NY214: Project Pinecone (Game over! Town wins!)

[Jingle]

Good is a subjective descriptor of a moral or qualitative state perceived to desirable. It is a lesser qualitative degree than best and opposite to bad.

Who should I lynch?

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Did a hollow voice say fool yet?

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I recognize three of those people from games and one from sitechat.

Is A50 playing the game or lurking?

[Jingle]

Also, I feel it's only fair to warn you all. Pine gave me explicit permission to troll this game.

Just looked at A50's ISO. Making plans looks like town, plans seem stupid. Needs more context to sort.

Can confirm I visited someone last night. Will not confirm whom or what I visited, mostly because I've already closed that PM and it's all the way in my inbox. Like, two whole clicks. That's never gonna happen.

My guess from setup spec perspective is Gamma is probscum, but should definitely be left alive til late as he's a source of valuable valuable lunchmeats regardless of alignments.

Do you have a reason for thinking the zzzyzaxus lynch is bad, or is it just a bad mouthfeel thing?

[Jingle]

Are any of the deathpool actually cased, or is this consensus based shenaynaygans?

[Jingle]

Aight, lemme get this straight. People suspect the existence of an SK because "Dram's role PM." Which, hilariously bad English in general, btw, and more indicative of multiball than 3rd party if that is indicative at all. Taly's ISO can answer all of my questions, but also makes my eyeparts bleed while trying to read it. The following is a list of claims/clears as understood by the thread at large.

Innocents:
10. Chickadee- Vengeful with an innocent result
14. Raskolnikov- Owns Fruit
16. Nos- Investimagative who owns fruit

Pos EV Roles (Assuming Town):
2. MagnaofIllusion- 1/2 Loyal FV
3. Ausuka- 2/2 Loyal FV
7. Gamma Emerald- Investimagative
4. brassherald- Activated BP
5. the worst- NK Immune Miller Vig

Neutral EV Roles (Assuming Town)
9. Jingle - Visitor
1. 49- Useless, boring role

The great unwashed, yearning to be free:
17. Profii-
8. Skygazer-
15. Taly-
11. xyzzy-
12. HeWhoSwims-

If all the claims are town, this game is breakable on Night 1. Therefore, not all the claims are town. The Gemerald is prolly a tracker of some sort, which makes sense with all of the visiting and fruit vending and whatnot. Quick question claim wise, did Gemerald claim that the worst killed dram or did the worst claim the kill after Gemerald claimed to know whodoneit?

HWS is a lurker seems like a shitty case, unless someone can provide me a reason why that makes him scum. I could maybe get behind the A50 wagon based on "Let's completely waste the utility of the FV roles" but I admittedly didn't read most of that ISO after checking to see if A50 was actually putting some thought into setup. I'd lynch the everliving fuck out of Taly given the opportunity, especially because through all of the shit I read the conclusion is apparently "Scum is in the unclaimed players other than me that haven't been cleared and the single VT claim". Skygazer is giving me slight townfeels based on the protection of zizzy, and the protection of zizzy means I don't particularly want to lynch there either. I should probably read some posts by profii at some point. We have a little less than two days to reach a consensus before Pine slams the door shut in our face.

Is this an accurate representation of the game state?

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My experience with SK TW is that he pledges his fealty to me and works in my favor, so down with leashing him btw. Especially since he's probably gonna eat a bullet anyway given that dram's buddies can't risk him killing them.

[Jingle]

Introdasting. Virtually a hardclear on HA. I can dig it.

[Jingle]

Innocents:
10. Chickadee- Vengeful with an innocent result
14. Raskolnikov- Owns Fruit
16. Nos- Investimagative who owns fruit
7. Gamma Emerald- Investimagative


Pos EV Roles (Assuming Town):
2. MagnaofIllusion- 1/2 Loyal FV
3. Ausuka- 2/2 Loyal FV
4. brassherald- Activated BP
5. the worst- NK Immune Miller Vig

Neutral EV Roles (Assuming Town)
9. Jingle - Visitor
1. 49- Useless, boring role

The great unwashed, yearning to be free:
17. Profii-
8. Skygazer-
15. Taly-
11. xyzzy-
12. HeWhoSwims-

harold is the only claimed kill prevention and we're missing a kill. Have we explored the rabbit hole of who profits on his death yet?

[Jingle]

roleblocker (who then should claim)

:thorface:

We don't need more claims, TYVM.

Especially not potential protective/investigative claims.

I'm going to go to bed. And tomorrow I'll look at this again and throw down my vote. If someone wants to cut down on the amount of work I've gotta do, they can analyze bh's stances at EoD D1, write a towncase on Taly, or write coherent scumcases on any of the other potential lynch targets.

[Jingle]

Finally someone who refers to me as Harold

I think it's a bad idea to count all innocents as "never lynch", won't there be 2 or 3 or even 4 innos a night if Gamma, Andrius, Ausuka and moi are all alive?

