Mini 1316 - Last Will Mafia IV (Over)

[Sleepless Assassin]

vote fish

for being scum with malee.

Gotta check who is last on my will but I have to ask. DDD, why ask?

[Sleepless Assassin]

Kurtis was last, but has been replaced by alice. I made my will and then added in the players I've never heard of at the end.

[Sleepless Assassin]

Fish, you seem on edge to me.

[Sleepless Assassin]

Fish, I don't knoow, it's just a vibe I get from your posts. And I don't remember what I saw from malee. Let me ISO after this post.

Rhinox, id love your vote if I can get some solid reads at some point.

[Sleepless Assassin]

Oh yeah, the whole skimming over reaction thing was what I didn't like about malee.

[Sleepless Assassin]

Lastsurvivor, I can do the whole quote wall thing when I get to a computer, but from a phone, a lot of my reasoning is going to look very general. Id say check my recent meta but I crashed the site back to november to erase it just so you couldn't see it.

[Sleepless Assassin]

Lastsurvivor, anything you'll find before november was before I spent time away from the site. I was living with my parents then, so I had access to a computer every day and rarely posted from my phone. Therefore, the games before the crash won't show you a lot of phone posts from me.

Also, I'm trying to decide whether fish is still scummier than malee or not. They are still my top two picks. DDD is a third choice, but I'm not at all confident on that. His nacho case doesn't seem right. Is nacho generally a player who looks at every detail or is what DDD calls "cruise control" just Nacho's style? Because while I remember nacho being someone who knows what he's talking about, I don't feel like I remember him being the voice of the town or anything. At least not on Day 1.

[Sleepless Assassin]

Last, go ahead and check it but don't expect many similarities. And I don't think I'm fence sitting on those reads with my vote on fish, calling malee almost as scummy, and clearly specifically saying DDD is third scummiest.

Nacho, there was a newb game and I think there may have been one other. Not completely sure. It's been a while.

Last, nothing you are saying about that post makes any sense. Of course I'm going to point out DDD when it catches my attention. If I catch a scum vibe and let it go, id hate to ignore it all game, see him win as scum, and come back like "yeah, he looked scummy. I just never said so". And what do you see as fence sitting in there at all. I felt I was pretty clear with all of it.

[Sleepless Assassin]

As much as I like the malee hate, is reaching really scummy in the first few pages of the game?

[Sleepless Assassin]

Like I said, when I get to a computer, I can do the whole quote wall thing and make a fish case if you want me too. Hell, I'll even go over what I think of malee (although the vote from fish and your comment about malee playing similarly as town has me backing off of that a bit). While im at it, maybe I'll do everyone. But that could be a day, a week, or a month. I'm in an apartment with no internet, so who knows. I gave my reasoning. Unfortunately, without the quotes and further explanation, it probably won't convince too many people that fish is scum.

And no, I didn't say "reaching" was scummy about malee. A little reaching is necessary in the beginning of the game just to get things started. Meh, maybe we're looking at the same post and disliking it for different reasons.

the more I try to explain this, the more I actually find myself agreeing with whoever it was that said the reaching thing. I think it's just the word reaching that threw me off.

[Sleepless Assassin]

Back from where? And apathetic how?

[Sleepless Assassin]

Hip/Last, I don't own a computer.

[Sleepless Assassin]

Last, on fish it was a vibe I got from the tone of his posts that looked like scum to me. Let me pull up his ISO and see if I can figure it out:
-ISO 0. Telling everyone at game start to think about wills seems unneccesary and kind of like he's trying to appear helpful, but at that stage really doesn't help anything.
-ISO 1. When asked about the above, he tries to say people will forget if he doesn't remind anyone. A reminder on Page 1 though? Nah, he just wants to appear useful town. The reaction to being questioned about it as well as the will reveal thing are what I saw as "on edge". He seemed pretty defensive for someone not really being pressured or anything.
Everything after that can be summarized as "rhinox is scum, never mind. Bike isn't useful so here's a vote but no one cares so I'm gonna vote malee and just kind of agree with what everyone is saying there."

Malee didn't seem genuine with the over reaction to one thing (nacho) and lack of much else.

On DDD, I honestly don't feel I elaborated a ton. More of that section of the post was me trying to recall Nacho's style.

[Sleepless Assassin]

That's your first hint of suspicion on anyone this game. Not enough for a vote? Why not? And how much does it take for you to vote someone?

[Sleepless Assassin]

if you were forced to commit to it right now, what would be your take on the interactions between rhinox and hip. Do you think rhinox is scum? Buddies with hip? One scum but not the other? I'm a bit confused because that's the second post where you're all "rhinox this, but...".

[Sleepless Assassin]

Rhinox, I disagree about malee where you say scum wouldn't say oops and unvote. If they realize something is making them look bad, they could definitely back off of it.

And by interactions, I mostly meant the post where he voted you. Vince's take on that threw me off a little.

[Sleepless Assassin]

Rhinox, not necessarily. When scum lay down a vote, regardless of the intent behind it, and they are pressured for the vote, it is very common for them to go "oh shit, you're right. Silly me, unvote". As for scum making cases sound more logical, it depends oon the player. Some will do exactly what you are talking about. Some have trouble finding anything to talk about because they find it hard to "scumhunt" when they already know who is scum it all depends on the player. I think this has potential to become too much of a theory discussion though.

Is anyone else unimpressed with bike's "reads"?

Fish, scummy things, not just "things". Otherwise my vote would probably have to be considered random and I don't random vote.

[Sleepless Assassin]

Nacho, any reason for the change in playstyle? When did you decide to do it?

[Sleepless Assassin]

[Vince, I was more concerned with the fact that if he called half of those names either town or scum in his next post, it wouldn't be a contradiction.

Fish, in detail, what made you change your mind about rhinox? And about malee, while people don't buy bandwagoning as a scumtell these days, it's still a valid scum tendency in my experience.

[Sleepless Assassin]

unvote

.

Fish's response to bandwagoning is a town response. I threw out a buzzword to see what he'd say. I think if he was scum, he'd deny bandwagoning and say he has his own case that had nothing to do with everyone elses and malee was scummy whether everyone agreed or not. Instead, he said town wagon too and justified his reasoning for sheeping a case he agreed with. It looks really genuine.

As for a new vote, I want the kind of look at the game that I can only get from a computer, so I'm gonna try to get my girlfriend's laptop and bring it to Barnes N Noble today and look over the game.

[Sleepless Assassin]

Ok, I'm gonna do a few ISOs and see what I can get out of them.

First, Malee for two reasons. She looked like scum to me and then a massive wagon built up.
ISO 1 and 2: So there's the attack on Nacho for skimming. That's what caught me off guard. Admittedly, it was early in the day so I was looking for anything. Then again, it seems she massively over reaction. She voted (which is fine) and said he didn't care about the game. In ISO 2, she bolds and caps a "warning" not to skim.
ISO 4: She brings up Nacho's "vote" on Vincent (for the first time). Turns out the "vote" was a one-liner about Vince not voting.
ISO 6: Unvotes because Nacho didn't vote Vince. Wasn't Malee's initial vote for skimming? Actually, where the hell did she even get the impression that Nacho was skimming. I don't know, it looks to me like Malee is just set on voting Nacho and when it doesn't work, she plays the confusion card to back off of it.
ISO 7: Still feels Nacho skimmed even without the Vince vote. So why did Malee unvote if skimming is scummy to her?
ISO 8: Flakes. Fuck you.
Overall: I still feel Malee is scum. Her Nacho case reeks of being fake and she did nothing but tunnel on it. I think she was trying to give the impression of scum hunting.

