Mini 1080 -- txtMafia -- Game OVER

[The Fonz]

Correct. It only takes one scumheavy wagon with RF at risk to provide evidence of 'scum trying to save RF.'

[The Fonz]

Yes, but it's

the counterwagon to

your lynch

which particularly stunk.

[The Fonz]

Under no scenario would a potential scumteam want to kill you, since you'd claimed VT.

[The Fonz]

2458 is clearly and obviously untrue. Who was on RF right to deadline, Vi?

[The Fonz]

I wanted a claim because I saw him claiming sooner or later as inevitable.

[The Fonz]

And yes, his entry post was incredibly scummy- in fact I called it 'scummier than anything AH had done.' That gave me pause, but nonetheless, I would have voted AH if I thought he was a better lynch than RF.

[The Fonz]

I know, but I can't for the life of me figure out why doing wagon analysis and pointing out obvious scum connections is scummy.

[The Fonz]

You don't see how a wagon with all the likely scum on, with crap reasoning, on a townie, coming out of nowhere after you get put to L-1, looks like an effort to save you? WTF?

[The Fonz]

I pointed out scummy things where I see them. What's wrong with that?

[The Fonz]

Scum don't tend to make large bold moves to swing wagon from one townie to another. Recall that with town wagon, those on most liikely to come under scrutiny.

[The Fonz]

AV, pay attention.

[The Fonz]

Because he was the better wagon.

[The Fonz]

Because he was scummier. For all the reasons given at the time. I didn't understand the AH wagon, and in retrospect, it looks even worse.

[The Fonz]

The phrase 'laying groundwork for future lynches' come to mind? Or are you going to try to argue you only give reasons NOT to vote someone?

[The Fonz]

Because scum are usually perfectly happy to let the town drift to a default, "I don't necessarily agree with this but there's no other wagon and it's deadline' type lynch.

[The Fonz]

Dead townie, not much info created, thank you very much. Have you EVER seen a scumgroup expend that kind of effort to swing a lynch from one townie to another?

[The Fonz]

In fact, I'm betting that with that kind of effort, you're probably the roleblocker.

[The Fonz]

Because AV said he tried to kill, and didn't succeed. So either he's lying, chamber's a BP GF, or there's an RB, and occam's razor says the latter.

[The Fonz]

Also, I'm getting really tired of everyone talking to me as if somehow

I'm

obvscum.

[The Fonz]

Bussing.

[The Fonz]

Why specifically me? And Vi's doing it too. It's as if I'm being persecuted for scumhunting, and it's really frustrating.

[The Fonz]

To further elaborate on my RayFrost point, scum generally don't like to have the entire team voting together. Therefore, if they are, there's probably a big swing in the game at stake.

[The Fonz]

And now I'll turn it, but my question as to who Vi herself thinks is best lynch remains outstanding for whenever she gets back on.

[The Fonz]

Also note, both Ray and Ch seem to be pushing FtF as scummiest of the reds.

[The Fonz]

Looking through Vi's posts from yesterday, I wouldn't actually be surprised if she is GM. This is a player who kept her vote on RF, despite listing five other players...

[The Fonz]

as scummier than him, and AH as her top suspect.

[The Fonz]

That said, Vi is clearly not the lynch for today, we're lynching a red.

[The Fonz]

Of the four, I'm still most sure of RF, with Ch/T as most likely town. Chamber is individually scummier, Tasky might be more connected.

[The Fonz]

Tasky, Vi/AV requires the scum to have a GF and the town to have only two power roles. That seems unbalanced to me.

[The Fonz]

JK is not better than doc when there's a cop, you're changing facts to fit your opinion rather than the other way round.

[The Fonz]

No, because a JK who unwittingly protects a cop still blocks him. Also, with a JK-prevented kill, you don't know if the target was the scum who tried to kill, or the town target.

[The Fonz]

Because there WEREN'T any f-in reasons! EVERY SINGLE PLAYER who joined you on that wagon merely asserted something like 'Not really sure here, but he's a better lynch than RF' and that was it.

