Mini 2018 - American Presidents Mafia (Game Over)
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Nauci Mafia Scum
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I think that in the light of recent events (read: claim) and Math-Worst evaluation, I amIn post 2377, Irrelephant11 wrote:I thought Bernie's turn on Gamma could only come from town, it was too dangerously attention-grabbing to come from scum (re:bernie bro)
He asked us who are less-experienced to trust him. idk, this setup could include information I don't have that he does. I townread him, I only marginally want the worst dead over mom, and he asked us to BoP him if it doesn't work out. I'm not like giving my vote to Bernie, I'm just not voting the worst this game day because I somewhat trust Bernie.extremelyinterested in prodding TW to explain what he meant by the NK target comment and potentially claiming if so. I think that it's a major update from when Bernie made the plea.
That, and I'm not seeing a hard scum read on Mom like everyone else seems to. Scummy? Sure. Circumstantially/game state scummy? Also yes. Super ultra gross scum posting? Eh. Seems more like depression apathy (how well I know thee...) + tunneling. I think that after my catch up, even with as much "TW is kind of always like this" anti-bias as I can muster, I just think it's an outright scummier slot.-
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If you want to know why I think he's extremely calculating about literally everything he posts, just skim our scum thread:In post 2380, Shoshin wrote:
Opportunistic, yes. He's jumped around to a lot of popular wagons. But is that calculated? I'm not sure. I could be wrong but I feel like scum don't flop their reads around this much. But you and BV might be right, I'm not that confident in my read by any means. Sort of null for me at this point.In post 2361, Nauci wrote:@Shoshin I think that *everything* Scumrelephant did was calculated, and his votes especially. He was opportunistic, but never blatantly so, and will try to run a wagon up on a player he considers threatening to scum if given the opportunity, as well as fall in line with a popular wagon without the greatest of reasons if necessary, including flip flopping. So don't let Irrelephant sheep without providing perspective, ever. I don't think Scumrrelephant would dare to start any wagons, but I'm not sure if Townrrelephant would either and will need to go read his town game. I do think Scumrrelephant is fairly reluctant to succumb to momentous town reads on formerly easy mislynches though, once he has declared a scum read on someone, unless it's his partner.
viewtopic.php?f=94&t=75864
In that game, he managed to come up with reasons for flip flopping on a number of people and always kept track of keeping certain players viable as lynches for both game state and his POV, and went through quite a number of candidates on Day 3.
Just trust me that regardless of alignment, Irrelephant is tryhard AF, whether out loud in game thread or <elsewhere>. (That's as a compliment, Irrelephant!)
I would have expected Townrrelephant to have drowned us in a small deluge of analysis on your claim and the possible connotations by now.
...but maybe he did it in the scum PT, if there is day chat.-
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In the thread, sureIn post 2383, Irrelephant11 wrote:lol PR speculation was teacher's MO, not mine. I guess my initial feeling is that PR speculation helps scum more than town? But maybe post-full-reveal it would be more helpful to think about...
But in our thread, I'm pretty sure you looked through every possibility of fake claiming and other evaluations
I'm not sure why you wouldn't do that as town here because I'm damn sure your mind thought through the possibilities!-
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Effort is AI if it provides insight to your thought processIn post 2385, Irrelephant11 wrote:But @nauci I'm just busy this week, I barely have time to keep up with the thread. I'd love to be much more tryhard. I could copy/paste all the wagon analysis I did on my own at the start of D2 if you want proof that I continue to be tryhardrelephant (lol the elephant portmanteaus are my fav), but like you say my effort is NAI. I'm trying my hardest, promise
The asking everyone questions and arbitrary statements are not-
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In post 2389, BlackVoid wrote:It might actually be a good idea for TheWorst/Momrangal to claim. If we're going to wait all the way until intent is given, we're probably going to scramble towards deadline and it seems pretty obvious that those are our likely options.
If Shoshin isn't the nkIn post 2394, Shoshin wrote:Nothing wrong with getting two claims imo.-
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Haven't read Day 3 posts yet but here's my analysis after Night 2:
- Skitter is town. Skitter is soooooooooo town.
- Day 2 Momrangal basically gave up, so it's very likely that scum bussed her and are on wagon (at least 1, if not both). Especially busworthy if Scum PT was inactive.