An excellent questions! The clears from today are the most reliable, but not unimpeachable based on the possibility of fakeclaiming. As such, none of them are worth considering until we have hard information about the people what cleared them. Gemerald being a detective fits better with multiball, but the number of investigation claims is difficult to balance anyway. Similarly the worst isn't a good use of our time because Scumteam Drama can't afford to keep him alive. If it is multiball as I expect, Scumteam drama now probably has fewer members than scumteam Mighty Ducks, meaning that once town is significantly reduced (which could be quickly if 2kpn) they will be easy pickings.

Pretty sure I'm Harold. Though, I never had a bar mitzvah and I distinctly remember Harold having one in Hey Arnold.

I'm not Jewish.

You are Harold, and I was actually phonetically butchering your name. Sorry, I didn't mean to imply a religious creed. We all know werewolves are all members of pagan religions.

Hell, like you said

Rask

,

HWS

isn't the worst offender here with what I said but where are they?

Again I spent 10 days in Spain so if you could understand the lack of activity that'd be great =] since then I've been between working and being out with friends and family. Trust me, I'm reading, I just wanna have some time while posting like now.

Also rip it was too good to be true.
I should re read Gazer

Can confirm that Mr. SwimmerMan's absence is probably nongamespecific.

..."Dram's role PM." Which, hilariously bad English in general

How dare you, sir! I challenge you to fisticuffs!

Just for modding consistency, this should probably be "I am to challenging you to being the fisticuffs with me!"

Jingle! Hello!

Sorry guys I’ll get to this. I’m out of town for an interview at the moment and have a busy day today.


So this is a shameless prod dodge!

Hey Chick! Good luck on the interview!

[Jingle]

Town loyal would make sense, if your target doesn't get fruit then they're on the other team.

Non Normal, thus impossible.

My guess from setup spec perspective is Gamma is probscum, but should definitely be left alive til late as he's a source of valuable valuable lunchmeats regardless of alignments.

Uhhmm what are you even saying here

Original spec was based on you being tracker/watcher ish or variant. TW linked the claim convo, and now I'm convinced your slot is town unless the worst is groupscum. The ability for you to get guilties on othergroupscum means that even if there was a guilty result on you I'd want to leave you around today at least.

What does "profii is selling himself to the rope" mean?

no but really i already thought of that
VERY unlikely 2 scumteam kills did not go through
unless you are speccing TW as a multiball member

That was the implication, yes. TW would be a wolf.

Oh gosh whyyyyy *facedesks*

Because two teams of three explains our claim situation quite well. It doesn't matter yet though, because the first scumteam (scumteam drama) now needs to take out a member of scumteam Mighty Ducks in order to prevent themselves from being steamrolled. Theworst is pretty much the best shot for them regardless of what his role actually is.

If town, he will continue shooting them. He's already proven himself to have better reads than most this game, and he's not going to be a lynch anytime soon.
If SK, he's going to stick around until they've already lost the game unless they deal with him. He's leashed and working for town and thus we have no reason not to let him put bullet holes in other teams.
If Multiball, they are outnumbered now by the worst's team, which means even if they manage to duck town they lose to being outnumbered in the endgame, and their wincon specifically means no chance of a joint win.

tl;dr- my multiball spec, while important to note in case things change, isn't worth shit for this dayphase. I'm just getting it out there now, because it's an integral part of my understanding of the game and I want to make sure I haven't missed anything important.

[Jingle]

It's not illegal if you're in international waters.

[Jingle]

I really should read this thread at some point. Maybe tomorrow.

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Anyway.

HWS behavior is very null if your description is accurate.

I remember thinking MoI was likely to actually be a loyal fruit vendor based on the way claims happened (One of the few parts of the thread I actually read). On the other hand, it's likely that fruit vendor results aren't trustworthy at this point if both of your roles are accurate, so losing him isn't the worst thing in the world.

I kind of want to no lynch and see what happens. If Aus, MoI, GE are all town, scum has the opportunity to let them continue investigating or shoot them. Shooting them confirms at least their D1 targets in my mind. GE has presumably at least one possible guilty result he can find, and thus is probably the best protect out of the three. We are unlikely to narrow down the protection further, meaning that scum has to shoot in the kill pool to go doctor hunting, and I doubt that scum has three methods of fucking with loyal fruit vendors, so at least one of the two fruit targets tonight should be a real result IF both vendors are town.

Thoughts?

[Jingle]

Yeah, vig should hold shot.

Honestly tho, doccing you is better than tw/Aus/MoI because those are all high information flips. I do expect some form of scum tracker to be able to fuck with the results of fruit vendors.

If you're left alone long enough you can get a confirmed guilty on at least one scum. Your innos are pretty worthless atm to be sure, but that doesn't mean much.

If I were doc, I'd probably rng the protect. 60% weight on GE, 20% on Aus and 20% on MoI.

