Mini 1932: Dedede Fusion Collab (FIN)

[GuiltyLion]

looks like I'm late to the party

I don't have a lot of time to post today but I think I'll be able to read the thread tonight, I'll try to get a real post w/ some reads up before I go to bed

in the meantime anyone can feel free to fire questions at me if you want me to comment on anything in particular that happened in the past 11 pages and I'll answer them in my next post

[GuiltyLion]

alright friends I am caught up

think I'm about here
town: {Alisae, Oil Tycoons, Warthogs}
town-but-less-town-than-the-above-town-tier: {Wisdom, Bins, Va-11 Hall-A}
maaaaaybe town: {morph the cat}
null: {dreal, BYF, Nosferatu}
scum: {implosion, kraska}

gonna wind back and call out a few things with my next few posts

[GuiltyLion]

Zach and Dunn still being complete nonentities on page 7 is not a good look. Are you keeping the vote on morph because a scumread transpired? How serious was the vote to begin with?

What I especially don't like about this post is the way "page 7" is thrown in there as if a lot of things had happened in those 7 pages, and as if the game was advancing at a significant rate. My main impression of those 7 pages on first read through was basically a drawn out 1v1 between morph & oil tycoons with a few other players jumping in sporadically, that lasted no longer than one RL day. There were many other people who were/are nonentities by page 7 and it feels arbitrary that you singled out Zach and Dunn here. I don't buy it as a real scumread and it looks to me more like scum awkwardly trying to fabricate serious content.

And then I'm also not really understanding how you are scumreading Vallhalla and yet accusing Alisae of scumreading someone for lack of reads/content. Like here's your point on Zach:

this isnt congruent at all with what i know zach to be like. like...zero reads up till now from townzach? no way

but then you scumread Alisae because:

@implosion
A combination of alisae's over confidence beginning to feel unnatural at this point
And

flying completely under my radar currently

dont think i've ever played with implosion either

If I told you that is somewhat related to his scumgame
would that interest you?

this weird shade hes throwing into the air when we're only one rl day into day 1

dude u called someone scum for not being memorable/impactful enough when we were still 1 rl day into day1

kraska, talk to me about why Alisae scumreading implosion is scummy and how it is significantly different from your comments on the Z&D hydra, because I'm not really seeing this as a consistent mindset and I don't understand how you can say all of these things together. Also, talk to me about your implosion townread:

Implosion leaning town

not to mention that your point on implosion is not congruent at all with what ive seen him to be like as town. in both games implosion was on the table at multiple points in the games for not being assertive/present enough and he was town in both

why is implosion town in this particular game? Just because he was not assertive/present in other games where he was town is not a case for him also being town here, it's just a rejection of Alisae's reason to scumread him.

I'd rather see Alisae/implosion hash out their conflict about their meta together directly than see you jumping in to defend implosion

[GuiltyLion]

wrt to the implosion scumread, looking at his ISO I don't get the sense that he's trying to engage and sort people, it looks more like he's dishing out light townreads on people who are probably actually town, and coming up with reasons to townread them. He immediately nailed me as scum in a marathon game we had together and I feel like I don't see any of that killer instinct yet in this game. The initial Oil Tycoons engagement was awkward, and then this Z&D scumread here:

I agree with whoever said things along those lines that this isn't the town-zach I'm familiar with. The difference to my memory can be summed up as him being much more active/feather-ruffling in the other game which might be alignment-indicative but seems somewhat unlikely to be given him saying he enjoys scum because that's not a thing I expect to be lied about, but it could also be tangential to enjoyment of the game. It was a good question from morph though. Fortunately dunn was also in that game and also town and IIRC i read both of them fairly easily right up until I mishammered zach in lylo... but I'm not especially worried about sorting that slot. I am curious about more meta-opinions based on zach's opening from people familiar with his scumgame.

feels a lot more like scum crowdsurfing for opinions than town trying to form a read. The bit about mishammering Zach in a past game yet not being worried about sorting him pings me as an unnatural thing for town to say. I also don't like how he says "whoever said things along those lines that this isn't town-zach" - he should have explicitly looked up who said this if he thinks it's an indicative point. It feels like effort is missing here.

[GuiltyLion]

Why are there ten pages already? Ugh. Catching up.

Nb4 this is how he enters.

also I very nearly posted something along these lines yesterday, but then I decided not to be grumpy

VOTE: kraska

[GuiltyLion]

I'd rather see Alisae/implosion hash out their conflict about their meta together directly than see you jumping in to defend implosion

im not "jumping to defend implosion", im calling out a disingenuous read

The way I see it is,
Alisae says he has a meta scumread on implosion, and you disagree because your implosion meta is different than his.

Aren't you curious to see what implosion is gonna say in response to both of these claims? And my main question is why is Alisae's implosion read disingenuous in a way that your Zach read is not?

[GuiltyLion]

alright friends I am caught up

think I'm about here
town: {Alisae, Oil Tycoons, Warthogs}
town-but-less-town-than-the-above-town-tier: {Wisdom, Bins, Va-11 Hall-A}
maaaaaybe town: {morph the cat}
null: {dreal, BYF, Nosferatu}
scum: {implosion, kraska}

gonna wind back and call out a few things with my next few posts

Why are you townreading Wisdom?

cause he didn't try to stir any bullshit out of the morph/OT/warthogs round table and is also pushing kraska. I think scum!Wisdom could have tried to instigate more drama from what he had but the "nothing interested me" angle feels genuine and appropriate.

[GuiltyLion]

GuiltyLion, can you break down your read on us?






Should be clarified that I'm pretty sure this game k77 is getting scumread cause her play is jumpy and kind of impulsive.

guiltylion,

my iso is one click away, you are misconstruing my motivation and disregarding the context of my reads. i will not engage you if you wont stop treating my reactions to zach as something not unique to his personality/playstyle

I don't see this as scum because scum would see that their chances of getting lynched go up way higher for making a post like this. I don't see scum!kraska making it either, lol.

Oh here's the part where I tell you I've only played with scumkraska one time, I don't remember that game but rb carried and solved it in like 3 minutes. But I don't see meta as reliable for several reasons and it gets evidenced by how kraska "meta'd" me... this is directly tied in to her being scumread so I feel like I have to dissect it.

So I don't know why you've treated my meta so weirdly, kraska..my confusion with your meta argument was that you have pieces that are not accurate at all. Like town!zach gives reads? So scum zach cant fake them? There's no bearing for that. This is what I mean by impulsive.. the conclusions you come to are too erratic for scum here imo... but how do you arrive at them? Literally your interaction with our slot is the only thing pinging us. Is your vote still here for lack of a better option or are you going to clarify this

breaking down the read on you: I think the approach you took towards kraska (thinking that they're town while directly engaging with their points against you) has an overall townie feel to it, you don't seem particularly defensive and I think there's honest intention in trying to set kraska straight without escalating or arguing meaningless details too much. It also just kinda stems from how I don't think the arguments against you originally were particularly good and I feel it's likely there could be scum between kraska or implosion testing them out.

wrt the second part you've posted here: this is what I don't like about kraska - the overall VaHa scumread feels like the conclusion was decided first and then kraska is trying to justify it second. but I do share some of that hesitation about whether scum!kraska would be this messy/impulsive which is why I was trying to see her response to me poking about her argument with Alisae's implosion scumread (which to me looks like blatant hypocrisy - not a scumtell but something worth discussing) and I feel like I just got more messy thoughts in return. So how sure are you that scum!kraska wouldn't act like this?

[GuiltyLion]

I have been known to meta people entirely off marathon games (actually technically i was scum but i do think wheme was obvious town in fatboy >.>) but this is a misuse thereof. Marathon/irc/face to face are all very different beasts from forum mafia in ways that are meaningful here; I don't think I'm particularly aggressive in general in forum mafia except in cases where I get an early scumread that I feel solid on, which is maybe ~half the time or less. I can think of a few specific examples but I'm generally more consistent at finding town than scum. Marathon games force a degree of aggression by having short deadlines and less time for sorting.

I disagree that I haven't been engaging/sorting. I engaged Nacho and sorted him from scum to town. I haven't engaged much directly since then because it's the week and I've been distracted by shiny objects shooting past me. I would like to more.

Why do you think it's unnatural for me to mention the mishammering zach thing? For extra context I didn't actually scumread zach in lylo in that game, I just had a misplaced townread on the last scum largely based on his claim.

this is an entirely fair response

now I feel a little frustrated because I still feel like I want to scumread you but I've read this a few times and I don't think I have a problem with anything here. You asked Alisae about Nos possibly faking a post restriction but didn't provide your own opinion on it, do you think Nos is faking it?

[GuiltyLion]

I'm under the impression scum!kraska would anticipate I'm a difficult mislynch and not try to lock horns with me.

eh why not? Do you think you're too scary for most scum to argue with, or do you think scum!kraska in particular is more likely to go for easy mislynches? I think I personally tend to run towards 1v1s as scum because they give me something to do

[GuiltyLion]

breaking down the read on you: I think the approach you took towards kraska (thinking that they're town while directly engaging with their points against you) has an overall townie feel to it, you don't seem particularly defensive and I think there's honest intention in trying to set kraska straight without escalating or arguing meaningless details too much. It also just kinda stems from how I don't think the arguments against you originally were particularly good and I feel it's likely there could be scum between kraska or implosion testing them out.

What did our slot's actions WRT morph the cat/Oil Tycoons say to you in terms of the read?

I haven't looked at those interactions all that closely because I got a little skim-happy when reading through a lot of the morph/OT stuff and you buried most of your commentary on it in a spoiler, so I wouldn't say that actually said anything to me previously. I can take another look today though if you want me to form an opinion on it. I haven't been a fan of morph's more recent posts

[GuiltyLion]

I read it because I liked Nacho pushing that point. It was only near the end that I started townreading morph so it was worth the read, I think.

what made you start townreading morph

[GuiltyLion]

His null pile is where my interest in sorting lies right now.

am I understanding this right in that you are saying you want to use the nulls in my readslist to decide where to look? Why?

[GuiltyLion]

I think I'm okay with calling implosion town for now, but the Chiaotzu wagon is better than the Nos wagon
VOTE: Chiaotzu

[GuiltyLion]

I think I'm okay with calling implosion town for now, but the Chiaotzu wagon is better than the Nos wagon
VOTE: Chiaotzu

do you not think BYF's replace out was kind of town

or is it not worth putting weight in that

I don't really know BYF well enough to assess the replace out, I didn't see it as particularly AI

[GuiltyLion]

I'm concerned that drealz posted he had an amazing catchup incoming and then didn't post an amazing catchup

Where did the "amazing" bit come from here? dreal just said he had a catchup coming, said nothing about it's quality

I was concerned about BYF, but so far I like choatzu's content, and as you've mentioned the BYF replace-out had a town feel to it.

what did you like about choatzu's content?

[GuiltyLion]

What bothers me about him is that he seems kind of robotic. "Rote" is actually the word that came to mind earlier when reading the game. Maybe it's just a personality type thing but the tone of his posts just bothers me. There's no fire and conviction, and I'm a brimstone sort of guy.

hahaha I've been scumread early game for this before

the fire and conviction will come when I have reads that I feel are good, or if people start actually trying to lynch me. So far that hasn't really happened yet

[GuiltyLion]

they don't even have guiltylions in their read list
how dare they.

normally I don't put much stock in people forgetting about a player when doing reads but this is a notable point in this instance because they said they were likely going to end up voting me in 724

[GuiltyLion]

What led to your taking your vote off kraska?

You said the Chiaotzu wagon was better than the Nos wagon. From skimming your posts I don't understand why you're scumreading Chiaotzu, or even if you are scumreading him. Hence my request yesterday for you to elaborate.

kraska wagon lost momentum as soon as it started going and I want new things to happen

I'm not particularly scumreading Chiaotzu but I'm not at all townreading him.

He was the first (and really the only) person to make a fuss about the elapsed time between Nos' posts and the number of pages Nos was processing in those periods of time. That kind of observation from someone who wasn't in the thread when the time was elapsing shows a fairly detail-oriented process of catching up and developing reads.

I didn't really pay much attention to that the first time around, but I took another look when you posted this and I noticed he got it wrong, though.

Nos' "readslist up to 10" post was at 1:04 pm my time (go back and look at 415 if you want conversion to a different time zone, won't change the rest of my point).