Next up is funky. He seems to be under the radar, yet called scum a lot. It also looks like a wagon could be brewing on him. I want to make sure I'm satisfied with an opinion on him.
ISO 0,1,2: Irrelevant. I don't think he was playing the game up to this point.
ISO 4: These are the "reads" I mentioned having a problem with before. Look at them. According to bike, Vince is "Overly town", "[probably] vanilla town", and "at least for now". So he sees play that looks very town, decides to openly guess that he isn't a power role, and throw in the disclaimer at the end that it could change. Read on 4n is "no information". hip "has contributed" but bike "can't get a read". So he has three town reads (Last, Rhinox, and Kort). And Kort is somehow "proven town". The way I see these reads is he won't commit to reads on some players (why even list them? Why not list other players who may or may not be null?) and even his reads have no real reasons. The closest to reasoning he gets is on Last, because "scum wouldn't post like that". He calls Nacho scum and "can't see any other possibility, yet in....
ISO 5: he says Nacho provided a "decent explanation". So we're back to no scum reads and three unexplained town reads.
Overall: Really not liking Bike.

I also want to look at Alice. It looks like another potential wagon, but I haven't really seen this one as scummy. I'll see what comes up in the ISO.
ISO 1: Legitimate questions, but could be asked regardless of alignment.
ISO 3: Malee case. I don't think these two could be scum together, so if one flips scum, I probably won't go after the other.
ISO 5: Says Last is scummier if Malee flips scum. I think this shows a genuine belief that Malee is scum.
Overall: Yeah, Alice is town.

Vote Bike

because I don't feel like putting a player who can't claim at L-1. This does NOT mean that when someone replaces Malee, everyone unvotes because "HURHURHUR REPLACEMENT". Everyone knows replacing in isn't a towntell, yet I see it treated as one way too much. But yeah, Bike or Malee would be a good lynch. Both seem to be fake scumhunting.

Also, I'm adjusting my will and would suggest that everyone else who hasn't since confirmations do the same now that we are in the stage of the game where reads should exist on most players

[Sleepless Assassin]

Last, correct. I was judging by the vote count where malee had five votes. But at this point I don't really care whether malee or bike gets lynched. Both are pretty scummy.

As for hip, I don't have a strong opinion one way or the other. Definitely not obvtown or anything, but not at the top of my scum list either.

[Sleepless Assassin]

Fish, you don't think both can be scum? (Note to self: Theory. If fish is scum, exactly one of malee/bike is ALSO scum).

[Sleepless Assassin]

It's not as big a difference as you think it is.

I answered about hip. No strong opinion.

[Sleepless Assassin]

Alice, what makes replacing out a town tell? Once replaced, would you be willing to vote a player based on Malee's play?

[Sleepless Assassin]

Hip, I find the "yep" a little weird. You basically got called a misguided townie and jumped all over agreeing with it.

Alice, why aren't you willing to vote a player being replaced?

[Sleepless Assassin]

Just because I have some free time and laptop access (both of which are rarities for me) and it seemed to help the first time, I'm going to do a few more ISOs.

First up is hip, mostly due to the fact that I was only able to answer "what does everyone think of hip" with a big fat null.
ISO 1: The Rhinox vote. He seems to admit it's weak, but early in the game, that's fine.
ISO 3: Votes me, calling me sloppy and apathetic (no examples). Says he's tempted to vote Rhinox, who he is already voting.
ISO 4: Explains his Rhinox reasoning to Nacho. Seems legit.
ISO 7: Asks about DDD, who he seems to see as more lurky than normal. Revotes Rhinox. Seems mostly fine to me, but at this point it seems he has no strong reads unless the Rhinox thing is a bigger deal to him than it was originally.
ISO 9: "forgives" DDD because he didn't disappear until after RVS. This threw me off a little. If being lurky is scummy, shouldn't the fact that he was active in RVS prove the point more rather than less? (though I believe DDD said he was busy watching the NCAA tournament, which is understandable. I'd be doing the same if not for work).
ISO 12: The Rhinox case has become "gut", but he is "pretty convinced".
Overall: Ya' know, while I don't think he's playing a great game, I am actually leaning slight town on hip. The only suspicion he's shown is Rhinox (weak case, parked vote), me (changed his mind), and DDD (hasn't even directly called him scummy). I'd like to hear some of hip's reads, particularly scum reads. I really don't see scum intent in his posts though.

Next, I kind of want to look at 4n. I haven't really seen a whole lot that's stood out about him, but for some reason, my gut is leaning towards him possibly being scum. So let's take a look.
ISO 0: Votes fish for "stating the obvious" regarding updated wills. I like this because the same thing stood out to me.
ISO 1: Accepts fish's explanation, but leaves the vote. Could he have forgotten to unvote? Or maybe he saw nothing to vote on?
ISO 2: Votes Last in a vote-only post.
ISO 3: Votes Malee for being "jumpy". Looks like a wagon hop to me. Honestly, I see scum voting town here. Maybe I'm wrong on Malee. Also, what was the Last vote all about?
ISO 7: Answers "what do you think of DDD" with a wishy washy maybe scum maybe town answer. I don't think he's done anything to try to clarify the read either. What really gets me is the use of an exclamation point in "I could easily see scum!" and then where I expect an explanation and maybe mini-case, it starts to turn into maybe he's town, let's wait and see.
ISO 8: This is a pretty bad answer to Rhinox's question about whether Malee's actions make sense as scum.
ISO 9: Another pot-shot like the one on DDD, this time at Rhinox. Says he is reactive rather than proactive. It's a negative, maybe scum, kind of point to make, but nothing to pursue. It seems like he's leaving these trails that he can point back to and say "see, they gave me bad vibes here".
ISO 11: Unvotes Malee for replacement. If 4n was wagon-hopping scum, this is a good move because for whatever reason nobody ever lynches someone who replaces out while being wagoned. Shows a strong preference for Alicescum rather than Bikescum. If my reads on the two are correct, this makes sense for 4nScum because Bike would be his scumbuddy.
Overall: Holy fuck, 4n is scum. Assuming I'm right, Malee is town because there is no way they are buddies. Bike and 4n are definitely buddies though. If I was a dayvig, I'd be shooting 4n in this post and voting Bike because they both need to die Day 1.

That's gonna have to be all for now.

Just an update on my scum reads:
-Bike is scum and needs to be today's lynch
-4n is scum and I'll be voting him out of the gate tomorrow when Bike flips scum.
-Malee is town just because 4n is scum and they aren't scum together. If I'm wrong on 4n, Malee can still be scum, but I'm confident enough to drop the Malee suspicion for now. (Whoever told me to pick between Bike and Malee should be happy lol)
-I was pretty sold on Fishscum earlier, but I've changed my mind. A few of his posts have tweaked my gut since, but I'm wondering if his style just seems scummy to me.
-I mentioned a slight DDD suspicion earlier. It's still exactly that. A slight suspicion.
-Everyone else is either a town read or nothing has stood out. I'm honestly holding back a little on posting my strongest town reads because of the will mechanic. If scum can easily guess who is near the top of a will, it makes it easy for them to decide on their kill.

