Mini Normal 1976 - The Firsts - Night 2[End Jan 8]

TwoInAMillion · Post Post #450 (ISO) » Tue Dec 26, 2017 7:19 pm

The "claimed" cop. You are not a confirmed cop. And you are not confirmed town.

Maybe if you started acting townier he wouldn't want to shoot you.

Mulch · Post Post #451 (ISO) » Tue Dec 26, 2017 7:21 pm

In post 450, TwoInAMillion wrote:The "claimed" cop. You are not a confirmed cop. And you are not confirmed town.

Maybe if you started acting townier he wouldn't want to shoot you.

I'm playing my game, I'm not molding my game to fit his idea of what a towny is

If I wanted to be towny I would be scum. Scum care about being towny

profii · Post Post #452 (ISO) » Tue Dec 26, 2017 7:26 pm

@BuJaber - by way of something quantative like a percentage or marks out of 10 (or whatever you choose) how likely do you believe it is that both Mulch and Derpy flip as per their claims

Mulch · Post Post #453 (ISO) » Tue Dec 26, 2017 7:43 pm

In post 426, Apple Jack wrote:
In post 418, Mulch wrote:if disagreeing with a vote isn’t a reason to scumrrad someone what the fuck IS
Lots of things but Disagreeing with somebody is never a good reason to scum read somebody. If I wasn’t so lazy I’d bet I can find multiple examples where you disagreed with somebody who was town.

Sometimes I disagree with people and I think they aer town. Sometimes I disagree with people and I think thye aer scum.

BuJaber · Post Post #454 (ISO) » Tue Dec 26, 2017 10:42 pm

In post 452, profii wrote:@BuJaber - by way of something quantative like a percentage or marks out of 10 (or whatever you choose) how likely do you believe it is that both Mulch and Derpy flip as per their claims

70-80% for each. It varies as they post. I want to believe this is an elaborate ruse by either of them but I can't believe that. It makes a lot less sense than it does that both of them are town.
And if town they wouldn't lie. I mean if they are lying as town then this game is lost and it'd be their fault.

profii · Post Post #455 (ISO) » Wed Dec 27, 2017 12:03 am

right, so the point is, there is a chance that someone is up to shenanigans here. Therefore, there is a chance, albeit by your own admission a minority chance, that lynching could be a positive thing to do.

I am not making this point to say to you I think you should change your lynch to DH or Mulch, but when you say things like 'we are not lynching Mulch today' (instead of something like, in my opinion it's not the way to go or whatever) you come across as 'playing by the manual' in terms of 'we can't lynch a PR claim!'

now, that's a great way to portray yourself as town. It's also a great way for the scum to know if they put you in a particular scenario, you will react in a certain way because that's "the town thing to do" which to me, means either:

-you are trying way to hard to be town because you are scum.
-by rigidly sticking to the playbook you are highly susceptible to scum manipulation which will lead you to lynching who they want you to lynch.

food for thought, do as you wish with it, but that is my perspective on how you are playing - basically I'm still scum reading you a bit

rb · Post Post #456 (ISO) » Wed Dec 27, 2017 2:06 am

In post 360, BuJaber wrote:
In post 357, rb wrote:You know what

VOTE: PsykoSavant

i think this is scum

This is possible. I think monkey was right that there is 1 scum between 2inam and psyko.

Especially if derpy is right and monkey slot is scum then that makes it even more likely that 1 of those two are scum. Bceause he'd be too afraid of saying anything definitively like "both are town" or "x is town" as that could come back to bite him later. It's better he risks outing his buddy that had already gotten into it with another person.

rb - what about jodax and sky?

jodax seems kinda town in their last few posts, sky i was townreading earlier and i dont see much reason to 180 on that since the inactivity is probably just christmas

i cant even read these mulch vs. the world arguments and its gonna sort itself out at night anyway so id rather avoid lynching either of the PR claims when we could likely hit a scum today!

