Mini Normal 1983: Winter Wonderland [Endgame!]

[Mathdino]

Dear God guys

I've been in the replacement queue since page 1

I know what's up

I'm reforming this town after dinner

[Mathdino]

I haven't been following as closely as you think i have
Enough to know you guys kinda want this shit to be over
Enough to not want to read mulch replacing in instead
Enough to guess the scumteam as Hopkirk/Rem/Katy

Pretty sad I rolled town cuz now we gotta play this shit out

[Mathdino]

And yes I know that random guess scumteam is pretty fucking wrong but it was a daystart guess cuz NSG was curious

[Mathdino]

Do scum have daytalk

Cuz if so, were lynching sheep and taking it to nightphase

If not then yeah we're calling the scumteam today

[Mathdino]

Firebringer idk wtf games you're talking about

[Mathdino]

Yeah i realised that

Unfortunately I have to get one of Firebringer and not fucking mafia lynched

If one is town it's gg so I'm thinking about how to prove this

And also how to figure this out

[Mathdino]

Firebringer why don't you link all the games you're talking about

[Mathdino]

I thought it was Hopkirk when day started but I've thought it was flubb since sheep scumclaim

I have sheep and not mafia meta that only works when I'm not in the game because they adapt their meta to my presence
So I need to do that

[Mathdino]

I'm phoneposting idk what you want from me

I still need a catchup like anyone else lol

Just won't take as long

[Mathdino]

Sheep meta will indicate partners

You're keeping him alive for that purpose lol

[Mathdino]

Yeah well you guys could've lynched Rem and ended the game

But ya didn't, ya banked on mulch and got me xD

BTW whoever requested replacement for Rem is town, if anyone

[Mathdino]

Remind me why Katy and HEM both confirmed

I tuned out after scumclaim cuz I figured you guys would actually lynch him

[Mathdino]

Also Firebringer I did in fact read some of your shit and tbh I could entirely get in a pissing contest

But I'm fucking not because it's Mylo and my lylo winrate matters to me

So link the meta where I tried to policy lynch you and we can take a look, yeah?

Edit: honestly if you're scum it's over
But I'll check for that later

[Mathdino]

I am sold on u being scum.
This isn’t how u would interact with me as Town I don’t think.

You're not answering

Link me the meta of me trying to policy lynch you

Otherwise that's a damn lie and you know it

NAI lie but enough for me to discredit your bullshit cult of personality

[Mathdino]

Not Mafia one of you is scum

I get in pissing contests with people who I think are on my team

Do you get more pissed at a goalkeep fucking up if they're on your team or the other

[Mathdino]

Everything from my entrance forward is completely NAI btw so no one try to analyse that

I'm too open about my scumhunting methods in general, people often figure out how to get past my radar

I'm gamesolving using D1 almost exclusively

Edit: No Firebringer link them, you've made a direct reference to specific events

[Mathdino]

Hop and flubb were never both scum

Cross bus vanity play low utility, no one called them tvt

Town was tearing itself apart

[Mathdino]

LINK THE GAMES FB

HEM I'm literally eating dinner rn lol you can wait a day

For now you get an un caught up dinosaur

[Mathdino]

Also HEM you should absolutely not be reading me off my pregame guesses

I made those reads to NSG off gut and some shit people were saying through today

I remember scumreading Hopkirk d1 d2 but I wasn't analyzing it at all

The point is that pregame reads are intelligence indicative, not alignment indicative

[Mathdino]

Because I didn't have a role pm yet

Like had my slot not replaced out I'd be scumreading it

The lurkout and lack of anyone screaming for a replacement made me go

Oh fucking shit that slot is town and it's gonna be me isn't it
Fakkk

[Mathdino]

You trying to read me correctly is not my problem

Do you honestly think I would come in here as scum and literally lie about a mod conversation and multiple pregame reads I had

[Mathdino]

On computer.

I don't have any post-rolePM reads outside of now knowing one of FB/N_M is scum.

I was asked who I think is scum and I said so based on having been reading the game.

YOU don't care but I was asked a question and I'll answer it.

I was then asked to elaborate on that, and I'm saying it was
A. based on gut because i don't analyse games i'm not in too deeply
B. pretty much NAI because i wasn't playing to any wincon as a spectator in the first place

That said once I actually delve into the game, THAT stuff will be AI because that will all be analysis made after getting my role PM.

/claim VT if Rem didn't already btw

[Mathdino]

i dont want the claim

[Mathdino]

page 1 strongly STRONGLY indicates Not_Mafia scum over Firebringer
Not_Mafia distinctly tries to control the game more as scum, he's slightly more of a tryhard

i did this meta research back in Marked For Death and Switch but he tailored his playstyle to my knowledge of my meta

for example he's never gone this HAM against me, he's usually friendly (but he's almost always been scum in games i'm in)

but he also knows that.

moving on from literally page 1

[Mathdino]

EBWOP: my knowledge of his meta

Edit: fuck

[Mathdino]

That absolutely doesn't count, since it's a Newbie game, he's setting a (good) example for the newbies, and he's not pushing people around as much as he is playing like a normal MS player.

This game he's been pushing people around from the start.

I hate reading chronologically and checked out at the spam on page 3 so the next order of business is ISOing the NKs. Assuming that's mozamis/Inter.

[Mathdino]

Spoiler:

a hammer would be good.
but i'm less panicky than i was because this town has kept this lynch together for a while now, so i think we'll be good even i f we have to wait a bit longer.
if i dont make it, defintel ylynch hopkirk tomorrow. it's a very strong meta read.this isnt town hop.

You literally haven't played with me as town in a finished game, so either:
a.) You're scum and know this isn't true, or
b.) You're referencing an ongoing game.

Which is it? I already raised this point and you flat out ignored it.

1) you were effectively town in that weird upick game (he was "effectively" town because he had a weird shapeshifting/morphing role that meant he became town and won with tthe town in the end)
2)i cant talk about it AND YOU KNOW THIS SO DONT MENTION IT AGAIN

this is why your scummy - you KNOW i have played with as you as town, and you are seriously trying to argue the toss, perhaps even get me in trouble with the Mod?! Thats not town.

MORE IMPORTANTLY YOU ARENT DOING SHIT TO GET ANYONE LYNCHED.
Contrast you with someone like Seph. He may or may not be convinced that Doyou is scum, but he wants a hammer, he is trying to push the game forward, he is CURIOUS for a flip.
All you do is vote for peop[le that are neve gettong lynched today, like me and Kat. You jumped off the Baj wagon as soon as got near a lynch.
You literally show no interest in lynching anyone.

sorry, didnt realise there had been a hammer.
i reckon he will be flip scum.
hopkirk and buj reluctance to get involved with the lynch noted.

Anyway, join me on Moz like you did on Bu. That went well for reads.

translation: i know moz is town but i have to give some reason lol "yeah, lets get info from a mislynch"

Reading backwards in mozamis's ISO, this clearly implicates Hopkirk. He didn't breadcrumb vig AFAIK and was pretty set on lynching anyone not involved with getting the DeWay wagon off the ground.

Will Ctrl+F his ISO for other players but points toward Hopkirk.

[Mathdino]

Yep. He at NO POINT ever called Flub anything worth suspecting. Would be a very bad kill for Flubber unless a team of Flub/sheep/{FB/NM} actually figured out he was vig, which is laughable.

Btw I'm doing this with the assumption that scum is for sure {sheep, {Hopkirk/Flub}, {FB/NM}}. I get the feeling that Katy would be significantly harder to analyse on NKA.

@Monkey:

You told me on sitechat once that you fake towntells as town as often as possible. Did you do that at all this game, and can you link to the posts where you did?

Ignore this of course if doing so would lead us closer to your roleclaim. Find me alignment-indicative stuff, not role-indicative.

[Mathdino]

Spoiler:

Can someone townreading n_m tell me why since a decent chunk of you seem to

I cant read him to save my life

Probably shooting between Hop/Serg with an outside chance of Moz/Buj depending on how reading the thread during night goes.

Also just gotta mention rn that I fucking hate Vig with all my heart

411
@Intern: Do you have no thoughts on the Kat/Hop/HEM interactions?

Kat town, HEM townlean, scumlean on you I guess

Least confident on the read on you, I need to go over the interactions again with less skimming

Some really basic shit also indicates Hopkirk scum, outside chance of N_M.

So yeah both NKs suspected Hopkirk and then the town turned toward Flubber. Hopkirk was a potential wagon numerous times and both lynches IIRC rose up as a counterwagon to his (or he was a counterwagon to theirs).

I'm talkin outta my ass here cuz I'm going off of memory so I'm gonna do actual VCA on that and check.

Edit: Show me, monkey.

[Mathdino]

Yeah I fucked up, Hopkirk was literally never a wagon, but when he was, it was a vanity vote by Flubber, monkey, or katy.

Heavily indicates scum. Checking his vote progression.

Almost exclusive presence on town wagons or Firebringer's slot. Indicates Hopkirk/N_M. Checking N_M vote progression.

Standard scum Not_Mafia. Tunnels players hard, digs his feet in, tries to field votes from both scum and town. Checking Fire slot vote progression.

Idk anything about Sergtacos meta, but I do know that Firebringer was an early joiner of scum wagons and was himself wagoned by Hopkirk. Scumteam that stays this strong with a town this dysfunctional means scum optimal play is to NOT bus and let town tear itself apart. sheep was the weak link by today once town caught on, hence beginnings of a bus (before scumclaim).

Gut says mafia actually don't have daytalk. I feel like things would've been more coordinated if they did. At the same time, a lot of the potential scum players wouldn't get much out of daytalk in the first place.

[Mathdino]

pedit: so why doesn't scum shoot me, the person leading the scumreads on hopkirk? they both were townreading sheep as well

Doesn't matter if they townread sheep because sheep is confirmed scum now.

I need to know more about the day dynamic to figure that out. If they thought you'd be a non-factor or that you'd barrel down the wrong track OR that you were discreditable/mislynchable, obv reasons to keep you alive.

Or if you were strong townreading one of the scum.

[Mathdino]

Regardless of which team that is, scum is going to take Firebringer to LyLo for obvious reasons.

1. We lynch confirmed scum, most likely one of Katy/monkey dies

2. We lynch Hopkirk, most likely remaining of the 2 dies (or Flubber)

3. We no lynch with 4 remaining, scum kills the last of Katy/monkey/Flubber

4. Scum brings Firebringer to LyLo and he lynches me because he doesn't like me and cares more about fun with his friends (sheep, N_M, Mulch) than winning.

Edit: That answers that. You were kept alive to defend sheep.

[Mathdino]

Rem

(3): Firebringer,

sheepsaysmeep,

Not_Mafia

sheepsaysmeep

(2):

humaneatingmonkey, Hopkirk

Not Voting

(3):

Katyusha, Rem, Flubbernugget

The only VCA that matters

Cardinal rule of LyLo: Ignore everything that happens in LyLo except townclears and scumclaims.

[Mathdino]

Monkey's entire day with Sephiroth pretty much locks him as town to me. Horrible potentially blacklistable town (POTENTIALLY), but town nonetheless.

Hate it when all the players I'd policy lynch make it to LyLo.

[Mathdino]

Then you're talking about ongoing games IN WHICH MY SLOT IS STILL ALIVE and that's fucking bullshit dude.

[Mathdino]

i dont think you cave like that when math is basically confscum from ypov

Remember the Cardinal Rule of LyLo.

We're not using LyLo here as evidence.

Hell given that Rem ACTUALLY flaked out and wasn't tactically lurking (as I originally thought) I could even try to prove Remtown based on pre-LyLo. Not that anyone would really be interested in that until it became a 1v1. Point stands though.