[Jingle]

Why is no lynch favourable to HWS lynch?

I cannot answer this question. And the plan is very contingent on the worst being willing to holster.

I am not of the opinion that your loud visitor was necessarily the doctor. They could just as easily have been a tracker. Further, if both you and MoI are town and they have one tracker, they should still try to kill you.

Oh... Given that fruits seem to vary by night but remain the same between you and MoI, claims should happen like this:

Fruit/No Fruit in the first 3 days of the phase. Loud/no loud claim after that. Fruit vendors claim which fruit recipient was their target after that. Fruit recipient of loud claims what fruit. Fruit recipient of no loud claims what fruit.

[Jingle]

how am I a high information flip? and why on earth would you protect MOI???

Um... All I see is two similar investigatives in what appears to be a 1v1 with a doctor out there and two missing nightkills. If we can milk this for additional investigative results and make this game mechanically solveable, we do that.

Further, I haven't read the thread enough to have reads, so I don't really want to evaluate you/MoI. I'll get around to it at some point, but finding ways to break setups is really my forte, so I'm going to apply that to what I have read.

And, you're a high information flip because that means your fruit vends become solid information if town and your CC of MoI becomes solid information if town. If Gamma is shot, on the other hand, we as town get no solid information.

[Jingle]

Yeah, but loud doc confirms you and gamma as town when they flip, which means even if scum go doc hunting, they're narrowing the pool of potential mislynches and confing both of the most dangerous roles to them.

Loud tracker doesn't conf you, though it does imply town.

Additional, unknown loud role (a possibility, although a slight one that should most definitely not claim) doesn't conf anyone.

With this in mind, you probably rate a higher percentage than MoI (I hadn't picked up on the pseudoconf on you), but again, as long as the protective uses their own best judgement and reads I'm happy to let them continue as they have been.

Mostly, by using my plan, we're making scum shoot the people that we would be lynching anyway.

I would like confirmation from TW and everyone to try to find holes in the plan before we implement it, though, as I am not infallible.

[Jingle]

Is anyone familiar enough with action resolution?

Lynch *someone*
Let MoI fruit
Shoot MoI

?

Probably far too much trust of MoI and TW in that tbh

The problem there is if MoI is town there is no reason to trust the result either way. MoI can't point at the person who should have recieved fruit in the case of a guilty, and we still have the possible tracker to give a possible fake innocent.

[Jingle]

We're pushing the scum to shoot for the doc. Basically, this is a slightly nerfed version of Follow the Cop.

[Jingle]

The idea is that scum CANNOT risk their kill being stopped, because the longer they fail to make a kill the more impact your investigations actually have, and therefore will shoot outside of the protection pool. If they shoot inside and miss they're boned. We should therefore focus on obfuscating the doc in the scummy players, thereby eliminating scummy players should they miss. The names remaining should contain the scum.

If both you and MoI are town (which I find likely based solely on the fact that MoI claimed to be loyal first) we should very quickly get to a point where we have enough "At least one of these players is town" pairs to gamesolve.

Literally the only person I could lynch today would be MoI at this point, but as I said I don't think it's unreasonable setup wise to have both of you as town, especially if scum has both a jailkeeper and a tracker variant.

[Jingle]

Nah I think mechanically if moi is lynched tomorrow the game is almost necessarily won
Either he's scum or he's town and 2 get townfirmed from it
Ironically if hes town it's actually technically better
As for scum moi it calls Andynos into question but still don't really see scum winning that esp if last is got today
Given loud protect is another unclaimed conftown and worst comes to worst we could use chick venge I think game game should be unlosable with safest course tbh

?

Chick venge is a conftown lynch to have a shot at Chick shooting scum. That's never a good option. We are literally discussing lynching conftown to have them shoot after scum, when we could just lynch for scum.

Proposed setup:

Vanilla Townie x4
Town Some Kind of Investigative

Town Hider

Town

Protective

(possibly loud)
Town

Detective

Town

LFV

Town Odd Night

LFV

Town Activated BP
Town Visitor
Town Vengeful

Vig/SK

Mafia Prime-Number-Night Jailkeeper

Mafia Tracker (possibly loud)
Mafia Goon? x2

So, we have a false guilty for the FVs, a false guilty or SK for the Detective, a way for mafia to protect themselves from the vig/SK, a way for scum to find the protective role, a way for scum to make false guilties, a way for scum to make false innocents, two conditional kill stops and a protective.

On town's end of things we have a pair of investigatives that are likely to give a single innocent early but untrustworthy results as the game goes on AND provide enough Wifom to be able to lynch each other, an investigative that can only get guilties and even then only semi reliably, and a doctor that can't give innocent results because there are two other methods of stopping kills.

The bolded are the confirmable (or at least close enough to confirmable) roles.

Innocents wise, we have trustworthy innocents on 3 players so far and conditional innocents on two more, correct me if I'm wrong.

