Mini 2017: Encore Mafia - Now Without Cults [Endgame]

[implosion]

Also, since this is probably a PR heavy game, I'd like to request that no one crumb their role, scum will spot it and they WILL kill you for it. Anyone who feels like their role is useless should feel free to drop a fake crumb though if they want to bite a night kill . But of course, don't be so obvious about it that it's too obvious.

This seems moderately scum.

[implosion]

I think BNL's the only one I'm willing to call town so far.

[implosion]

I will also say I'm more than a little worried that mastina's opening looks an awful lot like something she could have planned to do if she got a scum role PM when she /inned for this game, with a specific role that she had planned to fakeclaim in mind.

[implosion]

EP, am I supposed to townread your first post? I'm not sure.

[implosion]

Someone please kick this game into gear i'm bored

[implosion]

Someone please kick this game into gear i'm bored

Sure.
VOTE: implosion.

How's that?

Not good. You did it an hour after I fell asleep.

How so?

Semistandard scumtell for theme games; looks like analysis for the sake of analysis to an extent. Crumbs can easily be done in such a way that they are impossible to detect; making the blanket statement "it can't be beneficial for anyone to crumb" just feels like throwing out information that sounds useful for the sake of throwing it out.

[implosion]

That said,
VOTE: Kokichi Oma

[implosion]

A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush

[implosion]

Counterpoint: BNL is town.

[implosion]

eh mastina's reads aren't bad.

Ep, are you just sheeping me? Either answer will make me happy for different reasons.

[implosion]

Okay.

VOTE: Myloninja

[implosion]

Pine's posting isn't impressing me thus far.

Inclined to lean town on Wisdom though I don't really know what he looks like as scum. Ditto EP but in a very different way and probably stronger than a lean though I reserve the right to 180 here though I probably won't.

Kokichi slightly town at this point, Awoo could be scum, not a massive fan of his flip on Kokichi; it looks sort of staged for the purpose of generating content. 82 is not a good reason to townread Kokichi and it's the only post between Awoo calling Kokichi scum and town.

BNL is still strong town. Myloninja is our Designated Lynch for the day.

[implosion]

are you just saying that cause you're afraid to be wrong on someone you talk to a lot?
Because that's why i'm saying that.

look, all you need to know is that the right has been reserved.

[implosion]

zzzzzzzzzzz

Care to advance the gamestate?

[implosion]

Oh man, maybe we are supposed to wagon mutantdevle here. 138 is pretty bad. Although I don't know why Pine is lying in the first place given that scum are with near-certainty going to be willing to put in enough work to disprove him saying he's never drawn VT.

I agree that I'm having a tough time getting a solid read on myloninja.

[implosion]

keep any eye on BNL for powerscum.

This is probably a townish comment.

[implosion]

One, that you're willing to believe someone with a 2011 join date hasn't ever drawn VT without a shred of skepticism. Makes it seem like you aren't applying critical thought to the things you're reading here.
Two, tone. The exasperation reads forced. Again, if you're town I'd expect you to at least have the thought "maybe Pine has a decent reason to say this."
Three, it sort of presumes that Pine is town in a weird way that again doesn't really make me think you're trying to read his alignment genuinely.

[implosion]

Assume I knew pine was lying, why do you think I made that post?

This seems like a question I have not that much interest in answering.

Implosion, how did you go from Mylo going from Designated Lynch to "hard time getting a solid read on"?

How does anything change from anything to anything else, really~

[implosion]

The real answer is that calling him a Designated Lynch™ was never really especially serious or meaningful.

[implosion]

VOTE: Pine

[implosion]

VOTE: Mastina
I Really feel like wagoning this slot

I really feel like you're being dumb. (Especially since you're one of the few players in this playerlist to have a chance to know what role I possess off of my stance that this is a role which

should

be breadcrumbed. I breadcrumb ALL roles I have--even THIS one. Because no role, not even THIS one, should remain uncrumbed.)

Idk why you're so deeply interested in discussing your role after you've already breadcrumbed it. Like, spouting bullshit softclaims to try to throw off scum is not good town play in this game.

I'm not really sure how to read mastina in general; my only even-slightly-recent meta knowledge of her is from turn of camn and we were both scum and it was not the kind of thing that can be meaningfully extrapolated. Not really interested in pushing her right now though. I might be willing to join the Awoo wagon.

[implosion]

VOTE: Awoo

(L-2)

[implosion]

That said, devle, I want to echo BNL's point - you're acting like we're supposed to be reading you as town here, while simultaneously explaining that you aren't doing any scumhunting. Why exactly are we supposed to think you're town here? And why haven't you done any scumhunting? I'm willing to buy that there's a level of scumminess that you're going to show regardless of alignment, but... you're acting like you showing that scumminess and people seeing it is a reason for people to think that you're town, which is patently absurd.

[implosion]

List of people that I'm willing to call some degree of town so far: BNL, EP, mastina, Kokichi, Wisdom, Pine, mutantdevle, vaguely in that order. This list is easily mostly garbage right now though since I haven't audited it yet.

Nonetheless, leaves Awoo, espe, myloninja, Maragnal, and srceenplay. Doesn't feel great that this list is by and large lurkers but that's basically a good excuse to not audit the list of townreads yet so~

[implosion]

Wisdom, what's your read on Awoo now?

[implosion]

Implosion so how did you get mutantdevle town?

I question this too since you literally just spoke about how you don't see why anyone would be town reading me thus far.

Indignance is a slight towntell I think. Probably one that varies inversely with account join date. But there's a reason you were at the end of the list.

[implosion]

mastina not caring about Awoo's post is interesting. I'm not really sure what to think of it myself.

[implosion]

I disagree with the second paragraph. I agree this is likely to be role madness, but this means crumbs are not as useful for scum as everyone is a role so PR wise it doesn't matter much who they kill.

It may be a little late for this, but considering there are sample VT pms in this game, I doubt it's role madness

Hmmm is this a town post? I think it might be. I don't think scum who tend to be more self-conscious of the things they're posting, perusing the first page of the game, would really feel the need to make this point.

[implosion]

I do also agree with Awoo that on a second read BNL's 80 feels really icky in the throw-something-out-there-for-the-hell-of-it way. Idk if "yeah, maybe" would ever be my genuine reaction to someone saying "the three people voting me are all scum" on d1. Even if I were to read the claim that all three of those people are scum as 100% serious I don't think it's something that I would stop and think "hm, yeah, maybe," it's just something that I'd completely dismiss out of hand because why are people trying to nail the whole scumteam in post 79?

I am interested in

thoughts

on this matter from the masses.

[implosion]

And WRT Awoo, BNL seems like an awfully weird choice for him to make if he is scum looking for a counterwagon. Only vote there was Espeonage who isn't exactly at the front of the game's zeitgeist at the moment, with a decent number of people calling him town. I don't think scum-Awoo would think the wagon has a significant chance of forming, unless it's a really odd bus. If he's scum it was just a move to gain towncred and I don't think that's the move that scum looking for towncred is especially likely to make.

Unvote

VOTE: BNL

[implosion]

And WRT Awoo, BNL seems like an awfully weird choice for him to make if he is scum looking for a counterwagon. Only vote there was Espeonage who isn't exactly at the front of the game's zeitgeist at the moment, with a decent number of people calling him town. I don't think scum-Awoo would think the wagon has a significant chance of forming, unless it's a really odd bus. If he's scum it was just a move to gain towncred and I don't think that's the move that scum looking for towncred is especially likely to make.

Unvote

VOTE: BNL

But you don't scumread me.

How do you know I don't scumread you?
Why would I have to be scumreading you to vote you?

[implosion]

And why are you so skeptical of this jump when you've ignored all of the other reckless wagonhopping I've been doing?

[implosion]

Not a fan of how he joined my wagon

I didn't think your vote on me was scummy,

????????

While talking about this though, why did you vote a lot of your null/scum reads, but you did not vote mutantdevle even though you were clearly thinking that he was scummy?

I am so tempted to reply to this with "the inner machinations of my mind are an enigma."

But the real answer is, no particular reason.

[implosion]

I have very mixed thoughts on Kokichi. My only meta on him is a game where I was modding where he was scum in which I think I had a pretty likely chance of misreading him as town had I been in the game, and this game seems to have no real difference from it. Yet I am also somewhat townreading him independent of that.