Edit: HEM wat? I'll go find you approximate timestamps dude. I was chatting NSG on Discord at some point during D3.

[Mathdino]

That guess happened at 2 AM last Tuesday. Don't know how long day had been going by that point but it was before sheep's scumclaim.

I also told her that sheep's ISO was scum but his MyLo behaviour indicated town. I'm also surprised at scumclaim.

[Mathdino]

I think if we don’t lynch Dino scum will win tbh.
I think I die tonight.

You all mislynch not mafia and game ends

That's literally just a way of calling me scum.

Here's MY deal:
If I'm scum, you lynch me now, scum has probably a 50/50 shot at winning.

If I'm town, and you leave me alive, I solve the game for you. I've never lost a LyLo for town.

You don't have a case on me. You don't have any reasons for going after me except ONGOING FUCKING GAMES META. So whip up something I can respond to and I'll take a look. In the meantime, stop shooting from the hip.

I also thought Rem was scum because tactical lurking. This slot hasn't been tactically lurking though. It's been dead.

[Mathdino]

Right so mod's not doing anything about that.

But I want to be clear that I've never completed a single game with Firebringer in which I've tried to policy lynch him, and thus he has 0 meta to go off of.

Edit: RC is better at scum than I am. I'd hazard a guess that in LyLo solving, I'm better than he is.

[Mathdino]

Correction: I've never completed a game with Firebringer except an hour long turbo offsite.

Edit: Yeah basically. Ongoing games talk about Team Mafia.

[Mathdino]

I've played 1 game with you offsite.

As scum.

In a community where everyone fakeclaims power roles AFAIK.

Edit: Give me a break.

AGAIN. GIVE ME ONE EXAMPLE OF ME TRYING TO POLICY LYNCH YOU AS FLIPPED TOWN.

[Mathdino]

You're talking about ongoing games in which I'm still alive and unflipped. That's a threat to my other games onsite.

[Mathdino]

Caveat: I'm entirely unopposed to people using my completed MS meta against me.

But using a turbo offsite is like using my Town of Salem meta.

[Mathdino]

I'm not done catching up, I've been on a phone call for an hour lol.

Give me til tomorrow and I'll be caught up. I'm not ending the day without Flubber/Hopkirk.

[Mathdino]

Were you set on this from the moment you saw me replace in?

[Mathdino]

We have no grudge. I tried to pocket him as scum in an offiste turbo when he fakeclaimed vig.

Outside of that, I mocked him on Mafia Discussion once.

Outside of that, ongoing games DON'T. EXIST.

Edit: I despise the way Raybells plays this game.

[Mathdino]

It's personal to me that you're jeopardising my games. I want that shit stopped. I don't care if your replacement decides I'm scum or whatever.

When the hell do you think I was trying to manipulate you of all people? You vote parked on me from my first 10 posts.

Edit: Uh. No. I'm talking to Katy there and if she and I had a hood together I'd have said the same thing.

I'm logicking myself into why we shouldn't put off the me conversation til 3p.

[Mathdino]

All that said, if no one does shit about it, I'm still willing to win with you.

That's not going to happen if we turn this into a grudge match though.

It'd be real easy for me to jump in and decide FUCK FIREBRINGER, HES A BARRIER TO MY LYLO AND HES GOING DOWN.

I can't do that because of fucking course you rolled town this game.

Play to win and I'll do the same.

The problem I have is that you've at multiple points stated that you don't play to win and I have a problem with that.

[Mathdino]

I saw you replaced in knowing ur good at pocket people from the turbo I saw.

You're meta-ing me off a fucking turbo?

That was potentially the worst game of forum mafia I've ever played. I just followed sheep/Transcend's lead the whole damn time.

Normally I'd policy lynch you D1, yeah.

I wouldn't policy lynch you in MyLo as ANY alignment because as katy says, that's a scumclaim.

[Mathdino]

I'm in this game as a favour to NSG.

I don't have a problem with you deciding some slots are town or scum. If you choose wrong as town, it's your loss.

The problem started when you tried to use ongoing games to convince people I'm a certain alignment.

[Mathdino]

I'm willing to blank slate this discussion if you are.

[Mathdino]

@HEM: I'll focus on N_M when I get a better sense of game progression. I'll do that when the game calms down and I have some time being one of few players online to do my own work

For now, just wanna say that all of those intro posts were made on my phone, which might be the source of the weird tone you're getting/might not be expecting, knowing me from Chill Mafia.

This is also strongly related to why I think tonereading is bunk. I'd ask you to read motivation instead, but it's LyLo, and that's basically impossible because everyone's motivation is to not get lynched anyway.

If you have a case against me I can respond to or any questions about the claims I've made feel free. I'm not gonna be doing the catchup prob til everyone goes to bed.

[Mathdino]

Then my POV is that of any player who replaces into LyLo and has to save themselves.

It's naturally going to come across as a scum mindset because I haven't done any scumhunting all game until I've been run up with a gun to my head.

I'm not saying any of that's unfair. If I weren't a replace-in and this wasn't LyLo, my POV/motivation would come across very very differently. Right now though I'm kind of in panic mode and I haven't been a serious lynch candidate in any dayphase as town since 2013.

Granted, that all leads to the idea that I have to convince you by the evidence, which I've as of yet failed to do so by not catching up

Will have that done by tomorrow.

[Mathdino]

HEM in order to start being comfortable convincing you I'd like examples of whehter or not you've forced towntells this game. It's okay if not, but I want to work on the locktowns first.

[Mathdino]

You told me you toneread me.

I know jackshit about tonereading.

My first thought is "oh well I never phonepost on MS so that's probably it".

Outside of that, I don't know your method so I can neither respond to it nor call it bullshit. I imagine you'd be doing that as either alignment.

[Mathdino]

Highkey, if I wasn't absolutely sure that FB/N_M would flashwagon me tomorrow without HEM/Katy stopping it, I'd be no lynching today. I wasn't aware that no one had been confirmed town yet.

We should probably no lynch at 4p though to maximise odds? Unless we end up with confirmed town by then anyway.

[Mathdino]

maybe don't recruit people into offsite games while in ongoing games yeah?
all of you have me on discord
i already said no

[Mathdino]

Okay so next step is going through confscum's ISO to look at his interactions with scumbuddies.

I am not an expert on sheepscum meta.

However, I did scum with him in a turbo. His MS meta is actually pretty similar if not identical to his MU meta, so I'm

hypocritically

willing to take that one turbo into account.

The assumptions I'm using based solely on that turbo are:
1. He rarely hard busses.
2. When he does bus, it's a sort of "oh I could lynch them". @Firebringer: IIRC, this is how he behaved toward Transcend in that turbo.
3. He will waffle back and forth on his buddies but usually settle on null-town to null-scum. He doesn't hard-defend.

Those assumptions may all be wrong, and if so, FB and I need to talk about that.

I quoted every potentially interesting sheep reference to Hopkirk below. I'm obviously arriving at the conclusion that sheep is scum with Hopkirk, but I have not done this same analysis for Flubber yet. This is the first go:

Spoiler:

snip

This gives me the impression you weren't seriously opposed earlier since you backed down- and townread Seph- based purely on a basic explination of what he was doing. 'It's an extension of RVS' is explaining intent, not a good or a bad reaction unless you actually have thoughts on the intent. I don't like the way you changed perspectives here.

i feel like with a sort of wagon growing quickly onto him scum!seph would have panicked
he felt rlly calm

Hopkirk throws shade at sheep, sheep defends. (I have not yet seen Hopkirk's response FTR).

hop's line of thinking is natural and genuine, him and kat are both likely town

Start of a townread on Hop. Lumps him into a potential townbloc with Katy.

i might have zoomed over this, but

@hop

if ucv's vote is serious, what do you think of his alignment
also, if the vote was serious, i think he would have said smth about the other two rvs voters?
to 146 i dont think kat is treating it as more than it really is, it's scummy if it's a serious vote and kat seems to think it might be one
i dont think either of you are scum atm

@hop

can we use post tags

Talking to and working with Hop, throwing softballs. Post tags thing implies no daytalk btw.

i agree that the last hop post in that sequence feels out of place

But now the townread flips because popular consensus is NOT that Hopkirk is town :O

from what ive read, my scumreads are ucv, you [Flubb], bu, hop which might change when i read what happened overnight

And now Hop is suddenly in sheep's lynchpool??? Keep in mind

this list is all flipped town except two

. Scum rarely throw 4 townies into their lynchpool, and sheepscum was no different from what I saw. Granted the pool has Flubb in there too. The point is that Flubb vs Hop is not TvT, at least one MUST be scum. (and unfortunately, someone on my wagon is town)

It's Flubb and Hopkirk, but Hopkirk-Buj does not make sense. So it could be sheep, as the third partner. Quote this in end game.

sheep isnt the third partner, do you still want this quoted
flubb im fine with, hop im sort of fine with, buj im fine with

how does hop/buj not work

Now he's trying to argue possible pairings with Hop into existence. This is blatantly protecting himself against Hopkirk's scumflip. Hop flips scum, sheep's set up to lynch Flubb and Buj. This also counts as evidence AGAINST Flubb.

fos

Hopkirk
think i have done this as scum, he's nervous , doubting himself, thinking "shit, i should have for bub, but ididnt, shit!"
town may not bother voting here.

i mean i see scum do this just as much as i see town do
town also just like to be on the player theyre sr'ing too?

Now nullifying scumtells against Hop. Waffle waffle. Will see if he does this toward Flubb.

hop defending against the ucv lynch really does feel unnatural
am i the only one that scumleans seph

So much later, he throws random shade at Hop but does nothing about it.

Doesn't even state a scumread

. As before, it's all light "Oh I could lynch this" crap.

What's unnatural about 'lets vote scumreads instead of inactives'

like
you dont have a read on ucv
but you seem strongly against his lynch
when we did provide our reasons
it just feels forced

Softball back-down response. sheep doesn't REALLY want to push Hop or make people suspect him.

dont fucking hammer yet
we can wait for ucv's replacement, but if he just prod dodges hammer away imo
literally hop and serg are like the vig candidates and none of them have been able to drop any thoughts for like at least five pages

"Don't hammer yet" is a nulltell for sheep, good to know.
Anyway LOOK AT HIS REASONING: "Don't hammer yet, we need Hop/Serg to come back and defend themselves from the vig!" Why does he care so much?
If I'm wrong about Hop (and I might be after reading for Flubber mentions), I'm right about this: There is 100% scum in Hop/Sergslot.
It's Hop/FB, Hop/N_M, or Flubb/FB. I'm inclined toward Hop/N_M.

Everyone needs to switch to hop then. What the fuck..

this is way too easily sold

Suddenly throwing shade against the Hop wagon after

supporting it pages earlier.

I hate Sheep’s comment about Moz having a strong meta read on me. He had no reason to assume that. It felt like a way to attack me by proxy. Sheep’s tone is inconsistent on me across the game. If mafia killed Moz, and Intern killed Bu, then the kill could make it look like I killed Moz. Sheep only sorting Bu overnight feels convenient when he seemed more uncertain on me. I get a general sense he’s positioning from this, and from the rest of his play.

when someone says they have good meta that's like objective so i assume they wouldnt lie about it
overnight i had time to look through one person and i thought you would be vigged rip

Doesn't look through Hop after lynchpooling him all D1, assumes Hop would be vigged.
But now that Hop is alive and well, sheep's uninterested in him as a lynch candidate? Another softball response that doesn't even try to read Hop.

Hey Sheep, do you still believe in the wagon, and who do you think is scum on it if anyone?

what wagon is this referring to

Softball interaction.
If anyone's wondering what I mean by that specific associative tell, lemme know, and I'll go fetch some quotes from a newbie LyLo I gamesolved.
Scum likes to work together but not really read each other.

