1371: Futurama Mafia! (Game Over!)
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AngryPidgeon Glenn Peck
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AngryPidgeon Glenn Peck
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AngryPidgeon Glenn Peck
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My thoughts are that I'm tired as balls right now. I also think that Evil is the best lynch right now because at least one of the VTs is scum and seeing that scum card will give us more insight into the setup without diving into the PR pool. although admittedly Piggy used both her shots if she is town.. But I do think the correct pool to lynch from is {Qwintz, Eid, Evil} and of those Im not willing to lynch Eid or Qwints right now.-
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AngryPidgeon Glenn Peck
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Oh I misunderstood your question, haha. I mean.
I understand the desire to jump the gun and vote. We just had a huge night phase and people are itching to hit correct after the RC lynch. So I really don;t see anything inherently scummy about that. Especially since Im mostly confident that Cheery is town.-
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AngryPidgeon Glenn Peck
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@Eidolon: You are sure that the Smelloscope was a Track? I mean it makes sense, but just want to confirm that you got some sort of confirmation that it is.
I know I said this all of yesterday (and I did finally put in effort after a while), but I'd like about 2 days to read some ISOs and all before hammering. If Evil really did not submit an action last night, then he is a ninja (unlikely) or not mafia. There MUST be a mafia RB or Doc at this point in the game, and if Evil didn't submit an action, then he probably really is VT. So let me ISO Piggy, Eid, and Evil before a hammer please.-
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AngryPidgeon Glenn Peck
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Yes, definitely DO NOT HAMMER until I can do a reread.
I want time to do some setup spec and ISO those people. Piggy lynch isn't making me giddy and that makes me worried
The no track result on Evil means he almost has to be town.. Unless Eidolon is scum and lying, but she is kind of my top gut town read right now. I don't think Scum eidolon interacts with RC the way she did before his lynch. It simplifies things a ton in my head to assume Eidolon/Evil are town.-
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AngryPidgeon Glenn Peck
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AngryPidgeon Glenn Peck
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AngryPidgeon Glenn Peck
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Me, kind of? At least until I can make peace with some things (I mean the fact that I have a gut read on Eid and she is pseudo clearing Evil kind of narrows it down to YOU on the non-pr end). I wish I had someone I was 100% confident in being town around (Rofl, speak to me using your telekinesis!).
Venmar's claim does seem to hold up. His inventions are very appropriately named and I can't think of why Farnsworth would be scum. Venmar, thoughts? How likely is it that there is a town doc AND mafia doc? I've been loosely assuming that it isn't likely.
If Cheery is scum doc then he would have to be scum with either piggy (who then lied about her vig shot) or Qwintz (and he protected him from Piggy's Vig shot). If it is the latter then Qwintz would likely have had to make the kill. No other partner makes a whole lot of sense IMO because of this Vig/Doc complex. Basically it HAS to be piggy and she's lying or whoever she targeted is scum and was protected.
Cheery/Qwintz makes the setup: Gunsmith/Inventor/2Vig VS Doc/Goon/Goon? Which seems balanced at first glance.
Could it be Cheery/Piggy? That would probably make the setup: Gunsmith/Inventor VS goon/goon/doctor. I think that could be balanced, although I'm not certain. So if Cheery is scum then piggy or Qwintz (probably Qwintz) is the partner. I need to think about what happened N2 a little harder wrt to Piggy/Cheery team.
TL;DR: Cheery could be scum and if he is its either with Qwintz (more likely) or Piggy (less likely I think because of the setup and IIRC her reaction to RC watching Eidolon seemed really smooth to come from scum)
What if it isn't Cheery? I'm going to assume Venmar is town for right now since his inventions seem too good to be a fake claim. So the only other PR it could be is Piggy. Piggy/Cheery is possible (although not incredibly likely IMO). If Piggy is scum she is NOT a doctor. If piggy is scum with one of the VT claims then the set up looks like:
Doctor/Gunsmith/Inventor VS goon/goon/RB. with Piggy being probably the goon. This seems a little improbable since the GS is basically a cop in this setup (except for the WIFOM of scum claiming vig) annnnd it looks a little town sided I think. In this event she could be scum with Eidolon or Qwintz but probably not Evil since he didn't go anywhere.
