Mini 1881 - Cult of Kira [Game Over!]

[Fishythefish]

Hello everyone.

Newscaster claim: role is fairly NAI, but

thinking

it was a sensible claim makes TB likely town. I have no interest in that wagon.

Elena's hop here is ugly. Someone is considering claiming for no good reason - that's a shitty time to vote for them.

VOTE: Elena

[Fishythefish]

Why?

[Fishythefish]

OK. Why do you think Elena is town? I think the most interesting thing she's done is much more helpful for scum than town.

[Fishythefish]

"Uh, hmm, well, his claim is NAI, but I wouldn't wagon him rn"

For some reason I assumed you were objecting to my Elena vote, not this.

The role is NAI. Thinking claiming on page 2 is a good idea is town. What's wrong with that?

[Fishythefish]

Claiming early is scummy not towny

Nah. Scum with ThinkBig's weird role think it's scummy, so no way do they claim.

Pedit: Wow. Hitler by page 5. Maybe we should try just a little bit to be nice to each other? Tends to make the game more fun.

[Fishythefish]

I responded to that. You seem to be saying I'm on the fence about TB. That's just not true.

[Fishythefish]

RC: please could you explain? I don't get why you think it's Grey->Titus.

[Fishythefish]

Kuro is town that slip felt real I want to talk with fishy more to get a read on him but that's all I have for the moment

Hello! What do you want to talk about?

One question for you: when you voted ThinkBig early on, did you consider that you might be pushing him towards claiming?

[Fishythefish]

I honestly didn't think there were any pr's so no it didn't cross my mind but even if it did I doubt it'd stop me

What? You didn't think there were PRs, just after the guy you were voting for said:

Also, I have a role that is confirmable. Please don't make me claim.

I wanna talk on what would you do as cult leader care to tell me?

Seems pointless to say, but I guess I'd have picked Titus (as a competent setup wrangler in a complex setup) or a fairly random player from the players I haven't played with (who make the majority of the game).

Also Titus my vote on Kuro was for his tr on Grey not because the tr was bad per say I just really didn't like how someone can be that confident in very few posts at all the vote on thinkbig is because I think he's scum so I don't really see your reason for scum reading me

Also don't like this. Undermining townreads is comes much more naturally to scum than town. Because (correct) townreads jump out at scum as a danger.

[Fishythefish]

So - you thought someone was softing police, clearly might be on the edge of claiming, and you voted them? Outing the police is really bad here. So that seems like something scum would do.

Yeah, town might attack trs sometimes. Scum do so much more.

[Fishythefish]

Why not put your vote where your mouth is?

[Fishythefish]

Plus it was a very early soft something only scum would do cause you do not want to out yourself as police

Is this something you thought at the time, or something you are thinking in retrospect?

[Fishythefish]

I don't believe you.

Scum softing fakeclaims is really not a thing which happens. And I can see someone (as unwise town or scum) coming up with it as a post hoc justification for their actions. But I just don't see it being the conclusion you jump to on page 2.

[Fishythefish]

Why are you still voting ThinkBig now he's claimed and not claimed police? Doesn't that take away all your reason for thinking he's scum?

[Fishythefish]

Votecount 1.10

Elena Fisher (4) - yessiree, FishytheFish, 1 Shot Vanilla Town, Titus
ThinkBig (3) - KuroiXHF, Elena Fisher, Crystal Allies
Titus (2) - Creature, -Grey-
-Grey- (1) - RadiantCowbells
Creature (1) - ThinkBig

Not Voting (1) - beeboy

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

Current deadline is Monday, February 27th at 9PM EST.

Mod Notes:

None!

_______________________________________

Someone I sr

saying they can clear themselves was softing police in my eyes there go red flag Police have no reason to soft Mafia does

Oh, so you scumread TB before that, and the softclaim just made it worse? Fair enough. Why else do you think TB is scum?

[Fishythefish]

Elena: Not sure if you missed the question on the end - why

did

you scumread TB before the softclaim?

[Fishythefish]

I'm inclined to think that:

- Elena didn't conjure that up in 4 minutes from nothing.
- So she was basing her early TB vote on more than the softclaim.
- Thinking the softclaim scummy when suffering confbias is fairly believable. (And "This claim is scummy because I scumread TB already" is pretty close a

definition

of confbias).

UNVOTE: Elena

[Fishythefish]

What is a potato game?