[Sleepless Assassin]

tl;dr version: Holy shit, 4n slipped under my radar and is obvscumbuddy with Bike. Malee is now town because 4n/malee are obvnotbuddies.

[Sleepless Assassin]

4n, nothing to say to my take on your ISO?

[Sleepless Assassin]

So... you . . . Don't defend yourself ever in a mafia game or...?

[Sleepless Assassin]

A week from deadline, I have no problem with someone switching a vote to a more likely lynch. Not that I can really see Nacho being lynched today. Stranger things have happened though.

[Sleepless Assassin]

Moan, the fish vote without immediate explanation can be described as an extremely early game vote. I tend to make a vote that isn't immediately clear whether it's random or not (it never is) and then bring it back up later hoping to draw attention to it. As for alice unvoting malee, I had a scum read on malee based on her posting. The only way I see her as town is if I am right on 4n/bike, which I'm pretty confident in, but I'm usually able to accept that my reads aren't always going to be 100%. I'm sure enough that I strongly prefer bike as a lynch, but I wasn't so sure before ISOing 4n.

On a side note, id laugh if rhinox and hip were scum together fake arguing. I don't think they are. I just think it would be funny.

[Sleepless Assassin]

4n, I find it very weird that you want to just let that slide and maybe everyone will forget about it, but tomorrow when I'm pushing your lynch, expect me to requote it and request a reply.

[Sleepless Assassin]

Moaner, how would you expect 4n to play as scum? I realize it's a hard question to answer, but giving someone a pass for "this is just how they play" isn't the right way to handle a player whose style you don't care for. Obviously, you know he isn't town in every game he plays, so it might help to try and figure out what to look for that might be different in his town games than scum games.

[Sleepless Assassin]

Last, it didn't change my mind.

Also not liking how every single wagon is dissolving more and more as we get closer to deadline. We NEED to actually lynch someone.

[Sleepless Assassin]

Unexpected indefinite V/LA. Phone was accidently slashed by a ForeverSharp knife and is seeing extremely limited action (as in I'm not bringing it with me to work) until I can have it taken care of. Hopefully, this will be tomorrow. If not, I will make an effort to get 30 minutes or so of laptop access every day for this game and my fantasy basketball playoffs.

[Sleepless Assassin]

Ok back guys.

So looks like all I missed is a bunch of people wagoning alice, including bike, but some people still prefer an alice lynch to a bike one.

Vinces replacement, why did you feel the need to state your wishy washy unhapiness with a bike lynch, but no opinion on alice who actually has more votes?

And just in case it's not as obvious as I feel it is, I still see alicetown and bikescum.

*also, everyone make sure you are happy with your will before the night. Deadline is only a few days away.*

[Sleepless Assassin]

Void, you seemed very interested in looking elsewhere for someone who thinks bike is scummy.

[Sleepless Assassin]

4n, nacho, alice, and Rhinox. Please rank bike, alice, and moan in scumminess (alice, you obviously don't have to include yourself in your list)

[Sleepless Assassin]

I don't understand why bike being lynched doesn't give us information if he flips town. What information are we missing out on exactly? Anyone with that opinion, feel free to answer.

Rhinox, I'm pretty sure it is going to come down to those three players. So I'm wondering where those voting elsewhere stand. I'll check your ISO, but if your opinion has already been stated, it should have just made it easier for you to answer.

[Sleepless Assassin]

Should go without saying, but just in case...

If moan comes back, it's time to claim.

[Sleepless Assassin]

I think I know why NewMaleeMoaner voted. I'll wait for his answer though.

[Sleepless Assassin]

NewMaleeMoaner, yeah, the fish suspicion was vibe-based.

Also just throwing out there, I agree with fish about void's reaction to the joke vote, which I figured that was what that was.

[Sleepless Assassin]

On Macro's replacing in...

There's a few ways to look at some things. The first is the amount of content. I agree with Rhinox that either scum or town can come in and post wall after wall after wall as soon as they replace in and everyone goes "OMGTOWN!" or my personal favorite "well the first guy was scummy but the replacement looks town so here's my unvote". However, if you look at quality over quantity, Macro's reads and opinions seem pretty genuine.

The other thing is the vote on Last. For pure survivalism, Rhinox is right (again) that it does no good. A vote on Bike would make the competing wagons closer. However, for purposes of looking town, you don't want to wagon hop, so having your own new opinion helps. The vote on DDD afterwards actually seems like such a blatant "lynch this guy, not me" that it's weird not to just vote Bike. To me, it's actually a sign of wanting to lynch a scum read rather than just someone with a lot of votes. The only way this doesn't make sense is if Macro and Bike are scum together, which I haven't ruled out.

Honestly, my read on Macro's slot has wavered quite a bit. Some of the play just looks incredibly scummy, but then there seems to be a town explanation that fits all of it. I currently have a slight town read on the slot. However, it's not a strong read at all.

Either way, it looks like Macro is the only player with the support for a lynch right now and it's time for him to claim.

[Sleepless Assassin]

Fuck it.

unvote, voted DDD

Let's get this train rolling since Bike isn't getting any kind of a wagon.

[Sleepless Assassin]

Kort, why the unvote of bike's slot?

Nacho, it's useless because it's outdated. Those were the three wagons when I posted it.

Also, macro is town. I'm sold now.

[Sleepless Assassin]

Nacho, I haven't seen anything scummy from Last.

Last, yes, Macro's VT claim is obviously a town tell. He claimed non-VT to avoid a lynch, but wouldn't claim an actual power role because he didn't want a counterclaim. Scum in that spot would probably claim a specific power role to either draw a counter and NK a power role or get no counter and "confirm" themselves as town.

[Sleepless Assassin]

Hate to say it, but I've gone from liking the wagons we had to really disliking the ones we have now. I've gotten a town read on Macro and always had one on Last.

[Sleepless Assassin]

Vote 4n

Not a lot has changed since Day 1. Lastlynch was as terrible as it was before it happened. Macrolynch is almost as bad. DDD, DCL, and 4n are still the scums.

And for those who missed it the first time, here's why I'm voting 4n:

Just because I have some free time and laptop access (both of which are rarities for me) and it seemed to help the first time, I'm going to do a few more ISOs.
<chop, irrelevant hip ISO>
Next, I kind of want to look at 4n. I haven't really seen a whole lot that's stood out about him, but for some reason, my gut is leaning towards him possibly being scum. So let's take a look.
ISO 0: Votes fish for "stating the obvious" regarding updated wills. I like this because the same thing stood out to me.
ISO 1: Accepts fish's explanation, but leaves the vote. Could he have forgotten to unvote? Or maybe he saw nothing to vote on?
ISO 2: Votes Last in a vote-only post.
ISO 3: Votes Malee for being "jumpy". Looks like a wagon hop to me. Honestly, I see scum voting town here. Maybe I'm wrong on Malee. Also, what was the Last vote all about?
ISO 7: Answers "what do you think of DDD" with a wishy washy maybe scum maybe town answer. I don't think he's done anything to try to clarify the read either. What really gets me is the use of an exclamation point in "I could easily see scum!" and then where I expect an explanation and maybe mini-case, it starts to turn into maybe he's town, let's wait and see.
ISO 8: This is a pretty bad answer to Rhinox's question about whether Malee's actions make sense as scum.
ISO 9: Another pot-shot like the one on DDD, this time at Rhinox. Says he is reactive rather than proactive. It's a negative, maybe scum, kind of point to make, but nothing to pursue. It seems like he's leaving these trails that he can point back to and say "see, they gave me bad vibes here".
ISO 11: Unvotes Malee for replacement. If 4n was wagon-hopping scum, this is a good move because for whatever reason nobody ever lynches someone who replaces out while being wagoned. Shows a strong preference for Alicescum rather than Bikescum. If my reads on the two are correct, this makes sense for 4nScum because Bike would be his scumbuddy.
Overall: Holy fuck, 4n is scum. Assuming I'm right, Malee is town because there is no way they are buddies. Bike and 4n are definitely buddies though. If I was a dayvig, I'd be shooting 4n in this post and voting Bike because they both need to die Day 1.