His vote switch to kraska in 419 was at 1:33 pm my time, 30 minutes later.

His "a lot has happened since then" 423 was at 1:46 pm my time, another 13 minutes later.

The Chiaotzu post you're referring to:

@zach

an unfortunate happenstance
is kraska's recent post what causes you to look at my vote askance?

I swear askance was a vocab word
how the fuck am i such a nerd

@morph

that list was on page ten
a lot has happened since then

I'm taking another break because this game is ridiculously hard to read.
I'd like to point out the last line here before I do. Did you seriously catch up from page 10 until the end in 15 minutes? Then wtf am I doing wrong?

Current townreads: morph-Oil-warthogs-kraska-Alisae
Current scumreads: Nosferatu

a lot has happened in the 15 minutes I used to catch up 16 pages. That's like 1 minute per page. Just no

takes the 15 minutes between 419 and 423 and uses it to imply that Nos caught up during that time, when actually he presumably did so in the time between 415 and 419, which was 30 minutes. Also, the amount Nos would have had to caught up from 10 to 17 (which is acknowledged by Chiaotzu in his second line) is 7 pages, not 16 pages (which Chiaotzu then says in the last line). 7 pages in 30 minutes is far more reasonable sounding than 16 in 15.

So I don't see detail-oriented, because multiple details - the time span and the number of pages - are wrong and used to misrep. At best, it's a factual mistake and exaggeration from town!Chiaotzu, but I could see it easily as a non-indicative "detail" that scum!Chiaotzu decided to make noise about to justify a vote. I certainly don't see anything here that makes me think he's town, and even if he got the details right, I wouldn't townread Chiaotzu specifically for this unless I saw a scum!Nos flip.

to give an update on my reads, I like {Alisae, Bins, WWF} all as top town. {Nos, Wisdom, Va-11 Hall-A, implosion, Oil Tycoons} are also townreads but they're the kind of townreads I'd start to take a harder look at later in the game if I'm seeing a bunch of flips I didn't expect and it's clear something is not right in my read of the gamestate. {dreal, Chaiotzu, kraska, morph} is where I'd lynch if I had to choose right now.

[GuiltyLion]

It wasn't a "forget", though I didn't notice it when I read Cabd's planned post. He left you out intentionally and plans to revisit when the time is right.

also, I saw that you said this the first time around. It seems too much like a convenient excuse to coverup a mistake. If I was left out intentionally you definitely should have noted that when you gave the readslist to begin with.

VOTE: morph the cat

[GuiltyLion]

I'm concerned that drealz posted he had an amazing catchup incoming and then didn't post an amazing catchup

Where did the "amazing" bit come from here? dreal just said he had a catchup coming, said nothing about it's quality

don't worry, you won't have to prod me (:

I have a catchup post in the works!

When I read his post, I read the "!" to indicate he was excited about his catchup, hence it would be good, amazing, or at least something he was highly satisfied with. And that stuck with me throughout the wait.

this kind of thing reads fake to me too, like I don't think I have a problem with the explanation itself logically because scum or town morph probably thought that drealmer implied the catchup would be good, but the way it's presented is a bit too careful and rigorous? Like there's no "oops I guess I added that myself" factor to this answer, it's more guarded "here's exactly why I said that". I can't really justify this point it might be a ffery personality thing, but I think things like this cause bad gut feelings.

[GuiltyLion]

hahaha I've been scumread early game for this before

the fire and conviction will come when I have reads that I feel are good, or if people start actually trying to lynch me. So far that hasn't really happened yet

Link me where this happened.

TTH in Kids with Guns is the main one that came to mind.

I actually went and looked for other instances of this happening that I mentioned in the same game here,
but I actually can't seem to find any skimming quickly through some old games and searching for "robotic" "stiff" etc in my ISO. But at least in Jan 2016 I was under the impression that it had happened before as well, if that means anything

[GuiltyLion]

Which is what guilty lion did and part of why I find him scummy. And he's been meticulous af in a scummy way. Like hes echoing the reads of the consensus townreads and then nitpicks at irrelevant details to make it look like the read is novel. Remember when he probed morph about using the word "exciting" implying that's somehow a misrep of dreal?

You've obviously never read any of my towngames before. Nitpicking at semantics is what I do. You're also starting with the conclusion that I'm scum and fitting the narrative with my play. Obviously as town or scum I'm going to try to make novel points, otherwise there's no reason to post something that repeats what has already been said. And why is it impossible for a town!GL to have reads that line up with Alisae's at the time and also TR Alisae as a direct result?

And the dreal thing was because morph tried to make it sound like dreal had promised a quality catchup when he hadn't, to emphasize their point that he was absent and failing to deliver. Scum make that kind of embellishment all the time, it's worth probing when you see someone exaggerating anything

[GuiltyLion]

Also does anyone here really believe that chaitzu would waltz into the thread and declare a scumread and then fabricate a reason for it that can be easily verifiable by checking nos iso?

I don't think Chiaotzu intentionally lied, I think he made a mistake in looking at times while trying to push Nos for a convenient b.s. non-indicative reason that sounds good on the surface.

[GuiltyLion]

@GuiltyLion: Why does it matter who said that this didn't look like town-Zach? I would be able to see your point a hell of a lot easier if implosion was pushing a significant conclusion on Zach, but, as you noted in your attack on him, he very obviously didn't draw any conclusions there.

I wanted pressure on implosion because I was lightly scumreading him as I didn't think he was engaged or reading carefully, which I thought he would be doing as town. Since I've swung around on him and see him as likely town now, you're right that ultimately it doesn't matter. It was just evidence as to why I thought he wasn't reading closely and trying to form reads

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: Kraska77

This should be todays lynch I think. I don't believe kraska to be a tunneler as town and something about the way they push their reads feels off to me

I agree with wisdom when he said her reads seem shallow


@Wisdom let's get this wagon rolling

@Nos same perhaps

@Bins Sheep this I know you have it in you

@Alisae what do you think of this?


-DUNN

btw I'm moving you to lock town for this post, and I'd still join you on this

[GuiltyLion]

Asking Tammy where Nacho is might be a better idea; haven't spoken with him since like... Monday? It's been a while.

You aren't voting GL with us because...?

Feel like this doesn't quite match up with your earlier tome of doubt.

I guess I could vote here but I don't feel much conviction about it

VOTE: gl I guess

Not that anyone is particularly scumreading WWF as far as I can tell but this is definitely town, scum wouldn't post this while joining a mislynch because they'd be more worried about how this looks when I flip

P-edit:
morph - still waffling, liked their 1118 post a lot
OT - don't like the move onto me instead of Chiao, could be scum on me
Nos - Town
Wisdom - Town

I'll do a full readslist later as this was as much as I intended to catchup at the moment and I want to think a bit

[GuiltyLion]

alright I'm back from vacation and gonna catch up, apologize for low activity over the weekend

[GuiltyLion]

alright, so here is where I'm at now:

town: {OT, WWF, Alisae, Nos}
shakier-town: {Bins, implosion, morph, VaHa}
meh: {kraska, dreal}
scum: {Wisdom, Chiaotzu}

players/reads of note:

I think

Oil Tycoons

is town, and I'm not sure what everyone is seeing as indicative "weirdness" from Nacho. I thought their posting on page 46 was particularly good and I'd like the people strongly scumreading that slot to lay out a concise and specific reason as to why it's scum, because I feel I've lost those in the "soap opera". This particularly goes out to Bins and Chiaotzu.

I don't see anything wrong with

implosion

's recent push on dreal. It's pretty cleanly laid out in the posts prior to his vote, even though 1449 is a bit clunky, and implosion's point about the Alisae read I also find compelling and I think his irritation in 1489 about it being ignored reads genuine.

I have a couple problems with Wisdom:
1. The reversal from suggesting that dreal "scumclaimed" by refusing to answer his question about why his lynch is telling to then voting implosion for voicing similar and additional concerns. It seems disingenuous to me that Wisdom would pivot on implosion so quickly and the "ffery reminded me of dreal's meta" point doesn't feel honest either. Does implosion have meta with dreal? If not, why should implosion have also considered that dreal's behavior isn't indicative in this game?
2. The unexplained Chiaotzu townread. I'm fundamentally suspicious of anyone townreading that slot, regardless of what Chiaotzu's alignment actually is.

VOTE: Wisdom

I'm trying to keep this concise and I'm about to run out to trivia night for a couple of hours, but I'll be back later tonight and generally more involved in this game over the next 4 days so fire away with any questions at me.

p-edit:

@Bins

which posts/opinions are the most "forced", if you had to pick a few standouts?

[GuiltyLion]

ebwop - "wisdom would pivot on implosion" should actually be "wisdom would pivot on

implosion

dreal

"

[GuiltyLion]

I have a couple problems with Wisdom:
1. The reversal from suggesting that dreal "scumclaimed" by refusing to answer his question about why his lynch is telling to then voting implosion for voicing similar and additional concerns. It seems disingenuous to me that Wisdom would pivot on implosion so quickly and the "ffery reminded me of dreal's meta" point doesn't feel honest either. Does implosion have meta with dreal? If not, why should implosion have also considered that dreal's behavior isn't indicative in this game?
2. The unexplained Chiaotzu townread. I'm fundamentally suspicious of anyone townreading that slot, regardless of what Chiaotzu's alignment actually is.

both problems shouldnt be there given youve played with me before

the last time we played together I townread you and you were scum

I don't remember town!Wisdom making bad townreads

it reads like youre just trying to justify a hop on me

yes I am? Would you rather I just do it and not explain why I'm doing it?

[GuiltyLion]

yes I am? Would you rather I just do it and not explain why I'm doing it?

i would, yes
forced reasoning is for scum

also unexplained townreads ans unexplained everything in general is the definition of my playstyle so yeah

you have a few posts to reassess before i start scumreading you for opportunism

what makes my reasoning "forced" as opposed to simply being reasoning?

I don't mind the fact that it's an unexplained townread, I mind the fact that it's on Chiaotzu who like no one objectively should be townreading

I don't really care whether you scumread me or not and the fact that you're trying to bully me into changing my read isn't really making me want to reassess

[GuiltyLion]

like it seems like your push on implosion and now subsequently me is literally just because we joined budding wagons around the L-4 or L-3 range and gave reasons for doing so

feels pretty surface level

[GuiltyLion]

the thing I don't like about this argument is it seems like you could pull it out any time I scumread you in any game ever

[GuiltyLion]

I'll reassess if you give me a better case on someone else, doubly so if you can convince me what the actual problem is with implosion's points about dreal

[GuiltyLion]

that its shallow

"I see no town reason for drealz to act like this"

oh really? Play with town drealz one and you will see

but he doesnt care because he just wants to push the lynch

see but the thing is I feel like you were doing this yourself earlier until ffery pushed on it. and what if implosion's never played with town drealz?

[GuiltyLion]

Guiltylions recent posts are awful

in what way?

do you disagree with me about what I've been saying about Wisdom?

[GuiltyLion]

again, it's not that it's unexplained, it's that I would think town!Wisdom would be better than to townread Chiaotzu at all

like I just don't see anything Chiaotzu's done that makes him town and I categorically disagree with anyone who commits to a hard townread on him. It could be WKing or it could be protecting a scumbuddy, either way there's no pro-town motive I see in that read.

also I really want to hear why kraska specifically doesn't like my posts. It's garbage to say that they're "awful" without actually providing an opinion on what parts of them are awful

[GuiltyLion]

That's been happening for a while now. You dropped the vote when consensus about wisdom was dropping in general

yes because it became a legitimate wagon as he picked up some votes

I also explained that I didn't like his dreal/implosion pivot either

I want some legit wagons and I'll hop on anyone I'm not particularly townreading as soon as people vote there. This "anyone who jumps on a wagon is scummy" mentality leads to us putzing around at four or five different L-4 and L-5 wagons the entire day and never actually forces people to commit to stances. I'll vote you, dreal, Wisdom, and Chiaotzu pretty much interchangeably if any of them become the leading wagons, I'll explain what I don't like about them, and I'll argue against wagons on my townreads (aka OT). There's nothing scummy in doing that unless you think my reasons are disingenuous.