B

O

N

U

S

R

O

U

N

D

i feel like i should read hop vs hem lol

i need to sort serg/seph/hop/bu

i'll look into hop as soon as i can i guess
i think moz's meta read is somewhat reliable

yeah iso ppl good
probably look at hop bc he's a wagon of interest and seph bc i cant read him i guess

yea serg/seph is fine with me
i'll try to look at hop soon

i'll try to read hop overnight i guess

because who seriously wants to even try to read their scumbuddy

Every sheep/Hop interaction is consistent with scumpartnerhood.

Again, this is not smoking gun level, but it's close. Scum and town almost always have SOME interaction that makes no sense between buddies. Gonna go check Flubber now.

And for those asking why I'm not going into Hopkirk's/Flubber's ISO and analysing all mentions of sheep, it's straight up because I think sheep will be much easier to read for associatives, being significantly less experienced with scum.

[Mathdino]

Okay here's the Flubber case.
There are a few things that are consistent with sheep/Flubber pair. I pretty much expected that.
But there are a lot of things that make it less likely than Hopkirk.

Spoiler: sheep on Flubber

Not mafia is my second candidate for scum. They were a lot more careless as town in the last games I've played with them compared to now.

was he more careless before or is he not careless here
he seems pcareless to me

how forced is this read?

Tries to nullify a Flubb read. That leading question heavily implies scum on town attempted manipulation.

it's a wagon growing quickly
you/flubb both hopped on with none of your own reasoning
it's opportunistic

VOTE: flubber
entrance still bad

Sheep's vote on me for a "bad entrance" after calling the votes on my wagon opportunistic is hypocritical and incredibly careless, at the very least.

i called your vote on ucv opportunistic
your enterance was forced and felt faked
how is this hypocrisy?
also, can you respond to 41

A progression of finding a scumread on Flubb, voting, and countering the rebuttal.
I have no evidence that sheep is the player that would bus early or try to be a player to bus early. Throwing a scumpartner out into the spotlight like this just isn't good strategy unless you can reap a lot of towncred out of a flip.

UC/Flubber/Sephiroth/INtercinfoanwrgaergn

ucv isnt a good wagon rn, agreeing entirely with kat that the "inconsistency" isnt rlly actual inconsistency
seph i liked his reaction to some pressure
inter is nullish
flubber is a wagon im fine with atm

Buddies up to UCV, waffles on townies and expresses contentment with the wagon he started (??? factcheck me).

I didn't like how flubb and seph just came in and joined a bandwagon. I thought that was scummy but that odds are no two scum partners would do that.

1) these days this doesnt actually mean scum in those two
2) associations like this dont work, there isnt any actual interaction between the two of them in this case

Nullifies a scumtell on Flubb; you can intuit a progression toward a nullread on Flubb. This is actually a point in sheep/Flubber's favour, in that he is potentially setting up Seph after a Flubb flip.

What do you think of my case on HUM?

i think i should read it when im not in passing period

i mean like

@flubb

sometimes i go for a reaction and i dont get anything i think helps so i just dont analyze it
like nm's reaction was literally "im not claiming" and then he disappeared with the wind, i dont think that's a really ai response

im looking through the hem iso to try to check the rest of your points

Notice how much more willing sheep is to put on a show for Flubber. He's scumreading Flubb, but is engaging him on sorting other players on a level deeper than his interaction with Hopkirk.
For whatever reason sheep is uninterested in HEM's lynch altogether. Will check this later.

can you try to sell me on there being scum in flub/seph

It's Flubb and Hopkirk, but Hopkirk-Buj does not make sense. So it could be sheep, as the third partner. Quote this in end game.

sheep isnt the third partner, do you still want this quoted
flubb im fine with, hop im sort of fine with, buj im fine with

how does hop/buj not work

More okay with a Flubb wagon than a Hopkirk wagon. But NOTABLY:

He wants to be sold on Flubberscum

. At no point did he ever ask anyone to sell him on Hop; he just continually promised to go read Hop's ISO and sort him himself. But Flubber he's willing to be convinced into this.

i was following his reasoning and seeing where his thoughts were coming from
i didnt see any actual case behind the wagon
i thought it was a bad wagon

kat's reasoning and case is actually really convincing
i agreed with the confidence in the flubb read, the inconsistency in his opinion about the wagon, the meta was lazy, and some weird post in the interaction about ucv

Shit this belongs in the Hopkirk thread whoops
I did this based off Ctrl+F because sheep never uses quotes
Well anyway he wasn't cool with the Hop wagon, thinks katy's case is convincing, yet underwhelmingly stays course on lynching town.

I don't know if it's just me or my ego or what, but it also irked me that flubb hasn't mentioned me. Why is he trying to distance himself? I think he wants to drag me down with him after he flips, or let town mislynch me on their own.

how many other people do you think flubb hasnt mentioned yet

Nullification of scumtell on Flubb, point in sheep/Flubb's favour.

Want mulch to sub in

does no one else like
feel sort of sorry for flubb

Off gut (and I'm confbiased at this point) this doesn't feel like scum talking about scum.

What do you think has players pegging sheep as obvtown?

i want to know this too actually lol

Parroting. This is also not something I usually see scum-scum do. He's sucking up to Flubbertown here.

kat/rem/nm/moz townblock solidifying
flubb is a townlean

No analysis on Flubb from me here, but it's interesting that Hopkirk and FBslot aren't in the townbloc. Inclusion of N_M implies scum there (yeah, call me a hypocrite, my slot's there too).

im psure flubb is town at this point
rem/kat/nm/moz still all likely town

And he's at the point of totally dropping the Flubber thing. Up to this post, Hopkirk/Flubber had exclusively voted townies (I think). By basic VCA, the two of them are basically equivalent. But he's pocketing one and distancing from the other.
Which one is his buddy?

how about we wait another five days until flubb has dropped a catchup and we can actually read him going into the night

Wants Flubb to come and catchup, but shows an interest in coming up with a read on Flubb that he never had re: Hopkirk.

i explained my flubb read earlier
he's still towny

He literally did not explain this.

No bonus round because sheep doesn't pull that shit with Flubb at all. He has a clear trajectory on Flubb that goes
Interrogation --> Nullscum --> Scum --> Null --> Null-town --> Town

This progression happened as Flubber continually made more of an ass out of himself in the thread by pushing townies. This is an attempted pocket. By the time Flubber was going after Hopkirk, Flubb was a nonviable wagon. Dead wagon. Only voted on by the vigshot cop and Hopkirk.

There's very little doubt in my mind that Hopkirk >>>> Flubber when it comes to sheep's scumpartner.

VCA suggests it, NKA suggests it, basic associative tells suggest it, and sheep meta suggests it.

If anyone needs a super duper tl;dr lemme know. I think I have a pretty solid view of events between the 3 of them now. If I've said anything wrong, factcheck me.

[Mathdino]

Time for the Not_Mafia case.

I've always said that N_M is a bitch to read based solely on himself. Granted, that's in games where I've actually played with N_M from the start or early on. His meta with me in-game is different from his meta without me because I go after him much harder than most players.

Anyway here's a thing:

Spoiler: sheep on Not_Mafia

Not mafia is my second candidate for scum. They were a lot more careless as town in the last games I've played with them compared to now.

was he more careless before or is he not careless here
he seems pcareless to me

how forced is this read?

I quoted this already in the Flubbercase but this defends Not_Mafia from early suspicion. Compares N_M with Flubber's opinion of N_M's town meta. Note that this isn't even an accurate assessment; N_M was definitely less careless in the first few pages than I've seen in his towngames.

nm is a pain in the ass to try to read

But instead of continuing with the original trajectory, sheep throws up his hands.

UC/Flubber/Sephiroth/INtercinfoanwrgaergn

ucv isnt a good wagon rn, agreeing entirely with kat that the "inconsistency" isnt rlly actual inconsistency
seph i liked his reaction to some pressure
inter is nullish
flubber is a wagon im fine with atm

This is scum/scum deciding on a lynch.
Notice how sheep isn't actually arguing with N_M or trying to debate him substantively (like sheep did with Flubber). He doesn't refer to UCV as town, he refers to UCV as a

bad wagon today

. This is a tactical choice. Also makes it likely scum don't have daytalk.

VOTE: Not_Mafia L-1 this pls and make him claim.

does anyone else feel like this is done only for the claim

Heyo I'm just gonna throw shade here on a N_M wagon despite not commenting on it earlier
If N_M is town, why does sheep give a rat's ass if N_M is mislynched D1?

do you see why i think there's only scum intention and no town intention there
nm is never today's lynch btw if that was made clear

Oh and now N_M can't be the lynch, but a lurksack UCV can.
See the inconsistency. sheep is totally okay lynching mislynch bait UCV end of D1, but is not okay lynching ML bait N_M.

no
next

Cheeky scum-scum interaction between 2 cheeky players. This is what I would expect of the two of them.

townblock of kat, hem, moz, nm

i have a townblock of kat, hem, moz, rem, and nm which im like 80% sure in

kat/rem/nm/moz townblock solidifying
flubb is a townlean

im psure flubb is town at this point
rem/kat/nm/moz still all likely town

Wow it's almost like N_M is in that townbloc for no reason at all.
Again, his trajectory on Hopkirk was wild, while his trajectory on Flubber was deliberate and easy to pick out.

VOTE: fire this doesnt have votes on it anymore

kat is never scum oml

ive begun to realize that i just always townread nm regardless of his alignment; i need to look into him later
i dont have time to catch up rn i missed like two weeks of school and there's a shit load of makeup to work on

BONUS BONUS ROUND GUYS. "I need to reevaluate this read later" but doesn't give a shit. His Flubber read is solid! His katy read is solid! But his reads on Hopkirk/N_M are not. He's not reading them.

fire/nm has scum rip

lol

So far I've only read sheep on N_M, and I haven't yet read N_M or Sergslot on sheep.

However I think it's pretty clear from this that N_M is a more likely scumbuddy than Firebringer. Same exact tells that sheep used on Hopkirk. Drops N_M in a townbloc but doesn't hard-defend him or really question him.

Looking into the Firebringer progression last and then I might look into individual ISOs, dunno yet.

[Mathdino]

Part of me hoped that this would be even more damning for sheep/Fire. But alas.
There's some fucking smoking gun shit in here for Fire-town.

Last partnerhunting case, here we go.

Spoiler: sheep on Sergtacos/Firebringer

Don't really have any reads yet

.... i didnt ask u what ur TR were lol

that doesnt mean he cant say he has no reads

sheep getting confrontational with Serg. Why cut off a scumbuddy's train of thought? It's negative utility.

havent read anything yet except this lol

could be self conscious, procrastinating scum

fos serg

self conscious i kind of see, but procrastination usually isnt a tell

Oh we need to put UCV at l-1?

VOTE: UCV

and an opportunistic vote as well!
yeah up for seriph or serg

im psure that was an rvs response to nm pushing for putting ucv at l1

Here he's defending against Serg through nullification of scumtells. Point for sheep/Fire.

from what ive read, my scumreads are ucv, you, bu, hop which might change when i read what happened overnight
i havent payed a whole lot of attention to hem or serg so i might want to look at them later

The "I'll read him later" tell. Point for sheep/Fire.
To be clear, I find towntells a LOT more damning than scumtells. Flubber and Fire interactions both have a lot of things consistent with sheepscum. But they also both have things heavily INconsistent, in ways that sheep's interactions with Hopkirk and N_M just aren't.

can we talk about serg wanting to massclaim

like it's pmuch dependent on why he wanted to massclaim

@SERG WHY YOU WANT MASSCLAIM

pedit he asked "why not"
it's likely serious tbh

Again, a weird confrontation cutting off scumbuddy's line of questioning. Setting up for a wagon...

serg's reaction test def seems more town than scum

...but it was a reaction test. And sheep has to townread him for that or else it seems opportunistic.
The only way they're scumbuddies here is if this was planned out. Daytalk possible but unlikely I think. There was a point somewhere where sheep was like "fuck off with that 'scum have daytalk because opening post'" shit that makes it seem like sheep already knew there was no daytalk.

