Mini Normal 1976 - The Firsts - Night 2[End Jan 8]

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #9 (isolation #0) » Thu Dec 21, 2017 11:40 am

VOTE: Derpy Hooves no random vote obvious signs of guilt. Also hello!

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #56 (isolation #1) » Thu Dec 21, 2017 1:49 pm

I agree with Monkeys post here. I DO think that is too much effort for RVS.
VOTE: 2inamillion

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #57 (isolation #2) » Thu Dec 21, 2017 1:50 pm

inb4 'why vote 2 then' because reasons. Ask me after RVS is done.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #61 (isolation #3) » Thu Dec 21, 2017 2:18 pm

Ah it's really stupid.

I linked to your page 1 about Savant but I was reading on page 3 your post 54 and mixed up Savant/2iAM. After I hit post I thought 'Wait what how did I vote the wrong person' and then immediately went 'well it is not wrong if they are both scum' and then 'but it is page 3 I highly doubt we solved the game already'. Then I super super thought hmmm is this vote still valuable/should I move it to Savant and then I thought no, if they are already interchangeable by page 3, then maybe there is something there, so bwah-bwah-bwah-airhorns, let's float that boat and see what rats jump off.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #63 (isolation #4) » Thu Dec 21, 2017 2:24 pm

Never attribute to malice what can be attributed to incompetence!

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #70 (isolation #5) » Thu Dec 21, 2017 7:09 pm

I will be out of town for the next 48-72 hours re: Christmas, but I'll still be able to read the game and post occasionally from my phone, so I am not going V/LA.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #188 (isolation #6) » Fri Dec 22, 2017 1:39 pm

I have no issues with what Monkey has done.
UNVOTE: Mills
VOTE: Savant for reasons Monkey has described.

I'm like 90% sure that was a fake vig claim based entirely on trying to change Monkey. That kind of rage I normally associate with town. Since it's obv fake (lol unless its not in which case day 2 should be 'fun') I'm not considering it as AI.
TBH I am pretty suspicious of Derpy's page 1 freakout of my RVS vote and I am concerned that Monkey actually hit pay dirt there. However this response/meltdown...well, I'm going to see how the replacement goes.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #189 (isolation #7) » Fri Dec 22, 2017 1:40 pm

"Yeah that’s great for my depression. "

I am a robot with no feelings except RAGE when ATE is engaged.

If you are depressed dont play mafia, get help.

When I am done sheeping monkey will go through this in greater detail

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #223 (isolation #8) » Fri Dec 22, 2017 8:31 pm

@jodax kk but can you try anyway? I would be interested for, let’s say, a summary from your perspective.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #227 (isolation #9) » Sat Dec 23, 2017 1:13 am

@all well I’m in A different Timezone from most of the players and it’s now Xmas eve. Have a great Christmas all of you and see you when I get back

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #438 (isolation #10) » Tue Dec 26, 2017 12:50 pm

Well hmm i am out of town for the morning but I expect to make a catch up post in around 12 hours.
Main thoughts from skimming:
Mulch claim instead of diverting DH by actively scum hunting is interesting. Not convinced claim is legit.
I am more inclined to believe DH claim simply by virtue of it not being repealed when monkey was replaced. I sincerely thought Ash was fakeclaiming to force a “win” in the argument they were having with monkey. Note there are any number of things people can do to screw with eh regardless of alignment so this claim itself is not AI or a guaranteed town claim as scum can also have 1 shot gig.
I am concerned that DH is taking up a lot of the towns focus and diverting away from scum hunting except for their chosen few.

I feel like I should do something about this.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #439 (isolation #11) » Tue Dec 26, 2017 12:52 pm

Sigh no
Ash = DH
This is why I don’t post on my iPhone while away x_x

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #442 (isolation #12) » Tue Dec 26, 2017 2:27 pm

@Derpy or any interested party
Hypothetically let’s say your claim is legit!town and you shoot mulch without interference and mulch flips town.
Who are your scum picks in that world? Why?
@Mulch you have linked some posts and said that you have scum hunted. Imo town should be able to gurp our theirnreads immediately and I strongly dislike anytime people say “I already did this” instead of “sure, my reads are xyz”.
For instance I have derp/mulch in my scum list because this interaction between the two of you looks entirely fabricated, aside from the force replace of monkey, which to me would not have happened if you were scum buddies together. So I’m wrong I’m at least one count.
Outside of that I feel monkeys initial comments re 2mil are on the mark and I’m considering switching to 2mil.

So who are your scum picks and why? And don’t give me “who do you want me to explain?” I want YOU to tell me who YOU ATHIJK IS SCUM AND WHY.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #443 (isolation #13) » Tue Dec 26, 2017 2:32 pm

Sigh seriously I’m about to give up in this phone
That all caps was supposed to be “WHO DO YOU THINK IS SCUM AND WHY” except also not in all caps.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #461 (isolation #14) » Wed Dec 27, 2017 2:55 am

I've spoilered interactions that I don't think are interesting.

Spoiler:

The issue started from PskoSavant’s post 8 where Savant assured us he had not deep dived 2iam with
“a quick scan through some of his games shows he does this as scum and as town (but more often as scum v.s. only one instance as town) so sketch points there.”
This was in defence of 2iam who had been poked by Monkey in 8. Savant wanted to assure that 2iam’s opening was not alignment indicative and gave evidence as ‘more often as scum than town’, implying he’d seen at least two scum games.
2iam in 24 refutes this and states only one game played as scum.
Derpy jumps in 25 with ‘If true psycho is confirmed scum’ and clarifies this as Policy: Lynch All Liars, in 27.
2iam refuting this up front makes me first lean towards 2iam/Savant not being scum together, but doesn’t rule one of them out from being scum.
There was some hedging around what counted as 2 or more games based on 2iam being in some games that they were unaware of finishing, Pskyo happily plucked enough to prove they were not making shit up – Monkey voiced the question we were all thinking, did Psyko pull this out of mid-air and luckily find the facts after the event, or not? If so, what is the motive for Psyko covering for 2iam? Regardless, what is the reason for Pskyo PERIOD covering for 2iam. Could be neighbours/masons/scum. Not alignment indicative but definitely suspicious.