- IMO, this would be slightly alignment indicative for sorting the rest of the game. People who are on wagon and would like daychat look better, and people who are off wagon and would love daychat look worse (only applicable to people I think would have a clear opinion on the matter, e.g. I'm fairly certain that Irrelephant would hateto give up Daychat and been less eager to bus when TW was a viable target unless Irrelephant/TW were the other two scum. On the other hand, I'm pretty sure N_M couldn't give fewer fucks?)
- The Worst played within his scum meta, and not terribly like his town meta. Don't have time to link stuff about his town meta at the moment though; hella behind in class because of illness.
- I went and skimmed some BV games. Didn't really manage to glean alignment indicators. Was leaning town due to post content but 0 votes on Day 2 pings me badly.
- Read Irrelephant's town replace-in game. Feeling better about him (in addition to above note).
- Bernie's end of day 1 is much more questionable now.
- I'm not sure why Momrangal would tunnel Bernie the way she did if they were scum together. Would that be likely to make him look town, or make him look more suspicious? Not sure how to feel about that.
- I guess that's a very, very high chance that Gustavo is town, unless scumGus pulled a night 1 No Kill in hopes there was a JK or Doctor to confuse?
- Errant needs to post a lot more. I haven't seen much of anything AI.
Shoshin - Odd Night Town Doctor
Gamma Emerald - Vanilla Town
Nauci
Skitter
Gustavo
Irrelephant11
Keyser Soze
Bernie Sanders
ErrantParabola
BlackVoid
Not_Mafia
The Worst
Momrangal - Mafia Encrytor
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Nauci Mafia Scum
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Agreed,In post 2442, Irrelephant11 wrote:So, I'm treating Gustavo as 85%+ confirmed town, vca says it's very unlikely that Bernie, errantparabola, or Keyser are scum (if anyone wants this in more detail let me know), somewhat unlikely that it's Not_Mafia or the worst, and... that's most of it I think.
That leaves me with BV, skitter, and Nauci. skitter and Nauci are never a team so let's park this votemobile on VOTE: blackvoid, who has yet to vote since replacing in \o/
Also Shoshin said at one point that she was burnt out on mafia and I hope she sees this and decides to keep playing mafia because she was v fun imo@Irrelephant.@Shoshin, you were awesome.
Also agreed WRT Gus and BV. The rest, not so much. However, the number of town reads you have would be pretty strange if you were scum so +1 pt for House Townrrelephant. Oh and is interesting, though the formatting of the > >> line was tough to parse. However, I think Skitter started pushing for a momrangal lynch like, halfway into Day 1, which feels pretty absurd.
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This was ++points for House Town Soze and a large part of my townlean read. It was the vote that made the strugglewagon viable for a moment. If TW were to flip red Keyser would look really good, IMO.In post 2453, Keyser Söze wrote:In post 2447, Gustavo wrote:I don’t think VCA clears Keyser.Yes I had my EoD1 vote on Mom...
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Hall of fame post right here. People seem to have been extremely distracted by the bizarro "pr" breadloafing meta, but TW's refusal to answer questions, bullshitting joke posting, and inconsistent, unexplained reads are why I scumread him.In post 2474, skitter30 wrote:i'm kinda waiting to see where tw is going to push today
i'm low-key thinking that he was pushing mom/me/nauci knowing that mom would flip red so that he could then push me/nauci today
i'm still *very* interested in having tw explain how he thinks that makes sense
or how he went from
to the following when pushedIn post 2075, the worst wrote:gamestate is highly highly consistent with Nauci and skitter being scum with Mom. in retrospect vesides recognising that I shouldn't be lynched she hasn't done a lot. I think I was being stupid yday.
In post 2416, the worst wrote:@Bernie you may be overestimating how much I've put into this. it's independent scumreads with the gamestate softly supporting them as partners sometimes.I'll re-read their ISOs when I have time later though.@The Worstwill you respond to Skitter's point? It's an objective point irrelevant to our alignments.
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In post 2490, Keyser Söze wrote:Take a look at the scummeta Nauci dug up on TW on D2
If TW is town here it is genius play. What a gambit. Play out your scum meta to perfection, but actually be the town PR to save the game
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You think it's plausible that Scum!Skitter would, beginning at page 18, push for a lynch on Momrangal, who was providing Day Chat to the scum PT, when Skitter is a pretty talkative person who would likely make great use of Daychat?In post 2528, Gustavo wrote:
Based off what?In post 2526, Nauci wrote:Skitter is town. Skitter is soooooooooo town.
