Mini 2079 - Guns & Roses [Game Over]

[Something_Smart]

I need to convince S_S... or Cyan, I guess if I'm somehow wrong about Cyan being scum which I doubt I am, but just speaking to S_S and S_S being scum makes our win chance zero sooooooooooooooooo

Right now you need to convince hito and implosion to wagon cyan or Kagami with you. I'll never be moving my vote if that doesn't happen.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

I need to convince S_S... or Cyan, I guess if I'm somehow wrong about Cyan being scum which I doubt I am, but just speaking to S_S and S_S being scum makes our win chance zero sooooooooooooooooo

Right now you need to convince hito and implosion to wagon cyan or Kagami with you. I'll never be moving my vote if that doesn't happen.

I'm currently wanting to lynch Kagami obviously, I just want to take my time. If you are town we need all the townies on the wagon to succeed ANYWAY so it doesnt matter to me what order things come in.

[Something_Smart]

However, it does matter to me, because those votes provide useful information, and the game is obviously not nearly as solved from my POV as it is from yours.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

However, it does matter to me, because those votes provide useful information, and the game is obviously not nearly as solved from my POV as it is from yours.

Understandable, I suppose.

[Kagami]

This is a message for Implosion, S_S, and Cyan, if he can be bothered to show up.

Spoiler: No scum allowed

Ok folks,

I think you're likely town, though I'm not really sure since the NKs kind of point toward one you, but that doesn't really matter. Even if Hito is town here, he's doing everything in his power to help out the scumteam, and I doubt we can beat scum + honorary scum tomorrow. Thus I encourage you all to join team sanity. First step towards membership is to start posting, because only being able to interact with scum makes me sad.

Let's review the gamestate:

Firstly, LLD is obviously scum. By virtue of the initial wagon, there is necessarily scum in {S_S, cyan, LLD}. I continue to be of the mind that the Pine lynch just doesn't happen without substantial scum support, hence why I didn't really have any fear of S_S + cyan and added my vote. I have no idea why you aren't adding your vote to the pile, Implosion; it looks like the scum agenda is to sow enough doubt that town can't put together a unanimous vote.

Now, for Hito. Firstly, his iso is the most anti-town thing you'll ever read. If he were town, the only vote he's placed on a potential scum is the implosion vote in 150. He hammers both wagons on players who really did nothing wrong. He hammers xyzzy with an "I'm off!" and then conspiciously does the same to pine, but where on the xyzzy lynch we probably actually wasn't likely to get to the thread before deadline in the pine lynch is that there's a full 24 hours left. Why be "goodnight, fam" with a freaking hammer? Was he going into hibernation? There was a claim that can be sorted out, and there was almost certainly the ability to extend the day. Hito doesn't pursue any of that, he wants pine dead and fast.

He's tried to draw equivalences between himself and other members of the wagon which are completely absurd since the other members of the wagon ~didn't hammer~. Even pops L-1 vote, which was profoundly stupid, was not a hammer. Hammering is very different from ordinary voting, because it causes the player to become dead, which is bad if that player is town, and worse still if that player is shortly to be confirmed town. Unless you're scum, then hammering confirmed town is pretty great.

Now he's dragging the day out while trying to sow doubt on the towniness of those voting LLD. While protecting her, he's simultaneously trying to tie my alignment to hers, which makes absolutely no sense if he's town. "How did you KNOW that LLD wasn't N1 Gun, anyway?" is a particularly transparent instance of this.

So plz implosion specifically, come in here and vote LLD and/or chat. If one of you guys is concerned about my alignment, I'd be happy to address those concerns while deriding your poor judgment.

[Kagami]

@FG: Please prod cyan and begin countdown to replace

[hitogoroshi]

Zero chance implies I'm infallible Hito, and I'm not, but I admit that I don't exactly understand the purpose of your question. You want me to argue for something I don't remotely believe to be true, even though there's possibility? Sure.

eh, more just like I wanted to see your thought process a little more on it since I think that Cyan being the second vote = it's not worth instant dismissal. If you're still not confident for other reasons, great that's all I need to know. Mostly just residual paranoia when I see you and Kagami both gearing up for 1v1 and s_s and Cyan not posting. thank you for that post.