[GuiltyLion]

EBWOP - "I'll explain what I don't like about them" should really be "I'll explain what I don't like about that player", to be more clear

[GuiltyLion]

Since gamestart all your votes have been super convenient and backed up by meticulous reach or vacuous reasons like your most recent "wisdom has better reads as town". This isn't a general "whoever jumps on a growing wagon" mentality, this is unique to your track record so far

how are my votes super convenient if none of them have yet lead to a lynch and a flip?!

like you just can't say a vote is convenient unless you know that it's on a mislynch. If Wisdom flips scum then how would you read my vote?

and my reason for voting Wisdom isn't solely "has better reads as town", it has to do with his implosion vote following his dreal push/pivot and his Chiaotzu townread specifically because I don't see town in Chiaotzu's ISO at all and I'm baffled that Wisdom apparently does

I'm complaining about the mentality in general because it's the same mentality that Wisdom has used to scumread implosion and threaten to scumread me. It's a bad mentality. You can't assess a vote based on when or where it's placed until you see a flip. Prior to a flip you just assess the reasons presented for the vote.

[GuiltyLion]

town: {OT, WWF, Alisae, Nos}

Why is nos lock town for you?

I like his reads and I like the things he calls out, particularly wrt to you and Wis

[GuiltyLion]

question for morph, you say you "could see it coming from town" wrt to both dreal ISO and Chiaotzu ISO

why is that good enough to not lynch them? Is it also that you can't see their posts coming from scum? Why can't you see OT's posts coming from town?

[GuiltyLion]

I ~can~ see OT's posts coming from town, particularly Syr's posts. What makes you think I can't?

mostly just that you're voting them, while 'can see as town' was your reason to not vote a few other players

[GuiltyLion]

GL, have you played with me before of is it just because you played several games I modded that it feels like we have?

you were scum in Undertale mafia where you lurked out, but I think that's the only game I remember

I wouldn't say meta is primarily driving my scumread of you though

Can you walk me through your OT read, you had them as town early (635) and through 641, then scum in 1261 and then voted them and didn't explain. Why were they an early townread and then what was it that swung them to a scumread

also what are your thoughts on Wisdom townreading you

[GuiltyLion]

and I'll argue against wagons on my townreads (aka OT)

do that then
Why OT town?

as far as I see, the only real reasons people have given for them as scum is the meta "Nacho would have towntold in [x] or [y] specific meta-based way" (hydras) and "their tone is forced" (Bins). I can't trust the meta point as I have no meta with Nacho and I don't know the alignment of the players pushing the meta argument, and I don't think their tone has been particularly forced. I also especially liked the tone and content of a few of their posts, such as 701, 985, 1013, 1031, pretty much all of the engagement with Wisdom in the early 1000s, 1299.

Also Chiaotzu riffing on the "what's your GL read progression" is pretty evidently explained throughout their ISO as a miscommunication between hydra partners. I don't see any good votes on OT and I don't see anything that pings me that wasn't adequately explained.

[GuiltyLion]

yah, that's fair. I would still much rather lynch dreal or Chiao over OT today though

[GuiltyLion]

Chiao isn't happening in a billion years unless you've got a giant ffery-shaped muzzle.

I wasn't convinced by your reason for townreading him, I think it is genuine coming from you but I don't think scum!Chiao couldn't have faked the appeal to you. In any case, if you're that convinced that he's town then that just makes Wisdom look all the scummier for the weak sauce WK

[GuiltyLion]

This is not a townread
This is "I dont agree with the scumreads"

it's both

[GuiltyLion]

why vote Bins instead of dreal

vote dreal and I'll join on that if Wisdom isn't gonna happen

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: drealmerz

[GuiltyLion]

trust in the drealz lynch tho

[GuiltyLion]

chaitzu is town btw

Also someone asked me for the Wis TR of Chiao, here it is. And also this

either way there's no pro-town motive I see in that read.

or, you know, i can see hes town and you cant

[GuiltyLion]

I just don't get why the townread happened at all

Chiaotzu was a good wagon and he took an unconvincing and implausible stance against it

[GuiltyLion]

Also tbf I called it weak sauce, not weak ass

[GuiltyLion]

I just don't care much to try and get anyone to, usually when I try to get people to listen to me and make pushes I get highly SR for it btw, which is what I don't want to do / have the energy to do, especially on D1

why does this sound like you care more about not being SR than explaining your thought processes?

Like I've also hit the point where I'm fine with a multitude of lynches but I'm putting effort in to explain why I'm scumreading/townreading the people I am, and part of that seems to be explicitly why I'm being scumread. However, that's part of playing the game, hopefully if I'm flipped people will read through my ISO again and re-evaluate the things I'm saying and the points I've made and give more credence to them after they see that my intentions are good. Sitting around not pushing your scumreads or trying to get people to understand you is anti-town, even if you are town it just sets you up to be mislynched on future days.

[GuiltyLion]

It just feels like guilty lion/implosion/oil tycoons are working together this game.

mhm

also, with respect to this

it's extremely bad confirmation bias to assume you've nailed a 3 person scumteam on D1 in a 13 player game. Take a step back - if we assume it's 3p mafia team, that's 13 choose 3 = 286 possible teams, meaning the odds that the exact team is GL/implosion/OT is 1/286. 1 in 286 is absurdly low.

What you're doing here is taking three players you're scumreading and creating a narrative in your head that we're working together to further strengthen each of your scumreads, and that just makes you more likely to scumread each of us in turn and assume that you're right. If one of us is scum - and I'm telling you that I'm not - it's way more likely the other two are town getting manipulated.

Plus, if we are the scumteam, all of us piling onto a hypothetical drealmerz mislynch on D1 is bad play. It would make D2 pushes harder for us and put _all three_ of us into the line of sights for any townies who scumhunt off of mislynch wagons. If drealz is also town here, I guarantee scum are splitting the votes between our two wagons and keeping the option open to push the other one again tomorrow.

This reasoning is also why even though I'm independently scumreading Wis, dreal, kraska, (and Chiaotzu who is likely to jump on my wagon at day's end as well, unless he wants to surprise me), I wouldn't say all of them are working together here. It's far more likely that there's at least one scum in there (possibly two if drealz is scum), and the others are lazy/bad town.

@wwf, to me, this looks like Wis is just sucking up to you.

[GuiltyLion]

also, just for completeness sake, even if you assume that you're a confirmed town, then the odds of a GL/implosion/OT team would be 1 in (12 choose 3) = 1/220, which is significantly higher than 1/286 but still less than 0.5%

[GuiltyLion]

FYI, I'm largely distracted for the next ~week and a half because of TI (dota tournament). I'll be V/LA for it for a few days in a week.

also this is pretty much happening in my backyard, I live just a few blocks from Key Arena

[GuiltyLion]

This is such a generic and bloodless argument somehow.

what do you mean bloodless? and is it not an accurate argument?

[GuiltyLion]

I don't like the way that Nos has faded into inconsequentialities after the posting restriction thing.

also Nos really hasn't, go back and look at the points he was making against Wisdom and dreal. Just because he's not involved in long drawn out hydra meta discussions doesn't mean he's not involved

[GuiltyLion]

It would work with any three names. Like I could throw out a scumteam of oil-morph-warthogs and it's the same logic. Why are you not also getting into specifics that are unique to those three names?

because I don't need to? You're right that it would work for any three names. That's why it's always bad to do pre-flip associatives and tunnel yourself into scumteam narratives no matter which players you're looking at. The point is simply that it's bad that WWF (and Wis) are doing that.

And I also DID get into some specifics - we're all three voting drealz and I outlined why that would be bad play for hypothetical us-team. Another piece of evidence I could give is that implosion and OT have both gone to bat for me in the past few pages, surely if I'm their scumbuddy and it's looking like there's enough momentum for my lynch (which there obviously is enough momentum, given that you and Chiaotzu have both set yourself up to vote me and Alisae has basically made it clear he'll hammer anyone at this point), then would scum!implosion make a post like 1733 which would definitely draw attention to himself if I were to flip scum?

You could WIFOM yourself and think that scum!implosion is just trying to keep me alive as long as possible, but that's why getting into associatives in general is not all that useful without alignment flips, because you have to chain a bunch of assumptions about players alignments together.

[GuiltyLion]

And you keep acting like I should have some infallible meta way to townread you, despite the fact that I mistakenly townread you last time when you were scum.

And you're also ignoring the point that I made which is that you could make this bullshit argument any time we play together. scum!Wisdom is always going to try to emulate town!Wisdom and get away with bad reads and bad pushes, just because you may have a history of doing it as town too doesn't mean you get a get out of ja8l free card for it in this game

[GuiltyLion]

How would you like me to respond to that post, morph? What "big picture" do you need me to talk about?

If you're going to vote me stop pretending like you care about what I'm saying and just do it. It's starting to look more and more like you care more about having a history of things you disagreed with me on or points against me that you've made, so that tomorrow post my flip you can point to all these posts and say "see, I WAS scumreading him!"

[GuiltyLion]

If you're going to vote me stop pretending like you care about what I'm saying and just do it.

I wasn't planning on it. What makes you think I am?

meh, stuff like this:

Fair chance that GL, who we're not too happy with, will post before that happens. Fair chance that implosion will also respond to some stuff.

I ~can~ see OT's posts coming from town, particularly Syr's posts. What makes you think I can't?

^[question to engage me]

So you did.

Weak sauce doesn't really seem to be your problem with the townread.

Guilty; you'd make a great lawyer with your attention to nuanced details, but the big picture is currently flopping around on the floor and would really like some attention now.

feels to me like over the past few RL days you've been slowly angling to deadline vote me

[GuiltyLion]

What makes you think such a thing isn't doable here by a motivated scumteam seeing the big names and how they read people?

it's definitely doable, but the point is when you go back to the "1 in 220" argument it's just not

likely

. My impression is the majority of mafia games have scum pushing different wagons on D1, have scum avoiding all jumping on the mislynch early, have scum engaging in some form of distancing or bussing. Then, in this particular game, it'd require all three of us to be scum for it to explain our behavior here, and I'd be curious to see what the explanation is in town!GL world or town!implosion world and why that isn't just as likely.

Also since I know I'm town it's just wrong right out the gate, but obviously I'd say that regardless of my alignment.

[GuiltyLion]

the guy is oozing scum

if we're gonna play the "past games together" cards, I don't remember you being this confident about me when you caught me as scum in GoT S1E2 Micro, but I'll have to go reread that game

[GuiltyLion]

Lock Town Lion

i got news for you

fake news

any read on kraska moving to nos here? and does that change if you assume that I'm town?

[GuiltyLion]

also @everyone is the case for dreal-town anything more than "too dreal to be scum"

like even if you ignore his reaction to Wisdom pushing him his content in general is not good. And I don't think I've seen a single person refute or even attempt to argue against what implosion has been saying about drealz' Alisae SR being a convenient against-the-grain scumread that he can fall back on without pushing hard

[GuiltyLion]

on first pass I actually like Chiaotzu's reply to me

but Chiaotzu why aren't you considering scum!Wis could be townreading you if he knows that you're town?

I'm down to flashwagon kraska or Wisdom and will be around

[GuiltyLion]

I left wisdom because no one was joining there and I prefer to have a lynch more worked out sooner to EoD than this, believe me, I much prefer lynching a SR than someone I have in the category of "could be scum am ok with their lynch" (like GL is for me, nos has also joined that group, valhalla is no longer part of that group)

I can hop back on wisdom in a heartbeat if ppl are good going there, but c'mon, I hate the dillydallying

maybe explain why nos joined that group

I'd hammer nos at the very last second if no other lynches are possible but I'm like 70-80% he flips town

everyone keeps meme-ing that Nos isn't doing anything but can you all go back and read his points about dreal and Wis in 1438, 1455, 1460, 1466, 1468. yes this was a few days ago but nothing significantly really HAS happened since then and these were pretty original and genuine points from Nos

[GuiltyLion]

I'm gonna throw up some last thoughts now - I'm still figuring out my RL plans today so it's possible that I'll keep posting later today but just in case I want this post to be my "last words" as it were

first off, everyone

please

reread my ISO and reconsider my reads and your own after my flip. I know that's generally good advice and most of you will do it anyway but we've burned through 80 pages so it'll be tougher to reread D1 than normal, yet I still think there will be a lot there that's important. The only thing that drives me crazy about being mislynched is when people don't even bother to go back and reassess, don't bother to look again at all of my interactions or what things I called out and keep pressing forward with their own reads with little adjustment after my flip.