Spoiler:

Psyko votes 2iam ‘for what it’s worth’ in 50 completely discounting everything he’s said so far this game. This backflip is pretty terrible.
Monkey concludes TIAM/Psyko is TVS or TVT and probably not SvS. At this stage, I agree.
From the overall exchange, Savant looks the most out of line in my opinion – key elements are his initial entry being an arbitrary and unneeded defence of 2iam, the appearance that this defence was either untrue or fabricated (and retroactively justified), and the vote backflip in 50.

Spoiler:

Bujaber votes in 73 jodaxq: No reason given – please clarify. Does indicate they would rather vote 2inamil over Psyko, for this specific reason:
"I'm inclined to vote for 2inamil over Psyko. I think psyko got lucky and caught scum, then went back and tried to find evidence to lynch him, which explains the overeagerness.”

That is the exact opposite of what happened. Pysko did not think he had caught scum; he was defending 2iam from Monkey.

This vote and reasoning is highly suspicious and needs to be investigated

. Exactly who did Bujaber think Savant was scumreading? Savant had no vote down. He WAS arguing with 2mil, so it’s an easy mistake to make to associate that 2mil was Savant’s scumpick – it’s the same mistake I made in my own vote prior. Should have resulted in Bujaber voting 2mil over Jodaxq imo.
2iam 76 queries Bujaber’s potato vote but incorrectly – “If he got lucky and caught scum” not in line with the actual sequence of events. Does not reflect poorly on 2iam, just means he bought Bujaber’s sequence of events. Odd that 2iam should have twigged that this meant 2iam is scum from Bujaber’s pov.

Spoiler:

Bujaber empty votes for me in 84 with no explanation. Explains to 2iam that he has re-read the posts but still has not realised his mistake re:

Savant never claimed he had found scum in 2iam.

I am concerned that he did not actually re-read these posts and pulled this out of his ass as a way to respond to 2iam’s 76 when he questioned Bujaber’s 73.
Derpy 87 continues to hate on Savant as ‘confirmed scum’ – “

He lied and backtracked, 2 things town don’t do

” and argues with Hawk for a bit.
Derpy Hooves 93
“disregard this. wrong game.” If true, Derpy should have been force replaced here.
Problem – 83 refers to 87 which directly quoted Hawk and replied in context. I am wary of talking about other games in progress so I will simply say 93 looks like a giant lie. Monkey picks this up later as the only post that Derpy hasn't 'piggybacked' him.

Spoiler:

Bujaber 129:
“I actually totally agree with psyko about 2inam's opening post.”
“when assuming 2inam is scum the rest of the game so far doesn't make a lot of sense.”
The natural question of “Does it make sense if Savant is scum?” is not asked.
I don’t mind Bujaber’s points about me, by that point of the game I had done nothing and town reading me is harmful imo.
I have concerns that a lot of what Bujaber says are based on flawed/incorrect explanations or fail to come to logical ends. I will dive into Bujaber after I’ve finished this deeper read of the game state.

Spoiler:

Monkey/Derpy interactions. Key points:
Monkey says Derpy has done nothing except copy Monkey super hard, Derpy can’t refute “That’s too hard”. Monkey asks for other reads. Derpy only has Psycho in #144. Monkey in #149 refers to Derpy’s 93, when Derpy says their quote was in reference to a different game.
Derpy 152 starts to lose their shit and asks for then demands an apology. Votes for Monkey in 160 and proceeds to tunnel/claim vig etc.
Derpy 167 basically says they were scumreading Psycho and the reason they are voting Monkey is because Monkey accuses Derpy of not doing it. This is as OMGUS as it gets but is in itself not AI.

Spoiler:

Bujaber in 226 handwave dismiss arguments against Derpy. Questions Mulch scumreading Monkey’s townreads, it’s not in the slightest AI and leans more to town than scum (scum would have the same motive behind voting, a new town player has no motive or history to sway their vote).
Wants me dead (needs explanation as I had been more active than other players at this point, so it’s not Policy: Lynch Deadweight) but asks to choose between 2inam, psyko, and mulch.
Actually I really hate this because while it seems like it’s trying to help town, it’s actually putting a subtle pressure on the town to choose between these three and exclude all others. It makes it much easier for scum to secure a mislynch since they can simply pick one of those three who is not scum and push for the lynch on that wagon. It’s way too early to narrow down our choices when we have 20 pages of content and a whole bunch of players who hadn’t provided content.
Bujaber’s vote on me at this point is that the reason he is voting me is because I was on the 2iam wagon, but that player is in Bujaber’s deathnote list. Seems inconsistent – I would have expected town!Bujaber to have voted one of his picks, particularly Savant.
DH asks for a Mulch lynch.
I’m at page 10, gonna hit post now, and read the rest when I get up.

At this point my reads are:
1. Derpy Hooves - either misguided town or actually scum
2. Sky_Paladin - the true hero, feared by evildoers everywhere
3. TwoInAMillion - probably town
4. acryon - does not exist, best choice for Policy: Lynch Deadweight.
5. Hawk - kind of weak presence so far, some okay posts, but not really doing anything yet
6. BuJaber - several inconsistent and suspicious interactions. I'm concerned.
7. profii - does not really exist, but better presence thant acryon.
8. Mulch - Almost certainly town - early interactions were frequent, consistent, and advanced game state.
9. PsykoSavant - Some concerns from many players, myself included. Posts are mainly defensive in nature and not advancing game state. Early game fumbles may be biasing us.
10. Jodaxq - Does not really exist yet. Would like to see more Pharah avatar kthx.
11. rb - Does not really exist yet.