[implosion]

My new townset-that-I-feel-pretty-okay-about: {EP, Awoo, mutantdevle, Maragnal}.
The people that I would like to call town right now but give me significant trepidation in doing so are {Wisdom, kokichi, Pine, mastina}.
This leaves a new, 100% improved scumset of {BNL, mylo, the worst, espeonage}.

There are very clearly 3 scum in that set.

[implosion]

Actually, amusingly, literally the entire middle tier can be summed up with "they've done some things this game that I moderately-to-strongly want to townread in a vacuum, but am not sure if the thing they did is actually a towntell for them in particular." Literally all four of them except kind of maybe kokichi which I mentioned above.

BNL is the only one who I currently see things that make me think scummier than neutral from.

[implosion]

Does "don't dig" mean disagree with, dislike, or haven't strongly evaluated yet?

[implosion]

I think my new desire might be a wagon on the worst???

Wrt 80, I said it was not implausible that all 3 scum were voting you because again, experience. I've often seen only-scum wagons on town early game before. Then again, those were micros, so I don't know if the same happens in games of this size.

Awoo, address this please?

Implosion, too.

I mean, this is a logically sound thing to say but it doesn't really address why it's a more sensible thing to do as scum. And if you are thinking of multiple specific games where you've seen this, I actually wouldn't mind links to votecounts from those games because I'm sort of skeptical that this is something that you've seen often enough to establish as a pattern (it's something I can believe but am initially skeptical of).

[implosion]

mastina, @358, aren't you the one who just stressed that effort != alignment?

[implosion]

I am once again being mentioned, so I shall show my face!

Would you like me to answer any questions?

What's your overall opinion of me, right now? You mentioned thinking my calling you a Designated Lynch was vaguely cringe-worthy; can you elaborate?

[implosion]

mastina, @358, aren't you the one who just stressed that effort != alignment?

point?

That she's being inconsistent?

What do you mean? I think the point is pretty obvious.

[implosion]

Specifically she's calling out mylo for not giving much content which is basically the same as not making an effort as far as I'm concerned.

[implosion]

(and also for not making an effort to push his vote, which is, again, just a lack of effort and according to her not necessarily scummy)

[implosion]

worst, you're doing an awful lot of what feels like testing out the waters to see what vote you can get to stick before committing to giving any material reads. You're asking a lot of questions in a lot of different directions and it doesn't feel like you're following up with any of them or listening to any of the answers/adjusting your reads based on them.

Care to dissuade me of this incorrect notion?

[implosion]

like I've been in this game less than 24 hours
you transparently don't know my playstyle

what are you expecting of me?

To respond to my question in as much detail as possible, so that I can get a good feel for your playstyle.

[implosion]

And @mastina that's fair. I was kind of close to voting myloninja but page 13 reads town to me. He's not afraid to make it obvious that he is lurking. He has no shame over it. 313 felt generally gut town, particularly the comment about me, though that's not as strong now that I see he was interpreting it as me calling for a policy lynch.

I don't feel great about my vote on BNL anymore though.

[implosion]

what question?

I'll think abt it

What have you gotten out of the answers to your questions (e.g., your line of questions toward Mylo, )
I had been ISOing you and I now see that your other two questions haven't been answered yet. Alas. But still, that; you asked those questions and didn't mention him again until mastina's post, after which you agreed that he might be scum but mentioned he'd eventually be more readable. Was it his responses to your questions that made you scumread him? Had you already been scumreading him?

Basically, I just want to hear the thought process that has led you to give the opinions you've given so far.

[implosion]

just clarifying first have you read my posts?

i am scared to answer yes to this, so instead, i will say "maybe, have you?"

[implosion]

the answer is "yes, and if i egregiously missed something then i am under no legal obligations or moral imperatives within this jurisdiction under the fullest extent of the law."

[implosion]

man maybe i'll just ignore every post up until post 400 and start from scratch. That sounds nice.

Unvote

[implosion]

Please do ^_^

VOTE: Espeonage

[implosion]

That post is pretty transparent sarcasm.

[implosion]

And, well, if you're gonna use a single person voting you as an excuse to not read the thread, then consider it a real vote.

[implosion]

I disagree with this statement. Some of the questions weren't followed up because they weren't answered in the first place.

Yeah, you'll note me later mentioning that I had been ISOing the worst and just looking at questions he'd asked looking for thing he'd said later about those questions and not seeing those and not realizing that the people had just spontaneously vanished after he'd asked them things.

I also sometimes feel like I have too many townreads, then I realise how many lurkers there are in the game.

Yes.

I do sort of wonder if for me this is always the case though. Large majority of the time that I give an early scumread it is unlikely to remain confident over a long stretch of time.

I don't really feel strongly about the worst's posting so far. To be completely frank my reaction to his long post in response to me was "ugh i really don't feel like trying to find something alignment-indicative from this right now". The large generic mass of town-seeming people makes me feel fine about just calling for a wagon on Espeonage right now. Nothing he's posted gives me townvibes (compare: myloninja). His passive aggressive reaction to my vote just feels... weak. The assumption in 427 that I was voting him solely to get him to do things also just leaves a bad taste because it was not just that. (I'll also note that his calling it a pet peeve is pretty silly, since there are plenty of people who can be made to get off of their asses by some pressure, myself included in many cases). 411 I'm pretty sure is mostly sarcastic and just feels... idk. Especially since the most recent votecount at the time of that post had the biggest wagon be on BNL, implying that he had read the recent parts of the thread enough to know that the wagon was starting to dissipate (at least, he can't have just read my unvote in 400, since I didn't specify who I was unvoting, so he must have read some of the prior pages). This all just makes me think that he is scum who hasn't read the game but has skimmed the past few pages, but doesn't want to have to actually take stances on anything there because the direction of the game is so hard to predict right now (or any number of other reasons) and so is claiming to have just not read anything at all.

[implosion]

Scum scrambling to save BNL's life

So bnl scum is scrambling to save his life

By unvoting the l-1 wagon?????

[implosion]

I still see nothing that gives me any desire to unvote. It's not surprising that a fast wagon sprung up on Espe when a large number of people are acting townish and he is very flagrantly not.

[implosion]

mastina, opinion on Espe? Bad lynch, or just inferior lynch?

[implosion]

I still don't understand how you're calling me a hypocrite?

The first time you mentioned hypocrisy was you mentioning that you had previously mentioned hypocrisy, so I'm assuming you were referring to some other point but I have no idea which one.

[implosion]

the point that i mentioned was clearly sarcastic? The one talking about the thread that I've been very constantly consistently engaging with?

[implosion]

Also, just for clarity,

I'm a vt, much to my chagrin.

A vt from what game?

[implosion]

I could theoretically be convinced to vote Awoo. I'd love to see someone try to convince me to vote BNL. It's also possible but I'm really unconvinced right now.

[implosion]

ill vote whoever other than mara

Is this your MO? I feel like I've typically seen you have pretty concrete scumreads early.

[implosion]

cold, hard logic.

[implosion]

You know like a few days ago I was satisfied with the state of the game, and now basically everyone but BNL is refusing to work with other people.

Can we please like, rectify that. Can you not just say "scum on my wagon is TW and BNL", leave it at that, and then if you're town and get ML'd today presumably complain in postgame about either how scummy TW and/or BNL had been as town or about how none of us were willing to listen to your reasonless accusations if they were scum. Can you like, explain things in a way that might avoid a mislynch if you're town? Pretty please?

[implosion]

At this point I am very uninterested in wagoning either awoo or bnl. I don't buy that anything Awoo is pointing out in 576 is actually scum-indicative.

[implosion]

Posts like 576 look like genuine reasoning to me. I am wavering on it to a degree but I don't think I have much interest in lynching him right now. And as much as I've been describing why I dislike his play right now I don't think it's particularly scummy on face.

[implosion]

I don't think that's a meaningful question because I think Awoo's personality is very clearly very different from mine and that any conclusions I make about how I'd play in his position as scum don't have any applicability to him.

But is there a specific answer you want me to say here?

[implosion]

I don't have any scumreads right now per se except to some degree Espeonage. My townreads that have degraded the most over time are on Wisdom, maybe you, and maaaybe Pine. Still no strong read on the worst, and Myloninja is of course not a strong read. Might be forgetting something in this list.