We can trust Chicka/Nos/Raskolnikov

because

of the way the FV thing played out.

We can trust Aus IF the protective is loud AND BH didn't self protect last night.

GE is probably town based on the way HitAlt and TheWorst fumbled around with the detective claim, but is not mechanically cleared.

BH isn't cleared, by virtue of the fact that none of our claimed investigations are capable of giving hard innocents.

So... Between 3 and 4 mechanical town players depending on our protective.

After remembering the additional investigate claim from an actual clear, Nos should actually be the highest priority target, and should claim if they have any usable results. If they don't, though, we're still damn near close to balanced with two wildcard scumslots.

So, please, tell me what specifically the problem with attempting to use our roles to solve the game is here?

[Jingle]

I think HWS is probably demotivated scum I've been looking for

HWS being absent from the thread is not a valid scumtell in this case. I cannot explain this.

[Jingle]

VOTE: HeWhoSwims
'self resolving and I don't care to sort it' is my middle name!
also gonna be ballsier with my NK tonight bc ya sry Rask you've lived a long life but it's over

Shooting Rask is a scumclaim.

[Jingle]

No lynching and no vigging at this point just kills off either aus or a conftown, you were saying scum have to kill in our lynchpool like ???

Chick thing is side note given nos and last resort if maybe moi flips scum, given nos hasn't gone into his thing

If scum shoot at the investigatives:

High chance that a successful protection happens. This would be why the protective should protect within the investigatives with weights on how likely they are to be town and how useful their role is to the town.

If scum shoot at the innocents:

We lose one cleared player in return for a chance at possibly 4 investigation results. This is incredibly high EV for town and only stupid scum would think they can win the game by playing whack a mole with innocent results.

If scum shoot for the doc:
The pool of likely doc candidates is almost exactly the pool of likely scum candidates. The only name that's being floated as scum who can't be doc is MoI.

tl;dr: the doctor is probably in the lynchpool, scum's best chance at winning the game is shooting said doctor, and any chance we have at making that goal harder is going to make town's job easier.

[Jingle]

Scum almost assuredly don't have 2 trackers, therefore one of MoI and Aus should be reliable if you assume their roles are true on the nights they go through. In addition, whatever nos is is apparently capable of giving innos and GE is capable of giving at least one guilty.

[Jingle]

I think no lynching might be one of the few things that maintain scum wincon at all here
When you have a pool of innos you try to

lynch scum before that pool dies out

, vigshots benefit us in this case as well. Stagnation really doesn't

I don't want to out the 2 people I think are highest chance of doc here but I doubt HWS based on his play and level of engagement so far

When you have a pool of innos you try to maintain or increase the number until scum mechanically can't win. We still have all of our claimed investigation roles alive, which means scum, in shooting to kill innos, is asking to have even more people investigated.

And discussing who may or may not be doctor or why we aren't lynching a specific player in the lynchpool is incredibly antitown until this is determined one way or the other, so... Let's just put a lid on that.

[Jingle]

Scumpool assuming FruitVends from N1 are valid:


*

GE

Ausuka

brassherald

the worst

MagnaofIllusion
Skygazer
Jingle
HeWhoSwims
Taly
Profii

Bolded probtown by Loud modifier.
Underlined probtown by fruit information.
Italicized not groupscum
Asterisk probtown by confirming worst as having killed.

We have 13 alive, which means 7 deaths til a possible 3v3. Assuming the worst makes only protown shots, that means 4 in the pool of likely scum tomorrow, 2 in the pool the following day, and 0 in the pool after that. If the worst is vig, we're in autowin already if we assume MoI town. Actually, we might be in autowin regardless if worst vig. Someone check the math there, because my brain is too fried to do so at the moment.

[Jingle]

N1 could also be bh/xyzzy, FWIW. That's why probtown, not conftown.

[Jingle]

also the person who vouched for Andy taking his inno claim on Chickadee seriously was.....

wait for it..........

MoI

This is somewhat less relevant though as there has to be a town in this chain somewhere
Chicktown with double moinos scum, or maybe nosandy town but mistaken in their chick vouch and moi going either way

I'm pretty sure someone said it was an inno. If it is not an inno, Nos needs to say so now. If it is not an inno, Nos is town and Nos doesn't retract, I will view that as gamethrowing and place Nos on my blacklist.

[Jingle]

The short answer is ge tw and moi are all sort of play based reads, but I don’t have any others because I kind of haven’t read the thread.

[Jingle]

Ah, but almost all of my friends are serial killers TW.

[Jingle]

Oh, and I guess HWS, but tbf that's more of a the description of his play from you is entirely null read, so I don't think that counts.

[Jingle]

Raskolnikov
Gamma Emerald
Chickadee
brassherald

Jingle
Taly

Skygazer
Nosferatu

T

h

e

w

o

r

s

t

profii
HeWhoSwims

MagnaofIllusion

This is kinda simplified but meh. Does anyone other than MOI have major problems with this?