Mind you I have not read pages 11 onwards in any real detail so this may change. For now;
UNVOTE:
While I see where I put it.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #462 (isolation #15) » Wed Dec 27, 2017 3:00 am

To be clear it is after midnight in Australia and I need my beauty sleep; I'll finish the catchup when I return in around ten hours.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #599 (isolation #16) » Wed Dec 27, 2017 12:57 pm

I'm only about halfway through page 11 but I've seen enough at this point for
VOTE: Bujaber

More to come.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #602 (isolation #17) » Wed Dec 27, 2017 2:09 pm

Ok now...

Moving on for the next ten pages.

I've spoilered interactions that I don't think are interesting.

Spoiler:

Bujaber again comes to the defence of another player (DH) and asks for a lynch of 2iam, Pskyo, Mulch.
Profii clarifies that their vote is an anger lynch (?) and would vote for Pskyo. Let’s hit pause.
I’m confused how somebody could super rationally go through Monkey/DH iso and come to a logical and strong conclusion in 225, then dismiss it all as ‘anger lynch’. I’m trying to rationalise this. At the moment I’ve best got somebody who doesn’t really believe, or feels that even though they believe, they can’t convince others and want a better excuse to move elsewhere. This is a really troubling post because it puts a bullet through my belief on the exact same page that Profii is town. What do.
And by contrast 239 is plain idiotic – the SCUM win condition is they out number town. Alarm bells.
Mulch 243 calls Derpy ‘near confirmed town’, nothing in Derpy’s history suggests they are remotely town confirmed so this looks like an appeasement.
Mulch vote on BuJaber looks valid to me.
2iam 249 doesn’t make sense. Monkey!scum wasn’t remotely caught – he was not in danger of being lynched. If it went to night phase, there are any number of scum roles available to prevent Derpy from getting his shot off – roleblock, bus, scum!doc, etc – which likely exist if town has a vig.
Derpy announcing they are the vig, if true, likely assures that scum now controls that shot. I concede that this is not mafia 101 and requires a little thought to it, but anybody who’s played even one game of mafia should know this.
Reflecting back on 2iam 249 I can’t account for this explanation.

Spoiler:

Bujaber’s 286 votes Profi. My concerns are:
Start of the post says that Mulch is bad for agreeing with Bujaber’s views on Jodax/Sky but voting for Bujaber (fair) but then says ‘screw it’ and votes Profi because Policy: Don’t Be Bad. The implication here is that he wanted to vote Mulch but chose not to because the policy vote seemed better. My thoughts are that policy votes are last-ditch options when you don’t have a better read.
In response Mulch immediately unvotes BuJaber and votes for Jodax. The interaction between Bujaber and Mulch here seems suspicious. I think it highlights that Mulch’s reads list was partially fabricated and when he met resistance on one quickly abandoned it. I can accept this from the point of view that Mulch has just replaced into the game and can't be expected to have strong reads, but I would prefer them to say 'null' on players they don't have an opinion on. Probably my strongest concern for the slot at this point.
Pskyo 289 list of reads has exactly one scum pick (me) for Policy: Lynch Deadweight. At this point in the game he really should have at least one actual scum pick that is not an afk vote.

Profii votes Bujaber, promises an explanation later.

I've yet to see an explanation and Profii has a troubled voting history. Please clarify.
Hawk 291 says he is ‘okay with Jodax or Profii’ but votes Jodax? Not at all clear what this means.
2iam votes Profi, cites Profi assumption of Mulch!town and Mulch’s countervote of Jodax as possible scumteam. 293

this interaction doesn’t make sense.

What actually happened:
Profi says ‘Mulch is town’.
BuJaber votes Profi.
Mulch votes Jodax.
Profi countervotes BuJaber (OMGUS until explained).
Hawk votes Jodax.
2iam votes Profi because “Mulch’s quick vote of Jodax after Profi was voted” implies belief in Mulch-Profi scum team. Makes no sense because Mulch’s vote is on Jodax, not BuJaber. Clarifies that ‘you voted Jadex after Bujaber voted Proxi’ but still doesn’t make sense. Needs further explanation.

Spoiler:

Rb 304 also questioning Bujaber.

im wondering if Bujaber is scum and trying to deflect from a partner's wagon rn

At this stage I’m pretty sure that’s what’s happening.

Spoiler:

Bujaber unvotes Profii in 314 after a rambling post from Profii, and votes Jodax (to L-2). This looks strongly like Bujaber is looking for the biggest wagon to push that is not also Psyko. Strongly implies scumteam is Bujaber/Pskyo.

Spoiler:

Derpy 333

I’m going to chime in on this and share with the class.
Derpy strikes me as an idealistic person who thinks that everybody should play mafia perfectly and that the more mistakes a player makes, the more likely that they are scum. I used to be this kind of player. I had to learn at great cost a few things.
1 – Not everybody can commit the amount of time required, so they necessarily write less ‘good’ posts.
2 – Not everybody cares as much about the game as I do, so they are more likely to make errors or say the flat out wrong thing.
3 – Making errors is not alignment indicative.
4 – Being bad at the game is not alignment indicative.
I was taken aside by some experienced players and had it explained to me that the better guideline for finding scum is looking for the players who are trying to direct town, or subtly directing the lynch, or making poor/empty cases for when they vote. It was explained to me that players can be wrong, players can be emotional, players can do things that I think are mistaken, and it is STILL NOT ALIGNMENT INDICATIVE.
The day-to-day interactions between players are normally meaningless or empty. It’s when a player puts their vote down that they are being serious and focused and this is the best time to determine a players true alignment, so you should expect players to always be improving their vote somehow. Town always have a true reason for voting, scum always have to fabricate because they KNOW their reason is fake (or if they are bussing) KNOW that their buddy is guilty.
This is the basis for the “lynch all liars” policy. You’re looking for the person who lies when they make their vote. Everything else is noise.
Players who dwell too deeply into policy voting, or unexplained votes that appear inconsistent for the rest of their activity, players who unvote and then don’t immediately vote their next best scum read, players that make a lot of non-content posts, players who spend a lot of time talking about the game state instead of the players - are the areas I usually look at for finding scum.
For example, my giant spoilered wall posts could be conceived as scummy - they look like a lot of effort, and only town tries hard, right? This is not alignment indicative. I do this as town or scum.
What matters is what I do with this information. I'm using it to paint a picture; and that picture is there is a consistent set of interactions around BuJaber and Psyko that makes me think these two are scum.
Anybody can ask me what my reads are and I can explain them and refer to the previous posts that I have mentioned as evidence of my thought process.
It's much harder to fake that as scum - but - it's not alignment indicative.
Town want to advance the game state - make it harder for scum to place weak votes without being questioned.
Scum want to obfuscate and slow the game state - make it easier for their weaker votes to be placed without pressure.
Players who push the game forwards are acting in a towny mindset - but this can be faked by scum.
The only thing that can't be misinterpreted is a players vote. Make players accountable for their vote as it's our best tool for determining alignment.
The best way to force players to be accountable is to engage with them the simple question: Why did you vote for player x?
The purpose of this deep dive is so I can find the players who have the shadiest votes, and then interrogate them.