[Fishythefish]

Yeah, because I know I'm not aligned with the Cult of Kira.

That's not at all what I asked.

You know I'm familiar with your lists.

Read my question and try again.

idk, Fishythefish looks different.

I feel different too. It's early game, so my reads are weaker/more forced.

[Fishythefish]

Votecount 1.12

ThinkBig (3) - KuroiXHF, Elena Fisher, Crystal Allies
-Grey- (3) - RadiantCowbells, ThinkBig, Titus
Elena Fisher (2) - yessiree, 1 Shot Vanilla Town
Titus (2) - Creature, -Grey-

Not Voting (2) - beeboy, FishytheFish

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

Current deadline is Monday, February 27th at 9PM EST.

Mod Notes:

None!

_______________________________________


Grey and Titus feel a little off to me. I want to think harder about them when I'm not sleepy.

[Fishythefish]

No; I didn't want to vote for Thinkbig--that's Yume's doing. With TB replacing out and seeming more like they didn't understand the point of my inquiry rather than being dodgy, I'm good with a vote change:
VOTE: FishyFish

Really want more from this slot.
I also find it really bothersome that FishyFish was complicit in inciting the Titus v Grey stuff.

Also, Snarky got back to my questions with edits to my posts. I'll quote them all here.

-V

Well, I certainly wish I had the skills to predict that saying "X and Y seem a little off" would incite a war causing one of them to replace out. Alas, I don't.

I don't like how strong Fishy came out the gates at Elena, then backed off from it, and kinda did nothing.

I want them to re-engage like they did early on.

-V

Why do you not like my play on Elena?

Agree that I need to re-engage; I decided I couldn't be bothered to rethink immediately after my read on Elena went away. I'll start now. But if you're voting me for not having any scumreads for 12 hours - I'm not going to be consistently meeting your bar for "engagement". And I don't think that's any kind of scumtell - do you?

---

Reading Titus and Grey back:

I doubt Titus is scum. From what I've seen of Titus, she'd be much less likely to replace out with an unusual role in this setup. I mean, I imagine drama could make her replace out either way, but the bar would be way higher as cult (and particularly cult leader). I don't see anything much wrong with her posting; the mason jokeclaim felt weird, but I don't really see why scum would do it more than town. I'm pretty much going to be judging this slot based on the play of whoever places in.

Grey is more likely. I don't like the focus on "it can't be me and Elena". Titus's accusations of Grey/Elena was really two scumreads, not a link. So the defence is a deflection.

But, really my gut is that both are town in this fight.

RC thinks I recruited Titus and then proceeded to lynch her because loose ends?

RC has two scumreads, which he hasn't linked. Focussing on that and saying "I can't be scum with Titus" is a weird reaction to someone voting for you. Obsessing about links like that seems likely scum (and would make even more sense as scum with Titus, but I'm not arrogant enough to think I have much chance of calling scumpairs on day 1).

VOTE: yessiree

[Fishythefish]

@V-head: OK. I think I did "have my hooks sunk in", and was happy with my pressing - but what it turned up was that Elena's early play just isn't scummy.

In a normal game with assigned scum roles, this would be true.

This is not a normal game.

My point, which is that neither of us would ever recruit the other, is perfectly valid as to why we can't be Scum together.

Yes, I agree that it's a perfectly valid point (it's hard to judge the strength without meta I don't have, but that's not important).

My problem with it is that it's a weird thing to focus on when Titus wasn't really linking you to Elena. Saying "ah, but we can't possibly be the scumteam, so your reads don't fit together" is an easy way to avoid the real point - Titus's scumread on you.

RC has two scumreads, which he hasn't linked. Focussing on that and saying "I can't be scum with Titus" is a weird reaction to someone voting for you.

RC said Titus was likely culted

RC said I was the original cult.

It's hard not to draw association from that.

Eh. I read these as pretty independent, though it's quite hard to tell.

Regardless - why jump on the link, rather than asking why RC finds you scummy at all? It feels rather like scum knowing they can jump on the bit of RC's thinking which is wrong/refutable.

@RC:

why

do

you think yess is scum?

[Fishythefish]

Regardless - why jump on the link, rather than asking why RC finds you scummy at all? It feels rather like scum knowing they can jump on the bit of RC's thinking which is wrong/refutable.

What do you make of the fact two different players who are otherwise in no way connected are taking issue with the theorized pairings as opposed to individual scumreads?