[implosion]

not loving your reactions to the Awoo wagon Implo.

What about them?

[implosion]

tbh, i'd maybe flashwagon wisdom. My only real concern with it is that we already have so many VT claims. I don't get anything strong out of espe's 494/95.

[implosion]

worst, you mentioned Wisdom as dead null earlier. Has anything changed?

[implosion]

Time for me to make more repetitive comments about how I've yet to be swayed.

[implosion]

I'm sure you would, scum

man this has just got to be satire of the game state, right?

[implosion]

BNL is such a deeply godawful lynch here unless you have an extremely, extremely good scumread on him. The other two wagons are both claimed VTs who have been lurking/refusing to explain things (though Awoo did have some good posts recently). BNL is unclaimed and is actually contributing to the game consistently.

I also think BNL and Awoo are both town. Awoo more strongly at this juncture. Even then I'd rather compromise on Awoo than on BNL. But I really, really don't understand why anyone wouldn't be willing to compromise on Espeonage (if they wind up having to compromise).

[implosion]

Wisdom is a good check.

[implosion]

I also personally think Awoo is semi-obvtown here.

[implosion]

im am actually 100% down for copping myself.

but also - consider pine. seriously.

Like this is a really town post. I don't think scum-Awoo makes this post in this way, asking to be copped but also pushing another solid target forward. I think Awoo's been making a lot more townish posts lately in general.

[implosion]

That said. I do not fucking understand how we can have TWO WAGONS at FIVE VOTES on CLAIMED VANILLAS that have been lurking and decide we need to wagon someone else at deadline.

[implosion]

Because it's bad fucking play on day one.

[implosion]

We have two people that people are in general reasonably happy to lynch, and we decide to "compromise" on fucking BNL of all people. I don't understand it in the slightest.

[implosion]

We all get no info from my lynch

This is and has always been a terrible horrible excuse of a reason to not lynch lurkers.

[implosion]

kokichi, mylo, implosion

wild d1 scumteam guess

VOTE: bnl

If this is your scumteam guess, why do you hop on BNL, who hasn't claimed and is at L-5, and not Awoo, who is at L-2 with literally 5 people you're calling town voting him? I can think of reasons but none of them seem good.

[implosion]

What's your read on BNL?

[implosion]

And if you can, though I know how loathe you are to, can you explain where your read on me is coming from? The only point of reference you have afaik is dedede, and I feel like my play here is pretty starkly different from that game.

[implosion]

What's your read on BNL?

Why does this even matter?

Honestly, because I think BNL is obvtown to an extent too and it's surprising to me how many people are willing to vote that way and that Awoo is sufficiently farther obvtown than he is that he's willing to vote there and force a claim. To me the wagon on BNL just looks blatantly anti-town. I don't know if it was necessarily scum driven, though.

[implosion]

It's like, I can sort of understand scumreading BNL at this point. It's just very surprising to me that there are six people that are willing to lynch him over claimed-vt-acting-useless espeonage, regardless of their reads on espeonage.

[implosion]

I'm also incredibly, incredibly skeptical that Wisdom thinks he's going to be "dead by d3" assuming he means he thinks he'll be NK'd. He's a somewhat-stereotypical spamposter who is median post count in a not-especially-fast game. That in and of itself is IMO plenty of reason to not think that you're going to get NKed unless you're so full of yourself that you think you're the only one whose reads are right and well yeah.

I'm very skeptical of his read on me, which just looks like flat OMGUS. If I recall correctly, Wisdom is somewhat known for OMGUS/scumreading people who scumread him. But literally the first time that he mentioned my name was shortly after I'd mentioned that my townread on him had degraded and that I'd be willing to flashwagon him. And all that fairly shortly after he'd happily sheeped me onto espeonage. And sure, reads change. But him scumreading me at that point in time just doesn't sit right.

The initial reason his townread had degraded was the drop in activity; I remember town Wisdom as constantly applying pressure. In dedede, it sucked to play against him when he was scumreading me because I couldn't catch a break. But here he's applying pressure so... haphazardly. He throws out a scumteam guess then pressures none of them. He implicitly decries the main wagons and doesn't fight them at all.

[implosion]

who the fuck cares about claims
Ill always lynch an unclaimed scummy over a likely town vt

And here, Kokichi, is exactly why I asked him what his read on BNL was...

How many people are in your scumreads list? BNL is scummy, you called the scumteam as 3 people who weren't him.

[implosion]

Huh.

I was probably going to lead the day with a vote on him. Wonder if he crumbed.

[implosion]

Although he could have just gotten shot.

[implosion]

I mean... I didn't say I think he was? I said he could be. And he was the only death as a weak doctor. That means either he was shot, or he targeted scum AND another protective role blocked a kill, since he couldn't have stopped a kill if he targeted scum.

[implosion]

VOTE: Pine

[implosion]

Why Pine indeed.

Vaguely,

Townpile: {Awoo, EP-but-I-could-be-getting-swindled, mastina-I-think, maragnal, BNL}
Mehpile: {Kokichi, devle, mylo}
Scumpile: {Pine, the worst}

Lots of people I'm excited to hear more from.

[implosion]

In particular:

Pine, I'm interested to hear on what you think about some people that aren't Awoo in light of Espeonage's flip.

the worst, I'm interested to hear you take some hard stances. What made you decide to L-1 BNL instead of joining the Espeonage wagon earlier? You mentioned contemplating an Espeonage vote, then didn't really explain your reasoning but wound up calling Awoo town and L-1ing BNL instead.

Mylo, ditto - care to take some harder stances? 641 is an excellent start.

mastina, do you still think Awoo is scum?

[implosion]

It's possible scum shot Wisdom for what I now see was a softclaim.

In the game he got the role from he breadcrumbed his shot with the word "weak", so it's not unlikely he breadcrumbed it somewhere here. Not necessarily worth searching hard for though since he could have been just directly shot. It's possible 722 is crumbing that he'd target mastina or Pine but that's not how you'd crumb as a weak doctor.

That said there's also a very solid possibility that he just targeted BNL.

[implosion]

they are not strongly town but have done some things I consider town.

Maybe kokichi should be in the scumpile, idk.

[implosion]

Why should I think you can't be?

[implosion]

they are not strongly town but have done some things I consider town.

Maybe kokichi should be in the scumpile, idk.

elaborate on this

You answer mine and I'll answer yours.

[implosion]

Either way he died, it makes me want to suspect Implosion more.

I agree him getting shot is odd from my perspective; however, play as a weak doctor is NEVER to target your scumreads. You always target townreads. This is common sense and is what he did in the other game he had this role (he crumbed it by calling his target town, and saying his read on them was weak).

@Implosion
Why is Pine scum and not null?

Those piles are relative. The bottom set is really "I haven't seen anything that makes me think town." As mentioned yesterday Espeonage (and Wisdom) were the only people who had me actively thinking scummy.

[implosion]

Also, I'm a little confused. Some of you say wisdom probably protected BNL, why do you think he would protect who he's voting? Do you think he'd use his ability to scum hunt rather than town protect?

Because BNL claimed a powerful PR.

[implosion]

Care to share with the class? Or waiting for something?

[implosion]

VOTE: pine ISO this guy for a laugh. Pushes on town the whole day, avoids the mafia. Contributes nothing.

Wow, butthurt much? I

always

usually lurk D1 because my D1 reads are usually crap.

Hint: the only people with perfect reads are the informed minority, aka scum.

This is a rather poor argument against voting you.

[implosion]

I could probably do kokichi without much swaying, or mylo with some swaying.

[implosion]

Hello. What's up?

[implosion]

Thinking about it regardless of the context this vote is probably a pretty good reason to cement EP as town. Really doubt EP scum who has me pocketed votes me.

[implosion]

Awesome. Waiting to hear from Kokichi now.

[implosion]

And @worst: have you ever been a mafia tracker, mafia watcher, etc (any role that could have done this investigation, assuming Kokichi corroborates that he targeted Wisdom)?

[implosion]

ohhhh yeah i forgot you replaced him. Cool.

[implosion]

Yeah I saw. Sort of a shame but I think you're town at this point regardless so.

[implosion]

It is very mechanically amusing that if srceen has been a mafia 1-shot tracker but no other relevant role, you could near-confirm yourself as town by getting two confirmed tracks.

