Mini 1631 - Mafia with a Twist 3 (It's Over!)

[serrapaladin]

Hi guys. I love me a good dethy. I assume we've all claimed and someone has tabulated stuff? Dino got mafia on NS, so we're one of the insanes.

Reading up now.

[serrapaladin]

I've scrolled through most of the game, but nothing is going in at the moment. mathcam's analysis is logic not maths. To evaluate the relative likelihood of different scumteams, you need to count how many distributions of insane cops could allow that scum team. I need sleep though.

[serrapaladin]

Except you can't really use those occurrences as probabilities. I'll whack out some likelihoods when I'm next at a computer.

In the mean time, farside's early point about boo's questions not directly contributing to sorting people really resonated with me. That's quickly becoming my favourite scum tell.

Varsoon is playing much more subdued than I have experienced him previously, though I vaguely recall some meta reasons for why that may be the case.

I find UT and reck immensely difficult to read, and their interaction and same investigation result doesn't really help. Of the two, I could see scum UT copying reck's result.

[serrapaladin]

Mathcam's theorycraft is mostly null, though his enthusiasm and reaction to skrew's death feel natural, as does his consideration of a hypothetical situation in which he gets lynched.

[serrapaladin]

Null as in not alignment indicative, not void.

[serrapaladin]

I've done the math, and I somewhat take back what I said yesterday. Assuming scum claiming randomly, the number of potential scumteams a player appears in is actually proportional to the probability of them being scum, since each scumteam uniquely determines who is insane. mathcam's analysis is indeed

That being said, the conditional probabilities are quite interesting and potentially informative.

The problem I have with mathcam being scum is that the person he works best with is, by far, boo, which I really don't see, since they would be weirdly cross-bussing AND boo would have decided to claim an inno on her scumbuddy. On that note, I'm also not a huge fan of boo voting against her inno. If boo is town, hb and I are individually about 4x as likely to flip scum as math, and std/UT are about 3x as likely. I guess that's consistent with her preference of reads over mathsy arguments, but upsets me on a logical level, since her mathcam read doesn't even seem particularly strong, and she's 0 for 3 by her own admission.

@boo: what was your conclusion about Varsoon's play yesterday? You made a point of bringing it back up at the start of this day, but then just let it go.

[serrapaladin]

Reck/UT's suggestion to wait for 2 more flips is pretty silly, considering tomorrow might be LyLo.

[serrapaladin]

@hb: I don't really remember much about your play except that the flame case was boring.

I still think boo is likely scum, except her and mathcam crossvoting at the end of yesterday is giving me pause.

Orci's flip doesn't actually give us anything, since mathcam was scum, and he was cleared.

Without assuming I'm town, hb and I are on 36% scum. Boo is on 55% scum. Then, UT/std are 27% each, and var/reck have a 9% chance of being scum.

Assuming that I'm town (or actually just assuming either hb OR I is town), boo has a 71% chance of being scum.

[serrapaladin]

There's too much symmetry to actually solve it, since hb and I are exactly equal.

[serrapaladin]

If boo is town, it's hb and either UT or STD. If boo is scum, std, var, hb, reck and UT all have equal probability being scum.

[serrapaladin]

If HB flips scum, that would conf-town you and reck.

[serrapaladin]

My only worry is that mathcam quite possibly told everyone what to claim.

[serrapaladin]

Yah probably.

[serrapaladin]

hnng

[serrapaladin]

We have 1 mislynch.

[serrapaladin]

So you're sure I'm scum?

[serrapaladin]

Well yeah, I'm afraid there wasn't much about your play that stood out to me. And by pure numbers, boo looks worse than you, plus I think farside made some good points against her.

Ugh I hope you're not bluffing.

[serrapaladin]

Actually, are you really confident enough in your read on std to risk the game on it?

[serrapaladin]

How confident do you tend to be in your reads?

[serrapaladin]

Woo fakehammers.

Well, it seems we've lost then, if you're all so sure of your boo read.

[serrapaladin]

I think given the player-list, scum would be pretty ballsy to gambit like that.