Especially serg being a bumblebee because he tries to lurk as scum when things are chaotic enough as it is to acoid being read

does he do this as town
he seems not very active in general

Nullification of scumtells. Point for sheep/Serg.

i need to sort serg/seph/hop/bu

"I'll read this later" point.

serg's reaction test was more likely town than scum but he's still null imo

Here's where the smoking guns start.
All sheep has to do in the case of Serg/sheep is be like OKAY GUYS SERG IS LOCKTOWN, WHO DOES THAT REACTION TEST AS SCUM? This is easy to defend! But he doesn't. He leaves Serg in the lynchpool. Knowing sheep had scum motivation, this is scum allowing town to still be lynched.

dont fucking hammer yet
we can wait for ucv's replacement, but if he just prod dodges hammer away imo
literally hop and serg are like the vig candidates and none of them have been able to drop any thoughts for like at least five pages

I used this as evidence for Hopkirk scum. It theoretically also applies to Flubber/Serg scumteam, but this points away from Hopkirk/Firebringer scumteam. sheep openly defending both from being vigged? Nope.

i want to watch serg catch up

The Flubber tell. sheep seems legitimately interested in sorting Serg and watching what Serg does. He may have dropped the "I'll read this later" tells, but he maintains that interest, while he completely dropped it for Hopkirk/Not_Mafia.

but like serg just coming in and just placing a random vote and not trying to figure out what else is going on is pretty bad

Throwing shadddde.

yea serg/seph is fine with me
i'll try to look at hop soon

I guess he's finally sorted Serg, while he still hasn't sorted Hop. Why would he lynchpool his buddy while nullscumming his other buddy?

except maybe serg who has no idea what the hell is going on

NAI I think. I got nothing here. Replace-in comes in after this.

idk what fire's meta is like
what alignment is a fluffy entrance that doesnt try to do anything progressing indicative towards

Throwing shadddde. Unnecessary shade at that, but I'll have to look at Firebringer's entrance.
sheep is treating Fire EXTREMELY similarly to how he treated Flubber.

fire whawt do you think about seph's omgusy turn on hem
like seph your meta defense about how you wouldnt reread can just be you tryhardding

Engagement of Firebringer in a way that seems interested in influencing Fire's reads. Also completely unlike Hopkirk/N_M.

kat is there anything else behind your fire townread
other than like he feels like a human or smth

Trying to nullify a townread. Noooope.

fire's hop onto the seph wagon i dont like

More shade!

i'll look back at that wagon later
it was really quick im psure there's scum in there
dont like fire's hop onto it

OH SHIT EVEN MORE SHADE. Now setting up lynches on people who were on a town wagon.

like fire didnt even seem caught up or in a place where he had opinions on hem or seph and he just votes seph automatically when hem says wagon seph
it doesnt feel right

I haven't read Firebringer's ISO yet but this feels exactly like Firebringer.
sheep's correct move to not get attention on his scumbuddy is just a simple "Eh this seems like Firebringer always does this shit". Not jumping on FB for opportunistic playstyle-related reasons.

VOTE: fire this doesnt have votes on it anymore

Let's see if this gets votes!

pedit name one townie thing in fire's iso

Damn, trying really hard to nullify Firebringer townreads.

My name.

Next question

good answer

do you want to explain why you never see me being town

Confrontation unseen with Hopkirk/N_M.

like can someone try to sell me on town!fire

Tunneling on town. The fact that he never townreads Fire implies that he doesn't actually want to be sold on this.

didnt bother unvoting because i dont see town hopping onto fire right now?

Guess it doesn't get any traction. Whoops!
Utterly useless buss if this is a bus.

fire/nm has scum rip

Like this is a surprise!

The way he interacts with Firebringer's slot is incredibly similar to how he interacts with Flubber.

- He wants to confront and influence townies
- He's interested in engaging them on themselves and their reads
- No softball questions, he just starts calling them out
- He has a very very clear trajectory on both of them, setting both of them up for convincing potential mislynches

I could name more.

Firebringer and Flubber are both town, and are thus my audience, likely along with katy/HEM.

I'm unwilling to read people based on anything that's happened since my entrance and ESPECIALLY not since these cases. It's now in 2 people's interest to remove/discredit me and they're naturally going to tear any case I write on them apart.

I'm thinking of doing a search for sheep's progression on my slot. I actually haven't self-ISO'd at all because I assumed this slot was just a lurksack all game.

IF YOU'RE GONNA READ ANYTHING, READ THIS:

sheep interacts with Hopkirk in the same damn way he interacts with N_M. He slaps reads on them without explanation and is uninterested in actually sorting them. He delivers softball questions and doesn't give a shit about their reads, only about who he can lynch with them.

sheep interacts with Flubbernugget in the same damn way he interacts with Firebringer's slot. He has clear progressions on them that result in trying (and failing) to push mislynches on them. He throws shade at them constantly but also gets confrontational with them and argues with them about their reads.

If anyone wants me to actually go check katy/HEM and still thinks one of them might be scum, I will. But from getting a sense of sheep's ISO in general, I see little to indicate katy-scum and not much to indicate HEM-scum.

So it's either Hopkirk/N_M or Flubber/Firebringer.

Hopkirk/N_M: sheep plays the conservative scumgame. Doesn't push these 2 out into the open unless he has to to join the town's consensus.

Flubber/Firebringer: Mad distancing/busgame, sheep tries to fuck up as many associations as possible by confronting them and throwing shit at them at every opportunity.

From my knowledge of sheep, the scumteam is

sheep/Hopkirk/Not_Mafia

[Mathdino]

Don't blame me, I was happy to and am still happy to hammer/vote him.

I dare you to vote me. This saves me the trouble of having to go and argue for katyusha-town, HEM-town, and the possibility of Flubber/Firebringer.

sheep's progression on my slot incoming, just as a comparison to Hopkirk/N_M and Flubber/Fire.

[Mathdino]

There's basically nothing here.

A couple times he was like "wtf u doin putting schism in your scumpool" and NAI shots at inactivity.

Spoiler: sheep on Schism/Rem

schism isnt lurking; he/she last visited the site on the 7th

meh

rem's catchup felt natural

Throws a townread

i have a townblock of kat, hem, moz, rem, and nm which im like 80% sure in

Does anyone in the game scumread Sheep/NM/Rem

three towns
no

Townbloccing. Yawn.
He at least gave one reason for throwing Rem in the townlist. No reasons for N_M.

yeah that multi iso actually makes me rlly sold
like everything inter posts just doesnt feel like it comes with the intention of moving the game forward
i could consider redirecting at this point
also the way rem puts it is obvtown

Sheeps a major townread.

kat/rem/nm/moz townblock solidifying
flubb is a townlean

More townbloccing.

Hammering before we get a replacement helps scum so lets not do that

do you want to try to explain this

Confrontation.

rem/kat/nm/moz still all likely town

More townbloccing.

His interaction with Rem was similar to N_M in that he's townbloccing someone.

I'd argue that it's more similar to Flubber/Fire (on a much much smaller scale) in that he at least confronts Rem once, and gives 2 very basic reasons for his read on Rem, which is more than he gave on Not_Mafia.

You guys can decide on this one. I'm confbiased by knowing I'm town. There's really just not much content here.

My biggest reason that Rem is town actually is that no one actually cared about getting Rem replaced. As scum, it's often better to make sure your scumbuddies get replaced while letting townslots lurk out. This increases scum control of the game.

2 mislynches and 2 missed vigshots implies this game was scum controlled with a town implosion. You don't often see that from lurksack scum paired with uncharismatic sheep. This is a scumteam that didn't bus and let/encouraged town to lynch town. Getting an inkling of the idea that sheep wanted Rem around to mislynch Inter for scum and then set up Rem as a mislynch today. But again, informed by knowing my alignment.

That's what I got. Going to sleep. Don't hammer me before I can talk to katy/HEM.

Edit: oh jeez here's a guy trying to read me based on lylo
sigh this is gonna be a rough game with 2 scum to control while i sleep
cya

[Mathdino]

From my perspective, scum have been setting things up to lynch me in a lylo situation all game- systematically removing the people who defend me, light pushing, but avoiding lynching me while not lynching me.

So I'm not talking to you, because you and I are fundamentally at odds this LyLo. Feel free to respond or not but I obviously don't blame you for this.

This is not actually something I see scum do very often. Pocketing a mislynchable player and taking them to LyLo is a weird move. The reason you pocket someone is so they lynch town for you. You get rid of people that can't be lynched and who have good reads or solving ability.

It's definitely something I see scum with plans do.

But Hopkirk is implying that a team consisting of sheep and a lurksack slot planned this out to leave him in LyLo so town would go after him.

I'm also seeing him PoE himself out of sensible scumteams, which I often find to be a big LyLo scumtell. Scum finds it harder to defend their narrative the more PoE creeps up on them.

Anyway carry on.

Edit: Hope I'm not wrong on you dude. I obviously didn't even try to convince you it's Flubber/Fire because there's just so much evidence against it. If it is, sheep played much better than I expected him to.

[Mathdino]

Dino's posting today is asking for support from Kat/HeM.

To be clear, this is because

A. They're the only ones who seem receptive to what I have to say.

B. It seems like if one of them IS scum, we've lost already just due to consensus from the rest of the town.

HEM is super fucking obvtown IMO from his interaction with Seph. I could reread but with 4 votes on me it doesn't matter anymore.

Katy, meh. Surprised she isn't dead but there've only been 2 scum kills so.

[Mathdino]

To be clear, Scum Control doesn't mean Scum Leader. Scum Control just means that scum isn't letting other scum get lynched or seriously suspected.

Scum control was at varying times used by the 3 of you to always be on town wagons throughout the game. Flubber, Inter, Bujaber, Seph, briefly Serg/Fireslot, UCV.

Most of these wagons (from just skimming NSG's ISO) have 2 or more of the scumteam I'm talking about.

Scum allowed town to push through its own mislynches and completely self destruct by making townies the consensus scumreads. It doesn't take scum going out there and walling up cases all the time. It just takes votes, repetition, and encouragement of townies who are on the wrong track. Not_Mafia-scum's entire style is "let town implode". I don't know about yours or very much of sheep's, but sheep's style in the one game isn't often to hardbus or throw suspicion on his buddies.

I can take a look deeper into sheep's meta if anyone wants. He says it's evolved but I don't think bussing tendencies often evolve over time. I'm pretty confident on this already.

Edit: lol N_M

Edit: Doesn't matter. We're both talking to an audience other than each other. Gg either way, sorry I couldn't sub in earlier.

[Mathdino]

VOTE: Sheep

wait shit this is important

I WANT TO BE CLEAR TO EVERYONE THAT THIS IS ACTUALLY A RARE RELEVANT LYLO THING.

If Not_Mafia keeps his vote on me, this confirms everyone other than the 4 voting me as town. Confirms them to me, to be fair, but PoEs the game down nonetheless.

No one should be voting me at this point other than Not_Mafia, who's free to I guess. This will result in a quickhammer if anyone does. Talk to me first.

[Mathdino]

VOTE: Hopkirk

3 of Sheep/Math/Kat/Flubber.

Why this?

[Mathdino]

Also Flubberscum just straight up doesn't match up unless Firebringer is also scum. From your perspective, that's actually kind of a consistent scumteam.

