Soft assumptions: other townreads, e.g. SirCakez, Nacho, Fate, Vaxkiller.
If drealmerz is town, I'd be inclined to think 1/2 of Aeronaut/Aristophanes are scum.In post 209, camn wrote:drealmerz7 ---------3 ( Vaxkiller, Aeronaut, pisskop/Aristophanes, Pine )L- 4
mastina ------------2 ( drealmerz7, SirCakez, )L- 5
SirCakez -----------2 ( Monokuma, Fate, )L- 5
If drealmerz is scum, then this says nothing about the wagon, though it probably means at most one scum present. Regardless, SirCakez is town. On the SirCakez wagon, Monokuma (who has extensive experience with SirCakez) sticks out as possible scum.
It's worth noting that theoretically, Vaxkiller/Aeronaut/Aristophanes would be a viable scumteam that voted together, but I feel this unlikely.
Here the relevant change is that Aeronaut hopped onto SirCakez, and Monokuma hopped off.In post 324, camn wrote:TheRealGin-N-Tonic -1 ( Monokuma, )L- 6
Nachomamma8 --------1 ( mastina, )L- 6
drealmerz7 ---------2 ( Vaxkiller, pisskop/Aristophanes, Pine )L- 5
mastina ------------3 ( drealmerz7, SirCakez, BTD6_MAKER, )L- 4
SirCakez -----------2 ( Fate, Aeronaut, )L- 5
Not Voting -4 ( Secret Agent Jin, TheRealGin-N-Tonic, Nachomamma8, Prism, )
This, incidentally, is another theoretical spot where a scumteam could vote together: Fate, Monokuma, and Aeronaut. While possible (nothing in the Fate-Monokuma spew is beyond their ability to fake as scum), I find it improbable.
Also theoretically you could say the same of the drealmerz/SirCakez/BTD6_maker trio on my wagon, but fuck that idea; that scumteam makes zero sense in any way whatsoever.
So here, the only possible scum on Nacho is Fate.In post 443, camn wrote:TheRealGin-N-Tonic -3 ( Monokuma, Prism, Secret Agent Jin, )L- 4
Nachomamma8 --------3 ( mastina, TheRealGin-N-Tonic, Fate, Pine )L- 4
Fate ---------------1 ( Aeronaut, )L- 6
drealmerz7 ---------2 ( Vaxkiller, pisskop/Aristophanes, )L- 5
mastina ------------3 ( drealmerz7, SirCakez, BTD6_MAKER, )L- 4
Not Voting -1 ( Nachomamma8, )
The possible scum on Gin are Monokuma and Secret Agent Jin. (This wagon later goes to L-3 with my vote.)
Then, we get a lot of static. Like, a lot. Aside from my move, 520, 571, 600, and 692 all remain exactly the same. This stagnation is good reason to believe that the scum were lurking and/or inactive and doing nothing to change the gamestate. The lurkers/inactives were pisskop/Aristophanes, Nachomamma8 (at the time), Aeronaut, Secret Agent Jin, and BTD6_maker. Players doing nothing to change the gamestate is a little more subjective; all the lurkers/inactives automatically count, but you could argue any of drealmerz/SirCakez/Vaxkiller/Fate/Monokuma to be doing nothing to change the gamestate. You would find agreement on some and disagreement on others and who'd agree on who would be different person to person.
Basically, this isn't a tool to tell you who is scum, but can tell you who isn't, and that depends on who you feel in drealmerz/SirCakez/Vaxkiller/Fate/Monokuma counts as having tried to change the gamestate.
It takes Aristophanes replacing into the game to cause a change, which we see here:
...And that's only a change of both Vaxkiller and Aristophanes onto Fate: the second time we get Aeronaut/Aristophanes/Vaxkiller as a voting bloc in the game.In post 729, camn wrote:TheRealGin-N-Tonic -4 ( Monokuma, Prism, Secret Agent Jin, mastina, )L- 3
Nachomamma8 --------1 ( TheRealGin-N-Tonic, )L- 6
Fate ---------------3 ( Aeronaut, Aristophanes, Vaxkiller, )L- 4
drealmerz7 ---------1 ( Fate, )L- 6
mastina ------------3 ( drealmerz7, SirCakez, BTD6_MAKER, )L- 4
Not Voting -1 ( Nachomamma8, Pine )
If Fate is town, I'd expect a scum to be on his wagon at this point. How many, unclear; anywhere from 1-3.
If Fate is scum, then this says nothing about the wagon, though it probably means at most one scum present.