[serrapaladin]

That is to say stupid.

[serrapaladin]

So you're 100% confident that boo is town?

[serrapaladin]

Do you think honey bee would do this as scum?

[serrapaladin]

I'm paranoid that hb might do this as scum if her buddy is generally townread.

Otherwise my suggestion would be lynch boo, then me if she flips town.

[serrapaladin]

@boo, how about it?

We lynch you today, me tomorrow, and you even get to say whom we lynch after that.

@reck: Tell people to lynch her.

[serrapaladin]

Not scum :/

[serrapaladin]

Well, you can't really treat this as a dethy, since it's not solvable. We can maximise our statistical likelihood by lynching boo, but even if she's scum, that doesn't really do much to solve for the last scum. If she's town, there's 1 scum among me/HB and 1 among UT/std, so that's still 2 coin flips.

Read farside's D1. I found her point about boo's questions particularly compelling.

[serrapaladin]

I thought people had concluded we wouldn't both claim the same false guilty? Well, and I'm not scum.

Why do people (particularly you, boo) think I'm more likely to be scum than HB? I don't know mathcam, but would he do something as blatant as ask his scumbuddy to vote his counterwagons inthread?

[serrapaladin]

Well, the only potentially viable counter wagon to me is currently holding the hammer on my wagon. I'm thinking boo is scum, but if that's the case, this seems a lost cause.

[serrapaladin]

Mathcam's math was right.

[serrapaladin]

Lynching you won't break the game any more than lynching me or HB - it's just that the numbers have you as most likely to be scum.

[serrapaladin]

think it might be varsoon from interactions with boo

[serrapaladin]

Wasn't boo one of the most towbie people in the game? Just saying

Boo's trajectory on varsoon's weirdness about the setup is well weird. I think mathcam also held varsoon as mildly scummy for much of the game, with no proper reasoning or strong push. And couldn't you just see mathcam having him and var claim opposite results on orci? Since he decided to claim carefully, all claims had obviously been decided on, quite possibly by him.

Reck is town. HB is probably town for yesterday's antiques.

[serrapaladin]

Why am i scum and why is my var read awkward?

[serrapaladin]

Do you really think var would fake that?

Yup. I also think town!var would give the twist more thought.

[serrapaladin]

STD's posts today are also really lame tho...

[serrapaladin]

I'm not convinced he deliberately faked it, but I could definitely see it coming from scum.

[serrapaladin]

You'll likely be lynched tomorrow if I get lynched today, so if you're town, you really should want to make sure you consider today's lynch well.

[serrapaladin]

why am I getting lynched tomorrow if you're lynched today

Because no one is interested in Varsoon, Reck is probably town, and you look worse than hb.

I don't think hb's play yesterday makes any sense as scum with boo.

[serrapaladin]

Fine, then just someone hammer me today, lynch std tomorrow, and hope hb is right about Varsoon's play not making sense as scum.

[serrapaladin]

Sure.

Or you could discuss whether you think scum!hb would come out of the gate asking to be lynched in return for your and my lynch. Or justify your varsoon townread.

[serrapaladin]

I think reading through mathcam's ISO with the knowledge that he's scum with boo gives pretty good evidence for both hb and me being town.

@hb: yeah, but I thought more reck/UT than boo.

[serrapaladin]

Mathdino decides to go with the person below, which is something I thought about (actually I think I ended up doing that anyway though that wasn't my intention). Didn't mathcam suggest that? Isn't that a dangerous strategy for dethy?

Woah... Mathcam didn't suggest anything, except in your scum QT

[serrapaladin]

Well, I hope you're scum

[serrapaladin]

Gg. Thanks for modding, Thesp.

Reck bussing twice

[serrapaladin]

really won it for scum.

[serrapaladin]

And yeah, that makes sense in retrospective, but didn't seem likely at the time.

[serrapaladin]

Yup, I don't think there was a reasonable way town would have won after d2.

How do scummies feel about micro's?

[serrapaladin]

Reck is definitely a force to be reckoned with

ha