The colors you used for the worst hurt my eyes.

Did someone ever crunch the numbers to see if the almost clears being town put us in autowin?

[Jingle]

I've been thinking, and I'm down with HWS/MoI mechanically.

Particularly if HWS was told what modifiers were in the game instead of just how many, MoI claiming loyal after double fruit but before Ausuka makes a lot of sense.

Also, the biggest part of defending HWS was concern that he was the doctor.

The only slot with possible tracker tells that I've seen from looking at claims is GE. GE is likely town. Therefore, GE is unlikely to be tracker.

Further, I don't see how HWS being informed actually narrows anything down for us. If we know the accurate number, scum have to claim an accurate number of modifiers or risk being outed. If HWS is scum, we won't know the accurate number, but rather whatever HWS wants us to think is the accurate number while he's alive. In the first case, scum just claims to match the accurate number, unless you assume that enough scum have already fakeclaimed to make it impossible for them to do so. In the second, the information is literally useless.

The only thing we can glean from HWS's role if we wait to massclaim modifiers is whether TW has a modifier. TW SK can't win without shooting obvtown at this point, and if he shoots obvtown we lynch him, so that information is useless. Or am I missing something again?

[Jingle]

Without knowing what mafia PRs could be I think it's hard to calculate autowin from a town POV. If the mafia know it's autowin they'll probs just concede though right?

Not if they're good at being mafia.

It's always worth the effort to see if town will snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

[Jingle]

jingle scares me so much and I kinda agree he smells like town here ;n;

VOTE: profii
/in

This post is vaguely offensive for some reason. I mean, what does town even smell like?

[Jingle]

I’m not concerned with the worst dying btw, when he keeps claiming that he’s gonna shoot one of our conftown.

[Jingle]

VOTE: HWS

I am down to clown.

[Jingle]

I'm pretty sure that's his way of saying "I'm not telling you who I will shoot." He knows that if he shoots Rask he'll get

hanged

.

I love you, Ausuka.

I mean, I am only semi-joking when I say that, but I feel recognition is deserved when someone uses hanged correctly and not "hung".

I am relatively certain that the correct conjugation is in fact murderlated.

[Jingle]

Just counted myself, and I think it is a hammer assuming there’s 13 alive. Coordinating night actions doesn’t work given fruit vendor. If the thread isn’t locked when I get to my desktop I’ll generate an unofficial vc.

[Jingle]

Either A: he’s shooting rask, B: he’s getting venged, or C: he’s already refused to claim his target. In any of these cases, there’s no point in trying to organize, because it’s just not going to matter.

[Jingle]

I have some idea of claims and flips

Anyone want to help me catch up?

Catching up is irrelephant.


Gazer may be conftownish despite being an moi target, more laterer.

[Jingle]

Nah uh. We have a one v one.

[Jingle]

Or rather, an even smaller scum pool.

[Jingle]

There are at most three scum players in the pool mechanically.

[Jingle]

Fwiw, that pool is rask, skygazer, irrelephant.

[Jingle]

Auauka, the question we need to ask will more likely be answered coming from you. Ask pine if you could choose a fruit type and if all fruit vendors send the same fruit type each night. If the answer to the former is true and the latter is inconclusive, not a cc. If the answer to the former is true and the latter is inconclusive 90% chance of being a cc. If the latter is confirmed, in either direction, we have our man metaphorically speaking.

[Jingle]

ok so I can believe it's sky or irrelephant but I don't think it could be raskolnikov. it's more likely Nosferatu is scum honestly imo and MOI didn't fruit vend n1.

Okay, so here's the why, now that I'm not phone posting.

You and MoI are confirmed to be fruit vendors, barring some severe gamethrowing on the part of town.

Technically, there's a chance that Rask went all out and claimed a banana after being visited night one without having received one because that's theoretically possible, so that's a mechanically he can be scum label.

Fruit vendors, by function of this being a normal game, all have to work identically. Therefore, MoI could not have knowledge of how the fruits would be distributed. Theoretically, that means that there are two options at this point. Either each fruit vendor sends unique fruit in a predetermined order, or the fruit vendors send fruit that are determined before game. In the second case, the odds that Pine duplicated flavors once but not twice border on the ludicrous. Supporting evidence: wrapping detail that is constant between three separate fruit recipients over the course of two nights.

Of course, it's possible that Nos guessed banana before Rask, but that's even less likely than Rask guessing FV from a track result fmpov, so Nos is out of the lynch pool at this point.

As for clementine and orange are close enough, orange was claimed before it was pointed out that fruit flavors matching was an important detail. It was not then changed, which it would have been if the orange had been a clementine. Skygazer also didn't change their claim from clementine to orange, which they would have if they were town adding a little flair to their claim.