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Scum Worst fake claimed gooncop in Open 719
Fake claim of some sort of copping role in a weird role madness game? TW planning his fake claiming
"We're not lynching me today" type shit like 5 times Oh hey in that same game he aggressively scumread a town who had his number and called votes on him gross and bussed the hell out of his teammate
Hilarious comment from meta discussion thread: "takes input well enough as town. walking noise machine as scum."
Okay my meta dive assessment of TW is that lots of fluffposting is NAI. Post count is NAI (he's racked up >300 as both alignments). Tends to be a bit more defensive/short tempered as scum, and contribute more sharp questions/observations as town (on top of fluff posts). I apologize for being unnecessarily rude to the duckling but I do not rescind my scumread (almost all non-scum-reads on TW are as a result of the claiming that he has clearly done as scum).
However, in light of current events, I think we have room to spend D3 hunting for Scum #3 unless something happens w/ TW's claim that isn't just noise.-
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I'll agree here.In post 2569, skitter30 wrote:
i think bussing votes are something likeIn post 2430, brassherald wrote:momrangal (6)~ Bernie Sanders, skitter30, Errantparabola, the worst, Irrelephant11, Gustavo,Not_Mafia
tw > irrelephant > nm = errant > bernie > gustavo
in that order
i don't think bv's lack of vote yesterday is really that problematic tbh
I missed his explanation post at the time but it seems plausible now.
Hmm you've given me new sources of paranoia on Keyser I guess, but I still lean town there. How do you feel about Irrelephant today? After reading his town game and skimming our scum game again, I think that while all of the individual posts he has made are within his scumrange, his overall progression of reads has been fairly town now that Mom has flipped, so I moved him into green.-
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Siiiiiigh.In post 2590, Gustavo wrote:who has analyzed mom's posts? who is most likely scum from them? I want to do it myself but again no time.
I like keyser as scum because he wasn't on the lynch but asked for a claim. You ask for a claim when someone is at L-1 and intent is given, you don't ask at l-2. i don't really see him pushing hard for that lynch either. like he didn't want to bus which makes sense as they would lose day talk.
Not taking NM into account is dumb
Also I've seen nm be far less "useless" as town-
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Didn't you just respond to my post about how Skitter had been trying to lynch mom with singular perseverance since page 18In post 2592, Gustavo wrote:just off memory skitter and keyser but somebody said skitter was not mom's partner and I am not sure why that was said. I can't do this off memory anymore, I need to refresh my mind by reading-
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In our stack the deck game, I Vigged scum N1. TW basically outed himself D2 while their 3rd was one of the more scumread slots in the game.In post 2576, Keyser Söze wrote:@skittles
Do you think scum-TW has given up today? (he’s decided for D3 to be about him, with the potential of it being 9 town vs 1 Mafia going into N3) Is hethatconfident that his scum partner is that well town read / hidden?
Is there ANYTHING from his D1/D2 play that backs up this trying-to-look-scummy-but-really-a-town-pr narrative?
So I'm not sure if it means he feels confident about their 3rd?-
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24 hours without elaborating on his claim (likely because he didn't find anything to help him make something plausible up?).In post 2600, skitter30 wrote:
Yes, basically every single post of mine on the previous page was either directed at you or about youIn post 2578, the worst wrote:I'll read thru that l8r if I'm in the mood. anyone able to tell me if any of it was directed @ me?
I'm trying really hard to reach out to you here to figure this out and I'm kinda feeling like you're avoiding responding to what I have to say by hiding behind 'lol walls that I dont want to read', which is honestly not a response that I'm used to you having to me and to my posts
These delay tactics. Ugh.
I might have more on Irrelephant later today, but my read is mostly based on his relatively confident high number of town reads without "but I'm paranoid about X" type caveats. He'd be playing significantly against his wincon to do this when there are juicy targets like Keyser that people are trying to scumread, and there are more than one of these so it's not just covering for a partner.-
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Is it really a defense if I just think it's absurd to think anyone would bus a teammate so hard starting as early as page 18?