Yeah, the pushback on this, plus that total lack of interest from anyone, is making me think that other people are just thinking more about pairs than I have been.

I'm not all happy about where my reads are in this game - I have a few decent townreads, but no real clue who is scum. I'll try to fix this tomorrow, though I'm not totally confident I'll be able to - it's not really a lack of effort thing.

[Fishythefish]

I believe two of ([Crystal Allies], beeboy, RadiantCowbells, Fishythefish) is scum. The question is: who recruited who?

This isn't a bad list. I'd remove myself (obviously) and RC, and add Elena and yessiree. Why do you think those two are town?

@Crystal Allies:

why do you think I'm scum? Why did you think yess was scum? Do you have any other reads?

[Fishythefish]

Alas, this is mostly a prod dodge.

If it was easy, I could lynch Yessiree and then force you all to lynch Fishythefish tomorrow if he's town. Though, I'm afraid Fishythefish will pass the death note to someone if he's the holder.

@Creature: you seem remarkably sure that I'm cult leader (which I'm not). I think your argument is:
1) PoE gets your scumpool down to 4.
2) None of the other three would recruit me.
3) So if I'm scum, I'm cult leader, making me a good lynch.

Is that right (and complete)? If so, I think it's pretty weak:
1) Your PoE has to be so good that you've nailed both scum, or it completely falls apart. Nobody's scumhunting is as good as that.
2) Even assuming your pool has both scum - me being an unlikely recruit makes me an unlikely recruit. It does not make me a more likely leader.

I agree with Grey on the likely mechanics around kill/pass/recruit (also, I think it's really weird that the core scum kill/recruit mechanic is public but slightly ambiguous).

I want to hear more from Y-head about their scumreads.

[Fishythefish]

@1SVT: why Creature?

@Kuroi: what policy makes you want to lynch RC?

VOTE: Crystal Alllies

[Fishythefish]

Fishy
I suspect Fishy for his very weird and very forced pushed on Elena in the early pages: 190, 208, 272

Fishy's case on Elena was based on her push on ThinkBig. He asks her if she thought ThinkBig would claim after pressure, and uses this to start his prodding. Of course, no one would have predicted ThinkBig's claim so early in the game, so I find any use of this line of questioning as forced.

He later admits that his case was forced and Elene didn't do anything scummy. Furthermore, he fails to find any suspicion in anyone. Even his current vote is on someone without a posted reason. This is the stronger of my three reads. I'm very glad others picked up on it.



@Fishy, why are you voting Crystal Allies?

On Elena: it was early in the game, and nothing had jumped out at me from the first 8 pages as really interesting. I took the most promising thing I could see, and ran with it. That's what I meant by "forced". For a little while, it looked pretty promising, but Elena convinced me that she had read TB as scum before his softclaim, which made it pretty much null. Happy to explain more here if it would help (this is the one bit of the game I think I actually played pretty well ).

You say noone could have predicted ThinkBig's claim. I think you've overlooked something important to my case here:

Also, I have a role that is confirmable. Please don't make me claim.

VOTE: Thinkbig
Nvm this is a great vote

I would say 39 made ThinkBig's claim pretty predictable, and that's why I disliked 44. What's weird about that?

Why do you think my lack of good scumreads is scummy? Do you think scum would have any reason to play this way?

On why am I voting CA: they've been quite active, but not done anything much to work out who's scum - there's been sheeping, setup speculation, pressure votes, but very very little in the way of reads or of questions likely to help. Also, I have to admit, a bit of a lack of anything better - I'm finding this game hard to get into, and hard to get anything out of when I do force myself to reread it. I'll have another bash at this this soon; with replacements coming in, I'd like to turn over a new leaf.

fishy seems to be scum trying to fit in by jumping on wagons. especially as they are later on the EF wagon.

I don't think I was late on EF, or any other wagon.

[Fishythefish]

This isn't the PYP!Fishythefish I know.

Do you think the difference is better explained by a different alignment or a different level of engagement?

---

Fuck it, I'm going to pick some people I've got stale-feeling townreads on, read them hard, and post whatever comes out.