[implosion]

Great. So we can lynch kokichi and he can venge someone if town? He can announce the venge target in advance and we can get a claim and stipulate they be on the wagon.

This is already a

lot

of town power claimed between full tracker, 2-shot weak doc, BNL's role and vengeful modified babysitter.

[implosion]

Also I change my mind about Pine. He's probably a bad lynch.

Any reason for this?
Or for the vote on me?

I generally agree that Koki is probably fakeclaiming but to not lynch him today anwyay.

EP, still want to hear some substance from you as well.

[implosion]

With this much suspicion on me and so much power claimed (and me at L-1) I'm just going to claim. And we should probably just massclaim, frankly.

I'm a backup vigilante. Which I increasingly am thinking doesn't have a real vigilante to accompany it, unless that vigilante shot Wisdom and Wisdom blocked a kill. I presumably won't inherit from BNL's role since he isn't actually a vigilante. But I still didn't really disbelieve his claim. This is part of why I commented on there being so much town power earlier, since a straightforward reading of my role implies that there's another strong town power role. I breadcrumbed on day one, as well:

VOTE: Mastina
I Really feel like wagoning this slot

I really feel like you're being dumb. (Especially since you're one of the few players in this playerlist to have a chance to know what role I possess off of my stance that this is a role which

should

be breadcrumbed. I breadcrumb ALL roles I have--even THIS one. Because no role, not even THIS one, should remain uncrumbed.)

Idk why you're so deeply interested in discussing your role after you've already breadcrumbed it.

Like, spouting bullshit softclaims to try to throw off scum is not good town play in this game.

I'm not really sure how to read mastina in general; my only even-slightly-recent meta knowledge of her is from turn of camn and we were both scum and it was not the kind of thing that can be meaningfully extrapolated. Not really interested in pushing her right now though. I might be willing to join the Awoo wagon.

I picked this post to crumb because mastina was talking about her softclaim, so it would be appropriate.
From the game I got this role originally:

Like, spouting bullshit softclaims to try to throw off scum is not town play in this situation.

I slightly paraphrased it so that it wouldn't be calling mastina scum, but.

[implosion]

I'd assume not, though we can ask.

[implosion]

Do clarify.

[implosion]

The crumb is that it's a distinctive sentence that was nearly copy-pasted from the game that I got my role from.

It's not a crumb that would work in any game other than this one.

[implosion]

The last time that I got a tracker guilty that I was sure was on scum it was actually on town <_>

It does happen.

Incidentally I was a bit afraid that you were a gunsmith and had a guilty on me.

[implosion]

I mean not especially. And I do think Koki is probably scum. But there's also the whole BNL has marked him for death thing.

[implosion]

i'm very bored/perplexed at this game right now and want something to happen and don't know what it is that i want to happen.

[implosion]

Still don't understand why people are afraid of touching Pine.
Even if they are convinced he's town for reasons I'm not seeing, I don't understand why people are letting him get away with what his ISO looks like so far today.

[implosion]

Why do you suppose, exactly, that implosion with his life in danger didn't vote Kokichi?

Because I assumed I'd be fairly townread, and possibly even pseudo-confirmed by a vig claim, after outing my breadcrumb.
Why would I, as scum with Kokichi, care at all if he's getting lynched today? He's dead tonight anyway. I'd happily bus. If I were scum I'd be much more loath to actively avoid the wagon if Kokichi were town because I'd be afraid of getting venged.

That all said, I'm not really sure why I am so loath to avoid the wagon in the first place. It's out of a sense of feeling like it's the wrong thing to do from the standpoint of optimality, since even though I think BNL is somewhat largely clearly town, it is still best to give him the opportunity to become confirmedly so in a game where he could theoretically be mislynched later if he is town and isn't given that chance.

In fact, that'd be all the more reason for me to want to bus Kokichi if we were both scum.

Yeah, no. That would be massively, MASSIVELY anti-town at this point given that I know who the fourth investigative claim is and I would prefer it if as few options as possible were outed for it.

Okay. So from your point of view with knowledge I don't have, it's anti-town. Great. Why is this a point in favor of calling me scum?

Those aren't awful reasons but the conclusion is wrong.

[implosion]

I don't think scum have been given fakeclaims:

Other slight modifications to Role PMs may include: linking to the game the role PM was originally from, removal of fakeclaims, references to mechanics specific to an inapplicable game theme, and edits for clarification.

Doesn't mention any addition of fakeclaims. And I don't see why they'd be given fakeclaims in a game where they can literally pick and choose one from their entire history of games.

[implosion]

Bonus points: that crumb is so incredibly subtle that if implosion were to so choose, he could just fakeclaim VT from any game of his choice should he have later chosen to not go through with the claim for whatever reason. (It happens. Just because you plan on claiming one role, doesn't mean you're committed to claiming that role; you can always change what your planned claim is later if need be, even if the change is simply a change from PR to VT.)

Also, I have a history of giving ridiculously impossible-to-find breadcrumbs as town. Can show and tell if desired.

[implosion]

Frankly I thought what my breadcrumb was going to be criticized for is that I could conceivably have breadcrumbed a bunch more roles in a similar way but they'd be hard to find, which is why I did it in the post quoting where mastina was talking about her own breadcrumb.

[implosion]

(it's also still possible that there is a vig out there who can pseudo-confirm me, and if I am brought to l-1 i'd request they claim if they exist)

[implosion]

I'd also argue Espeonage and my play should be pretty clearly not scum-scum. In both directions.

[implosion]

Because then you have to deal with BulletNLynchproof as conftown,

...what? lynching Kokichi today is the way to STOP bnl from getting a chance to become conftown. This literally is an argument in the opposite direction of what you're arguing. The other points are sort of valid, but irrelevant. There's plenty of reason for me to play it in either direction as town or as scum.

the worst as conftown whose track conftowns players, and an unknown third investigative somewhere in the midst

I still don't understand why there's this mysterious third investigative. Or why I would know they exist as scum and would therefore be playing around them. I have no idea how you're getting at this mysterious theoretical line of thinking that I must be having.

Because scum want to know the roles of players so that they can salvage what is otherwise an unwinnable game for them.

I have a long history of advocating for massclaim fairly early. I asked for it in team mafia. Here's another great example.

I disagree that massclaim is anti-town here given what I know, though it could be given what you do.

When scum is given a bad hand, it's generally best for town to eliminate variables. Massclaim is an excellent way to do that; it allows the mass of remaining town PRs to coordinate their actions effectively, and systematically eliminate people from the unconfirmed/likely scum pool.

[implosion]

I'll also point out for anyone interested in deep diving me that I have a very rich wealth of recent scumgames to look into. I drew scum my past 4 games in a row. Every game I've played since team mafia (maybe except one, idr).

[implosion]

Alright. Let's play then.

This RVSesque vote on a scumbuddy is practically a signature move of implosion as scum. Early distance, which can be turned into a bus if need be but also removed and reversed into a townread as is convenient.

This is made-up bullshit.

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=75794
viewtopic.php?f=83&t=75509
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=75388
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=75603

Here are my four recent scumgames. All from 3-4 months ago. In 3/4 of them, I voted town with my first vote. One of them I literally never voted scum d1 despite 4/9 players in the game being scum. In one of them I was scum *WITH MASTINA* and *LITERALLY* did not vote scum once in the game. And before she says that game doesn't count, I was playing it damn seriously until Elli gave his reads list.

Actually, now that I look at it. Those three games where I voted town with my first vote?

I literally didn't vote for a scumbuddy in ANY of them.

At ANY point in the game. Ever. The one game where I did vote a scumbuddy (floral mafia) I committed to a scumread on her early off of the vote.

mastina is making shit up about my meta.

Her saying "this is the opposite of the read implosion should have had on Kokichi at this point in the game" is also bullshit. Different people read things differently.

implosion's read on Kokichi Oma seems to be directly reflected in the thread sentiment regarding Kokichi Oma.

There's a reason for this. Like I said, I don't have much confidence in reading him, because in the mini theme I ran a month ago with him as scum I thought his play looked fairly town; ergo I don't trust my ability to judge his play, and have been somewhat deferring to thread sentiment.

Note that this was prior to BNL claiming the vig on Kokichi Oma but was after Kokichi's claim--and yet, implosion didn't vote Kokichi Oma.

Why didn't he back up his words with a vote?