Right now you need to convince hito and implosion to wagon cyan or Kagami with you. I'll never be moving my vote if that doesn't happen.

well yeah dude. and obviously I will hammer LLD at deadline if votes are frozen like this forever. It's 4:2 so every townie needs to be on the wagon unless there's a bus. This is super duper not what I am looking for. Between the players in this game, who do you think are the mafia and why? Are there pairings you find impossible? I know you know how to post s_s! You did it a lot the first two days!

Firstly, LLD is obviously scum. By virtue of the initial wagon, there is necessarily scum in {S_S, cyan, LLD}. I continue to be of the mind that the Pine lynch just doesn't happen without substantial scum support, hence why I didn't really have any fear of S_S + cyan and added my vote.

What is the word "hence" supposed to mean here given that Cyan was also on the Pine wagon

Now he's dragging the day out while trying to sow doubt on the towniness of those voting LLD. While protecting her, he's simultaneously trying to tie my alignment to hers, which makes absolutely no sense if he's town. "How did you KNOW that LLD wasn't N1 Gun, anyway?" is a particularly transparent instance of this.

what the fuck do you mean "tying your alignment to hers". The point I am making is that the mafia know that LLD is a night 1 rose if they shoot her and the kill doesn't work. However, rather than immediately call you scum for it, I decided to be a big brain boy and ask you why you thought that first, in case there was something I was missing. Instead it signified the end of you having good faith discussions with me and appealing directly to implo to just hammer LLD. This to me makes it considerably more suspicious, but hey, maybe I'm still missing something. So, one more time: you replacing it to a mafia slot that shot and failed to kill LLD N1 is one reason that you'd know LLD isn't a N1 gun. Is there another explanation?

[Kagami]

Because two people didn't die night 1?

I didn't "KNOW" she's not N1 gun, obviously, but it was a pretty good bet she wasn't. Just like every question you've asked me "in good faith," you've added nonsense to it in order to posture aggressively.

[Kagami]

You apparently made this post believing that the choices were made pre-alignment. It seems weird to single out LLD specifically for playstyle/temperament then, when I would think this is kind of a mark against every player who doesn't expect to be vigged - so me, LLD, probably implo. And actually, how did you KNOW that LLD wasn't N1 Gun, anyway?

I have reviewed and come to the conclusion that maybe, just maybe, you have absolutely no idea how this setup works, since none of this really makes sense (especially with your clarification).

In this setup, GUN is a role that is like suicide bomber, except you get to keep your voice, vote, and your identity doesn't get revealed. I.e, it is an amazing and incredibly powerful role.

ROSE is garbage. It is a much, much, much worse 1-shot bulletproof, which is already a mediocre role. You pick rose because you're not confident in your scumhunting, because you're really afraid of being NKed N1, or because, well, someone has to do it. This is not to dodge a vig, unless there was some time pre-game where players could coordinate choices, and unless you are the god of scumhunters, you shouldn't expect to dodge a scum kill with this.

I haven't bothered to do the roll-out to sort out the nash equilibrium on role choice, but my guess would be you want to pick some kind of rose about 35% as town, and scum picks double gun most of the time.

At the time I remarked about LLD not being N1 gun, I hadn't fully digested the setup, but it was pretty clear that picking gun was better than rose and that an 8 rose town was highly irregular. Of all the players I expected to prefer being able to killing anyone they like to a small chance to dodge a NK, LLD stuck out in my mind as exceptionally unlikely to go for the rose. I realized much later that anyone who would be especially likely to choose gun as town was substantially more likely to be scum, and that this really should have been sussed out D1.

The only difference that getting alignment first really makes is that it more or less guarantees that scum go double gun. I was initially entertaining cyan as more of a policy lynch than anything and thought the pine wagon was unwarranted, but would not have felt if I had been aware there was probably only one mislynch available.

[FakeGod]

Blake Belladonna replaces cyanjet.

[Blake Belladonna]

UNVOTE: Lady Lambdadelta

Good evening, everyone.

I will catch up in the morning, I promise. In the meantime, a general synopsis of the game and any particular relevant information would be appreciated, since it will make it much easier for me to get a grasp on the game.

[Ankamius]

I will go into one thing off the bat while I'm thinking about it, however.

Kagami, how sure are you that LLD is scum? Can you point me directly to why you believe so, or if you haven't explained it yet, explain it for me? This is important to my read on you this game.