Kuroi

- Pregame - I wonder what on earth is going on there. It's pure mod-WIFOM, but it seems a little unlikely Kuroi is scum from it. Is the mod really bold enough to put the cult leader in post 0?
- Post 33 is about as scummy as you can get on page 2. Spends one sentence declaring a townread on Grey, and then two undermining it. Feels like scum worried about their read being suspicious or hard to get out of.
- Post 132 is the reason for my townread. Not knowing that cult recruit N1 would be impossible for cult (leader or recruit). How strongly should I weight this? Hard to know.
- I dislike the attack on ThinkBig for claiming/AtE. It's a stereotypical scumtell, not a real one. And TB's example looks particularly unscummy, IMO.
- The posts on RC - saying RC is active when scum but scum for being inactive - are weird. And a bit scummy. I think scum are more likely to be looking for easy attacks, rather than actually trying to fit RC into their mental model of RCscum.

All in all, Kuroi could well be scum after all. Does anyone think Kuroi is town for any reasons other than 132?

ThinkBig/randommidget

- Early claim; very likely town. Scum with a scummy role (and broadcaster seems a scummy role) wouldn't go around claiming it. Bringing up his own meta - also town.
- Unexplained return town read is scummy. Scum love mutual town reads.
- rm has done little so far.

This slot is still town. Early play from TB is very unlikely from scum.

[Fishythefish]

ok I skimmed, what the fuck is happening?

Not very much.
- There's a wagon on me because I'm playing worse than in my last game and Creature has noticed.
- There's a wagon on Crystal for never doing any scumhunting even thought they post a lot.
- There's a wagon on you, not quite sure why.

Holy fuck what do I have to do to get a yessiree lynch

Maybe explain why you want one?

[Fishythefish]

VOTE: Kuroi

[Fishythefish]

Holy fuck what do I have to do to get a yessiree lynch

Maybe explain why you want one?

I suppose this means you are leaning town on RC? Any particular reason for this read?

It doesn't mean that - it's just asking for a reason for his read on you. As it happens, I do have a TR on RC. The ascetic claim seems fairly likely town. It's quite verifiable, so unlikely fake, and would make a lot of sense as a town role in a cult-ridden game.

Did Fish just vote me the post after he said he town read me?

No.

It sure appeared that to me. It looked like he town read me then said "He could be scum", which is true, then voted me.

Nope. I don't have a townread on you - I think you've made one likely townslip, but a few other things make me think you're scum. If it's not clear "He could well be scum" means I have a moderate scumread on you.

[Fishythefish]

@Creature

- you didn't answer my questions here, here, here, here or here. For someone who thinks I'm scum, you seem mighty keen not to interact with me in any way. Why?

[Fishythefish]

So, cult is going to be throwing themselves out there on d1 with no concern for how their posts look?

Nah, not feeling it. Especially in a cult game.

Not sure what you mean by this. Is it about Kuroi?

[Fishythefish]

1) Because her early play.

2) Because it's leaving yourself up to hop on his wagon if town wants it.

3) Because 1. And I'm not sure about yessiree, just feel like he's more likely flipping town.

4) Yes, if I am PoEing my reads, I must see who's more likely cult leader from my PoE.

5) Feeling more like you got scum and got less engaged.

OK. 2 - no, I was saying he was town. 4 - your logic points to me as an unlikely recruit; not a likely cult leader. It's faulty logic to think I'm just as likely to be scum if you think I can't have been recruited.

More interestingly - any particularly reason you ignored all these at first? When I think someone's scum, I generally am keen to talk to them to work out more.

[Fishythefish]

On engagment/scumminess - literally no-one is as engaged with this game as most people in PYP were. Surely finding this game heavier going than PYP is not a scumtell?

[Fishythefish]

Huh. I just can't imagine not wanting to answer questions from my top scumread because they are hard. Might see if ignoring questions is something you did in PYP.

[Fishythefish]

I've found Kuroi's reaction to his wagon somewhat townish. Doesn't look like scum trying to save their own skin; the scumreads aren't what you'd expect, and the frustration is pretty convincing. I think I prefer a:

VOTE: Yessiree

With two days to go until deadline, we need to be making a decision - or scum can choose the lynch at the last minute. So if you are the only person voting someone, you should instead be choosing between the people who actually have a chance of getting lynched.

[Fishythefish]

Another reason not to talk about who might or might not be recruited: it might give scum hints about who the police are.

[Fishythefish]

Why Sparkles, anyone? I think Titus looked mildly townish, and Sparkles has done very little to change that either way.

