Mini 2079 - Guns & Roses [Game Over]

[Blake Belladonna]

UNVOTE: Lady Lambdadelta

Good evening, everyone.

I will catch up in the morning, I promise. In the meantime, a general synopsis of the game and any particular relevant information would be appreciated, since it will make it much easier for me to get a grasp on the game.

[Blake Belladonna]

I will go into one thing off the bat while I'm thinking about it, however.

Kagami, how sure are you that LLD is scum? Can you point me directly to why you believe so, or if you haven't explained it yet, explain it for me? This is important to my read on you this game.

That didn't take long.

This was an open alt anyways, so oh well.

[Blake Belladonna]

Actually, I would appreciate a summary if Implosion's and Hitogoroshi's thoughts too.

Those three things should be enough to give me a rough idea of what's going on.

[Blake Belladonna]

At daystart, I had her as a primary scum candidate with hito for bullying for the pine lynch.

How much of your reason for putting her at L-1 because of this point by itself?

[Blake Belladonna]

I think you're not going to like what I have to say about this game, Something_Smart.

[Blake Belladonna]

Namely, that I think Kagami is much more likely to be scum this game than Lady Lambdadelta is.

[Blake Belladonna]

I think you + Kagami is the simplest answer, yes.

I don't necessarily believe that the simplest answer is the correct one. I haven't done enough legwork to determine what exactly scum have been looking to do this game, Kagami's actions in particular just stood out to me.

[Blake Belladonna]

Consider my vote on Kagami.

I won't vote yet primarily because I still want to see what Implosion and Hitogoroshi have to say first regarding my earlier question towards them, but I have seen about enough myself to believe that Kagami is the scum in this exchange.

[Blake Belladonna]

Ank, it's already pretty silly to think that kagami-scum would be antagonizing Hito-town here especially given I could have leveraged the townread in this utterly repulsive post, but to do so as a team with S_S makes absolutely no sense.

Regarding this, I can't comment on the validity or lack of myself since I have never played with hitogoroshi before that I am aware of, nor have played with you in the past few years, nor have any idea how your in-game dynamic plays out.

What I do see, however, is that you specifically have the highest probability of being scum based on my prediction of what scum would be looking to do today, or even what I would expect any scumteam to be able to do in a playerlist this high enough caliber.

[Blake Belladonna]

I will respond later today, that's too much of an overload this early in the morning.

[Blake Belladonna]

Am I the only one that can't see that interaction as TvT no matter how hard I try?

[Blake Belladonna]

It feels really off to me how Something_Smart seems to be going nowhere in this exchange, and the way Kagami ended it makes the whole thing feel staged.

[Blake Belladonna]

I am quite grounded in reality, thank you.

[Blake Belladonna]

Hmmmmmmmmmmmm.

We shall see.

[Blake Belladonna]

It's a gamestate read, Kagami.

I've actually done fairly little to read LLD directly, but the way the game has progressed to this point is incongruent with LLD being scum. It is far more congruent with you being scum, especially with the posturing you've been doing on the last page. It gives me the impression that you're looking to shift your strategy to a more neutral stance, which doesn't fit with your previous actions nor what the game looks like FYPOV.

The primary thing I'm curious about is what that exchange itself signifies. I can see it being theater and pure posturing, both of which imply different partners.

[Blake Belladonna]

What is the "posturing" I've done on the last page? What have I done that does not fit the game from my point of view? What have I done that is congruent with my being scum?

Okay, here's ultimately what I'm thinking regarding this game.

First, I decided that I'm not going to read back through days one and two in their entirety. I firmly believe that the content there is far more likely to be raw noise over relevant content, especially since I simultaneously believe that what's going on today is very likely going to be enough to pick out what exactly scum are looking to do with this endgame.

