as more significant than equivalent gain. Fearing further losses, humans react extremely to even the suggestion of danger. In Mafia, this leads scum to be prone to play around with hammer brinksmanship. Especially it leads them to anticipate dropping the hammer and in turn to attempt to excuse it in advance. Both Derpy and Xiao Long have done this to different degrees.

I'm beginning to feel like XL is low hanging fruit.

Let's pick it.

I feel vindicated by Derpy's sudden cessation of feuding with Xiao Long and continued vigilante calls. Won't lynch him Day One. "Hopes" that a vigilante will kill him Night One. Day Two there will be new information that will make all this a thing of the past.

[Lord Gurgi]

All posts matter, whether made in jest or not. This is not a valid defense.

Yes, ALL posts matter, not just the very first one. Which is why I think hinging your whole case on that post is weak play, and makes me think there's at least one scum constantly blowing up the point so that the sheepish townies will be like, "Durr, makes sense to me he would claim scum during rvs"

That's not the whole of my case against you. This post-hoc milquetoast mafia theory is unimpressive. Does using "Durr" to discredit an argument pass muster these days?

And he's voting for nobody. I want to see what he does when his supposed read starts getting votes. Too bad for you.

Join the club, dawg. I've tried everything I can to get him to vote for SOMEBODY.

Like I said, you're working together. Let's see what Derpy does.

Don't hold your breath.

As I said when I cast the vote, Derpy will refuse to join it despite not retracting his read of you. He'll gradually distance and attempt to use his "I don't vote Day One" strategy to survive tomorrow or revise his read of you if you don't get lynched. Derpy's even admitting to backing off as predicted.

So you agree with the read. Great.

I don't think Derpy will do that. Like I said before, I think he's going to be like, "You guys should reallllly lynch Xiao" the whole time without actually voting so he has some deniability when I flip town.

Ah so the difference between my read of his motivations and yours is that you "know you're town". Please.

Because it's indicative of nervousness or anxiety. We're not in a rush here. Why are you?

I mean, if it were a real hammer I could see that, but I don't get how a fake hammer is indicative of that. Seemed like a good opportunity to try something so I could get some reactions from Wossi, but then Derpy fucked it all up.

See longer response about brinksmanship.

I thought you were claiming I was trying to tell people to vig me.

I'm going to put this in my signature after you get lynched.

[Lord Gurgi]

I'm not using durr to discredit, I'm using it to show how people are just mindlessly agreeing with it instead of doing their own work.

Then we're back to attacking the people who agree with the argument rather than the argument itself. At this point, you've tacitly admitted that you agree with my argument except you know you're town. See below.

As I said when I cast the vote, Derpy will refuse to join it despite not retracting his read of you. He'll gradually distance and attempt to use his "I don't vote Day One" strategy to survive tomorrow or revise his read of you if you don't get lynched. Derpy's even admitting to backing off as predicted.

Then vote Derpy?

I prefer to lynch you first. For reasons why:

Ah so the difference between my read of his motivations and yours is that you "know you're town". Please.

Sure

Any questions?

Can you simplify this, cause it doesn't make any sense at all to me.

Let's try it this way. The scum's fear of being exposed as scum (losing information advantage) is a greater loss than the town's fear of being incorrectly identified as scum. This is the basic axiom from which all theory is derived. From this we can derive, among other things, that scum have a vested interest in brief days. Any lynch is superior to their own, they control information, burn a day, etcetera. If you're town, opening the possibility of a hammer would require you to believe that all the scum are already on that wagon or that the target is scum. Would you like to present longform argument that you believed one of these two things? If so, please explain the Wossi-Derpy team. If not, making a gambit of it risks a day to gain information. This is obviously not an efficient trade for the town. This is why it's called anti-town behavior. This is why you always wagon it.

[Lord Gurgi]

The most you've done to refute my argument is to say that you only jokingly claimed scum once. Otherwise, you just attempt to divert to the people who agree with me. When I call you on that, you just say the case is weak. I'm confident in my read here.