rb · Post Post #457 (ISO) » Wed Dec 27, 2017 2:15 am

actually idk, jodax made an alright post but they dont really interact and get messy like town do. could still be scum

im townreading derpy independent of claim at this point. Sky is probably town as well, their recent posts are towny and their trajectory all game has been town to me.

profi is still suggesting batshit crazy things but crazy isnt an alignment tell

er, im kinda missing people as well. a lot of this game has been dominated by mulch/derpy and the things outside of that arent clicking for me.

rb · Post Post #458 (ISO) » Wed Dec 27, 2017 2:16 am

honestly yeah, psyko is scum imo

BuJaber · Post Post #459 (ISO) » Wed Dec 27, 2017 2:25 am

okay prof thank you.

In my opinion - it would be a bad idea to lynch either DH or Mulch.
In my opinion - it would be a bad idea for vig(s) to shoot either DH or Mulch tonight.
In my opinion - it is vital that if there is someone that can counterclaim mulch they do it now before we lynch anyone else.

I feel very strongly about this.

The only reason why my percentage was capped at 80% is that both DH and mulch claimed they're great players so I'm taking their word that they are and thus can pull off lying in this way. Also because at this moment in the game they're very distracting which is good for scum. Though I still trust my townread on both.

Apple Jack · Post Post #460 (ISO) » Wed Dec 27, 2017 2:29 am

I never claimed to be a great player. People remind me all the time how much I suck at it.

If we aren’t lynching mulch. We should lynch psycho or profli.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #461 (ISO) » Wed Dec 27, 2017 2:55 am

I've spoilered interactions that I don't think are interesting.

Spoiler:

The issue started from PskoSavant’s post 8 where Savant assured us he had not deep dived 2iam with
“a quick scan through some of his games shows he does this as scum and as town (but more often as scum v.s. only one instance as town) so sketch points there.”
This was in defence of 2iam who had been poked by Monkey in 8. Savant wanted to assure that 2iam’s opening was not alignment indicative and gave evidence as ‘more often as scum than town’, implying he’d seen at least two scum games.
2iam in 24 refutes this and states only one game played as scum.
Derpy jumps in 25 with ‘If true psycho is confirmed scum’ and clarifies this as Policy: Lynch All Liars, in 27.
2iam refuting this up front makes me first lean towards 2iam/Savant not being scum together, but doesn’t rule one of them out from being scum.
There was some hedging around what counted as 2 or more games based on 2iam being in some games that they were unaware of finishing, Pskyo happily plucked enough to prove they were not making shit up – Monkey voiced the question we were all thinking, did Psyko pull this out of mid-air and luckily find the facts after the event, or not? If so, what is the motive for Psyko covering for 2iam? Regardless, what is the reason for Pskyo PERIOD covering for 2iam. Could be neighbours/masons/scum. Not alignment indicative but definitely suspicious.

Spoiler:

Psyko votes 2iam ‘for what it’s worth’ in 50 completely discounting everything he’s said so far this game. This backflip is pretty terrible.
Monkey concludes TIAM/Psyko is TVS or TVT and probably not SvS. At this stage, I agree.
From the overall exchange, Savant looks the most out of line in my opinion – key elements are his initial entry being an arbitrary and unneeded defence of 2iam, the appearance that this defence was either untrue or fabricated (and retroactively justified), and the vote backflip in 50.

Spoiler:

Bujaber votes in 73 jodaxq: No reason given – please clarify. Does indicate they would rather vote 2inamil over Psyko, for this specific reason:
"I'm inclined to vote for 2inamil over Psyko. I think psyko got lucky and caught scum, then went back and tried to find evidence to lynch him, which explains the overeagerness.”

That is the exact opposite of what happened. Pysko did not think he had caught scum; he was defending 2iam from Monkey.