The most obvious change here is that the Gin wagon collapsed. I left it, and suddenly, the votes cascaded off of it: Prism to Monokuma, and Monokuma to Fate. The Monokuma wagon peaks here, and the Fate wagon gets close to its peak as well. (Prism switching to Fate was the absolute peak.)In post 907, camn wrote:TheRealGin-N-Tonic -1 ( Secret Agent Jin, )L- 6
Fate ---------------4 ( Aeronaut, Aristophanes, Vaxkiller, Monokuma, )L- 3
Monokuma -----------4 ( Nachomamma8, Fate, Prism, TheRealGin-N-Tonic, )L- 3
mastina ------------3 ( drealmerz7, SirCakez, BTD6_MAKER, )L- 4
Aeronaut -----------1 ( mastina, )L- 6
So on Fate, we've got four names who could be scum: this is not a wagon which looks good. While I am assuming Vaxkiller is town, I am not willing to buy this is an all-town wagon, regardless of Fate's alignment. I'm not sure all three scum would be on the wagon (though that's possible), but there should be at least 1-2 in there.
In contrast, on Monokuma, we've got only two possible scum: Nachomamma8, and Fate. This looks to be a mostly town wagon, driven strongly by town.
If Monokuma is scum, this was an all-town wagon most likely.
If Monokuma is town, this wagon has two possibilities:
-A mostly town-driven wagon, in which case scum are equally divided between the mastina/Fate wagons (this is my assumption), OR
-A partially-scum-driven wagon, in which case the Fate wagon is slightly less likely than otherwise to have scum on it and by proxy, the mastina wagon slightly more likely to have scum on it, but this goes to something like 66/33 rather than 50/50.
Here's the aforementioned switch. Prism switches off of Monokuma after Gin has left, bringing the wagon down to two voters, and Fate up to L-2.In post 1156, camn wrote:TheRealGin-N-Tonic -1 ( Secret Agent Jin, )L- 6
Fate ---------------4 ( Aeronaut, Aristophanes, Monokuma, Prism, )L- 3
Monokuma -----------2 ( Nachomamma8, Fate, )L- 5
mastina ------------4 ( drealmerz7, SirCakez, BTD6_MAKER, Vaxkiller, )L- 3
Aeronaut -----------1 ( mastina, )L- 6
Not Voting -1 ( TheRealGin-N-Tonic, Pine )
Vaxkiller, shortly thereafter, hops off the Fate wagon and onto my wagon.
On my wagon, drealmerz/BTD6_maker remain the more probable scum.
On the Fate wagon, Aeronaut/Aristophanes/Monokuma are all possible scum.
The Fate wagon pretty much objectively sucked every step of the way. The wagon on me similarly so.
At this stage, people who look quite bad by the VCA are Monokuma/Secret Agent Jin/Aeronaut/Aristophanes, with a side of BTD6_maker/drealmerz.
And then, after this, everything goes to hell. I'm sure on future days, VCs past this point will be useful to scumhunting. I think that so much as trying on D1 would be...less than helpful for today. I can quote our last VC, though, to give the general gist of the changes:
My wagon disintegrated. Vaxkiller went back to Fate. SirCakez for the first time went to Fate. Monokuma, interestingly enough, unvoted Fate. Prism switched off of Fate. Fate switched off of Monokuma. Aeronaut switched off of Fate. It's a whole hot mess of chaos. I'd say that this was scum being disturbed: the game had gone in their favor moments before. I was being wagoned, and Fate was being wagoned. Now I'm not being wagoned, and those extra votes have been thrown every which way, with Fate's wagon being a remnant of what it once was.In post 1434, camn wrote:Secret Agent Jin ---3 ( TheRealGin-N-Tonic, mastina, Fate, )L- 4
TheRealGin-N-Tonic -2 ( Secret Agent Jin, Prism, Pine )L- 5
Fate ---------------3 ( SirCakez, Aristophanes, Vaxkiller, )L- 4
Monokuma -----------1 ( Nachomamma8, )L- 6
mastina ------------2 ( drealmerz7, BTD6_MAKER, )L- 5
SirCakez -----------1 ( Aeronaut, )L- 6
Not Voting -1 ( Monokuma, )
This tells me Fate's probably town, though it doesn't illuminate who is scum.
I'd place reasonable odds on Monokuma, Secret Agent Jin, decent odds on Aristophanes and Aeronaut, and some amount on drealmerz and BTD6_maker, though how much, not exactly sure.
Those six are my current focus group. I know I have about five dozen new posts to read once I post this, so maybe that'll help refine this even further.