Spoiler:

Bujaber 360 is terrible:
Buddying up to rb
Agrees there is scum between 2inam and Pskyo but is currently voting Profii
Cites uncertainty about DH/Monkey and says one of them is probably scum.
Has one set of scum picks in Psyko and Profii and another in DH/Monkey.
I think it’s likely in this setup we have 2 scum not 3 (or 2 + SK).
Bujaber should be voting one of his scum picks but is currently voting his policy lynch. I’ve had a couple of strikes against Bujaber and this is becoming a trend of suspiciously motivated posts and logical dissonance.
I voted for Bujaber here.

Spoiler:

Psyko returns with some comments on Mulch’s claim. Restates vote on 2iam. Strange comment about Profi, ‘If Profi is scum, he’s doing a good job of making me read him town’. First mention of scum!Bujaber. Town reads RB for scum!reading Pskyo and Bujaber which seems strange, I would have expected a disclaimer like “is wrong on me but I can see his thought process” etc. Looks like appeasement/free town points. Does lend further weight to Bujaber/Pskyo team.

Spoiler:

Mulch then policy/OMGUS votes 2iam, bad. 2iam/Mulch spend a page arguing over meta in other games zzz.
Mulch 395 I strongly dislike posts that beg for hand holding like this. Town should be able to go “These are my scum reads, and this is why I read player xyz as scum or not”. Mulch has 3-4 posts on the same page that repeat themselves asking Derpy to tell him what to do. Where is your towny sense of motivation to prove your name is clear?
Acryon promises to exist soon, says they’re happy to vote Mulch, no real reason given yet.
Profii votes nolynch in 425. This is obviously bad and I expect a real vote immediately. Unfortunately it’s an OMGUS on 2iam when 2iam requotes their (in my opinion, flawed) reasoning on why Mulch/Profii is a scum team.
BuJaber 444 demands no lynch on Mulch (recall previously asked for town lynch between 2iam/Psyko/Mulch) and restates preference for 2iam/Psyko. Pushes for 2iam, consistent with Bujaver/Pskyo team.

Spoiler:

Profii’s “Cant eat a cake” post. This player alternates between madness and stone cold logic. Profii, if you are town, my main advice would be believe in yourself more, and don’t second guess yourself. Your logic is sound and strong. I think you should exploit this to it’s full potential. I doubt you when you doubt yourself. Who are your scum reads and why? Don’t worry if other people disagree. I want to see your unbridled thought process.
Mulch votes DH because OMGUS.

And I'm starting on page 21 next.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #605 (isolation #18) » Wed Dec 27, 2017 2:16 pm

@Derpy Just read the bit that I've quoted your name in response to 333 then. It's mainly directed at you.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #606 (isolation #19) » Wed Dec 27, 2017 2:40 pm

Welp that was fast, mostly Mulch noise.

Derpy 513 softens their stance on Mulch. “If nobody wants me to shoot I won’t”. Unfortunately it’s too late, you now likely have to shoot to prove your claim, and the shot is likely to be controlled by scum. Points to you though if you're not actually a vig and something interesting happens.
Mulch 358 looks like helpless flailing to me, followed by essentially an OMGUS on acryon.
At this stage I don’t think we’ll really lose much from losing this player – the slot quality diminished immeasurably when Mulch replaced in. The only value remaining is if the claim is legit and assuming he lives to day 3. I’m not holding out much hope of Mulch improving. I don’t think he’s scum; I think he’s just inexperienced and doesn’t know what to do in the face of heavy pressure.
Acryon 546 continues to put pressure on Mulch. I don’t think this is misguided but it does look like low hanging fruit. I would like to see more reads from Acryon on other players. Acryon’s main concern stems from Monkey’s ‘aggressiveness’, which to me I saw as a highly town-mindset. Town want to advance game state, Monkey looked to me to be an exceptionally experienced and town-mindset player.
Bujaber 601
[quote] I've never understood why people do this. If you haven't finished reading, why vote someone? How is this helpful to town. I'm not the most talkative player here sure, but I have posted after page 11. Voting someone before seeing all their posts and being up to date on them is an odd strategy and looks like either laziness or someone trying to look active to me. Tell me why someone who wants town to win would choose to do this?[quote]
I had previously skimmed through the game, sufficient to get a highlight reel – who has claimed, is my vote on a wagon that’s at L-1 and should I unvote, etc, etc. After my first ten page deep dive I became suspicious of you and quickly reinforced that by page 11. Players are in different time zones and probably logging off shortly, I wanted to get my vote in now and have people comment on it, rather than in the hour or two longer it takes for me to get my meat post in and have to wait another 20 or so hours for people to return.

