Mini Theme 2161: Undertale C Open - Chara's Folly
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Hectic Mad Hatter
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Hectic Mad Hatter
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Hectic Mad Hatter
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Hectic Mad Hatter
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Hectic Mad Hatter
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well, i sure as heck don't know the answer to that, and i don't expect you to either. but the funny thing is that we don't NEED to know the answer.
no blood or dust needs to be spilled. no one has to suffer. here's why pal.
at first glance, you see all the negatives that come with SPARING. you see no investigations, you see thewincon, you panic. it's natural. but you gotta weigh up the positives to really see what's on offer here.Chara
if we go for the SPARE route, we get:
- mathematically great odds for the first three spares. a 9/12, a 7/10, and a 5/7 (assuming we hit town). then we have a 3/5 to win the game.
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- we can always transition into a respectable neutral route if desired. if there's no confident townreads on day 3, then whatever, we've got plan B to fall back on. but SPARING earlier is a lot better than SPARING later. the numbers are on our side.
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- mafia are rarely the top townreads in games. they love sticking around near the null/neutral line. plus, we can utilise the obvtown that will inevitably arise from this game, just like they do in every game of mafia. instead of abandoning them to be shot by mafia, we can SPARE them, and utilise them to win instead.
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- SPARING both mafia is very unlikely. if they were good enough to both be SPARED, we were probably not winning this game the normal way either. and it would be a poor performance from the town in terms of how towny they looked.
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- if we SPARE 1 mafia in 4, we are forced to SPARE one final player. a 3/4 which isn't too bad. then we have all the SPARED players return to the thread and get final chance to nail the SPARED mafia in the 5. at first glance this looks difficult. BUT, you need to factor in how we will have a lot of information to solve these players. they will have been alive and producing content from the start of the game. these are players that were towny enough to be SPARED in the first place, so will inevitably have a lot of content and reads from every player, including their scum partners to examine. these players should also have been continuing to talk and solve in the SPARED PT, and we will have associations with 2 of their buddies to examine. plus, some of the players in these 5 will be very obvtown so it'll be a decision that's more like a pick in 2 or 3 players that didn't town it up as hard.
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- finally, we get 2 days of juicy interactions to examine when flips. winning the game by SPARINGCharais huge for mafia, and seeing how players read and interact withCharawill be VERY telling. if we simply FIGHT and killCharaoff day 1, then mafia has no need to do anything special aroundChara, and we'll get little useful info (unlessCharais a FIGHT candidate but this is less likely).Chara
welp. that's everything i guess. think it over.
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Hectic Mad Hatter
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In post 32, redtea wrote:the custom tags are neato.
Sorry to break the fun but
i read the setup going in. Somehow I was very confident. I am no longer confident.
Is the purpose of fighting only for info? Is 0 or 4 spares the ideal??-
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Hectic Mad Hatter
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In post 78, Chara wrote:are you going to keep pretending to be my brother? i only played along last time because the rest of the monsters were so concerned with your opinion.
HURT: Hectic
<3
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Hectic Mad Hatter
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Hectic Mad Hatter
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but they're not going to be random. they're going to be consensus townreads.
finding town is a hell of a lot easier than finding scum. it's easier to spot towntells and towniness than scum ones.
also, don't ya forget that it's not the end of the world if we do SPARE a scum. we got a fallback.-
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Hectic Mad Hatter
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Hectic Mad Hatter
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-the stage?
well, that's Glyde. he's my boss.
look. he can be alittleself-obsessed and can even get jealous of himself at times
but. he has a heart of gold that guy
he doesn't want this game to turn into another mostly regular game of mafia + some investigations at the end
he really enjoys townhunting and doesn't get to do it very often at all
so yeah, i'm a little biased
but i really do believe in my arguments that it's optimal to start out with SPARING at first, and then see whether we want to continue or transition into neutral
simply based on the numbers and finding town earlier before they've been nightkilled-
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Hectic Mad Hatter
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also, people are forgetting that bad play on 4 FIGHTS (4 misFIGHTS in a row) means scum get parity and we're donezo
without any investigations at all-
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Hectic Mad Hatter
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In post 95, CantHateAPuppy wrote:i kind of really want sparing to work, but i just don't think it does
how do you figure that sparing works best in the first two days? that's also when we could spare chara and that's an autoloss. if you spare early you also increase the risk of the chara surviving
also thoughwell bud, there's naturally going to be more obvtown around early because they're not dead yet from being nightkilled ya know
plus we have good odds just statistically speaking. the numbers speak to me
heavily depends on the player that rolls it. it's a tough job to be a UTR as scumChara
but if you're worried about scum going all in for aSPARE victory in the first 2 days, that's fine, because if they don't pull it off the associations and evidence left behind fromChara's flip will be damning for themChara-
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Hectic Mad Hatter
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makes me sad but i know when i'm beat, 4 SPARES is a no go
any of ya gonna work out the numbers for 1 to 3 SPARES?
