Mini Theme 2022: Trapped! [Gameover]

[northsidegal]

here's my last will

if i were lynched i would be pretty surprised and disappointed, i guess. i'm kind of excited to get into this game, as i'm sure you can tell.

if i were killed during the night i would again be disappointed and probably a little bothered, but also maybe a little flattered? either way, the main things i would want people to take away are: myloninja is definitely town, keep your eye on ofrhz, get randomidget replaced or get him to say something, and try keep a healthy dose of paranoia.

and here are some random assorted thoughts because i'm not sure if i have something entirely coherent to say but i kind of have a lot of things to say:

first off, the deadline for this day will be set based on when we do our guessing. what i propose is that we set our own "deadline" - not as one where when it runs out that's when we do the guessing, but one where we can say that the day "ends" after that point. it's been my experience that games or days without deadlines often induce town apathy and lead to lurking - i don't want that to happen.

i would personally propose either a 7 or 10 day deadline, but i'm interested in what others have to say.

second off,
VOTE: ofrhz

i don't want a repeat of yesterday where it comes down to the wire as to who we're going to be voting. it seems to be like the blind nature of voting in this setup benefits scum as they can use their numbers to try to make it look like it's futile to vote elsewhere than their preferred mislynch. it's possible that it was just an artifact of the challenge yesterday that who to vote didn't get discussed until the end, but either way i don't want a repeat of what happened. so, i'll constantly be indicating who my vote will probably be going on, and i recommend others do the same.

[northsidegal]

but I also want to meta dive to see how often he throws this "I'm being misrepped!" crap out as town.

i haven't actually read the back and forth between you two all that closely but from what you described it sounds similar to something that happened in a game that i modded, dynamic duo / double day unlimited (it's micro 800-A, if you wanted to review it)

anyways, thoughts on enigma and feysal?

[northsidegal]

hellooooooo!

I'm a little lost on who might be scum honestly. Is anyone around to talk to?

i'm here! i still think ofrhz has a pretty good chance at being scum so i think i'll still be voting there and i recommend everyone do the same, but as for others i think i'm going to start reviewing the ISOs of the people in my "surface towny" group, i.e. enigma and feysal come to mind immediately. any thoughts there?

or, how about we both do the same thing and see what thoughts we both come up with?

[northsidegal]

by the way, has anyone given any thought to my "deadline" idea?

like, what if i just put this out there?

(expired on 2018-08-16 12:52:59)

[northsidegal]

i don't think GL is -unlikely- to be scum but i don't really have any specific reasons to think he's scum over him being town. i don't think that's a distinction i can make without doing some serious reviewing.

[northsidegal]

@NSG and @Irrelephant, what do you guys think of Enigma? attacking Chickadee here is what I would expect scum in his position to do if he doesn't want to go after more active/difficult mislynch targets. He's a scumread I feel better about as I reread his ISO. and NSG if you're on the scum!ofrhz train then I see an associative there as Enigma has never commented on ofrhz and ofrhz has responded to a few of Enigma's NAI posts (D1 is boring, plan for the challenge) and then gave him a casual townread in 414.

i don't really think it's all that unlikely. one thing that stood out to me in his iso was this:

242

-snip-

This will probably dig my grave a bit, but if I was scum I would want to coast through this game (as I'm currently doing now ). They have very little pressure of death and can easily slip under the radar by just counting and not really contributing.

243

And because of that, my lynch pool would be one of those who have counted but haven't really added any content (so there are probably 3ish of them atm).

the argument could be made that the thing he does where he points out his own play as scummy is scum-indicative in itself, but what i'm mainly interested in is the second point. if enigma knows that he's town and also knows that he's coasting through the game, shouldn't it give him some pause as to saying that the other people coasting through the game are his lynchpool? i'm not exactly sure how to describe this best, but it could be revealing of his mindset: that is, he knows that he's scum and he knows what he's doing, so he takes behavior that he knows is coming from scum and uses that to form a lynchpool of others.

i guess something else that could be scummy would be the lack of a mention of pine in the end of day vote thing that we all did. he said that both pine and nk15 were in his lynchpool, so i guess i might expect at least something about that.


despite all that, i still feel more confident in ofrhz being scum, and as such i would still (still plan to, that is) vote there before i would vote enigma.

[northsidegal]

i guess in short: as an associative read i think it makes sense, and even if ofrhz were to be town i would still say that he might have a decent shot of being scum; all that being said, i would still flip ofrhz before him.

[northsidegal]

This is because NK15 wasn't on my radar until someone mentioned them in their lynchpool, and upon reading their ISO, their ISO was really shallow.

and by the time you read this the thread was already locked?

Or town not having any strong scumreads. I don't understand why you think me consensus forming as the day drew to a close was scummy.

-shrug-

it was just something that stuck out to me. i don't think that in a vacuum it's actually that reliably scum-indicative nor do i think it's the best reason to scumread you.

[northsidegal]

you also, erm, hadn't noticed that nk15's iso was shallow before someone brought it up at the end of the day?

[northsidegal]

and by the time you read this the thread was already locked?

oh i'm wrong on this comment; i misremembered and thought that you hadn't mentioned nk15 at all, when in actuality you made this post about him before the thread was locked:

316

I think I prefer VOTE: not known 15 right now.