Second, I firmly believe that all five of you are competent enough at mafia to at least have an idea for how to end the game in a win as scum in this game, even against the other three players (not counting my own slot, Cyan) still alive. This is slightly harder to just accept for any other slot since my predecessor was clearly newer at the game, but FMPOV any list of two players in this endgame is more than capable enough of having a set plan for how to handle this MyLo, especially since it's very obvious just by the setup that the night two kills were both scum kills. It's simply ridiculous to think that the scumteam are playing in a way that isn't likely to give them a win. This already gives a level of focus to the game that allows how people are playing the endgame to be readable.

I find it very hard to believe that an LLD+(S_S/Kagami) team is possible since then this immediate LLD piledrive wagon doesn't make any sense as a play in MyLo.
Implosion/Hitogoroshi is not a team because just hammering LLD when she was at L-1 is a simple enough endgame to win even in the worst case scenario, and I fully believe that they would've taken that when given the opportunity.

This by necessity means that either both Something_Smart and Kagami is scum, or the scumteam is {LLD/S_S/Kagami} + {Implosion/hitogoroshi}.

I still believe that the recent Kagami + Something_Smart engagement flowed strangely enough to have scum influence within it.
I noticed a few small details that pinged me when I looked through the last couple pages (primarily Hitogoroshi's, if I remember correctly). I remember not liking how Hitogoroshi handled Kagami specifically today.

When I specifically look at who appears to have a set plan in place for how to end the game, Kagami shoots right up to the top of the list.

a) She specifically created a situation where LLD is by far the most likely scum candidate by standard wagon logic, then specifically argued for that being the case.
b) She specifically called LLD scum for picking Rose instead of Gun, and her logic here contradicts this, which was subsequently dropped completely.
c) Her posting regarding the Pine wagon is incongruent with her play today. Her stance for most of the day has been somewhere in the realm of passive observing and passive approving, and she only really pushes against it at all towards the very end despite, as I noted above, already having set up the thought process to realize something was up already. It simply makes no sense to me that a town Kagami would approach day two that passively, say things like this, then start the day by hard pushing both slots that were pushing the Pine wagon through.

When you combine the above three, the picture you come to is that Kagami allowed the wagon on the only town Gun to go through while setting up LLD as the game winning mislynch, then directly pushing through with it when given the opportunity. She's gone out of her way multiple times to say that LLD is by far her biggest scumread or objectively the correct lynch, yet her instinct when both Hitogoroshi and Implosion make their first appearances after I joined the game is to start humoring other scumteams potentially existing. This is even without going into this post, which... I don't understand the point behind it being made in the first place? I don't see a connection to any of her other posts made afterwards, nor how it (or really even her overall tone and thoughts here) fits her thought process that the scumteam is just LLD + Hitogoroshi.

There's simply too much I find bizarre about how she's playing this game.

As for her partner, I'm leaning hitogoroshi at the moment, although that's predominantly because of the above gutpings I had on his posting, combined with how Kagami appears to have been trying to push Implosion to be the one to hammer LLD (which prepares for the worst case scenario of a no kill night three). I could see a Kagami + Hitogoroshi team not hammering LLD immediately for specifically the purpose of having Implosion take the fall of being the hammer vote to make a potential 5p LyLo much safer.

That said, I'm not entirely convinced on that team. I still think Something_Smart makes a bit more sense in the 'raw planning' department of this game since it's much easier to force the game to go this direction if both scum specifically push for it, but I haven't even looked at the night two kills to confirm or deny that this specific scumteam pushes for this game. I'm somewhat assuming that the scumteam were more concerned with not hitting roses (since night 2 rose, to me, would be something I'd expect to be commonly picked) over deciding on the correct endgame, since the road to endgame is significantly harder with a full mislynch to spare than from MyLo.

(And for clarity, I'm fully assuming that scum do not have an extra gunshot tonight, I expect that either one picked a rose to foil vigs, or both vigs picked night one or night two guns.)

[Blake Belladonna]

VOTE: Kagami

I'm aware this is pointless by now, but I'm making a statement for the moment.

I will be around again before deadline.

[Blake Belladonna]

Actually, I think this reaction test isn't needed.