So I think Piggy + Qwintz/Eidolon is possible. Evil is basically cleared here due to the negative track result.
If 2 VT claims are scum then the setup is Gunsmith/Doctor/Inventor/2Vig VS Goon/Doc/RB I think. This seems somewhat balanced and once again means Evil is cleared in all probability. So I think Eidolon/Qwintz is possible.
So off the top of my head here are the possibilities:
Cheery/Piggy
Cheery/Qwintz
Piggy/Qwintz
Piggy/Eid
Qwintz/Eid
I need to analyze all these possibilities WRT to N2. N2 is pretty critical in all of this. My extra double gut is telling me that it is Cheery right now.
@Cheery: Did you claim to target Rofl last night I assume?-
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AngryPidgeon Glenn Peck
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Re N2: we had a claimed GS and claimed Watcher. The scum team can ONLY kill rofl if they block RC. I believe Rofl was targeted by Cheery (because Cheery claimed he targeted him before RC claimed anything, but I need to reread that bit). If the team is Cheery/Piggy could that make sense? Cheery protects Rofl and Piggy kills Blastoide? In this scenario there is no RB, so they would know that ONLY Cheery would likely show up to RC's watch. That would make the next day spec go something like "LOL PIGGY YOUR VIG CLAIM SO FUNNY" so I don't think that the scumteam would set that up just to get Cheery some moderate town cred and let Piggy go down in flames. So that seems unlikely. What about Cheery/Qwintz? In that case, Piggy must have Vig'd the same person that Qwintz killed which isn't horribly likely.
Basically what Im getting from my quick analysis here is that Occam's Razor heavily suggests that RC was blocked and the kill happened on roflcopter and Piggy is indeed a Vig and Cheery is indeed a Doc. Derp. Needs morethoughtcoffee. This does reinforce my urge to keep lynching from VT claims though. I need to reread that bit where Cheery claimed. That could be very critical with timing, ESPECIALLY if it all came down after RC backpedaled off his watcher claim.-
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AngryPidgeon Glenn Peck
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Although Piggy didn't claim Vig until RC called her out on targeting Eidolon night 1. It seems highly unlikely she could be a goon. Her team would know they killed DGB night 1, and if she is a goon I think her initial response would be to claim VT, point at RC and shout "Lynch the Liar!" If the team is her/Cheery then this seems to contradict because Cheery is almost certainly some form of role (maf doc specifically) and her being a maf PR would make the set up far too scum sided. So I think I can safely discount the Piggy/Cheery combo.-
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AngryPidgeon Glenn Peck
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AngryPidgeon Glenn Peck
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In post 1025, Venmar wrote:I want to lynch Piggy, because i REALLY want to believe that Eidolon is town telling us the truth.
Why would you want to lynch Piggy due to this specifically then and not Qwintz/Cheery? I know you said you have a gut town on Cheery or what not.-
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AngryPidgeon Glenn Peck
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If Piggy flips town, then that means she killed Blastoide and tried to kill Qwints. That means that Qwintz was protected by a doctor or she was roleblocked (and Im assuming Cheery is claiming to have protected Roflcopter). Now, if Cheery is also town then we have an issue because he was roleblocked and Qwintz was protected. (Possible but Im still riding the assumption that there isn't a regular doctor and a mafia doctor). So this SEEMS to imply that one of Cheery/Piggy MUST be scum. And I don't think both are (previous post). So if I were a gambling man (and I am) I'd throw down on the team being Eid/Qwints + Cheery/Piggy.-
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AngryPidgeon Glenn Peck
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To further my train of thought, if Cheery/Piggy are both town then the last two scum almost have to be PRs (RB and Doc specifically). And they would have to be among Eid/Qwintz/Evil. Qwintz/Evil is thus impossible because of the negative track. Evil/Eid is improbable to me because Eidolon then lied for him and that would be suicide should he flip scum. Also they then protected Qwintz just to mess with us? Qwintz/Eid is possible and that makes Eid the doc / Qwints the RB. Circular logic is circular.