This vote and reasoning is highly suspicious and needs to be investigated

. Exactly who did Bujaber think Savant was scumreading? Savant had no vote down. He WAS arguing with 2mil, so it’s an easy mistake to make to associate that 2mil was Savant’s scumpick – it’s the same mistake I made in my own vote prior. Should have resulted in Bujaber voting 2mil over Jodaxq imo.
2iam 76 queries Bujaber’s potato vote but incorrectly – “If he got lucky and caught scum” not in line with the actual sequence of events. Does not reflect poorly on 2iam, just means he bought Bujaber’s sequence of events. Odd that 2iam should have twigged that this meant 2iam is scum from Bujaber’s pov.

Spoiler:

Bujaber empty votes for me in 84 with no explanation. Explains to 2iam that he has re-read the posts but still has not realised his mistake re:

Savant never claimed he had found scum in 2iam.

I am concerned that he did not actually re-read these posts and pulled this out of his ass as a way to respond to 2iam’s 76 when he questioned Bujaber’s 73.
Derpy 87 continues to hate on Savant as ‘confirmed scum’ – “

He lied and backtracked, 2 things town don’t do

” and argues with Hawk for a bit.
Derpy Hooves 93
“disregard this. wrong game.” If true, Derpy should have been force replaced here.
Problem – 83 refers to 87 which directly quoted Hawk and replied in context. I am wary of talking about other games in progress so I will simply say 93 looks like a giant lie. Monkey picks this up later as the only post that Derpy hasn't 'piggybacked' him.

Spoiler:

Bujaber 129:
“I actually totally agree with psyko about 2inam's opening post.”
“when assuming 2inam is scum the rest of the game so far doesn't make a lot of sense.”
The natural question of “Does it make sense if Savant is scum?” is not asked.
I don’t mind Bujaber’s points about me, by that point of the game I had done nothing and town reading me is harmful imo.
I have concerns that a lot of what Bujaber says are based on flawed/incorrect explanations or fail to come to logical ends. I will dive into Bujaber after I’ve finished this deeper read of the game state.

Spoiler:

Monkey/Derpy interactions. Key points:
Monkey says Derpy has done nothing except copy Monkey super hard, Derpy can’t refute “That’s too hard”. Monkey asks for other reads. Derpy only has Psycho in #144. Monkey in #149 refers to Derpy’s 93, when Derpy says their quote was in reference to a different game.
Derpy 152 starts to lose their shit and asks for then demands an apology. Votes for Monkey in 160 and proceeds to tunnel/claim vig etc.
Derpy 167 basically says they were scumreading Psycho and the reason they are voting Monkey is because Monkey accuses Derpy of not doing it. This is as OMGUS as it gets but is in itself not AI.

Spoiler:

Bujaber in 226 handwave dismiss arguments against Derpy. Questions Mulch scumreading Monkey’s townreads, it’s not in the slightest AI and leans more to town than scum (scum would have the same motive behind voting, a new town player has no motive or history to sway their vote).
Wants me dead (needs explanation as I had been more active than other players at this point, so it’s not Policy: Lynch Deadweight) but asks to choose between 2inam, psyko, and mulch.
Actually I really hate this because while it seems like it’s trying to help town, it’s actually putting a subtle pressure on the town to choose between these three and exclude all others. It makes it much easier for scum to secure a mislynch since they can simply pick one of those three who is not scum and push for the lynch on that wagon. It’s way too early to narrow down our choices when we have 20 pages of content and a whole bunch of players who hadn’t provided content.
Bujaber’s vote on me at this point is that the reason he is voting me is because I was on the 2iam wagon, but that player is in Bujaber’s deathnote list. Seems inconsistent – I would have expected town!Bujaber to have voted one of his picks, particularly Savant.
DH asks for a Mulch lynch.
I’m at page 10, gonna hit post now, and read the rest when I get up.