Edit: I have thoughts on the lynch order I want to resolve first. Plus I want katy/HEM's clear on my logic (from my POV of course) that ensures that it's definitely not Flubber/Fire, because then voting you ends the game.

Edit2: The key is that sheep is the one that hasn't given reasons for scumreading you. Everyone else has.

[Mathdino]

Last thing
HEM I know I didn't quite summarize it narrative style but I had to do the quote fest to actually figure it out for myself. It's optional reading. Read the summaries and you're good.
Katy I didn't get to Not_Maf meta but a glance at his ISO did seem strongly like his scumgame from experience previously metadiving him. I will back this up later on.

All that said, the game is solvable solely by how similarly sheep treated Hopkirk and Not_Mafia. He scumread one and townread the other, but he otherwise barely tried to sort them or interact with them to influence them.

This also applies lowkey to my slot, yes, and I accounted for that at the end of my sheep Rem thing.

VOTE: Not_Mafia
Leaving vote here (safe ftr). If you guys are convinced, go ahead and end it. If not, wait til I'm back pls and ty.

[Mathdino]

You don't have any questions? I thought there's be questions.

[Mathdino]

People are voting off of the confirmed scum and I think that's good reason the day needs to end now.

Full catch up soon

Voting Math off first means that if we're wrong about Math then the game ends instead of being meaninglessly extended.
Voting Sheep first just means we have to wait another 2-3 days before knowing if Math is scum.
Voting Sheep off first doesn't provide any real benefit.

I ironically agree with this scumfuck except for N_M and not me.

I want to lynch N_M first because currently there's a town of 5 to figure out who scum is, and N_M is (I think) going to be the toughest to agree on.

Every obvscum (sheep, Hopkirk) we lynch is one less townie to figure it out in endgame.

We all know it's sheep and Hopkirk. I could theoretically be wrong and have it be Hopkirk/Fire instead, and yeah, from your perspectives it could be Hopkirk/me (or potentially Flubber/me?).

My LyLo philosophy is to get the hardest lynch out of the way first and for me to personally 1v1 them over it. Because if we end up shooting wrong, I'd rather do that sooner than later.

And it would be pretty fucking memetic to take sheep to 3p.

Edit: I don't think that team is crossed out? It's basically impossible due to the vastly different ways sheep treated Hopkirk and Flubber/Fire's slot though IMO.

[Mathdino]

Sheep is literally claimed scum, there is no Hopkirk/Fire/Me possibility

There is when each one of the remaining confirmed townies (Flubber/katy/HEM) know that not speaking out about who the less solidified scum is potentially means they get killed before they can have a hand in that decision.

sheep isn't a factor in the discussion. Right now we have 2 scum voices and 5 town voices. If we lynch sheep we'll have 2 scum voices and 4 town voices. Then lynch Hopkirk, we'll have 1 to 3.

I'd rather the scumteam be agreed on by the whole town than by whatever scum handpicks to be the ones left.

And we've all agreed that we'd rather this end sooner than later. To that end, I'm saying it needs to be you or me today. I don't want to spend the next 2 game days Mathposting if it's all for nothing anyway.

Edit: It's LyLo. Not asking you to townread me based on me walling. I'm arguing my point based on interactions from sheep through the game.

[Mathdino]

You're talking to me like you don't know I'm scum. You should "know" I'm scum by now because I'd be hammered otherwise.

- You don't see the arguments compelling because it leads to you being scum.
- I have a lot of conviction over this scumteam right now. I didn't start with any because I hadn't read the game with any detail. You can plot my trajectory on how sure I am of that scumteam as I sift through those quotes.
- There's no one to save except myself. I've never been in a LyLo where I was a lynch candidate. I can gamesolve all the same though.
- They're all conftown to me.

Vote me, N_M. If you and I are both town it's over anyway. I'd like to get the "Flubber/katy/HEM conftown" thing over with.

[Mathdino]

2957 is some clever spin if I've ever seen it

It's not bad actually. Doing what he can with what he has.

I don't think sheep's behaviour toward Fire/N_M is anywhere near as consistent as his behaviour toward Hopkirk/N_M.

That said, if we can get Hopkirk's busvote on N_M along with 3 more townies I'm fuckin satisfied, as that leads to a much more lax endgame imo.

Yo Hopkirk vote N_M with me and at least prove certain scumteams are impossible.

Edit: "Scum try to self-hammer and fail" is something I see all the time. Not Kodak worthy, sry xD

[Mathdino]

Go read my case on sheep not being scum with Fire. sheep's attitude toward the two of their slots has been wildly different.

It's hard for me to prove that to a theoretical town-you because the case is based around sheep treating you and N_M similarly, and Flubber and Fire similarly.

sheep was setting them up for mislynch, not you.

[Mathdino]

Like, Hopkirk, if I knew you were town, then yeah Fire/N_M would be the obvious call.

If it's not that, it's Fire/Flubber.

[Mathdino]

Like, Hopkirk, if I knew you were town, then yeah Fire/N_M would be the obvious call.

If it's not that, it's Fire/Flubber.

Like normally id think this is a pocket post for Dino to hop but I think they are just scum
And a lot of Dino posts feel Pockety

Help Scum Bus is a good motto motto.

I'm okay with pocketing scum as long as it means I can get the right lynch. A lot of LyLos end up that way for me.

What you're reading as pockety is the fact that I fundamentally treat small gamestates like this politically. I need to think about the votes I need to get in order to get this lynch.

And if you're unwilling to vote N_M right now, and scum is willing to bus him, I'm fine with that. At that point it's just katy/Flubber/HEM that I need to convince.

My (biased) interpretation is that Hopkirk doesn't think he can win a 1v1 with me, so he's scrambling to make the Fire lynch plausible after N_M potentially goes down today. He's distancing himself from N_M by openly not including me in possible scumteams.

[Mathdino]

Then you're scumreading me on playstyle, and you know better than to do that.

I often think like scum in LyLo. I share "needing to not get lynched" (although scum can definitely get lynched and still win) and "needing to lynch specific people".

Notice that I'm not considering lynching you today, and my interaction with Hopkirk in no way indicates that. N_M or sheep is our lynch. N_M being the least convincing scum to you guys, and sheep being conf. Hopkirk is a middle of the road lynch and idk why we'd do that today.

I'm open to anything that involves someone in that scumteam lynched though.

tl;dr: You've shown how it's consistent with scum motivation but not how it's inconsistent with town motivation. From my perspective, I've solved the game. Now it's just politics.

[Mathdino]

I'm not reading this based off of either ISO because I recognise that I'm barely able to read them. I'm solving this based on sheep's scumclaim and ISO.

[Mathdino]

There is no town motivation from Fire or Serg.

This is a sweeping statement that’s absolutely untrue!

When i’m back I’m going to be asking math and hop a lot of questions so hang tight

You still have questions for Hopkirk?
If you legitimately think there's a chance of him still being town, then the scumteam is STILL including Not_Mafia.

Serg makes minor pushes at 5 confirmed town (from both our perspectives), ignores NM/Sheep, and subs out.

You're ignoring the part where idc about Serg/Fire's ISOs cuz I don't expect to be able to read them for shit.

Edit: Because I've played with sheep and I expect him and his associations to be much easier to read than just trying to determine who's scummier out of 3 people in a game I wasn't a part of?

[Mathdino]

I'm not reading this based off of either ISO because I recognise that I'm barely able to read them. I'm solving this based on sheep's scumclaim and ISO.

When has this been a thing?

When have I claimed to be able to read you? I also literally don't know Sergtacos or Hopkirk.

All of my cases have been all sheep interactions. I don't know when it wasn't a thing.

[Mathdino]

You’ve never claimed to read me but this first time I’ve heard u say you can’t and or aren’t gonna try

You haven't completed a game with me, so idk what you're going off of.

I can't toneread for shit. Unfortunately that means that a lot of MU type posters are able to fly under my radar. I let other people handle that shit. If katy, HEM, and Flubber decide there's no fucking way you can't be scum, I'll probably be forced to trust them on that.

I know my strengths, and my strengths are gamesolving LyLos with flips and associations.

Do you want me to write up an ISO of you, Serg, N_M and Hop? Like it's not gonna be very good so I really don't know if I even wanna read that.

[Mathdino]

I have my methods and those methods have worked for me. There are multiple smoking guns in sheep's ISO that indicate you're town. It's a level of distancing that I don't currently believe is in sheep's scumrange.

[Mathdino]

sheep, why didn't you ever get to sorting Hopkirk in particular?

[Mathdino]

Not_Mafia, still don't understand why you're not voting me.

[Mathdino]

i'll be on for the next like 2 minutes if you want to interact with me to try to sort me

i wanna see how sloppy he gets

[Mathdino]

also it's not negative utility and i'm just dicking around waiting for katyusha

tick tock

[Mathdino]

Bored town Not_Mafia doesn't scramble like this

but again i'm confbiased by knowing he's scum >.<

Willing to back up any part of my argument, even parts that I haven't justified yet. I have the benefit/advantage of actually being right on this; the logic is there, just needs to be dredged up.

HEM thoughts on the last couple pages?

[Mathdino]

i'm honestly flabbergasted there were 2 vigs and not_mafia still managed to get to mylo lol

n_m if scum isn't me who is it

[Mathdino]

One vig got a chance to shoot
use vigs on policy next time, people

anyway yeah HEM see my argument on why scum lurker + scumsheep + scumhopkirk doesn't have nearly as much town control

[Mathdino]

not_mafia was far more helpful to lynching town

as town he usually gets into at least one scumtunnel

this is scum supporting/encouraging town ripping itself apart

while lowkey directing people away from each other (except hopkirk who is pro distancer)

[Mathdino]

just wanna say that i facepalmed through this entire game

literally lynched ultimate ML bait lurky UCV

then strongarmed someone into an ultimatum

like seriously this postgame is gonna be a shitstorm guys

[Mathdino]

ML bait lurky UCV and not-going-to-cooperate Seph are not policy lynches that you'd have wanted?

I like to save ML bait UCV for D2. He's easier to read lategame. I don't policy him D1.

You know exactly what the deal was with Seph, lol. I've been refraining from giving you shit for it cuz you're conftown and I'm the one on the stand, but yeah, that was pretty bad tbh. Wouldn't have policied Seph.

[Mathdino]

if you threaten me with your claim if i don't do something
i will let you dig your own hole 9 times out of 10, regardless of my alignment
just doesn't work

honestly d1 idk
i specifically requested to NSG that i be a lategame replacement so i could keep the game from stalling out
so it was a given that i would never influence d1 or d2
so i didn't care
i haven't read all of d1 in depth

i remember thinking hopkirk was scummy a few times (flubber's argument wasn't bad) d1 or d2 but that's real easy to say with hindsight

[Mathdino]

I don't read long games chronologically, I read ISOs and high level chronologies. This kills the context, but context is only really useful/interesting to me if I'm actually there.

Knowing the politics of D1/D2 and what I personally would've done doesn't matter to me. What does matter is the general flow of the game, which I can get by reading a few ISOs, noticing how people reacted to the same events, checking the VCAs and major scumreads at varying points, etc.

If anyone really wants me to go read D1/D2 I'll skim it, but I'm not gonna do a weird longass catchup post from LyLo. My specialty in LyLos is associations.

To answer your question, I based my conclusions on sheep's ISO. Feel free to read the different cases.

[Mathdino]

lawl

[Mathdino]

Just wanna point out that the next vote on sheep results in a self hammer.

Not gonna be me.