With that said, here's a sum up of where my head is at and what I think about most players

My top two townreads, the people I trust the most in this game, are

WWF

and

Nosferatu

. WWF is pretty much a consensus townread, so I think scum has town spewed that slot, and I've also found the vast majority of their ISO to be genuine beyond the realm of what scum could fake. I don't see anything wrong with their scumread of me, the playstyle issue has come up in the past with players from TTH to Persivul, so while they are wrong I don't see it as scummy.

Nosferatu

has been clearly getting pushed by scum on some level, I don't think he's faked the post restriction, and I think many of the things he does call out fit exactly with what I'm seeing and align with my own interpretation and understanding of people's posts.

After that, I have townreads where I believe that they're town but it's not completely outside the realm of fakeability.

Alisae, Va-Ha, OT, Bins,

and

implosion

are all at about this level. I would not be surprised at all if one of them is scum snowing me, but generally I think all of them have shown true efforts at poking and sorting people and come to general reads that I understand, even if I do not agree with them. As I've said earlier, I really don't understand the case on OT and if they start getting wagoned again I think people voting that slot have to do a lot more work to sell that read before people should entertain the lynch.

morph the cat

is a weird case - I'm still inclined to think town. The major hesitation I have is that they don't seem to come to many firm scumreads or conclusions outside of people being "above the lynchability line", which is a much easier and safer stance for scum to take than to actually push someone as scum. They've definitely put in a ton of effort into engaging with multiple slots and reassessing things they've said previously, but I have a slight paranoia that scum!morph could put in that level of effort as well. I wouldn't lynch them for a long time and wait to see a few of their scumreads flip before I come to a firm conclusion either way.

Next you have my nullish scummish tier where I am thinking that most of the scum in this game live.

Chiaotzu

I don't have as a harder townread yet primarily because of a lack of content, it seems he's always in perpetual catchup mode and some of the pushes he HAS made (Nos, me, OT) felt opportunistic and shallow. Please reread my points about his Nos misrep in 822 and 1117. I do see some sense of genuineness there and I don't think morph's meta point was bad either, so I'd say he's the towniest of the remaining players not in my town sections, but I don't think his play is at all outside the realm of fakeable.

The points about

drealmerz

have already been stated - his "wisdom and GL would be telling" point and subsequent defensive overreaction to being pushed on it was bad, his Alisae SR is bad, he sounds honest when he talks about mafia theory but he's been using that to mask the fact that he's barely interacting with or providing reads on players in the game. Also, if he were town I feel he would have been a juicy mislynch wagon for scum to convincingly jump on - the fact that it felt like he stalled out and got stuck at L-3 or L-4 or whatever for days while deadline approached felt like scum were avoiding voting him, for whatever reason. His Nosferatu scumread also conveniently materialized out of thin air as Nos became a viable deadline lynch. I townread everyone who voted him and stuck with their vote (Nos, implosion, OT), and it's a wagon that's worth revisiting after some flips.

kraska

I never felt has been honest in this game. From her Nos tunnel to her waffling on me, I think holistically it all looks faked and there haven't been many of her posts that I've read and felt looked particularly town-motivated or productive. VaHa's been championing her as town and I haven't been able to look at that as closely as I probably should have, but I think it's a discussion worth having because she seems to be shielded to some degree and yet I don't see why anyone would have her as particularly town. She reminds me of other players (Transcend, Eddie Cane, etc) who come from Epic Mafia and get everyone to townread them by "tone" despite the fact that she never pushed anything solid and hasn't served to build consensus or contribute useful points, instead just picking convenient tunnels and battles. Also, I still really dislike her post 1577 where she accused me of "convenient" votes on D1, because a) none of my votes lead to a lynch and b) how the hell does town!kraska know which wagons are convenient for scum vs which ones are not? See my 1580

and finally, that leaves my main scumread:

Wisdom

. I want to call out a few things, before Wisdom inevitably takes my flip on D2 and says "GL was bad town I don't feel bad about that tunnel/wagon".

- Wisdom has on multiple occasions said "you should know better" about me scumreading him for making bad townreads and reversing course inexplicably on dream and sucking up to WWF about me/implosion/OT. However, he has not responded to my counterpoint to this argument - that I townread him before when he was scum last time we played together (1512, 1748), and so therefore it's not only logical but in fact

likely

that town!GL would be more suspicious of him in this game, especially after having just seen his scumplay. Like is Wisdom's point supposed to be that his town-game and his scum-game are so distinct that GL should just always read him correctly? Am I not allowed to scumread him for doing scummy looking things in this game even if town!Wisdom has a history of also doing those scummy looking things? Further, "you should know better than to scumread me for doing this here" is also a convenient argument that Wisdom could trot out literally in any game ever that we play together (1520). Wisdom never addressed or justified the points I was bringing against him (I found his dreal pivot and his Chiao TR unlikely to be genuine or logical), he just chastises me and points to meta as a defense.

- Wisdom's main reason for scumreads in this game is "opportunism" and shallow jumps onto wagons, yet he has applied this logic extremely selectively and when it only serves to benefit him. Any wagon that goes to a lynch in this game - especially now that we're at deadline - is going to have a few people that jump on once it becomes viable. That's not a good reason to blanket scumread anyone, and if Wisdom were consistent with it he'd look at how kraska/dreal have jumped on and off me as the town opinion of my slot has changed. I even prodded him about this in 1799 and he didn't respond. And this also fits the same issue I have with kraska - it's absolute garbage to assume axiomatically that a vote is opportunistic until you see afterwards that the wagon was in fact a mislynch. If one's votes are on scum wagons then the "opportunistic" point falls apart completely, and we've seen no flips yet in this game.

- Wisdom's reads don't follow any logical progression or believable path. Look at what Nos called out about how OT/morph when from being TvT to two scumreads. His morph scumread in general just feels stale and like he's sticking with it for consistency's sake, and his dreal scumread - which IMO was very good - seemingly evaporated into thin air as soon as dreal wagon gained some steam. He "started scumreading" me for opportunism (1515) after which I somehow became "obvscum" (1819), despite the fact that I engaged him repeatedly and continued making a ton of townie and excellent posts (which you all will see for certain after my flip ). He's scum pushing a mislynch and he's hoping to play it off as "GL was bad" tomorrow. Don't let him do that.

[GuiltyLion]

Also, I don't see why scum-wisdom would back off your wagon and I do see why town-wisdom would do that.

why would town-wisdom do that?

I could see scum-wisdom doing it if:
1) drealz is a mislynch and he wants to make waves pushing against town voting "opportunistically" for the mislynch
2) drealz is a scumbuddy and he wants to distance but then take some heat off because a d1 lynch would be bad for them together

[GuiltyLion]

Like, that line of reasoning actively puts yourself way out there if you are scum and subjects yourself to a lot of scrutiny and puts yourself in the limelight in a way that doesn't really make sense to do as scum.

I'd also like to point out that I made this point as a reason dreal saying "I don't like to explain myself and I don't want to be scumread" in 1736 is scummy, as opposed to me actually going through the effort to try to explain my thought process despite getting scumread for it.

[GuiltyLion]

even after factoring in all of the recent things that made me waffle on gl and nos recently, i still end up with a readlist where theyre bottom tier. i just have stronger reasons to townread other people

what are your reasons for TRing dreal? I don't remember you addressing that read much at all, and when I cmd+F "dreal" in your ISO the only post I get that comes close to an explanation is this:

not much tbh but i feel like dreal should be read the same way titus is; if they're being conformists and their pushes and votes make a lot sense, they're scum

which is not a good way to make a read.

[GuiltyLion]

GL UNOFFICIAL VC

Nosferatu

(5): when warthogs fly, morph the cat, Chiaotzu, Oil Tycoons, kraska

GuiltyLion

(3): Wisdom, Alisae, Nosferatu

drealmerz7

(2): implosion, GuiltyLion

Oil Tycoons

(2): Bins, VA-11 Hall-A

Alisae

(1): drealmerz7

Not Voting

(0): none

[GuiltyLion]

this is a bad lynch but nothing left to do at this point

VOTE: Nosferatu

[GuiltyLion]

last last thoughts,

-I'm surprised that Chiaotzu didn't vote for me. I'm not quite sure if that's indicative of town!Chiaotzu but I'm a sucker for people reversing reads on me and townreading me, and if Nos DOES flip scum here I'd say it makes him nigh lock-town.

-drealz moving off the large GL wagon to vanity vote Alisae was pointless, if he's town it cedes more lynch control to scum and if he's scum then it keeps him off any deadline lynches

[GuiltyLion]

Alisae what's the point of being sanctimonious here

[GuiltyLion]

would have preferred GL to nos

then why were you voting Alisae instead of me?

this also doesn't seem congruent with what you said here

comfort to lynch order is:

alisae
wisdom
nos
GL

so why did I jump over nos?

[GuiltyLion]

I mean like
I only hammered because I had to for deadline
but nos was really obvtown and the scumreads on him were just super super bad.

yeh I agree with this, who do you think was scum on him? my first guess is kraska, maybe Chiao/OT if not her.

[GuiltyLion]

Why do you voted morph the cat back? I found no read progression and found it weird that is coming from a meticulous player.

a few points lead me to vote them at the time - they forgot me on their readslist despite me being where they said they would vote (this was explained by them saying they intentionally left me off, which felt like a lie), I didn't like the way they were townreading Chiaotzu, and I didn't like the small misrep about dreal. You can see these things in my ISO:

I'm concerned that drealz posted he had an amazing catchup incoming and then didn't post an amazing catchup

Where did the "amazing" bit come from here? dreal just said he had a catchup coming, said nothing about it's quality

I was concerned about BYF, but so far I like choatzu's content, and as you've mentioned the BYF replace-out had a town feel to it.

what did you like about choatzu's content?

they don't even have guiltylions in their read list
how dare they.

normally I don't put much stock in people forgetting about a player when doing reads but this is a notable point in this instance because they said they were likely going to end up voting me in 724

So I don't see detail-oriented, because multiple details - the time span and the number of pages - are wrong and used to misrep. At best, it's a factual mistake and exaggeration from town!Chiaotzu, but I could see it easily as a non-indicative "detail" that scum!Chiaotzu decided to make noise about to justify a vote. I certainly don't see anything here that makes me think he's town, and even if he got the details right, I wouldn't townread Chiaotzu specifically for this unless I saw a scum!Nos flip.

to give an update on my reads, I like {Alisae, Bins, WWF} all as top town. {Nos, Wisdom, Va-11 Hall-A, implosion, Oil Tycoons} are also townreads but they're the kind of townreads I'd start to take a harder look at later in the game if I'm seeing a bunch of flips I didn't expect and it's clear something is not right in my read of the gamestate. {dreal, Chaiotzu, kraska, morph} is where I'd lynch if I had to choose right now.

It wasn't a "forget", though I didn't notice it when I read Cabd's planned post. He left you out intentionally and plans to revisit when the time is right.

also, I saw that you said this the first time around. It seems too much like a convenient excuse to coverup a mistake. If I was left out intentionally you definitely should have noted that when you gave the readslist to begin with.

VOTE: morph the cat

I'm concerned that drealz posted he had an amazing catchup incoming and then didn't post an amazing catchup

Where did the "amazing" bit come from here? dreal just said he had a catchup coming, said nothing about it's quality

don't worry, you won't have to prod me (:

I have a catchup post in the works!

When I read his post, I read the "!" to indicate he was excited about his catchup, hence it would be good, amazing, or at least something he was highly satisfied with. And that stuck with me throughout the wait.

this kind of thing reads fake to me too, like I don't think I have a problem with the explanation itself logically because scum or town morph probably thought that drealmer implied the catchup would be good, but the way it's presented is a bit too careful and rigorous? Like there's no "oops I guess I added that myself" factor to this answer, it's more guarded "here's exactly why I said that". I can't really justify this point it might be a ffery personality thing, but I think things like this cause bad gut feelings.

[GuiltyLion]

realeo was just what the game needed to get even harder

scum are partying rn

this is an odd thing to say from someone who was scumreading the OT-now-Realeo slot

[GuiltyLion]

I also killed the GL wagon, I think.

you did partially, but let's not forget dreal also moved his vote off to park it on Alisae

[GuiltyLion]

Follow up question

But he then become shaky-town on your read list. I can give the benefit of doubt that the read progression is not visible is because of activity issue, but how does scum -> shaky town?