Anywho, the only VT/VT pairing it could be is Eid/Qwintz. The others are impossible or very unlikely. Even still, I find this one somewhat unlikely but possible.
This is all based on the assumption that Venmar's claim is too good to be fake.
All that said, I do still firmly think that both scum aren't PR claimed and that means I want to lynch from the VT pool.-
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AngryPidgeon Glenn Peck
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Cheery/PiggyGS/Inventor VS goon/goon?/doc? Kind of unbalanced in favor of scum team in this event unless its 3xgoon which is improbable. I need to reread the claiming timeline D3, but I think the claim timeline makes this unlikely.
Cheery/Qwintz - GS/Inventor/2Vig VS Doc/goon/goon
Piggy/Qwintz - GS/Inventor/Doc VS RB/goon/goon? - unlikely due to GS presence?
Piggy/Eid - same as above
Qwintz/Eid - GS/Inventor/Doc/2Vig VS goon/RB/doc - seems a little unlikely but possible.
Cheery/Qwints, you scum? Evil why you lurking?
P-edit: if its Piggy + Cheery/Eidolon/Qwintz(#Q) then why kill blastoide? I tend to agree. N2 really needs more consideration than Im giving it. Basically Rofl survived just to be NK'd night 3 do the idea that maybe they left him alone because they are unafraid of him seems a little absurd. It DOES seem likely that he was targeted by the mafia that night. But in that even we know that RC must have been RB'd and that Piggy IS a vig. This also implicitly clears Cheery. That makes the team Eidolon/Qwints.
Tl;dr of my memoirs? Qwints should probably die.-
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AngryPidgeon Glenn Peck
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Ok, so we entered D3 with the Watcher/GS claim.
RC states that no one targeted Rofl N2.
RC states that Tangion/Piggy targeted Eidolon N1.
Piggy claims Vig and that she doesn't know what Tangion did N1.
Venmar claims role madness.
at 631pm: I ask if she has restrictions
at 632pm: She says 2x Vig.
Cheery makes his first post to CC Rc by saying that he targeted Rofl.
Then he claims Doc.
Eid claims Vt.
P-edit: Ok, well I want to do ISOs when I get home.-
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AngryPidgeon Glenn Peck
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AngryPidgeon Glenn Peck
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In post 409, PiggyGal15 wrote:Toonfighter - I very much dislike this lynch, not to say I don't think TF isn't scum, he's just a null read. I would really love him to come out of hiding and talk to us. If anything, I'd lynch him for lurking... but at this point, I'm tempted to say it's inactivity, not lurking.
I will say this is a REALLY awkward bus/defense/towncred attempt if it is one.-
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AngryPidgeon Glenn Peck
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Derp. FTR, Im not supporting a PR lynch today. Reason: Venmar's claim is probably too good to be scum (in fact, so much so that he probably dies tonight). That leaves Piggy/Cheery. Im unsure what to make of them except that them being scum together is pretty unlikely.
That means that at least one of the scum is in the Non-pr pool. Lets kill it and hope its the RB.
@MOD: Is it possible to use items and roles in the same night? (Assuming you are willing to answer that).
Eidolon....................Eidolon. Ya. Her. My rescan of her ISO is........-
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AngryPidgeon Glenn Peck
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AngryPidgeon Glenn Peck
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AngryPidgeon Glenn Peck
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AngryPidgeon Glenn Peck
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AngryPidgeon Glenn Peck
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AngryPidgeon Glenn Peck
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AngryPidgeon Glenn Peck
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AngryPidgeon Glenn Peck
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In post 1052, qwints wrote:Have you re-read yet? This is not true. Hear are the relevant posts. First RC fake claims results. Then he says Piggy visited a living player (Eidolon) night one. Then Piggy says it is impossible. Only then does Cheery denounce the false RC claim. Here are the relevant posts, note that a Cheery/Piggy scum team could say this without fear of contradiction.
Actually I was thinking one thing in my head and typed something wrong.