That's gonna have to be all for now.
<chop, irrelevant overall reads portion of post>

[Sleepless Assassin]

is there scum motivation in this post?

Not every post that scum makes has scum motivation. I was simply noting the vote to see where it went. Remember, it was an ISO read so everything that stood out was mentioned. As for my conclusion on the Last vote, I can't say I really came up with one in that specific ISO, hence the question about it. You immediately hopped on to Malee after it.

The thing that gets me about Last is the fact that he was one of my strongest town reads. With him being dead, I have no problem sharing this. He was at the top of my will until he started being wagoned. I never understood the case against him. I have only seen one game where a Day 1 mislynch didn't include scum and if I'm right about you being scum, this stands out as evidence that one or more of your buddies were on the lynch with you:

it is too early for wagon analysis, you need at least one scumflip.

Of course, if you are town, the above quote means nothing.

At that stage in the game seeing someone with a jumpy(or paranoid) vibe is as good to go off of as anything else. A wagonhop from fishy to malee? eh your a little off base there. If I think someone is scummy the amount votes on that person won't deter from joining a wagon in most circumstances.

This may be true, but I strongly believe scum are more prone to bandwagoning even if it's not a generally accepted tell anymore.

I don't think being unsure about someone's alignment at the very early stages in the game is wish-washy.

it is a different way of saying scumDDD or 'DDD's-scumplay'

Actually, I didn't say you were unsure and neither did you. And if you had a scum read, why didn't it come up until the question about him. And "could easily see" doesn't really seem the same as "scumDDD" to me. Your view on DDD looks like someone who was asked about his scumbuddy and gave an "OMG maybe he's scum. let's watch out for him" kind of answer. Honestly though, when I go back to your ISO and ctrl+f "DDD" (which I just did to see if it strengthened this point), your interactions don't look like scum on scum interactions.

meh I don't mind using pot-shots for pressure. Me leaving trails would only be valid if rhinox flipped scum and I went "see, I knew he was scum give me towncred", neither of those things have happened though.

That's not my issue with the pot-shots. It's more that if... let me give an example. Let's say we get near deadline and we only have one major wagon and the guy claims a power role and we all go "oh shit, that makes sense. Who the fuck do we lynch now?" Well, obviously we end up with a rushed wagon and, for sake of example, assume we get the lynch off. Now this random "how the fuck did they get lynched" person flips town. Next day, everyone is flipping out and saying scum had to have pushed the lynch through. If you hopped the wagon and people didn't like your vote, you can say "nooo, see? I called them scum back there". And don't say "OMG that like never happens!" because it's one of many examples.

Granted, pot shots like that are only a big deal if you do it to most of the players in the game and not just a couple, but that's why I pointed out a later one and not the first. I saw a trend.

it is also a good move for town since a replacement can take some time and a replacement might shed new light on a slot. bike hasn't flipped so basing my lynch on being scumbuddies with him makes for weak scumhunting.

I tend to disagree with most people when it comes to replacements. I just don't like it when someone's read changes entirely on a replaced player. They have the exact same Role PM, so I don't see how you can have a scum read on one and a town read on the other. This is probably a theory argument that isn't completely relevant here though.

As for the bike connection, I'm not basing the vote on that. I'm just noting it to try and understand some connections later on. I tend to leave myself some things to look back on, maybe because I don't take notes for games and that's just my version of it. Either way, it's not really important unless you are trying to argue that "no, bike isn't my scumbuddy. X and Y are!", in which case, feel free.

Basically, my case isn't really one major thing that stands out. It's just the large number of small things which is probably what lead to my vibe with nothing standing out before I ISO'd.

~Quote tag cleaned up

[Sleepless Assassin]

Mod, is there any way you can fix that tag for me please? Should have previewed...

Also, responding to everything else now. I'm not ignoring the rest, just felt I shouldn't mix other things in with that post.

[Sleepless Assassin]

@Sleepless Assassin

Why is DCL scum? I actually think scum would be very unlikely to push a lynch on a townie so hard.

Uhhhhh.

I'm not sure how many games you've played, but almost ALL of the ones I've been in have had a scum push a mislynch pretty hard.

But to answer your question:

Next up is funky. He seems to be under the radar, yet called scum a lot. It also looks like a wagon could be brewing on him. I want to make sure I'm satisfied with an opinion on him.
ISO 0,1,2: Irrelevant. I don't think he was playing the game up to this point.
ISO 4: These are the "reads" I mentioned having a problem with before. Look at them. According to bike, Vince is "Overly town", "[probably] vanilla town", and "at least for now". So he sees play that looks very town, decides to openly guess that he isn't a power role, and throw in the disclaimer at the end that it could change. Read on 4n is "no information". hip "has contributed" but bike "can't get a read". So he has three town reads (Last, Rhinox, and Kort). And Kort is somehow "proven town". The way I see these reads is he won't commit to reads on some players (why even list them? Why not list other players who may or may not be null?) and even his reads have no real reasons. The closest to reasoning he gets is on Last, because "scum wouldn't post like that". He calls Nacho scum and "can't see any other possibility, yet in....
ISO 5: he says Nacho provided a "decent explanation". So we're back to no scum reads and three unexplained town reads.
Overall: Really not liking Bike.

______________________________________________

It’s a straight damage control move; attempting to make a player’s slot seem more town by excusing their prior play due to incompetence. Town’s first instincts upon replacing in are “who are scum?”; scum’s first instinct is “protect myself”.

I feel like anyone with a wagon on them is going to want to protect themself.

[Sleepless Assassin]

Void, what else can you say to defend yourself in your first post of the game?

[Sleepless Assassin]

Kort, 4n is my strongest scum read so that's where my vote is. As far as questions, nothing stands out that I don't already understand right now.

[Sleepless Assassin]

SA, so your scumread on DCL is due to his predecessor? What do you think of DCL's play?

Yes, I got my scum read on the slot when Bike was still in the game. As far as DCL, his play looks pretty solid. Obviously, the two share a Role PM though.

Void, can you tell me why Macro's claim makes sense for scum? Why would scum claim a power role and then instead of just claiming an actual power role or sticking to "town doesn't need to know as much as scum does", he just goes "aw shucks, I'm just a plain old townie"? The only intent I can personally think of is fear of outing an actual power role. Claiming vanilla is basically resigning to a lynch. Scum have more reason to keep fighting at that point than town.

Voided was on the wagon, macro appeared to be sucking up to him to get voided to get off the wagon.