I will be here for the next two hours

more of my thoughts are coming back to me now. i guess another reason i found this scummy is not just because of the lack of prior mention but also the lack of any explanation. you say that someone mentioned it and so you reviewed his iso, but you didn't say anything about that and so i can't assume that there was some deeper thought process there. going just off of what you posted you don't really show that you did any sort of reviewing or anything.

[northsidegal]

If this does not ring any bells, it should. This is strikingly similar to how Northsidegal declared a town read on Myloninja, also using meta. See, while I said I believed Northsidegal was town, it is what I wanted to believe. In the back of my mind I wondered, what if she and Myloninja are partners? I dismissed that thought because I did not expect scum to defend their partner like that, and later this was part of why I looked at Myloninja, to solidify my read on them both. But now I see this, scum Northsidegal defending scum Ofrhz after replacing in, doing the very thing I thought she would not do as scum. Add the fact that Ofrhz was mislynched in two of the games Northsidegal was also in, and while neither was her fault I'd expect her to realize Ofrhz is liable to being misread.

the great thing about meta reads when i'm town is that people don't have to take my word for it or even believe me or trust me; they can verify whatever i'm saying for themselves. you'll notice that in that exact game that you quoted nacho did that exactly, calling me out for an unsubstantiated statement ("ofrhz is playing similarly") and talking about how she wasn't actually playing similarly at all.

-shrug-

if you're concerned about me or myloninja being scum, look at the meta for yourself; i think that

i'm

an easy sort based on the differences between my town and scum game, but compared to me i think mylo is a far easier sort.

[northsidegal]

Like I was saying last time I posted, we seem to be doing fine, and the more I think about it the more it bothers me. Our collective list of potential suspects consists only of low profile or low content players, and no one seems to have an actual case on any of them.

i'm fine with this, at least for now. i think that one of the main ways that towns lose is by focusing on people who do outrageous things rather than silently scummy people. i don't exactly have some vendetta against lurkers, but i think that just having all of your scum suspects be of a similar post-count isn't that much of a reason for concern.

GuiltyLion is the last player I thought had pulled the wool over my eyes, but I did take Pine's case seriously enough to look if he had ever played the scum mayor before. I would expect people to keep similar styles across games, that is what meta is all about, but I found no examples of GuiltyLion ever playing like that.

huh? you've never seen scum GL try to be a town leader? can you expand on that?

[northsidegal]

a) Why does scum in Pine or Mylo or ofrhz's spot write a weak explanation when a long one is easy and seen as more pro-town?

i'm going to answer this just because i saw it when reading enigma's post i think and i feel like i have something to say here despite this post being like 3 pages ago

why would i as scum lurk or post very little or post unsubstantiated things when i know that people are more likely to townread me making big posts with huge explanations? well, for me it comes down to ability and motivation. i

know

personally how i

could

theoretically get townread as scum, but having the ability to do it and the motivation to do it are two entirely separate things. i think the exact same thing could apply when it comes to scum making their vote explanation.

[northsidegal]

I may look at your meta later, or WhyMafia whom you replaced, but I think my time is better used elsewhere right now. Note that I was not trying to read you before, I was trying to read Ofrhz, and since you have been prominently pushing him today and I noticed you had been in multiple games together, I wanted to see if you had any insight into his play and what your track record reading him was.

i mildly scumread her early on in open 726 before i changed my mind. that's the only one that comes to mind readily, although i'm pretty sure there are other examples (probably from other open games)

How likely do you think Ofrhz is to be scum? I liked his reply to my last post. If he were scum, I rather think he would welcome me questioning your town status.

more than anyone else and enough that if the day were to end right now i would feel fine voting there.

i'm not sure if i can be justified in saying this based on the games me and ofrhz have played together or if perhaps this is me overestimating how obviously town i am to other people, but if ofrhz scumread me here i would take it as an even greater point of suspicion. i don't think that's a reason to townread ofrhz unless it was likely that what you said would change people's minds. if you want me to elaborate on that point i can because it might be confusing (it's somewhat confusing to think about) and i tried to think of the best way to word it and i couldn't.

[northsidegal]

hi don't replace me!

[northsidegal]

pine why

[northsidegal]

still voting ofrhz

[northsidegal]

irrelephant please elaborate on the chickadee tr please

[northsidegal]

i scumread chickadee more for apparently catching up but not posting before the number being revealed

will try to explain more later

[northsidegal]

actually you know what I'm totally fine with a {ofhrz, Enigma, Chickadee} lynchpool, I'm satisfied with townreads on everyone else for now. Until/unless I see a townflip inside of those three I doubt I'm going to have a massive shake-up/reassessment.

I have some thoughts about Chickadee that I'll expand on later this evening, don't have time to do it justice right now

i exactly agree

[northsidegal]

Can you explain the timing more clearly? Maybe I'm not understanding the issue you're seeing. I literally just got here. It was revealed as I was catching up.

anyways, here's the elaboration i promised:

in essence, it's just not what i consider a town reaction. maybe it's unfair to think of a not-town reaction as a scum one rather than just null, but i'm not sure. either way, when i saw pine do the second pick, i panicked somewhat. in my head i kind of considered that it was already "twilight" so to speak - the idea of the number being right didn't even occur to me at all. maybe it's reaching to say this, but someone catching up, seeing pine do the second pick and not rushing to make whatever posts they were going to make in some sense indicates to me that they might have already known that the day wasn't going to end.