This is actually inane.

I didn't instantly vote for a ton of reasons. His claimed role can only shoot someone on the wagon, and I don't want him getting quicklynched with only people he doesn't want to shoot if he's town. I don't want him having the ability to selfhammer as scum.

This question is actually ridiculous, and you should be able to see those answers without asking it.

And by here, he's showing an outright refusal to vote there.

AGAIN.
I have made it very fucking clear that I think the better move is having BNL shoot him.
And you're literally ignoring my having said that.

[implosion]

BulletNLynchproof is conftown regardless of lynching Kokichi Oma today or not. Nobody's going to lynch him in the game, ever, regardless of whether his role is proven or not, because he claimed a provable role. Something scum would not be inclined to do. LEAST of all, in a game featuring this particular mechanic, the Encore nature of it leading to players being easily able to verify aspects of the claim.

Also bullshit.

BNL has claimed a provable role. The situation that allows his role to be proven is by not lynching Kokichi today. It not being proven

means that it is not proven.

If we try to prove it, it might fail; if we don't try to prove it, he can always be scum who wouldn't have actually proven it, and would have claimed blocked. I don't suspect him even if that happens, but he is not proven until he is proven.

You know they exist because I, a town player, am telling you they exist.

You also told me awoo was scum

[implosion]

and you telling me now that a third investigative exists
does not mean that i knew it existed when i was advocating massclaim
and it's absurd that you're pretending that i knew you'd said it already then

[implosion]

there are pieces of your me+kokichi case that have merit; I agree that a number of our interactions look decently scum-scum without the context of knowing that I'm town.

But 1, Espeonage, the *actually flipped scum*, looks nothing like that and you're kidding yourself if you think it does; and 2, every game will have some awkward town-X interactions like that. And this happens to be one of those, and I should be fairly clearly town from my interactions with espeonage and my meta.

[implosion]

And before you say "oh, but it's implosion's scum meta to hard-bus!"

no, it isn't. The only one of my four recent scumgames where I bussed AT ALL I literally only did because one of my partners hard-tunneled me and refused to let go of it. I transitioned my early scumread onto my other partner in that game into a middling read.

I as scum in this game would have zero motivation whatsoever to champion the espeonage lynch when there was an ENORMOUS wealth of mislynches available.

[implosion]

Yes, this would be what I am referring to.

So.
Meta, based off of one game of mine, ignoring several others, is now a signature move of mine as scum.

???????????????????????????

That's very much not enough to be indicative of me being scum. In the slightest. I'm sure I can show you plenty of town games of mine where I happened to pseudo-RVS scum. I will say the pseudo-RVS thing is sort of a signature of mine in that I do it a lot... as both alignments.

Would you ever lynch a player who claimed a provable role D1 as scum in this game, featuring this mechanic?

I sure as fuck wouldn't.

Absolutely, with his kind of role. It's absolutely a gambit scum could make to claim a role like his that's confirmable, and then do any of (1) claim roleblocked, (2) claim to have targeted the person who was nightkilled, (3) claim to have used a cop shot instead of a vig shot, (4) push for a lynch on the person they targeted with claiming roleblocked as a backup plan, etc, etc. It's perfectly feasible as a thing scum might do, therefore it's something that sometimes should be lynched. Again, I don't think this is one of those cases... but we have a way to potentially be sure.

I've been in *multiple* games where scum claimed vig. Granted, both of those games boonskiies was the one claiming it; but it is nonetheless something that scum do.

Do not call someone conftown when they aren't conftown.

I may be misremembering it but I do believe he himself has said otherwise.

I don't think I said this but I might have said something along those lines because I was thinking about it.

Here's what I'll say about what I think my scumgame would likely involve WRT the breadcrumb. There's a solid chance I would have thought to think of potential fakeclaims early in the game. It's pretty unlikely that I would have decided to crumb one. And if I did crumb one, I probably wouldn't have picked backup vig, which is a role that would have a high chance of looking like it doesn't belong in the setup.

He can, under no circumstances, claim a role which is provable.

Wait a minute.

Doesn't this disqualify me as scum, by your logic? My role is under some circumstances provable, and as far as theoretical scum-me knows, those circumstances (the existence of a vig) might exist.

So the suggestion to massclaim was made before I stated there was another investigative, you say?

Do tell.

Or are you going to claim you never read any of those in spite of literally over half of them directly involving you?

I read them.

I think that I thought the "investigative with a hard-innocent on awoo" was sarcasm, given your earlier stated 100% scumread on him. I remember reading it but I don't think I took it seriously. The others I ignored because I'm not taking your reads as gospel. And quite simply... this point doesn't matter. As I said, I very frequently propose massclaims as town, earlier than other people do. It's completely irrelevant if you think it's anti-town for me to do so. I do it as town. I disagree that it's anti-town. It's completely irrelevant as a point in a case on me.

If anyone had any doubts about implosion, they need only look at this point right here because this is bad on a horrendous level. I forget what the term is. Maybe misrep, maybe strawman, but what it is is that he's comparing a completely different situation to this one as if it were equal.

This line is me getting pissed off at your ludicrous lines of manufacturing my meta.

[implosion]

which is also why i clarified it in my next post

[implosion]

Like, re: the massclaim point. I don't understand why you think it's evidence that I'm scum when you have hard proof that I will suggest massclaim in similar situations as town.

[implosion]

And while I will thank you for getting me back into the game, I should probably step away from this at least for a bit.

[implosion]

so uh, I just made a random discovery. Namely, that mastina has been a mafia night 2 vigilante before. I wasn't even looking for this, I was just looking at some of fakegod's past games and found it.

If anyone else has been a mafia vig before, please say so.

[implosion]

Implosion what do you think of Mastina?

The fact that she's been a scum n2 vig actually somewhat completely flips my read on her. I'm still slightly deciding whether it means anything necessarily, but from my point of view the setup obviously makes more sense if there is some vig for me to inherit from. It would also help explain the preponderance of town power we have if scum have something that's strong in scum's hands like a night 2 vig.

Her case itself, I can see from town or scum.

I'd disagree that implo/Esp interactions can't be scum/scum. The VCA was really telling. The wagon shift at EOD from Esp->BNL->Esp was really weird and made no sense, and I thought scum were the ones who consistently stayed on a single wagon, which points to implo/Mylo.

What do you think of his interactions toward me?

I don't understand why scum would necessarily be the ones who stayed on a single wagon here, either. Scum would love the chance to potentially mislynch you if they thought they could get away with it. And it's not like I was parking my vote on Espeonage and coasting, I fought against your wagon. I think the espe wagon has a solid chance of being all town up until Kokichi's hammer (or including it if Kokichi does wind up being town).

[implosion]

I am

willing

to vote mutant.

I would much rather vote pine.

[implosion]

ah yeah true@game timing. My bad.

I have no reason to argue against your points. If you're town, you're wrong and you're clearly not going to see that.

[implosion]

I pretty much agree that implosions “Night 2 vig” shade throw was really bad.

Yeah, it was. Ironically it's probably something I'd have been a lot less likely to do as scum in this situation because I tend to read over my posts/be more cautious in general as scum. But alas.

Has Kokichi listed all of the scum roles he's had before yet?

[implosion]

Has anyone still alive been a scum doctor? Or roleblocker (I assume at least some people have)?

I can go through my list, not sure what I've been over the years.

[implosion]

Not guaranteeing this is exhaustive, but I have been:

Mafia goon (in many variations)
Mafia 1-shot strongman
Macho wolf
Mafia investigative enabler (if nightkilled, turns off investigatives)
Mafia odd-night nominator (irrelevant, open setup)
Bulletproof traitor
2-shot roleblocker

And at this point I'm going to stop looking because I have in fact been a roleblocker, though it was 2-shot (fferyllt's mini normal back in 2014).

[implosion]

And for anyone else lazy with years of games, best way to do it is to search your PMs using the advanced search for PMs with "role pm" in the title, restricting it to your inbox.

(though obviously be sure to ignore ongoing games/those that ended before this started, this is my only game so I didn't need to)

[implosion]

s/before/after

[implosion]

Wait a minute.

We have a tracker.

Who can get a guaranteed result if we lynch Kokichi today (assuming he flips scum).