Katy, you promised so many questions

[Mathdino]

Ikr

Almost like Hopkirk and sheep are literally trying to make that look like the team

"request votecount" lol'd

[Mathdino]

tfw you still don't have a scumteam in mind that doesn't involve you/me

if neither of us can come up with one, you're confscum to me

then your partners are just bussing for optics *shrug*

[Mathdino]

how the hell does firebringer make sense with sheep tho

[Mathdino]

Why Flubber over Sephiroth

why do you care

I agree with sheep here, why does Internecine care? Sheep did say he's down to lynch either. Perhaps Flub is scum and Seph isn't and thats why Internecine voted Seph and is asking sheep why he's voting flub instead of seph?

like it's pmuch dependent on why he wanted to massclaim

@SERG WHY YOU WANT MASSCLAIM

pedit he asked "why not"
it's likely serious tbh

Who wouldn't want a massclaim?

like how is this scum-scum interaction

not to mention sheep later was like "wow okay that reaction test was pretty townish... but fuck it he's still nullscum"

how does this have any utility for scumsheep

[Mathdino]

Will respond shortly

[Mathdino]

Why does scum!n_m react to firebringer's claim the way he did? This isn't like me doubting he can be scum moreso this is a Thought I had and want to see how a scum!confirmed!basically perspective sees it

I remember Fire's claim (IIRC it was cop inno on N_M) but I don't remember people's reactions to it. By that point some important other games had started and I'd honestly lost hope for this game and for being able to replace into it.

I'll go check that out, will get back to you in next post.

I mean more fundamentally if N_M is town that forces Firebringer to be scum which is all kinds of ick. So in going and doing this, I'm gonna be trying to convince you while being affected by knowing N_M is scum for sure. I'm guessing N_M had some super genuine reaction or some shit. I'd recommend reading Marked For Death Day 2 to see N_M fake town-reaction-tests as scum and getting away with it and pretending it helped him scumhunt. He's not an idiot.

Why did you give up on your scumread on me? If you're town, you should probably know that "Oh if you're scum then we just lose" isn't a good mindset, I believe I'm still mechanically possible scum, so I'd like to hear your trajectory as to why you haven't considered me at all

Was a lazy guess. I don't actually remember why I was scumreading you; NSG asked me to pick a team and i was like "ok fuck what teams are even consistent at this point" because sheep's initial MyLo behaviour struck me as pretty town. So I was like "okay sheep is town, HEM is town, one of hopkirk/flubber is town, and N_M and fire are probably just being N_M and fire, so by PoE it's lurksack Rem, LAMIST katy, and one of hopkirk/flubber".

I wasn't actually scumreading you but I saw your name thrown around a couple times before I joined up so that was my attempt to blindly pin the tail on the scumteam.

When I actually joined up I started reading shit and I stopped seeing any sense of you being scum by your own content or by sheep's content. And I figured because that's basically town consensus, there's no point in me writing a town-case for you when no one is thinking about voting you anyway. Flubber and Fire were (later on) more necessary towncases to write.

brb reading

[Mathdino]

Also just a note, it looks like you're already pretty set on Mathscum; obviously defending myself is a secondary consideration and a lower priority than spotlighting the scumteam, but I haven't actually seen why, or whether it's based on Rem's ISO, Rem's interactions with sheep, or has to do with my behaviour since replacing in.

So if paranoia of my slot is what's gonna prevent you from seeing the scumteam regardless of what I argue, we should probably address it. Or if we can't address it, I'd rather be lynched right now than in at least 5 real life days knowing that whomever left is probably going to default to "Oh it's just N_M being N_M" which is honestly pretty frustrating/irritating because I've specifically lost a game due to that argument.

tl;dr if you're gonna kill me anyway, kill me now, but otherwise talk about why you wanna kill me while i go work on d3

[Mathdino]

dear diary: i'm really not seeing what katy's talking about but i'm picking up N_M quotes and hopefully i'll see what she means further down

[Mathdino]

ahh yeah i was wondering when you started that if you only knew the radio censored version

ofc ofc

[Mathdino]

So I'm not sure what I expected katy but I guess I expected more than this?

I'm shooting in the dark as to why you think this forces N_M-town but I'll just go through this first and then see if you've actually made the argument in your ISO.

Fire claims innocent on Not_Mafia. N_M-scum knows Fire is full of shit as usual. Obviously N_M-scum can't just be like SURPRISE BITCH I REALLY AM SCUM YOU LIAR.

@mod How would a Universal Back-Up resolve if two PRs died in the same night?

So he asks the question that potentially exposes Fire as lying regardless of N_M's alignment

And I'm town regardless of Fire's alignment

preps himself for the "DAE FIRE AND N_M SCUM?!?!" argument

First time ever that a mod has called me out on a gambit.

lulz, why didn't you ask?

VOTE: Firebringer

Pounces on him for the lie

Lol I am actually Town

UNVOTE:

Why gambit like this in MyLo?

And then backs off for no reason?

Forcing this 1v1 early is bad for N_M cuz he can frame it as Rem being scum instead. But he's clearly setting up Fire to have low cred going in.

I'm benefited by having seen N_M extremely believably fake reactions to things. That said, I think as town he'd just accept Firebringer's inno, because like Fire said somewhere, "Why fake an inno instead of a guilty?" Instead N_M set up Firebringer to get discredited, implying he knew Fire was full of shit from the onset.

standard confbias disclaimer here
now ISOing you for why you buy into this

[Mathdino]

it's just that one interaction felt kind of genuine to me. same with rem's D1 to some extent (some parts i really don't like, some parts I do like). i feel like articulating the exact points doesn't help us just yet since i'm not focusing on convincing another townie and i'm more focused on reading you and i dont want knowledge of why i feel a specific way besides what i've said to impact how you play around me if that makes sense

Yeah okay you really need to rifle through this game.

Marked For Death is a setup where every night instead of killing, scum turn a VT into a named townie set to die at the end of the day. The VT is informed but no one else is.

I was marked and N_M claimed marked after we were all setting him up for a lynch that day. I went with it to get reactions out of people, and N_M revealed the "gambit" before I did. Being marked confirms you as town (scum have to mark every night) but the way N_M went about it sold everyone on it being town-motivated. Which I'm not sure is what he intended (I forget what he said in the scum PT) but point stands.

N_M-scum has a larger range than you think. And he adapts himself to the playerlist at hand.

[Mathdino]

N_m pulled off of fire though before I asked

He was thinking it through imo while I think scum sticks to their guns

I disagree. N_M would've lost a 1v1 with Firebringer for sure. It's absolutely within Fire's meta to fakeclaim shit like that as town.
And keep in mind N_M knew Firebringer was town already. So of course he knows that Fire would fakeclaim like that as town.
Rem is/was an easier mislynch.

If fire/n_m was a preplanned scum gambit wouldn’t they especially follow through with UB rules?

I mean this is an okay argument as to Fire/N_M not scum together but this also implies that they would ever plan anything, which is a faulty assumption

have not read your last post brb

[Mathdino]

but the way i envision this game i see nm/dino solved in a 4-way mylo with two hammertested townies in {me flubber monkey fire} discussing the arguments either way

unless it becomes a lot clearer on the way there i think it's better to get the easier lynches out of the way first. it's more time, less clutter, and maybe seeing which townies scum elect to remove first provides some sort of information

pedit: i guess it was him unvoting before i asked that made me feel it was ~genuine~ in real time

what i have to ask though is why doesn't n_m question the claim in mylo? you said it yourself, n_m is smarter than he lets on and I've been fully aware of this. surely from a town pov it would make sense to question that claim?

pedit: thinking. also great contribution n_m beyoncety.gif

1. I'm extremely not okay with that on the basis that the longer this game goes on, the less anyone will actually give a shit who we lynch. I want N_M/me solved now before town numbers start dwindling.

2. LyLo NKA is bad tbh. If we lynch Hopkirk, they'll probably kill Flubber for being extra confirmed. But outside of that it's anyone's guess. My understanding is that you, HEM, and Fire are all more on N_M's side here so they could literally kill anyone at this rate. More than likely you since you're a stabilising element.

3. Again, why would scum fakeclaim an innocent on some random townie? In N_M's position I don't think I'd have set up Fire like that. It was a pretty convincing claim even when I spectated it. The point is that N_M knew Fire was bullshitting already.

No comment on the unvote. If anything that's against what I know of town-Not_Mafia since town-Not_Mafia shoots from the hip to get shit over with.

[Mathdino]

I mean this is an okay argument as to Fire/N_M not scum together but this also implies that they would ever plan anything, which is a faulty assumption

I trolled you as a teammate and plotted out the whole game, you know I have the ability to anticipate reactions and plan a scum gambit accordingly, so does Fire

tfw literally making an argument that N_M/Fire could be scum together

[Mathdino]

You're calling Firebringer town and also telling me I shouldn't have backed off of him, you can't have your cake and eat it too

It's inconsistent with what I know of you.

I'm also in the frame of not really seeing how that makes you town anyway. "Scum would stick to their guns" doesn't really make sense to me and I've rarely if ever seen that to be true in LyLo.

Perfect example is Hopkirk who suddenly became more enlightened than the Dalai Lama tripping balls on LSD once I started making real arguments for sheep/Hop/N_M.

If scum sticks to their guns, then that also makes Hop town, which is just bad.

[Mathdino]

N_M I've made numerous arguments as to why you and Fire's slot aren't scum together already. I don't feel I need to defend that point based on overanalysis of a few posts. sheep's ISO is enough for me to rule that out.

I've been transparent about my thought process. You're literally arguing "town-Mathdino wouldn't rule out me/Fire as a scumteam" which is...



waaaaat?

[Mathdino]

Hopkirk is on a sinking ship. I honestly don't think the particular person someone pushes to lynch first in 8p LyLo is alignment indicative.

As either alignment I lynch the harder to lynch person first, then save confscum for 3p.

Hopkirk might do something differently.

And a lot of people choose to just lynch confscum first.

Basically that's not an argument. Hopkirk wins a lot of towncred if he's pushing you as hard as I am and if we get your lynch through today.

Edit: have not read katy's last post

[Mathdino]

Lynch scum, not me, not refuse to vote conf scum when we still have 8 players and what? 4 or 5 players unclaimed?

Yeah see this is literally untrue and completely antithetical to how I play LyLo in general.

JP Mafia. Newbie 1841.

You haven't even seen me in LyLo. I don't like ending days by speedlynching confscum.

But you should know that from my N0 guilty in Switch.

[Mathdino]

what reason do scum have to waffle

obviously here n_m!scum would be trying to look town in the first place by unvoting so i guess it's kind of a dumb question but i dont think saying "scum would stick to their guns" is an unreasonable assumption, theyre the ones who come into the game with a planned agenda in mind

Scum can't plan shit. Look at the timestamps on that interaction; it was all within a span of minutes. Turbospeed.

I'm arguing that N_M knew Fire was town already and was setting him up to fall.

But then he realised Fire wouldn't go down so easily and 1v1ing Fire would have the strong potential to just confirm N_M as scum down the line.

None of it was planned because he didn't plan for Fire's fakeclaim.

if monkey or fire or flubber need me to explain why i can because there were a few posts from the other days that made me less sure about this but still

happy to address, etc etc

Edit: HEM I really don't want to drag this game out. Every gameday is gonna be taken up by me fighting N_M and trying to lynch the harder-to-lynch scum first.

If we resolve this now with all the townies present, either
A. we lose now and not later
B. the next 2 days are ez street and we just quicklynch confscum and win in 4 days. Maybe scum resigns.

Plus the memery of taking sheep to 3p is too good and you know it.

[Mathdino]

Also I just wanna point out that katy would've pretty easily been able to end this by forcing a lynch on me with Fire's and the scumteam's help, and that's how I know katy's been town basically since my replace-in.

HEM could theoretically do the same or similar.

