Undertale Semi-Open 1.1 - Snowdin Snowdown

[Rakan]

HURT: chennis

Already softclaimed as not pr, so bye.

I dont care about statistics im confident we can get four townies spared

With no flips, I'm not- I think Neutral is our best route

[Rakan]

HURT: Ginngie

102 seems awkward to me

[Rakan]

Neutral is actually the statistically least likely to win for town I’m pretty sure

Can you explain how?

[Rakan]

Killing 3 people and sparing 2 people or killing 2 and sparing 3 people seems like the best plans to me.

ISO pops in either the game thread, the mod thread, dead thread, or setup thread from the last game. I can’t remember where I read it but that’s where it would be located

Well I'm not going to do that, if you have an argument for why it's bad you're free to explain it in this game thread. The statistics don't really matter and probably don't account for a lot of the benefits that the neutral setup gives us (a small pool of confirmed players, or knowing that the mafia is within a small pool of players, papyrus being our best pr to remain hidden for a few days (we can spare then fight for the first 2 days) - that being said, if we spare day 1 and then fight day 2, it lets a potential Toriel do things night 1, so that's probably the best strategy.

[Rakan]

*2-2 or 3-1, like what Elements said

We should spare day 1 and fight day 2

[Rakan]

HEAL: Elements

[Rakan]

but this seems like a repeat of his scumgame

Can you explain?

[Rakan]

so far nymph and gingie are on my radar for awkward entrances

towny mindmeld

I don't see how Nymph can be considered awkward from her posting so far, I don't agree with this, so weird "mindmeld" in my opinion

[Rakan]

so far nymph and gingie are on my radar for awkward entrances

towny mindmeld

I don't see how Nymph can be considered awkward from her posting so far, I don't agree with this, so weird "mindmeld" in my opinion

"I disagree so it's bad"

boi

OK. If you want something more substantive, you'll need to explain why you think Nymph's early posts were awkward then.

[Rakan]

noncommittal in a towny way

How does that compare to being noncommittal in a scummy way?

[Rakan]

It's not necessarily bad to spare scummy players in the neutral ending, while yes mafia get an extra kill it also greatly narrows down where the mafia is, and still provides us with a clear that mafia probably don't kill if we can lynch correctly. Also, if they're town, that's a player we would have lynched that we now don't have to

[Rakan]

Nymph isnt a slot i particularly have a lean on

Generally I'm a very hard slot to read.

Which means you're a good choice for a slot to spare

IMO we shouldn't spare people we know are town, since on the neutral route we get told how many scum are within a group of people

[Rakan]

Wouldn’t getting the information from a d1 flip and then sparing after that be better? At least I think so.

I said sparing is better because it lets Toriel use her night action night 1 and remain hidden, if she were the pr. It's not really a big deal, but it's there.

[Rakan]

Power role should stay hidden no matter what, by the way. It's actually counter-productive for us to spare the power role in the neutral route, since they are self confirming, and they can be killed anyway.

[Rakan]

I think numbers wise, we need to spare 3 and kill 1, otherwise we risk losing to a double mafia kill

[Rakan]

I agreed with their proposed strategies early

Truthfully I just skimmed the start then started thinking about what was going on later and saw that Elements was saying pretty much the same thing, so I healed him

[Rakan]

And I hadn't thought of this reasoning yet:

IMO we shouldn't spare people we know are town, since on the neutral route we get told how many scum are within a group of people

But it's fine, elements would be a fine person to spare to determine the alignment of

And before you say: "We should kill him so we get his flip" - we may only be killing one person here before the event if we're doing neutral route

[Rakan]

I don't like the pacifist route in particular since it seems there's a high chance for failure and little information

[Rakan]

Why can't we do 2-2 is there a major dif to 3-1 vs 2-2

Alright let me explain this

The risk is that if mafia end up in the spared group, they get to kill two people that night.

Of course, there are people who are arguing that we can successfully spare 4 town, and the risk for us not being able to do that is we get put into a state where we have to name the mafia with no information or instantly lose.

Anyway, this happens night 4, and mafia will have killed, presumably, 3 people during the night. If we kill 2 people as well, then there are 6 players remaining alive. If we have killed no mafia, and mafia is spared, then we lose because that instantly puts us to 4 alive.

If we instead spare 3 then that leaves 7 players alive, and we get put into a situation where we know how many mafia are in 1 group of 3, and by extension how many are in the other group of 2-3

[Rakan]

No

We have to understand the mechanics to understand what we're doing today.