[The Fonz]

This is crap. Your flurry of 'save your ass' activity didn't redeem your earlier noncontribution.

[The Fonz]

It does seem, however, that it would give bussing scumbuddies an EXCUSE to jump off of you.

[The Fonz]

Yeah, I totally made this shit up.

[The Fonz]

This is untrue.

[The Fonz]

I get the feeling you are going with the 'discredit' rather than 'defend' approach to my having you as no1. That feeds my suspicion.

[The Fonz]

After-the-fact justification does nothing to dissuade me that the votes were just piled on. I don't really know how to convince you, because if you can't see...

[The Fonz]

that that wagon absolutely stunk, and it isn't apparent just by looking at it, I don't know how much arguing individual details is going to do.

[The Fonz]

Seriously, it's like you snapped your fingers and all the scum came rushing to your aid.

[The Fonz]

This is bullshit. You didn't vote AH till deadline after extension, you stayed on RF while the AH wagon built up.

[The Fonz]

You went to AH at the last moment, when it was very clear we didn't have the numbers to lynch RF.

[The Fonz]

Why the hell should I consider that vote?

[The Fonz]

Ch: Vi said that I didn't consider her vote. My counter is that Vi's vote was a last minute, avoid NL thing, and wasn't really part of the 'AH wagon' as such.

[The Fonz]

Ah, I see, I linked to the post of mine she attacked, not the attack post.

[The Fonz]

RF: several people did scummy things in a way that saved RF, if I'm not sure WHICH of them is scum, does implicate you.

[The Fonz]

Also note: 2/3 of the other reds are on PR, and it looks like RF is keeping his options open to do it. RF, I'd be much less suspicious if you looked like...

[The Fonz]

you were actually making some effort to work out which of T, Ch, PR, is the best lynch today.

[The Fonz]

Chamber/AV: Scenarios.

1) AV is lying, there is no scum PR. Likely not a GF either.
2) Chamber is BP GF

[The Fonz]

3) There is maf. roleblocker, who protected chamber

[The Fonz]

Dammit, 3) should be MAF DOC who protected chamber. 4) Maf RB who targeted Av.

[The Fonz]

The first says AV scum, second two chamber scum, third doesn't implicate anyone specifically.

[The Fonz]

Chamber, how is that spun?

[The Fonz]

Presence of JK makes RB less likely, but RB targeting player who outed self as PR is simpler explanation than Maf Doc/GF.

[The Fonz]

Yeah, if it's the RB, then it would be to nullify a PR rather than protect a specific player.

[The Fonz]

This is dishonest. What part of 'Why keep vote on RF when AH is both scummier in your eyes and viable' do you not? At what point did AH become better wagon?

[The Fonz]

Mods very rarely though not never include multiple roleblocking roles in same game, since action resolution can be complicated.

[The Fonz]

RB blocks JK, JK targets RB, does the RB get protected or not?

[The Fonz]

Evidently not, it's based on all the reds being on AH. Your vote looked scummy to me overnight, but unCCed cop makes up for a lot.

[The Fonz]

I came up with a similar thought on Vi while going to the shops about an hour ago, though with slightly different reasoning.

[The Fonz]

Either AV is lying, or something blocked him. If he's lying, town has only two PR, so no need for scum power. If telling the truth, scum has either RB/BPGF/Doc, and I think two scum power roles is overpowered.

[The Fonz]

Here's the problem. If there is a roleblocker and we mislynch, we lose. If AV is scum and we mislynch, we lose. Maf doc or BPGF, it's up in the air.

[The Fonz]

RF, you seem to be of the impression that pressure is of any use at this point anyway. Look back at everything they've said, everything they've done, and WHEN they did it.

[The Fonz]

Halfdecent scum usually have a pretty good excuse for nearly everything they do anyway.

[The Fonz]

^Assuming we mislynch. If we lynch correctly, he still has his 'free' shot in the locker. No reason to not shoot a red.

