NY214: Project Pinecone (Game over! Town wins!)

[profii]

Remind why Inferno was saying he was mechanically town or whatever it was

[Raskolnikov]

From interactions he said basically the old "if you think that was bussing you're crazy"

[Ausuka]

Ok sure Rask I'll listen to you.

VOTE: HeWhoSwims

[the worst]

VOTE: HeWhoSwims
'self resolving and I don't care to sort it' is my middle name!
also gonna be ballsier with my NK tonight bc ya sry Rask you've lived a long life but it's over

[Raskolnikov]

I'm weighing actually lynching moi tbh even though by the book tomorrow is safest play
What actually could be the scumteam in a world where he and aus are town?
Literally there's almost just enough people left to even make it right?

[Raskolnikov]

Nah I think mechanically if moi is lynched tomorrow the game is almost necessarily won
Either he's scum or he's town and 2 get townfirmed from it
Ironically if hes town it's actually technically better
As for scum moi it calls Andynos into question but still don't really see scum winning that esp if last is got today
Given loud protect is another unclaimed conftown and worst comes to worst we could use chick venge I think game game should be unlosable with safest course tbh

[Raskolnikov]

Ftr my sky vote was somewhat a test
I think she probably should be treated a bit gently
Both her and Taly have this fire to defend themselves and a lot of attention paid to the game which makes those two a particularly good bet for town now especially

[Raskolnikov]

Err but ANYWAYS
I think HWS is probably demotivated scum I've been looking for
Profii despite his selfing still seems somewhat engaged/invested in game analysis here?

[Raskolnikov]

His metaphorical selfing, so to speak

[Chickadee]

I am very down for a HWS flip. I think by POE it's down to MOI HWS or Taly, and I can't quite convince myself to go for MOI or Taly. Obviously this means my POE is wrong somewhere, but I'm still left with one possibility for today, so let's wagon it.

VOTE: HeWhoSwims

Spoiler: no comments, and not a whole lot of breakdown here, but I left it

Chickadee
brassherald
Gamma Emerald
Raskolnikov
Ausuka
the worst
Skygazer
Nosferatu
Profii
Jingle

MagnaofIllusion
HeWhoSwims
Taly

[Jingle]

Nah I think mechanically if moi is lynched tomorrow the game is almost necessarily won
Either he's scum or he's town and 2 get townfirmed from it
Ironically if hes town it's actually technically better
As for scum moi it calls Andynos into question but still don't really see scum winning that esp if last is got today
Given loud protect is another unclaimed conftown and worst comes to worst we could use chick venge I think game game should be unlosable with safest course tbh

?

Chick venge is a conftown lynch to have a shot at Chick shooting scum. That's never a good option. We are literally discussing lynching conftown to have them shoot after scum, when we could just lynch for scum.

Proposed setup:

Vanilla Townie x4
Town Some Kind of Investigative

Town Hider

Town

Protective

(possibly loud)
Town

Detective

Town

LFV

Town Odd Night

LFV

Town Activated BP
Town Visitor
Town Vengeful

Vig/SK

Mafia Prime-Number-Night Jailkeeper

Mafia Tracker (possibly loud)
Mafia Goon? x2

So, we have a false guilty for the FVs, a false guilty or SK for the Detective, a way for mafia to protect themselves from the vig/SK, a way for scum to find the protective role, a way for scum to make false guilties, a way for scum to make false innocents, two conditional kill stops and a protective.

On town's end of things we have a pair of investigatives that are likely to give a single innocent early but untrustworthy results as the game goes on AND provide enough Wifom to be able to lynch each other, an investigative that can only get guilties and even then only semi reliably, and a doctor that can't give innocent results because there are two other methods of stopping kills.

The bolded are the confirmable (or at least close enough to confirmable) roles.

Innocents wise, we have trustworthy innocents on 3 players so far and conditional innocents on two more, correct me if I'm wrong.

We can trust Chicka/Nos/Raskolnikov

because

of the way the FV thing played out.