^Arguments like this are part of the reason the macro case looks like such garbage right now. If someone was going to "suck up" to someone voting them, why would they choose voided? Why not one of the "voice of reason" kind of players? Someone with persuasive abilities who everyone thinks is town. Or maybe multiple players. All I know is if I saw (and I'm taking the list from the five he mentioned, not the wagons, because it's the players that stand out to him and means more in this context) Kortul/hiplop/voided/debonair/DCL voting me and was going to try buddying to shake them off the wagon, my first thought wouldn't be "Oh shit, gotta get voided off that wagon".

[Sleepless Assassin]

Like. Ok, I saw Malee as scummy and all and haven't seen rainbows flying out the ass of anyone in the slot as far as towniness but come on guys.

Seriously, someone give a bullet point case and then read it. Look at how ridiculous it looks. If you don't think it does, post it. Hell, post it anyway. I could use the entertainment.

Just from the post I just made, I see that we see him claiming vanilla instead of fighting his lynch with a strong fake claim as a scum tell, which shows admitted defeat and then the same guy is apparently desperate to shake void, yes void of all people, off his wagon to save himself.

Are you guys reading the shit you spew?

Let's string up the real scum 4n and call it a day.

Seriously...

[Sleepless Assassin]

DDD, but if that's the case, why did he claim to be a power role in the first place? If vanilla is such a safe claim for scum to make, why did he feel the need to claim to be a power role first? The fact that he didnt do so defeats your point because macro didn't see vanilla as such a safe claim to make, yet when pressured more, he resigned and claimed vanilla. As scum, I'm sure he'd continue to make something up. His vanilla claim had more of an "ok, you got me. Here's the truth" tone to it.

Void, I'll admit it's not really fresh in my mind and id have to go back and read it again, but I don't remember having the impression that you were leading the wagon.

Macro, if you have a strong town read on 4n and feel he will be lynched without your "town case", feel free. However, I'm the only one voting him so I don't see the point.

Everyone voting macro, read his case on DCL. Don't look at the quality of the case or even whether you agree with it or not. Look at the intent and pick apart macro's brain. It is very obvious that he is convinced part way through the post that he has found scum and presented a great case on why. Scum wouldn't have to convince themselves because they'd know whether they are right ot wrong.

[Sleepless Assassin]

Void, no, scum can't truthfully claim VT.

DDD, then why wouldn't he claim a less common power role or something? Oh and by the way, unorthodox play also has a tendency to find the ropes. The more you elaborate on why he is scum, the stronger a town case I see.

4n, that is a very vague way to state your reads...

[Sleepless Assassin]

Macro, to answer your first question, I feel I've layed out my case. He responded and I responded back. No one else seems interested except for the fact that you have a town read on him. I'm leaving my vote there to basically say "I think he is scum and I'm not letting it go".

And your other question...honestly, your town case looks more like a case against him except that "scum would never be so obvious". Your first point is the same point I made with the same reasoning except you finish yours with "scum would provide reasoning". Really? How often are people voted for not providing enough reasoning? Next is that he went against your lynch. Well, it looked (or looks) inevidible that you will be lynched at some point. If I was scum and you were town, id want to distance myself from the mislynch. If you are scum, this point (and this discussion for that matter) is null.

The last part is a real gem.

you call 4n town for not providing a lot of content, which scum would apparently never ever do because they'd get attacked. So he MUST be town, right? WRONG

.

Listen. Scum do scummy things. Scumtells are, believe it or not, NOT town tells.

[Sleepless Assassin]

The last part is a real gem.

you call 4n town for not providing a lot of content,

I am deeply offended by this comment.

SA can you take the time to pressure other people as well? that way you don't squander all of D2 pushing a scumread that is town.

The content thing was actually macro's pooint, not mine.

And most of my reads from earlier still stand. Assuming there isn't a random push towards you, I'll probably vote DDD near deadline.

Looking at the vote count, it's weird that fish is V/LA til the 43rd.

[Sleepless Assassin]

Alice, lurking wasn't one of my points against Bike. Also, what evidence?

[Sleepless Assassin]

Macro, most likely not, but that's no reason to just forget about him being scum. I want my voice to reflect my opinions.

Kort, what exactly is your read on 4n?

DDD, have you ever seen a VT fakeclaim or a mafia discussion thread where it was discussed? I'm not necessarily saying it's the right thing to do, but the fact that it's out there means it's an option that it happened here. You seem to accept no answer except "welp, he fakeclaimed. MUST be scum." Like, I don't even think you are trying to determine what happened. You are either scum who already knows or town who refuses to remove the blinders.

4n, understandable. I've felt that way before. One question though. Why the avatar change?

[Sleepless Assassin]

Is it the 43rd already?

Fish basically summed up my thoughts on the macro case. He just did it in a more . . .well-written kind of way.

[Sleepless Assassin]

Kort, can you be more specific with examples regarding your 4n read? What logic, questions, and comments did you like from him and why? I'm not sure if this is the case or not, but it's happened to me before: Be sure you aren't confusing the two games. ISOs help.

[Sleepless Assassin]

Alice, it's not a contradiction. Scum can play well just like town can. Also, the lurking thing should be thrown out the window because I had points against Bike.

Avatar change wasn't irrelevant. He changed it to blue which is a color that can mess with someone who plays off of gut and give them a subconcious town read. His response showed nothing to make me wonder further about it though.

The two sharing a PM doesn't mean scum. It just means they share alignment. I don't understand how so many people can vote Bike, yet DCL seems to be a common town read. I'd actually like to hear what everyone saw in DCL that was more townie than Bike was scummy.

[Sleepless Assassin]

I'd actually like to hear what everyone saw in DCL that was more townie than Bike was scummy.

I thought bike was town so I don't think this applies to me

Correct.

[Sleepless Assassin]

Activity isn't an alignment tell. It's a free time tell. Unless you can show me games where Bike or DCL lurked as scum at the same time as they were active in a town game, there is no argument for or against their activity in this game. Even then, it may or may not be valid.

[Sleepless Assassin]

Void, can you point me to specific examples of DCL's "town things" that outweigh the points I made against funky?

Hip is probably right. This day has run it's course.

unvote, vote DDD

[Sleepless Assassin]

Void, the question was how it outweighs the case on Bike.

[Sleepless Assassin]

And I answered it, just not as articulate as it would've been had the site not gone down last night.

I didn't see any mention of the case against Bike in that post.

[Sleepless Assassin]

Void. When you have a town case trying to outweigh a scum case, the scumm case is kind of relavent.

Fish, it's down to macro and DDD for today's lynch. DDD is a slight scum read for me and Macro is a strong town read. Easy choice.

[Sleepless Assassin]

A.) Relevant*

B.) How are you not getting that I was outweighing (or at least attempting to) the scum case? I mean, yeah, sure, I never mentioned the scum case (though the original draft did), but do you really think that wasn't an/the intention of that post?

I'd have liked to see what you didn't like about the case.

______________________

Ok, here's where I stand:
-I won't vote Macro unless it comes down to him or no lynch.
-DDD's claim looks like a genuine one.
-I want to lay off 4n with the mason claim

Vote DCL

Probably the best lynch today and he already has a miniwagon, so let's do this.

[Sleepless Assassin]

My bad, I was judging by the last vote count. Either way, I'm happy with my vote. It's the best lynch that actually has support.

By the way, if I wanted an easy mislynch, id vote macro who you just called town so.....yeah....