Again, it's a normal game. PMs between roles must be consistent. Therefore, lynch Irrelephant, shoot Gazer, game over. Or viceversa.

HWS is town by virtue of being not one of the provably lying players in a position where only scum has an incentive to lie. But, not only that, but the players in question are in your larger scumpool, so there is no reason not to lynch in my proposed order instead of powerlynching HWS.

VOTE: Irrelephant

[Jingle]

I think scum is in {the worst, brassherald, Skygazer, Raskolnikov, Ausuka}

No offence but like


Are you reading the game?

Skygazer is probably a better lynch than Irrelephant if we're going ~down that road~? idk. Tracker makes sense if MOI slot was town I guess but feels kinda awkward if it isn't.

Tracker is still viable given town FV and Town Visitor, although that's FMPOV and thus useless to most of you. It's also the only way we're not in autowin already based on available information, so....

Play around ways the victory can be snatched from you. Don't get complacent. Therefore, we play assuming there is still some way for scum to turn this around, because complacent towns can easily snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

[Jingle]

VOTE: sky

[Jingle]

Oh, also HWS definitely claims his number of modifiers today.

[Jingle]

Yup.

I've linked to the youtube video several times on this account. If you want I can pull it up.

[Jingle]

Choice removed. My favorite post by me of any on this site:

Subject: Micro 292 - Jester Nightless [Game Over]

Wait for me!

No adventure is complete without Jingle hat and Jingle feet!

Greetings travellers, I am Jingle. Quick of wit I'm fast and nimble. Many jokes and many quips have passed between my funny lips. By poking fun and making merry our journeys won't be half as scary. So don't be timid; don't be nervous! Jingle's here, at your service!

Also, I think I have a breaking strategy. Massclaim social security numbers. I'll start:

8675309

Popcorn to TIP.

[Jingle]

Again, HWS needs to claim today. Just in case.

[Jingle]

UNVOTE:

Anyone wanna bet that Pine regrets inviting me to replace?

[Jingle]

You aren't conf, Nos.

I'm down for a HWS lynch after he claims his number of modifiers, btw. I still want the number of modifiers.

[Jingle]

"Ooohhhh he owns a knife", they said, "he must be a serial killer", they said. What and because I weigh the same as a duckling I must be a witch?!

You can't be a witch. We'd need an arsonist to be able to deal with a witch.

So... Why is Chick conftown again? Was it just the MoI-Nos chain or was there another component?

[Jingle]

Those are play reasons. Fuck play reasons, I'd have to read for that.

I'm gonna do another list of players and clears real quick with the new info.

Ausuka- Clear. Fuckit, this is my starting point. If Pine made a game with two Fruit Vendors on the scumteam and they've played this convincingly, I'm getting on a plane to go play bad bagpipe music in his front lawn to wake the baby right now.
brassherald- Only scum if Tracker.
the worst- Keeps shooting scum.
Skygazer-
Jingle- Visitor
Chickadee- Vengeclaim? Probclear
HeWhoSwims-
Raskolnikov- Clear.
Irrelephant11- Only scum if Multitasking tracker.
Nosferatu-

FV is probably pretty useless at this point, tbh. Scum is approaching the point of "guess that I received fruit out of the pool".

So ignoring the paranoia about Elephants and heralds, scum should be in {me, nos, sky, HWS}. Any objections to lynching in me, sky, HWS; TW shooting in me sky HWS; HWS claiming his number today, and Ausuka randing between lynchpool and holstering fruit to keep some utility alive there? Assuming, of course that Nos has shots left or whatever or at least claims to. You guys can deal with the paranoia reads if it's still necessary when we're all dead and gone.

[Jingle]

Doc isn't necessarily loud, remember. We just have a loud role confirmed. Could be the scumrole, which would explain no loud claims today, as the scum would've needed to shoot with their loud player and FV with MoI if elephants actually got fruit.

[Jingle]

Gamma claimed D1? I thought all the claims happened D2.

[Jingle]

Psychologist is literally useless at this point because there's only one scum left. Of course they'll have made the kill by now.

Good call. The only way remaining scum hasn't killed is if MoI did last night, in which case remaining scum has to be Irrelephant.

So nos should investigate the only possible guilty they can have at this point if they make it through the night, and if we have another protect and they get a guilty it's a 1v1.

N2 is the presumption for there being a protective, because no scum in their right minds shoots an unknown when there's two claimed investigatives unless they have a reason to expect a protective.

[Jingle]

I just don't deal with investigative cc's with multiple days until LYLO. It's a policy thing. Even scum fakeclaiming investigations gives me more to go on.

[Jingle]

Unless doc stops it.

[Jingle]

Look, I'm not saying Nos is town. I'm saying that IF Nos is town there is a slightly greater chance for +utility in keeping them alive than in keeping me alive. Or HWS. Or probably gazer.

We're your PoE pool. Now lynch and shoot in order of Use>Reads>Pure Random Chance.