I've felt that implosion wasn't a strong contender for an LLD-buddy and hito plainly isn't by this point, so it's not entirely useful to check how people respond to the new L-1. It's close enough to deadline that I believe it will be less likely to contain anything worthwhile tomorrow in the case that LLD is legitimately scum.

I'm sorry, but I do still believe that Kagami was the scum in this 1v1 and at this point I'm just hoping I was wrong.

VOTE: Lady Lambdadelta

[Blake Belladonna]

Interesting.

[Blake Belladonna]

My reads entirely depend on how people approach the day, SS.

I'll go into what I'm thinking when everybody has checked in.

[Blake Belladonna]

Why are you leaning scum on hito here, implosion?

[Blake Belladonna]

Another question implosion, why do you feel different than you did in Coalition?

[Blake Belladonna]

Something_Smart, what exactly am I missing here?

I'm legitimately struggling to see how the last scum isn't just implosion here.

[Blake Belladonna]

My case on implosion isn't as much why he's scum as much as why you and hito don't make sense as partners barring an explanation for why N2, D3, and N3 went exactly the way it did for one of those teams.

I just don't see it.

[Blake Belladonna]

Hi, I'm still around.

I promise I will have more here tomorrow. I've been trying to mull over how I want to present my thoughts here, and I guess I ended up procrastinating instead.

The general tl;dr is that I'm not convinced hitogoroshi has to bus when he did, as we as both scum specifically needing to go out of their way to lynch an unCCed town gun. Both plays feel unnecessarily sloppy and I need those two answered to be able to see hito as scum in this scenario.

[Blake Belladonna]

Oh dear.

If you think meta reading Something_Smart is painful, you'd probably be absolutely miserable trying to read mine.

[Blake Belladonna]

- Obviously, LLD was bussed at some point. It makes a whole lot more sense for it to be on D3, after she was already almost confirmed scum from three townies' POVs, than on D2, when an LLD lynch would have shut down the Pine wagon for good.

I think it's a lot more relevant to think of this in terms of "Early day three", "Late day three," or "Not at all," since that ultimately makes more sense to look at than the actions of day two. This is with me knowing that there was a brief LLD wagon towards the start of the day there, which is particularly interesting in implosion's case, since it gives a good chunk of information based on how he went about the rest of the game from that point.

The biggest thing that would impact it for me, which is also sadly something I would have difficulty answering by myself, is what type of plan LLD would have for endgame in this specific scenario. Aiming for a lynch on a confirmable town is inherently risky by its own right, and it's important to note what kind of prerequisite conditions have to be met for that to be a worthwhile risk to take. It's fairly clear to me that she had taken into account being lynched for it the day after based on how she handled day three, so it's probable that the scumteam either had few options that lead them to a victory (if not only the one), or it was the simplest option they had.

With this in mind, the biggest key to me for sorting hito as either alignment once and for all is whether he necessarily had to push the game towards both specific lynches D2 and D3.

[Blake Belladonna]

- The way hito played around Pine obviously has a lot of scum equity, and I can imagine LLD telling him that he can hammer and she'll take the fall for the wagon. Implosion, if scum, would have probably been angling for towncred off of defending him. Had he gone that route, he could also have been shielded from TMI accusations by the fact that I was defending Pine even more. But 580 makes absolutely no sense from the "defend the mislynch for towncred" angle, and it also makes no sense if you assume that implosion saw the wagon failing and wanted to make sure it went through, because he never even voted Pine.

I'd expect that the second biggest priority after getting that lynch pushed through would be to make sure that the second scum wouldn't get lynched for it. The problem is, I can easily see that applying to both slots; implosion for his mostly posturing-type play throughout the day (especially around Pine, who he loosely was suspicious of, but never pulled the trigger) and hitogoroshi for his hesitance in voting the slot despite supporting it.