[Fishythefish]

So, you think I'm scum because my wagon is hard to push?

In a game with 2/12 players scum, there's very little difference in how hard it is to get town and scum wagons going.

[Fishythefish]

Unofficial votecount - may well contain errors:

yessiree (4) - Crystal Allies, 1 Shot Vanilla Town, Fishy, Creature
Sparkles (2) - grey, yess
KuroiXHF (2) - Peabody, Agent Sparkles
RadiantCowbells (2) - randomidgetr, Elena
randommidget (1) - KuroiXHF
Elena (1) - RC

The current rather chaotic voting is a bad thing. Last minute wagons are bad because:
- Scum can control them.
- They enhance the chance of a police lynch by making claims less likely.
Let's just lynch yess.

[Fishythefish]

Prod-dodge. Sorry, haven't read this thread since a skim soon after the day started. Will catch up today.

[Fishythefish]

Setup thoughts: in summary, what CA said.

- Presumably, the mod died after the cult leader used "5) 1-shot KILL - you may kill on Kira's request, one time only. You die if you carry this out.".
- More tenuously, it *sounds* like the Kira's role says something like "you can ask the mod one thing a night, and they might oblige" - but they have no knowledge of what the question will or won't achieve. And they went for an extra kill, and here we are.
- So, momo was a special mod-weirdness kill, not a standard cult kill. And therefore the cult either recruited or passed off the leadership last night (or failed to recruit, or failed to kill, or...).

I have no idea if we'll ever have a good guess of the number of cult, but 3 certainly isn't unlikely here.

---

I jumped all over post 930 from CA in my first reading. But after reading the follow-up, CA's reaction is probably town - or culted last night (no opinion which). Partly the softclaim, but mostly the way V is indignant that people don't agree he's playing a good town game.

I'm not up for lynching: CA, 1SVT, Peabody, yess, RC, me, random. Some of those could have been recruited last night, but I don't think any was cult yesterday, and that's where I think we have a chance to find scum.
That leaves: Elena, Grey, Creature. In about that order, but that's not based on very much. Will look more closely at this pool.

[Fishythefish]

Just as a confirmation - I know of no reason my vote wouldn't have been counted. I raised the issue shortly after the lynch by PM (I got no reply, except for the acknowledgement in thread this morning). There weren't any votecounts after my 682 until very near or at deadline. So looks pretty certain to be simple mod error.

[Fishythefish]

I think Elena and CA are probably both town here.

Looking at Grey, I think he's playing rather differently from our previous game (where he was town). The abrasive playstyle is the same, but here he brings it up a lot more without prompting. Reads to me like he's using it as cover, and making sure he explains it, whereas in PYP he read like a decent scumhunter who just happened to be a dick as well.

Creature also feels different. He's less confrontational, less pushy, more willing to let things happen a bit. But more than any of those, he's

much

less vocal about his townreads. In PYP, when there was a wagon on someone Creature townread, he'd shoot it down. Here, he's much more willing to let wagons happen. I think he's less bothered about whether his scumreads get lynched; and that's because most lynches are equally good to him.

VOTE: Creature

[Fishythefish]

Reads to me like he's using it as cover, and making sure he explains it, whereas in PYP he read like a decent scumhunter who just happened to be a dick as well.

Nah, not really.

I'm pretty much disconnected in this game. Come to think of it, I was even more disconnected in PYP so idkwtf you're even talking about.

Decent scumhunter? In PYP DD? You're on crack.

VOTE: Fish

I'll go back and read it . But there, I thought you had strong opinions on things, they were your own and made sense, but you expressed them in a pretty abrasive way.

The point though, is that you never hid behind your playstyle. Here, you've been making a point of it - saying that people lynch you for it, that's it's the way you play, etc.

[Fishythefish]

Oh. Turns out I was totally confusing you with TWIE.

[Fishythefish]

Fishy and Elena get prods.

Received. Sorry.

[Fishythefish]

@Crystal Allies:

I think you should reread your fight with Elena now it's a little while ago. Elena is not scum in that fight. There's just no reason for scum to pick a fight like that with you at this point.

@mod:

I'm on V/LA from tomorrow until Monday (back for a good few hours before deadline, though). I might get on a bit, but might not post at all.