Scum is underpowered with just 3 people. Possibly multiball, but if so we're royally fucked at this point.

[Jingle]

Assuming no No Lynches or successful protects, we have three more lynches and two more vig shots.

[Jingle]

Oh, MoI target was skygazer?

In that case, ignore keeping Nos around, Sky is already in PoE pool.

I thought it was elephants for some reason, in which case Nos could potentially out the possibility of my paranoia case being right if we left them alive tonight.

[Jingle]

Yes we do? Like, if anything I think a vengeful is SUPER useful in 3p lylo because normally you choose 1 player to kill but there you can kill the vengeful AND another player.

100%. Chick is our last lynch.

[Jingle]

*Still want HWS claim*

[Jingle]

Although, we're talking in circles at this point and when he does I'm gonna vote the largest wagon on the people who are viable lynch choices.

{me, Nos, HWS, Sky}

[Jingle]

He didn't claim the number of modifiers. If we discount the known loud, his number could out whether the last scum can multitask or not.

[Jingle]

He crumbed that he can figure out if you're an SK. Which is inane, because that literally doesn't matter at this point.

With the number, we can mass claim modifiers later, and if # of modifiers is the same as expected and no modifier claims are suspicious, then there is no multitasking and Elephants is conftown.

Without the number, we can't do that. Also, that should after I'm already dead, so... Someone do that.

[Jingle]

Yes, but we should probably shoot and lynch the people outside of the probtown pool.

Answering what you meant to ask, no. If scum is in the probtowns, they still have a chance, which is why I want an additional clear if possible. Our three conftown are TW, Rask, and Ausuka, functionally speaking. Scum has three remaining nightkills. If we assume all of my spec is correct and there's nothing wonky going on, that's autowin with the mysterious protective. If not, then making Irrelephant conftown can only help our chances of catching the possible scum in the probtowns.

[Jingle]

Oooh. Nos should target Chick if they survive today. Negative result confirms chick scum or Nos scum.

Not really worth staying Nos's lynch over, but it potentially saves us a phase cycle.

[Jingle]

Uh, isn’t me being a regular visitor a hard cc to hs’s Claim?

[Jingle]

Also, what is the biggest wagon atm?

VOTE: HWS

[Jingle]

VOTE: the worst

Time to lynch the town mvp I guess.

[Jingle]

It outright can’t be 4v4v9, btw. We’d be endgames rn.

[Jingle]

It outright can’t be 4v4v9, btw. We’d be endgames rn.

I thought of this, but read the role pms on page 1

That... Doesn't change anything.

There are 8 people alive. If there are 4 scum alive of the same faction, they cannot be lynched at this point and we've already lost. 10v4v3 is maybe possible, but not likely.

Loud modifier is almost certainly the doc who doesn't need to out at the moment.

To satisfy paranoia:

@mod: if there were two mafia teams would they be differentiated in their flips? Either through color or Mafia A/Mafia B or something?

[Jingle]

No, I meant the teams themselves.

Option is to be two mafias or a mafia and a werewolf team. I want to know if there are two mafias, would we be able to tell should a member of mafia A and a member of mafia B be killed.

[Jingle]

I mean... It's Rask.

It's been Rask for like three day phases.

[Jingle]

So, all of the players have to be flipped of the same team.

Therefore, in order for the game to be winnable for town with a 4 person scum team remaining, there has to be a town TW AND a town Chick. You're town. I'm town. So a four person scumteam would have to be Ausuka, bh, Nos, Irrelephant.

[Jingle]

But the vegetable version or the Relient K version?

[Jingle]

So who is your proposed scumteam, TW?

[Jingle]

UNVOTE:

[Jingle]

Ausuka - Confirmed Fruit Vendor - Claimed Loyal
brassherald - Claimed BP (Activated)
the worst - Claimed BP Vig
Jingle - Claimed Visitor
Chickadee - Claimed Vengeful
Raskolnikov - Loud Doc (Because Duh.)
Irrelephant11 - VT? Tracker?
Nosferatu - Psychologist

[Jingle]

Ausuka - Confirmed Fruit Vendor - Claimed Loyal
brassherald - Claimed BP (Activated)
the worst - Claimed BP Vig
Jingle - Claimed Visitor
Chickadee - Claimed Vengeful
Raskolnikov - Loud Doc (Because Duh.)
Irrelephant11 - VT? Tracker?
Nosferatu - Psychologist

13. Flubbernugget - Vanilla Townie (Lynched Day One)
6. dramonic - Mafia Prime-Number-Night Jailkeeper (Killed Night One)
11. xyzzy - Town Hider (Lynched Day Two)
1. Almost50 - Vanilla Townie (Killed Night Two)
17. Profii - Mafia Goon (Lynched Day Three)
2. Kokichi Oma - Mafia Disloyal Fruit Vendor (Killed Night Three)
7. Gamma Emerald - Town Detective (Killed Night Three)

So, setup wise we have:

VT x 3
Loud Doctor
Hider
Informed Town
Detective
Psychologist
Loyal Fruit Vendor
Visitor
Vengeful
Activated BP

Prime Night JK
Disloyal FV
Ninja
Goon

SK

So... Slightly more than a cop spread among three slots.