I don't think there was any one post in particular that caused me to re-evaluate, but the overall volume of morph's posting and level of sustained engagement with people over various things they had said started to feel more and more like a town ISO than a scum one. They gave a good reason for continuing to townread Chiaotzu, they pushed in some directions I thought were logical for a town mindset, and overall their conversation with me has felt like one with intent to sort and understand rather than to ultimately push or misrep. I've come to understand their style of play in this game a bit better and I can see where they were coming from with earlier posts I didn't like

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: Wisdom

who is opposed to this wagon and why

dreal

- I don't want to keep scumreading you if I am mistaken about your slot, this is a reach out. Please explain why you weren't voting a useful wagon at deadline yesterday and why you then didn't vote me despite apparently preferring my lynch to Nos'. And also when it was that I became a more preferred lynch to Nos, considering that at 1865 it was the reverse and also saying this

kraska, I askya, can you get back on nos?
the wagon composition of GL gives me huge pause

and this

nos is the bigger wagon pretty sure, especially if you consider my vote on there

which then became this

well I was about to check to see how long until deadling and if I had time to watch a movie (subway !) , would have preferred GL to nos but at least something got done

[GuiltyLion]

who am I scum with, Wisdom

[GuiltyLion]

hi - I apologize for the absence, took a weekend trip and probably should have gone on V/LA. I don't have time yet to give this game attention but I'll be here tonight, expect content from me in 5-6 hours and more after that

[GuiltyLion]

alright I have read through the pages since my Saturday posts on a surface level, but nothing particularly jumped out at me. I'm gonna start some threads of conversation with my next few posts

BUT FIRST

I see this talk about scumhunting on the Nos wagon. I think it's pretty evident that kraska is the scummiest person on the Nos wagon, given that she pushed her shitty tunnel all day and ignored Nos attempts to reach out and engage with her, plus danced back and forth on my wagon as well as if she didn't particularly care about lynching either of us.

who is townreading kraska and why

?

[GuiltyLion]

One of the things I do sometimes, and did here because it works to do so with the viable counterwagon scenario, is to voice my willingness to vote a wagon before voting it (only if I'm actually willing to vote it, however) and see what happens to things after that (as a way to generate reads.) When I did it with the nos wagon I did at the time feel more okay to vote him than when I came back to the thread in a bit and saw how things were going.

what reads in particular did you get from doing this exercise with the Nos wagon

like I said somewhere earlier in my ISO, you talk a lot about theory but I feel like you don't talk about this particular game

[GuiltyLion]

@Wisdom

What you think of dreal?

cant read him, wont object to him hanging

I think this is a bit odd considering Wis wouldn't vote him yesterday and explicitly said he didn't want to because town!dreal is scummy

Wisdom had several opportunities to join a juicy leading dreal wagon:

Votecount 1.23

What do you mean it's been more than a day since the last votecount?
(Translation: I'm sorry.)

drealmerz7

(4): implosion, Nosferatu, Oil Tycoons, GuiltyLion

Nosferatu

(3): kraska77, when warthogs fly, Chiaotzu

GuiltyLion

(2): Wisdom, drealmerz7

Oil Tycoons

(1): Bins

Wisdom

(1): VA-11 Hall-A

Not Voting

(2): morph the cat, Alisae

13 players, 7 majority.

Deadline in (expired on 2017-08-06 16:32:00)

Bins is V/LA until 8/8.

Votecount 1.24

ZZ

drealmerz7

(4): implosion, Nosferatu, Oil Tycoons, GuiltyLion

Nosferatu

(3): kraska77, when warthogs fly, Chiaotzu

Alisae

(1): drealmerz7

GuiltyLion

(1): Wisdom

kraska77

(1): Alisae

Oil Tycoons

(1): Bins

Wisdom

(1): VA-11 Hall-A

Not Voting

(1): morph the cat

13 players, 7 majority.

Deadline in (expired on 2017-08-06 16:32:00)

Bins is V/LA until 8/8.

Votecount 1.25

I'm folding laundry

shudders violently

drealmerz7

(3): implosion, Oil Tycoons, GuiltyLion

Nosferatu

(3): kraska77, when warthogs fly, Chiaotzu

implosion

(2): Nosferatu, Alisae

Alisae

(1): drealmerz7

GuiltyLion

(1): Wisdom

Oil Tycoons

(1): Bins

Wisdom

(1): VA-11 Hall-A

Not Voting

(1): morph the cat

13 players, 7 majority.

Deadline in (expired on 2017-08-06 16:32:00)

Bins is V/LA until 8/8.
Prodding Oil Tycoons.

but kept his vote on me the whole time instead, and actively encouraged people to vote me WHILE ALSO noting that there was not time left

are you kidding me
how are there only two votes on obvscum gl

and

Also, deadline in 1 day

I just noticed

and

theres no time
vote gl

[GuiltyLion]

I don't see how that post can come from town wisdom

why are you not voting him

[GuiltyLion]

i townread wisdom, hes fine w me

i start to gain suspicion, he scumreads me.

classic

also why the townread now? I thought you wanted to vote me. Surely you dont think ill eat this appeasing

this is the second time Wisdom has just completely misunderstood a relatively understandable/not-really-all-that-confusing post, the first time being here:

I'll probably join any wagon that spawns on any of {drealmerz, wisdom, nos, chiaotzu} if a significant wagon shows up. Drealmerz is the only one of those that I specifically think is scum, but I really just want it to be day two

why do you want it to be day two for dreal but not for the rest in this bracket?

more evidence that makes me think he's not particularly trying to understand people

[GuiltyLion]

finally, VaHalla is very much town for me. I'm not voting there today. I think kraska is the only scum voting it though.

[GuiltyLion]

dreal

- I don't want to keep scumreading you if I am mistaken about your slot, this is a reach out. Please explain why you weren't voting a useful wagon at deadline yesterday and why you then didn't vote me despite apparently preferring my lynch to Nos'. And also when it was that I became a more preferred lynch to Nos, considering that at 1865 it was the reverse and also saying this

kraska, I askya, can you get back on nos?
the wagon composition of GL gives me huge pause

and this

nos is the bigger wagon pretty sure, especially if you consider my vote on there

which then became this

well I was about to check to see how long until deadling and if I had time to watch a movie (subway !) , would have preferred GL to nos but at least something got done

Well my philosophy is that when it comes to being a subject of a leading wagon when there are multiples with viability is that unless I read the player as hard town and think they (as a player in the game or with their role or both) are more important to keep in the game than myself, I'm going to vote one of the viable counterwagons to myself because I *know* my alignment as town and it's the most pro-town play

One of the things I do sometimes, and did here because it works to do so with the viable counterwagon scenario, is to voice my willingness to vote a wagon before voting it (only if I'm actually willing to vote it, however) and see what happens to things after that (as a way to generate reads.) When I did it with the nos wagon I did at the time feel more okay to vote him than when I came back to the thread in a bit and saw how things were going.

as far as not voting you or another useful wagon, I got cold feet on you, which now of course I wish I hadn't because not only of course we have nos's flip, but the way his wagon formed at the end there (with such ease, mainly) would have had me voting you instead of him as the deadline approached if I'd been around and he'd not been lynched when I came back

to elaborate, in general, when one of my scumreads is not a viable wagon, I just have to go at each specific circumstance and wagon with gut-feelings and best judgement and comfort, and specifically with nos, the more it came to it, the less comfortable I was

I think 2 wagons between GL and wisdom would be very good at this point

wait sorry I actually think this deserves a bit more of a response than what I already gave

this is not a satisfying answer. I asked you
a) why you weren't voting a wagon that had a chance of going through
b) why you didn't vote me, especially as opposed to Nos since you said you preferred my lynch
c) when specifically did I become more of a preferred lynch than Nos

as far as I can tell, once you trim out the fat about your general mafia philosophy, these are your answers:
a) I got cold feet on GL
b) I got cold feet on GL
c) after Nos was lynched because the Nos wagon formed with such ease

the problem is a&b aren't really much of an actual answer to my question, more of just a restatement of what happened, and c) is a pretty shitty answer as the Nos wagon obviously formed with ease as there was literally just a few hours left to deadline and everyone online was basically forced to vote him because it was the only lynch that could go through - DUE IN NO SMALL PART to the fact that you weren't voting me.

I feel like you didn't really grapple with the spirit of my question which is - explain what the fuck you were doing with your vote on Alisae - and instead just gave like a surface level recap that amounted to "I didn't want to vote GL but once Nos was lynched I wish I had voted GL". Which is like the entire thing I was trying to get you to explain to begin with.

[GuiltyLion]

like - one last thought - VaHalla stood around and white-knighted the leading GL and Nos wagons, but that was because they explicitly explained that they were opposed to the two wagons and didn't think either were a good lynch. I don't really see that as particularly scummy.

drealz pussyfooted around giving a firm, dedicated read on either of our slots or the wagons, often actively encouraging both wagons at times leading up to the deadline, but then hopped off my wagon somewhat inexplicably and then said he regretted doing that with no real explanation as to why he hopped off to begin with. If it was meant as an elaborate play to get better reads, he hasn't explained these reads or transparently acted on them.

[GuiltyLion]

to be clear i'm not like CONVINCED that dreal is scum but I really don't see him doing anything town and I wish he would play more on the level instead of not-doing-things or doing-bizarre-things and then just diving into general mafia theory whenever he's asked to explain. I full-throatedly support morph's ask for a readslist

[GuiltyLion]

I think it's pretty evident that kraska is the scummiest person on the Nos wagon

no, whats pretty evident is youre scum
kraska is obvtown

why do you even bother to respond

[GuiltyLion]

kraska is obvtown

kraska

- while you're explaining why you're not voting Wisdom, can you also explain whether you think objectively that you are obvtown here?

[GuiltyLion]

in fact
VOTE: bins

i like this more than valhalla,

though theyre prolly buddies anyway

noticed this on reread

what town says this about the leading wagon while they also move their vote off of the leading wagon. what reason does Wisdom have to think VaHalla and Bins are buddies. he's just encouraging the mislynch while being off of it

gl, implosion, bins

izi

remember on D1 when Wisdom agreed with WWF that gl/implosion/nos were all "working together this game"? Then nos flips green, no re-evaluation from Wis, just plug and chug the next available potential mislynch and move on. And what happened to VaHalla who is probably buddies with Bins?

[GuiltyLion]

@GL

What is your

current

read of Bins? Follow up question may follow

town

[GuiltyLion]

GL could you go into more detail about why you're townreading valhalla? I scanned your iso for discussion of him and don't see much there prior to last night. Maybe my ctl-f search skills aren't up to the task.

it's a few things
1) their posts about me today imply to me that they have a town role pm
2) I've played with and caught scum!Dunn a few times before and I don't get any of the scum vibes from him in this game. Particularly, I feel when he's scum he pushes people for surface level reasons that he obviously doesn't believe (the biggest one being "you aren't reading the game"), yet here he's not even really pushed anyone that hard which to me also looks more like townplay
3) I feel scum are pushing to lynch him today

can you give your reasons for scumreading him and I can maybe argue with you as to why those probably aren't indicative?

[GuiltyLion]

gl, implosion, bins

izi

also, how does this team engineer the Nos mislynch yesterday? where were bins and implosion saving me when I could have very easily been the D1 lynch? Are we just lucky that town!dreal "got cold feet" and made me suddenly impossible to lynch at deadline?

[GuiltyLion]

kraska are you ignoring my questions to you? Why aren't you voting Wisdom if you can't see his posts coming from town!Wisdom, and do you agree with him that you are obvtown this game?

[GuiltyLion]

@GL

What is your

current

read of Bins? Follow up question may follow

town

Isn't Bins doing exactly the reason why you fos dreamlz?

uh, no? Bins is giving reads this game and answering questions directly. She made a last effort case for her scumread OT yesterday before being V/LA at deadline. None of the reasons I'm FOSing drealz seem to apply to her play

[GuiltyLion]

i'm not trying to work with you and have no particular beliefs about your alignment. i'm annoyed with you and i'm being an asshole about it because i hate this game

so replace the fuck out and go the fuck away

chill

also LOL at you getting mad at someone for "stubbornness to engage" when you won't even give a readslist

p-edit mindmeld

[GuiltyLion]

how am I supposed to give a readslist when I don't fucking have one

you could uh

try to throw your best guesses out there and explain why you don't have reads on the people you don't have reads on

[GuiltyLion]

scum just use weakly convicted voiced thoughts as something to pick apart and attack

and that's how you catch them!