anyway, Prism town because he did the math and was accurate before catboi revealed his spreadsheets
he made the effort but showed no working or proof to try and make it look impressive or get any towncred from it
i believe catboi when he says he wouldn’t reveal the EV working if he was mafia
only because he decided to out his info right after I made a huge case on 4 SPARES, where there was some uncertainty where town would go, and it wasn’t just guaranteed to be genocide anyway-
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Hectic Mad Hatter
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yeah bud, that's honestly my main issue
hopefully we can make a 1-3 SPARE route work if the EV for that is acceptable-
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Hectic Mad Hatter
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Launchy pal, how is 120 "solely mechtalk"?
it's based on others' mechtalk but non-mech reads-
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Hectic Mad Hatter
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Hectic Mad Hatter
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Hectic Mad Hatter
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that's the post i meant to link to earlier and that's why i think catboi is town
why are you dissatisfied with my explanation?
also why are you so prickly-
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Hectic Mad Hatter
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[ah develop
i'm sending these wavelengths remotely
i'm currently in Snowdin so ISOing and rereading is a pain right now
later-
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Hectic Mad Hatter
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Hectic Mad Hatter
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Hectic Mad Hatter
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everyone's gonna come back after the marathon ends...
i can try and elaborate on my read on you though...
it's not based on meta and is an independent read... i can't remember much of your play from the hydra minigame game...
the scum-motivation for working out the odds and posting them is little due to the required effort... i would have expected some kind of proof working or grab for towncred...
the lack of it makes me think you were working it out for good faith reasons...-
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Hectic Mad Hatter
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anyway... i'm bad at reading the thread without my friends...
so when everyone comes back is when they will catchup...
when the marathon ends...-
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Hectic Mad Hatter
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Hectic Mad Hatter
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Hectic Mad Hatter
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Hectic Mad Hatter
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In post 297, Chara wrote:my first thought upon reading this post was "alright, now to try and emulate my town self that Prism is recognizing so i can keep getting townread."
Undertale S ruined me.
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Hectic Mad Hatter
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Hectic Mad Hatter
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In post 306, catboi wrote:Meh, the mopiness is annoying but I don't know that it's scummy and now that I take off the rage-goggles, even though we disagree on our approaches he seems to be making attempts to legitimately evaluate people
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Hectic Mad Hatter
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Hectic Mad Hatter
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HURT: Pooky
Tell me, do you have any reads on anyone? You haven't stated a single one all game.-
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Hectic Mad Hatter
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In post 266, redtea wrote:I gotta say it is a bad take on Hectic's part. The spreadsheets show that he wasn't baselessly echoing Prism for cred but legitimately corroborating.
Both catboi and prism are well tr'd at this point though so I suppose it doesn't really matter-
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Hectic Mad Hatter
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Hectic Mad Hatter
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Hectic Mad Hatter
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In post 320, Prism wrote:Hectic saw a much, MUCH more open/friendly Prism as town
I was intentionally waiting a little before mentioning it.-
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Hectic Mad Hatter
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In post 320, Prism wrote:The pivot to Pooky is playing it super safe and objective with choosing what to push on.-
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Hectic Mad Hatter
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His approach on me this game is vastly different to how he's ever treated me. The last ~5 games I've played with him he's scumread me. He was town in 4 of those, and scum in 1. My last game with him is the one he was scum in, and in that he mentioned in the scumchat that he knew how to manipulate me by playing to his townmeta, and proceeded to scumread me as usual... the FOOL, that won't ever work on me again.