[Blake Belladonna]

I will go into one thing off the bat while I'm thinking about it, however.

Kagami, how sure are you that LLD is scum? Can you point me directly to why you believe so, or if you haven't explained it yet, explain it for me? This is important to my read on you this game.

That didn't take long.

This was an open alt anyways, so oh well.

[Blake Belladonna]

Actually, I would appreciate a summary if Implosion's and Hitogoroshi's thoughts too.

Those three things should be enough to give me a rough idea of what's going on.

[Kagami]

I will go into one thing off the bat while I'm thinking about it, however.

Kagami, how sure are you that LLD is scum? Can you point me directly to why you believe so, or if you haven't explained it yet, explain it for me? This is important to my read on you this game.

Right now, ~96% sure she's scum. The only way she isn't is if both your slot and S_S are scum, which seems really farfetched.

At daystart, I had her as a primary scum candidate with hito for bullying for the pine lynch. Later in the day I realized that her being likely to pick gun was of note, but that was already made irrelevant after your slot's vote.

[Something_Smart]

Ank! \o/

Hopefully you can help me quell what doubts I have about your slot. I'm giving you permission to Amished here; read your predecessor's last post and tell me that isn't cringe-worthy.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Kagami's analysis should frighten anyone who is town and reading it, because it's deliberately misleading and designed to power tunnel on me for one last lynch.

The concept that I would take a N1 gun and shoot is an easy thing to speak to because normally in games I love to take vigs, but the analysis of the game's structure is one that if town gets overly greedy, they can easily lose a very winnable game. I was heading into a game half filled with players I normally expect to take a gun and half a list of players I knew nothing about and were complete unknowns.

What's the more important choice? To take a gun in a game filled with them and potentially lose as town implodes?

or to take a rose and increase the likelyhood of town's victory even if it means I get to have less fun?

The odds of town win increase dramatically in my opinion as the number of town roses increases. There wasn't really a choice in my opinion.

And Kagami's logic here is designed as a trap. It's meant to laser focus on me not taking a gun when other players (Hito, Implo) have similar gun toting streaks. Why she never went in on those two should be obvious. It would be far harder than to push on me, because I'd never break or fall for it and I was the leader yesterday.

S_S, what are your thoughts on that?

[Blake Belladonna]

At daystart, I had her as a primary scum candidate with hito for bullying for the pine lynch.

How much of your reason for putting her at L-1 because of this point by itself?

[Kagami]

Not that much? At the time I put my L-1 down, she was already nearly-confirmed scum.

[Something_Smart]

S_S, what are your thoughts on that?

To my knowledge, no other player here has as much of a reputation for aggression as you do.

No other player here has demonstrated as much aggression and confidence in their reads as you have.

In addition, your justification for picking rose basically implies that you have the ability to use an extra level of logic that nobody else can, because they're all gonna pick guns and you have to clean up the mess.

(I get that this may be a superrationality situation, but you still didn't bring that up as part of your reasoning, so it really doesn't help.)

[Something_Smart]

well yeah dude. and obviously I will hammer LLD at deadline if votes are frozen like this forever. It's 4:2 so every townie needs to be on the wagon unless there's a bus. This is super duper not what I am looking for. Between the players in this game, who do you think are the mafia and why? Are there pairings you find impossible? I know you know how to post s_s! You did it a lot the first two days!

Here's the thing, the ball's not in my court at the moment. I made my vote at MYLO, and mechanics tell me it was very likely correct.

If LLD is lynched and flips scum, either Kagami or I probably dies tonight (maybe Ank, though when your post was written it was still cyanlurk), and you have to fight for your life against implosion. I have no reason to try to work this out now, unless I think I'll be better at it than Kagami, which I won't.

If Ank or Kagami is somehow lynched and flips scum, obviously the other is the partner.

[Blake Belladonna]

I think you're not going to like what I have to say about this game, Something_Smart.

[Blake Belladonna]

Namely, that I think Kagami is much more likely to be scum this game than Lady Lambdadelta is.

[Something_Smart]

Do you think it's me/Kagami? Or do you think scum were too scared to hammer?

[Blake Belladonna]

I think you + Kagami is the simplest answer, yes.

I don't necessarily believe that the simplest answer is the correct one. I haven't done enough legwork to determine what exactly scum have been looking to do this game, Kagami's actions in particular just stood out to me.