What's more, I don't think I've been a ninja before, so I should be safe to track. There's a good chance worst will die but from what people are saying forcing scum's hand is probably a good thing. I think that's worth more than completely confirming BNL.

VOTE: Kokichi

[implosion]

That's irrelevant to the point, which is that if you're scum, lynching you today is better than shooting you tonight because it means there will only be one scum going into night (assuming 3:10), turning our tracker into a cop.

If you think I'm trying to save myself then why would I vote you, when you claimed goddamn vengeful who can only venge people on their wagon??

[implosion]

and if you are town and venge me maybe it'll be enough of a shock to people that they'll start, oh i don't know, acknowledging that pine is playing this game

[implosion]

So you want pine?

what ever could have given you that idea?

[implosion]

@kmo you missed kokichi's vote on me

[implosion]

This day has been pretty garbage tbh. We're letting so many people get away with lurking through important wagon developments.

[implosion]

I will ask BNL if he's willing to switch to Kokichi given 1049.

*especially* since kokichi can just venge me if he IS town, so it's that much more likely to guarantee exactly 1 scum left alive going into night.

[implosion]

awoo did you read my recent posts and if so do you think i'm more likely scum than kokichi

[implosion]

yes, and i'm giving a purely mechanical reason to lynch kokichi over me.

[implosion]

(well, purely mechanical modulo believing he's more likely scum than I am, which imo is pretty sensible)

[implosion]

read 1049

[implosion]

just go with your gut, and by your gut i mean the part of your gut telling you to vote kokichi

[implosion]

like, kokichi describing my vote on him as

But you are just blatantly trying to save yourself at this point

is practically him screaming "my role is a fakeclaim," since his claimed role can kill me if he's lynched with me on the wagon.

[implosion]

Okay, so.
Let me run it through you.

Basically.
This game has, confirmed, a Weak Doctor.
This game has, confirmed, a tracker.
This game has, basically-confirmed, a Cop-or-Vig.
This game has, basically-confirmed, the existence of a fourth hidden role. (Admittedly though the player isn't hiding their role nearly as well as I'd prefer but OH WELL.)

Everyone agrees that the scum must have a strong counter to this power.

I don't agree with this, because I don't know what the fourth role is. 2-shot weak doctor isn't especially strong. Tracker isn't especially strong. 1-shot delayed cop or vig isn't especially strong. I'm a lot less concerned with how much town power has been claimed given that my role is probably a dud.

Additionally, your argument falls flat because the only relevant power role I've been (at least in the past 4 years) is a roleblocker; if we lynch Kokichi, and kokichi flips scum, and someone turns up with a roleblocked claim tomorrow, that INSTANTLY hard-clears every living player who has never been a mafia roleblocker. It'd literally be suicide for me to roleblock one of them.

[implosion]

If you want me to I can look through the rest of the role PMs I've ever gotten to be sure.

[implosion]

So please explain to me, mastina, what magical dangerous scum PR I can possibly be.

[implosion]

Found a few more scumgames from 2011:

-Godfather
-A complicated thematic role that is basically more or less a godfather-rolecop (from advance wars mafia, but this is hardly a dangerous role and probably not something kmo would have picked because it has mechanics in it that were game-specific and wouldn't translate here)
-Rolecop (from a tit for tat game)
-A third-party role that would make literally no sense outside of its setup

[implosion]

(WHY THE FUCK WOULD A GODFATHER COMMIT THE NIGHTKILL)

Because he thought he'd be less likely to be tracked than his scumbuddy.

This answer works regardless of his role and regardless of his scumbuddy's role.

[implosion]

In fact, mastina.

If you're so convinced that the other scum must have an insanely strong PR, doesn't that disqualify me as scum based on the roles I've been? Unless you can find one I've missed, which is entirely possible. I guess it's probably a bit much to ask you to audit everything I'm saying as not just lies, but if I am lying then that's pretty damning of me if anyone does the work to check. I looked at all role PMs I've received since 2012 and egosearched all games I was in in completed game subforums from 2013 and earlier.

Actually found a couple more that I missed: another godfather game, and my role from Mafia behind the Maiden in which I was basically a doctor/silencer who couldn't perform the factional kill (so overall negative utility + another thing where I'd be giving myself away).

[implosion]

(WHY THE FUCK WOULD A GODFATHER COMMIT THE NIGHTKILL)

Because he thought he'd be less likely to be tracked than his scumbuddy.

This answer works regardless of his role and regardless of his scumbuddy's role.

This is literally the worst logic I've seen in all my time of mafia. Even if I was a godfather. Why the hell would that change anything if I'm CONFIRMED TO DIE TONIGHT

the thing you quoted has nothing to do with why I want to lynch you today.
This honestly looks like you’re willfully ignoring my posts.

[implosion]

And again roleblocker actually doesnt even qualify as a positive utility power role at this point due to the nature of this game and this player list.

[implosion]

surely, this MUST be massclaim day.

[implosion]

surely, this MUST be massclaim day.

Nah

Because...

[implosion]

Awoo is mechanically cleared btw, because 2 Goon + 1 Encryptor vs Town is likely not balanced.

Disagree with this, depending on what the role is. It'd actually be pretty comparable to a mini normal.

[implosion]

Though Awoo is town so.

[implosion]

So who do you guys wanna lynch? I am thinking in like

{pine, momrangal}
power gap where people I think should be lynched more are on top and people i think lynched less on below
{ep]

This looks -vaguely- accurate to me.

I'm uninterested in mutant after his Kokichi interactions yesterday.
I'm uninterested in Awoo because he's been acting town all game.
I'm uninterested in the worst for his track result.
I'm uninterested in BNL, among other reasons, because he was so insistent for so long that we let him verify his shot.

mastina I feel pretty much how I did on day one; I think she's town, but I don't understand her meta well enough to be sure.
Mylo could be scum. Gut says he isn't but gut is an awful reason. And it'd be awesome if he could stop parodying his own refusal to give content.

That leaves the 3 people you listed. Pine and Maragnal were basically MIA yesterday. EP had a couple content posts and is still a bit unlikely to be scum but I need to audit that opinion. Pine remains with literally 0 reason to townread. Maragnal I remember seeing good reasons to townread on d1, those need to be audited as well.

[implosion]

I think the results of the night speak for themselves as an "I fucking told you so" moment. (Mostly referring to the fact we're on evens, we have no definitive investigative results, and no players who are objectively absolutely cleared, even if some are subjectively soft-cleared and close to hard-cleared.)

I don't understand how you can see no one dying at night and call it an "I told you so" moment. Yeah we're on evens... with one scum left and only one townie dead. This is a wonderful position for the town. Please explain.

Oh really then?

Do tell.

Because Kokichi Oma was one of the most widely scumread players on D1.

Why the fuck would he be less likely to be tracked, then?

It's literally a

possible

reason. That's all it is. You wholecloth discounting it is intellectually disingenuous. You can't know how scum were thinking about night actions with that much certainty.

I don't even remember him being "one of the most widely scumread players" either; he had literally 0 votes in the last 11 votecounts of d1. I wouldn't call that especially widely scumread, and certainly not widely scumread to assume with 100% certainty that he'd avoid making the kill as scum.

[implosion]

As for massclaim, here is why today is 100% the day to do it. I'm almost happy to eat a lynch on me if it'd get us to massclaim.

1) This is the biggest reason, and isn't purely mechanical, it's more pragmatic: with all of the setup info on the table for everyone to look at, we can collectively decide whether or not we think all PR claims are truthful based on balance, and narrow the lynchpool. We can avoid mislynches that might have occurred based on unclaimed information. We can work together much more effectively as a team. Maybe someone is cleared (or less likely scum) based on some claim or some result, and someone else had been suspecting them heavily; now that other person can focus energy more productively on other suspects.
2) We can ensure that every single night action is going to use, and avoid situations like two investigatives clearing the same person. We can choreograph night actions completely. Scum near-certainly have no way to interfere with this without sacrificing their nightkill.
3) We can audit everyone's completed games to ensure that claims aren't similar to scum roles they've had; in most cases here, confirmable role = confirmable alignment. We can (and probably should) do this without a massclaim anyway, but with a massclaim it becomes even more powerful.
4) I've said this before, but I'll reiterate, because it's critically important to understand: we are ahead. Really, really ahead. In games, when you are ahead, you want to reduce the potential variance in the game so as to avoid as many unlikely loss situations as possible.