I think the current count is:
Crystal Allies (2) - RadiantCowbells, Elena Fisher
Creature (2) - 1 Shot Vanilla Town, FishytheFish
Elena Fisher (2) - Crystal Allies, randomidget
1 Shot Vanilla Town (1) - yessiree
Fishy (1) - -Grey-

My preferences are Creature > Elena > Crystal Allies. Elena's fight with CA *could* be scum, but I don't really think scum would pick that fight. CA I'm pretty sure is town.

One thing that pings me from Elena is the way she assumes that a) the God of Death is the reason we got a kill and b) that that's obvious. I certainly don't think the setup stuff today is obvious enough that it's not worth saying. Cult could easily misjudge how obvious the mechanics they already know are.

[Fishythefish]

could you give general preferences and not just comment on the wagons?

Sure. I think Creature is pretty damn likely scum - for the reasons I said here. I think Elena vs CA was TvT, and they aren't good wagons. Grey could be scum; everyone else I have some level of TR on.

Grey+RC: eh. The setup stuff wasn't exactly rocket science, but I think it was worth pointing out. I bet that several people would otherwise not have worked out what was going on (lots of people are somewhat crap at setup stuff, or just don't think much about it).

I'm going to be V/LA for most of the rest of the day. A wagon on me in that time would be a really bad idea. @yess, Peabody: anything you want to ask me or me to explain before I disappear?

[Fishythefish]

If we look at who's listing me as scum, we might get like two scum.

Why would this be a good way to find scum?

[Fishythefish]

Fishythefish, what I feel is that as we didn't lynch scum D1, my reads must be altered and I can't get any conclusion, making me demotivated, and thus making me post less.

Do you mean they must be altered by the cult recruit, or by us being wrong D1?

I don't think a gap in motivation explains the difference in your play here. It's not that you're doing less - it's that you're doing different things. I don't see any of the Creature who pushed against loads of wagons because of townreads. You have made big townlists, but not really done anything based on them.

Cult is different from normal mafia factions, they don't need to worry about looking bad, as long they recruit someone else to take their fall.

I still don't understand. It's not easy to townread you. Why should we think you're town so obviously? When I ISO'd you, nothing immediately pinged me as town.

@fishy - Is your vote on Creature informed by anything but meta?

Not really. If I hadn't seen Creature before, I don't think I'd SR him here.

Also, I don't scumread you for lurking, Creature. I will say I am getting a little suspicious of you after that line about those who FoS you are scum or likely contain scum. Do you think those who are FoSing you are more likely scummy for pointing out the lurking? Still, Still don't get your post.

That Fishy obvsetup comment that Grey pointed out is tipped me one way to vote over the other. I'm going off of PoE mostly at this point with some scumdar gut.

Why did the obvsetup comment make you think I'm scum?

[Fishythefish]

Well, this got interesting

@CA

: why do you think RC has faked a guilty? I see nothing in his posting that implies a guilty on you rather than an inno on Elena.

I'm inclined to believe RC here. And I don't think it's worth demanding more details - more info on exactly what RC is claiming doesn't really help us make decisions, but does help scum significantly.

[Fishythefish]

That's L-1. I'm ready to hammer. Time for a claim.

[Fishythefish]

Good thing I'm feeling lucky.

VOTE: Crystal Allies

[Fishythefish]

@mod:

While I realise some of the rules are secret, are they all defined up front?

Yes, all rules were defined before game start and do not change.

So, looks like there was a N1 recruit after all, and that "temporary passing" of the DeathNote is a complete red herring. The scum can "temporarily" pass it off every night, and survive the holder being lynched. Weird, but there we are.

I think Grey fits as scum with CA. He did some defending of CA Day 1, which isn't something Grey generally does a lot of. Beyond that, I don't have much of a read on Grey. Not sure what weight to put on 480 - a joke seems plausible, if very unlucky to identify the recruiter.

Of other people, RC, Elena and 1SVT look pretty good. In the critical time of CA vs Elena, they were all on the right side of things, and made a significant difference to the chance of us getting it right.

[Fishythefish]

@Peabody: I wouldn't out the crumb.

Of other people, RC, Elena and 1SVT look pretty good. In the critical time of CA vs Elena, they were all on the right side of things, and made a significant difference to the chance of us getting it right.

Probably worth differentiating these a bit, actually. I'm totally sure that 1SVT wasn't cult at the beginning of last night. Elena and RC also look good.