At this point my reads are:
1. Derpy Hooves - either misguided town or actually scum
2. Sky_Paladin - the true hero, feared by evildoers everywhere
3. TwoInAMillion - probably town
4. acryon - does not exist, best choice for Policy: Lynch Deadweight.
5. Hawk - kind of weak presence so far, some okay posts, but not really doing anything yet
6. BuJaber - several inconsistent and suspicious interactions. I'm concerned.
7. profii - does not really exist, but better presence thant acryon.
8. Mulch - Almost certainly town - early interactions were frequent, consistent, and advanced game state.
9. PsykoSavant - Some concerns from many players, myself included. Posts are mainly defensive in nature and not advancing game state. Early game fumbles may be biasing us.
10. Jodaxq - Does not really exist yet. Would like to see more Pharah avatar kthx.
11. rb - Does not really exist yet.

Mind you I have not read pages 11 onwards in any real detail so this may change. For now;
UNVOTE:
While I see where I put it.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #462 (ISO) » Wed Dec 27, 2017 3:00 am

To be clear it is after midnight in Australia and I need my beauty sleep; I'll finish the catchup when I return in around ten hours.

acryon · Post Post #463 (ISO) » Wed Dec 27, 2017 3:15 am

In post 405, Mulch wrote:
In post 403, acryon wrote: No offense but it's a little odd for the person who, by their own admission, has more than once claimed way too early as town critiquing someone for their post.

I think I'm still happy with my vote on Mulch.

The argument of letting him live in case we have a doc is pretty reasonable, but I don't think it's reasonable enough to overcome Mulch's body of work.

I'll be checked in for real tomorrow but wanted to keep up to date at least.
Explain why that’s odd?

It is odd because you're criticizing him for his post, when early claiming as town is terrible.

In post 409, profii wrote:As much as the suspect claim has only gone as far to give me empathy with what DH has been saying, if we are not lynching DH for being a PR I am not going to lynch Mulch today either - I have seen some obscure claims come good so I’ve been here before.

Here's the problem. Although DH's claim was also bad, it A) came when they were closer to a lynch than Mulch and B) was a claim that was much less likely to ward off a wagon.

Mulch's claim was too perfect. Even-night, meaning they get to live another day for free, and even then they can just claim green-checks so they never die and can claim doc was following the cop. Claimed a much more powerful town power role meaning that, unlike in DH's case, losing it is a big deal, and someone CC'ing means we lose a more powerful role.

In post 444, BuJaber wrote:We are not lynching mulch unless we get a counterclaim. Anynody voting mulch from now on is scum in my book.

This makes zero sense. No reason for someone to counter-claim at this point. If there is an actual cop, then we will find out a few days in when they tell us about their checks or we'll know for sure when they get killed.

In post 454, BuJaber wrote:
In post 452, profii wrote:@BuJaber - by way of something quantative like a percentage or marks out of 10 (or whatever you choose) how likely do you believe it is that both Mulch and Derpy flip as per their claims
70-80% for each. It varies as they post. I want to believe this is an elaborate ruse by either of them but I can't believe that. It makes a lot less sense than it does that both of them are town.
And if town they wouldn't lie. I mean if they are lying as town then this game is lost and it'd be their fault.

You really think both claims are legit? Fairly low odds that we happen to hit 2 PR's running their heads against each other day 1. Feels a lot more like a legit claim followed by a copy-cat. Also Human/Mulch are playing stupid aggressive if they are really the cop. Please if you are a cop in the future try to play a little more subtly.

Apple Jack · Post Post #464 (ISO) » Wed Dec 27, 2017 3:53 am

In post 461, Sky_Paladin wrote:If true, Derpy should have been force replaced here.

Incorrect. The site rules about discussing ongoing games don’t specifically mention this type of scenario. Mod handled it the way he though appropriate and now it’s a non issue.

Hawk · Post Post #465 (ISO) » Wed Dec 27, 2017 5:11 am

Okay so I'm back. I haven't caught entirely up (need to review but i have read up to latest posts) yet but when I get the chance I'll do a full review and update my reads. But from a quick skim I can voice some quick thoughts.

1. I don't like Mulches claim. A few people pointed out it seems perfect which is reasonable but to be honest I'd rather this get sorted out at night.