So, this is very new to me. He doesn't even have a reason to townread me, he's doing it in a memey "Hectic is always town" way. I think there's a chance he's polarising his approach from his last scumgame so that I think he's town here, but he's overdoing it.-
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Hectic Mad Hatter
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Hectic Mad Hatter
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In post 297, Chara wrote:my first thought upon reading this post was "alright, now to try and emulate my town self that Prism is recognizing so i can keep getting townread."
Undertale S ruined me.
If it's a genuine thought Chara had (replicate its townmeta to appear town), it's one that looks scummy for obvious reasons and is a fairly normal thought to have as scum, one that scum!Chara is likely to forget about and not want to mention in-thread at all.
Secondly, it's a nuanced emotional state to fake as scum. Mostly because scum just wouldn't think of coming up with posting this in the first place, while it could easily come naturally to town.
You are absolutely correct that I should be more scared of Chara though. This is all assuming Chara is a normal player, but Chara is a player with an exceptionally strong scumgame. It'll take a lot more to make me want to SPARE it this time around.
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Hectic Mad Hatter
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In post 322, Hectic wrote:In post 320, Prism wrote:Hectic saw a much, MUCH more open/friendly Prism as town
I was intentionally waiting a little before mentioning it.-
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Hectic Mad Hatter
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Hectic Mad Hatter
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Hectic Mad Hatter
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Hectic Mad Hatter
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In post 349, Tanner wrote:making just one post for this game feels like pulling teeth. someone throw me a question or something.
pedit: ?
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Hectic Mad Hatter
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In post 380, Chara wrote:Prism, if you care for it, Your Nightmare just concluded. Hectic won this as scum. i caught him day 1 but wasn't confident enough to get him eliminated and then got killed.
it'll certainly effect my own approach this game, and as it's fairly short i thought i'd mention it to you.
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Hectic Mad Hatter
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In post 382, redtea wrote:I was criticizing your catboi read, not your Prism one.
Point is, I don't think your reason for invalidating catboi's cred is well thought out. I think the way he corroborated put them on equal ground.-
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Hectic Mad Hatter
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In post 391, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:
we are masons togetherIn post 389, redtea wrote:
what are you actually talking aboutIn post 387, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:hectic is very good as scum
but if we go the spare route it will not matter
Also, I hate that my first instinct is to unvote you after seeing this. You are strong at pocketing me...-
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Hectic Mad Hatter
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In post 396, Chara wrote:
my concern was MT's behaviour, but not in a "this looks scummy" way. rather, a "i'm concerned if you're town and locktowning someone for this" sort of way. that's why i ended the post by saying i wasn't interested in getting into a logical argument.In post 383, redtea wrote:Just a question, was the concern more about catboi's regard among the town or about MT's behavior?
pedit: i nearly voted Pooky in this post, so i'm surprised that comment makes you want to unvote.
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Hectic Mad Hatter
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Hectic Mad Hatter
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Hectic Mad Hatter
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Hectic Mad Hatter
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-of my townplay so high, that they become suspicious when I inevitably don't meet those standards. VERY clever...
But seriously, I have a very loose grasp of this game currently. My check for how much I'm into a game is if I can sort the playerlist into a readlist (everyone gets their own tier) without having to reISO or reread anyone, and I am VERY far from being able to do that right now. Pooky has inspired me to sit down and put more time into this though, so I'll be doing that tonight.-
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In post 529, Elements wrote:wow, I feel like my reads are completely the opposite to everyone elses-
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Hectic Mad Hatter
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-emoji department. Pick up the pace, Morning; it's KILL or BE KILLED in this world, and you're currently being killed... metaphorically speaking.-
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Hectic Mad Hatter
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-that i'm confident she's town. She's hard towntelling this game and I'd bet the game on her being town
(i have a towntell on her which has so far been very accurate - i'm not going to reveal what it is because it is too valuable)
HEAL: Morning Tweet-
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Hectic Mad Hatter
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-everyone in the game?
just like whatever you remember for each person. thoughts and feels if you have nothing else for people is fine
thanks, pal!-
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Hectic Mad Hatter
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Hectic Mad Hatter
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Hectic Mad Hatter
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