[Sleepless Assassin]

I need to do a really detailed analysis of some sort. Starting to think my reads went from great early day 1 to terrible late Day 2 again. I've been doing that lately...

[Sleepless Assassin]

DDD, in that quote, "voice" should have beenn "vote". Someone asked why my vote was on 4n and that was my response. He was my top scum read and I wanted that clear. I was vocal about thinking macro was town because he really looked like town to me. If I was his buddy, I wouldn't have put myself out there like that knowing he'd probably end up lynched at some point. Honestly, when I saw the flip, I fully expected votes to come my way as well as towards fish because he and I were pretty much the only players to call macro town repeatedly at the end of the day.

As I said before though, I need to reread some things before I commit to any reads.

[Sleepless Assassin]

That's because I went from "we have a while, a lot can happen" mode to "deadline is coming, guess I gotta settle" mode.

[Sleepless Assassin]

DDD, settling gets a lynch through.

[Sleepless Assassin]

A deadline lynch gives a better chance of lynching scum than a no lynch does.

[Sleepless Assassin]

A deadline lynch gives a better chance of lynching scum than a no lynch does.

Reciting tired mafia catechisms at me doesn't exactly sway me in the way you probably were hoping.

I'm not looking to sway you into playing near-deadline situations the way I do. Merely explaining my logic for playing that way.

[Sleepless Assassin]

Fish, I have no idea who is scum. I'm trying to set aside time to do my own read similar to yours. For some reason, rhinox is pinging my gut. No basis behind why, unfortunately. And when I look at the two top wagons, it's kort and you (fish). Two players who I've had town reads on for quite a while. When I look at my top two remaining livng suspects from yesterday, DDD claimed a believable town role and DCL was a counterwagon to macro, which isn't a 100% town tell, but it's enough to shake my confidence in that read. I'm extremely torn and need a massive look at things before I come to any conclusions. I know no one is going to care that my life is busy right now, but that's what's slowing my progress right now. If nothing else, I guess I have to settle on rhinox and DCL as guesses for scum right now, but I doubt I'm right at this point.

[Sleepless Assassin]

Fish, not sure. Maybe tomorrow, but no promises.

[Sleepless Assassin]

Magua, did you have a specific question for me?

Fish, I start to worry about no lynch sooner than a lot of people. I've seen a lot of games where votes don't move very quickly, specifically the last game I played.

[Sleepless Assassin]

Fair. Being busy isn't really a good excuse. Honestly, the best I can do right now is sheep which I tend to avoid doing.

Let me give a quick opinion on each player just so everyone knows where I'm at. I know it's not going to be any huge information, but here it is:

Fish- he seemed scummy in the very early stages of the game, but quickly made me think town soon after. Yesterday, his opinions almost mirrored mine exactly, but considering how wrong I was, I don't think that's a good thing. Basically I'm not as confident in yesterday's town read.

Void- I've seen small things pop out that I didn't like, but overall he's a town read.

Magua- I thought town for quite a while, but same as fish where I'm less sure of that today.

Kortul- same as fish and magua but to a lesser extent. I still think he is town.

DCL- I still want to say scum, but being such a strong counterwagon makes me question it just a little bit.

Hip- leaning town on him

DDD- town read because of his claim

Rhinox- as I said before, a recent gut scum read. Some of his posts just have a scum feel to them for some reason and his hammer vote kind of reads like someone who is hammering a buddy.

I feel lost in this game. If anyone wants to ask questions to help me get involved again, shoot. Magua, to answer why I'm not voting, it's mostly that I'm not confident in my reads at all and haven't found any time to look over the game enough to change that.

[Sleepless Assassin]

rhinox, I don't really want to elaborate on town reads because of the mechanics of the game. As far as scum reads:
-DCL should be easy to find in my ISO although most of it goes back to bike.
-you (rhinox), basically what I said in that post. It's mostly gut, but also the fact that the hammer vote on macro doesn't necessarily scream town.

The ones that might be scum who I initially had or still have town reads on:
-fish. Basically being very wrong yesterday which is awkward for me because I had almost the exact same reads as he did.
-magua. Basically may be a fit as a macro buddy although I still need to do my own research on this.
Kortul- same as magua although he isn't at all a scum read unless I find something pretty solid.

[Sleepless Assassin]

Void, nothing huge. I don't tend to agree with your opinions or like your thought process, but nothing that makes me think you are scum.

DDD, right now, probably fish, then magua, then me. Like I said, fish mirroring me when I was so wrong probably isn't coincidence. Magua is next because he fits as a macro buddy if I take everyone else's word for it. I'm last because I know my role.

[Sleepless Assassin]

Fish, I don't know honestly. I've just got a funny feeling about it.

[Sleepless Assassin]

Void, why are you even focusing on that? I don't even think you are scum.

I have a day off from work tomorrow (maybe), so let me try and find a little while to figure this game out. After that, hammer away.

[Sleepless Assassin]

Probably just wanted to post the picture. By the way, I'm working that day off but I might still get some time tomorrow.

[Sleepless Assassin]

Ok, so here's the deal. I was supposed to have today off, but now I have about 20-30 minutes of free time for the day. I consider my will to be more important than my opinions being put out there, so I'm going to update that first. After that, I'll do what rushed analysis I can do. If everyone can wait a few days, great. I'll give this game 2-3 hours to see what I can find. If not, whatever. All I can say for sure is that this will be my last game for a while unless a drastic amount of free time opens up for me soon. So off to do my will and then I'll see what I can do after that. If I'm hammered before a few days time comes, peace. It's been fun, or at least Days 1 and 2.

[Sleepless Assassin]

Ok, my to do list for analysis:
-Vote Count Analysis
-ISO our flipped scum, Macro
-ISO everybody else for references to Macro
-Review Fish's posts to compare his results to mine

Let me start with ISOing Macro because I think I only have time for one of these things today.

Oh, right. Malee and Theo first.

ISO 0: Random vote on Vince. I've always thought scum are less likely to random vote their buddies. Town points for Void.
ISO 1: the Nacho vote. The only thing it shows me is how a Maleescum vote on a town player looks.
ISOs 2-5: I find it interesting that the only interaction here is with town players who are now dead. Malee doesn't appear to interact with buddies, or at least she hasn't in this stretch. Maybe a trend starting. Will keep an eye on it.
ISO 6: Quotes Rhinox on the whole Nacho-Vince thing and unvotes Nacho. Cites confusion. I don't think this tells me anything about Rhinox as he could be town trying to follow Malee's logic or a buddy either guiding Malee or trying to comment on it to look town.
ISO 7: Actually kind of reads like Malee may be talking to a scumbuddy in Vince. Not sure what to make of that.
Theo:
ISO 1: Interesting that he finds Fish posts that look scummy to him, but calls fish a null read. Maybe buddies? Calls Rhinox town. Not a big deal because most people seemed to have Rhinox as a town read at that point. calls hip "slightly scummy". That, to me, gives hip "slight scum" points. Alice is "probably town" to theo. I find that interesting because as I type this, I see that theo ended up voting Alice. Calls Kort "leaning town". DDD "leaning scum". Vince "null read. need to look". I find the Vince read interesting after Malee's Vince stuff. Funky "not enough to go on".
ISO 2: More, and I know I've used this term already this game, pot-shots at fish. Then calls Alice the "voice of reason". I don't think anyone else had that impression of Alice.
ISO 3: The change of heart on Alice reeeeaaallllllly stands out at first. But I think it's scum going for an easy town lynch, so I say that makes Magua likely town.