I just outlined how neutral path 3-1 is probably our best chance of winning because it allows us to group up mafia into sections

[Rakan]

Spoiler: Mechanics NAI

I like to think sparing 1 person and killing 3 people would be best to get as many confirmed people as possible.

Kills are flips and with 1 person, it's impossible for scum to win through sparing, and 1 person turns into a cop shot for day reveal.

If you have more than 1 member in the spare PT, then you no longer have a confirmed alignment.

That's too many kills, so if we don't kill mafia within 3 lynches we lose

[Rakan]

And we have low info to go off of when making those kills

If we kill 1 spare 3, the resulting gamestate has a lot of info to inform our decisions

[Rakan]

i'll try to make sense of it in the morning lmfao

rakan who you staring at rn

To kill? Oversoul.

Though I do still have an attachment to going spare-kill-spare-spare

I'm thinking this game plan up as I go along, I'm thinking it is best to put people we trust in the 3 spares after all, since both sides are essentially revealed (if you know 1 scum is in 3 people, you know 1 is in the other 2)

[Rakan]

So I never played this mode before so can y'all decide how we approach this and let me know what we do mechanically?

I'd love if somebody talked about the neutral route with me

[Rakan]

Overblown read on elements, acting like they're super towny (they're not), they don't really care for what's going on in the middle (the mechanics talk) but they're contrarian to the neutral route because "statistics" (fyi I haven't looked at the first game so I don't know if the neutral route is even the same here, I know stuff was changed), then weak accusations like rolefishing, and then scummy role soft when a little bit of pressure is applied to him (and you're not clever with that)

[Rakan]

I didn't realize I could both be hurting and healing somebody

HURT: Oversoul

[Rakan]

Gingie, these are the posts that show Neutral is really not desirable and something that the game designers themselves have been struggling with. Obviously, some changes have been made in terms of the power roles available for this game and it was discovered that Genocide/Pacifist are really not that far off from one another in terms of EV.

Can you quote where she says it has the lowest win %?

[Rakan]

[/quote]

I'm obvtown because nothing I'm doing is to a scum agenda, let alone an Oversoul scum agenda?

Doing nothing doesn't make you look like town

There's no explicit percentage given because it is so variable, but if you read SS's posts two out of the 3 neutral options almost guarantee town loss if they flub on a scum Kill.
I will say that 2-2 seems like the worst possible option to choose because it opens town up to losing two fold - once on the double scum in spare and once on a scum in spare with no scum kill (which is made more likely by the fact that there is a scum in the spare).

But we get to choose which neutral option to use, yet you applied a broad brushstroke "neutral is bad" and said it was because of statistics.

What route do you want to go for?

[Rakan]

genocide is just vanilla though and poisoner is the worst pr in bad hands even if we have him

I think if we have poisoner theyre best off claiming and getting spared

This is where I'm at right now

[Rakan]

2. Yes... because 2 out of the 3 are bad so the path is more bad

No, because we don't have to take those 2. It's not random chance, we get to choose.

[Rakan]

I want to go Genocide.

Yeah, no. Here's what's going to happen:

You tell us if your post 188 being written in comic sans is you claiming to be the power role sans

If it's not, you're getting lynched for that. If it is, we wait to see if anybody counterclaims (if somebody does, then you die) and then if nobody does our best move is, ironically, to go for either neutral or pacifist after sparing you.

And if you are sans, here's where you went wrong:

1) Your soft was so obvious that it wasn't a soft but was instead a claim (remember, there are 2 mafia so they're more likely to spot it than a normal townie). In reality, your pr is bad and your pr in your hands is BAD
2) Arguing against the perfectly viable neutral strategy just because you wanted genocide is, in fact, an agenda, and I believe I was correct in 'catching on' that you were playing to an agenda
3) Stop trying to be clever

By the way, I don't want you to have the opportunity to use your power role to kill somebody anyway - though you'd die before then - because I think you are below average and unwilling to listen to others in your selection, and I am playing to win this game.

[Rakan]

Stop playing mechanics start playing mafia zzz

This shit helps nobody with alignment solving and loses us the game

Play it by ear pls

@Elements
OverSoul is now the leading wagon, now if you could explain why you chose to heal oversoul, that'd be great because you're interactions with Soul are softball questions and I can't find why you townread the slot.