Edit: I've never seen you actually AtE, huh.

[Mathdino]

right, but he sees the claim and knows he'll react one way to it. even if he doesnt have the night to think he still is informed and doesn't have to actually react naturally to the claim

"ok, i don't think this is believable, I think town!me would vote here"

vs

"i think this claim is somewhat believable even though i know it's fake so i'm going to feel it out and see what town does before taking any drastic action since that's what town!me would do"

instead he chooses to contradict his thought process. what's the benefit here (besides obviously looking town, which i concede is probably the intention but if that's the only possibility i can understand then i dont really know what to make of it)

i understand this might not make sense and honestly i dont even care about this point because n_m's last few posts have been terrible so

N_M-scum explicitly doesn't play exactly like his town-persona does. He plays to his wincon. Read the scum/dead PTs of the games I've played with N_M-scum.

And yeah if looking town and also not losing a 1v1 to Fire is the result of unvoting, then you've made the argument for me.

Reminder that you really shouldn't be reading people off of LyLo in general, and that a much better argument for N_M-scum is in my cases on sheep's interactions with the 5 of us.

Another argument for lynching N_M first: We have the unique asset of sheep and Hopkirk being willing to bus now, that may not exist tomorrow.

Personally I think that N_M scumflip confirms me as town which gets Firebringer off my ass tomorrow as well. I don't think I pull this off if town (let's be honest probably you) dies tonight. But N_M flip turns this into easy mode that any town could solve.

No matter how few shits they give at this point :/

[Mathdino]

Yes, seriously go over Math's posts with a fresh mind, there's nothing there, it's all style no substance

I resent that.

I went into this by wiping prior reads because they were so obviously shit and didn't account for sheep confscumming himself.

My posts are a stream of consciousness process of me trying to figure out who the scumteam is.

I didn't come up with a scumteam first and then go defend it. I came up with assumptions on what sheep would do as scum (based on what I know of him) and THEN pored over the evidence.

I assumed there'd be more than enough evidence for the correct scumteam because guess what, I'm town and I know for sure there's a correct scumteam out there. I just needed to dig it up.

And I did. It led me to Hopkirk scum independent of other reasons to scumread Hopkirk.

yeah if you have to argue fire is scum then there's just no point in saying he scumclaimed because he has to call you as scum as scum and town alike, there's no way for me to tell the difference objectively without reads etc

and fire i think your opinion here is biased, it could be right but I want to hear from monkey

I don't really understand this.

But regardless I really REALLY don't want to go into 5p or 3p Lylo without scum who's explicitly willing to bus. I want Fire proven wrong now and not postgame.

[Mathdino]

n_m if you're town he cant be, fire's obvfucking town and hop is obvfucking scum so it has to be since we already confirmed by votes hop/flubber is not a team iirc

anyway i need to think

Reminder that I didn't know Fire was obvtown and didn't know that Hop was obvscum before I started my analysis. sheep's ISO easily led me to both conclusions.

I did know HEM was obvtown because of the shitshow with Sephiroth but that's a different thing.

just. lynch. sheep.

i think you've been swayed, kat. scum!n_m had a lot of reasons to tunnel fire right there and get him lynched with the help of his scumteam and my vote. he didn't have to bus hopkirk and sheep two hours later. if he's scum!n_m, he'd have already pegged me as VI D2 and pocketed me like what I've been baiting scum to do.

for now, i want the additional night so hopefully potential unclaimed prs can further this game for us.

I heavily doubt there's extra PRs out there right now. I'm not willing to gamble this. We have an opportunity to let scum bus. We lynch scum, then Fire loses the game on his tunnel.

[Mathdino]

Also N_M-scum objectively always loses a 1v1 with Firebringer-town.

[Mathdino]

We lynch

conf

scum, then Fire loses the game on his tunnel.

FTFMyself

[Mathdino]

he didn't have to bus hopkirk and sheep two hours later. if he's scum!n_m, he'd have already pegged me as VI D2 and pocketed me like what I've been baiting scum to do.

Yes he did. Fire was obvtown and so were you and katy.

Rem is not a difficult mislynch. NOTICE THAT N_M TRIES TO LYNCH REM FIRST INSTEAD OF SHEEP. BEFORE REM GOT THE REPLACEMENT.

[Mathdino]

pedit: why does town dino need to justify his play to you if you're confscum to each other

Pretend it's postgame. I think N_M would be criticising my posts for style-over-substance even if he were town, and I feel the need to back that up both to him and to others.

Like I want to be very clear to everyone that I didn't have a preconception of who the scumteam was before I started writing cases. And it led me to the correct conclusion anyway.

[Mathdino]

he didn't have to bus hopkirk and sheep two hours later. if he's scum!n_m, he'd have already pegged me as VI D2 and pocketed me like what I've been baiting scum to do.

Yes he did. Fire was obvtown and so were you and katy.

Rem is not a difficult mislynch. NOTICE THAT N_M TRIES TO LYNCH REM FIRST INSTEAD OF SHEEP. BEFORE REM GOT THE REPLACEMENT.

Sounds like WHAT YOU'RE DOING EXACTLY RIGHT NOW

Missing the point again.

You're arguing that I'm not lynching confscum and instead am lynching you. And that makes me scum.

Except you literally tried to mislynch my slot before I got a replace-in when sheep was there on a silver fucking platter.

Edit: Flash lynch N_M so we don't have to gruel through this shit again tomorrow.

I lynch non-conf-scum no matter what. But going by your argument, the town move from your perspective is to lynch sheep.

So it's pretty hilarious that you tried to push through a lynch on Rem instead.

Plus that was an argument to HEM that you weren't really bussing in the first place.

[Mathdino]

Town Dino doesn't attempt to justify his play to me, he just laughs at me and talks about policy lynches

It's almost like you're cherry picking from:

Marked for death: I didn't survive to LyLo and I wanted to solve your alignment based on other people's flips first.

Switch: Literally had confscum so who gives a shit about trying to read you.

Chill Mafia: Never made it to 5p LyLo with you, and by endgame it was pretty obvious UCV was scum over you.

You've never attacked my play on that point before. So yeah this is important to me.

[Mathdino]

SHEEP IS GOING TO SELF HAMMER UNVOTE NOW

[Mathdino]

SHEEP IS WILLING TO VOTE LITERALLY ANYONE AS IT STANDS

[Mathdino]

oh right sorry

anyway the memes of taking sheep to 3p are also my

weakest

strongest argument for keeping him alive

Edit: I do. It's a discredit that I'm preemptively defending.

Like you're talking to me about why I'm engaging you when you're also engaging me. I'm not saying you're scum for that, but I'm willing to address potential discredits of my play before they turn into commonly held sentiments.

[Mathdino]

That particular discredit is something I think N_M would make against me postgame anyway so I got a bit tilted tbh.

[Mathdino]

I like N_M a lot outside of mafia. Probably one of the funniest people on the site besides obviously Reck. Inside the game he pisses me off and I'll try to policy lynch him every time (unless it's LyLo or unless I have actual scumspects).

Katy I told you straight up you're probably not gonna be able to read people based off LyLo behaviour.

But you keep cycling back to LyLo behaviour as your argument.

I'm not even using N_M's "I COULD BE SCUM WITH FIRE" bullshit as a scumclaim. Like, he's wrong, and I'll prove he's wrong, but no matter what his POV is that he has to discredit me to survive.

Similarly, I have to come up with a scumteam that doesn't involve me. I lucked out in that the correct scumteam has more evidence going for it in D1/D2 than a scumteam involving my slot.

I haven't seen you or HEM once address why I'm scum based on the entire game rather than this 1v1 that N_M and I are both forced to carry out.

[Mathdino]

It's weird how much I get into grudge matches with people solely during the game of mafia itself.

Like even when I'm town it's like just playing the game creates a whole different persona for me. I constantly get pissed off at my IRL friends during mafia and but then the game ends and it's like all of it washes away.

Glad I don't have any actual grudge matches on the site tbh.

Edit: Go find the quotes and I'll come up with "excuses, excuses"
Associatives might be more useful to you if a slot is basically a non-presence. N_M is in general a non-presence, which is why I try to solve his slot via associatives.

[Mathdino]

The fact that Rem ended up 100% lurking out should be indication that her lurking and total unawareness of the gamestate was NAI at worst and very very slightly town indicative at best (I see town lurk out much more than I see scum do it). Bad reads doesn't imply scum motivation.

Edit: kthx katy one sec

[Mathdino]

Having checked Hop's ISO it seems like he largely groups Rem and N_M into the same pile/bin. I did see that already. It's objectively hard to pick the slots apart from Hop alone IMO.

[Mathdino]

Taking a potshot and just gonna say that N_M helped scum wincon more than Rem did *shrug*

It's pretty standard from what I see of scum-N_M tbh.

[Mathdino]

Rem has been an empty slot all game. It's hard to come up with a read one way or another - we're relying entirely on n_m here who, if scum, played a relatively townie game early on but it's still possible to sell it as scum.

D1 she pushed a pretty reasonable case on Intern as the "active lurker following town consensus" and even compared it to n_m's iso which she thought was transparently town. After intern's claim though she kind of died down and had weird reads. No update D2 or D3.

I guess you could argue that sheep's interaction calling it a "really genuine entrance" means something but i think that was more following consensus

Idk man you're still buying into this "correct reads = town and bad reads = scum". Like, glad it helps my slot, but Hopkirk has had reasonably accurate reads in that he's been going after sheep all game and he's scum so.

I do think sheep's interaction there means something. Not a lot, but nonzero meaning. Go read my 4 cases. There's a difference in how sheep treats Hopkirk and Not_Mafia compared to everybody else. He never makes an attempt to read the two of them. His one or two attempts to read my total lurksack slot are actually pretty telling in comparison.

[Mathdino]

sheep doesn't self-hammer as a mafia PR IMO. He's probably a goon.

[Mathdino]

Taking a potshot and just gonna say that N_M helped scum wincon more than Rem did *shrug*

It's pretty standard from what I see of scum-N_M tbh.

Why is that a potshot if I'm scum?

It's just one of those things that is pretty obvious from my point of view and thus doesn't really hold THAT much sway given that my job is noticing all the reasons you're scum.

Still works tho. You pushed town significantly more than I expect of town-you.

But like. I have to say that anyway as either alignment.

LyLo is useless tbh

Edit: You and Rem were similarly not playing, N_M. sheep chose to come up with reasons for townreading Rem, he chose to have a trajectory on her slot. He had 0 trajectory on yours.

[Mathdino]

sheep-scum is significantly better at defending town than he is at defending scum. He's confbiased by knowing people are town already.

With townreading his scumbuddies he finds it harder to come up with reasons I think. But he doesn't wanna full-on bus so he kinda just ignores having to read them.

[Mathdino]

What I mean is that from sheep's standpoint Rem and N_M were similarly practically unreadable. N_M doesn't play the game like most people so he ends up being this weird unreadable slot that people assume just does random shit at random times.

sheep could've come up with explicit reasons for why he sorted N_M the way he did. But he didn't. He did the exact same thing with Hopkirk.

On the other hand, Rem makes like a few posts and sheep actually has reasoning to sort that slot.

[Mathdino]

this game is hard!

Don't choose my side for my winning personality

Seriously though. If you start townreading me based on effort and making sense in LyLo that's just gonna go underwater when you realise I can (to some extent) pull that off as scum too.

My argument has more evidence because it's right. I knew that from before I caught up that there would be a correct scumteam and the evidence just needed to be found.

So read the evidence, don't try to parse a LyLo 1v1. That goes for all LyLos. There's just significantly more for N_M-scum.