Reads~
Derpy Hooves - Likely town. A lot of good engagements with a select few players but has not shied away from discussion. Now that the red mist has faded looks to be an asset.
Sky_Paladin - obvious paragon of justice, untouchable by sin
TwoInAMillion - probably town. I feel that initial fumbles were largely other players and 2iam just happened to be in the middle. Posts are largely consistent although there are some odd logic gaps.
acryon - probably town. I feel that this player has really only been focusing on Mulch and I think that Mulch is town, so the actual value of this slot is low.
Hawk - almost certainly town. Posts are consistent, sharp, accurate, show good awareness of game state and no alarm bells raised.
BuJaber - almost certainly scum. A large number of suspicious interactions/votes, inconsistent and illogical statements, empty content posts and attempts to corral the town to lynch 2iam.
profii - likely town but a number of highly alarming posts. Would like to see True Profii coming out from the dark to light our way.
Mulch - almost certainly town but the player is sapping my will to live.
PsykoSavant - Probably scum. Early interactions looked particularly poor; no real content since the beginning and read lists have no substance.
Jodaxq - Leaning scum, no real presence, earlier reads list is non-existent. Best pick for lurking scum.
rb - seems to have my mindset and came to the same conclusions prior to my giant walls. Almost certainly town.

So in universe 1, my scum picks are 'obvious' scum like Bujaber and PskyoSavant.
In Universe 2, my scum picks are 'stealth' scum like acryon and Jodaxq.

In neither of these worlds Mulch is scum so I'm not inclined to vote there.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #612 (isolation #20) » Wed Dec 27, 2017 3:21 pm

Hi team, I think BuJaber is scum (probably with Psyko). Here's my case.