Cheery has to have KNOWN that RC was lying somehow. He had SOME KNOWLEDGE to suggest that RC's claim was wrong. RC claimed that no one visited Rofl and Cheery immediately CC'd that claim. So basically one of the following is true:
1. Cheery is town and protected Rofl.
2. Cheery is scum and protected Rofl.
3. Cheery is scum and he/his teammate rolecop'd RC.
4. Cheery is scum and he/his team RB'd RC.
Because there is no way Cheery decides to call RC out as a liar unless he was certain of it. That would be suicide. But since RC was lying, Cheery can't really take any heat for the CC.-
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AngryPidgeon Glenn Peck
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Think about it though: does Piggy scum fake claim Vig in that quote in your last post? I mean why would she? If she is scum she should know exactly what her slot did and would know that RC was lying and could call him on it. Why fake claim vig there? Unless she really wanted the preemptive 'protection' from rofl's role and was willing to risk lots of town cred for it? I mean really? It seems unlikely her slot targeted Tangion N1 if she is scum, why would she conjure this whole charade here from nowhere instead of getting RC lynched and claiming VT?
P-edit: Yes, if they rolecop'd RC they would know. Seems improbable though.-
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AngryPidgeon Glenn Peck
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In post 1053, Venmar wrote:If you want to talk about a person who would make ABSOLUTE, PERFECT SENSE to be a claim that would be mafia, think of Dr.Wormstrom.
So Farnsworth is your safe claim?-
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AngryPidgeon Glenn Peck
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AngryPidgeon Glenn Peck
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AngryPidgeon Glenn Peck
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So I think I'm going out so my chronic-lurking self will likely not be on for the rest of tonight.
Ugh, I wish Venmar were less scummy. I mean post 1059, really? And speculation about his role? Derp. But anyways, I _think_ his claim still looks good because his inventions are all appropriately named.-
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AngryPidgeon Glenn Peck
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AngryPidgeon Glenn Peck
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In post 1066, Cheery Dog wrote:If Piggy is truely a vig, then yes the scum do have their own doctor.
This is a fallacy. And it makes me a little uneasy.-
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AngryPidgeon Glenn Peck
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AngryPidgeon Glenn Peck
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AngryPidgeon Glenn Peck
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Would scum qwints push town Piggy? I'm not 100% sure. A town flip from Piggy obviously makes him look bad because at that point it means either someone (Cheery or otherwise) protected him (making him likely scum) or someone RB'd piggy, making Cheery a liar. Derp. So I don't think Cheery/qwints is the team at least. If Qwints is scum, its with Eidolon.
"she doesn't know what Tangion did night 1" This seems a little off. Wouldn't she likely be able to see the QT and know what he did? And if not, she could still ask the mod. Her fake claim as vig could definitely come back to bite her.
I don't bite the piggy/Cheery team. I just don't think it would be very balanced for town (unless they are literally all goons somehow and I KNOW that isn't the case).
IMO, evidence strongly indicates there is an RB around. Framing Piggy becomes super easy with that in mind.But I do think that Piggy should ask Robocopter if she has any shots left.Getting RB'd would typically not burn a charge, I think? Although I don't want to assume that.-
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AngryPidgeon Glenn Peck
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AngryPidgeon Glenn Peck
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AngryPidgeon Glenn Peck
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Hm. I see.
I really want to believe you. I think. I understand that last night proves that if both you/Piggy are town then Qwints almost must be scum because you were RB'd which means he was protected (unless scum is throwing a curve by protecting town but I will assume not).
That means that either we are up against Doc/RB with Qwints being the RB or Piggy is scum (from your perspective anyways).
I think I'd be willing to compromise on Qwints as of right now. He could very easily be scum. Hell, he could be scum with Piggy even.-
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AngryPidgeon Glenn Peck
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@Venmar: I do intend to ISO people right now.
My general opinion of things is that Piggy/Cheery team is impossible due to game balance issues.