@wisdom
you may scum read me but you also scumread Soul. Will you join or is your read on me as scum stronger than your read on Soul

@Chemist, Nymph and Chenn
You've yet to interact with Soul in any way this game, give us something to work with here

Ur caring way too much about the os slot

weird trajectory

[Rakan]

We're either fighting or sparing Oversoul today.

[Rakan]

I don't think it's worth discussing other reads before the mafia nightkill. Why do you think I should discuss other reads?

I'm willing to talk mechanics, why we should or shouldn't pick neutral.

As for Oversoul: He's either a pr and will die tonight if we don't spare him, or he's fake softing and should be killed for that

[Rakan]

We're either fighting or sparing Oversoul today.

This is really bad. We're only at page 10 and you want to just focus one person because of a crumb?

Yes

[Rakan]

I don't think it's worth discussing other reads before the mafia nightkill. Why do you think I should discuss other reads?

I'm willing to talk mechanics, why we should or shouldn't pick neutral.

As for Oversoul: He's either a pr and will die tonight if we don't spare him, or he's fake softing and should be killed for that

“They might be a PR, lets lynch them”

Dude first of all it should be common sense not to PR hunt the only fucking PR and second, it’s completely illogical to think someone may be a PR, and then drive that lynch

If they're a pr we won't lynch him, we'll spare him

[Rakan]

Why are people saying I'm tunneling? He hard softed pr, he's either mafia or actually pr, and we should react appropriately. That's not tunneling...

[Rakan]

i feel like there's a real chance he's town not PR

In which case we should probably lynch him anyway

[Rakan]

Why is Rakan super aggro

Who are you actually Rakan

Why don't you ask your temporal awareness?

[Rakan]

What I don't understand is why we let blatantly anti-town fly under the guise of "oh he could be town"

Furthermore he's claiming to be the pr from the genocide run which has very little support from players here IMO, even if he were that pr

What are the upsides to not focus on him today?

like tbf right now im not feeling scumvibes from anyone that's posting, even gingie got better after posting
Nacho and mastina need to do things before i declare them poe scum

the thing is - we're going to hard latch onto the first person we see as scummy as scum and not re-evaluate w/o flips

so

What are you talking about?

[Rakan]

I tr Wisdom and Xayah

----

I think someone asked me a question at one point. Could they repeat it plz.

Well, what do you have to say about this:

He asked pointless and easy questions

He is asking pointless and easy questions

He doesnt do that as town

[Rakan]

Are you sure you're not overestimating your own difference in tone? Other people don't know you as well as you do, just saying

[Rakan]

So I never played this mode before so can y'all decide how we approach this and let me know what we do mechanically?

I'd love if somebody talked about the neutral route with me

I'm in favor of going 2-2. 3 spares is not enough flips to be useful - not particularly different from the pacifist route if we go there and I guarantee we can spare two people and not hit scum/hit scum with two lynches (and if we can't, we were prolly gonna lose no matter how we played).

I've also come around to Ginngie and Nymph town. Ginngie high posts spoke to my soul and Nymph's mechanics posts felt like a genuine lost.

If we go 2-2 without lynching mafia, but have mafia in the spared group, then we lose

[Rakan]

So I think we should go 3-1, with the 3 being the spares, unless we lynch mafia with our first lynch

[Rakan]

There are a lot of people I'd be willing to spare today (with the train of thought that town =- spare)

Wisdom, Xayah, Nymph, maybe ginngie and, maybe nacho - oh and myself

Chemist and chennis are below my own confidence threshhold for people I want to spare and I don't want to do that, do people have a good argument for why we should do that?

Thoughts?

[Rakan]

Id lynch xayah if we had to lynch

Why Xayah?

[Rakan]

sparing rakan is prolly in scums gameplan

Uh, explain?

[Rakan]

HEAL: Rakan

neutral route please
Leaning town on Nacho for his tirade
Leaning town on Chemist

My bottom 2 reads are mastina and Oversoul

Make oversoul claim on or by day 3 and then lynch him

[Rakan]

Honestly I wouldn't call it a game throw

Literally everyone except for Chemist had the wool pulled over their eyes

No, I said we needed to get claims and either lynch or spare him day 1, depending on whether somebody else was the town power role.

I think I also talked about the importance of playing optimally due to the setups mechanics - you guys missed a cop check on night 2 because you spared twice just because