[The Fonz]

In fact, thinking about it, if we lynch right today, counterintuitively it is best for AV to shoot the red player

he thinks most likely to be town.

[The Fonz]

Cookie to whoever can explain why.

[The Fonz]

Bingo, RF. We can afford to vig the last townie, but not to lynch him. As for no posts... I guess the Americans didn't get on.

[The Fonz]

Fallacious. That says that either he's scum or the two voting him are scum, but the latter is still a strong possibility.

[The Fonz]

Yes, of course. What makes you think that I'm not?

[The Fonz]

Again, I post to point out something objectionable as soon as I come across it. I then read the rest. Always have done, always will.

[The Fonz]

Mostly the fact that two of the top four scum suspects are voting PR, and the other one is positioning himself to drop the hammer as soon...

[The Fonz]

as another vote goes on PR. I want RF to commit to a vote for PR (or one of the others) before you show your hand, Vi.

[The Fonz]

Oh yeah. In which case there's little danger in a

vote: RayFrost.

[The Fonz]

Tasky? I had him as the least scummy of the four (still find it hard to imagine him faking the OMGUS/MD thing)....

[The Fonz]

But the arrangement of the votes gives me pause.

[The Fonz]

That two of the three other players most likely to be scum if PR is not point the finger at him straightaway.

[The Fonz]

I find that to be evidence for his innocence, and hence I found it strange (and I would find it scummy normally) that you interpreted it as evidence for his

guilt.

[The Fonz]

He didn't exactly do a massive, reasonable analysis did he? Either he is the chosen target of the scumgroup for a mislynch, or at best...

[The Fonz]

he's the one the scum have decided is expendable. The one most likely to be scum is the one none of the other suspects are going near.

[The Fonz]

AV: If Tasky is scum, I'd much more likely see the first one as a bus.

[The Fonz]

I'd quite like to have meta though, to work out if PR is a VI, or just acting like caught scum.

[The Fonz]

Vi, I think what was confusing me is you talking about him having two votes and not being dead, which gave me the impression scum would have been in position to quickhammer.

[The Fonz]

If RF is town: Both chamber and Tasky are bussing, and Tasky's earlier chamber vote was also a bus, as is PR's chamber vote, and the scum have not even attempted to get town lynched here.

[The Fonz]

Hero, regardless of how many lynches we have, if we work out which three of the four are scum without lynching the town one, town wins.

[The Fonz]

Uh, why would you assume I didn't have that thought?

[The Fonz]

But one is not sufficiently more likely than the other, compared to the likelihood the guy none of the top suspects are willing to attack is scum.

[The Fonz]

Who was also very scummy as an individual, and was the beneficiary of the AH wagon.

[The Fonz]

Vi, do you believe that every vote by a red today was a scum bussing?

[The Fonz]

Because it's a false dichotomy. It's not a question of yes/no, it's a question of likelihoods. I think he's more than 50-50 to be scum, but less likely than RF.

[The Fonz]

chamber, assuming what you mean by question is what I think it is, I didn't ignore it, I don't want to answer like that because I don't think putting things in that kind of framework is useful.

[The Fonz]

Right, fine. It's just the way you phrased it made it like you were trying to paint that as scummy.

[The Fonz]

I don't know what Vi's trying, it's as if she's trying to craplogic me into either outright ruling out the possibility of PR-scum, or voting him.

[The Fonz]

Yes, it is a false dichotomy, because the only reasonable answer a town player can give there is not yes/no but 'probably.'

[The Fonz]

Frankly, if it weren't for the investigation, I'd be all over Vi-scum here.

[The Fonz]

How the hell does upping your activity when basically faced with a choice of doing so or dying, look townish?

[The Fonz]

Yes. What about it?

[The Fonz]

Can see what? He looks like another WW55 to me.

[The Fonz]

Incidentally, I would like PR to set out in about three posts concisely but fully WHY he thinks that chamber is a better lynch than RF or Tasky.