You don't catch them by not doing anything, not giving reads, and not explaining yourself and just talking about general vague mafia philosophy

[GuiltyLion]

like, several people are explicitly asking you for a readslist, I'd say the consensus opinion that it'd be helpful for you to give one by nature makes it helpful to town

[GuiltyLion]

bc one pingy post is not enough to make me completely discard a read and the way wisdom modified the read not long after is not congruent with what i expect from scumwisdom

tell me more about what you normally expect from scum!Wisdom

[GuiltyLion]

1. I think drealmerz vote progression was he is switching between one side to another so it doesn't shout "I am scum guessing where the lynch is coming" but "I am genuinely thinking and I am nervous as well, but I'm going to go with this."

yah but then at crunch time he voted Alisae which was an abstain

and then when I asked him why he didn't vote me he said he got cold feet, but now he's looking at me again today? What reasons caused the cold feet and why do they not apply anymore?

[GuiltyLion]

how is refusing to answer the question "who of these 5 do you think is most likely town" to a point of being an asshole troll to avoid answering the question, town?

I mean weren't you doing the same exact "refuse to answer a question" thing here?

Who is scum between chiaotzu, gl, kraska?

I don't know

Who is scum between chiaotzu, gl, kraska?

does scum have to be in there? can't it be all 3?

this is a weird question

[GuiltyLion]

ceph, when the nos wagon was forming (and you were supposedly thinking nos was most likely scum out of 12 other players)

also I really don't like this casual shade in the parenthesis here considering you were advocating a Nos lynch yesterday and said repeatedly that you were thinking about voting it. I'm not sure that it's scummy shade but dude please try to not throw shit for the sake of just throwing shit.

did you ever answer my question about whether you learned anything from saying that you were going to vote Nos and then not voting him?

my hesitation with a full-on dreal scumread is
a) I don't see why a team with dreal makes that Alisae kill
b) he's more flailing around with his pushes/scumreads rather than seemingly doing anything to advance an agenda
c) I'm not sure how to feel about implosion tunneling on him, I liked it on D1 but for D2 I'd like to see implosion join me on Wisdom tbh

[GuiltyLion]

Anything you want to discuss about our reasons for voting valhalla, GL?

I thought about it but don't really have anything at the moment - you yourself acknowledged it could be a playstyle issue and that's kind of how I see it. I agree with Bins assessment that the VaHalla slot doesn't feel like it's doing anything calculated here and I think scum!VaHa wouldn't have had trouble simply jumping on any of the deadline lynches for reasons similar to what you said was your own town thought process.

I've been thinking though that if I am wrong somewhere in how I'm viewing this game, the VaHa slot is a good wagon to be wrong about as I have a number of townreads suspecting them and it might be a blind spot in my view of the game state right now.

@gl

a) why does any team, other than her obviously being town?
b) not every scum player does things intentionally to further an angle. i usually don't, i just do whatever feels town

a) dunno, but it does seem like it'd be an easy way to take town!dreal out of the game both by losing direction and furthering suspicion on him, and I feel scum!dreal would have wanted to keep playing up his Alisae SR
b) fair I guess, but I feel like scum have to eventually try to push mislynches or else they get caught by coasting or wagons forming on their buddies

[GuiltyLion]

gl why do you ask me questions and never follow up on them?

I have been following up? I asked you about why you weren't voting Wisdom when you called out one of his bad posts, you said his read and subsequent reversal didn't feel like what you expect from scum!Wisdom, I asked you what you normally expect from scum!Wisdom. That's a follow-up right there

I thought your last reply about your view of scum!Wisdom felt surprisingly honest so I'm still trying to digest it, I don't have an immediate response. I ask questions about things that look odd to me but if the answer is relatively satisfying or safe then I'm not gonna keep escalating just for the sake of escalating.

[GuiltyLion]

I don't understand this bit? Are you saying that scum-Valhalla would have pushed one of the other viable wagons and called it "saving my townreads" rather than express a townread and let things proceed however they proceed? I can see pushing a wagon that's going to flip town on day 1 if it was going to save a scumbuddy.

Yeah, I guess that's my thought. I don't see what scum!Valhalla gains by standing on the side so aggressively and obviously - I don't buy the 'no lynches are good for scum' explanation - so in my opinion the simplest explanation is that they're town that didn't like the wagons.

It's true that if drealz is town then there's no need to push anything at deadline, but I guess I just feel like their steadfast refusal to compromise vote was genuine. If drealz is town it'd be real easy for scum to jump on him then or even right now and they're still generally refusing to look in that direction.

[GuiltyLion]

I like most of implosion's reads and again it feels like he's trying to be honest and fair in his assessment of what players are doing (paranoia part of me says perhaps trying too hard?), but my main problem with it is it's a fence-sitty post on two of the more relevant wagons today (VaHa and Wisdom). It's like implosion is willing to let a lynch go through on either of these players ("couldn't read them") despite not necessarily scumreading them, and yet simultaneously also give himself room to vote them if the wagon is not quite about to go through

@implosion -
as it stands right now would you

support

or

oppose

a VaHa lynch?
as it stands right now would you

support

or

oppose

a Wisdom lynch?

if you really can't answer these questions yet, then you should get more involved in sorting these players

[GuiltyLion]

I took a look at your Stats wiki Wisdom, gotta say I enjoyed this bit

Also, I'm known to hard tunnel on people. Very hard. Though I think that I'm now better at controlling it.

Finally: My playstyle varies from game to game. It can be completely different sometimes. It all depends on the playerlist and on my mood. Do NOT assume that you know how "usual Town-Wisdom" looks, you'll only bring about destructive results.

a) if I am to take your advice and assume I do not know how "usual Town-Wisdom" looks, then why is my scumread on you bad?
b) if you are town, you should stop tunneling and maybe do more things

[GuiltyLion]

and I just remembered when you said this to kraska

yeah, get your nos mislynch then get turbolynched after the townflip

why did you say today that kraska obvtown again

[GuiltyLion]

I meant that youre pushing this mislynch and that youll hang tomorrow for it
But it was more terrorizing for you to sheep me as im not really scumreading you

sorry you're right, I missed this post

mehhhhhh

I still don't like this VaHa wagon but I like almost everyone voting it which means something is off

I'm here
{Bins, Cephrir, morph, Realeo}
{VaHa, Chiao}
{kraska, implosion}
{dreal, Wisdom}

[GuiltyLion]

also lol quoting what i wrote in my wiki years ago

doesn't change the fact that your reasons for tunneling me are still garbo

[GuiltyLion]

I'm not gonna play a game of nuh-uh uh-huh so I'm officially done talking to you unless you start re-evaluating or you want to join together and lynch someone below my second tier

[GuiltyLion]

We're vt - the song is live and learn

I thought you were softing cop with an inno on me earlier today

[GuiltyLion]

why not join on wisdom to create a viable CW?

this is the best post you've made all game

[GuiltyLion]

dreal I said that not-sarcastically ftr, though I prob didn't need to say it at all I'm just bored at work and killing time

[GuiltyLion]

yeah we definitely shouldn't be lynching anyone without more input from implosion

[GuiltyLion]

plus if he were a jester he could have self-hammered at L-1

i feel like drealm is like "well he's not groupscum but I don't townread his play" so he's trying to come up with weird other explanations for VaHa instead of just seeing him as probably town. not saying that's alignment-indicative but it's silly logic

[GuiltyLion]

yup, that was a hammer: me, dreal, vaha, bins, ceph, realeo

I don't really like the execution of the hammer because it was unannounced and cuts off discussion prematurely but honestly still feel pretty good about Wisdom being scum and the composition of this wagon. don't think scum would need to quickhammer a town!Wis there so I don't see the Realeo hammer as scummy.

if this flips scum I'd look at implosion and then kraska first and foremost as possible buddies, I feel dreal's play is looking progressively more and more town and still don't like implosion dancing around both VaHa and Wis wagons

if this flips town I'm gonna have to do a full reset and reread so I can't really give productive twilight reads on that scenario

the constant read I have is that I think morph/ceph/realeo are all town regardless of Wis' alignment. those are my three bank townreads atm.

[GuiltyLion]

Guiltylion talk to me what we doing here boss Wisdom is as good as ded now

yeah to elaborate on this I say given a Wisdom scumflip implosion's gotta be the focus of interest tomorrow. Wisdom scumreading him could be some casual distancing and I gave many reasons on why I was scumreading Wisdom throughout D1 and D2 that implosion should have picked up on and engaged with when he made his "what's the case on Wisdom" post

the kraska/wisdom interactions are strange but I don't immediately think scum-scum? it's possible but the way he was egging her onto me instead of Nos yesterday seems a bit too explicit to be cajoling a buddy to join a different wagon. I'll think about it, I do think kraska's push on VaHa wasn't good and meant to be a distraction today.

[GuiltyLion]

Didn't like the reasoning of his vote given he put Valhalla at L-1.

it was bad reasoning but I'm having a hard time believing that a scum!Chiao who is already coasting and not providing much content would unabashedly sheep the leading wagon like that, especially if VaHa is town. Given the nonchalance I'd buy that as a bus vote before I'd buy it as a scum on a mislynch vote.

[GuiltyLion]

I've re-read the whole post multiple times and this part of it makes it sound like you know wisdom is flipping town

you say you think wisdom is flipping scum, but then say you don't think scum QHs town here

it's like you're using the entire situation to validate a TR for realeo more than anything - whereas I find the hammer very scummy

and it seems to me you avoid the consideration of scum hammering scum?

a) no it doesn't
b) agree with your third point I suppose but that's mostly because I just think Realeo is town. I also don't see why scum!Realeo would quickhammer his buddy like that either - seems like it'd be more logical to give intent to give a buddy a chance to bullshit a plausible fakeclaim to try to survive or out PRs

[GuiltyLion]

it's not about scum not NEEDing to QH town here either, but about if they felt they could get away with it

I mean I feel Wisdom was gonna get lynched anyway, if he's a mislynch and Realeo is scum then why attract extra attention with an unannounced quickhammer instead of just sitting around and playing the slow game. especially given that Realeo isn't particularly scumread.

[GuiltyLion]

GL tomorrow for me if wisdom flips town, no question

lol

if I were scum and I knew Wisdom were town I'd be a lot more careful about my twilight posting

[GuiltyLion]

also if I were scum I'd probably just start bullshitting that YOU know he's town and you're setting up a mislynch on me on D3 by trying to spin my posts as if _I_ know that he's town

but I'm not doing that, because, you know, town role pm

[GuiltyLion]

It's also really worrying me that literally all the dead townies were scumreading implosion.

"really" worrying? I mean scum have only directly killed 1 of the 3 dead townies so far. Do you think scum pushed Nos or Wisdom in part because they were scumreading implosion? If so, then who specifically do you think may have been doing that and why?

[GuiltyLion]

especially with his play before that.

Bins can you elaborate on what you didn't like about Realeo's D2 play prior to the hammer

[GuiltyLion]

stop whiteknighting i get bad feels

I do agree with this though, I was cool with it when I thought they were softing an inno on me but now it's getting a little excessive and I'm kinda suspicious of anyone townreading me to that degree

[GuiltyLion]

I honestly was planning on rereading D1 in light of the Wisdom flip and the NK but there was no NK and I haven't had time to reread yet. I'm missing a strong scumread right now, it's frustrating that kraska replaced out because now GR is stuck with having to defend her play

I'll come back with fresh eyes tomorrow. I think I'm looking for scum in VaHa, implosion, Chiao, GR, maybe dreal. I was tempted to ask him about not opening today by pushing on me as he promised, but kinda curious what other people think about that because part of me still thinks it's sort of townie?

[GuiltyLion]

I'll get to this in 4-5 hours

[GuiltyLion]

Bins can you elaborate on what you didn't like about Realeo's D2 play prior to the hammer

and to answer GL i meant sort of trolling and with the whole erection thing i think everyone was sort of like wtf on realeo..

so much so we could put the hammer past him

i dont like it

I mean, Ceph did not declare L-1. He must be scum for being ignorant, right?

yeah but unlike you ceph has sort have been not caring all game and also he was voting wisdom previously

you've just been trolling

see my problem with this is when you look past the random erection/trolling nonsense in Realeo's ISO, he is actually asking some insightful/probing questions and attempting (or at least, emulating an attempt) to game-solve. But I feel like you're glossing over or purposefully ignoring that to push on the NAI/bizarre stuff in his ISO, which he rightly pointed out is just a small part of everything he's posted this game. It doesn't feel like you're approaching sorting him on an intellectually honest level here.