I mean it's not even personal at that point
If someone wants me to spend half an hour dragging up all of the times Skitter and I have reacted to stuff the same way I will but it seems like such a waste of time because it's not scum hunting. I'd rather be rereading bv/errant
PEdit: how am I pushing for a TW townflip when I said that I would wait for the night to see his alignment because presumably if he's a PR he'd be shot? Seems dumb for scum to try to reverse psychology us instead of take out 2 TPR when one scum is down. I announced that I'd be looking for other scum today.-
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QQQQQIn post 2642, Irrelephant11 wrote:
I just discovered that 2156 is NOt another votecount thingy, but instead full of words! Wowwwww hahaha and so much of it includes meeee this issomething
pedit: @skitter I think you're possible-scum this time just from my vca and how BV talks about you. If the worst and Not_Mafia are both town, I think BV is the next most likely scum, and you would be his msot likely partner. If enough things happen today to make me think that tw and NM are both town, I'll ISO you again and let you know more thoughts. For now, it was just a thing I noticed while reading BV. I don't scumread you in isolation right now
pedit2: I'm making pushes on you because you've played in real time the least out of anyone in the player list and because I can't *do* anything to sort NM or the worst right now. I'll obviously drop it if the worst is like "Guilty on NM", or even better, "Guilty on Irrelephant"
This is what I get for spoilering my giant wall posts to make the game more readable
No one reads them at all
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I'm having a really hard time passing this postIn post 2655, Errantparabola wrote:
He almost certainly didnt. I thought about it and i want to claim now because i'm basically a VT at this point. I neighborized worst.In post 2622, Keyser Söze wrote:@EP - why do you think TW chose you? (It’d been easier to stir up a wagon/fake a guilty on me or Not Nafia).
I told him that he was obviously softing PR. I asked where his reads were and said that he was pushing nauci and skitter hard yesterday and setting them up as partners with mom while trying to push mom and that was suspicious to me
He implied heavily that he was an investigative and said he would be "looking" at BV. thinking about it now i dont think worst ever hard townread me so idk why he claimed, but it seemed like worst was pretty much gearing up to claim eventually with how hard he was hinting at it in thread
i asked him why he didn't investigate one of his scumreads.
He said its better to focus on the top of the lynchpool and justified that bv was a nullread who wasnt going to be nk'd.
i asked if he had a N1 result and he said that maybe i'd find out eventually.
I asked him, only semi-jokingly, to investigate me, and he refused.
Sorry but could you post explicitly the order of actions you know took place and when (d1, n1, etc.)?-
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https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Neighborizer
They are explicitly any alignment, but frequently pro town-
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Well that's an incredibly gross sequence of interactions from TW if he were a cop (or most other investigative roles)In post 2676, Errantparabola wrote:
I dont even remember but it was something to do with the replace in i think, I wasnt taking the game nearly as seriously as i did on D2 and D3 and thought it didnt really matter who i targetedIn post 2665, Gustavo wrote:
What was the stupid reason you had for the town read? Did you ever explain it?In post 2658, Errantparabola wrote:cause i thought he was town d1 and we're friends and i like him
Okay:
N1: I neighborized worst
D2: The thread was made.
N2: The thread was unlocked.
Post order (we joked around a lot, those things are omitted. and posts are heavily paraphrased for obv reasons)
EP: I know youre a PR
EP: What are your reads, do you still scumread Nauci & Skitter
TW: Nauci & Skitter are probably partners with mom, i'm not surprised at the flip
TW: I'm probably going to be looking at BV tonight
EP: So you're a cop? why don't you investigate one of your scumreads
TW: It makes more sense to investigate at the top of the lynchpool <-- (basically claiming cop or something simiilar??)
TW: BV is a nullread and most likely wont be night killed
EP: I still dont think it makes sense not to investigate a scumread
TW: I'd always choose someone like this regardless of who i scumread
EP: did you have a result on N1
TW: maybe you'll find out eventually
EP: Why not investigate me instead of BV
TW: no thanks
But I'll wait to hear wtf happened with BV I guess-
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WatIn post 2674, Keyser Söze wrote:
Sounds like TW got a guilty, and EP didn’t roleblock/NK TW, knowing that’d he’d target (BV?).In post 2479, the worst wrote:thank you. I kept trying to discreetly tell people that keeping me alive was good. >:/
for the record EP plays a part in why I had such a lovely night.