Let's try it this way. The scum's fear of being exposed as scum (losing information advantage) is a greater loss than the town's fear of being incorrectly identified as scum. This is the basic axiom from which all theory is derived. From this we can derive, among other things, that scum have a vested interest in brief days. Any lynch is superior to their own, they control information, burn a day, etcetera. If you're town, opening the possibility of a hammer would require you to believe that all the scum are already on that wagon or that the target is scum. Would you like to present longform argument that you believed one of these two things? If so, please explain the Wossi-Derpy team. If not, making a gambit of it risks a day to gain information. This is obviously not an efficient trade for the town. This is why it's called anti-town behavior. This is why you always wagon it.

I think you're trying too hard here. I was fake hammering to gauge Wossi's reaction. That's literally it.

Awful defense. Your feelings are not material. Present some motive for your behavior that doesn't require me to adopt the a priori belief that you're town.

"If you're town, opening the possibility of a hammer would require you to believe that all the scum are already on that wagon or that the target is scum."
So you think scum will quick hammer at this point and be able to get away with it? Or do you find anyone who puts anyone at L-1 to be scummy? Or you just think anyone who fake hammers is scum? I don't get your logic here.

If you didn't think scum would hammer, why would you burn a day for that information rather than just lynch Wossi? If you think town would hammer, then it is not a gambit, but an attempt to lynch and hasten the day.

[Lord Gurgi]

If you think scum would hammer, why would you burn a day for that information rather than just lynch Wossi? If you think town would hammer, then it is not a gambit, but an attempt to lynch and hasten the day.

Fixed.

[Lord Gurgi]

Xiao Long: I have made my case against you and Derpy clearly and multiple times. I'm not going to keep restating it. You have both responded as predicted.

Let's get the rope folks.

[Lord Gurgi]

Xiao Long: I don't think your questions are made in good faith. I think they're (feeble) attempts to muddy the waters. I won't be answering them.

The Wossi wagon is stupid. If Derpy actually believed in it, he'd vote rather than continue to lie in wait to drop the hammer.

[Lord Gurgi]

"Lie in wait" is a phrase, not an accusation of falsehood.

There is no reason not to vote for "confirmed scum". Shoot coward, you'll only kill a man.

[Lord Gurgi]

The one thing I’m not is a liar.

Are you scum?

[Lord Gurgi]

DH: Liar.

XL: Law of Holes.

[Lord Gurgi]

Nauci run me through why you aren't voting for Wossi if you need that explained. The coordinated move of both Nauci and XL to Mumble makes me think I may have been wrong about Derpy.

[Lord Gurgi]

Are you guys seriously speculating on people being SK before the first night? One of the major responsibilities of town is not to be a raving lunatic that distracts the rest of the town. You (probably) can't all be scum, so stop playing like this.

[Lord Gurgi]

Speculation about SKs before the first night is baseless. Baseless speculation about the setup is distraction. Distracting the town is scummy.

Did all mafia theory degrade into stupidity in my absence?

[Lord Gurgi]

Blowing up over exactly two posts regarding a possibility is probably more distracting, Gurgle

Crazymaking.

[Lord Gurgi]

Like even if you are town and think he’s scum, why wouldn’t you continue talking to him and use it to your advantage? This is the biggest problem I have with Derpys neighborhood argument, none of his decisions actually make sense from a strategic viewpoint.

Blowing up over exactly two posts regarding a possibility is probably more distracting, Gurgle

Crazymaking.

Huh?
Nvm your explanations are fucking obnoxious to read.

Contradiction in about a minute.

[Lord Gurgi]

You're at T-2, which is a good indication that the case I have presented is not incoherent to others.

[Lord Gurgi]

Except most people have been scum reading me since before you replaced in. You’re giving yourself too much credit. Besides, I’m referring to your nonsensical fake hammer being scummy argument.

If you want to attribute your wagon to your play rather than my argument, that's fine with me.

[Lord Gurgi]

Threatening to replace out should be against forum rules.

[Lord Gurgi]

What you're doing is making threats to ruin the game or refuse to play if we don't do what you want. Stop.

[Lord Gurgi]

I think there are two.

[Lord Gurgi]

Every person in this game with a town read on you justifies it by meta.

[Lord Gurgi]

How would you know my meta?