[Jingle]

Out of curiosity why would you think it would be a good idea to out who you thought a possible protective was?

Either it doesn't matter at this point or you were going to get shot anyway. I've been doing all I could to throw doc suspicion elsewhere, but there's literally no point anymore.

BTW, you made yourself obvious when you said HWS had no doc equity.

[Jingle]

Not enough town power for it to be 5v12, btw.

[Jingle]

Prime Night JK
Disloyal FV
Ninja
Goon

Prime night JK hits ~ every second night
Disloyal FV softfirms town and adds confusion and MoI accidentally played it as a negative utility

town has an ungated vig and a soft clearerer

I'm actually concerned this feels too townsided

Disloyal FV confirms nobody, and is a great fakeclaim.

The JK works Night 2, 3, 5 and 7. 2 and 3 are THE most important in this setup.

Detective and Psychologist add up to almost a cop.

Loyal FV is even less utility. Ninja is a cue to the scumteam for the detective to not be able to hit most of their players while the ninja lives. Psychologist, similarly, doesn't give innos but does fake guilty the venge. Honestly, the only thing that's even eyebrow raise worthy is the number of ways to stop nightkills.

Informed, Visitor, and Hider are all very limited utility.

BP is mitigated by the activated modifier.

There's just not enough there for it to be 5v12. Especially when 4v14 is the more likely balancewise for an 18p.

[Jingle]

Actually, no killing and arguing you got interfered with when the PoE became clear was SK you's out.

[Jingle]

Yeah, I literally can't put together a second scumteam that makes sense without TW in it. If it's a 3 person, we're gonna need to start somewhere. If it's a 4 person and Pine hasn't ended this, we might as well just get it over with.

VOTE: TW

[Jingle]

A second scumteam of >3 people with you in it has already won the game.

A second scumteam of 3 or less people without you in it has not been proposed, and I don't see a likely one.

5v12 doesn't make sense.

Nothing personal, duckbuddy, but if it looks like a Serial Killer and it quacks like a Serial Killer, it's probably a duck.

[Jingle]

Pfffft. Only nerds read rules.

Also, hypothetically speaking, how was your day?

[Jingle]

I don't. I also asked you for a proposed scumteam and you failed to answer. I'm putting the eggs in "You're an SK basket" because the other baskets look suspiciously like bear traps.

[Jingle]

There are 0 people who I could see being scum with nos though.

Like, if you're town and Nos is the solve, we're gonna win by lynching you then lynching Nos.

I see how it is. You'll answer the duck's hypothetical questions but not mine. Fine. See if I try to be nice again.

[Jingle]

I could maybe see a tinfoil you/Ausuka team. 3rd would be Irrelephant or BH. Both of those are very unlikely, though, so... Yeah. You're the SK. Thanks for winning the game for town

[Jingle]

Also, no shame in being mislynched if it wins the game for town.

[Jingle]

Nah, that's an alright choice. I just wanted to play up the "A successful doc protect makes the game unwinnable for scum" angle because them shooting for doc made it possible for them to close the net on themselves.

Also, I was absolutely sure that HWS was doc until Rask's post that 'classical doc tell' made it obvious HWS wasn't doc. At which point I realized rask wasn't really looking for a doc, was the doc, and was also the best scumkill of the potential docs. It's also why I went so hard in on posting reasoning that chasing innos was a bad idea, because it turned out that the doc WAS one of the innos, and that was a problem. Luckily, it didn't bite us in the ass.

[Jingle]

I'm actually seriously considering nominating the worst for a "Best Third Party" Scummy despite the wide margin of the Town win here. In this game, I think it's a solid case of the Serial Killer being too accurate for their own good.

I'd second. I mean, without the mechanics backing up him being an SK, I'd have still thought he was a vig at the endgame. Hell, even with the mechanics, there was still a little bit of doubt in my mind.

[Jingle]

As sent to pine

Thanks! I loved it. One of the better/more fun games I've played around here. I'll follow it hopefully.

If one of sky/chick is scum and TW is serial killer I'll demand the entire town will buy me drinks

Pay up yall!

But for real I loved this and I loved you all as a playerlist so THANKS FOR ALL EVERYONE!

Also TW you are one of my favourite players here if not #1 but can we please end up on the same faction again for once

Aight, but I'm drinking them too.

[Jingle]

That's kinda the point of the scum roles being such good fakeclaims, Rask. They were ALSO town AF. TW was a little screwed, but serial killers usually are, tbf.

[Jingle]

It's okay. He is the worst after all.