We can trust Aus IF the protective is loud AND BH didn't self protect last night.

GE is probably town based on the way HitAlt and TheWorst fumbled around with the detective claim, but is not mechanically cleared.

BH isn't cleared, by virtue of the fact that none of our claimed investigations are capable of giving hard innocents.

So... Between 3 and 4 mechanical town players depending on our protective.

After remembering the additional investigate claim from an actual clear, Nos should actually be the highest priority target, and should claim if they have any usable results. If they don't, though, we're still damn near close to balanced with two wildcard scumslots.

So, please, tell me what specifically the problem with attempting to use our roles to solve the game is here?

[Jingle]

I think HWS is probably demotivated scum I've been looking for

HWS being absent from the thread is not a valid scumtell in this case. I cannot explain this.

[Jingle]

VOTE: HeWhoSwims
'self resolving and I don't care to sort it' is my middle name!
also gonna be ballsier with my NK tonight bc ya sry Rask you've lived a long life but it's over

Shooting Rask is a scumclaim.

[Raskolnikov]

No lynching and no vigging at this point just kills off either aus or a conftown, you were saying scum have to kill in our lynchpool like ???

Chick thing is side note given nos and last resort if maybe moi flips scum, given nos hasn't gone into his thing

[Raskolnikov]

Jingle I'm on phone so maybe I've missed it
What is your spec for scumteam right now

[Raskolnikov]

Especially if scum have a loud tracker as you spec , because in that case No Lynch doesn't even give us a reliable inno going forward
So I'm really not getting how you think it helps our situation

[Raskolnikov]

I think brass also probably isn't scum tracked fake fruit because he had the detail of the fruit being wrapped for the record
Idk how reliable any further checks would be from this point however

[Raskolnikov]

I got spurs that jingle jangle jingle

[Jingle]

No lynching and no vigging at this point just kills off either aus or a conftown, you were saying scum have to kill in our lynchpool like ???

Chick thing is side note given nos and last resort if maybe moi flips scum, given nos hasn't gone into his thing

If scum shoot at the investigatives:

High chance that a successful protection happens. This would be why the protective should protect within the investigatives with weights on how likely they are to be town and how useful their role is to the town.

If scum shoot at the innocents:

We lose one cleared player in return for a chance at possibly 4 investigation results. This is incredibly high EV for town and only stupid scum would think they can win the game by playing whack a mole with innocent results.

If scum shoot for the doc:
The pool of likely doc candidates is almost exactly the pool of likely scum candidates. The only name that's being floated as scum who can't be doc is MoI.

tl;dr: the doctor is probably in the lynchpool, scum's best chance at winning the game is shooting said doctor, and any chance we have at making that goal harder is going to make town's job easier.

[Jingle]

Scum almost assuredly don't have 2 trackers, therefore one of MoI and Aus should be reliable if you assume their roles are true on the nights they go through. In addition, whatever nos is is apparently capable of giving innos and GE is capable of giving at least one guilty.

[Raskolnikov]

I think no lynching might be one of the few things that maintain scum wincon at all here
When you have a pool of innos you try to lynch scum before that pool dies out, vigshots benefit us in this case as well. Stagnation really doesn't

I don't want to out the 2 people I think are highest chance of doc here but I doubt HWS based on his play and level of engagement so far

[Raskolnikov]

If we lynch non-pr scum today remaining scum have to choose between taking actions and doing NK as a minor note as well
New normal rules are only multitasking modifiers can simult act and kill

[the worst]

I'd like it to be known that I very very seriously contemplated lolshooting MoI last night since I was almost certain I would not get to see d3 but then I realised how mad you'd all be and I was like... Ooohhhh

he makes a good Dram partner tho

[brassherald]

Why aren't we lynching profii?

[Raskolnikov]

can't bring myself to lynch someone who's asking for it
no but really he towntold a little and gamma said he didnt... try to kill anyone last night if I'm understanding what detective does?