As for counters to the arguments against massclaiming:

Two scum dead,

This is a reason to massclaim, not a reason to not massclaim. We are ahead. See above.

all investigatives (minus Wisdom) alive,

Ditto this; this is also a reason to massclaim, so that we can get all investigative results explicitly out in the open in case an investigative dies before being able to do so. Plus, one of them has explicitly claimed, meaning that scum know a good choice for who to kill anyway, and claiming more of them doesn't have significant disadvantage.

scum having no idea who the fourth PR is

How do you know that they don't know who the fourth PR is? And what's the downside of them knowing, given that they already know plenty of good nightkill choices? Sure, there might be some downside here. But it is heavily, heavily outweighed by all of the positives I've listed.

(and maybe even having shot someone immune to death as a result),

If scum did this, then they know they did this... meaning that we should massclaim, to get that information that scum already has into the hands of the town.

[implosion]

Forgot to mention 5) we can force scum to 100% commit to a claim now, and prevent a possible power play later on. This ties hand-in-hand with the idea of reducing variance.

[implosion]

One, scum could have a role which using it last night fucks us over later. For instance, a fairly common enough scum role involves a delayed action of some sort. Plenty of roles fit the mold, from poisoner to bookie.

Cool. Like I said, let's not leave this to chance, and let's audit all of the scum roles that everyone here has ever played.
We can do it cyclically, with each person auditing the closest person below them on the player list that is still alive. We can get a comprehensive list of all such possible roles and who can have them, and we don't have to worry about it anymore, or know exactly what we do have to worry about.

the worst does not have a track result. And in fact, his claimed action given Screenplay's role history is something that is, objectively speaking, suspicious. (Fuck objectivity, butstill.)
BulletNLynchproof is not conftown.
We don't have any useful information at hand.

To clarify, it's suspicious because he's been a scum 1-shot tracker? The track yesterday no longer role-confirms him if he's scum (if he's scum, he could be any scum role srceen has had) since Kokichi flipped scum.
BNL is not conftown, yes.
I drastically disagree that we don't have any useful information at hand, though... saying "these people aren't conftown" doesn't mean the information we have isn't useful.

And isn't not having enough useful information on hand all the more reason to massclaim, to get as much useful information as possible? Or do you mean that there's no useful unclaimed information? Because unclaimed information is, well, unclaimed.

No player is hard-cleared objectively. While I have subjectively hard-cleared some players, including the unclaimed PR, we don't have any hard leads as to the final scum from roles alone.

I'm not saying we should use roles alone. But they sure are helpful.

You're really giving an incredibly pessimistic view of the gamestate here.

I have a knack for knowing what scum think. Even when all my reads are wrong, it's my one saving grace. I get to predict their actions.

Well sue me if I don't trust you on this with perfect certainty...

The real disingenuous thing here is implying that votes = scumread, and that just because he had none he wasn't.

That's not how it works.

Stated stances = scumreads, and Kokichi Oma was frankly one of THE most widely scumread players on D1.

I'm going for girlfriend time, so can't prove this now, but will do so later.

Feel free to, but it isn't really relevant to my opinions of anything; even if Kokichi was widely scumread, or even

one of the most

widely scumread, or even *the most* widely scumread, that doesn't automatically mean that scum would have avoided making him make the kill if they had a choice (that is, if the other scum has no action).

That sentence is kind of a mess eugh.

[implosion]

Oh? Do tell then. Explain why scum would send a large scumspect to do the nightkill. We know it happened. So since it happened, why did it happen? What are the most likely causes for it to happen?

because it's possible that both scum were large scumspects...

why do I have to spell this out?

It could be that, it could be that scum misjudged how big of general suspects they were, it could be because you're misjudging how big of general suspects kokichi or other people were, it could be because they were trying to outguess a theoretical tracker, it could be because they were scared of a watcher and wanted to send the more suspected scum, it could be because they thought the other scum was well-positioned enough to win the game alone if need be, it could be something we can't predict. It could be, like you've said, a power role, in which case I'd ask again, as I have many times, what power role I could possibly have that's relevant (the only ones are roleblocker, which as I've pointed out is useless in this setup with this playerlist, and rolecop, which is not especially strong). Townies are very bad at predicting which scum is going to make a nightkill; in this anecdote, Magna (who had claimed tracker the previous day) said that tracking me would have been an obviously idiotic choice because he'd given a scumread on me... when I had chosen to make the kill and I was in fact the only person worth tracking. It's not worth speculating on which scum would choose to make a kill because there are sufficiently many confounding variables that you're going to get on average much more accurate conclusions via scumhunting. Different scumteams think differently, and claiming that you can accurately predict how a team of people that you don't even know the complete identity of is going to think about such low-level decision making, decision making that different people and even different groups of the same people do completely differently, with any degree of accuracy is not something I see any reason to put stock in.

Not dying on the hill of massclaim, I've made my stances clear and disagree but it's not worth arguing.

[implosion]

It's good to see Pine entering the game; it'd be great to hear from him and EP some more depth on their thought processes throughout the game. And to hear from maragnal's replacement, of course.

Myloninja, do you have any particular suspects at this point? Any townreads other than the consensus ones?

[implosion]

So who would you say that points to as being scum, then?

Again, who does that implicate?

I don't think it points to anyone in particular, because, as I think I've made clear, I don't think it's worth going down that path to try to find scum when direct scumhunting will be more accurate. "both scum were seen as scummy" is just one possible explanation, and I have no reason to assume that it's an accurate one.

In fact these two questions illustrate my point very well; the former would implicate players who were seen as scummy on d1, the latter players who were seen as townish on d1. I can reasonably use this to justify anyone as scum, and the probabilistic analysis that can be gotten in this way is, IMO, less likely to be accurate than other methods.

And I see no reason to believe you're especially accurate with this kind of analysis... especially when i know that (if you're town) you're wrong here.

---

EP, can you make your current feelings on my play this game explicit? You've been very wishy-washy about it since d2 and it's making reading you really annoying, and is looking less and less like what I expect from your town game.

[implosion]

EP, can you make your current feelings on my play this game explicit? You've been very wishy-washy about it since d2 and it's making reading you really annoying, and is looking less and less like what I expect from your town game.

Sorry implosion, you're right.

I think your play has been analytically pretty town and so have your associations but a lot of extraneous factors make me want to suspect you. I think the Wisdom kill positions you perfectly, especially in a game where I felt like there were more logical N1 kills. But I do acknowledge that there could have been some PR read there. I think your claim is plausibly fake here as well.

UNVOTE:

I know I've been really really disengaged with this game. Sorry. I peeked mastina's ISO and yeah, that's pretty town. I think this game is just generally gonna shake out like how my TM game did-- punch out all the consensus lynches (Pine, mom, me if you want) and just win

If... someone actually wants to point me at something to look at and analyze I'd be happy to but otherwise I'm just gonna keep. Existing.

alright yeah this post in its entirety is fair.

[implosion]

To a degree I'm just wondering where all this saplust was yesterday...

I've no qualms about hammering other than just waiting for Gamma to get into the game and a claim.

[implosion]

But he's a shitty lynch.

Is this for any reason other than you thinking I'm scum?

[implosion]

We seem to have collectively forgotten we're in a game...

I've no qualms about hammering other than just waiting for Gamma to get into the game and a claim.

Case and point for implosion being scum, right here.

Wow good catch. Yeah that hammering thing comes off as really scummy.

How exactly is it scummy to say that I'd hammer the person who I literally spent the entirety of yesterday loudly protesting a lack of other people's interest in voting?

[implosion]

My old townread on mara was largely based on a single post. I felt really good about that post but don't feel good about the slot anymore because of attrition in the number of viable scum candidates and deterioration over time.

I buy pieces of mastina's pine case but not others. I don't think it'd necessarily be possible to see him micromanaging the other scum. I don't think he'd necessarily have motivation to make the kinds of plays she's describing that would turn momentum of wagons as scum.

In particular:

Maybe he works behind the scenes to accomplish this, but he usually makes an effort to not allow scum to die. (Keep in mind, he hates bussing. Distancing is fine all he wants, but actually bussing with serious intent to lynch? NNNNNNOPE.)