[GuiltyLion]

it is. That's why I think it's weird for you to look for scum on a wagon you supported yourself. Unless you know for a fact Valhalla is town, that doesn't make sense to me.
Can you at least answer what was town about their claim?

I like this post/question a lot. The mentality of "it's weird that Bins is scumhunting on the Wisdom wagon over the VaHa wagon while townreading VaHa" is one that I don't think scum!Chiao would come to easily.

Also we don't have to call it a "townblock" but I like everyone in Realeo's townblock

New and improved GL reads:

town: {Ceph, morph, Realeo}
probtown: {dreal, Chiao}
meh: {VaHa, implosion}
scummy: {Bins, Game Replacement}

Things I'd like to hear
-The VaHa case on Chiao
-A GR case on Bins

VOTE: Bins
I could join the implosion wagon too at the moment but I feel like he's townier than Bins and this vote is a spicier one for the gamestate

[GuiltyLion]

But Bins's stances look like they've actually been evolving in response to new information, rather than just changing with what's convenient. For instance her vote right now is more or less a vanity vote on you. That's not especially beneficial for scum, although it could conceivably be scum waiting to put down a higher-impact vote but I have other reasons to townread bins (I remember having strong reasons d1 + her tone has generally seemed natural since then) and I haven't had strong towntells from chiao (iirc there was something at one point but it was fairly weak)

this case for town!Bins is not especially good. Can you reinforce it with a better argument?

[GuiltyLion]

yeah, I'm most waffley on implosion and VaHa. I think one of them is town with stale reads and the other is scum.

I do feel like there are some compelling points for VaHa town, really the only thing I especially don't like is their Chiao scumread. I noticed Alisae was scumreading both Bins and implosion while townreading VaHa though and the implosion townread on Bins is inscrutable to me at the moment. implosion is generally on the nose at writing posts I agree with but more and more I get the sense that they're not necessarily posts that make him town.

Bins being scum makes much of the game make more sense to me than it did previously, I think she was the scum in my blindspot. and I didn't like kraska and I haven't liked Vedith's posts on replacing in.

[GuiltyLion]

but im a weak investigative with 1 inno (this should be obvious lol)

did you get this inno on N1 or N2? You are claiming it's Cephrir, right?

I don't really like this claim as it reads to me like it could easily be a scum fakeclaim, but I'm fine with not lynching Bins today.

VOTE: Game Replacement
want to join here?

also, I fail to see how my read flips are "convenient". You could also say it would be convenient reads if I were still scumreading Chiao/dreal or if I scumread VaHa or Realeo. Nearly everyone outside of morph/Ceph/kraskaGameReplacement(somehow) has fallen under significant suspicion at some point these past three game days.

[GuiltyLion]

I skimmed Bins D2 early day ISO and I think it's consistent with a WWF inno on N1 at least, so +points to her being town

also found this

nos was a wagon driven by scum - it had to be. we had so many better wagons and somehow the nos wagon went through last minute. maybe as a counterwagon.

the scum pushing Nos was kraska

[GuiltyLion]

kraskaReplacement is scum and implosion's probably scum. Third scum I think is in VaHa/dreal/Chiao but that pool is real tough to sort

[GuiltyLion]

i feel like i can explain all of this with "this player just doesn't play the way you want him to."

maybe that's always true. idk. a lot of the points being made against chia seem a bit weak and forced.

this

Chiao's posting to me looks like town giving off surface level "scumtells", and I feel like there's no charity in the way VaHa and implosion are framing it. Like I disagree with implosion that "testing the waters" is inherently scummy, I think lost/confused town is just as likely to throw something out there and then abandon it if it doesn't stick. Some scum

like

to sell their scumreads and write cases, when done well it makes them look good and gives them things to post.

also I kinda townread Chiao's jump on the VaHa wagon because I don't think scum like to flagrantly sheep early in the day like that. Way easier to do that at deadline. It's bizarre to suggest that Chiao would have "absolved himself of all liability" on a VaHa townflip, I think his vote would have invited a ton of attention on himself on a townflip - as seen in how it's currently resulted in attention on himself even without a VaHa flip.

[GuiltyLion]

actually you know the D1 kraska-VaHa interactions make a ton of sense as scum-scum. one scumreads the other, the other townreads them back and tries to talk them down. I've pulled that move before

[GuiltyLion]

yeah on further review I'm game to lynch any of implosion/VaHa/GameReplacement and happy to defer to whichever one Ceph/morph/Bins prefer the most. Not voting anyone else unless there's an insanely good case on them

[GuiltyLion]

implosion do you have a thought/response to Ceph and I finding your Chiao case pretty unconvincing

[GuiltyLion]

I honestly don't have much to comment on so hit me up if there are questions for me. I have been scumreading kraska the entire game, still think GameReplacement is a good lynch, and also the conftown is voting it so, not sure what to do here other than wait for the non-GR voters to come around

VaHa what's your current read on that slot

[GuiltyLion]

We townread Kraska

why? I remember you originally townread them D1 because "you didn't think scum!kraska would lock horns with us", but then you were almost "mislynched" (FYPOV obviously) on D2, with kraska being a vote. You really think Chiaotzu is more likely to be scum just nonchalantly hopping on the wagon as the L-1 vote? Why does that make sense as a move to "absolve himself" of accountability?

kraska's main two pushes this game were Nos on D1 and you on D2. From your perspective that'd be two town pushes. Why the townread? Are you townreading GR's content?

[GuiltyLion]

There was an implicit assumption that Valhalla (as a unit, not as 2 players) and Alisae have a similar meta baseline, and that kraska scumreading them for basically doing opposite things was contradictory.

no, this is a misunderstanding of my point.

kraska scumread VaHa because "being non-entities on page 7 was not a good look", and tried to use VaHa meta to back it up.

Alisae scumread implosion because of similar reasoning, that flying under the radar was a sign of implosion's scumgame

Okay I'll read the Zach drama when I get into a better headspace and can concentrate on it.

flying completely under my radar currently

dont think i've ever played with implosion either

If I told you that is somewhat related to his scumgame
would that interest you?

at which point kraska objected with this implosion scumread and began scumreading Alisae:

@implosion
A combination of alisae's over confidence beginning to feel unnatural at this point
And

flying completely under my radar currently

dont think i've ever played with implosion either

If I told you that is somewhat related to his scumgame
would that interest you?

this weird shade hes throwing into the air when we're only one rl day into day 1

Um yeah
I'm shading Implosion because I don't feel good about him.
I don't townread him.

And like
What does shading even mean?
I'm sorry
I just find the word to be so useless
oh no
I'm shading my scumreads
hewlp ;~;

dude u called someone scum for not being memorable/impactful enough when we were still 1 rl day into day1
not to mention that your point on implosion is not congruent at all with what ive seen him to be like as town. in both games implosion was on the table at multiple points in the games for not being assertive/present enough and he was town in both
i dont buy this

the thing that bothered me was a complete lack of self-awareness in how kraska made the VaHa push but then objected to Alisae's implosion push. It's transparent hypocrisy - which in itself is not a scumtell, but something definitely worth probing as to why kraska disagreed with Alisae's implosion scumread to the extent that she did:

The way I see it is,
Alisae says he has a meta scumread on implosion, and you disagree because your implosion meta is different than his.

Aren't you curious to see what implosion is gonna say in response to both of these claims? And my main question is why is Alisae's implosion read disingenuous in a way that your Zach read is not?

and I don't believe I ever felt like kraska satisfactorily addressed this. The scumread/disagreement with Alisae was my main problem with kraska, not the VaHa read or the implosion reads themselves.

[GuiltyLion]

seemingly careful analysis but actually cloaked posturing and positioning with lots of "feelers" put out to test which way the wind is blowing that come across as theorizings and discourse of solving with others

dude I have put myself out there far more than you have this entire game. I stuck my neck out for that Wisdom lynch, I hard townread Nos at deadline D1, I pushed you multiple times to talk about players in this game instead of your diatribes about mafia philosophy on late D1 and early D2. This is quite frankly complete bullshit

[GuiltyLion]

Would anyone guess why I switched? I want to see if people saw what I see.

I don't see what you see

[GuiltyLion]

I'm not saying you don't genuinely feel that way, but you can feel genuinely about something completely wrong

Which posts were "feelers"? I promise you I can give 3 examples of me taking hard stances for every "feeler" that you quote

[GuiltyLion]

I've got a bad feeling about it though and I wish GR would start posting...anything really... Looking at kraska iso I can see why I townread them early. Maybe it was her behavior around Valhalla that did it? I'm not sure. It's hard to get into that moment again.

how would that behavior look to you if both Valhalla and kraska were scum together?

[GuiltyLion]

Strong stances don't equal town stances.

sure. But my point was just drealz saying I'm "posturing" and putting out "feelers" to assess town opinion is flatly wrong

[GuiltyLion]

clearly you're going to hold that stance whether you're town or scum though

Not necessarily, there are a number of stances I could also take such as "why would that be scummy" or "how have I been doing that more than [x] or [y] has been doing" - which to be fair I sort of did wrt to you yourself but that was mostly to get you to see that it's a really bad reason to be scumreading me because I honestly believe it describes your play better than it does mine [other than your garbage oddball scumreads on Alisae and then Ceph, the two scumreads you've expressed the most this game]

so you getting all huffy about me sharing that view openly is odd

especially considering when joined with your criticism of me not sharing much

it really annoys me when people I think are town scumread me for shitty untrue reasons. if you're going to keep scumreading me because "it could all be an act", and if I -still- can't get traction on a GR lynch, then I don't feel good about our chances about winning this game.

[GuiltyLion]

it is possible for GL to be scum and not intentionally doing what you say he's doing

also true

and like self-meta here so heavy grain of salt but when I'm scum I'm a lot more tunnely and aggressive in pushing 1v1s and hammering NAI points over and over again as if they are actually AI. I'd say this game has been somewhere in between my towniest of town games and my scummiest of scum games but frankly I waffle and put out feelers and take non-committal stances far more as town than I do as scum - and yet I don't even think I've done it much this game - so pushing me as scum for it is just annoying on all sorts of levels.

[GuiltyLion]

I think the oddball scumread on Ceph would not be something scum!drealz would fake, I think your play has felt a genuinely game-solvey in D2 and D3, and you've asked a number of questions that reflect a town mindset. Also like I said earlier today I think scum!dreal would have pushed me right out the gate today. Like your reads and some of your posts are aggravatingly illogical but that vibes more town than calculated scum agenda. I also think there are better candidates for scum and you being town explains the late D1 wagon situation and the NK/NK-attempts better than you being scum would.

[GuiltyLion]

when I make points about scum!drealz I don't mean "scum!dreal would/wouldn't do [x] because of my knowledge of dreal and dreal meta", more like "scum!dreal would/wouldn't do [x] because of my reasoning about likely alignment indicative explanations/expectations for their behavior given posts and the situation in this game". I generally say scum!whoever to indicate their hypothetical alignment, not a statement about their personality and the way they play mafia holistically.

[GuiltyLion]

like when I say "scum!drealz wouldn't fake a scumread on Ceph" it's because I think it's unlikely and bizarre for any scum in your situation to double down on claiming to scumread a player that's been 'confirmed' innocent by two different players. I'm not saying you are more or less likely to do that when you're scum or when you're town, rather I don't think it occurs to

most

players to do that and I think the paranoia about being questioned/pressured over such a stubborn and incorrect read gives any scum player a much heavier incentive to just be like "whoops I missed that claim, nvm Ceph is conftown".

One could try to argue that "scum!drealz would know he could get townread for scumreading a conf-town" but I try to stick with simple explanations and prefer not to poison the well with wine. I don't think most scum players go through the hoops to try to do things that are non-sensical/wrong/easily-refuted just to dumbtell for towncred. I don't think it is likely to even occur as a potential move or a smart way forward for them, therefore I think you doing it is genuine

[GuiltyLion]

I am confused that Val defended GR but not dreamlz. I think that inconsistency implies that a maximum of 1 scum is inside Val/Gr. That action does not make senses for !scum Val and !scum Gr like why do you wk your partner in that dynamic. Too risky.