2. I both hate and love a few things Profil has done. I believe he was the first to point out how horribly convienant Mulches claim was which to me is fine but I'm not sure why he said it. My gut initially said I think most of town shoupd feel this way. I'm not sure if that's AI but my initial gut is it's towny because that's what I thought when I first read the claim. Now what I hate was the random hey guys let's no lynch. That's weak, makes you seem weak, and you're taking weak stances meaning I now feel like you're just trying to blend in now. Shape up man. If you wanna draw attention to something fishy do so confidently don't back down right after that's just bleh... also that's my advice for both alignments btw.

3. Derpy I'm getting pretty strong townvibes from but I wish you wouldn't tunnel so hard and focus on other players even if they've said less, your tendency to focus in makes me second guess your intentions when you say things. Like was that malicious and trying to make that person seem scummy or was that just enthusiastic and passionate that you're right he's scum?

4. I'm still fairly confident there is probably one scum between TiAM and Psycho but I need to reread their latest stuff to get a better feel. At first glance I didn't like TIAMs post calling out Mulchs claim but him being unwilling to vote mulch feels like he's taking a both sides stance so if Mulch flips town he can be like "Damn don't act scummy" but also "I didn't want to lynch mulch d1. Wouldn't scum want to take an easy mislynch? Especially on a cop?"

TwoInAMillion · Post Post #466 (ISO) » Wed Dec 27, 2017 5:17 am

A) I'm not sure why people keep on insisting there is one scum between me and Psycho. I know I am town and Psycho could conceivably be town as well. There are much scummier acting players.

B) How many times do I have to say there's a difference between me not believing Mulch's claim and me wanting him lynched?

Apple Jack · Post Post #467 (ISO) » Wed Dec 27, 2017 5:22 am

In post 465, Hawk wrote:Derpy I'm getting pretty strong townvibes from but I wish you wouldn't tunnel so hard and focus on other players even if they've said less,

Im not focusing on mulch only. I’m currently voting profli. I see nothing townie from him. I’d also support a psycho lynch. That’s 3 people that I’m willing to lynch.

acryon · Post Post #468 (ISO) » Wed Dec 27, 2017 5:28 am

In post 466, TwoInAMillion wrote: B) How many times do I have to say there's a difference between me not believing Mulch's claim and me wanting him lynched?

Ok and if you don't believe his claim you should 100% be wanting to lynch him.

If you operate in a world where someone fakeclaiming isn't enough to warrant a lynch, then I am very curious what you think makes someone scum.

TwoInAMillion · Post Post #469 (ISO) » Wed Dec 27, 2017 5:31 am

In post 468, acryon wrote:
In post 466, TwoInAMillion wrote: B) How many times do I have to say there's a difference between me not believing Mulch's claim and me wanting him lynched?
Ok and if you don't believe his claim you should 100% be wanting to lynch him.

If you operate in a world where someone fakeclaiming isn't enough to warrant a lynch, then I am very curious what you think makes someone scum.

Not true, because while I don't believe his claim I entertain the possibility that I am wrong. If you ask if it's scummier to think you are always right or to question yourself, I would say the person that thinks they are always right is scummier.

profii · Post Post #470 (ISO) » Wed Dec 27, 2017 5:32 am

-Hawk, I guess the one thing we can say about Derpy is if he is fronting an aggressive tactic and doesn’t intend to shoot the cop after all, he is doing exactly what you are telling me to do and standing by his convictions. I’m probably picking Derpy as more towny than Mulch but I guess I hadn’t really figured that with the even night claim bit it’s going to be so easy for Mulch to say oh yeah I read that guy who already died as he has loads of time to think about which player to fake read

-Sky, I went back to review the part of your post that you highlighted in red - given than Psyko eventually did lay a lynch on TIAM I think it’s fair to say he did have a scum read so I’m not sure I entirely agree with what you are saying here. Therefore moving on to the BuJ bit, I can see why BuJ said what he did in post 73 but given that’s its day 1 I think BuJ is a bit naive to think someone caught scum on page 1

acryon · Post Post #471 (ISO) » Wed Dec 27, 2017 5:33 am

In post 469, TwoInAMillion wrote:
In post 468, acryon wrote:
In post 466, TwoInAMillion wrote: B) How many times do I have to say there's a difference between me not believing Mulch's claim and me wanting him lynched?
Ok and if you don't believe his claim you should 100% be wanting to lynch him.