This describes his play toward both flipped scum. He never touched Espeonage. Kokichi, he distanced, then voted on d2, then unvoted to vote me when there was momentum on me. He wasn't trying very

hard

but he was pretty much consistently asking for lynches on town when scum lynches were viable (on awoo when espe was under threat, on me when koki was under threat).

I'd like to see some specific meta (specifically a low-effort town game and a low-effort scum game) that this Pine read is coming from, because my personal direct experience with Pine scum is not really relevant here.

[implosion]

My old townread on mara was largely based on a single post. I felt really good about that post but don't feel good about the slot anymore because of attrition in the number of viable scum candidates and deterioration over time.

I buy pieces of mastina's pine case but not others. I don't think it'd necessarily be possible to see him micromanaging the other scum. I don't think he'd necessarily have motivation to make the kinds of plays she's describing that would turn momentum of wagons as scum.

In particular:

Maybe he works behind the scenes to accomplish this, but he usually makes an effort to not allow scum to die. (Keep in mind, he hates bussing. Distancing is fine all he wants, but actually bussing with serious intent to lynch? NNNNNNOPE.)

This describes his play toward both flipped scum. He never touched Espeonage. Kokichi, he distanced, then voted on d2, then unvoted to vote me when there was momentum on me. He wasn't trying very

hard

but he was pretty much consistently asking for lynches on town when scum lynches were viable (on awoo when espe was under threat, on me when koki was under threat).

I'd like to see some specific meta (specifically a low-effort town game and a low-effort scum game) that this Pine read is coming from, because my personal direct experience with Pine scum is not really relevant here.

So basically what you're saying here is that you hold suspicion of both the major lynch candidates that are not yourself?

...yes? Why is this deserving of an ?
I've been quite clear about my feelings on people today. They mostly haven't changed. Gamma hasn't felt viscerally town in the way he usually does yet, in particular. I also don't buy that Pine's posting today is particularly town yet. I have been very active in pushing my opinions, and so I'm part of the reason why they are the other major lynch candidates...

[implosion]

*twitch* I genuinely forgot about that.

This is why skimming hurriedly to provide content post-prod is a bad idea.

This is probably the one post he's made today that makes me inclined toward town.

[implosion]

Also mastina, I don't understand how you can put stock into this meta knowledge of Pine having an inclination against bussing meaning that he's town, in a game where if he is scum he hasn't bussed at all...

...and simultaneously call me scum for bussing, when I've demonstrated that I generally have a predilection against bussing and generally (not always, but generally) only do it when I think it's necessary for very specific reason, e.g. in the one game that you listed that you seem to be extrapolating my entire scum meta from (floral mafia).

Like I understand why you're reading Pine as town based on that meta knowledge you have on him, if that meta knowledge is accurate. I get that it's not just about the votes that he's made but the degree to which he's trying to sway wagons. But if you are town, and you're putting stock in this meta on him and putting stock in one of four games that I've played recently while refusing to put stock in the other scum games I've played recently... if you're putting stock in the ONE recent scum game out of those four that had factors in it that significantly differentiated it from this one, namely the one of those four scum games where I was under heavy suspicion and pressure for most of day one... then you seriously have some damn strong confirmation bias.

I guess the only thing you've said about that game was the part about voting a scumbuddy early, but I think I've demonstrated that among those games as a whole I have a pretty solid disinclination toward bussing as scum.

[implosion]

Okay actually. Looking at mara's iso.

Post 139:

Mmmmm..

Martina/mutant/????

Awoo probably town, koki town?, pine town

VOTE: Mastina

I Really feel like wagoning this slot

I partially caught one of mara's scumbuddies off of this tell in 2013...
in this post, Mara is posting and it's actually remarkably similar. What I said about that post in a later day in that game was:

It'd be mildly strange if, in a vaguely opening-post like this, PL neglected to mention either of their scumpartners. Guess what four people that they mentioned have all flipped town... there's also tammy sorta but we all know she's town.

The logic doesn't work in the same way; the logic there was that PL scum implies Fonz scum. But there's still some validity here, because Mara does make these "list of people" early posts as scum, and does sometimes make them containing exactly one scum. In fact, in both of these posts, there's a list of 2 people and a list of 3 people, together containing exactly one scum in the middle of the list of 3 people. There's a good chance there's a tendency for her to do something like this as scum. The implication doesn't completely work in the opposite direction, but there is a bayesian probability argument that they'd be correlated.

As for other things in her ISO that look sort of suspiciously scum->scum...
273, the phrasing of "I think koki is town and am sure that these other people are town" seems very sensible as a scum hedge. The next post she lists a big list of everyone else as a lynchpool, citing 3 top picks one of whom is espeonage. She 'hammers' espeonage later. Possibly a knowing fakehammer, possibly scum trying to gain towncred from what she saw as an inevitable hammer, or possibly town trying to quickhammer but I really see no reason at all for town to want to quickhammer a wagon that nearly entirely formed on that page. When push comes to shove she eventually switches to BNL after being convinced that the wagon might have momentum.

All of her d1 scum interactions seem really really viable as s->s, though she does get some credit for putting Koki at the bottom of her reads list immediately on d2... though she did say she was going to push EP instead before she got replaced.

[implosion]

And Gamma's lurking here really doesn't inspire any confidence whatsoever. My lingering Mara townread was the reason I didn't really want that slot but Gamma's been gone for 2 days after giving basically the easiest kind of analysis in the world to give as scum. The post that I'd been townreading Mara off of is pretty mediocre too.

Gamma, claim.

[implosion]

with regards to EP, I thought post 1200 was a pretty decent indicator of town.

And Mylo I really should audit my read of (I don't know why I'm using the word audit so much here and I am aware of it but I am not going to stop) but I really don't think I'm going to wind up with a conclusion other than town.

[implosion]

Gamma, claim.

[implosion]

Think I'm still inclined to prefer Pine over EP right now.

[implosion]

BNL isn't a vig. He's a town police. I won't turn into his role if he dies.

[implosion]

No. I'm telling you, and have already told you, that I'm probably a backup with nothing to inherit from.

Kmo was in the game that I got my role from. I'm guessing she just thought of the game and did it partially to troll me... though backup-without-a-main-role isn't really exceptional these days.

[implosion]

I don't know what you mean by "qualifies as a stalled gamestate". This game has had a tendency to stall out a lot since yesterday. I can't say a ton after being wrong on maragnal (though literally everyone in the game except mastina was advocating for gamma's death iirc), but I will reiterate... the reasons that have been given to call Pine town simply aren't very good.

[implosion]

I'm not scum and I'm not giving up. It's just fucking pointless to talk to mastina and I've made myself clear on my thoughts.

[implosion]

What exactly do you want me to say in addition?

My main suspect right now hasn't posted yet today. I've explained why I think the towncase on him is bad, and my read on him is mostly PoE. I don't think it's worth the effort to fight my lynch because I feel like I should be obvious town based on day one, but understand why I'm still part of people's PoE relative to a lot of the rest of the game.

If you want me to elaborate on why I think EP is town, I can do that. Seems like it's my most contentious read right now. I don't feel especially confident in it though.

[implosion]

It's also frustrating because I feel like I have no hard information to work with. The only real info out there is the Wisdom kill and I cannot figure out what it means meaningfully... which is part of why I understand why I look scummy here. I've lately advocated that people don't put enough weight into NKA in modern meta and scum are abusing that, but this game turns out to be an exception and there's no meaningful argument I can give to explain why because I have no idea why scum shot Wisdom (assuming they did). Probably Kokichi was afraid of him but that seems like a shitty reason.

I don't think you make this line of play as scum. I don't think mutant or mylo's play make sense as scum. If Awoo is scum he's played a pretty insane game. That leaves Pine EP and mastina. It's really difficult for me to give an accurate read on mastina because it's clouded by her deathtunnel on me and because I don't know her meta well and she's a person where meta is fairly necessary for a good read. I think EP's play fits their town meta, as well as I know of it; I haven't seen them as scum but it fits what I know of them as town. And Pine has done about one thing that was slightly townish and played to his scum meta in interactions.

[implosion]

I'm not pushing it strongly because I don't feel great about it and every attempt I've made to discuss it in the past 2 days has been met with complete silence.

I'm not making cases out of a combination of dejection and laziness.

[implosion]

I shouldn't say complete silence. There was mastina's towncase on Pine. But iirc no one gave any response to my counterpoints. Could easily be forgetting.