So, other people:

Town (at least until last night)
yessiree: an obvious recruit last night (as clear), but not DN holder.
Peabody: always struck me as townish - he's actually tried to hunt scum.
randommidget: I think the initial claim was town, and I don't think scum would have recruited later.
Grey: I'm a bit swayed by RC, who both has a reputation and a success yesterday. Without that - I don't really think I can read Grey. Weakly linked with CA. Decent shout for scum.
Creature: still looks different from our last game. And I still don't just think it's low interest - the little he's done has been different. Not either a good or bad partner for CA.
Scum

VOTE: Creature

[Fishythefish]

Fishy, why would you check 1Shot, who actively pushed a cult lynch, over me, a player you admittedly can't read AND was a latecomer to the wagon?

I've not claimed a result on 1SVT. But I'll note that he is a fairly heavily suspected player in a game I don't really have a fucking clue about, and so wouldn't be a weird investigation.

@Creature: what else do you think scum were doing if not recruiting? They don't seem to have been killing.

[Fishythefish]

The game may not be over. Most likely way not to be is if Creature is scum but we haven't won. No silly claiming.

[Fishythefish]

Creature is very likely scum. Pretending the game is purely proscum rolefishing (as it could never out scum). So we should keep quiet.

[Fishythefish]

So, I think it's most productive to look for scum who were scum when CA died. We have more information on them, they were around for the scum lynch, and they are probably a bit more likely to hold the Death Note.

The pool I'm looking at is Peabody, -Grey-, randomidget. Everyone else is mod-confirmed not scum that day, or obvtown that day. I won't go into details as to why.

randomidget - I think this slot was town Day 1. I don't see that claim as coming from scum. Since then, I have a mild gut town read. His posting looks like the kind of stream-of-conciousness stuff that comes naturally as town and is hard to fake as scum.
Grey - no new thoughts. Decently likely scum.
Peabody - decently strong gut town read from his replace in and later scumhunting. Also, voted Crystal at a fairly key time here.

VOTE: Grey

Now someone has pointed out the elephant in the room: I'm also very happy to just sheep RC here.

[Fishythefish]

Fair.

UNVOTE:

[Fishythefish]

Right. But is that really scum? The vote was quite likely to kick new life into the wagon, with people coming back or joining. Hopping off again doesn't change that, but abandons the bus and with it the chance of getting much credit. The whole sequence doesn't seem like it does much for scum.

[Fishythefish]

wouldnt they be more likely to give it to a later recruit who likely looked more town?

Nope. We don't know the rules around passing the DN, but it seems likely that passing has *some* cost to scum; otherwise, the public rules are kinda misleading and silly. So, the best guess is the only pass was CA offloading it.

[Fishythefish]

3) The Death Note can be passed off temporarily (for one night) without preventing the Death Note from being used to kill or recruit that night.
4) The Death Note can be passed off permanently, however no Death Note actions may be taken on that night.

[Fishythefish]

Votecount 4.5

-Grey- (1) - Peabody
randomidget (1) - 1 Shot Vanilla Town

Not Voting (6) - Elena Fisher, randomidget, FishytheFish, RadiantCowbells, -Grey-, yessiree

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Current deadline is Monday, April 3rd at 9PM EDT.

Mod Notes:

None!

_______________________________________


Not sure whether you're agreeing with me? The downside of the permanent DN passing means they wouldn't do that often. We don't fully know how temporary passing works, but unless the rules are fucked up that's going to have a downside for scum too.

[Fishythefish]

Agreed. Thinking about the people I'd consider lynching - I kind of doubt scum would spend a night passing the DN from any of you/Grey/Peabody to anyone else in the game.

[Fishythefish]

The mod said somewhere that the DN gets handed back before the next night. And wouldn't clarify what happened if the original holder got lynched. Worst case is that the rules are:
1) DN can be temporarily passed off.
2) If the "main" holder gets lynched, the pass-off just becomes permanent.
(In which case permanent passing is utterly pointless, so hopefully those aren't the rules)

It seems mildly pointless to speculate about whether we've already lost the game . May as well assume there aren't 4 cult.

[Fishythefish]

Well, if it does anything other than the obvious that would be some serious bastard modding :p

Just checking in, really. We should let RC do this thing and choose a lynch.

[Fishythefish]

Checking in. I'll have a go at doing something useful tomorrow.

[Fishythefish]

I originally thought TB must be town (Day 1) for the way he claimed. It reeked of someone who thought that his claim showed he was town (even if that was a weird thing to think).