TL;DR

- BuJaber has a heap of inconsistent votes and shady reasoning, empty content posts, fascination with Mulch claim and asks for counterclaims.
His only scum reads are Jodaxq/Mulch/Psyko/2mil, basis for scum read on 2mil is not substantiated, basis for scumread on Jodaxq is never explained, basis for not voting Mulch is role claim, did not intuitively vote Psyko when obvious to do so in his ISO.

~~~

BuJaber's entry to the game includes a vote on Jodaxq with 'I didn't expect this many posts this early a quick read tells me jodaxq is scummiest.'

He buries this vote with reasons for voting for players that are not Jodaxq (specifically citing 2mil/Psyko, and a preference for voting 2mil over Psyko). The tone of this post suggests he wants to vote for Pskyo but doesn't, and he also doesn't explain why he sees Jodaxq as scummy. BuJaber never revisits this initial vote to clarify.

BuJaber specifically says "I think psyko got lucky and caught scum, then went back and tried to find evidence to lynch him" in relation to the 2mil/Psyko engagement, however this is a misrepresentation of what happened.
Monkey thought he had caught scum!2mil, and Psyko jumped in to defend 2mil. Monkey then pressured Psyko while Psyko retroactively found evidence to support his initial statements to clear 2mil. This is the source of the early game 2mil/Psyko scum-team feeling, but in reality 2mil did nothing to warrant this - the shady interactions were all Psyko.

I feel that BuJaber should have realised if he analysed the interactions as he said he had, and that his vote should have been on Psyko - his vote on jodaxq is weak and unfounded by comparison. A subsequent post later underscores that he has not actually understood the interaction between 2mil/Psyko, at the same time clarifying to Profii why he dislikes Sky_Paladin.

In 226 BuJaber again has a preference for Sky_Paladin lynch, but feels the only available options are Mulch, 2mil and Psyko. A couple of players (myself included) flagged this as a strange interaction - there's no reason to constrain town at this point. When pushed by other players, BuJaber abandons this vote and policy votes Profii for their vote on Derpy Hooves. At the time, Profii had listed quite a solid reasoning for their vote on DH so this vote appears to be an opportunistic leap from a non-existent Sky-wagon rather than an actual attempt to sort out Profii's alignment. Less generous players might see it as trying to make friends with the claimed vigilante.

In 302, BuJaber clarifies in response to Hawk's questioning that their vote on Profii is

both a policy vote and also a hunch

. This is not consistent or borne out in any of BuJaber's earlier interactions.

After being questioned by rb and in response to a pushback from Profii, Bujaber switches their vote to Jodax, putting them at L-2. While this is consistent with BuJaber's RVS vote, I'm yet to see any actual case from BuJaber explaining why this slot is scum. Looks like a vote on a player who is fairly afk and not likely to defend themselves. It is also inconsistent with BuJaber's stated reads of 2mil/Psycho/Mulch. After Mulch's claim, BuJaber switches this to 2mil/Psyko, and votes 2mil.

Shortly after, BuJaber asks for town to counter claim Mulch which seems like helping but is in reality very harmful to town.

And that's a wrap.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #613 (isolation #21) » Wed Dec 27, 2017 4:02 pm

See, this is why I vote halfway through my catch up :/ By the time I get to my case, everybody has gone to bed X__X

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #620 (isolation #22) » Wed Dec 27, 2017 6:26 pm

Derpy

This read doesn’t match what you just explained to me about finding scum. Mulch is guilty of many of the things you just explained. Yet here you are town reading him.

This is fair.

I admit I am having a hard time accounting for Mulch. I differentiate them from BuJaber as follows.
Mulch is clearly flailing and mainly interested in keeping themselves alive. They haven't really made an effort to scum hunt imo and this is the main damning thing. If it was just Mulch (and no Monkey before hand) and no claim, because this is usually scum MO. Unfortunately there is a cop claim so there is a good argument in keeping that role in the game, however exposed it might be. However, I really liked Monkey and I'm struggling to believe in scum!Monkey, your issues with the player notwithstanding. Mulch is pointing everywhere except himself but this is consistent with his entire MO so far, but Mulch has ALSO been under intense pressure from the moment he joined with a gun pointed to his head - literally! It's hard to know what a player would do in this situation. If it were me I would probably be arguing against you (Derpy) ineffectively also. A player who thought they were dead no matter what they did could just give up and that appears to be sort of where Mulch is alternating back and forth between. So I can see this kind of mindset from town even though it's a very strange situation. They may yet flip scum and I'll have to eat crow.

So the main thing is that Mulch is trying to keep his head above water but isn't really pointing at other players. He is not trying to direct the lynch on to any specific player. He doesn't really have a town MO but he also doesn't really have a scum MO. The easiest thing to do would be to push fora lynch on an AFK player or one that is tunnelling him - the next best choice would be Acryon or Jodaxq, but instead he voted 2mil. I would have preferred a Psyko vote but eh. I could buy Monkey/Pskyo super bussing from the start but it seems a high risk gamble.

The reason I feel BuJaber is more likely scum is because he has not really been under pressure, but has been trying to slowly direct the lynch towards 2Mil over Psyko, when consistently he has implied that Pskyo is his preferred lynch, and has the appearance of a lot of activity, but hasn't actually been doing much.

When I write it out like that, the case for BuJaber is pretty straight forward, but the case for Mulch is quite complex. I agree that Mulch's playstyle and posts so far do annoy me but I can't allow my dislike of a players posting style influence my opinion of their alignment.

I think Mulch is probably town but I don't place great value on the slot in terms of scumhunting - the value is purely in the (supposed) role which is compromised. IE no value. I think you're probably right to continue threatening to shoot here in case it is town!Mulch, because scum won't interfere with your shot if they think you're hitting town.

I also don't see anybody leaping to Mulch's defence - technically you could call me, I suppose - which I find strange. Surely if he was scum, his buddy would have done something by now? Yes I'm aware if Mulch flips scum later down the track I'll be in a tough spot, but I'll deal with that if it happens.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #621 (isolation #23) » Wed Dec 27, 2017 6:29 pm

@RB

I think Psyko or BuJaber are solid votes, with my money on Bujaber. IIRC you are currently voting Pskyo.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #646 (isolation #24) » Thu Dec 28, 2017 2:40 am

Please tell us why you think Derpy is so set on killing the HEM/Mulch slot?

The trivial answer is that he was triggered from Monkey's earlier accusation that Derpy was just piggybacking, and felt that it was fabricated (aka a lie). Derpy then got so deep into his own 'lynch all liars' confirmation bias that he then somehow devolved it into Monkey was confirmed scum. That's unsubstantiated at this time but in the ensuing tit-for-tat, after Monkey was replaced, and Mulch replaced in...there was an opportunity for Mulch to have done something remotely townlike that could have reset Derpy's read. That did not really eventuate.

A more interesting answer is that Derpy is actually a VT or paranoid type role and wants to buy a hit on themselves overnight by pretending to be a vig. That's a thing I've done before previously. I don't really think this is likely though because Derpy could achieve this without ramming into the slot so hard and disrupting town's focus.

I think Derpy is obliged to publically continually drive for a no-lynch on Mulch so that they can shoot that slot at night, even if they ultimately decide not to shoot. The main reason being if Mulch/Derpy is town, and with an abundance of unclaimed players, scum are in danger of getting involved in a clusterfuck of night actions when town's variety of trackers/watchers/etcetera's do their thing on those two players. Additionally, the end of the day phase will reveal (hopefully) a flip of useful intel to help Derpy make a more accurate shot.