@the worst?-
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Thanks!In post 2687, Gustavo wrote:
About 25% of the time it’s scum.In post 2671, Gustavo wrote:
I’ll check later.In post 2669, Keyser Söze wrote:Neigbourizer.. is that usually town aligned in these type of games on mafiascum?-
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How about you explain what you even meant here thoughIn post 2690, Keyser Söze wrote:
Let’s wait to hear from TWIn post 2685, Nauci wrote:
WatIn post 2674, Keyser Söze wrote:
Sounds like TW got a guilty, and EP didn’t roleblock/NK TW, knowing that’d he’d target (BV?).In post 2479, the worst wrote:thank you. I kept trying to discreetly tell people that keeping me alive was good. >:/
for the record EP plays a part in why I had such a lovely night.
@the worst?-
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I mean that would be hilariously suicidalIn post 2717, Bernie Sanders wrote:maybe EP and TW just claimed their scum pt as a neighbourhood in the ultimate gambit strat
theoretically with at least 1 mafia PR (I mean, encryptor is a pretty powerful PR for 13 player, right?), there's at least 1 TPR who could CC if BOTH of them claim to be TPR
because there's no way there are 4 TPR in a 13p normal I think? I would glare at Brass forever if there were
which I suppose means
no matter what TW's role claim is, if someone CC's TPR at all, then *at least* TW is scum, if not both
and if TW is scum but Errant is town, then TW is probably doing this in hopes that the remaining TPR CC's so scum can NK them even if TW gets lynched tomorrow worst case because there was almost no chance that TW would make it through D4 in any case because half the town is happy to lynch him today (and yesterday), which would make this a great play for Scum Worst
I'm having trouble with how his actions make sense as a TPR however, especially if he and Errant round out the TPR cast for this game.
tl;drIf there's another town PR in this game do not claim today even as a CC unless you're -1; there's no reason to when at worst, the worst will be lynched tomorrow for lying
(except in the seemingly extremely unlikely scenario of a scum Errant thinking TW is a Town PR and neighborizing him for crazy 11th dimensional chess town credit instead of killing a 2nd TPR on N3)-
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I haven't had time to really get into it but someone mentioned earlier that I looked like I was too eager to sheep irrelephant about scumreading BV or something
You'll notice that I've been paranoid and unable to read BV for most of the game because I don't think his analysis has been super AI, and that I've been wanting to case him the whole time, so when someone started talking about it, I was excited about it.
Especially because that someone is a player that I am now townreading (another thing that I will explain later when I have more moments to write a stupid wall)
For now we're all waiting for TW to stop fucking with us, ya?-
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Are you saying either there's a 3rd TPR with all of the power or that a 4th is plausible?In post 2721, Bernie Sanders wrote:Would never ordinarily recommend cutting someone doing what TW is this game this much slack but there is a fairly big power shortage here that makes me somewhat wary. doctor wasn't even full but oddnight
Also logically TW should know on some level the risk associated with softing if he is scum but doing it when mom the encryptor was the clear other lynch to him would be just kind of dumb I think (though maybe he's just bad at scum)
neighbouriser is almost negligible in any power sense if town and one that gives neighbourhoods that delayed and nightonly feels like it sucks even compared to neighbourisers im used to
if EP felt scummier here I'd completely ignore the claim altogether WRT pushing or lynching him BTW but he doesn't really stick out besides being kind of unengaged (although maybe that's why it's hard to tell)
I mean if the other 2 mafia are only goons, then 3 seems plausible.-
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So you disagree with my speculation about scumErrant+townTW?In post 2724, Bernie Sanders wrote:btw I remembered from one of the times reading mom iso but
mom-invisibility thing on the surface might seem anti-tell on most surface level but is pretty common to how noobscum and sometimes badscum distance
rvs partnervote is almost infamous as is votepark on partner but dont really push him and sleep off most of other game happenings-
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You?In post 2758, Keyser Söze wrote:
Whose reaction are you waiting for? Which player are you waiting to post? Are you waiting for me to counter claim?In post 2501, the worst wrote:
yes, transparentlyIn post 2500, Keyser Söze wrote:Are you waiting for reactions/players to post TW?
Or someone?