I can see this line of reasoning, but would scum!Val with scum!GR be able to pull off a convincing switch to a bus vote at this point? Like, is the opposite course of action actually possible if they're scum here? If you're scum and you're townreading your buddy all game, you don't have much option but to keep rolling with the townread when they start to get seriously wagoned.

If VaHa were town I think they'd start to be a bit more questioning of their kraska townread than they have been here. But if you're really on this track then I'd lynch VaHa before I lynched Chiao. Chiao just altogether feels like a bad wagon especially when it's being pitched as a counterwagon to kraska/GR. GR still hasn't given reads on the notable VaHa/Chiao slots here today either

Another thing that bothers me is that a lot of VaHa's early day 1 ISO is just talking to kraska more than anyone else. Check for yourself, there's tons of replies to kraska and kraska-centered content and not a lot on most of the other slots in the game.

[GuiltyLion]

vedith is the sort of town player who will replace into the game, be getting heat, and be like "oh fuck this and these guys they can lose I don't care" and leave and not care about doing damage to his team

can you point me to a game or past experience with Vedith that leads you to believe this?

[GuiltyLion]

it read directly like town using what they saw as "meta" rather than scum faking it

which part did?

Zach and Dunn still being complete nonentities on page 7 is not a good look. Are you keeping the vote on morph because a scumread transpired? How serious was the vote to begin with?

like...im working with what little info is there, knowing you were here when the morph/nacho stuff escalated and that you had nothing of substance to say about anything feels off
also since when do u and dunn not make any moves before you coordinate, what do you even want to discuss with dunn?

VOTE: VA-11 Hall-A this isnt town zach at all. ever since attention was switched to their slot, they have shown no interest in doing anything other than defend themselves. also that attempt at deflection is terrible "why me not wisdom?"

this isnt congruent at all with what i know zach to be like. like...zero reads up till now from townzach? no way
also tone reading and townhunting is zach's thing and he wouldnt dismiss everything we have till now as rvs
plus zach and dunn just dont strike me as the type of pair to care to synchronize their posting lol

kraska's play this game is like when you sit down but the chair is too fucking low so you just sort of fall in an unexpected way

lmao i was reconsidering my vote on you before reaching this post but you botched this up and now i really think youre scum
i know you know exactly why i find you off here, you even said you understand my concern, and yet for some reason you are still expending more energy on making me look/feel silly for pointing fingers at you than on pushing for anything or initiating interactions yourself. i was giving you benefit of the doubt bc you said you think highly of the playerlist and i know i had shitty openings as town in past games for being wary of the tables im playing with. but you just memeing me and making that post reminds of (cw: meta) the game where you did the same as scum when i felt something was off about you.
also your posts insinuate that you think im misguided town, but this

If you scumread WWF/wisdom at this point I'm going to love watching how you play this game

is how you react to wisdom and wwf's votes on me? if you were town i dont think you would be talking about them in third person like this. you would have interacted directly with them and poked them about their votes even if you think theyre town
and that case on oil tycoon again looks like youre just content with satiating people's requests for content from you not like you're trying to convince anyone to join you

i realise post 387 probably looks a lot like confbias to others but i think ive played enough with town zach to know he's not town here and im feeling really confident about this rn

So I don't know why you've treated my meta so weirdly, kraska..my confusion with your meta argument was that you have pieces that are not accurate at all. Like town!zach gives reads? So scum zach cant fake them? There's no bearing for that. This is what I mean by impulsive.. the conclusions you come to are too erratic for scum here imo... but how do you arrive at them? Literally your interaction with our slot is the only thing pinging us. Is your vote still here for lack of a better option or are you going to clarify this

"town!zach gives reads? So scum zach cant fake them?" i mean... if u pick my points on you apart, none of them are particularly incriminating or uncharacteristic of you on their own..., but it was amalgam of all the things i mentioned together that made me feel something is off about you

none of this looks particularly genuine or impossible to fake to me, regardless of your alignment.

[GuiltyLion]

I was just in a game with Vedith where he was getting mislynched in LYLO, the writing was on the wall, and he still took the time to call out the (correct) scumteam and cockily pat himself on the back about it

[GuiltyLion]

he was in from the beginning, but I don't see why it's a meaningful distinction. He said in thread that he finished catching up in 3390

IMO we're talking about it because before the flip it's helpful to have it more clear why you are townreading him or fighting against the wagon

[GuiltyLion]

hello! I am here

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: RadiantCowbells

[GuiltyLion]

no worries tbh

[GuiltyLion]

best scum replace-in I've ever seen firsthand is ETL in Town of Helen a couple years back. We had lynched her partner and had the slot dead to rights on associatives and she was basically at L-1. She took advantage of the fact that it was a closed bastard setup and claimed that she had already confirmed herself and acted town so convincingly that she pushed the lynch onto an obvious lynchbait slot and got shot by the SK that night (who could have aligned with the mafia via role mechanics if the SK was targeted by mafia instead)

[GuiltyLion]

actually that SK was Vedith! small world

[GuiltyLion]

back in the good old days when Mini 13p games only went 55 pages

[GuiltyLion]

I mean it should be obvious that if we lynch chiaotzu and he's scum, valhalla is town

... should it? I don't think bussing today would be out of the question, and in fact one thing that's wonky for my view of the gamestate right now is figuring out why it doesn't seem like any scum are bussing a scum!GR

also ugh implosion is making me want to townread him again

[GuiltyLion]

Guilty Lion what prompted the reminiscence about ETL's scum replace-in?

mostly just the talk about whether a replacement could be so-town as to get the GR slot to an unlynchable status, dreal saying he didn't want to read "RC puke", plus it was late and I was bored

[GuiltyLion]

I'm like here

{Ceph, morph} <- never lynching
{Bins} <- likely town bc claimed investigative but if she lives to LYLO and can't give helpful results I'd take a hard look
{dreal, Chiao, Realeo} <- feel good about these three being town, don't want to lynch today, but worried there might be a scum in here playing a strong game (the "horrific" scenario as morph put it)
{implosion} <- can never feel good about a read on him either way
{GR, VaHa} <- scummiest and who'd I want to lynch today

to those that think GR is town and lynchbait (mainly VaHa?), are there any scum voting him today or are scum holding off on voting him?

[GuiltyLion]

it's not true in the specific case of valhalla+chiaotzu - how you think otherwise is very suspect to me

can you explain to me why you think Va/Chiao as partners is impossible then? I don't remember VaHa pushing Chiao at all on D1 which to me would be the strongest indicator of not-partners

[GuiltyLion]

also, I said on D2 that I thought Chiao casually L-1ing VaHa was much more likely to be scum-on-scum than it is scum-on-town

[GuiltyLion]

because he's been touting that lynch for a while and to me it makes absolutely no sense that s/s does that the time and manner in which he has been

why? like why does it make "absolutely no sense" in this manner? ESPECIALLY if town!GR, it's a great move to just parade a partner lynch while town is distracted elsewhere and set you up in a better spot to finish with strong distancing. It's been made clear in the thread on D3 that morph/Ceph/I aren't very interested in a Chiao lynch, so VaHa can beat the drum all day and probably not see it through because the two most town players aren't sold on it. The only other person trying to drive the lynch is implosion and he hasn't really been present enough in the thread to change minds.

And even if Chiao does wind up lynched, then it just makes VaHa look good and me look worse which puts them in a good spot for D4. Like, when you have more than 2 scum, you need to be distancing/preparing to bus at some point, especially if there's a decent townblock that isn't getting lynched.

[GuiltyLion]

the team I'm most paranoid of right now actually is a dreal/Chiao/VaHa team

i don't think it's likely or especially more plausible than GR being scum, but THAT team is in a good position to win right here and there's nothing other than the towniness of the individual players that makes me able to rule it out

[GuiltyLion]

to me this is just a scum post trying to undermine obvious more-likelyhoods - huge pings here

you really don't see any town-motive in me trying to figure out why you're ruling out a (FMPOV) entirely possible associative?

what's my scum angle here? What does scum!GL gain in this gamestate from saying "hey VaHa and Chiao could be partners"? Who are my buddies in that scenario?

[GuiltyLion]

AND dreal, would you say scum!Me had already planned to make this argument on D2 and earlier today when I posted this?

Didn't like the reasoning of his vote given he put Valhalla at L-1.

it was bad reasoning but I'm having a hard time believing that a scum!Chiao who is already coasting and not providing much content would unabashedly sheep the leading wagon like that, especially if VaHa is town. Given the nonchalance I'd buy that as a bus vote before I'd buy it as a scum on a mislynch vote.

also I kinda townread Chiao's jump on the VaHa wagon because I don't think scum like to flagrantly sheep early in the day like that. Way easier to do that at deadline. It's bizarre to suggest that Chiao would have "absolved himself of all liability" on a VaHa townflip, I think his vote would have invited a ton of attention on himself on a townflip - as seen in how it's currently resulted in attention on himself even without a VaHa flip.

like IMO saying Chiao likely scum if VaHa town seems pretty shallow and bad

[GuiltyLion]

your position is confusing as shit

my position is that you're both scum

[GuiltyLion]

and that saying "kraska's meta read on me was genuine" is really not especially supported by anything in kraska's ISO. If it is, you need to identify what specifically about her posts here was outside the range of kraska's scumgame

[GuiltyLion]

my position is that you're scumbuds with whichever one is scum

whichever one of Kraska/VaHa is scum, or whichever one of Chiao/VaHa is scum?

[GuiltyLion]

Her meta read on me was genuine

I'm just trying to get you to explain WHY you believe this

because I'm sitting here and it doesn't look genuine at all, and then you saying it was genuine also doesn't look genuine, so that's double red flags

[GuiltyLion]

There was a point when kraska was getting lynched

when?

[GuiltyLion]

I'm wondering if VaHa is actually the best lynch today. The constant WKing on kraska/GR is really skeeving me out. My scumread on GR hasn't lessened, but if we lynch GR and it flips town then I'd want to lynch VaHa, and if we lynch GR and it flips scum then I'd want to lynch VaHa, so maybe it's better to lynch VaHa first.

[GuiltyLion]

if we lynch GR and it flips town then I'd want to lynch VaHa, and if we lynch GR and it flips scum then I'd want to lynch VaHa, so maybe it's better to lynch VaHa first.

actually I guess this same argument would apply if you swap the names of GR and VaHa though

i just want to flip them both

[GuiltyLion]

chiaotzu or kraska...

GL-Chiao I think is a totally plausible way to read the game, but why is GL-kraska likely whereas Chiao-VaHa is impossible? like your standards for associatives seem pretty sloppy

[GuiltyLion]

I mean it should be obvious that if we lynch

chiaotzu

GameReplacment and he's scum,

valhalla

GL is town

[GuiltyLion]

bud, I'm not trying to make myself look town, I'm just being town

[GuiltyLion]

day one




earlier into day one

this didn't happen though. kraska got to 4 votes then you said "am I gonna have to WK this" and the votes disappeared. kraska was never actually in danger of being lynched IMO

[GuiltyLion]

GL is doing nothing but trying to make himself look town

also like, please correct me if I'm wrong, but I think it should be transparently obvious that you, morph, and myself have been the only people really trying to gamesolve toDay. saying I'm "doing nothing" is a joke

[GuiltyLion]

GL is doing nothing but trying to make himself look town

GL+kraska is likely because ^

I actually do want to push on this though

so in your view, VaHa is town if Chiao is scum because VaHa is not trying to make themselves look town on a Chiao flip either way?

Why is "not trying to make yourself look town" an indicative reason to townread someone?

[GuiltyLion]

eh actually when I reread that question it kinda makes sense

[GuiltyLion]

what do you call what implosion did?

what did implosion do?

[GuiltyLion]

dreal you don't need to answer that question I think I see what you're saying now, but I do feel that whether someone is trying to look town or not is more of indulging in WIFOM than it is actually predictive of someone's alignment. In my opinion everyone should try to look town and it's bad play regardless of your wincon to not do it.

[GuiltyLion]

and GL, if I'm wrong, pls don't take it personally!

I'm not taking it personally, sorry if it comes off that way! all good. I am however taking it seriously though as a threat to lose this game which is why I'm fighting it head on every time you keep throwing it out there