Ugh. 15 minutes before work and I still have to drive there. Hate to cut it this short, but the actual Macro ISO is going to have to wait.

Basically what I've learned so far:
-Magua=town
-Void=maybe actually scum now
-fish=looking scummish.

[Sleepless Assassin]

Magua, I felt I had a better grip on the game Days 1 and 2. I have no free time and my top scum read ended up being a mason and I had a strong town read on someone who flipped scum. Basically I have a ton to look at and not so much time to do it. The reason I haven't layed a vote is because if I were to do so, I'm not even sure where it would land. Maybe DCL. Maybe fish. Maybe rhinox.

[Sleepless Assassin]

I might be able to post tonight from my parents' house if I feel like making my girlfriend just kind of sit there lol

[Sleepless Assassin]

I doubt you want to die anytime soon, so she can understand.

^lol.

yeah, I'm doing that post now. The goal for tonight is to finish the read on Macro's posts, check out the vote counts on at least the end of the days if not a little more and if I have any energy and haven't been on here too long, I'll check out ISOs with ctrl+f for malee, theo, and macro.

[Sleepless Assassin]

Ok, so Macro's ISO:
ISO 0: the random vote on void is very interesting at that stage in the game. His slot is under suspicion so it absolutely had to be in his mind that he could die soon and knowing he'd flip scum, he had to have figured the post would be looked at. Could he have been setting up Void to look like his buddy? Or maybe trying to get Void to over react and look bad? Regardless of what he was doing, I don't see anything that makes sense for Void to actually be his scumbuddy unless it was a weird distancing thing.

ISO 1: The catchup post.

Fishy, Nacho and Debonair look town.

Based on Page 1 of his read. Nacho has already flipped town and DDD is likely town due to his claim. Would Macro give three town reads who are actually town? Slight scum points for fish.

Eh, Fishy's vote doesn't make sense, but he's likely town for other stuff.

Almost seems like he's excusing things that he sees fish doing that are scummy. Either he wants to keep his read consistant and thought fish's Page 1 was supertown or he's a buddy who wants to keep his town read. Really starting to believe this Macro-Fish connection quite a bit more now.

@Sleepless 86 Was Fishy suspicion still vibe-based at this point?

Should be obvious why I'm pointing out that Macro decided to bold this.

Um... Kortul's top of 112 is all "Look how town I am!" but the number of no reads (or equivalent) make this questionable.

Kortul's looking more like town, but:

At around 164 What exactly were your thoughts on Malee? Why did you not want to contribute them to discussion?

ISO 4:

I'm quite liking Kortul.

The first of these three quotes looks kind of like he finds it scummy but doesn't want to. Then he says Kort is a town read. Macro-Fish-Kort team maybe?

I've been feeling a bit iffy about Rhinox. Read under consideration.

I'm not liking Rhinox's change of vote from hiplop after fishy says they are town v town. I could see him as scum thinking "Well I don't need to be involved in that anymore." Still, I'm really waiting for the chance to ISO him before changing my townread.

After calling Rhinox town all through ISO 1, which I didn't see as notable until this. Let's see where it went though.

Debonair, did your vote on theo have anything to do with Voided?

Ok, Macro definitely wanted Void to look like a buddy after his flip. This is obviously intentional.

ISO 7: He has two lists. "Some form of town read" and "others". I GUARANTEE that one buddy is on each list OR both are "some form of town read" with the first being most likely:
Macro's town list, minus dead townies:
Fishy
Kortul
Sleepless
Hiplop

Macro's "other" list of those still alive:
Rhinox
DCL
DDD
Void

^

Guys, please look back at this list later in the game.

The most this tells me at the moment considering I have DDD and Void as town already, is that DCL and Rhinox are NOT BOTH scum. What it also tells me is that there is a good chance one of them is. But...{Fish, Kort, hip} is a pretty solid scum set right now. 1-2 scum guaranteed means at least a 33% chance. Yeah, I'm voting Fish at the end of this post.

Rhinox-> There are many things that make me think town, but there are enough things that make me question my initial read. I think that the attacking of hiplop is scummy and then withdrawing his vote and never returning to the issue. The other main thing is his vote and lasting suspicion on me. He doesn't agree with the reasons other people have for suspecting me, but has his own thing. He's too unaware of other people's thoughts and too concerned with having unique reasoning. Also his reasoning is bad. It's much easier for scum to vote off wagons than attract attention from joining a main one (especially one that was previously considered a townread)
More scummy, is that he's somehow gained a sustained scumread from this. He mentions my catch-up posts as making him have doubts of the slot, which suggests he was reasonably confident of us being scum. I don't see how town-Rhinox could have gotten there and I think scum tend to be more "jumpy" with their suspicions. (as in somehow getting a scumread off one thing and not really considering things properly).

It really seems like Macro likes to post the disclaimer that Rhinox is a town read before he criticizes any part of his play. As of right now, I think Rhinox is the other buddy.

ISO 14:

And you've pretty clearly lost your marbles.

^In response to hip calling him "pretty clearly scum". At first, I wanted to say a post like this comes from frustrated scum who is upset at the town players voting them, but could this be anger towards a buddy who is bussing? Hip seems certain Macro will flip scum. Meh. Not sure now.

ISO 16:

Alice, why do you think I'm scum?

Trying to get a townie to change their mind.

Alice

Magua is town.

ISO 22/31:

@Hiplop Can you say a short few sentences on why you think I'm scum?

@hiplop Why are you still alive?????

Ok, hip is town.

ISO 37:

There are only three people I don't have some sort of townread on: DDD, Voided, Rhinox, but I'm pretty sure they can't all be scum together. DDD and Voided are probably the stronger two scumreads and I'll explain why a bit later.

^Noting Rhinox there as the last option. I'm starting to be confident in Rhinoxscum now. Maybe more confident than Fishscum.

ISO 46:

@DCL: Do you have your own thoughts on why it's suspicious or are you just copying everyone else? (The latter is ok btw)

really looking for an opinion, trying to look like he wants an opinion to look town, or coaching a buddy? Hmm.

ISO 49:

You haven't, but the way you've done it is scummy.

I remember this little exchange with DCL and I'm starting to think DCLtown.

ISO 54:

Reasonably Strong Townreads:

4nxi3ty
Fishy
hiplop (the only thing about him is that he seems different from how I've seen him play before, so I'm not that sure, but logic says he's town)
kortul
Sleepless

Hmm. List hasn't changed since the first one.

ISO 68:

@Kortul: It's not rude of you to ask. I'm male, but what difference does it make to you?

Kort asking this looks like genuinely trying to read Macro. Gonna go ahead and say he's town.

So.

Conclusions based on a Macro ISO:
Rhinox and Fish are scum.

Vote Fish

It shouldn't be that easy, but Macro did a lot of rambling and gave us a ton of useful info. I'm actually pretty confident in this.

And glancing at Fish's list, it's not even close to mine. Hip and Magua fit as buddies??? Rhinox and Kort "pretty badly"??? DCL very badly??? Then again, Fish did look at everyone else's posts too, not just Macro's.

Meh.