[Lord Gurgi]

Every person in this game with a town read on you justifies it by meta.

They shouldn’t though.

I can't even begin to grasp what your life must be like. At this point, I have to conclude that you are so deeply illogical, stubborn, and frenetic that I can't be sure of your motivation one way or the other.

Honestly the playstyles of the people in this game are exasperating. Are you guys trying to help the town win or so confound everything that you personally survive and maybe win the game by chance?

[Lord Gurgi]

I don't really do town reads. Wossi is as close as I'd go to a town read.

[Lord Gurgi]

Nauci can you explain your read on me?

[Lord Gurgi]

I dislike this speculation about the makeup of the scum because it inevitably introduces the opportunity for the scum to interfere. Far too easy to push a "3 scum" narrative to discount an apparent pair, or to pursue a pair in opposition to the "3 scum" theory. Far too easy to indict a loner as SK. The best indication is the number of kills that comes in the first night. Until then we are best off keeping ourselves constrained to speculation about the connection between individuals without deliberate consideration of whether it makes sense for the setup.

Just an update on my reads: Derpy looking less scummy, Nauci looking more scummy. Don't like Wossi's latest vote but also don't think it's a scum indicator. Actually ready to abandon the XL/Derpy connection. How do people feel about a proper Nauci wagon?

Chickadee and Porkens: I know you're smarter and can lend more to the town than you are currently.

[Lord Gurgi]

This isn't a change from me, Derpy. I spoke out against speculation about SKs and calls for SK kills. I don't regard the three-scum or two-scum debate as different. It's a distraction. Once we lynch two scum we'll worry if there's a third.

[Lord Gurgi]

Been drinking Derpy. My bad.

Wave: Before I make any kind of case, what are your feelings?

[Lord Gurgi]

You still think as you did more than 300 posts ago?

[Lord Gurgi]

How many more pages do you people need?

Would you compromise for a Nauci lynch?

[Lord Gurgi]

I'm not interested in lynching Wossi. Many people agree on XL but for some reason don't want to do it today.

[Lord Gurgi]

I'm not interested in lynching xl. Many ppl agree Wossi should be the Lynch today.

We have a voting system to determine this kind of thing.

[Lord Gurgi]

I'm saying an XL lynch is superior. All the moreso because of tchill's reaction.

Derpy fucking vote then.

[Lord Gurgi]

Site meta has shifted to the point that calling for the vig to shoot somebody happens probably almost every game or every other game.

Calling that out as scummy is fake news.

We eat children here now. Happens all the time. Saying that's immoral is fake news.

[Lord Gurgi]

Confirmed town or not, Derpy is useless to us. I'm still down to lynch XL. VOTE: Xiao Long.

I also think wavemode's death makes Porkens look bad.

[Lord Gurgi]

Tired and can't summon the wherewithal to write a substantive post. I think the wavemode kill suggests that the scum was on or is unconcerned by the people on the wossi lynch. I'd look at dunkerdoodles in particular. Anyway, killing one of the major dissenters seems to have worked as most of you are wandering around aimless now. Yesterday should serve to done down y'all's outrageous arrogance.

Let's all revisit:

I feel vindicated by Derpy's sudden cessation of feuding with Xiao Long and continued vigilante calls. Won't lynch him Day One. "Hopes" that a vigilante will kill him Night One. Day Two there will be new information that will make all this a thing of the past.

lol get off your high horse. XL was never going to be today’s lynch. I’ve always advocated him being vig killed.

I’m only backing off him cause he’s acting like a crybaby and I really don’t want to be distracted by him anymore when today’s lynch is already decided.

Will do some reading in a day or 2. I feel today should be spent pressuring somebody new

[Lord Gurgi]

When I predict your play in advance, reacting by attacking me doesn't look good. Did you lynch your neighbor because you yourself were the scum neighbor?

[Lord Gurgi]

You're delusional. You lynched your town neighbor, the one person in the game whom you had the most reason to believe was town. I predicted precisely what you're doing now. You said you'd be interested in a day 2 XL lynch, and now you're not. Just because you are "reevaluating"? I no longer believe the bad-at-the-game-townie narrative. This is just extremely low-grade, transparent scum play. Scum neighbor hiding behind the mislynch of his own neighbor.