Though the Town Messenger flips makes me doubt that. Mod WIFOM may be unwise, but two roles that similar seem more likely to be opposite alignments than the same.

[Fishythefish]

i cant have started cult dude so it is irrelevant. i have to hav e been culted at some point meaning i started as town regardless

Oh. Yeah, silly of me. Of course, even the Night 1 culted got a town role at the start.

[Fishythefish]

I originally thought TB must be town (Day 1) for the way he claimed. It reeked of someone who thought that his claim showed he was town (even if that was a weird thing to think).

Though the Town Messenger flips makes me doubt that. Mod WIFOM may be unwise, but two roles that similar seem more likely to be opposite alignments than the same.

i cant have started cult dude so it is irrelevant. i have to hav e been culted at some point meaning i started as town regardless

Oh. Yeah, silly of me. Of course, even the Night 1 culted got a town role at the start.

This snarky snipe doesn't really reinforce the point you were originally trying to get across

what part of randommidget's reply in 1764 made you go from "2 similar roles more likely to be opposite alignment" to "random was culted night 1"?

No snark intended! I was thinking that 2 similar roles were more likely to be of opposite alignment. random pointed out that this was bollocks - we

know

they were town at the start of the game. I'm not saying that random was culted night 1.

[Fishythefish]

ok but, why couldn't randommidget have been culted pregame?

He could have been.

[Fishythefish]

Probably time for RC to declare a lynch.

[Fishythefish]

VOTE: Peabody

Let's do it.

[Fishythefish]

It's confired that the 3rd Kira has the deathnote and that only 2 people are scum right now

N1: Pass to Peabody
N2: Recruit (On Pea)
N3: Pass
N4:
I think this helps prove I'm not Cult because Pea has no reason to pass it if I was on his cult team this also means I was pushing the death note holder if I am scum
Bottom line is we go for 3rd Kira because they have the deathnote

I'm confused by your sequence. I think we know:

N0: Recruit Pea
N1: Pass to Pea
N2: Recruit/pass
N3: Recruit/pass
N4: Recruit/pass

Where at least one of N2 and N3 is "pass". Leaving up to 3 scum.

And even that relies on the assumption that passing does actually take a night (as we don't know how a temporary pass works). That is uncertain, particularly as we've lynched two scum who weren't hugely obvious lynches the day before.

---

I think the scum are likely to be in Grey/rm/yess. I'm not super-convinced by rm being clear for exercising his ability; all we know is that TB *thought* they would lose it if culted; who knows if that was right. However, rm seems a somewhat unlikely DN holder. I think the cult would most likely park it with yess or Grey.

[Fishythefish]

I don't know if you're playing mafia or speculating, but probably not playing mafia

Thanks, that's really helpful.

[Fishythefish]

I don't know if you're playing mafia or speculating, but probably not playing mafia

Thanks, that's really helpful.

so you respon d to that and ignore my question?
nice

Sorry - I was just skimming the thread and that post annoyed me.

But, I'm not going to answer why not Elena. I don't think it's that great an idea to explain that townread (or others) in this situation.

@yess: is there anything in particular you'd like me explain/look at/whatever? What I said was this:

I think the scum are likely to be in Grey/rm/yess. I'm not super-convinced by rm being clear for exercising his ability; all we know is that TB *thought* they would lose it if culted; who knows if that was right. However, rm seems a somewhat unlikely DN holder. I think the cult would most likely park it with yess or Grey.

To break that down:
- I'm not explaining the scumpool.
- rm isn't town for doing the messenger thing.
- rm seems an unlikely DN holder because he was pretty highly suspected yesterday.
What in there is idle speculation, or is likely wrong? I realise that I'm not exactly setting this game alight (for which I apologise), but I don't think this was an especially bad post.

[Fishythefish]

I think Grey is the best lynch, and that this is going nowhere. I'll vote for him tomorrow unless someone has a good reason not to

[Fishythefish]

If it's random/Grey, I'd expect Grey to be the holder. random has been more widely suspected.

[Fishythefish]

RC: I'm fine with you picking the lynch. But please hurry up and pick it; we're going nowhere.

[Fishythefish]

Thanks everyone for the game, and to Snarky for modding. Sorry about my crap level of play - I don't know why, but I really struggled to get into this game, and particularly to get any scumreads I really felt strongly about.