[The Fonz]

Yeah Vi, out of the two of us, it's really

me

who's not taking a stand. You yourself admit that for the little threeway Ch/T/PR to all be scum would be unprecedented...

[The Fonz]

in your experience. That says to me that the town one is in those three, therefore the one who's much the likeliest scum is RF, who's on the outside.

[The Fonz]

If I were scum here, I'd either try to get the townie lynched if he looks scummy enough, or bus the least useful member of the scumteam.

[The Fonz]

The best lynch for town is obviously neither the town one, nor the most useless scum- we want to hit the most useful scum.

[The Fonz]

And obv. avoid the townie at all costs. Therefore, RF is head and shoulders above as best lynch. Does the other three suspects listing PR as PE #1 really not give you pause?

[The Fonz]

Think you've misread this AV. I'm not doing an 'If I were scum I'd do X, therefore I'm not scum' I'm doing an 'If I were in their position, I would do X, therefore I expect X.'

[The Fonz]

I don't think PR is the most likely to flip town, but events today make it higher- and he sure isn't least.

[The Fonz]

PR is second to RF for me in individual scumminess, but in terms of connections, he falls behind chamber and pretty close to Tasky for me.

[The Fonz]

If Tasky is town, then all the other three are scum, but notably Ch and PR have fingered each other rather than he.

[The Fonz]

he is RF.

[The Fonz]

Yes, connections between unflipped players. Where there's at least an 80% chance and we're probably talking closer to 95%...

[The Fonz]

that all the scum are in a group of four players, and three of those four point the finger at the other one... I mean, c'mon, it's pretty clear PR is the guy the scum want lynched, isn't it?

[The Fonz]

And town players, fairly obviously, should not want to lynch the player the scum want dead.

[The Fonz]

Well no, you're both scummy, but you're actually scummier than PR in isolation.

[The Fonz]

Strawman, there's no must about it. But the possibility that this is scum going for the game-winning lynch must be factored in...

[The Fonz]

because that's a very viable strategy for scum. You keep saying 'Well he could be being bussed.' Well if he's being bussed, that implies that two players, both of whom are less scummy than you...

[The Fonz]

are scum together. Make that argument, if you will.

[The Fonz]

Because they're scum and are RF's partners, duh.

[The Fonz]

Intake of breath time. If it's Tasky/Chamber/PR, game's over.

[The Fonz]

AV- shoot PR or Tasky in that scenario, whichever you think is more likely to be a mafia doc.

[The Fonz]

Probably Tasky, since I REALLY don't think the scum would bus their power role as hard as PR was bussed to begin today if that's the scenario.

[The Fonz]

Not that Pappum's posts today don't give me pause, but WW55 was the same.

[The Fonz]

I think Chamber's just playing the long game. I can't get too worked up about this- if we'd lynched PR, I'd still never have gone for RF as town over Tasky, I don't think.

[The Fonz]

Heck, I probably wouldn't have gone for RayFrost as town over Chamber either.

[The Fonz]

Due to incriminating silence, I'm guessing Vi?

[The Fonz]

Hardly. You were posting all over the site. Not really any great reason to be coy now anyway.

[The Fonz]

Well, given the fact that Tasky pulled a scum quickhammer, I think so. Just trying to work out who the partners are, since chamber seems to be so adamant he's town when he could just maintain a dignified silence.

[The Fonz]

And to think, at one point I was about ten seconds away from confirm voting Tasky and refusing to move it as long as we both drew breath. The MD thread was a HUGE part of the reason why I backed away, and that leaves a bit of a sour taste in the mouth (as does the fact that I think Tasky made at least one misleading statement in that thread due to being scum here). I also kinda had a power role read on him, because of the five old games of his I read, the only one where he acted even remotely like this was the one where he was tracker.

As does scumfishy dragging his 'I'm behind... I'm catching up... I think I might replace out' cycle on for two full days. Huh, the chronic lurker and the apparent moron being scum- reminds me why I like policy lynching. I told you all he was lying about his meta, dammit.