How do you define manipulative. I've been pushing the second most successful wagon, which you have claimed to agree with, but refused to support. Now, as predicted, you distance even further.

[Lord Gurgi]

VOTE: Derpy Hooves.

[Lord Gurgi]

Derpy why can't dunkerdoodles have decided to reevaluate? Your read on XL is not materially different from his read on you.

Let's see a vote on XL. Just do it for me.

[Lord Gurgi]

Cmon what? Stepping all over peoples stupid gambits? Hell no. People need to stop doing stupid shit and play the fucking game

You are a total hypocrite.

I hate lying. I hate gambits. I hate trickery. That isn’t suspect. That’s me.

If you are town you shouldn’t need bullshit tricks to find scum especially when they almost never work.

If you do you need them maybe try another game as mafia isn’t the game for you.

Ok, so you believe everything you say. Got it.

QFT.

[Lord Gurgi]

People were down for a scum neighbor yesterday, but not today. Why's that?

[Lord Gurgi]

Just checking in to say I find the spam deeply unpleasant and it saps my will to participate. If it's a deliberate strategy from the scum, good on you I suppose.

Porkens keeps looking scummier to me.

[Lord Gurgi]

Porkens wasn’t scum? Hmmm

QFT.

I can't make heads or tails of what Porkens' night 1 result was. Doesn't look like there's a breadcrumb. Beyond that, I no longer know what the hell is going on in this game.

[Lord Gurgi]

That's an equal number of votes on me and XL, right?

XL: How about we both claim?

[Lord Gurgi]

I’m only claiming in a mass claim

VOTE: Xiao Long

[Lord Gurgi]

Time to claim, Nauci.

[Lord Gurgi]

God damn you guys

I'm OMGUSing all of you

Someone unvote me until I have time to catch up I don't want to claim

Stop stalling and claim. Shouldn’t take any time at all, the thread doesn’t change your role PM.

[Lord Gurgi]

The doctor should claim.

[Lord Gurgi]

I think massclaim is the way to go. The only remaining power role we're likely to have is a doctor, who can give us a lot of information by claiming.

[Lord Gurgi]

Not really. Pretty brave ifmI'm the last scum and I declare I'm waiting till the end of the mass claim.

This is stupid. You'd want to claim last to avoid contradicting someone. But whatever, I'll claim anyway.

Dave is acting scummy as all hell.

Claim: Vanilla Townie

[Lord Gurgi]

None of this sounds like a claim.

[Lord Gurgi]

Holy shit Derpy you are awful at this game. Yes, he does in fact have to claim. Why the hell would he be excluded from the massclaim?

[Lord Gurgi]

Derpy, I don't even know where to begin with you. I can't work out if you are one of the most deeply ignorant and arrogant people I have ever interacted with or if you're scum that is willing to win by drowning the town in your bile.

[Lord Gurgi]

Derpy, even if he is the doctor he should claim. It gives us information.

[Lord Gurgi]

I will also vote for tchill if he does not claim.

[Lord Gurgi]

No, it isn't. Ostensibly the person he protected is town. That's worth a lot more to me than your reads.

[Lord Gurgi]

VOTE: Tchill

People remember that the scum can choose not to use their kill, right?

[Lord Gurgi]

If I claimed doc but didn't say who I protected last night would you pull your vote off LG? It looks like you wouldn't from your last post

No.

[Lord Gurgi]

Yeah exactly my point. You're just stupid. You just said you'd Lynch the claim protective without a cc.

No I said I wouldn't unvote you if you only partially claimed. If you were doctor, why would you take who you protected to your grave. If you're scum, you can just off XL and claim you got lucky overnight. Derpy would probably believe you, too.

[Lord Gurgi]

Derpy claimed VT ages ago.

[Lord Gurgi]

Oh wait, that's right Derpy lynched his own neighbor.

[Lord Gurgi]

This is why you don't stop the massclaim. Idiots.

[Lord Gurgi]

Pretty sure I've been lynched, yeah.

[Lord Gurgi]

No.

[Lord Gurgi]

Nothing that I'm aware of. By my count, I should be dead.