One of Piggy/Cheery/Qwints MUST be scum because if Piggy/Cheery are both town then Cheery was RB'd and Qwints was Doc'd by a 2nd doc (making him scum). If piggy is scum, then obviously she didn't vig anyone and Cheery got RB'd. If Cheery is scum then he didn't protect Rofl, his team killed rofl. The piggy shot was likely RB'd in that event.
I don't think Cheery/Qwints is the team, because then Qwints push on Piggy means that one of {Cheery/Qwints} goes down after a town flip from Piggy.
The only person that Evil can be on a team with is Eidolon really.
I think it roughly falls in to the following pairings:
Piggy/Qwints - somewhat unlikely, but possible. Following a piggy scum lynch, qwints gets kind of screwed by PoE.
Cheery/Eidolon- Note this is the only pairing that I think makes Cheery scum.
Piggy/Eid
Eid/Evil - Because really Evil can only be scum if Eidolon is lying.
Eid/Qwints - Making Eid a mafia doc and Qwints a RB.
ISOs coming tonight.-
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AngryPidgeon Glenn Peck
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Mirror mirror on the wall, why is Piggy's case so compelling? That slot HAS been scummy as hell.
Several replacements (its a scumtell shoot me), targeting me with the Fray for reasons, Vijay was not very town either.
Evil's speculation on N2 is pretty scummy too.
I'd almost bet a round of drinks on it being Eidolon/Evil after reading that.
P-edit: No, we were on such a good voting spree. Reading,..-
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AngryPidgeon Glenn Peck
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In post 1092, qwints wrote:AP, I think your setup speculation is useful - but I think you're overly confident that mafia have a rb
Why? N2 STRONGLY suggests it. as does N3. For there not to be an RB, then it almost has to be Piggy/Cheery.
Here is why I doubt its Piggy Cheery. Piggy killed blastoide N2 and Cheery did something to Rofl probably. If they are the team, then RC now knows that only one person targeted Rofl (Cheery), meaning that the Blastoide kill was from scum. Piggy claimed the kill BEFORE it was apparent that RC was lying. The only way it could make sense would be if Cheery is a rolecop and targeted RC (and somehow communicated it to Piggy that he was not in fact a watcher)..nothing else makes sense. Piggy's claim is suicide if she is scum and RC knows that only one person targeted Rofl. No! I won't have this.
So there is pretty much a guaranteed RB, unless its Piggy/Cheery and Cheery is an role cop.
But now if we assume Piggy is town, what does that get us? It means that either the scum killed blastoide as well (nope) or they tried to kill the one person that had any form of protection. Therefore, Cheery is town.
Piggy town confirms Cheery town.
Piggy and Cheery can't be scum together.
Therefore Cheery is town. Piggy _could_ be scum.
If I still keep assuming that Venmar is town (as much as it hurts), I pretty much have to believe that Cheery and Venmar are untouchable today. Let me think more about piggy.-
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AngryPidgeon Glenn Peck
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I still highly doubt Piggy/Cheery can be a team. That means its Inventor/GS VS Goon/Goon/{rolecop/doc} at minimum which seems out of balance. I also don't see why they would just kill RC at that point since they are setting themselves up for derp by not doing so.
So ya. Cheery is almost conf-town. Venmar, its simple. Your posts are scummy and your claim/inventions are pretty obvtown. Not sure whats difficult about that. Ugh.-
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AngryPidgeon Glenn Peck
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wouldn't** just kill RC. The fact that they would let RC/Rofl live in the hypothetical situation where they are the team boggles everyones mind.
So since they can't be scum together and town Piggy means town Cheery (because of N2), Cheery is conf-town.
Piggy could be scum. I honestly think Eidolon is the only legitimate vote right now.-
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AngryPidgeon Glenn Peck
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1) Setup balance indicates its unlikely to be them
2) If they are scum together then N2 doesn't make too much sense. Essentially Piggy killed Blastoide and Cheery performed some action on RC/rofl. If RC is a watcher and sees only Cheery target Rofl, then he knows the scum kill must have gone to blastoide. Piggy claiming Vig is then moderately suicide. Granted, RC claimed no results from his watch which leaves Piggy a little more open to claim the kill on Blastoide, but I Occam's razor strongly suggests that they aren't the team. Also Piggy did kind of loosely crumb a vig role in her opening post. Let me get a more solid answer out there after some thought. Its really important to me to believe that they can't be the team, because that 100% clears Cheery.-
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AngryPidgeon Glenn Peck
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In post 1110, Cheery Dog wrote:Either he was protected by his teammate who would be a mafia doctor, or piggy is scum for fakeclaiming vig.