Like I said toward the end of the day, I don't really think RF vs Pappums was the defining reason for the loss, because the issue was that:

A) Everyone thought Tasky was town
B) I didn't believe we'd have both a roleblocker and GF, since I thought that was unbalanced.

Has we lynched Pappums, I'm basically certain Ray or Chamber would have gone the following day anyway. Even if everything had been as it seemed on the surface, town was basically willing to gamble the game on Tasky. Hence my desire to avoid PR, even if he were likely scum- there was no way the mafia would bus their RB like that, and town's best chance, imho, was to hit the roleblocker and force the scum to choose between allowing another investigation or allowing two more viggings.

Also, premature claimants can die in a fire.

Indeed, even when I considered the possibility of Viscum, the thing that stood out for me was how she started the RayFrost wagon, but then suddenly became convinced by the previously ignored AH's scumminess at pretty much the tipping point. So even if I'd had Vi as GF, the red player I most thought likely to be her partner was still Ray.

[The Fonz]

Right, which is why I suggested you post the StrangerCoug thread in the gameplay improvement thread, where the discussion wouldn't have impinged so badly on this game.

You acted in that thread like you couldn't understand why scum would possibly omgus when they know their attacker is right. Whilst omgusing here as scum.

[The Fonz]

Fishy, I agree with you. I'm not saying that it was a deliberate tactic, but you definitely should have either, to use an appropriate expression, fished or cut bait. Either catch up and play properly, or give us time to get a read on your replacement.

[The Fonz]

I know it's not a deliberate tactic because replacing out is worse than losing either way, so you personally have nothing to gain from it.

[The Fonz]

Yeah, and understandably when you did that Cayke and I thought it scummy, because it's just something town should never ever ever do.

[The Fonz]

Oh another point was that I felt the whole multipost thing kinda made a mockery of the premise, so the game just became a reasonably normal game, but more annoying. If it were run again, I'd ban anything more than doubleposts, and require at least two other players to post in between, I think.

[The Fonz]

Urgh. Tasky had me completely fooled. I feel that my thoughts on why the gamestate could switch to AH were valid, though I do apologize for the early claim.

Oh, I always thought what you were suggesting was

possible

, I just never saw it as likely. The fact that neither you nor chamber were willing to attack Tasky kinda made me think you were scum together, rightly or wrongly.

In retrospect, of course, the AH wagon was largely towndriven, but that doesn't change my thought that it was bad.

[The Fonz]

NS, how about running it as an open game with say, cop + one-shot vig and no scum power? Remember Stoofer's second law- if you're tinkering with the mechanics, you generally want to keep roles and night actions pretty simple.

[The Fonz]

Don't read "I do not have bullets" as "I have bullets."

I thought you might have been softclaiming cop, since cops show up to gunsmiths as having guns but don't kill anyone. Or gunsmith itself. Or a vig that killed with a knife or something. The last thing I'd have come up with is VT, because softclaiming vanilla is utterly retarded.

[The Fonz]

Also LOL at Kast mentioning how I pointed out Tasky is better than he played here but it getting buried. THAT WAS THE MAJOR, NUMBER ONE POINT OF MY ENTIRE CASE ON HIM THE WHOLE OF DAY ONE! Jaysus.

[The Fonz]

Yeah. Thinking back, it's kind of hard to overstate the effect that post had: like I said, I was about thirty seconds away from confirming my vote, and I basically switched to a town read because of the MD omgus discussion.

Cop/Vig/JK vs goon/GF/RB isn't unbalanced at all. Indeed, part of my thinking day three was that with those three town roles, RB-only was more balanced than RB-GF. Of course, it just underlines my most strongly held belief about mafia: towns which stupidly out their roles lose.

[The Fonz]

Meh, by the time you came in, he'd already outed himself as power. He should never, ever have said 'It was a breadcrumb.' It would have been better to take the heat, and claim if he ended up facing lynch.