Huh?-
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I spent so much of day 1 pushing gamma and got cold feet when his wagon looked weird and he was being activeIn post 2757, skitter30 wrote:actually skimming through nauci's iso again idk if she makes much sense with mom; she'd have to have bussed her nearly as long as i was pushing her
But momrangal was in my scum pile the whole day
Day 1 I spent a ton of time telling people that all the things Irrelephant was being town read for were in his scum range and he shouldn't get credit for them, but Shoshin was right: they weren't out of his townrange.
But the point of them was that you can't read Irrelephant by effort, or thoughtful sounding questions, or seemingly complex tryhard analysis. You have to read him by his progression: is there a narrative of actions that benefits scum by getting the more active/threatening players lynched? Is he fighting back on clearing those players as town? Or giving some players less attention than others, or using a lot of "this feels weird" language? I think that as the game has progressed his reads have felt more like frustrated town trying to solve the game instead of scum manipulating game state and sow doubt, and like the posts are less immaculately prepared than in our scum game and more like his posts in the town one (taking into account his intentional spelling errors as scum to look more casual).
My biggest thing is that I know he loves scumchat as much as I do and even if he was scum with TW, he would have voted there instead of to take out scum day chat when both were very viable wagons short of TW being some sort of very broken scum role.
It's not the hardest town read but it's a town read. I put it on par with my Keyser read.
I think Gus is letting the soft clear on him make him complacent :<
And the longer TW delays like that the more I'm convinced he's full of shit because this feels like a classic TW pulling shenanigans when his back is up against the wall, or scum trying to bait a town CC. Ugh.
Errant, do you read TW as town for anything other than the breadloafing?
PEdit: BV why on Earth would Momrangal think TW is a PR struggling enough to divert the wagon off of him,and then shoot at Gustavo? Unless you have an explanation for why the lack of NK had nothing to do with the doctor and is because of something TW is capable of when he has a supposedly investigative role...-
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Can confirm this; picked up daychat in stack the deckIn post 2768, the worst wrote:DID YOU SAY BREAD?!
this may come as a shock to you Nauci but I like pts as well
But don't think it's as major as Irrelephant =P-
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The really really weird thing is that I can't rule out tw/bv both being scum lol
But math's posting made me feel like he was definitely not vt, but not sure if scum or pr
1sbp wouldn't make sense to play like that except in the case of math, who would do it to try to draw the NK attempt
Haven't read most posts except the claims and whatever and thus far I'm confused about the game setup
Wait BS what
Man I'm so lost-
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Don't you drag me into this horseshitIn post 2887, the worst wrote:inb4 Nauci fakeclaims voyeur who saw an investigative on me-
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Currently feeling bv-tw for scum tbhIn post 2894, skitter30 wrote:i'm kinda inclined to believe bernie here given that he gets auto-lynched on a tw townflip; and he had enough towncred to like ... not need to do that-
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I doubt brass would fuck it up that badly
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Rb results in "no result" for tracker I thinkIn post 2943, skitter30 wrote:Is there a reason why tw cant be the rb again
Assuming you believe BS-
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He basically said so d2 when he demanded bv get coppedIn post 2960, Bernie Sanders wrote:TW why pick BV-
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I think bv > tw lynch order is game theory better at the moment? Because tw flip doesn't clear bv but I think bv flip might clear to and both informative on BS
But I think we have some disagreement on whether or not bv and tw can be scum together so I'll hold off until I get a better understanding of that-
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This is usually the caseIn post 2991, skitter30 wrote:@brass: I dont know if this was said anywhere but is it known if scum can kill and use a role/ability on the same night?
Also, scum having a JOAT isn't out of the question-
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I have had a gut feeling most of d3 that TW is scum JOAT or role cop or something
Scum!TW would totally take a shot at MathDino after d1 because quiet Math super felt like a PR (which would make sense for Math to do: try to sound like a PR to draw scum's wasted shot, and see what the reactions were)
And when it didn't work, would RC the slot instead because the doctor protected Gustavo so it must have had special sauce, and try to frame him instead
But if TW is town, the whole BV NEEDS TO BE COPPED thing makes more sense (unless he's traitor)
Either way, I don't really give BS points for the push on Mom day 2 because it felt nearly inevitable from the start, so I can imagine most scum would be willing to hard bus there. He gets points for other things he has done, but not that.-
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