If you operate in a world where someone fakeclaiming isn't enough to warrant a lynch, then I am very curious what you think makes someone scum.
Not true, because while I don't believe his claim I entertain the possibility that I am wrong. If you ask if it's scummier to think you are always right or to question yourself, I would say the person that thinks they are always right is scummier.

Everyone plays this game with the possibility that they are wrong. The only people who don't are scum.

Under the assumption that you can always be wrong about anything you suspect (which is true), how are you current suspicions possibly any more indicative of scum than someone fakeclaiming?

Hawk · Post Post #472 (ISO) » Wed Dec 27, 2017 5:38 am

In post 467, Apple Jack wrote:
In post 465, Hawk wrote:Derpy I'm getting pretty strong townvibes from but I wish you wouldn't tunnel so hard and focus on other players even if they've said less,
Im not focusing on mulch only. I’m currently voting profli. I see nothing townie from him. I’d also support a psycho lynch. That’s 3 people that I’m willing to lynch.

It just feels like you've only talked about Mulch most of the game. I know you haven't entirely funneled. A little more on your Psycho read and your read on Profil would be nice.

profii · Post Post #473 (ISO) » Wed Dec 27, 2017 5:42 am

In post 468, acryon wrote:
In post 466, TwoInAMillion wrote: B) How many times do I have to say there's a difference between me not believing Mulch's claim and me wanting him lynched?
Ok and if you don't believe his claim you should 100% be wanting to lynch him.

If you operate in a world where someone fakeclaiming isn't enough to warrant a lynch, then I am very curious what you think makes someone scum.

This is exactly what I mean when I said Bujaber is following the manual, people are having their cake and eating it by saying “I won’t be blamed for lynching a cop but I’ll air my doubts now so I can say I told you so later...”

Yea I know nobody wants to lynch the cop but it will take 6 of us to do it, If it’s a mistake, that would be a shame but it doesn’t suddenly mean we are all scum or some other travesty

The other really weird thing I don’t get is that no one will put their name to a lynch of a potential fake PR claim because they don’t want to lynch a Pr but when DH says that he will kill a PR claim tonight very few people care enough to try and stop him. Again I assume people want their cake and to eat it because they will let DH be brave and take the risk of shooting a PR so they have an easy person to blame in the aftermath

No risk no reward people!

TwoInAMillion · Post Post #474 (ISO) » Wed Dec 27, 2017 5:45 am

In post 473, profii wrote:
In post 468, acryon wrote:
In post 466, TwoInAMillion wrote: B) How many times do I have to say there's a difference between me not believing Mulch's claim and me wanting him lynched?
Ok and if you don't believe his claim you should 100% be wanting to lynch him.

If you operate in a world where someone fakeclaiming isn't enough to warrant a lynch, then I am very curious what you think makes someone scum.
This is exactly what I mean when I said Bujaber is following the manual, people are having their cake and eating it by saying “I won’t be blamed for lynching a cop but I’ll air my doubts now so I can say I told you so later...”

Yea I know nobody wants to lynch the cop but it will take 6 of us to do it, If it’s a mistake, that would be a shame but it doesn’t suddenly mean we are all scum or some other travesty

The other really weird thing I don’t get is that no one will put their name to a lynch of a potential fake PR claim because they don’t want to lynch a Pr but when DH says that he will kill a PR claim tonight very few people care enough to try and stop him. Again I assume people want their cake and to eat it because they will let DH be brave and take the risk of shooting a PR so they have an easy person to blame in the aftermath

No risk no reward people!

So you're saying lynching a claimed cop is an acceptable risk? Why not save the risks for later in the game? We could still catch scum and not lynch a cop.