Disclaimer: Like I said had Rem not replaced out I, as a spectator, would be scumreading her pretty strongly at this point. Before the replace-out I admit there was more evidence for Rem-scum on lurking alone. But now that's all NAI.

[Mathdino]

Notice also that Not_Mafia's entire argument is based on me being scum post-replace-in. He doesn't have an argument for this slot being scum prior to that.

Which makes it really rich that he tried to mislynch the slot before a replace-in came and ruined the party, despite going on about how y'all should lynch confscum first.

[Mathdino]

I'm really gonna look like a jackass if N_M was town the whole time lol

But if that were the case, it just rewards really good play on the part of Fire and Flubber and sheep (is Flubber conftown yet?) so I guess I'm cool with that. Lose sooner rather than later.

[Mathdino]

N_M is ALWAYS tonally town dude.

Again, look at the evidence. Prove me wrong. But tonereading LyLos is straight up not going to work.

I don't have a 100% LyLo town winrate for nothing . Would've made so many bad decisions if I chose to toneread shit.

[Mathdino]

yeah but we're talking about rem slot. rem slot d1 and d2 was scum to me.

You have 1 confirmed scum and 1 basically-confirmed-scum to go off of now.

Your reads independently of flips don't have a great track record.

Reevaluate through the lens of the larger amount of info you have.

Edit: That doesn't mean I think it's right to try to read me when I'm forced to choose this trajectory.
Or that I think it's right to read a lurksack slot off tone tbh.

[Mathdino]

btw just pointing out that there's no fucking way scum have daytalk

sheep and hopkirk moving their votes around rather than waiting for the quickhammer opportunity heavily implies that

no daytalk implies that town's all out of PRs cuz balance

[Mathdino]

lol i randomly decided to ISO a scum NK and found this

Rem probtown

This is wrong though

Intern is just scum here, he hasn't really done anything substantial outside vote popular wagons and call an arbitrary pool of low posters scum

. He's just using the game state to coast and that's the vibe I strongly get while I read his posts.

Not in the sense that I've been useful but when I voted Buj he wasnt a popular wagon, I'm pretty sure I was the first one on it

Can someone townreading n_m tell me why since a decent chunk of you seem to

I cant read him to save my life

i swear guys, this case writes itself

[Mathdino]

ok but if it is n_m firebringer isn't ever dying which means that we have to rely on scum bussing or convince him now

Exactly why I want to lynch N_M. I don't want to deal with Firebringer's tunnel tomorrow when
A. One of you is gonna be down
and
B. Hopkirk is no longer gonna be willing to bus if it loses the game.

We'll be deadlocked tomorrow. We have the votes to lynch N_M literally now.

Like, you assume I'm choosing not to speedlynch sheep because I'm being cautious or wanting more discussion or some shit.

I'm fine playing reckless as long as it solves the rest of the game.

So yeah I'd really prefer N_M lynched before I go to sleep and before Fire wakes up. By that time scum won't be bussing anymore.

[Mathdino]

We're not getting Flubber's vote since his philosophy is pretty clearly set on lynching confscum. Have played with him before. I don't expect him to switch. Or really read any of this.

[Mathdino]

I feel like any comment I make right now is just gonna generate more paranoia so I will leave this post here as a "I am still here but I am not commenting because there's nothing substantial to say"

[Mathdino]

UC/Flubber/Sephiroth/INtercinfoanwrgaergn

ucv isnt a good wagon rn, agreeing entirely with kat that the "inconsistency" isnt rlly actual inconsistency
seph i liked his reaction to some pressure
inter is nullish
flubber is a wagon im fine with atm

i mean not to mention this is overt scum-scum interaction on sheep's part

no daytalk scumteam, this shit belongs in the PT

[Mathdino]

pedit: is that supposed to be a point in scum!n_m's favor

I mean yeah. Using me wanting to lynch him against me when he tried to get me lynched instead of sheep is pretty clearly a point for scum!N_M. I'm just not pressuring that point over all else because Cardinal Rule of LyLo. I have enough evidence that I don't NEED to use LyLo shit.

[Mathdino]

i'll help

[Mathdino]

katyusha hammers are legendary

[Mathdino]

you guys aren't helping

[Mathdino]

yeah we're still shooting for the stars here

[Mathdino]

these posts get low low low low low low low low

[Mathdino]

i'm literally going to stay up until the hammer
i'm going to assume we lose if fire/flubber control town and give sheep/hopkirk the chance to unvote and hammer sheep instead

[Mathdino]

why am i this concerned about sheep and hopkirk speedlynching sheep if doing so basically loses the game for scum-me

[Mathdino]

it's literally 8p lylo and you're deciding

that shit is always anxious

L-1 post saved for you HEM

[Mathdino]

it's literally not a hammer anyway dude

stop reading based off lylo moves

i'm 90% sure we lose if N_M doesn't get lynched today

and he won't get lynched today if sheep/hopkirk lynch sheep instead

so this needs to happen before they wake up

[Mathdino]

HEM you're basically always going to toneread me as scum

calling me manipulative is a common sentiment, i hit people over the head with logic and i'm out for blood when i'm 100% sure

because i've never been wrong when i'm 100% sure

but you need to explain the scum motivation in getting N_M speedlynched now specifically to avoid sheep getting lynched

again, why am i avoiding sheep's lynch as scum

and if avoiding sheep's lynch is the right call,

why am i worried sheep will self hammer

[Mathdino]

We don't have days. Fire and Flubber don't switch sides. We have 2 scum bussing right now and that's literally not going to happen again.

[Mathdino]

spam spam spam

[Mathdino]

spam spam

[Mathdino]

spam

[Mathdino]

and lol at the idea of me convincing firebringer after trying to get him removed from the game

[Mathdino]

katyusha i hope you're ready

[Mathdino]

M O N K E Y I S L A U G H A B L Y B A D A T T H I S G A M E

i lol'd

this was a good meme

[Mathdino]

i have never not lol'd my ass off at your hammers honestly

it's what i associated you with before figuring out you were giga

[Mathdino]

don't troll lol

it's too early

the game goes on

you're probably gonna die so we need to talk about hopkirk vs firebringer vs flubbernugget before NSG locks i think

[Mathdino]

Remind me why we're so intensely sure Hopkirk is scum? Like independent of my associations with sheep.

[Mathdino]

Hopkirk's argument wasn't totally shit. Relying on sheep/Fire/N_M trollteam openwolfing.

I just want to be sure for tomorrow.

Edit: I don't troll like this dude.

[Mathdino]

Like I wouldn't try to bait you into continuing to discuss scumteams for tomorrow if I'd won the game already. Just extra work for both of us.

Explain why Flubber is always town?

[Mathdino]

Honestly Hopkirk was the least sure one. I knew it was exactly one in Hopkirk/Flubber but to survive I had to lynch the 3rd scum first.

edit: dude plz

[Mathdino]

Firebringer proven not MVP townie

that's really all i wanted out of this game tbh

gj firebringer

Edit: Hop isn't openwolfing, he's doing what he's forced to do. I agree PoEing yourself out of sensible scumteams is a scumtell, but...
yeah okay I'll read your case.

[Mathdino]

I don't know if I'm confirmed town yet, haven't paid enough attention to the VCs to figure that out. I don't THINK I'm 100% confirmed so I'd rather not troll until the twilight before 3p.

Edit: mfw you literally don't want to talk about this
ok fine

[Mathdino]

NSG's asleep I think. Sorry.

Til then: Firebringer assuming N_M flips scum are you convinced I'm town yet? Because you voting me tomorrow loses the game still.

[Mathdino]

You're seriously still fucking tunneling me?

You realise I was antagonising you specifically because of rulebreaking?

Edit: no i'm fucking not scum i'm trying to solve tomorrow ahead of time

[Mathdino]

HEY IF ANY DEAD PEOPLE KNOW NOT_MAFIA IS TOWN AND THAT TOWN JUST LOST, PLEASE SPEAK UP NOW SINCE THE GAME IS OVER

[Mathdino]

Firebringer I haven't antagonised you outside of any ongoing games.

If you seriously still wanna lynch me for that I really don't know what to tell you. I hope sheep busses tomorrow because we're gonna do the same thing again.

[Mathdino]

like you guys do realise we still lose if i've failed to convince firebringer i'm town here

sheep doesn't bus tomorrow

[Mathdino]

i actually used to DM 5e for a while, i'd be pretty fucking down

[Mathdino]

Firebringer I haven't antagonised you outside of any ongoing games.

If you seriously still wanna lynch me for that I really don't know what to tell you. I hope sheep busses tomorrow because we're gonna do the same thing again.

I never wanted to lynch u for that

And do you not see the hypocrisy in what you say?

Then figure out wtf you wanted to lynch me for.

People are literally incapable of tonereading me correctly. There are ways to read me but that's not it.

[Mathdino]

okay great thanks

gg

we're taking sheep to 3p i can't fucking wait

YOU'RE WELCOME DEAD TOWNIES

FOR I HATH AVENGED YE

[Mathdino]

my work here's done then

@Mod/scum: Can you please offer an accelerated night? I think we're all ready for this to be over.

who's organising dnd?

[Mathdino]

not to say i ignored dino's posts per say, but like

i didnt take them into account when deciding today. i kept them in mind it's just i want my own reads to persuade myself

this is how to properly lylo, HEM

i mean it's not necessarily always how i lylo

but i can't gambit in lylo if i'm the one on the stand

[Mathdino]

so did no one here read my cases :'(

[Mathdino]

eh they were significantly more useful to myself than anyone else

i'm really glad the cases led me to hopkirk scum

if i came out of that arguing it was flubber/fire i'm pretty sure you guys would've lynched me on the spot

[Mathdino]

@HEM: That's pretty fair. Replacing into LyLo really sucks honestly. Sad I didn't get here before the Seph lynch cuz I'd have busted both your balls for that.

Hey FB is cool with you if I join? Is k if not. Sorry about hardballing earlier.

Edit: oh shit lol it's been too long since i've dm'd
i have this whole universe but i think i left the papers for that in another state

[Mathdino]

We could just get on Discord and fuck around playing Roll to Dodge

[Mathdino]

lol you're probably entirely right FB.

It's kinda like improv acting to me. Feels bad when the game ends and I realise that a lot of people don't see it that same way.

But it being a social game I'm for the most part willing to do what I think I have to.

To an extent; there are limits to dickishness

Edit: pls elaborate on bad shit
because from my perspective you kinda admitted to bringing up ongoing games to fuck with me

[Mathdino]

how the fuck did you hammer scum and actually think we still lost

like i'm hoping you voted N_M cuz you legit agreed he was scum xD

[Mathdino]

lol i woke up from a nap at like midnight and saw you were online and i was like HOLY SHIT NEED TO GET HER VOTE BEFORE SHEEP/HOPKIRK GET OFF THE WAGON

[Mathdino]

idk guys in your position i'd like to think i'd be a lot more sure than you guys are

cuz evidence is obvious and shit

but then again i don't think i've ever decided a close lylo

[Mathdino]

but like

we're still lynching the less likely scum first right?

cuz sheep in 3p is lolworthy

you guys are gonna fucking hate me when i no lynch on d5 instead of lynching sheep

[Mathdino]

because the fact that i just said it means sheep is of course going to keep me alive so he can troll longer

[Mathdino]

meh d1 cases are unconvincing sorry

i'm sticking with my "why the fuck did sheep never give a shit about sorting hopkirk" case

[Mathdino]

yeah well that's generally what happens when you lynch ML bait UCV and lynch a screaming guy for AtE

i'm honestly glad my scumgame ended because it'd look pretty fucking weird chewing you out here for lynching UCV when he played exactly the same way in my scumgame (yet I was still trying to lynch him)

Edit: go to bed kids the game's not over
i almost think you guys WANT this game to have ended now