Or Piggy was role blocked-
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AngryPidgeon Glenn Peck
- Glenn Peck
- Glenn Peck
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Aight, well I promise Im making progress on rereading slowly. I wouldn't be too heartbroken with a Piggy lynch, I still am having issues believing that her Vig claim comes from scum in that situation, but maybe.
I want to at least ISO Cheery, Piggy, Eidolon and finish rereading D2. As much as I want to call Cheery's interactions with RC scummy, I realize that RC was begging for votesD2all game.
Ya, if Evil is scum it pretty much has to be with Eidolon. Piggy's analysis is a bit screwy.-
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AngryPidgeon Glenn Peck
- Glenn Peck
- Glenn Peck
- Posts: 18863
- Joined: June 17, 2012
- Location: a Zulfy thread
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AngryPidgeon Glenn Peck
- Glenn Peck
- Glenn Peck
- Posts: 18863
- Joined: June 17, 2012
- Location: a Zulfy thread
In post 1089, AngryPidgeon wrote:I think it roughly falls in to the following pairings:
Piggy/Qwints - somewhat unlikely, but possible. Following a piggy scum lynch, qwints gets kind of screwed by PoE.
Cheery/Eidolon - Note this is the only pairing that I think makes Cheery scum.
Piggy/Eid
Eid/Evil - Because really Evil can only be scum if Eidolon is lying.
Eid/Qwints - Making Eid a mafia doc and Qwints a RB.
Evil can only reasonably be with Eidolon.
Removing Eid/Cheery pairing because Piggy town proves Cheery town.
I don't want to throw orderings out there until I finish rereading and doing those ISOs, but here is what I see most possible:
Eidolon/Piggy "I never bus as scum" - Eidolon. "Ya, well WIFOM and stuff" - Me.
Eidolon/Qwints
Eidolon/Evil
Qwints/Piggy
Are the most likely. Piggy/Cheery is _possible_ but I still think N2 suggests otherwise (as does balance spec).-
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AngryPidgeon Glenn Peck
- Glenn Peck
- Glenn Peck
- Posts: 18863
- Joined: June 17, 2012
- Location: a Zulfy thread
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AngryPidgeon Glenn Peck
- Glenn Peck
- Glenn Peck
- Posts: 18863
- Joined: June 17, 2012
- Location: a Zulfy thread
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AngryPidgeon Glenn Peck
- Glenn Peck
- Glenn Peck
- Posts: 18863
- Joined: June 17, 2012
- Location: a Zulfy thread
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AngryPidgeon Glenn Peck
- Glenn Peck
- Glenn Peck
- Posts: 18863
- Joined: June 17, 2012
- Location: a Zulfy thread
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AngryPidgeon Glenn Peck
- Glenn Peck
- Glenn Peck
- Posts: 18863
- Joined: June 17, 2012
- Location: a Zulfy thread
Basically one of you/Cheery/Her is scum to explain night actions (Assuming scum are not protecting town with a maf doc) and town Piggy means that scum most likely DID target rofl night 1 and cheery's doc checks out. Which means that one of you must be lying, and it can't be Cheery=scum, you=town, piggy=town. So it means that it kinda narrows down to you/piggy.
Note Im not saying exactly one of the group is scum, could be 2 in there. But I dont want to think that far until a flip.-
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AngryPidgeon Glenn Peck
- Glenn Peck
- Glenn Peck
- Posts: 18863
- Joined: June 17, 2012
- Location: a Zulfy thread
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AngryPidgeon Glenn Peck
- Glenn Peck
- Glenn Peck
- Posts: 18863
- Joined: June 17, 2012
- Location: a Zulfy thread