This is further exacerbated by the fact that I don't feel either are necessarily better on day three, sadly. I did have a glance at implosion's ISO, and I can quite easily see a case being made for him specifically looking to lynch hitogoroshi today for the win while also giving enough room to allow a day three victory with a Kagami lynch. A game where the scumteam make plays as risky as they have this game requires planning and setting up a favorable endgame to win with, and I believe implosion has done more to fit into that mold than hitogoroshi did, despite hitogoroshi having the more scummy 'actions' of the two.

[Blake Belladonna]

- The scumteam was LLD/?. They decided they'd take a N1 gun and a N2 gun. Which player takes which is irrelevant, except that the N2 gun needs to, you know, survive to N2. Now I don't know how strong implosion's scumgame is overall, but I know that in his most recent scumgame he was lynched D2, so I would expect their selections to be reversed. And he was quick to bus in that game, which would not square with him holding out so long on D3 as LLD's partner, even though it was clear LLD knew she was going down.

I'd just like to note that this can potentially be observed from another angle.

If LLD was the primary wagon at the start of day two with someone who wasn't entirely confident in securing two mislynches by themselves, would it not suddenly make sense for LLD to be willing to risk a play like that? In this specific scenario, with Pine having lockscummed her and having a vigilante shot if he isn't lynched that day, it would be very important to secure the other slot's spot in the endgame as much as possible.

This obviously still applies regardless of who the second scum is, but it's more pressing in this case assuming that the suggested implication is that implosion is a weaker scum player than hitogoroshi is.

[Blake Belladonna]

Oh dear.

If you think meta reading Something_Smart is painful, you'd probably be absolutely miserable trying to read mine.

let me tell you: even though your Kagami read was obviously hella wrong, the fact you and Kagami was the only sensible scum pairing for either of you and your entrance basically nuked it from orbit was actually what broke the game open. tbh an incredible proof of my thesis that being engaged and making hard commitments is more important than being right

Hito, why did you make this post? This feels like a weird thing to say in this situation.

[Blake Belladonna]

I guess this game mostly depends on whether I'm willing to blind trust my gut on implosion when I've already been incorrect once or whether I'm willing to trust that the only other slot I think is town has a good enough idea of where the game sits to have higher odds of being correct than I am.

Admittedly I'm leaning towards the latter if only because I even came into this game knowing that I was going to struggle to get confident reads from the start, but at the same time, implosion is the slot that keeps pinging me as the one with an agenda.

[Blake Belladonna]

Oh.

My meta comment was just a simple truth. I have no scumgames on this account and my main account plays in a far more chaotic manner that is noisy and hyperposty enough that I imagine it would be very difficult to get anything specific from it without already having an in-game basis to work from. It's probably very telling how rare it is that people read me using meta until they've seen me as both alignments for exactly that reason.

[Blake Belladonna]

Okay, I've made my choice.

Ultimately, what it comes down to is that I can see far more scenarios where implosion is scum than hitogoroshi.

I believe the Kagami kill makes more sense from implosion, it's harder to reconcile hitogoroshi's actions around the lynches over the past couple of days, and I believe that hitogoroshi has ultimately been more town than implosion throughout the game since my initial entrance into it.

If this is correct, I'm glad I managed to make up for my play day three at least. If not, then congrats on successfully pocketing me, hito. Either way, this is a learning experience for me and I'm glad i got the chance to try my hand in a game like this.

VOTE: Implosion

[Blake Belladonna]

Do you need anything from me specifically SS?

[Blake Belladonna]

I find it likely that a scum posturing onto that wagon will need to pull the trigger on it, but I also believe that it would be far more likely for scum to be on the wagon for longer than just waiting for the hammer vote. It's a bit dissonant to specifically wait after already showing interest in lynching Pine, while appearances doesn't really matter for town in the same way. It's a similar reason to why I think that after LLD was trapped like she was, it makes more sense to pull the trigger on her immediately instead of waiting awkwardly for people to spew information that can potentially clear them in MyLo.

I find it easier to believe that he legitimately had to think about it rather than take that path as scum.

[Blake Belladonna]

I really hope you're telling the truth, hito.