Third more clutching at straws scenario, Derpy is some kind of oracle role who knows what all the roles are but can't claim it (iirc that role is Cassandra?) and is playing some other kind of gambit, and therefore knows for a fact Mulch's alignment based on that claim.

@Mulch

Isn't it funny how much people are like "mulch is prob scum,you should shoot him derpy"

But don't have the guts to lead a mislynch

I don't think you are scum. I think you are doing terribly for town and your contributions so far have been negligible. Your role may have some value IF you make it to day 3 but with 11 players and a vig, assuming we lynch every day, that's not getting us a result until there are approximately six players in the game. If there's two scum, that means you don't have a result until LYLO, which is arguably useless since we can't lynch your claim to confirm your alignment.
Which...means if there is no odd night cop or if Derpy really is a vig, makes me significantly doubt Mulch's claim. Hmmmmmm.

So roll some dice with me here.
11 players.
Day 1 lynch -> 10 players.
Mafia night kill + Derpy shot -> 8 players for day 2.
Day 2 lynch -> 7 players.
Derpy has claimed 1 shot so only one scum kill overnight -> 6 players at the start of day 3.
If we haven't hit scum, that's LYLO. That does seem like a reasonable setup (three mislynches and lose).

So I think that probably there IS a vig shot, and if there is an odd night cop, they are wisely not claiming to out themselves at this time, as their result is available at the start of day 2, in a time frame that is meaningful.

With that in mind, I think the actual value of Mulch's claimed role is greatly diminished.

So in response to Mulch; the reason nobody is championing a lynch is because we're anticipating that either scum or Derpy will kill you tonight and so there's no point lynching you. Your actual content is difficult to interact with because it's mainly flailing and blaming others for Derpy; but we can't control Derpy because Derpy is their own person. Nobody is going to step in and save you (unless you have a scumbuddy!) so if you want to get out of the hole you're in, start digging upwards. Otherwise, you have a role we likely can't make use of, and a slot that's currently good for nothing.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #663 (isolation #25) » Thu Dec 28, 2017 5:14 pm

TwoInAMillion(3) ~
PsykoSavant, BuJaber, Mulch

PsykoSavant(2) ~ rb, Jodaxq
profii(2) ~ TwoInAMillion, Derpy Hooves
BuJaber(2) ~ Sky_Paladin, profii
Mulch(1) ~ acryon

I see three players who all have votes against them all voting for the same 'save myself' slot without any real motivation for actually voting 2mil.

PsykoSavant who was attempting to townclear 2mil at the start and that is what got them in hot water from the beginning of RVS.
BuJaber, for reasons outlined in my prior case.
Mulch, because ??? no obvious reason.

Votes on Profii (TwoInAMillion, Derpy Hooves) need to be explained - with roughly four and a half days left in RL, we are not lynching there today without good new cases. Viable sensible lynch options are Pskyo, BuJaber, and Mulch IMO.
Deeply interested in seeing which of Pskyo, BuJaber and Mulch blink first and vote for the other ones in that group of three.

Town probably will consolidate between Pskyo/BuJaber and I'm happy with either one. I could be sold on a Mulch lynch as discussed by Acryon previously.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #664 (isolation #26) » Thu Dec 28, 2017 5:20 pm

In other words,

@Pskyo/BuJaber/Mulch

please explain your votes in your next posts.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #668 (isolation #27) » Fri Dec 29, 2017 1:30 am

The key difference in constraining the lynch is the timing and the reasoning. You wanted it in the first half of the day phase, apparently as an effort to corral voters to only focus on 2iam, Pskyo and Mulch, and by function, restrict players from looking outside that group at players such as yourself. You then further ruled out Mulch and vote parked on 2iam. This vote has never been substantiated other than the initial RVS when Pskyo implicated himself for doing a potentially fake metadive on 2iam, and your vote should have been on Psyko if that was your genuine intention. Since that's never happened I can't see how you honestly see scum!2iam.

I've asked for players to focus amongst the existing wagons, and specifically asked for Pskyo/BuJager, because we're now down to the last few RL days of the phase in between two of the largest AFK periods in the year, and there is a very real danger that if town cannot consolidate we will have a scum-directed mislynch or no-lynch.

Like if you look at this vote tally with just my two picks -

TwoInAMillion(3) ~

PsykoSavant, BuJaber

, Mulch

PsykoSavant(2)

~ rb, Jodaxq

BuJaber(2)

~ Sky_Paladin, profii

Both BuJaber and Pskyo should be going "Hmm, both of us are main lynch candidates for today, guess I'd better vote the other one because I know I am not scum" but they're refusing to look at each other, despite Pskyo being one of BuJaber's alleged scum reads.

I do encourage BuJaber to continue to post and show activity though, because it's much easier to derive alignment information from chatty players, and I may yet be mistaken.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #795 (isolation #28) » Sat Dec 30, 2017 6:43 pm

VOTE: Mulch
This is against my reads however I feel Mulch is the greatest anti town element in the game right now.
In the abscence of support for my Bujaber case, I am consolidating here.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #871 (isolation #29) » Mon Jan 01, 2018 3:03 am

I've been away for New Years and am back.

We gain alignment information and vote count analysis on a lynch. I'm therefore against a no-lynch since it denies us valuable data and slows down the game state.

Profii, mind explaining your Acryn vote a bit more?

Acryon/RB/Jaraxq, would like to see more input from you other than commenting that Mulch exists.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #873 (isolation #30) » Mon Jan 01, 2018 4:37 am

No all good, I missed your Acryon points in your 824 - I saw 'Mulch Mulch Mulch' and skimmed past it the first time.

Hmm.

With less than 24 hours to go and new years day I'm not sure there'll be any traction for an Acryon lynch. However I don't think you're points are invalid.

I'm increasingly antsy about the likelihood we'll have a split/no lynch, with scum free to hammer whoever they damn well please.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #876 (isolation #31) » Mon Jan 01, 2018 6:13 am

I am out for the next 8-10 hours. I'm willing to lynch BuJaber or Mulch; I can be persuaded by a good case on other players. ATM my main town reads are Profii/Hawk/2iam so a case on any of these players would have to be epic.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: BuJaber make me proud team.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #877 (isolation #32) » Mon Jan 01, 2018 6:13 am

EBWOP I forgot Psyko exists! I could lynch there also.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #919 (isolation #33) » Mon Jan 01, 2018 2:16 pm

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Psyko

Should we just skip to the part where Psyko claims and then we all mass consolidate to Mulch in the last fifteen minutes of the phase?

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #920 (isolation #34) » Mon Jan 01, 2018 2:16 pm

NB I don't super buy BuJaber's claim, it's incredibly convenient and unlikely that we found an odd night and even night role on basically our two first lynch candidates.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #921 (isolation #35) » Mon Jan 01, 2018 2:42 pm

Don't claim yet Pskyo.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #922 (isolation #36) » Mon Jan 01, 2018 2:42 pm

UNVOTE:

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #923 (isolation #37) » Mon Jan 01, 2018 2:54 pm

@BuJaber

In post 286 you voted Profii when he voted for Mulch, and cited the reason as 'voting an uncontested PR'.

However, Mulch didn't claim a role until post 327 and to my knowledge didn't crumb they had a role until 319.

Can you please account for how you 'knew' Mulch was roled before this was public knowledge? Or have I missed some incredibly obvious post?