My eyes hurt and I don't feel like doing more right now. I'd still like to:
-ISO everyone else, starting with Fish and Rhinox, with a focus on Macro's slot
-Check out vote counts, although this may not be quite as necessary with the info I get from ISOing.

If I don't get to do that, I understand. I feel I've figured out who the scum are anyway. I'd love to sit here and say "look at this after I'm dead" and say how right I am and all that, but I know once I die, I'm ignored. So I guess here's my thoughts and do with them what you will. If I'm still alive the next chance I have, I'll look a little deeper at the game.

Honestly though, I'm kind of curious and confused as far as why this hasn't been brought up. DDD, Hip, Magua, and Void. Can you list your reasons for thinking I am scum? I don't think I've seen anything yet.

[Sleepless Assassin]

[qupte="fish"]Because I exactly get a "funny feeling" that makes me want to think SA is scum because we shared the same wrong opinion. I think it comes from wanting to shift the blame for being wrong, and I've been trying to suppress it because I'm pretty sure it's illogical and doesn't reflect on SA's alignment. I can't see scumSA thinking to make this up, since it's pretty massively weak as a point against me and doesn't help him at all, so I think he's town on the same wavelength as me.[/quote]

Gah!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Why do you have to make this much sense right after I wrap up that last post...........

[Sleepless Assassin]

unvote, vote rhinox

I want to stick my vote where I'm most confident.

[Sleepless Assassin]

Can everyone give me a one-liner on what they think of Rhinox?

If it's as unrealistic a lynch as void says it is, I can switch to fish. Also, gonna try to pound out some more analysis some time in the next few hours.

[Sleepless Assassin]

Can everyone give me a one-liner on what they think of Rhinox?

If it's as unrealistic a lynch as void says it is, I can switch to fish. Also, gonna try to pound out some more analysis some time in the next few hours.

^was just about to start the next part of that analysis, but just realized I forgot to grab the laptop I was planning on using. I'll make some time as soon as I can though. The first part is fresh in my mind and I don't want to lose that.

Fish, fair enough for most of that. However, I'm not likely to be convinced by the whole counter wagon thing. I was in a semi-recent game where we almost lost the game on that assumption

[Sleepless Assassin]

Just throwing out there, id rather lynch DCL than myself or magua. Still thinking rhinox/fish though.

[Sleepless Assassin]

Id vote kort over hip, but wouldn't be overly excited about lynching either. Basically, I could settle for a kort lynch if I had to.

[Sleepless Assassin]

Ok. I have 40 minutes, so I'm going to try and ISO both Rhinox and Fish in regards to Macro's slot. If I have time, I think I'll do Kortul too. I really think Magua is town, but I guess he'd be next to be ISO'd followed by DCL.

So. Rhinox:
ISO 8: The part of the post where Malee's name is mentioned is more about Nacho, but it shows slight distancing.

ISO 10:

nacho...didn't vote vincent?? (now who's not paying attention )

Adds a playful smiley to a post that already has the tone of "lol you're doing what you call Nacho scum for but it's not scummy in any way".

ISO 11: I already said that I disagreed with this. Rhinox says scum would over explain rather than "oops and unvote" in the situation where Malee confused the whole Nacho-Vince did he vote or didn't he skimming thing. I didn't think anything other than that I disagreed at the time, but knowing Malee was scum, it sounds like he's trying hard to laugh off Malee's mistake (which I still don't think the mistake was any indication of her alignment, but Rhinox's reaction to everyone else's reaction to it definitely stands out that way).

ISO 12/14: Full of excuses for Malee. He starts with the argument that in order for Malee to be scum, the intent had to be there for the skimming thing (false). Then he uses "town do that too". Then, before a big deal can be made out of his defending her, he says other people are making good points on Malee.

ISO 28: Theo replaced in. Rhinox shoots down the Amished tell, but votes Theo for his flip on Alice.

It feels a little forced after realizing that Rhinox had been voting Alice just before this. Did he see them as buddies? If so, why switch? Or was Alice town at this point? Looking back, it looks like TheoScum makes Alice town for Rhinox. And looking for mentions of Alice, it looks like that stayed consistent. Interesting. Rhinox, how confident were you in your Alice scum read when you voted?

<- Ignore this. I see that Alice became town for Rhinox in ISO 19 because his beef was more of a "theory disagreement". Seems more null than town, but meh.

Everything until ISO 40 aka rest of Day 1: "Let's lynch Macro."

ISO 40:

I don't intend to lynch macro today. Nacho thought the lynch was stupid. LS in his dying breath said not to lynch macro. Two conf-towns not liking the lynch is good enough for me to leave it alone for now.

Seems like a lame reason to drop his suspicion.

ISO 44:

Its clear today my top 2 suspects would be macro or DDD. Thats where I was at at the end of the day yesterday. I had macro over DDD but a couple of confirmed townies believing macro to be town bumps DDD ahead of macro. DDD wants to call that a logical fallacy - its not like I'm saying "welp macro is town because dead townies say so", just that I can take that into consideration and trust it a little more. I don't see a problem with that. There's always MD threads about how no one listens to dead townies and scum know that and use it to their advantage. So yeah, I'm going to use nacho and LS reads as another data point. Not THE data point, but a datapoint nonetheless. And as for the VCA, when I said at the end "if DD is not scum then all the above is thrown out", its clear the implication is "iff DDD is scum, then this", and not "this, ergo DDD is scum."

Just over-justifying it now.

ISO 45:

I don't recall saying that because any dead player thought you were scum, I think your scum. What I did was reconsider how I felt about macro

^Why did this only apply to Macro?

ISO 52/56/57:

Like, I'd switch my vote to macro before DCL if DDD isn't going to be lynched.

if I have to choose between macro and DC today I see myself choosing macro.

I really don't like choosing between Macro and DCL. I'm going to renig on what I've been saying though. I like the company on the DCL wagon a lot more than the company on the macro wagon.

unvote, vote DCL

REEEEEEEAAAAAALLLLLLLLLYYYYYYY

HOW DID WE NOT CATCH THIS BEFORE

And then ISO 58, he hammers Macro unconvincingly and I'm pretty sure I remember him playing that off as "OMG IM SO TOWN NOW", but I'm out of time.

tl;dr: I'm still convinced Rhinox is scum and I want everyone to look at the switch from "Macro is scummier than DCL. I'd vote Macro first" to "*votes DCL*".

[Sleepless Assassin]

Rhinox, refresh my memory. Why it's scummy should go without saying. You said twice that you'd end up choosing our now-flipped scum over DCL and then when the time came to change your mind, you voted DCL and demanded a claim. It's a clear connection to macro.

[Sleepless Assassin]

Yeah that's 8 of the 7 votes. Checking twilight rules quick.

[Sleepless Assassin]

Ok, it says once your death scene has been posted you are dead. Here's a quick recap of my reads:
Rhinox=scum

Fish= scum read, but I keep questioning it.

Kortul/DCL= I just can't shake a feeling there is a scum here.

Hip=slight town

Magua/void/ddd= town

Id love to sit here and finish analyzing til the Mod posts a death scene, but all I have is my phone and I'm not sure it would help much anyway. I don't think anyone read the beginning of it.

I am very confident that Rhinox is scum though so please lynch him at some point.

[Sleepless Assassin]

Wait, my role is about to flip anyway.

I HAVE A GUILTY ON RHINOX.

Ok, peace.