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #924 (isolation #38) » Mon Jan 01, 2018 2:55 pm

VOTE: BuJaber
Adding some motivation for a faster response, as I think...this is probably Mulch/BuJaber scumteam at this point.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #926 (isolation #39) » Mon Jan 01, 2018 3:05 pm

By my count BuJaber is at 4, with Mulch at 3 (2iAM voting Mulch currently).

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #931 (isolation #40) » Mon Jan 01, 2018 5:00 pm

Manual recount shows this tally:

BuJaber(3) ~ Sky_Paladin, profii, TwoInAMillion
Mulch(2) ~ acryon, Derpy Hooves
PsykoSavant(2) ~ rb, Jodaxq
No Lynch(1) ~ BuJaber
TwoInAMillion(2) ~ Psyko, Mulch
Not voting: Hawk

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #932 (isolation #41) » Mon Jan 01, 2018 5:23 pm

I would like everybody to take a look at what I posted in 923.

In this post I ask BuJaber to explain how he 'knew' Mulch was roled (the reason he voted Profii) before Mulch had crumbed or made his claim.

To me it looks like a straight up scum slip of BuJaber outing his buddy by accident, and this explains Mulch's subsequent meltdown - he knew the only way to save the team was to distract players from looking at BuJaber.

Like, have I missed some obvious post before then that Monkey or Mulch had indicated they were roled? Thoughts?

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #949 (isolation #42) » Mon Jan 01, 2018 6:42 pm

That post was BuJ saying I shouldn’t have voted for
Derpys scum claim
, not mulch

What

Could just be an honest mistake but I feel better voting you than yet another PR claim given this is starting to feel like mad roles all over the place

It's an honest mistake. I've been looking at BuJaber/Mulch combined ISO and that is what I saw.

The reason I was looking at the ISO is because I'm trying to decide if BuJaber's 350 matches with BuJaber's claim.

BTW if there is someone who can counterclaim you HAVE to do it now please. We would be able to 1) lynch mulch, 2) save DH's bullet, 3) profii wouldn't have to worry about DH shooting cop.

I mean if he could have claimed to support Mulch, wouldn't you do it here? I'm looking for evidence that BuJaber believes/disbelieves Mulch's claim/comments that support that BuJaber's claim is legit. And I thought I saw a scum slip but now I haven't, so.

What do you think?

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #953 (isolation #43) » Mon Jan 01, 2018 6:52 pm

So following on.

Mulch claimed in 327.

BuJaber should be posting from that point on with the knowledge that he has (allegedly) a role that lines up with Mulch. So I'm looking for posts that show evidence of this.

345 could be counted.
350 is the big one IMO. Is that showing belief in Mulch's claim? Or is it scum fishing for an odd night cop so they can 'confirm' Mulch's claim and also whack the actual cop?

Mainly his posts from that point are saying Mulch/DH town. So it feels consistent. What I am trying to balance is: There is scum daytalk, right? So the moment one of them has claimed, the other has to think of a good fake claim, and they can probably arrange this in the scum topic. Does it make sense.

444 "We are not lynching mulch unless we get a counterclaim. Anynody voting mulch from now on is scum in my book."
Second time asking for a counterclaim, which is not needed since...BuJaber himself could validate?

609 "I can't answer all those questions confidently, but my conclusion is that it makes more sense to me as a legit claim."

739 "I think he just has a shitty PR, given that it's even night. I suspect we have other roles to balance that out or scum is not too powerful."

Ah fuck it, that's enough.
UNVOTE:

I'll beleive the claims for now.

sigh and there is hammer. Of course.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #954 (isolation #44) » Mon Jan 01, 2018 6:53 pm

I am often bad at math
UNVOTE:

Let's see.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #955 (isolation #45) » Mon Jan 01, 2018 6:53 pm

UNVOTE:

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #956 (isolation #46) » Mon Jan 01, 2018 6:59 pm

That is L-1. Profii was one of the original players on the wagon, so that's not hammer, it's back to L-1 (L-2 now that my vote is off).

VOTE: Pskyo

I'll consolidate here because I believe scum!Pskyo over scum!2iam.

For now I am believing the Mulch/BuJaber claims because they appear consistent.

I'm deeply concerned that Rb/Acryon/Pharah haven't really done anything in this phase, although I think there's too little time to do anything about it now.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #963 (isolation #47) » Mon Jan 01, 2018 7:07 pm

Pharah = Jodaxq

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #1015 (isolation #48) » Tue Jan 02, 2018 4:25 am

I am here for the next 30 minutes or so but will not be around for phase end. Catching up now.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #1021 (isolation #49) » Tue Jan 02, 2018 5:04 am

@RB

why no Pskyo vote? He was your stated scumread in 916, is the next best wagon after BuJaber, and 2iam has 1 vote with 4 hours to go...?

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #1029 (isolation #50) » Tue Jan 02, 2018 5:31 am

It is not impossible for scum to have a one-shot vig. Derpy is not confirmed town unless we see a scum flip overnight.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #1032 (isolation #51) » Tue Jan 02, 2018 5:58 am

Huh. Well, colour me surprised. My last game was in November 2015, they must have changed it right as I left.

So we have just over 2 hours left and I'm not seeing the wagons moving at all.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #1033 (isolation #52) » Tue Jan 02, 2018 6:02 am

Unofficial vote tally:

BuJaber(5) ~ PsykoSavant, TwoInAMillion, Hawk, profii, Acryon
PsykoSavant(3) ~ Jodaxq, Sky_Paladin, Mulch
Mulch(2) ~ acryon, Derpy Hooves
TwoInAMillion(1) ~ rb
Jodaxq(1) ~ BuJaber

I think I probably want to see rb on Pskyo since that is his preferred stated lynch.

Profii/Acryon you are around, what say you about Pskyo wagon? Do we even have enough around to push the Pskyo lynch at the moment, since he won't claim?

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #1040 (isolation #53) » Tue Jan 02, 2018 6:31 am

That's not very specific.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #1043 (isolation #54) » Tue Jan 02, 2018 6:37 am

We have enough players around that we could credibly lynch anywhere but we're down to two hours.

I could consider a BuJaber lynch - I was scum reading him for a good chunk of the phase and the only reason I don't want him on the chopping block is because of his claim - a claim that will probably be partially substantiated (or busted) by Mulch's inevitable flip.

Maybe it's just confirmation bias. I was feeling stung this morning when I thought I had a scumslip then the recoil afterwards made me not want to vote there.

Trouble is I think that slot is scum except for the claim, which I want to believe because it's consistent with some of his posts. But. I just feel like...there are a whole bunch of players who haven't really appeared in this phase and they can all plausibly deny it because of Christmas/New Year.

Never mind cut by hammer. Well I was talking myself around to doing it I think so now I can go to sleep. I'll see the flip in the morning.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #1044 (isolation #55) » Tue Jan 02, 2018 6:37 am

Derpy, please consider alignment of BuJaber and interactions with players when taking your shot.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #1047 (isolation #56) » Tue Jan 02, 2018 6:40 am

I'm super keen on Mulch to leave the game one way or the other, but if BuJaber's flip is exactly what his claim is, that means Mulch is probably telling the truth, and the divine bullet will come from mafia.

Easy come, easy go.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #1049 (isolation #57) » Tue Jan 02, 2018 6:42 am

@Derpy:
If BuJaber flips town, that means his claim fits with Mulch, which means disgustingly, he is probably town. For me at least that would be good enough - I'd figure you're best of shooting something else at your own discretion, since 99% likely mafia will be forced to hit him (or you).

If BuJaber flips scum, by all means divine bullet Mulch.

That's my thoughts on this. Ultimately it's your shot though and best pony will do what she does best.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #1150 (isolation #58) » Mon Jan 08, 2018 6:28 pm

GOOD JOB TOWN WE DID IT WUWU